Personal Economic Circumstances Research Articles

Economic Crises, Subjective Well-Being, and Vote Switching: The Case of Brazil’s 2018 Presidential Election

This paper examines the influence of the 2015 economic crisis on subjective well-being (SWB) and the withdrawal of support for the incumbent party during the 2018 presidential election in Brazil. Using Gallup World Poll data and a post-election national survey conducted by the Center for Studies on Public Opinion, we find that the economic crisis influenced through different channels both SWB and vote switching. Worsening personal economic circumstances explain the decline in SWB in the aftermath of the crisis, while deteriorating perceptions about the economy explain the vote switching during the presidential election in 2018. Leadership disapproval played a role in both, but to different degrees. One possible explanation for the limited effect of personal economic circumstances on voting behavior in Brazil is that those who were most severely affected by the economic downturn, specifically the poorest individuals in the country, did not see voting for Bolsonaro as a feasible or desirable choice.

Supporting environmental protection in good and bad economic circumstances

ABSTRACT This article explores the scope conditions of the effect of individual political orientation on environmental beliefs, focusing on personal economic circumstances. Distinguishing between willingness and opportunity factors, it is argued that the positive effect of left-wing ideology on public support for environmental protection is more strongly pronounced when individuals’ personal economic circumstances are better as potentially more costly regulations can be paid for. We test the theory using three different data sets from three different contexts: the German Longitudinal Election Study, the Cooperative Election Study (US), and Eurobarometer data. The analyses provide strong and robust evidence in line with our expectations. This research adds to our understanding of the role of political ideology as well as economic conditions in environmental public-opinion formation, and we shed light on the interactive influence of self-interest and political predisposition.

Partisan-Biased Households’ Expectations: Aggregate Economic Conditions vs Personal Economic Circumstances

Partisan-Biased Households’ Expectations: Aggregate Economic Conditions vs Personal Economic Circumstances

POLITICAL TRUST AND SOCIAL COHESION AT A TIME OF CRISIS The Impact of COVID-19 on Kurdistan Region-Iraq

COVID-19 has attracted much attention in Kurdish neighbourhoods and has been relayed massively by the media across the KRI. Kurdistanis put their trust mostly in television as the most accessible source of information across the region. Conversely, social media was not considered a reliable source of information during the pandemic. The results of this survey highlight a strong lack of trust in federal political figures and institutions. At the regional level, Kurdistanis are divided along lines of political affiliation and geography. While respondents from Duhok and Erbil expressed a high level of trust in the KRG, people of Silemani are openly distrustful of the KRI government. The institutions responsible for mitigating the impact of the pandemic attract the highest level of trust across governorates. This is the case with the KRG Ministry of Health and Ministry of Interior, including the security forces and the police. Conversely, participants expressed strong rejection of both parliaments that sit in Baghdad and Erbil. The legislative body attracted the least trust among the population surveyed. The COVID-19 pandemic has fostered social cohesion in the KRI. The majority of respondents believed that all Kurdistanis, including both vulnerable and non-vulnerable groups, should be treated equally and should receive the same amount of government support during the pandemic. That being said, a significant number of respondents recognized the importance of caring for those most vulnerable, such as the elderly, Syrian refugees, and International Displaced Persons (IDPs) more broadly. Finally, respondents have been shown to rely mostly on their social circles and family throughout the crisis, rather than regional and federal institutions. Those surveyed strongly supported the preventive measures in general imposed by the KRG on the three governorates. Yet, answers to the survey reveal that such measures have had an impact on the personal economic circumstances of Kurdistanis, especially among the younger portion of the population, who expected to face financial difficulties in the near future as a direct consequence of the pandemic and its impact.

Exponential Growth Bias in the Prediction of Covid-19 Spread and Economic Expectation

Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the pervasive tendency of people to perceive a growth process as linear when, in fact, it is exponential. In this paper, we document that people exhibit EGB when asked to predict the number of COVID-19 positive cases in the future. The bias is positively correlated with optimistic expectations about the future macroeconomic conditions and personal economic circumstances, and investment in a risky asset. We design four interventions to correct EGB and evaluate them through a randomized experiment. In the first treatment (Step), participants make predictions in several short steps; in the second and third treatments (Feedback-N and Feedback-G) participants are given feedback about their prediction errors either in the form of numbers or graphs; and in the fourth treatment (Forecast), participants are offered a forecast range of the future number of cases, based on a statistical model. Our results show that a) Step helps mitigate EGB relative to Baseline, b) Feedback-N, Feedback-G, and Forecast significantly reduce bias relative to both Baseline and Step, c) the interventions decrease risky investment and help moderate future economic expectations through the reduction in EGB. The results suggest that nudges, such as behaviorally informed communication strategies, which correct EGB can also help rationalize economic expectations.

The market, the state and satisfaction with democracy

Satisfaction with democracy is driven by the two mechanisms that affect citizens’ income: the market and the state. When people consider that the levels of economic growth and redistribution are sufficient, they are more satisfied with the performance of democratic institutions. This relationship is moderated by personal income: since low-income citizens are more sensitive to changes in personal economic circumstances than high-income citizens, they give more weight to economic perceptions and opinions about redistribution. In this paper evidence is found of this conditional relationship in survey data from 16 established democracies. The results offer a rich characterisation of the state and market-based mechanisms that affect satisfaction with democracy.

How should unconventional oil and gas be regulated? The role of natural resource dependence and economic insecurity

The U.S. is undergoing a rapid energy transition, driven in large part an explosion in oil and gas production driven by unconventional drilling technologies. Some communities have embraced the boom in new oil and gas production, often resisting efforts to regulate the oil and gas industry. On the other hand, some states and municipalities have effectively banned new oil and gas drilling. In this paper, we examine how natural resource dependence, local economic conditions, and perceived economic benefits relate to support for restrictive oil and gas regulations in Colorado, US. Using representative survey data, our results suggest that perceived benefits, especially in the form of tax revenue, predict oil and gas policy preferences, while local and personal economic circumstances have little impact.

Are Risk Attitudes Fixed Factors or Fleeting Feelings?

We investigate the stability of measured risk attitudes over time, using a 13-year longitudinal sample of individuals in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979. We find that an individual’s risk aversion changes systematically in response to personal economic circumstances. Risk aversion increases with lengthening spells of employment and time out of labor force, and decreases with lengthening unemployment spells. However, the most important result is that the majority of the variation in risk aversion is due to changes in measured individual tastes over time and not to variation across individuals. These findings that measured risk preferences are endogenous and subject to substantial measurement errors suggest caution in interpreting coefficients in models relying on contemporaneous, one-time measures of risk preferences.

How Do Expectations About the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?

Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their aggregate economic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances and adjust their consumption behavior and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with sticky information models in which people are inattentive, but understand how the economy works.

Brothers or Invaders?: How Crises-Driven Migrants Shape Voting Behavior

Can voter’s negative attitudes toward immigration be explained by self-interest or sociotropic motives? Self-interested voters care about their personal economic circumstances. Sociotropic voters display in-group bias and perceive migrants as threats to their culture. We study the voting effects of forced internal and international migration in Colombia and exploit the disproportionate flows of migrants to municipalities with early settlements of individuals from their origin locations. In line with the sociotropic hypothesis, we find that only international migration inflows increase political participation and shift votes from left- to right-wing ideologies. These results are not accounted for by the observed changes caused by migrants in socioeconomic variables.

How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?

Using a representative online panel from the United States, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances, and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive but understand how the economy works.

How Do Expectations About the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?

Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals’ macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents’ expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive, but understand how the economy works.

Rethinking Economic Conditions and Environmental Attitudes: Macroeconomic Effects, Individual Experiences, and Subjectivity

The global environmental concern literature has focused on economic development as a contextual predictor of environmental attitudes with conflicting empirical results. Some studies, informed by postmaterialist theory or the affluence hypothesis, find that national affluence increases environmental concern, whereas others find the opposite. In this article, we qualify the economy and environmental attitude relationship by arguing that it has several dimensions: long-term macroeconomic history, short-term economic growth, individuals’ recent economic experiences, individuals’ subjective understandings of the national economy, and their personal economic circumstances. This holistic framework is operationalized with multilevel models and data from the Life in Transition II project, using outcomes for climate change attitudes. We find that recent economic hardships at the individual level (e.g., a job loss) have a positive to null effect. More subjectively, respondents who believe that the recent global recession had a negative effect on their household are more concerned with climate change. At the country level, long-run economic development does little to explain cross-national differences in climate change attitudes whereas short-run, relative economic growth increases both climate change concern and willingness to pay for climate policy. More broadly, future research should de-emphasize long-run, macroeconomic conditions as determinants of environmental attitudes.

Public Attitudes Toward Immigration

Immigrant populations in many developed democracies have grown rapidly, and so too has an extensive literature on natives' attitudes toward immigration. This research has developed from two theoretical foundations, one grounded in political economy, the other in political psychology. These two literatures have developed largely in isolation from one another, yet the conclusions that emerge from each are strikingly similar. Consistently, immigration attitudes show little evidence of being strongly correlated with personal economic circumstances. Instead, research finds that immigration attitudes are shaped by sociotropic concerns about its cultural impacts—and to a lesser extent its economic impacts—on the nation as a whole. This pattern of results has held up as scholars have increasingly turned to experimental tests, and it holds for the United States, Canada, and Western Europe. Still, more work is needed to strengthen the causal identification of sociotropic concerns and to isolate precisely how, when, and why they matter for attitude formation.

Correspondence between the Objective and Subjective Economies: The Role of Personal Economic Circumstances

The impact of sociotropic economic satisfaction on the vote has been thoroughly analysed. However, knowledge about how citizens acquire information about the economy and the degree of correspondence between objective macroeconomic changes and citizens' subjective economic perceptions is much more limited. While the effect of partisan rationalisation has recently received some attention, the role of objective personal economic conditions in assessing national economic conditions is still unclear. We suggest that macroeconomic changes have some impact on subjective economic satisfaction, especially among higher-income and socio-professional strata with higher risk aversion rates to negative macroeconomic shocks. The results are obtained via three-level hierarchical linear models using the cumulative file of the European Social Survey (2002–9) and confirm the relevance of citizens' personal economic circumstances as a filter to perceive the state of the economy.

Public Attitudes toward Immigration

Immigrant populations in many developed democracies have grown rapidly, and so too has an extensive literature on natives’ attitudes toward immigration. This research has developed from two theoretical foundations, one grounded in political economy, the other in political psychology. These two literatures have developed largely in isolation from one another, yet the conclusions that emerge from each are strikingly similar. Consistently, immigration attitudes show little evidence of being strongly correlated with personal economic circumstances. Instead, immigration attitudes are shaped by sociotropic concerns about national-level impacts, whether those impacts are cultural or economic. This pattern of results has held up as scholars have increasingly turned to experimental tests, and it fits the evidence from the United States, Canada, and Western Europe. Still, more work is needed to strengthen the causal identification of sociotropic concerns and to isolate precisely how, when, and why they matter for attitude formation.

Warning: Failure to be an Advocate Can Be Hazardous to Your Research Career

Warning: Failure to be an Advocate Can Be Hazardous to Your Research Career

Disadvantaged families and the meaning of the holiday

Holiday participation, although widespread, is not universal. This paper summarises a study of the meaning and significance of the holiday for families who are rarely able to go on holiday because of personal economic and social circumstances: a subgroup of Haukeland's category C non-travellers. Holidays are likely to have particular significance for them. Studies of women’s holiday experiences are examined in order to contribute to the context of this study. Informants were interviewed in their own homes and a number of meanings emerged including the significance of ‘change’ and establishing relationships. The study confirms the diversity of holiday experiences and meanings and the particular significance for this study group in conferring the ‘excitement and spectacle’ that are particularly limited in their every-day lives. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Echoes from the Past: The Relationship between Satisfaction with Economic Reforms and Voting Behavior in Poland

Electorates in several East European countries have thrown their support behind reconstructed communist parties. Is personal economic hardship driving this phenomenon? We argue that political behavior in postcommunist societies is fundamentally structured by interpretations of the transition histories, which were centrally constitutive events. We propose a structural equation model in which understandings of the past mediate the relationship between personal circumstances and satisfaction with economic reforms. We analyze cross-sectional data collected in Poland immediately after the 1993 parliamentary elections and find, consistent with our hypotheses, that understandings of the past exert as much of an effect on attitudes toward reforms as do personal economic assessments. We use multinomial logit to analyze vote choice and find that personal economic circumstances are of little importance. Attitudes toward economic reforms have a limited effect on voting behavior, but their importance is eclipsed by understandings of the past and other factors, such as religion.

Public Opinion Toward Immigration Reform: The Role of Economic Motivations

This paper tests hypotheses concerning the effects of economic factors on public opinion toward immigration policy Using the 1992 and 1994 National Election Study surveys, probit models are employed to test diverse conceptualizations of the effects of economic adversity and anxiety on opposition to immigration The results indicate that personal economic circumstances play little role in opinion formation, but beliefs about the state of the national economy, anxiety over taxes, and generalized feelings about Hispanics and Asians, the major immigrant groups, are significant determinants of restrictionist sentiment. This restricted role of economic motives rooted in one's personal circumstances held true across ethnic groups, among residents in communities with different numbers of foreign-born, and in both 1992 and 1994.