Persistent Physical Disability Research Articles

Outcome risk model development for heterogeneity of treatment effect analyses: a comparison of non-parametric machine learning methods and semi-parametric statistical methods

BackgroundIn randomized clinical trials, treatment effects may vary, and this possibility is referred to as heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE). One way to quantify HTE is to partition participants into subgroups based on individual’s risk of experiencing an outcome, then measuring treatment effect by subgroup. Given the limited availability of externally validated outcome risk prediction models, internal models (created using the same dataset in which heterogeneity of treatment analyses also will be performed) are commonly developed for subgroup identification. We aim to compare different methods for generating internally developed outcome risk prediction models for subject partitioning in HTE analysis.MethodsThree approaches were selected for generating subgroups for the 2,441 participants from the United States enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized controlled trial. An extant proportional hazards-based outcomes predictive risk model developed on the overall ASPREE cohort of 19,114 participants was identified and was used to partition United States’ participants by risk of experiencing a composite outcome of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability. Next, two supervised non-parametric machine learning outcome classifiers, decision trees and random forests, were used to develop multivariable risk prediction models and partition participants into subgroups with varied risks of experiencing the composite outcome. Then, we assessed how the partitioning from the proportional hazard model compared to those generated by the machine learning models in an HTE analysis of the 5-year absolute risk reduction (ARR) and hazard ratio for aspirin vs. placebo in each subgroup. Cochran’s Q test was used to detect if ARR varied significantly by subgroup.ResultsThe proportional hazard model was used to generate 5 subgroups using the quintiles of the estimated risk scores; the decision tree model was used to generate 6 subgroups (6 automatically determined tree leaves); and the random forest model was used to generate 5 subgroups using the quintiles of the prediction probability as risk scores. Using the semi-parametric proportional hazards model, the ARR at 5 years was 15.1% (95% CI 4.0–26.3%) for participants with the highest 20% of predicted risk. Using the random forest model, the ARR at 5 years was 13.7% (95% CI 3.1–24.4%) for participants with the highest 20% of predicted risk. The highest outcome risk group in the decision tree model also exhibited a risk reduction, but the confidence interval was wider (5-year ARR = 17.0%, 95% CI= -5.4–39.4%). Cochran’s Q test indicated ARR varied significantly only by subgroups created using the proportional hazards model. The hazard ratio for aspirin vs. placebo therapy did not significantly vary by subgroup in any of the models. The highest risk groups for the proportional hazards model and random forest model contained 230 participants each, while the highest risk group in the decision tree model contained 41 participants.ConclusionsThe choice of technique for internally developed models for outcome risk subgroups influences HTE analyses. The rationale for the use of a particular subgroup determination model in HTE analyses needs to be explicitly defined based on desired levels of explainability (with features importance), uncertainty of prediction, chances of overfitting, and assumptions regarding the underlying data structure. Replication of these analyses using data from other mid-size clinical trials may help to establish guidance for selecting an outcomes risk prediction modelling technique for HTE analyses.

Vascular restoration through local delivery of angiogenic factors stimulates bone regeneration in critical size defects

Critical size bone defects represent a significant challenge worldwide, often leading to persistent pain and physical disability that profoundly impact patients’ quality of life and mental well-being. To address the intricate and complex repair processes involved in these defects, we performed single-cell RNA sequencing and revealed notable shifts in cellular populations within regenerative tissue. Specifically, we observed a decrease in progenitor lineage cells and endothelial cells, coupled with an increase in fibrotic lineage cells and pro-inflammatory cells within regenerative tissue. Furthermore, our analysis of differentially expressed genes and associated signaling pathway at the single-cell level highlighted impaired angiogenesis as a central pathway in critical size bone defects, notably influenced by reduction of Spp1 and Cxcl12 expression. This deficiency was particularly pronounced in progenitor lineage cells and myeloid lineage cells, underscoring its significance in the regeneration process. In response to these findings, we developed an innovative approach to enhance bone regeneration in critical size bone defects. Our fabrication process involves the integration of electrospun PCL fibers with electrosprayed PLGA microspheres carrying Spp1 and Cxcl12. This design allows for the gradual release of Spp1 and Cxcl12 in vitro and in vivo. To evaluate the efficacy of our approach, we locally applied PCL scaffolds loaded with Spp1 and Cxcl12 in a murine model of critical size bone defects. Our results demonstrated restored angiogenesis, accelerated bone regeneration, alleviated pain responses and improved mobility in treated mice.

Mume Fructus reduces interleukin-1 beta-induced cartilage degradation via MAPK downregulation in rat articular chondrocytes.

Osteoarthritis is the most prevalent type of degenerative arthritis. It is characterized by persistent pain, joint dysfunction, and physical disability. Pain relief and inflammation control are prioritised during osteoarthritis treatment Mume Fructus (Omae), a fumigated product of the Prunus mume fruit, is used as a traditional medicine in several Asian countries. However, its therapeutic mechanism of action and effects on osteoarthritis and articular chondrocytes remain unknown. In this study, we analyzed the anti-osteoarthritis and articular regenerative effects of Mume Fructus extract on rat chondrocytes. Mume Fructus treatment reduced the interleukin-1β-induced expression of matrix metalloproteinase 3, matrix metalloproteinase 13, and a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin type 1 motifs 5. Additionally, it enhanced collagen type II alpha 1 chain and aggrecan accumulation in rat chondrocytes. Furthermore, Mume Fructus treatment regulated the inflammatory cytokine levels, mitogen-activated protein kinase phosphorylation, and nuclear factor-kappa B activation. Overall, our results demonstrated that Mume Fructus inhibits osteoarthritis progression by inhibiting the nuclear factor-kappa B and mitogen-activated protein kinase pathways to reduce the levels of inflammatory cytokines and prevent cartilage degeneration. Therefore, Mume Fructus may be a potential therapeutic option for osteoarthritis.

Late-Life Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease and its Association With Physical Disability and Dementia.

The burden of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is growing rapidly, including among older adults. The number of older adults is also rising with concomitantly increasing rates of age-related physical and cognitive dysfunction. However, data on whether MASLD affects physical and cognitive function in older adults is limited. As such, we aimed to identify whether prevalent MASLD influences the risk of incident physical disability or dementia in initially healthy older adults. A post-hoc analysis of participants from the ASPREE-XT cohort study, which recruited community-dwelling older adults without a history of cardiovascular disease, dementia, or independence-limiting functional impairment. The Fatty Liver Index (to identify MASLD) was calculated in those with complete data. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to investigate the outcomes of dementia and persistent physical disability in participants with MASLD vs those without. Of the 9097 individuals included (mean age 75.1 ± 4.2 years; 45.0% men), 341 (3.7%) developed persistent physical disability and 370 (4.1%) developed dementia over a median follow-up of 6.4 years (IQR 5.3-7.5 years). When adjusting for known contributors including age, gender, education, comorbidity, and functional measures, MASLD was associated with an increased risk of persistent physical disability (HR 1.41 [95% CI: 1.07-1.87]) and reduced risk of incident dementia (HR 0.63 [95% CI: 0.48-0.83]). Prevalent MASLD is associated with reduced rates of incident dementia but increased risk of persistent physical disability in initially relatively healthy older adults. Understanding the mechanisms underlying these divergent results to allow appropriate risk stratification and counseling is important.

DNA METHYLATION-BASED BIOLOGICAL AGING, PLASMA PROTEINS, AND INCIDENT FRAILTY AND PHYSICAL DISABILITY

Abstract Decline in physical function occurs with advanced age, and biological aging may be a useful marker of decline in physical function, beyond chronological age. This study investigated the associations between DNA methylation-based biological aging (DNAm-based age acceleration (AA)) and plasma proteins and the risk of frailty (based on Fried phenotype and a frailty deficit accumulation index (FI)), and persistent physical disability (defined as loss of ability to perform one or more Katz ADL), among community-dwelling people aged ≥70 years enrolled in the ASPREE study. Five AA indices (Horvath, Hannum, Pheno, Grim, and DunedinPACE) and seven plasma proteins (including plasminogen activation inhibitor-1 (PAI-1), growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), and leptin) were measured in blood from 560 participants (50.7% women). Incident health events were captured over a mean of 5.2 years. Cox proportional-hazard regression adjusted for gender, education, and cell counts. One-standard deviation (SD) increase in AA was associated with an increased risk of frailty (FI) (GrimAA: HR=1.48 (95% CI, 1.19 – 1.84), and DunedinPACE: HR=1.39 (95% CI, 1.11 – 1.73)) and physical disability (GrimAA: HR=1.78 (95% CI, 1.15 – 2.77)). One-SD increase in plasma proteins except for leptin was associated with a higher risk of frailty (both Fried phenotype and FI) (range HR: 1.26 to 2.14). In conclusion, accelerated Grim age and DunedinPACE appear as markers of physical impairments, even in initially healthy individuals. Variations in plasma protein levels might be helpful for the identification of pathophysiological pathways associated with the increased risk of physical impairment in later life.

Occupational characteristics and disability-free survival after retirement age: an exploratory analysis from the ASPREE study.

Certain occupational characteristics have been linked with poor health and reduced longevity. However, the association between occupational characteristics and survival free of disability in a post-retirement age group has not been investigated. We investigated outcomes in 12,215 healthy older Australian adults in the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) and ASPREE Longitudinal Study of Older Persons (ALSOP) sub-study. The ISCO-88 major occupational groups, settings, and activity levels were assigned based on free-text job descriptions. The Finnish Job Exposure Matrix was used to assign occupational characteristics to the three longest-held jobs. The primary endpoint, disability-free survival, was defined as a composite measure of death, dementia, or persistent physical disability. The endpoint of all-cause mortality was analyzed separately. Because of multiple exploratory analyses, only those associations with a two-sided value of p less than 0.005 were considered statistically significant. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios. Having worked in an 'elementary' occupation was associated with a reduction in disability-free survival. A specific impact on disability-free survival was observed among those whose work had involved high accident risk and adverse social climate. No significant relationship was identified with those previously exposed to sedentary work, vigorous physical activity, work primarily outdoors, or a range of other occupational characteristics. All-cause mortality was not increased among any of the occupational groups. This exploratory study found a reduction in disability-free survival among people who worked in 'elementary' occupations, with specific risks associated with occupations involving high accident risks and adverse social climate.

Long-term occupational exposures on disability-free survival and mortality in older adults.

The impact of long-term occupational exposures on health in older adults is increasingly relevant as populations age. To date, no studies have reported their impact on survival free of disability in older adults. We aimed to investigate the association between long-term occupational exposure and disability-free survival (DFS), all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in initially healthy older adults. We analysed data from 12 215 healthy participants in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study whose mean age was 75 years. Their work history was collated with the 'ALOHA-plus JEM' (Job Exposure Matrix) to assign occupational exposures. The primary endpoint, DFS, was a composite measure of death, dementia or persistent physical disability. The secondary endpoint, mortality, was classified according to the underlying cause. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for confounders. A total of 1835 individuals reached the DFS endpoint during the median 4.7 years follow-up period. Both ever-high and cumulative exposure to all dusts and all pesticides during a person's working years were associated with reduced DFS. Compared to no exposure, men with high exposure to dusts and pesticides had a reduced DFS. Neither of these exposures were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. Men with high occupational exposure to solvents and women exposed to dusts experienced higher all-cause and cancer-related mortality. Long-term occupational exposure to all dusts and pesticides was associated with a reduced DFS and increased mortality in community-dwelling healthy older adults.

The association of allopurinol with persistent physical disability and frailty in a large community based older cohort.

The protective effects of allopurinol on physical function in older adults are not well understood, despite its potential to improve functional gains and reduce sarcopenia. This study aims to determine the association between allopurinol, persistent physical disability, and frailty in older gout patients. This analysis used data from a randomized trial in an older cohort, ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE). ASPREE recruited 19,114 participants aged ≥65 years without prior cardiovascular events, dementia, or independence-limiting physical disability at trial enrolment. This analysis examined the association of baseline and time-varying allopurinol use with persistent physical disability and new-onset frailty in participants with gout at baseline (self-report or use of any anti-gout medications). Frailty was measured using the Fried frailty phenotype (score ≥3/5) and a deficit accumulation frailty index (FI) (score >0.21/1.0). Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used for main analyses. This analysis included 1155 gout participants, with 630 taking allopurinol at baseline and 525 not. During a median follow-up of 5.7 years, 113 new allopurinol users were identified. Compared with nonusers, baseline allopurinol use was associated with a significant risk reduction of persistent physical disability (Adjusted HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.23-0.92, p = 0.03). The strength of the association was modestly attenuated in the time-varying analysis (Adjusted HR 0.56, 0.29-1.08, p = 0.08). No significant associations with frailty measures were observed for either baseline allopurinol use (Fried frailty: Adjusted HR 0.83, 0.62-1.12; FI: Adjusted HR 0.96, 0.74-1.24) or time-varying allopurinol use (Fried frailty: Adjusted HR 0.92, 0.69-1.24; FI: Adjusted HR 1.02, 0.78-1.33). Allopurinol use in older adults with gout is associated with a reduced risk of persistent physical disability but not associated with risk of frailty.

Potentially inappropriate medication use is associated with increased risk of incident disability in healthy older adults.

Efforts to minimize medication risks among older adults include avoidance of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs). However, most PIMs research has focused on older people in aged or inpatient care, creating an evidence gap for community-dwelling older adults. To address this gap, we investigated the impact of PIMs use in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) clinical trial cohort. Analysis included 19,114 community-dwelling ASPREE participants aged 70+ years (65+ if US minorities) without major cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, or significant physical disability. PIMs were defined according to a modified 2019 AGS Beers Criteria. Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to estimate the association between baseline PIMs exposure and disability-free survival, death, incident dementia, disability, and hospitalization, with adjustment for sex, age, country, years of education, frailty, average gait speed, and comorbidities. At baseline, 7396 (39% of the total) participants were prescribed at least one PIM. Compared with those unexposed, participants on a PIM at baseline were at an increased risk of persistent physical disability (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21, 1.80) and hospitalization (adjusted HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.20, 1.32), but had similar rates of disability-free survival (adjusted HR 1.02; 95% CI 0.93, 1.13) and death (adjusted HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.81, 1.05). These effects did not vary by polypharmacy status in interaction analyses. PIMs exposure was associated with higher risk of disability followed by hospitalization (adjusted HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.25, 2.96) as well as vice versa (adjusted HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.15, 2.05). PPIs, anti-psychotics and benzodiazepines, were associated with increased risk of disability. PIMs exposure is associated with subsequent increased risk of both incident disability and hospitalization. Increased risk of disability prior to hospitalization suggests that PIMs use may start the disability cascade in healthy older adults. Our findings emphasize the importance of caution when prescribing PIMs to older adults in otherwise good health.

Prediabetes, diabetes and loss of disability-free survival in a community-based older cohort: a post-hoc analysis of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial

Evidence for the prognostic implications of hyperglycaemia in older adults is inconsistent. To evaluate disability-free survival (DFS) in older individuals by glycaemic status. This analysis used data from a randomised trial recruiting 19,114 community-based participants aged ≥70years, who had no prior cardiovascular events, dementia and physical disability. Participants with sufficient information to ascertain their baseline diabetes status were categorised as having normoglycaemia (fasting plasma glucose [FPG] < 5.6mmol/l, 64%), prediabetes (FPG 5.6 to <7.0mmol/l, 26%) and diabetes (self-report or FPG ≥ 7.0mmol/l or use of glucose-lowering agents, 11%). The primary outcome was loss of disability-free survival (DFS), a composite of all-cause mortality, persistent physical disability or dementia. Other outcomes included the three individual components of the DFS loss, as well as cognitive impairment-no dementia (CIND), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and any cardiovascular event. Cox models were used for outcome analyses, with covariate adjustment using inverse-probability weighting. We included 18,816 participants (median follow-up: 6.9 years). Compared to normoglycaemia, participants with diabetes had greater risks of DFS loss (weighted HR: 1.39, 95% CI 1.21-1.60), all-cause mortality (1.45, 1.23-1.72), persistent physical disability (1.73, 1.35-2.22), CIND (1.22, 1.08-1.38), MACE (1.30, 1.04-1.63) and cardiovascular events (1.25, 1.02-1.54) but not dementia (1.13, 0.87-1.47). The prediabetes group did not have an excess risk for DFS loss (1.02, 0.93-1.12) or other outcomes. Among older people, diabetes was associated with reduced DFS, and higher risk of CIND and cardiovascular outcomes, whereas prediabetes was not. The impact of preventing or treating diabetes in this age group deserves closer attention.

Statins for extension of disability-free survival and primary prevention of cardiovascular events among older people: protocol for a randomised controlled trial in primary care (STAREE trial)

IntroductionThe world is undergoing a demographic transition to an older population. Preventive healthcare has reduced the burden of chronic illness at younger ages but there is limited evidence that these...

Sepsis-Associated Muscle Wasting: A Comprehensive Review from Bench to Bedside.

Sepsis-associated muscle wasting (SAMW) is characterized by decreased muscle mass, reduced muscle fiber size, and decreased muscle strength, resulting in persistent physical disability accompanied by sepsis. Systemic inflammatory cytokines are the main cause of SAMW, which occurs in 40-70% of patients with sepsis. The pathways associated with the ubiquitin-proteasome and autophagy systems are particularly activated in the muscle tissues during sepsis and may lead to muscle wasting. Additionally, expression of muscle atrophy-related genes Atrogin-1 and MuRF-1 are seemingly increased via the ubiquitin-proteasome pathway. In clinical settings, electrical muscular stimulation, physiotherapy, early mobilization, and nutritional support are used for patients with sepsis to prevent or treat SAMW. However, there are no pharmacological treatments for SAMW, and the underlying mechanisms are still unknown. Therefore, research is urgently required in this field.

POLYPHARMACY, FRAILTY, AND DISABILITY-FREE SURVIVAL IN COMMUNITY-DWELLING HEALTHY OLDER INDIVIDUALS

Abstract BACKGROUND Polypharmacy and frailty are two common geriatric syndromes. We examined the association between polypharmacy and frailty and if, together, they predicted disability-free survival (DFS), defined as time to the first event of dementia, persistent physical disability or death. METHODS We included 19,114 participants from the "ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly" (ASPREE) clinical trial. Polypharmacy was defined as regular, concomitant use of five or more prescription medications. Frailty was assessed using a modified Fried phenotype and a deficit accumulation frailty index (FI) of 66 items. The association between polypharmacy and frailty was assessed by multinomial logistic regression. In addition, Cox regression was used to determine the association between polypharmacy-exposed frailty and DFS. RESULTS Individuals with polypharmacy (vs. &amp;lt; 5 medications) were 55% more likely to be pre-frail (Relative Risk Ratio or RRR: 1.55; 95%Confidence Interval or CI:1.44, 1.68) and three times more likely to be frail (RRR: 3.34; 95%CI: 2.64, 4.22) according to Fried phenotype. Frail individuals had a two-fold reduction in their survival free of dementia/disability (Hazard ratio or HR: 2.16; 95%CI: 1.56, 2.99), whereas frail individuals with polypharmacy had a four-fold reduction (HR: 4.24; 95%CI: 3.28, 5.47). Effect sizes were more prominent when frailty was assessed using the FI than when assessed by Fried phenotype. CONCLUSION Polypharmacy was significantly associated with pre-frailty/frailty. Polypharmacy-exposed pre-frailty/frailty increased the risk of death, dementia or physical disability among older adults. Addressing polypharmacy in older people could ameliorate the impact of frailty on individuals’ functional status, cognition and survival.

POTENTIALLY INAPPROPRIATE MEDICATION USE INCREASES RISK OF INCIDENT DISABILITY IN HEALTHY OLDER ADULTS

Abstract Background Efforts to minimize medication risks among older adults include avoidance of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs). However, most PIMs research has focussed on aged or inpatient care, creating an evidence gap for community-dwelling older adults. To address this, we investigated the impact of PIMs use in the ASPREE clinical trial. Methods ASPREE enrolled 19,114 community-dwelling participants aged 70+ years (65+ if US minorities) without a history of major cardiovascular disease, cognitive impairment, and significant physical disability. PIMs was defined according to a modified 2019 AGS Beers Criteria. Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to estimate the association between baseline PIMs exposure, and disability-free survival, death, disability, and hospitalization, with adjustment for comorbidities including frailty. Results At baseline, 7396 (39% of total) participants were prescribed at least one PIM. Compared with those unexposed, participants on a PIM at baseline were at an increased risk of persistent physical disability (Adjusted HR 1.47, 95%CI 1.21, 1.80) and hospitalization (Adjusted HR 1.26, 95%CI 1.20, 1.32), but had similar rates of disability free survival and death. These effects did not vary by polypharmacy status. PIMs exposure was associated with higher risk of disability followed by hospitalization (Adjusted HR 1.92, 95%CI 1.25, 2.96) as well as vice versa (Adjusted HR 1.54, 95%CI 1.15, 2.05). Conclusions: PIMs exposure is associated with increased risk of incident disability and hospitalization. Increased risk of disability prior to hospitalization suggests that PIMs use may start the disability cascade, emphasizing the importance of caution when prescribing PIMs for community-dwelling older adults.

GFR Variability, Survival, and Cardiovascular Events in Older Adults

Variability in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over time is often observed, but it is unknown whether this variation is clinically important. We investigated the association between eGFR variability and survival free of dementia or persistent physical disability (disability-free survival) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, or CVD death). Post hoc analysis. 12,549 participants of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial. Participants were without documented dementia, major physical disability, previous CVD, and major life-limiting illness at enrollment. eGFR variability. Disability-free survival and CVD events. eGFR variability was estimated using the standard deviation of eGFR measurements obtained from participants' baseline, first, and second annual visits. Associations between tertiles of eGFR variability with disability-free survival and CVD events occurring after the eGFR variability estimation period were examined. During median follow-up of 2.7 years after the second annual visit, 838 participants died, developed dementia, or acquired a persistent physical disability; 379 had a CVD event. The highest tertile of eGFR variability had an increased risk of death/dementia/disability (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.14-1.59) and CVD events (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.06-1.77) compared with the lowest tertile after covariate adjustment. These associations were present in patients with and without chronic kidney disease at baseline. Limited representation of diverse demographics. In older, generally healthy adults, higher variability in eGFR over time predicts increased risk of future death/dementia/disability and CVD events.

The effect of depressive symptoms on disability-free survival in healthy older adults: A prospective cohort study.

Gerontology and ageing research are increasingly focussing on healthy life span (healthspan), the period of life lived free of serious disease and disability. Late-life depression (LLD) is believed to impact adversely on physical health. However, no studies have examined its effect on healthspan. This study investigated the effect of LLD and subthreshold depression on disability-free survival, a widely accepted measure of healthspan. This prospective cohort study used data from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly study. Participants were aged ≥70 years (or ≥65 years for African-American and Hispanic participants) and free of dementia, physical disability and cardiovascular disease. Depressive symptoms were measured using the 10-item Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10). LLD and subthreshold depression were defined as CES-D-10 scores ≥8 and 3-7, respectively. Disability-free survival was defined as survival free of dementia and persistent physical disability. A total of 19,110 participants were followed up for a maximum of 7.3 years. In female participants, LLD was associated with lower disability-free survival adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, medical comorbidities, polypharmacy, physical function and antidepressant use (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.23-1.82). In male participants, LLD was associated with lower disability-free survival adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.03-1.64). Subthreshold depression was also associated with lower disability-free survival in both sexes. LLD may be a common and important risk factor for shortened healthspan.

Cognitive Trajectories in Community-Dwelling Older Adults and Incident Dementia, Disability and Death: A 10-Year Longitudinal Study.

ObjectiveThe inter-individual variability in cognitive changes may be early indicators of major health events. We aimed to determine whether late-life cognitive trajectories were associated with incident dementia, persistent physical disability and all-cause mortality.MethodsData came from a cohort of older community-dwelling individuals aged 70 years or above in Australia and the United States. Global cognition, verbal fluency, episodic memory and psychomotor speed were assessed regularly at up to seven waves between 2010 and 2017. Dementia, disability in activities of daily living, and death were adjudicated between 2017 and 2020. Latent classes of cognitive trajectories over seven years were determined using group-based trajectory modeling. Multivariable logistic regression was used for the prospective associations between cognitive trajectories and these outcomes.ResultsCognitive trajectories were defined for 16,174 participants (mean age: 78.9 years; 56.7% female) who were alive and without incident dementia or disability by 2017, among which 14,655 participants were included in the association analysis. Between three and five trajectory classes were identified depending on the cognitive test. Cognitive trajectories were strongly associated with the risk of dementia. For example, compared to those in the highest-functioning trajectory, the worst performers of episodic memory had a 37-fold increased risk of dementia (95% CI: 17.23–82.64). The lowest trajectories of both global cognition and episodic memory also predicted increased mortality risk (OR: 1.80, 95% CI: 1.28–2.52; OR: 1.61, 95% CI: 1.09–2.36, respectively), while only slow psychomotor speed was marginally associated with physical disability (OR: 2.39, 95% CI: 0.99–5.77).ConclusionsIn older individuals, cognitive trajectories appear to be early indicators of clinically relevant health outcomes. Systematic cognitive assessments as part of routine geriatric evaluation may facilitate early identification and interventions for those individuals at highest risk.

Post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection: relationship of central nervous system manifestations with physical disability and systemic inflammation.

Despite the multitude of clinical manifestations of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), studies applying statistical methods to directly investigate patterns of symptom co-occurrence and their biological correlates are scarce. We assessed 30 symptoms pertaining to different organ systems in 749 adults (age = 55 ± 14 years; 47% female) during in-person visits conducted at 6-11 months after hospitalization due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), including six psychiatric and cognitive manifestations. Symptom co-occurrence was initially investigated using exploratory factor analysis (EFA), and latent variable modeling was then conducted using Item Response Theory (IRT). We investigated associations of latent variable severity with objective indices of persistent physical disability, pulmonary and kidney dysfunction, and C-reactive protein and D-dimer blood levels, measured at the same follow-up assessment. The EFA extracted one factor, explaining 64.8% of variance; loadings were positive for all symptoms, and above 0.35 for 16 of them. The latent trait generated using IRT placed fatigue, psychiatric, and cognitive manifestations as the most discriminative symptoms (coefficients > 1.5, p < 0.001). Latent trait severity was associated with decreased body weight and poorer physical performance (coefficients > 0.240; p ⩽ 0.003), and elevated blood levels of C-reactive protein (coefficient = 0.378; 95% CI 0.215-0.541; p < 0.001) and D-dimer (coefficient = 0.412; 95% CI 0.123-0.702; p = 0.005). Results were similar after excluding subjects with pro-inflammatory comorbidities. Different symptoms that persist for several months after moderate or severe COVID-19 may unite within one latent trait of PASC. This trait is dominated by fatigue and psychiatric symptoms, and is associated with objective signs of physical disability and persistent systemic inflammation.

Prediction of disability-free survival in healthy older people

Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6–77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583)

Chaenomeles Fructus (CF), the Fruit of Chaenomeles sinensis Alleviates IL-1β Induced Cartilage Degradation in Rat Articular Chondrocytes

Osteoarthritis (OA) causes persistent pain, joint dysfunction, and physical disability. It is the most prevalent type of degenerative arthritis, affecting millions of people worldwide. OA is currently treated with a focus on pain relief, inflammation control, and artificial joint surgery. Hence, a therapeutic agent capable of preventing or delaying the progression of OA is needed. OA is strongly associated with the degeneration of the articular cartilage and changes in the ECM, which are primarily associated with a decrease in proteoglycan and collagen. In the progress of articular cartilage degradation, catabolic enzymes, such as matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs), are activated by IL-1β stimulation. Given the tight relationship between IL-1β and ECM (extra-cellular matrix) degradation, this study examined the effects of Chaenomeles Fructus (CF) on IL-1β-induced OA in rat chondrocytes. The CF treatment reduced IL-1β-induced MMP3/13 and ADAMTS-5 production at the mRNA and protein levels. Similarly, CF enhanced col2a and aggrecan accumulation and chondrocyte proliferation. CF inhibited NF-κB (nuclear factor kappa B) activation, nuclear translocation induced by IL-1β, reactive oxygen species (ROS) production, and ERK phosphorylation. CF demonstrated anti-OA and articular regeneration effects on rat chondrocytes, thus, suggesting that CF is a viable and fundamental therapeutic option for OA.