Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate Research Articles

Measuring RMB equilibrium exchange rate and misalignment in China: Application of BEER and PEER approaches

The study attempts to measure RMB real effective exchange rate (REER) equilibrium and its associated degree of misalignments for China using the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and permanent equilibrium exchange rate approaches. We use a range of economic fundamentals and employ yearly data covering the period 1980–2020, and apply the Johansen Cointegration test and other econometric methods for the study purpose. We find evidence of the existence of RMB real effective exchange rate equilibrium, and for most of the periods, the RMB REER is closer to its equilibrium level. We also find that the RMB REER misaligned with its equilibrium producing episodes of undervaluation and overvaluation, but the magnitude of the misalignments is small and the BEER approach produces a lower degree of misalignments. This suggests that the RMB undervaluation is moderate and not as exaggerated. We identify that the economic fundamentals used in this study are important determinants of RMB real effective exchange rate equilibrium. In line with the above, the study recommends that China may continue using its RMB exchange rate as its policy tool, but the policymakers should focus on the core fundamentals that derived the equilibrium exchange rate.

Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro–Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro–Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.

Measuring real exchange rate misalignment in Croatia: cointegration approach

The purpose of the paper is to analyze misalignment of the real exchange rate in Croatia. The misalignment analysis is conducted using the permanent equilibrium exchange rate approach. The equilibrium real exchange rate is computed using the cointegration approach whereby the real exchange rate and its fundamentals, namely terms of trade, net foreign assets and the ratio of prices of tradables to non-tradables are included in cointegration analysis. The Hodrick and Prescott filter is used to obtain permanent values of the equilibrium real exchange rate. The real exchange rate misalignment is computed as the deviation of the RER from its permanent equilibrium level. Four overvaluation periods and three undervaluation periods are recorded in Croatia in the observed period. Overvaluation periods are more often and of longer duration than undervaluation periods. However, the real exchange rate does not deviate largely from its estimated equilibrium value in the observed period, and it is neither overvalued nor undervalued constantly, but the periods alternate. Considering the results of the analysis, together with the empirical characteristics of Croatian economy, namely the high foreign currency indebtedness, highly euroized economy and underdeveloped export oriented sector, the depreciation of the real exchange rate is not recommended to economic policy makers and the current Croatian exchange rate policy is appropriate.

On equilibrium real exchange rates in euro area: Special focus on behavioral equilibrium exchange rates in Ireland and Greece

This paper focuses on the intra-euro-area imbalances. Therefore the first aim of this paper is to identify euro-area countries exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances. The subsequent aim is to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for these countries and to compute their degrees of real exchange rate misalignment. The intra-area balance is assessed using the Cluster Analysis and the Principle Component Analysis; on this basis Greece and Ireland are selected as the two euro-area countries with largest imbalances in 2010. Further the medium-run equilibrium exchange rates for Greece and Ireland are estimated applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach popularised by Clark and MacDonald (1998). In addition, the long-run equilibrium exchange rates are estimated using the Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER) model. Employing the BEER and PEER approaches on quarterly time series of real effective exchange rates (REER) from 1997: Q1 to 2010: Q4 we identify an undervaluation of the Greek and Irish REER around their entrance to the euro area. For the rest of the period analysed their REER is broadly in line with estimated BEER and PEER levels.

Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Azerbaijan

By using quarterly data from 2001-2007 and applying various approaches, we estimate real equilibrium exchange rate misalignment for Azerbaijani Manat (AZN) and find that AZN is slightly overvalued. Purchasing power parity approach does not explain the equilibrium exchange rate. However using behavioral and permanent equilibrium exchange rate approaches, we find that the relative productivity, terms of trade, trade openness, net foreign assets, government expenditures and oil prices are the main determinants of misalignment.

Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria

Abstract This paper seeks to estimate the long run behavioral equilibrium exchange rate in Nigeria. The empirical analysis builds on quarterly data from 1986Q1 to 2006Q4 and derives a Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and a Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER). The econometric analysis starts by analyzing the stochastic properties of the data and found all the variables stationary at first level of differencing. Accordingly, the paper proceeds by estimating vector-error correction models. Regression results show that most of the long-run behavior of the real exchange rate could be explained by real net foreign assets, terms of trade, index of crude oil volatility, index of monetary policy performance and government fiscal stance. On the basis of these fundamentals, four episodes each of overvaluation and undervaluation were identified and the antecedents characterizing the episodes were equally traced to the archive of exchange rate management in the country within the review period. Among others for instance, large inflow of oil revenues into the country and stable macroeconomic performance were discovered to account for undervaluation of the real exchange rate between 2001Q1 and 2006Q4 in Nigeria. The results further suggest that deviations from the equilibrium path are eliminated within one to two years. The paper recommends the pursuance of sound monetary policy as an instrument for achieving real exchange rate cum macroeconomic stability in Nigeria.

Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Azerbaijan

By using quarterly data from 2001-2007 and applying various approaches, we estimate real equilibrium exchange rate misalignment for Azerbaijani Manat (AZN) and find that AZN is slightly overvalued. Purchasing power parity approach does not explain the equilibrium exchange rate. However using behavioral and permanent equilibrium exchange rate approaches, we find that the relative productivity, terms of trade, trade openness, net foreign assets, government expenditures and oil prices are the main determinants of misalignment.

Has the Chinese currency been undervalued?

China's trade surplus reached a record $102 billion in 2005 while the US trade deficit of $717 billion accounted for 5.8% of US Gross Domestic Product in the same year. US policy makers claim China's currency is undervalued about 25 to 35% against the US dollar and they blame China for holding the value of the RMB weak to keep Chinese products competitive on prices in international markets. Given the unique situation in China, where the capital account is only partially convertible and the economy has been growing at an annual average rate of 10% over the last two decades, this paper empirically examines the magnitude of the exchange rate misalignment of China's RMB against the US dollar by using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER) models. Our results show that the RMB was undervalued by approximately 15% from 2002:Q2 to 2003:Q4; however, it is interesting to note that while the RMB was overvalued during 1997:Q4–2002:Q2, China experienced a huge trade surplus during that period.

Just How Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi?

Given that the value of China's currency has been hot topic recently, this paper explores the equilibrium levels of China's real and nominal exchange rates. Employing a Johansen cointegration framework, we focus on the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER) models. Our results suggest that, while the renminbi is somewhat undervalued against the dollar, the misalignment is not nearly as exaggerated as many popular claims.

Just How Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi?

Given that the value of China's currency has been a hot topic recently, this paper explores the equilibrium levels of China's real and nominal exchange rates. Employing a Johansen cointegration framework, we focus on the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER) models. Our results suggest that, while the renminbi is somewhat undervalued against the dollar, the misalignment is not nearly as exaggerated as many popular claims.

Filtering the BEER: A permanent and transitory decomposition

In this paper, we extend the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach which identifies an estimated equilibrium relationship between the real exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Here, the economic fundamentals (real interest rate differential, net foreign assets, and relative price of nontraded/traded goods) are decomposed using Johansen cointegration methods into transitory and permanent components, with the latter used to estimate the permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER) for the U.S. and Canadian dollars and the pound sterling. The BEER and the PEER move closely together for the U.S. and Canadian dollars and generally track the actual exchange rate. By contrast, for the pound sterling, the BEER and the PEER diverge sharply, with the latter following the actual exchange rate quite closely.

Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A BEER/PEER Approach

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the medium–term determinants of the euro effective exchange rate. The empirical analysis builds on synthetic quarterly data from 1975 to 1998, and derives a Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and a Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER). Four different specifications are retained, due to the difficulties encountered in specifying an encompassing model. The results indicate that differentials in real interest rates and productivity, and (in some specifications) the relative fiscal stance and the real price of oil, have a significant influence on the euro effective exchange rate. Assessing the existence and the extent of the over– or undervaluation of the exchange rate is not straightforward, since these different specifications often lead to contrasting findings. However, all four specifications point unambiguously to the undervaluation of the euro in 2000, although the extent of this undervaluation largely depends on the specification chosen.

Modelling the Long–run Real Effective Exchange Rate of the New Zealand Dollar

In this paper we use the behavioural and permanent equilibrium exchange rate approaches to produce long–run equilibrium exchange rates for the effective real exchange rates of the New Zealand dollar. We demonstrate that a well founded measure of the equilibrium value of the dollar may be recovered from a relatively small set of fundamental variables and that this can be used to produce an assessment of the dollar in terms of periods of misalignment.

Determinants of the Euro Real Effective Exchange Rate: A Beer/Peer Approach

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the medium-term determinants of the euro effective exchange rate. The empirical analysis builds on synthetic quarterly data from 1975 to 1998, and derives a Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and a Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER). Four different model specifications are retained, due to the difficulties encountered in specifying an encompassing model. Results indicate that differentials in real interest rates and productivity, and (in some specifications) the relative fiscal stance and the real price of oil, have a significant influence on the euro effective exchange rate. Assessing the existence and the extent of the over- or undervaluation of the exchange rate is not straightforward, since these different specifications often lead to contrasting findings. However, all four models point unambiguously to the undervaluation of the euro in 2000, although the extent of this undervaluation largely depends on the specification chosen JEL Classification: F31, F32

Filtering the Beer: A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition

In this paper we extend the BEER (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate) approach which identifies an estimated equilibrium relationship between the real exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Here the economic fundamentals are decomposed using Johansen cointegration methods into transitory and permanent components, with the latter used to estimate the Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate, or PEER, for the U.S. and Canadian dollars and the pound sterling. The BEER and the PEER move closely together for the U.S. and Canadian dollars and generally track the actual exchange rate. By contrast, for the pound sterling the BEER and the PEER diverge sharply, with the latter following the actual exchange rate quite closely.

Filtering the Beer: A Permanent and Transitory Decomposition

In this paper we extend the BEER (Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate) approach which identifies an estimated equilibrium relationship between the real exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Here the economic fundamentals are decomposed using Johansen cointegration methods into transitory and permanent components, with the latter used to estimate the Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate, or PEER, for the U.S. and Canadian dollars and the pound sterling. The BEER and the PEER move closely together for the U.S. and Canadian dollars and generally track the actual exchange rate. By contrast, for the pound sterling the BEER and the PEER diverge sharply, with the latter following the actual exchange rate quite closely.