Persistence Of African Swine Fever Research Articles

Risk factors for African swine fever spread in wild boar in the Russian Federation

The analysis and assessment of risk factors associated with the occurrence, spread and persistence of African swine fever (ASF) virus in wild boar population are an important tool in determining the strategic measures aimed at eradicating epizootics and mitigating their consequences. A thorough examination of foreign and domestic literature revealed that wild boar population management factors, socio-economic and environmental ones, that mainly account for the density and number of animals were the most significant and associated with the risk of ASF outbreak occurrence in wild animals. In order to identify risk factors for the spread of the disease in wild boar in the Russian Federation Subjects, a regression model was built to examine the relationship between the annual number of ASF outbreaks in wild boar at the municipal raion level, wild boar population density and some other factors for the period between 2007 and 2022. Based on the Subject-level regression modelling results, a positive association between the intensity of the disease outbreaks and wild boar population density was identified in 42.5% of the model regions of the Russian Federation. Other significant factors were the length of roads, the presence of forest cover and outbreaks in domestic pigs. However, on the whole, for all the infected Subjects, the regression model demonstrated the failure of the wild boar population density factor to explain the observed ASF outbreak distribution, and this may be indicative of the existence of other epizootic drivers of the disease spread in the wild. One of such mechanisms may be the persistence of infectious potential in the external environment and in the formed stationary local foci of African swine fever, despite the anti-epizootic measures taken, including the measures aimed at regulating the number of susceptible population – depopulation.

Behavior of Wild Pigs toward Conspecific Carcasses: Implications for Disease Transmission in a Hot, Semiarid Climate

Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) are a prolific, invasive species in the United States of America and act as vectors for many pathogens. An emerging pathogen of concern to the USA is African swine fever (ASF), a deadly viral disease affecting swine that is endemic to Africa and has spread to parts of Europe, Asia, and the Caribbean. ASF affects both wild and domesticated pigs and can be transmitted via several avenues, including interactions between and consumption of dead pigs by their live conspecifics. As wild pigs are considered a serious threat in the transmission of ASF, understanding the behavior of wild pigs towards their dead conspecifics is imperative when considering the transmission of ASF and other diseases in the USA. We placed camera traps at a sample of wild pig carcasses dispatched during four aerial shooting events between November, 2020, and June, 2022, at East Foundation’s San Antonio Viejo Ranch, South Texas. We recorded visitation events to carcasses by live wild pigs and recorded their behavior. Furthermore, we assessed daily carcass decomposition rates by visiting carcass sites without cameras. We found no evidence of cannibalism and recorded live wild pig visitations to only 33% of carcasses before advanced stages of decomposition were reached. Carcass decomposition was rapid (2.5 to 3 days), regardless of season, and the time to the first visitation and investigation of carcasses by live conspecifics was quicker than has been recorded in Europe. We posit that active scavenger guilds at our study site, coupled with high temperatures, result in the rapid decomposition of wild pig carcasses, which reduces opportunities for live wild pigs to interact with them when compared to milder climates. We suggest additional research investigating the persistence of ASF in hot, arid climates and the interactions between live pigs and the skeletonized remains of conspecifics.

Exploring the dynamics of African swine fever transmission cycles at a wildlife-livestock interface

African swine fever (ASF), a contagious disease of pigs, can be economically devastating. At a wildlife–livestock interface, depending on the presence and interactions of domestic pigs, wild pigs, and soft ticks, three transmission cycles have been proposed for the persistence of ASF: a wild pig-domestic pig-tick cycle, a domestic pig-tick cycle, and a domestic pig cycle, but to date, their relative importance on the outbreak and persistence of the disease is not clear. A stochastic model that considers these cycles is formulated and analysed to assess their impacts on the outbreak and persistence of the disease. Using a multitype branching process approximation, it is shown that all cycles can result in very large probabilities of disease outbreaks. Numerical results show that the disease can be endemic if the ticks are not controlled. If ticks are controlled, disease extinction is certain, regardless of the cycle, but the time to extinction can be long. These findings have important implications for the prevention and control of ASF outbreaks at a wildlife–livestock interface.

African swine fever endemic persistence in wild boar populations: Key mechanisms explored through modelling.

African swine fever (ASF) is a serious global concern from an ecological and economic point of view. While it is well established that its main transmission routes comprise contact between infected and susceptible animals and transmission through contaminated carcasses, the specific mechanism leading to its long‐term persistence is still not clear. Among others, a proposed mechanism involves the potential role of convalescent individuals, which would be able to shed the virus after the end of the acute infection. Using a spatially explicit, stochastic, individual‐based model, we tested: (1) if ASF can persist when transmission occurs only through infected wild boars and infected carcasses; (2) if the animals that survive ASF can play a relevant role in increasing ASF persistence chances; (3) how hunting pressure can affect the ASF probability to persist. The scenario in which only direct and carcass‐mediated transmission were contemplated had 52% probability of virus persistence 10 years after the initial outbreak. The inclusion of survivor‐mediated transmission corresponded to slightly higher persistence probabilities (57%). ASF prevalence during the endemic phase was generally low, ranging 0.1–0.2%. The proportion of seropositive individuals gradually decreased with time and ranged 4.5–6.6%. Our results indicate that direct and carcass‐mediated infection routes are sufficient to explain and justify the long‐term persistence of ASF at low wild boar density and the ongoing geographic expansion of the disease front in the European continent. During the initial years of an ASF outbreak, hunting should be carefully evaluated as a management tool, in terms of potential benefits and negative side‐effects, and combined with an intensive effort for the detection and removal of wild boar carcasses. During the endemic phase, further increasing hunting effort should not be considered as an effective strategy. Additional effort should be dedicated to finding and removing as many wild boar carcasses as possible.

ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures.

EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation. A narrative literature review updated the knowledge on the mortality rate, the duration of protective immunity and maternal antibodies and transmission parameters. In addition, parameters potentially leading to prolonged virus circulation (persistence) in wild boar populations were reviewed. A stochastic explicit model was used to evaluate the dynamics of virus prevalence, seroprevalence and the number of carcasses attributed to ASF. Secondly, the impact of four scenarios on the duration of ASF virus (ASFV) persistence was evaluated with the model, namely a: (1) prolonged, lifelong infectious period, (2) reduction in the case‐fatality rate and prolonged transient infectiousness; (3) change in duration of protective immunity and (4) change in the duration of protection from maternal antibodies. Only the lifelong infectious period scenario had an important prolonging effect on the persistence of ASF. Finally, the model tested the performance of different proposed surveillance strategies to provide evidence of the absence of virus circulation (Exit Strategy). A two‐phase approach (Screening Phase, Confirmation Phase) was suggested for the Exit Strategy. The accuracy of the Exit Strategy increases with increasing numbers of carcasses collected and tested. The inclusion of active surveillance based on hunting has limited impact on the performance of the Exit Strategy compared with lengthening of the monitoring period. This performance improvement should be reasonably balanced against an unnecessary prolonged ‘time free’ with only a marginal gain in performance. Recommendations are provided for minimum monitoring periods leading to minimal failure rates of the Exit Strategy. The proposed Exit Strategy would fail with the presence of lifelong infectious wild boar. That said, it should be emphasised that the existence of such animals is speculative, based on current knowledge.

Modelling the transmission and persistence of African swine fever in wild boar in contrasting European scenarios

African swine fever (ASF) is a severe viral disease that is currently spreading among domestic pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa) in large areas of Eurasia. Wild boar play a key role in the spread of ASF, yet despite their significance, little is known about the key mechanisms that drive infection transmission and disease persistence. A mathematical model of the wild boar ASF system is developed that captures the observed drop in population density, the peak in infected density and the persistence of the virus observed in ASF outbreaks. The model results provide insight into the key processes that drive the ASF dynamics and show that environmental transmission is a key mechanism determining the severity of an infectious outbreak and that direct frequency dependent transmission and transmission from individuals that survive initial ASF infection but eventually succumb to the disease are key for the long-term persistence of the virus. By considering scenarios representative of Estonia and Spain we show that faster degradation of carcasses in Spain, due to elevated temperature and abundant obligate scavengers, may reduce the severity of the infectious outbreak. Our results also suggest that the higher underlying host density and longer breeding season associated with supplementary feeding leads to a more pronounced epidemic outbreak and persistence of the disease in the long-term. The model is used to assess disease control measures and suggests that a combination of culling and infected carcass removal is the most effective method to eradicate the virus without also eradicating the host population, and that early implementation of these control measures will reduce infection levels whilst maintaining a higher host population density and in some situations prevent ASF from establishing in a population.

The epidemiological status of African swine fever in domestic swine herds in the Tavush Province region, Armenia.

KEEN The factors associated with the spread and persistence of African swine fever (ASF) in the Caucasus region remain to be fully identified. It is assumed that large naive populations of domestic free-ranging and wild pigs are critical to disease transmission and maintenance. Nonetheless, 11 years since its epidemic introduction into the region in 2007, ASF virus (ASFV) is still circulating, suggesting that an endemic cycle has been established based on contact between free-ranging domestic pigs and wild pigs, and that native Ornithodoros ticks probably serve as reservoirs for the virus. Therefore, research is required to gather information on the epidemiological status of ASF in the Caucasus region, focusing particularly on understanding modes of ASFV spread and persistence in this new virus environment. The authors established an ASFV survey targeting domestic pigs in the Tavush province of northern Armenia, an area of the country considered to be at high risk of disease incursion/occurrence. All tested samples collected for this survey were negative for ASF. The probability of observing no reactors by antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in a sample of this size (n = 1,506) from a population with an estimated disease prevalence of 1% is very low (< 0.0001). Therefore, it is possible but very unlikely for ASFV to be present among domestic pigs in the Tavush province region.

Research gap analysis on African swine fever.

The most significant knowledge gaps in the prevention and control of African swine fever (ASF) were identified by the EU Veterinary services and other stakeholders involved in pig production and wild boar management through an online survey. The respondents were asked to identify the major research needs in order to improve short‐term ASF risk management. Four major gaps were identified: ‘wild boar’, ‘African swine fever virus (ASFV) survival and transmission’, ‘biosecurity’ and ‘surveillance’. In particular, the respondents stressed the need for better knowledge on wild boar management and surveillance, and improved knowledge on the possible mechanism for spread and persistence of ASF in wild boar populations. They indicated the need for research on ASFV survival and transmission from the environment, different products such as feed and feed materials, and potential arthropod vector transmission. In addition, several research topics on biosecurity were identified as significant knowledge gaps and the need to identify risk factors for ASFV entry into domestic pig holdings, to develop protocols to implement specific and appropriate biosecurity measures, and to improve the knowledge about the domestic pig–wild boar interface. Potential sources of ASFV introduction into unaffected countries need to be better understood by an in‐depth analysis of the possible pathways of introduction of ASFV with the focus on food, feed, transport of live wild boars and human movements. Finally, research on communication methods to increase awareness among all players involved in the epidemiology of ASF (including truck drivers, hunters and tourists) and to increase compliance with existing control measures was also a topic mentioned by all stakeholders.

Spatial epidemiology of African swine fever: Host, landscape and anthropogenic drivers of disease occurrence in wild boar

Host abundance and landscape structure often interact to shape spatial patterns of many wildlife diseases. Emergence, spread, and persistence of African swine fever (ASF) among wild boar in eastern Europe has raised questions on the factors underlying ASF dynamics in this novel host-pathogen system. This work identifies drivers of ASF occurrence in natural wild boar population. We evaluated factors shaping the probability of ASF-postitive wild boar during the first three years (2014-2016) of the ASF epidemic in Poland. We expected to observe positive effects of wild boar density, proportion of forested area, human activity, and proximity to previous infections on ASF case probability. We tested these predictions using the infection status of 830 wild boar samples and generalized mixed-effects models. The probability of ASF case increased from 3 to 20% as population density rose from 0.4 to 2 ind./km2. The positive effect of population density on ASF case probability was stronger at locations near previous ASF incidents. ASF was more likely to occur in forested areas, with the probability of detecting an ASF positive sample rising from 2 to 11% as forest cover around the sample increased from 0.5 to 100%. This pattern was consistent at both low and high wild boar densities. Indicators of human activity were poor predictors of ASF occurrence. Disease control efforts, such as culling and carcass search, should be focused on high-density populations where chances of detecting and eliminating ASF-positive wild boar are higher. The intensity of control measures should decrease with distance from the infected area to match the observed spatial pattern of ASF case probability. Woodlands represent areas of the highest risk of ASF case occurrence. Distribution and connectivity of suitable habitats over the landscape can be used to prioritize disease-management actions.

Simulation of transmission and persistence of African swine fever in wild boar in Denmark

African swine fever (ASF) is caused by ASF virus (ASFV) and is currently circulating in the eastern part of Europe posing a serious risk regarding transmission to western European countries. Wild boar is a main driver of the transmission and persistence of ASFV in the endemic infected countries in Europe. Some European countries free from ASF, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, have limited population sizes of wild boar, but have large swine productions. In these countries, the patterns of transmission and persistence of ASFV in the existing wild boar population, in case of introduction of ASFV, are unknown. It is important to get a better understanding of ASFV in these wild boar populations, in order to better manage the existing wild boar population and thereby minimize the risk of virus introduction and transmission to domestic pigs, in case of an ASFV incursion. We created an agent-based spatio-temporal model and simulated the transmission of ASFV within Danish wild boar populations, using actual landscape data. The model was run with 50 and 100 wild boar groups used as initial population sizes, respectively, either distributed across the southern part of the mainland (Jutland) or across both the southern and middle parts of Jutland, where wild boar groups are believed to exist. At first, the model was run without ASFV for 25 years to assess wild boar population dynamics in both regions. Thereafter, ASFV was added to the model 1 year after initiation and run for up to another 4 years. The model predicted that wild boar populations may increase drastically over the next 25 years, if wild boar groups were distributed across both southern and middle Jutland and no mitigation actions were taken, while the population sizes will be restricted, if groups were distributed only across the southern part of Jutland. The density of the population is an important factor affecting the transmission and persistency of the disease. Model results indicated that ASF epidemics in the simulated populations would generally persist for few months. However, due to the high stochasticity of the process, in certain situations the epidemics may last for more than one year, posing a serious risk of ASFV introduction to domestic pigs.

Spatial dynamics of transmission and persistence of African swine fever in wild boar populations: insight for control

Spatial dynamics of transmission and persistence of African swine fever in wild boar populations: insight for control

Prevalence and spatiotemporal distribution of African swine fever in Lithuania, 2014\u20132017

BackgroundThe emergence in 2014 and persistence of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Lithuania has been linked to infected wild boar movement and close contact with the carcasses of other infected wild boars. Over time the number of reported cases of ASF in wild boars gradually increased, but no detailed epidemiological data has been available. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to determine ASF virus prevalence in wild boars and domestic pigs during the 2014–2017 period and further explore the current geographical distribution of the virus.ResultsOur study results show that ASF virus prevalence in hunted wild boars using PCR analysis increased from 0.83% (95% CI 0.69–0.98) to 2.27% (95% CI 2.05–2.48) from 2014 to 2016 respectively. However, there was a dramatic jump in the number of ASF positive wild boars cases in 2017 resulting in prevalence of 12.39% (95% CI 11.91–12.86) (p < 0.05).The average prevalence of ASF-specific antibodies in wild boar population during years 2014–2017 was 0.45% (95% CI 0.39–0.51) based on ELISA test results.Prevalence of ASF virus in domestic pigs ranged from 0.24% (95% CI 0.17% - 0.32) in 2015 to 2.74% (95% CI 2.33% - 3.15) in 2017. The average seasonal prevalence of ASF virus in pigs was statistically significant (p < 0.05) and ranged from 0% in spring to 3.68% (95% CI 3.32–4.05) in summer. Correlation between the pig density and number of recorded pig ASF cases in affected regions was only found in 2017 (R = 0.78, p < 0.05). No correlation was detected between the wild boar density and number of recorded pig or wild boar ASF - positive cases.ConclusionsThis study provides the first results of ASF virus prevalence changes in Lithuania during the 2014–2017. The overall results confirm the relatively high prevalence of ASF virus in wild boar that was gradually increasing from 2014 to 2017. In the last year of study, the number of ASF positive cases in both domestic pigs and wild boars had unexpectedly increased several times. A better understanding of current status of the disease will enable better control and prevent further spread of ASF virus in Western Europe.

Evaluation of biological and socio-economic factors related to persistence of African swine fever in Sardinia

Despite the implementation of several eradication programmes, African swine fever (ASF), a viral disease in pigs caused by a DNA virus (ASFV), has been present in Sardinia (Italy) since 1978. Several studies have been carried out on the epidemiology of ASF in Sardinia, aimed at attaining a better understanding of the role of the risk factors related to ASFV persistence, but those studies did not address the social aspects involved. This work sought to bridge this gap, identifying the main social risk factors associated with ASF persistence. With this aim, this study takes into account not only the known “biological” risk factors identified in previous studies, but also the direct correlation between ASF persistence and well-known socio-economic aspects. The demographic characteristics, the Material Deprivation Index (IDM) and the non-compliance with the rules on ASF controls, including the traditional method of keeping free-range pigs has been evaluated. To assess the weight of each risk factor, data about pig farms, wild boar and social factors in Sardinia, were analysed using the Negative Binomial Regression Model. The main outcome was the number of domestic pig outbreaks occurring in Sardinian during 2011–2016. The effect in terms of the odds ratio (OR) was calculated to each factor included. The biological risk factors identified covered the number of animals (OR = 3.33, p < .0001, by 100 animals) and farms (OR = 1.07, p = .006, by 10 farms), the animal movements (OR = 1.64, p = .001, by 10 movements), the presence of illegal pigs (OR = 6.87, p < .0001) and the ASFV prevalence in wild boars (OR = 1.30, p = .001). Among the socio-economic factors, the compliance with control measures (OR = 0.90, p < .0001), the human population increasing by 1000 people (OR = 0.89, p < .0001), the growing age of the farmers (OR = 0.66, p = .025, by 5 years) and non-relationships with other farms (OR = 0.85, p < .001), decreased the ASF risk. The deprived condition (i.e. cultural and material deprivation, lack of resources and overcrowding index) increases the risk of about four times, as the low educational level (OR = 3.97, p = .002). Having highlighted the important role of social conditions, this risk definition allows understanding the Sardinian situation and may be useful to decision-makers to draft specific control strategies against this disease in the island, which should take into account local risk factors.

A rapid risk assessment of African swine fever introduction and spread in Japan based on expert opinions.

A rapid risk assessment was conducted using a questionnaire composed of 10 questions asking experts in African swine fever (ASF) to identify and rank the potential risk factors associated with the introduction and spread of ASF in Japan. The experts participating in this risk assessment considered illegal food import, followed by transport routes and foreign workers, to be the most relevant pathway of ASF introduction into Japan. Kanto and Kyushu were identified as the most likely regions for ASF introduction. All experts agreed that China is the most likely source of ASF introduction into Japan. Most Japanese experts were of the view that the risk of ASF spread if introduced into Japan would be low, while foreign experts considered the risk to be moderate or high. Most experts answered that wild boars would play an important role in the persistence of ASF if the disease were to spread in Japan.

Serological Surveillance and Direct Field Searching Reaffirm the Absence of Ornithodoros Erraticus Ticks Role in African Swine Fever Cycle in Sardinia.

African swine fever (ASF), one of the most important diseases of swine, has been endemic in the Italian island of Sardinia for more than 35years. During these decades, several strategies and eradication efforts have been implemented in the island with limited success. Strong climatic and ecological similarities exist between Sardinia and one area of the Iberian Peninsula where Ornithodoros erraticus ticks were involved in the persistence of ASF from 1960 to 1995. This fact leads to the hypothesis that, potentially, Ornithodoros ticks could be also involved in the ASF cycle in Sardinia, thus accounting for some of the reoccurring ASF outbreaks in this island. Initial efforts aimed at detection of Ornithodoros ticks in Sardinia were performed during the 1970s/1980s with no positive results. Accordingly, the absence of Ornithodoros ticks in Sardinia has been generally accepted. However, since a new and reinforced ASF eradication programme has been recently launched in Sardinia, it is essential to clarify the presence and role of these soft ticks in the epizootiology of ASF in this island. For that purpose, 1767 porcine serum samples collected from all around the island (1261 from domestic and 506 from wild boar) were analysed by ELISA for antibodies to salivary antigens of Ornithodoros erraticus. In addition, Ornithodoros ticks were directly searched in a number of pig premises that have suitable habitats for these ticks and were located in areas repeatedly affected by ASF. Only one serum sample resulted positive in the serological assay, and no Ornithodoros ticks were collected in none of the premises. These results indicate that these soft tick species are not involved in the epizootic cycle of ASF in Sardinia and highlight the importance of controlling other risk factors still present in the island for effectively eradicate the disease.

African swine fever in wild boar in Europe: a notable challenge

AFRICAN swine fever (ASF) has recently emerged in several European countries, with cases often linked to the movement of native Eurasian wild boar ( Sus scrofa ). ASF is devastating...

Relationship between the persistence of African swine fever and the distribution of Ornithodoros erraticus in the province of Salamanca, Spain.

For some time it has been known that the tick Ornithodoros erraticus might be one of the causes of the persistence of African swine fever in the Iberian Peninsula since its introduction in 1960. In the province of Salamanca serological methods have been used to study the relationship between the presence of the tick in different townships and the outbreaks of African swine fever in these townships between 1987 and 1992. The results showed that there was a statistically significant association between the presence of the parasite and the persistence of African swine fever. In townships without O erraticus traditional methods of control are in most cases enough to avoid new outbreaks of the disease, but in areas with O erraticus the traditional methods should be reinforced by other methods for preventing contact between pigs and the parasite.

The persistence of African swine fever in Africa and the Mediterranean

African swine fever (ASF) virus is maintained in Africa primarily by a cycle of infection between wart hogs and soft ticks (Ornithodoros moubata) in which ticks may become infected by feeding on young wart hogs, which are viraemic for only a short period after birth. Infected ticks constitute a permanent reservior of infection for domestic pigs, which may become infected by the bite of infected ticks or the ingestion of infected wart hog tissues. In the Mediterraean region, ASF in enzootic in Spain, Portugal and Sardinia. The main factors contributing to persistence in the Iberian peninsula are the difficulty of detecting disease caused by the newer, less virulent viruses, extensive systems of husbandry, increased production and trade in pigs, the excess concentration of pig farms in certain areas and the presence of soft tick vectors (Ornithodoros erraticus) in the south-west.