Pest Risk Research Articles

Building Agricultural Resilience: Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation

Climate change has a significant impact on India's agriculture, influencing environmental conditions, agricultural techniques, and production. The term "climate-resilient agriculture" refers to technologies, methods, tools, and frameworks aimed at adapting to and mitigating the effects of climate change on agricultural production, food security, and livelihoods. Crop productivity and food security are greatly impacted by climate changes, which calls for creative agricultural methods to maintain food supply while reducing environmental damages. These difficulties are made worse by environmental changes and global population expansion, especially in developing countries. Technological advancements, such as geospatial analysis, and eco-friendly farming technologies, play a crucial role in optimizing land use and enhancing food security. Crop variety adaptation and management of seed, water, land, livestock, soil and nutrients, pest management, risk management, and post-harvest management are examples of effective agricultural adaptation strategies. Technological developments like geographic analysis.

Identifying key monitoring areas for tree insect pest risks in China under climate change.

Climate change can exacerbate pest population growth, posing significant threats to ecosystem functions and services, social development, and food security. Risk assessment is a valuable tool for effective pest management that identifies potential pest expansion and ecosystem dispersal patterns. We applied a habitat suitability model coupled with priority protection planning software to determine key monitoring areas (KMA) for tree insect pest risks under climate change and used forest ecoregions and nature reserves to assess the ecological risk of insect pest invasion. Finally, we collated the prevention and control measures for reducing future pest invasions. The KMA for tree insect pests in our current and future climate is mainly concentrated in eastern and southern China. However, with climate change, the KMA gradually expands from southeastern to northeastern China. In the current and future climate scenarios, ecoregions requiring high monitoring levels were restricted to the eastern and southern coastal areas of China, and nature reserves requiring the highest monitoring levels were mainly distributed in southeastern China. Tree insect pest invasion assessment using ecoregions and nature reserves identified that future climates increase the risk of pest invasions in forest ecoregions and nature reserves, especially in northeastern China. The increased risk and severity of tree insect pest invasions require implementing monitoring and preventative measures in these areas. We effectively assessed the pest invasion risks using forest ecoregions and nature reserves under climate change. Our assessments suggest that monitoring and early prevention should focus on southeastern and northeastern China.

Managing Trees Species of High Social and Cultural Value: Forest Manager Attitudes towards Pest and Disease Risks to Oak in Britain

Managing Trees Species of High Social and Cultural Value: Forest Manager Attitudes towards Pest and Disease Risks to Oak in Britain

Crop Rotation and Diversification in China: Enhancing Sustainable Agriculture and Resilience

Crop rotation and diversification (CRD) are crucial strategies in sustainable agriculture, offering multiple benefits to both farmers and the environment. By alternating crops or introducing diverse plant species, CRD practices improve soil fertility, reduce pest populations, and enhance nutrient availability. For example, legume-based rotations increase soil nitrogen levels through biological nitrogen fixation, reducing the need for synthetic fertilizers. Moreover, these practices promote more efficient water and nutrient use, reducing the reliance on synthetic fertilizers and minimizing the risk of pests and diseases. This review synthesizes findings from recent research on the role of CRD in enhancing sustainable agriculture and resilience, highlighting the potential contributions of these practices towards climate change mitigation and adaptation. Specific crop rotation systems, such as the cereal–legume rotation in temperate regions and the intercropping of maize with beans in tropical environments, are reviewed to provide a comprehensive understanding of their applicability in different agroecological contexts. The review also addresses the challenges related to implementing CRD practices, such as market demand and knowledge transfer, and suggests potential solutions to encourage broader adoption. Lastly, the potential environmental benefits, including carbon sequestration and reduced greenhouse gas emissions, are discussed, highlighting the role of CRD in building resilient agricultural systems. Collectively, this review paper emphasizes the importance of CRD methods as sustainable agricultural practices and provides key insights for researchers and farmers to effectively integrate these practices into farming systems.

Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton, 1856 Control Methods in the Lankaran-Astara Region

Research has been carried out on the biology and ecology of Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton. This is one of the main pests of lemon and tangerine gardens in Azerbaijan. To combat this pest, various agricultural methods and chemicals were used. The most effective combinations have been identified. A detailed description is given in the work. Guidelines for pest risk assessment have been developed, emphasizing measures to protect citrus orchards from heavy infestation by Phyllocnistis citrella.

Prioritizing management actions for invasive non-native plants through expert-based knowledge and species distribution models

Given the high number of non-native plants that are being introduced worldwide and the time required to process formal pest risk analyses, a framework for the prioritization of management actions is urgently required. We therefore propose a framework for a replicable and standardized prioritization for management actions (eradication, control and monitoring) of invasive non-native plants, combining expert knowledge, current and future climatic suitability estimated by species distribution models (SDMs), clustering and ordination techniques. Based on expert consultation and using Italy as case study, invasive non-native plant species were selected and three categories of management actions were identified: eradication, control and containment, and monitoring. Finally, two further classes of priorities were proposed for each of the management actions: “high” and “low” priority. Overall, SDMs highlighted a high and very high suitability for Continental and Mediterranean bioregions for most invasive plants. Cluster analysis revealed three distinct clusters with varying levels of suitability for the Italian bioregions. Cluster 1 exhibited a higher suitability across all Italian bioregions, whereas non-native plants grouped in Cluster 2 predominantly featured high suitability in Mediterranean areas. Finally, Cluster 3 showed the lowest suitability values. Two ordination analysis highlighted the variability in bioclimatic suitability for each non-native plant within each cluster, as well as their current distribution pattern. Lastly, a third ordination, integrating bioclimatic suitability and spatial patterns, has allowed the differentiation of management actions for each non-native plant at both national and bioregional scales. Specifically, seven non-native plants were earmarked for eradication action, six for monitoring action, while the remaining species were deemed suitable for control and containment. Our results and the methodology proposed meet the demand for replicable new early warning tools; that is to predict the location of new outbreaks, to establish priorities for eradication, control and containment, and to monitor invasive non-native species.

Assessment of the potential area for the establishment of the Colorado potato beetle in Finland and Sweden

Summary The Colorado potato beetle (CPB, Leptinotarsa decemlineata) is a protected zone quarantine pest in the southern parts of Finland and Sweden. The units responsible for pest risk assessments in Finland and Sweden were requested to identify the geographical areas likely to be suitable for establishment of the CPB given a climate change scenario that covers the years 2023–2040. Based on previous studies, the northern limit of the potential range of the CPB appears to depend, above all, on where the summer temperatures enable the development of one complete generation. To identify such areas in Finland and Sweden, we first estimated the annual growing degree day (GDD) requirement (above 10 °C) of the CPB based on the two‐decade mean annual GDD in the northernmost locations where the CPB is present in Russia. The lowest mean annual GDD among these locations was 587 which was used as the GDD requirement of the CPB in this assessment. Next, we delineated the areas in Finland and Sweden where this GDD requirement was met in a recent time period (2003–2022) and in a future time period (2031–2050) assuming an intermediate greenhouse gas emission scenario, i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. The results show that the GDD requirement of 587 is met in large areas in southern Finland and Sweden, and by 2040, also in central Finland and the Baltic Sea coastline. We further assessed that there are enough hosts for the CPB to enable establishment in these areas. These areas were therefore assessed as likely to be suitable for the establishment of the CPB. Importantly, they include areas much further north than the current protected zones. This result was assessed to be rather robust since even a 20% higher GDD requirement (704) was met in a much larger area than the protected zones both in Sweden (in the recent and future climate) and in Finland (in the future climate). The greatest sources of uncertainty in the assessment are the uncertainty of the annual GDD that the CPB needs to complete its life cycle, the future climate projections, and the abundance of hosts necessary in a landscape to enable the CPB to establish.

Differential ovipositional preferences of Acraea terpsicore (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) on congeneric wild and introduced cultivated Passiflora plants based on differences in leaf characteristics

Acraea terpsicore (Linnaeus, 1758) can utilize multiple host plants, particularly those in genus Passiflora, and poses a potential pest risk for introduced Passiflora plants and economically significant crops. In this study, the ovipositional preferences of an A. terpsicore population were investigated on four Passiflora species, including the wild host plant P. foetida, the fruit crop plant P. edulis, and two ornamental flower plants, P. × alata-caerulea and P. × coccinea-caerulea, as well as two non-Passiflora plants, Cucumis sativus and Vigna unguiculata. From a total of 4,059 eggs and 3,135 caterpillars, the majority of eggs were oviposited on P. foetida (50.63 %), followed by P. × coccinea-caerulea (23.40 %), P. × alata-caerulea (20.65 %), and P. edulis (5.32 %). Similarly, caterpillars were predominantly observed on P. foetida (38.66 %) and P. × coccinea-caerulea (38.50 %), followed by P. × alata-caerulea (17.86 %) and P. edulis (4.98 %). Meanwhile, neither eggs nor caterpillars were found on the non-Passiflora plants. Interestingly, the abundance of predatory arthropods mirrored the distribution of caterpillars. In addition, temperature and humidity strongly influenced the number of observed eggs and caterpillars. Although A. terpsicore preferred to oviposit on P. foetida, its caterpillars were equally abundant on P. × coccinea-caerulea. These differential ovipositional preferences and caterpillar proportions may be attributed to ovipositional preferences rather than caterpillars’ preferences. Although A. terpsicore is regarded as a non-pest species at present, this status may be altered if it encounters congeneric plants resembling its wild host plant within landscapes.

Mechanistic microclimate models and plant pest risk modelling

AbstractClimatic conditions are key determining factors of whether plant pests flourish. Models of pest response to temperature are integral to pest risk assessment and management, helping to inform surveillance and control measures. The widespread use of meteorological data as predictors in these models compromises their reliability as these measurements are not thermally coupled to the conditions experienced by pest organisms or their body temperatures. Here, we present how mechanistic microclimate models can be used to estimate the conditions experienced by pest organisms to provide significant benefits to pest risk modelling. These well-established physical models capture how landscape, vegetation and climate interact to determine the conditions to which pests are exposed. Assessments of pest risk derived from microclimate conditions are likely to significantly diverge from those derived from weather station measurements. The magnitude of this divergence will vary across a landscape, over time and according to pest habitats and behaviour due to the complex mechanisms that determine microclimate conditions and their effect on pest biology. Whereas the application of microclimate models was once restricted to relatively homogeneous habitats, these models can now be applied readily to generate hourly time series across extensive and varied landscapes. We outline the benefits and challenges of more routine application of microclimate models to pest risk modelling. Mechanistic microclimate models provide a heuristic tool that helps discriminate between physical, mathematical and biological causes of model failure. Their use can also help understand how pest ecology, behaviour and physiology mediate the relationship between climate and pest response.

Betel Vine Marketing in Tamil Nadu, India: Price Spread Analysis

Tamil Nadu is one the leading betel leaf cultivating states in the country. Besides, it faces significant challenges in producing betel vines due to risk of pests and diseases. These risks have a negative impact on the farm economy. Disease outbreaks can be incredibly concerning and have an impact on a company's profitability. The higher labour costs, pest and disease and natural calamities have made it difficult for farmers to produce their crops. Therefore, it was essential to study the marketing cost, price spread and marketing efficiency of betel vine in Tamil Nadu. The use of a well-structured interview schedule allowed for the collection of information from farmers regarding the cost and return of producing betel vines. From the local marketplaces in Thanjavur District, village traders, commission agents, wholesalers and retailers were chosen. Price spread and marketing efficiency were used to know about the marketing cost and the price received by the farmer. The efficient marketing channel was channel III (Producer → Retailer → Consumer) because it has the lowest price spread of 18.9 per cent which be due to a smaller number of intermediaries. The marketing efficiency in channel III (16.1) was higher than in channel I (10.6) and channel II (6.3) respectively. Thus, marketing of betel leaf in channel III was more efficient for farmers.

Preparing Colombian coffee production for climate change: Integrated spatial modelling to identify potential robusta coffee (Coffea canephora P.) growing areas

Meeting future demand for coffee under climate change is a challenge. Approaches that can inform where coffee may grow best under current and future climate scenarios are needed. Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora P.) is planted in many tropical areas and makes up around 40% of the world’s coffee supply. However, as the climate shifts, current robusta areas may become less productive, while in other areas new growing regions for robusta may emerge. Colombia is one of the world’s most important Arabica coffee producer, famous for its high-quality coffee. Although robusta coffee is not yet a commercial crop in Colombia, it could be one of the future bastions for robusta coffee in South America contributing to meeting the increasing demand, but this remains unexplored. We aimed to identify areas with highest biophysical and socio-economic potential to grow robusta coffee in Colombia. An integrated modelling approach was used, combining climate suitability and crop-yield modelling for current and future climate scenarios, soil constraints, pest risk assessment and socio-economic constraints to identify the regions with the highest potential productivity and the lowest pest and climate change risks with good market access and low security risks which don’t further expand the agricultural frontier. Our results showed that parts of the foothills along the eastern Andean Mountain ranges, the high plains of the Orinoquía region and the wet parts of the Caribbean region are the best candidates for the potential development of robusta coffee plantations in Colombia. The crop-yield model indicated highest yields of green coffee on the foothills of the eastern Andean Mountain range with an estimated average yield of 2.6 t ha−1 (under rain-fed conditions) which is projected to occur at elevations below 600 m avoiding interference with the traditional and established Arabica coffee regions in Colombia. Under a 2 °C global warming scenario climate change is projected to have the largest impacts on the Caribbean region. Therefore, larger scale irrigated production system could be an appropriate option in the Caribbean region, while diversified smallholder robusta coffee agroforestry systems are considered more favourable in the Orinoquía region.

How agroecology can help build dynamic cocoa agroforests in Ghana

Ghana's once-diverse cocoa-forest landscapes have been replaced by monoculture cocoa farms, causing a host of social, ecological and economic problems. A case study of local innovation in Ghana's Juabeso/Bia Landscape (JBL) demonstrates how agroecological principles can restore these landscapes, revive biodiversity, enable food security and empower cocoa farmers. The promotion of full-sun cocoa cultivation, tenure insecurity and food insecurity, however, are currently hindering the uptake of cocoa agroforestry. Full-sun cocoa was popularised by an ill-advised policy that pushed farmers to remove old-growth trees, reducing resilience and sustainability. Tenure insecurity is a result of the 1962 Concessions Act, which transferred tree rights to the state, who empowered private logging companies, discouraging farmers from maintaining old-growth trees on their increasingly exploited cocoa farms. Food insecurity is also a pressing issue, as cocoa-focused agricultural programmes neglect long-term food production, forcing farmers to encroach on forest reserves for food, further contributing to biodiversity loss. In comparison, agroecology aims to increase overall system resilience and restore the balance between productivity and sustainability, providing diverse social, economic and environmental benefits over the long term. A farmer in the case study implemented dynamic cocoa agroforestry, and has experienced improved nutrient cycling, biodiversity and soil carbon sequestration, and reduced risk of fire, pests and disease. To encourage more farmers to adopt agroecology, issues of limited empirical information, inadequate investment, policy shortcomings and the threat of illegal mining must be overcome. This could be facilitated by introducing policy reforms, investing in farmer programmes, establishing market incentives and giving farmers control over their trees; by means of a collaborative effort between policymakers, researchers, extension services, NGOs and the private sector. Their long-term commitment to agroecology will ensure resilience, sustainability, and prosperity in Ghana's cocoa sector.

Naturalised Hakea. What species are we actually talking about in Europe?

ABSTRACT Hakea sericea Schrad. & J.C.Wendl. (Proteaceae) is a shrub or small tree native to south-eastern Australia. The species has been introduced to other countries; it has naturalised and become invasive in France, New Zealand, Portugal, and South Africa. During the review process of the Pest Risk Analysis for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization (EPPO) on Hakea sericea in 2017, the actual identity of the plant causing major negative biodiversity impact in Portugal was questioned. Flowering material from Portugal and additional collections from South Africa and New Zealand were collected in order to clarify the taxonomical status. To make the survey on the proper identity of the Hakea plants invasive in Portugal more concise, all Hakea species encountered in Portugal, France, South Africa and New Zealand were included. For morphological distinction of the species the length of the pistil and fruit characters were used. For molecular analysis Illumina sequencing in combination with de novo assembly and extraction of loci was used. Results show that invasive populations of Hakea in Portugal belong to H. decurrens R.Br a species that, although very similar and sometimes considered synonymous with H. sericea, can be distinguished both morphologically and on the basis of cpDNA. Both species occur in France and in New Zealand, while only H. sericea occurs in South Africa. Both species are invasive and seem to have similar impacts on biodiversity in invaded ranges. The morphologically similar species H. gibbosa (J.White) Cav. occurs in both New Zealand and South Africa. By adopting the H. sericea sensu lato concept for inclusion of the species on the List of Union Concern pursuant of Regulation (EU) No 1143/2014, a potential legislative controversy can be prevented.

Climate change in pest risk assessment: Interpretation and communication of uncertainties

AbstractThe prevailing climatic conditions found in a region are the primary determinant of the suitability of that area to support pests and diseases. Pest risk assessment is the primary biosecurity tool used to assess that suitability, but the changing climatic conditions owing to greenhouse gas emissions are rarely considered. Future changes in temperature and rainfall patterns may make the environmental suitability of a region more or less favourable for existing populations and cause populations to move to other regions where those pests and diseases may not be established. Future projections of climate change are uncertain, which makes it challenging to incorporate climate change into pest risk analysis, but aspects of human psychology can help us think about how to communicate the risks within the constraints of those uncertainties more effectively. Here we review the broad trends, magnitude and uncertainties of climate change, and the interpretation of climate change scenarios, and make recommendations for appropriate framing and communication of the future risks posed by climate change within pest risk assessments.

Beyond the present: How climate change is relevant to pest risk analysis

AbstractClimate change is widely recognized as a critical global challenge with far‐reaching consequences. It affects pest species by altering their population dynamics, actual and potential distribution areas, as well as interactions with their hosts and natural enemies. Climate change thus has potentially important implications for multiple areas of the pest risk analysis (PRA) process. The importance of including climate change in PRA may vary depending on the climatic context of the PRA area in relation to the speed of climate change. If climatic changes within the time horizon of interest are minimal, their potential impact on pest risk is reduced accordingly. For PRAs in a changing climate, we need to be concerned with how future climates could alter our assessment of the risks currently posed by each pest species. While climate can influence the distribution and abundance of pests and hosts alike, its significance will vary depending on the situation. The inclusion of climate change within a PRA also presents challenges. The dynamic nature of climate change, with its complex interactions and uncertainties, can make it difficult to predict and assess the future risks posed by pests accurately. Uncertainties related to future predictions may be much greater than the potential effects associated with climate change and species’ responses to it. This paper outlines examples of the effects of climate change on hosts and different groups of pests, including invertebrates, pathogens, weeds and vector species. The aim is to review the opportunities and challenges of incorporating climate change into PRA, offering insights for a variety of stakeholders including policymakers on this topic.

Effect of agricultural intensification on the genetic diversity of Helicoverpa armigera

AbstractAgricultural intensification affects natural and crop ecosystems, and increases the risk of agricultural pests in agroecosystems. Helicoverpa armigera Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is an important pest that damages a wide range of crops. However, the effect of agricultural intensification on the genetic diversity of this pest is still unclear. In this study, we investigated the effects of the composition and configuration of the landscape on the genetic diversity of the agricultural pest H. armigera based on cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) analyses. In total, 10 haplotypes were found in 2016 and 15 haplotypes in 2021 based on COI genes. The haplotype diversity and nucleotide diversity were the highest in the Anqiu (AQ) region during 2016 and in the Bincheng (BC) region during 2021. Haplotype 2 and haplotype 3 (Hap2 and Hap3) were the dominant haplotypes in the H. armigera population. Agricultural intensification had no effect on the genetic diversity of H. armigera between 2016 and 2021. Our study highlights the effect of agricultural intensification on the genetic diversity of H. armigera. Understanding the genetic consequences of agricultural intensification is essential for the green control of agricultural pests and the sustainable development of agriculture.

Climate change: A guide for pest risk assessors and decision makers

Climate change: A guide for pest risk assessors and decision makers

Modelling tools for including climate change in pest risk assessments

AbstractThis paper provides a comprehensive overview of the modelling tools available for integrating climate change impacts into pest risk assessments (PRA), elucidating the existing methodologies and models employed to understand the potential distributions of pests based on historical data and under future climate change scenarios. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these models and provide commentary on their ability to identify emerging threats due to climate change accurately and adequately, considering pest establishment likelihood, host crop exposure and the distribution of impacts. The simplest methods are based on climate‐matching models, degree‐day development models and Köppen–Geiger climate classification. Correlative species distribution models derive species–environment relationships and have been applied to PRA with mixed success. When fitted models are applied to different continents they are usually challenged to extrapolate climate suitability patterns outside the climate space used to train them. Global climate change is creating novel climates, exacerbating this ‘transferability’ problem. Some tools have been developed to reveal when these models are extrapolating. Process‐oriented models, which focus on mechanisms and processes rather than distribution patterns, are inherently more reliable for extrapolation to novel climates such as new continents and future climate scenarios. These models, however, require more skill and generally more knowledge of the species to craft robust models.

Including climate change in pest risk assessment: Current practices and perspectives for future implementation

AbstractThe evaluation of the potential for newly arrived species to survive and the determination whether a founder population can become established and subsequently spread and cause negative impacts are crucial considerations when performing a pest risk assessment in plant health. Climate change has clear consequences concerning the potential range of pests, and their potential for spread and impacts. Despite its importance, no guidance exists to support the evaluation of whether and how climate change should be incorporated into pest risk assessment. This paper reviews how climate change has been considered so far, not only in the area of pest risk assessment but also in other domains and provides guidance on how its incorporation could affect the overall assessment. Furthermore, from this analysis, some possible solutions for incorporating climate change into pest risk assessment are provided, taking into account that its outcomes have profound political, economic, social and environmental implications.

Rapid risk assessment of plant pathogenic bacteria and protists likely to threaten agriculture, biodiversity and forestry in Zambia

A prioritisation study was conducted to address the lack of adequate information about potential pests likely to be introduced in Zambia and become invasive. The study was conducted by subject matter experts from relevant institutions in and outside Zambia. Although this study focused on major pest categories, this paper only addresses bacteria and Protista. A list of 306 bacterial and 10 Protista species adjudged to affect plants was generated using CABI’s Horizon Scanning Tool. The 316 (total) pest species were refined to focus on pests that affect value chains important to Zambia’s economy. This resulted in a final list of 133 bacteria and eight Protista. Four additional bacteria species considered of phytosanitary interest were added and all 137 bacteria and eight Protista species were subjected to a rapid risk assessment using agreed guidelines. Vectors reported to transmit any of the pathogenic organisms were also subjected to a risk assessment. A proportion of 53% (n = 77 of 145) comprising 73 bacteria and four Protista species were reported as present in Africa. Of these, 42 (57%, n = 73) bacterial species and two (n=4) Protista species were reported in neighbouring countries. Considering a cut-off of 54, the highest scoring pests were 40 bacteria (highest score of 140) and three Protista (highest score of 125). Three actions were suggested for high-scoring pests, a detection surveillance, a pest-initiated pest risk analysis (PRA) or a detection surveillance followed by pest-initiated PRA. A “no action” was suggested where the risk was very low although, for some pathogenic organisms, a “no action” was followed by periodic monitoring. This information will contribute towards proactive prevention and management of biological invasions.