Financial Stability Perspective Research Articles

Nonbank Financial Intermediation: Stock Take of Research, Policy, and Data

This article reviews research and policy work on nonbank financial intermediation (NBFI), taking a financial stability perspective. It first documents the growth in NBFI, reviews its possible drivers, and documents recent instability episodes. NBFI now often surpasses traditional bank financing, and research on it has increased, including research on its financial stability characteristics. Given NBFI's many forms and dimensions, the article focuses on its market-based forms. Taking a cross-country perspective, it reviews the benefits of NBFI, in terms of access to finance and economic impact, and its risks, specifically those related to interconnections, interactions between liquidity and leverage, and procyclicality. It describes policy steps—underway and possible—to reduce these risks, highlights outstanding issues, and suggests further analytical work. It also considers the current state of available data and the means to address remaining gaps.

Can public data availability affect stock price crash risk? Evidence from China

In the era of the digital economy, data has emerged as a critical factor of production. The exploration of methods to unlock the economic value inherent in the vast reservoirs of public data held by the government has now begun to draw the attention of scholars. However, little research has considered this issue from the perspective of financial market stability. Leveraging the staggered establishment of public data open platforms (PDOPs) across different cities of China and employing the staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, we find that the establishment of PDOPs significantly decrease local firms' stock price crash risk (SPCR). Our results remain valid after various robustness tests, such as placebo tests, entropy balancing analysis, alternative measures of SPCR, as well as alternative difference-in-differences (DID) estimators. Furthermore, additional evidence suggests that the observed effects are driven by two mechanisms: improved operating performance and enhanced external monitoring. The former mechanism reduces the generation of bad news within firms, while the latter restricts managers' ability to hoard bad news. Further research findings show that the motivation of management to withhold bad news and the nature of firms' property rights are important factors affecting the relationship between public data availability and SPCR. Overall, our findings suggest that government can help improve capital market resource allocation efficiency by supplying public data to market participants.

Bank liquidity hoarding and bank systemic risk: The moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty

In this article, we use panel data from 457 listed banks in 20 countries to investigate the impact of bank liquidity hoarding on systemic risk in the banking sector and discuss it under the condition of economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Empirical evidence suggests that when banks' liquidity hoarding increases, their systemic risk contribution decreases significantly. Furthermore, we demonstrate that bank liquidity hoarding works through the channel of improving bank operational stability and reducing bank asset risk. In addition, during a period of high EPU, bank liquidity hoarding has a more significant effect on reducing systemic risk. Our results remain stable after a battery of robustness checks. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the role of bank liquidity hoarding in reducing systemic risk is more significant in larger banks and banks in developed countries. Moreover, this effect is particularly pronounced when there is an accommodative monetary policy environment. Our study has some important implications for policymakers and regulators. Previous research suggests that policymakers may consider encouraging the banking sector to actively create liquidity instead of hoarding it, as this could lead to higher economic output. However, from the perspective of financial stability, banks' liquidity hoarding can help reduce their systemic risk contribution, especially in periods of high external uncertainty. Therefore, policymakers need to evaluate bank liquidity hoarding behaviour more comprehensively, and strike a balance between promoting economic growth and ensuring financial system stability to maximize overall welfare.

The appropriate level of financial inclusion: The perspective of financial stability

The appropriate level of financial inclusion: The perspective of financial stability

The Coordination Between Macro-Prudential Supervision and Monetary Policy — From the Perspective of Financial Stability

The onset of the 2008 economic crisis forced central banks to acknowledge that the monetary policy and micro prudential policy-based financial regulatory framework is insufficient to avert systemic risks. Compared with the low efficiency of micro prudential supervision in preventing and controlling financial systemic risks and the weakness of a single monetary policy tool in controlling financial systemic risks, the current theorists agree that monetary policy and macro prudential supervision policies are effective in coordinating and resisting financial risks. The link with both macro prudential regulation and monetary policy, as well as how to collaborate and coordinate the two policies, are thus major issues that we must address. Based on this background, this paper systematically combs and analyzes the necessity of coordination between monetary policy and macro prudential policy and the practical experience of relevant research on coordination mode through theoretical research on macro prudential regulation and reference of relevant policies at home and abroad. This paper uses the literature research method and comparative analysis method to analyze the macro prudential policy and monetary policy in depth. The theoretical basis of macro prudential regulation and monetary policy is formed by classifying, summarizing and sorting out the relevant researches on macro prudential regulation and monetary policy made by scholars from various countries. The implementation of macro prudential policies in developed economies like the United States and the United Kingdom, as well as their monetary policy coordination models, are compared and introduced in this dissertation. It also examines the traits and practical application of macro prudential and monetary policy cooperation in various nations. Based on the systematic risk theory, micro prudential supervision, macro prudential supervision theory and monetary policy, combined with the current situation of financial regulatory structures in various countries, using the literature research method and comparative analysis, this paper mainly draws the following conclusions: The financial system can only continue to run smoothly under a combined application of macro and micro prudential regulation; Systemic hazards can be efficiently prevented and mitigated by macro prudential oversight methods; Traditional monetary policy is unable to preserve both financial system stability and monetary stability; According to international experience, the central bank’s coordination of monetary policy and macro prudential policy can better play the complementary effects of the two programs.

Implementation of The Balanced Scorecard Method in Determining Performance Measures in Higher Education Institutions (Case Study: ITB Swadharma)

To compete in higher education, ITB Swadharma needs to enhance its competence by designing and implementing effective strategies in managing higher education that align with its vision and mission. The success of management strategy can be achieved through a comprehensive evaluation of ITB Swadharma's management effectiveness. The Balanced Scorecard method and the interaction between ITB Swadharma's management and the PMB entity's management can be used to create a Balanced Scorecard strategy map. This map involves three strategic objectives from the perspective of development and advancement of learning, three strategic objectives from the perspective of internal business process efficiency, four strategic objectives from a customer satisfaction perspective, and two strategic objectives from the perspective of financial stability. To achieve these two strategic objectives in terms of financial aspects, a lagging indicator is required. Each strategic objective from the customer perspective requires actions. Strategic Objective 1 from the internal business process perspective requires 5 measurements, Strategic Objective 2 requires 3 measurements, and Strategic Objective 3 requires 3 measurements. Meanwhile, from the perspective of learning and growth, Strategic Objective 1 requires 1 measurement, Strategic Objective 2 requires 3 measurements, and Strategic Objective 3 requires 1 lagging indicator measurement and 1 leading indicator measurement.

Information technology, business sustainability and female economic participation in sub-Saharan Africa

This study assesses, from the perspective of financial stability, how business/financial sustainability, moderates the influence of information technology on female economic participation in 49 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2008–2018. The empirical evidence is based on Tobit regression, which accounted for the censored nature of the outcome variables. The following important findings were obtained: First, ICT (information and communications technology) dynamics (mobile phone penetration, internet penetration, and fixed broadband subscriptions) are consistently moderated by business sustainability to positively affect female employment. Second, business sustainability scores must exceed certain thresholds before moderating fixed broadband subscriptions to induce favorable overall effects on female employment, female labor force participation, and female unemployment rates. The positive effects on female employment and labor force participation is ascertained by the thresholds of 18.742 and 19.505 Z-scores, respectively and a Z-score of 17.300 for the negative impact on female unemployment. The thresholds that should be exceeded are within policy reach, make economic sense, and are policy-relevant. This study contributes to the extant literature by providing actionable thresholds for business sustainability that can be employed by policy makers such that information technology positively influences female economic inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Authorised participants as shock absorbers in fixed-income ETFs

This paper uses unique regulatory propriety data to analyse ETF secondary markets from a financial stability perspective. We find that ETF secondary markets are somewhat concentrated, but that a subset of Authorised Participants are active in both primary and secondary markets and act as a buffer between these. Only around a third of the net selling pressure in the secondary market manifests in redemptions in the primary market and this result holds across observed periods of mild market stress. However, the high yield fixed income segment may be more fragile during periods of stress.

Global Regulatory Response to Climate-related Risks from the Financial Stability Perspective: Challenges and Opportunities

Global Regulatory Response to Climate-related Risks from the Financial Stability Perspective: Challenges and Opportunities

The COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty, investor sentiment, and global equity markets: Evidence from the time-frequency co-movements

We use daily data of the Google search engine volume index (GSVI) to capture the pandemic uncertainty and examine its effect on stock market activity (return, volatility, and illiquidity) of major world economies while controlling the effect of the Financial and Economic Attitudes Revealed by Search (FEARS) sentiment index. We use a time–frequency based wavelet approach comprising wavelet coherence and phase difference for our empirical assessment. During the early spread of the COVID-19, our results suggest that pandemic uncertainty, and FEARS sentiment strongly co-move, and increased pandemic uncertainty leads to pessimistic investor sentiment. Furthermore, our partial wavelet analysis results indicate a synchronization relationship between pandemic uncertainty and stock market activities across G7 countries and the world market. Our results are robust to the inclusion of alternative pandemic fear measure in the form of equity market volatility infectious disease tracker. The pandemic uncertainty and associated sentiment implications could be one plausible reason for increased volatility and illiquidity in the market, and hence, policymakers should look upon this issue for the financial market stability perspective.

European Deposit Insurance Scheme(s) – Consequences for the EU’s Financial Stability

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the potential consequences that the shortcomings in harmonising the national deposit guarantee schemes may have on the financial stability of the European Union. The relevance of this subject is underlined both by the European Commission’s intention to revive the European Deposit Insurance Scheme project in 2021 and the recent signals from Germany that they are willing to support the initiative. The paper presents a review of the discussions on establishing a European Deposit Insurance Scheme, the reasons for the project’s failure and the consensus solution that took the form of the Deposit Guarantee Scheme Directive (DGSD). The limited scope of deposit guarantee scheme harmonisation under this directive is discussed in the context of the related EBA opinions pointing to different areas of potential improvements. Differences in national implementation are also reviewed in terms of their potential impact on financial stability. Apart from a careful literature review, statistical analysis of the available financial information characterizing the largest national deposit schemes of the euro is performed to quantify their progress towards the target level of the available financial means. The results prove that most national schemes are still far from reaching the 0.8% target level of readily available funds and that potentially desirable amendments to the DGSD may drag them even further away from reaching that target by 2024. The author concludes that from the perspective of financial stability, the EU should focus on establishing a single scheme at an international level that would complete the project of establishing a banking union. The results contribute to the ongoing discussion on the need to further integrate the national deposit guarantee schemes inside the EU.

Location, location, location!*: a quality-adjusted rent index for the Oslo office market

PurposeCommonly used rent indices are based on average developments or expert opinions. Such indices often suffer from compositional biases or low data coverage. The purpose of this paper is to overcome these challenges using the authors' approach.Design/methodology/approachThe authors construct a quality-adjusted rent index for the office market in Oslo using detailed data from 14,171 rental contracts.FindingsThe authors show that compositional biases can have a large impact on rental price developments. By adding building-fixed effects to a standard hedonic regression model, the authors show that the explanatory power increases considerably. Furthermore, indices excluding location-specific information, or which include less granular location controls than at the building level, portray quite a different picture of rent developments than indices that do take this into account. The authors also exploit information on contract signature date and find that a more timely detection of turning points can be achieved by using the signature date instead of the more typically used start date of the lease.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is confined to Norwegian data, and an avenue for future research would be to explore if similar results are obtained for other countries. A weakness with the paper is that authors' do not observe quality changes over time, such as renovation. Controlling for time-varying and unit-specific attributes in hedonic models for the commercial real estate (CRE) market would be useful to purge indices further for compositional effects and unobserved heterogeneity. While the authors do control for building-fixed effects, there are additional variations within a building (floor, view, sunlight, etc.) that the authors do not capture. Studies that could control for this would certainly be welcome, both in order to estimate the value of such amenities and to see how it affects estimated rent developments. Another promising avenue for future research is to link data on rental contracts in the CRE market with firm-specific information in order to explore how firm profitability and liquidity may affect rental contracts.Practical implicationsThe authors show that the hedonic index yields a sharper fall in rents after the global financial crisis and more muted developments in the period between 2013 and 2015 than the average rent index. The results show that rents have followed their estimated equilibrium closely and have re-adjusted quickly in periods of deviation. From a financial stability perspective, the risk of a sharp fall in rents is reduced because rents often are in line with their fundamentals.Social implicationsThe authors find that a more timely detection of turning points can be achieved by using information on the signature date. This is an important finding. The financial system is heavily exposed toward CRE, and timely detection of turning points is critical for policymakers.Originality/valueThe financial system is heavily exposed toward the commercial real estate market and timely detection of turning points is of major importance to policymakers. Finally, the authors use our quality-adjusted rent index as the dependent variable in an error correction model. The authors find that employment and stock of offices are important explanatory variables. Moreover, the results show that rents have followed their estimated equilibrium path.

Risk Mutualization in Central Clearing: An Answer to the Cross-Guarantee Phenomenon from the Financial Stability Viewpoint

Central counterparties’ (CCPs) role is to take over the counterparty risk during trading. To fulfill its role, a CCP needs to operate a multi-level guarantee system that can absorb losses of clearing members’ defaults. Our main question is how the size of the guarantee system changes and how the cross-guarantee undertaking changes between clearing members and markets if the CCP merges the guarantee systems of different markets. This question is essential from a financial stability perspective since the size and the structure of the guarantee system will affect the loss-absorbing capacity of a CCP. We used Monte Carlo simulation to simulate a 30 year time-series for three different products, which gave us the basis for the value-at-risk-based margin calculation and the stress-test-based default fund calculation. Results show that merging the guarantee systems will always decrease the total value of the guarantees because the margin will decrease, which cannot be offset by the increase in the default fund size. We conclude that it is not optimal from the financial stability perspective to merge the guarantee systems. However, if the CCP wants to provide cheaper services, or if the clearing members are willing to cross-guarantee each other, merging is more suitable.

The heat is on: A framework for measuring financial stress under disruptive energy transition scenarios

This paper introduces a stress test framework designed to quantify financial stability risks related to the energy transition. As is standard in financial stress testing, we first construct various tail-event scenarios, in which we incorporate shocks to climate policy and energy technology. We then use various modeling approaches to derive macroeconomic and industry-specific implications of these shocks. To illustrate the framework, we use granular data on EUR 2.3 trillion in assets of more than 80 Dutch financial institutions. We find that financial losses due to credit and market risk could be sizeable. For instance, portfolios values can decline by up to 11%. Such magnitudes suggest that climate-transition risks warrant close attention from a financial stability perspective, while also underlining the importance of avoiding transitions that would be too late and too sudden.

Examining Volatility Spillover Between Foreign Exchange Markets and Stock Markets of Countries such as BRICS Countries

The objective of this article is to examine the volatility spillover effect between the foreign exchange market and the stock market of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) countries along with Japan as the developed country in the region, affecting the BRICS countries. Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic (GARCH) (1,1) method is used to study the volatility between the stock market and the foreign exchange market in selected countries, and asymmetric model, that is, Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity—EGARCH (1,1) is also used to investigate the presence of leverage effects in both stock market and foreign exchange market in selected countries. GARCH findings suggest a two-way volatility spillover between the stock market and foreign exchange markets for India, China and South Africa. In BRICS countries, volatility spillover from the currency market to the stock market is seen as more evident and robust as compared to spillover from the stock market to the currency market. A positive asymmetry in spillover is also observed from the foreign exchange market to the stock market. The findings of the study may provide valuable information to investors for decision-making in international portfolio investment and also for economic policymakers for their financial stability perspective.

LOCAL CURRENCY BOND MARKETS, FOREIGN INVESTOR PARTICIPATION AND CAPITAL FLOW VOLATILITY IN EMERGING ASIA

This paper examines the role of local currency bond markets (LCBMs) and foreign investor participation in these markets in capital flow volatility in emerging Asian economies over the period 1999 to 2020. Using a panel analysis and impulse response functions generated from a panel structural vector autoregression, we show that greater development of LCBMs across 10 Asian emerging economies in terms of capitalization helps to mitigate against the capital flow volatility, while foreign investor participation has the opposite effect, particularly for less developed LCBMs. Our findings have policy implications from a financial stability perspective, whereby continued efforts to enhance LCBMs while reducing reliance on foreign investors should be encouraged. Strengthening the local investor base and mobilizing domestic resources through LCBMs ought to be a priority for raising long-term capital that will enable the financing of sustainable investment and development. Our findings also suggest that greater efforts are needed to enhance foreign exchange hedging arrangements for foreign investors in LCBMs, particularly in times of heightened financial stress.

Modeling the Management of International Reserves from the Perspective of Financial Stability

The paper explores the issues and international practices of the management of international reserves. The link is described between financial stability and international reserves. Emphasis is put on the specific significance of this subject for emerging economies. The main directions are charted for developing a systemic management approach in the domain and a case is made for applying modeling principles.

Securities cross-holding in the Colombian financial system: a topological approach

PurposeFrom a financial stability viewpoint, this paper aims to study cyclical interdependencies arising from the cross-holding of securities in the Colombian financial system.Design/methodology/approachCross-holding of securities in financial systems occurs when two financial institutions hold securities issued by each other or when more than two financial institutions hold securities issued by each other in a circular structure. Securities cross-holding is key for financial stability because of potential contagion arising from cyclical interdependencies in the connective architecture of financial systems. The presence of cyclical interdependencies is studied based on network analysis. The data set is a multilayer network that comprises bonds, certificates of deposit and equity issued and held by Colombian financial institutions from 2016 to 2019.FindingsResults show that the extent of securities’ cyclical interdependencies is particularly low and stable – even when cross-holding across different types of securities is considered.Research limitations/implicationsThe monetary value of exposures and their size with respect to financial institutions’ balance sheets are not considered. Studying the impact on the financial system’s solvency is a compulsory research path.Practical implicationsThe network topology suggests that increased potential contagion by cyclical interdependencies and feedback effects from securities cross-holding is rather limited.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that cyclical interdependencies arising from the securities cross-holding are studied. From a financial stability perspective, the methodology is general and promising for monitoring and analytical purposes.

Local Currency Bond Markets, Foreign Investor Participation, and Capital Flow Volatility in Emerging Asia

We examine the role of local currency bond markets (LCBMs) and foreign investor participation in these markets in capital flow volatility in emerging Asian economies over the period 1999 to 2020. Using a panel analysis and impulse response functions generated from a panel structural vector autoregression, we show that greater development of LCBMs across 10 Asian emerging economies in terms of capitalization helps to mitigate against capital flow volatility, while foreign investor participation has the opposite effect, particularly for less developed LCBMs. Our findings have policy implications from a financial stability perspective, whereby continued efforts to enhance LCBMs while reducing reliance on foreign investors should be encouraged. Strengthening the local investor base and mobilizing domestic resources through LCBMs ought to be a priority for raising long-term capital that will enable the financing of sustainable investment and development. Our findings also suggest that greater efforts are needed to enhance foreign exchange hedging arrangements for foreign investors in LCBMs, particularly in times of heightened financial stress.

ФРАГМЕНТАЦИЯ МИРОВЫХ ФИНАНСОВЫХ РЫНКОВ В КОНТЕКСТЕ ФИНАНСОВОЙ СТАБИЛЬНОСТИ

This article examines the degree of fragmentation in various markets and classifies its possible causes. The definitions of fragmentation presented: price measures – differences in prices for equivalent assets in different countries; and quantitative measures – deviations from benchmarks in international investment positions. The costs and benefits of fragmentation examined from a financial stability perspective, drawing on the experience of the securities market, international banking and asset prices. It is concluded that the fragmentation of financial markets and financial stability complement each other. In some cases, some degree of fragmentation actually contributes to improved financial stability. However, assessing the trade-offs between market fragmentation and financial stability requires identifying the causes of fragmentation and conducting a thorough cost-benefit analysis.