Permanent Consumption Research Articles

The Consumption of Lifetime and consumption habits in the face of pandemic

The aim of this article is to present the concept of Consumption of Lifetime developed by the author and to show the impact of the phenomenon of digitalisation of society on decisions related to this concept. The author conducts an analysis in the context of consumption of lifetime to show the phenomenon of digitalisation and society’s consumption decisions. The process of digitalisation was particularly visible during the pandemic and the restrictions related to it, when education, work and interpersonal contacts were made possible with the use of devices connected to the Internet. These devices were also often used to make remote purchases. The implementation of the article made it possible to formulate research questions and conclusions that confirm the importance of considering decisions related to the consumption of lifetime in the period of ongoing digitalisation of society. Another interesting issue is the post-pandemic period, in which it is possible to observe whether consumption returns to the pre-pandemic state and previous purchasing behaviour. Currently, there is a noticeable tendency to return to the permanent consumption habits observed prior to the pandemic.

Сезонная динамика содержания тяжелых металлов и оценка загрязнения воды в реке Северная Двина (Архангельск)

The article presents the research results on the identification of seasonal variability in the values of physicochemical parameters and the metal content in the water of the Northern Dvina River. Sampling was carried out daily from January 23, 2020 to January 23, 2021 at low tide. In general, the researchers have revealed that the values of the studied parameters largely depend on the volume of seasonal river water runoff, on the underlying rocks of the river water basin, and also on anthropogenic influence. Thus, the values of pH, mineralization and a number of metals (Mg, Sr and Ba) are minimal during the flood period, which is explained by the large amount of melt water. Increased concentrations during the flood period are observed for Al, Mn, Cr, Zn, V, and Pb, which is associated with the dissolution of the underlying rocks and the runoff of winter precipitation in the form of melted snow. The researchers have determined elevated average content of natural elements Fe, Sr and Al, as well as anthropogenic metals Ni, Zn and Cr in the Northern Dvina relative to the average world concentration values. The calculation of water quality indices (HMEI, HMPL and HMTL) and public health risk indices (HI and CR) has revealed that the water in the Northern Dvina River has different levels of pollution, from mild to severe. However, the scientists have proved that permanent consumption of water as a drink can cause carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic effects. The main metals that contribute most to the index values are Fe, Ni, Al, Cr, Mn, Ba, and As. The study of the uranium content and its isotopes has revealed a large number of extremes, which does not allow drawing a conclusion about its seasonal dynamics, but the average value of the uranium content is similar to the global value for rivers.

Обеспечение населения России отечественной плодово-ягодной продукцией

The article highlights the problems of the importance and necessity of the permanent consumption of fresh and processed fruit and berry products, which are essential for human health as the main strategic resource of the economy of any state. The aim of the article is to demonstrate the possibilities of providing the population with fresh fruits, berries and processed products in the volume corresponding to the rational consumption norms, to determine the ways of improving the sustainable development of the domestic fruit subcomplex in the conditions of international sanctions. The methodology of the work is based on the use of official statistics, information from the Internet, as well as research of domestic scientists and economists in the field of food security. The results of the study showed that at the present stage the issues of consumption of fruit and berry products in the required quantity are relevant in all countries. The dynamics of the development of horticulture in the world and in Russia for the period 1960–2021 is analysed. It is shown that Russia has reduced its position in the area of perennial crops and gross harvest of fresh fruits and berries. At the same time, there is a positive trend in the growth of productivity, gross yield and per capita consumption in the period 2010–2021. Compared to developed countries, Russia is characterised by a low level of fruit consumption and a higher level of fruit juice consumption. The article states that it is impossible for the country to achieve self-sufficiency in the analysed products due to the following objective factors: natural and climatic conditions, rather high dependence on imports of finished products and resource components. In this regard, an integrated approach is needed, including both ways to increase domestic production and imports in amounts that do not threaten the country’s food security. The results of the article can be used to expand further scientific research in the field of providing the population with fresh and processed fruit and berry products.

Decoupling Analysis of Rural Population Change and Rural Electricity Consumption Change in China.

With the accelerated development of urbanization in China, rural permanent population has declined, while rural electricity consumption has increased, resulting in a significant waste of electricity resources. Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2007 to 2020, this paper comprehensively used the decoupling model and the coordination degree model to analyze the temporal change characteristics, spatial distribution characteristics, and the degree of deviation of rural permanent population and rural electricity consumption. Firstly, according to the decoupling model, the type of decoupling between rural electricity consumption and rural permanent population was strong negative decoupling. At the provincial level, Beijing and Tibet belonged to expanding negative decoupling. Tianjin and Liaoning belonged to recession link. The other 27 provinces, including Hebei, Shanxi, and Shandong, belonged to strong negative decoupling. Secondly, according to the coordination degree model, the coordination type of the national rural permanent population and rural electricity consumption was uncoordinated. The areas that can be coordinated include 20 provinces, including Shanghai, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, and Jiangxi. The basic coordination areas included Beijing and Tibet. Finally, according to the comprehensive measurement model, the provinces with strong negative decoupling included Shanxi, Zhejiang, and Chongqing. Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong, and Shaanxi belonged to moderately strong negative decoupling groups.

The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures

Abstract Using a structural life-cycle model, we quantify the heterogeneous impact of school closures during the corona crisis on children affected at different ages and coming from households with different parental characteristics. In the model, public investment through schooling is combined with parental time and resource investments in the production of child human capital at different stages in the children’s development process. We quantitatively characterise the long-term consequences from a COVID-19-induced loss of schooling, and find average losses in the present discounted value of lifetime earnings of the affected children of $2.1\%$, as well as welfare losses equivalent to about $1.2\%$ of permanent consumption. Because of self-productivity in the human capital production function, younger children are hurt more by the school closures than older children. The negative impact of the crisis on children’s welfare is especially severe for those with parents with low educational attainment and low assets.

Possibility for Production of Biogas from Manure in Bulgaria

The permanent consumption increasing of energy, foods, techniques and other goods and serviced worldwide leads to the intensifier of their production and to the constant market expansion. In turn, the processes taking place in some of these productions are responsible for the deterioration of the quality of the environment. Over the last decade, science and industry have followed the environmental policies and one of the developing approaches is being the use of by-products as raw materials for new production. The waste to energy technologies meets the requirements both of sustainable managing of wastes and energy production by sources with zero carbon footprint. Typical for this technological approach is its local application and in this study is performed an overview analysis of the possibilities for utilization of livestock manures in systems for production of biogas in Bulgaria. Based on the statistical data for number, and type of farm animals in the country for 2020, their localization, and the potential for gas production of their manure, the calculations were made. The obtained results are presented by regional division and it was estimated that total 1142 installation with 500 kWh capacity could be realized in the investigated farms plants. The obtained results are promising and they are prerequisite for further technological and economic investigations of this waste to energy technology

Empirical Analysis of Rational Expectation and Permanent Income Hypothesis in Lagos State, Nigeria

This study empirically analyses the rational expectation and permanent income hypothesis (PIH) in Lagos State, Nigeria using the ordinary least square method to estimate the long-run relationship and parsimonious error correction model to estimate short-run impacts. Our findings show that permanent income influences permanent monthly consumption in the short and long run but permanent monthly income does not impact temporary monthly consumption both in the short and long run. Financial regulation may be necessary to prevent a significant fall in the value of the portfolio of asset holdings by Lagos residents.

Association between Lifetime Tobacco Use and Alcohol Consumption Trajectories and Cardiovascular and Chronic Respiratory Diseases among Older People.

Background: We identify representative types of simultaneous tobacco use and alcohol consumption trajectories across the life course and estimate their association with cardiovascular and chronic respiratory diseases (CVDs and CRDs) among older people in Chile. Methods: We used data from a population-representative, face-to-face and longitudinal-retrospective survey focused on people aged 65–75 (N = 802). To reconstruct trajectory types, we employed weighted multichannel sequence analysis. Then, we estimated their associations with CVDs and CRDs through weighted logistic regression models. Results: Long-term exposure to tobacco use and alcohol consumption across life are associated with the highest CVD and CRD risks. Long-term nonsmokers and nondrinkers do not necessarily show the lowest CVDs and CRDs risks if these patterns are accompanied by health risk factors such as obesity or social disadvantages such as lower educational levels. Additionally, trajectories showing regular consumption in one domain but only in specific periods of life, whether early or late, while maintaining little or no consumption across life in the other domain, lead to lower CVDs or CRDs risks than trajectories indicating permanent consumption in both domains. Conclusions: A policy approach that considers CVDs and CRDs as conditions that strongly depend on previous individual experiences in diverse life domains can contribute to the improved design and evaluation of preventive strategies of tobacco use and alcohol consumption across the life course.

A statistical approach for sizing an aircraft electrical generator using extreme value theory

The sizing of aircraft electrical generators mainly depends on the electrical loads installed in the aircraft. Currently, the generator capacity is estimated by summing the critical loads, but this method tends to overestimate the generator capacity. A new method to challenge this approach is to use the electrical consumption recorded during flights and study the distribution of operational ratios between the actual consumption and the theoretical maximum consumption then size the future aircraft generators by applying a ratio to the theoretical value. This paper focuses on the application of extreme value theory on these operational ratios to estimate the maximal capacity utilization of a generator. A real data example is provided to illustrate the approach and estimate extreme quantiles and the right endpoint of the distribution of the ratios together with their approximate confidence interval in the nominal configuration. In all situations the right endpoint is proven to be finite and does not depend on the use procedures. This approach shows that ELA overestimates the maximal permanent consumption by 20% with error level of \(10^{-3}\) in the nominal configuration.

El consumo permanente bajo la concepción de Robert Hall. Un estudio econométrico para Sudamérica, 1960-2019

El consumo permanente bajo la concepción de Robert Hall. Un estudio econométrico para Sudamérica, 1960-2019

Role of brand attachment in customers’ evaluation of service failure

PurposeThis paper aims to examine the role of brand attachment as a relevant construct in customers’ evaluation after they face a service failure which impacts future consumer behaviors. It mainly answers the research question: does brand attachment cushion or amplify the effect of service failure on customers’ negative emotions?Design/methodology/approachA 2 × 2 × 2 experimental design was conducted. Data analysis was performed with ANOVA and moderated mediation.FindingsCustomer’s feelings toward a brand (brand attachment) that existed before a service failure occurred can regulate customer’s negative emotions especially when consumer attribute service failure to a controllable cause. This process minimizes the effect of service failure in customer’s satisfaction and consequently increase customer behaviors like word of mouth and loyalty intentions.Research limitations/implicationsAdding perceived intentionality as a service failure’s attribution could provide another layer of explanation of customer behavior. Also, an expanded study using a sector characterized by higher cost of change and permanent consumption could provide result’s generalizability.Practical implicationsBrand attachment should be included in the customer service strategy. In a service failure situation, brand attachment becomes part of the “service customer policy” helping customers to regulate their negative emotions.Originality/valueThis study fills the knowledge gap regarding the role of customers’ positive emotions toward brands when a service failure occurs. The current study extends branding literature by differentiating brand attachment role from coping tactics.

Sovereign Debt Standstills

As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of standstills using a standard default model. We find that a one-year standstill generates welfare gains for the sovereign equivalent to a permanent consumption increase of between 0.1% and 0.3%, depending on the initial shock. However, except when it avoids a default, the standstill also implies capital losses for creditors of between 9% and 27%, which is consistent with their reluctance to participate in these operations and indicates that this reluctance would persist even without a free-riding or holdout problem. Standstills also generate a form of “debt overhang” and thus the opportunity for a “voluntary debt exchange”: complementing the standstill with haircuts could reduce creditors’ losses and simultaneously increase welfare gains. Our results cast doubts on the emphasis on standstills without haircuts.

Weather shocks

How much do weather shocks matter? The literature addresses this question in two isolated ways: either by looking at long-term effects through the prism of calibrated theoretical models, or by focusing on both short and long terms through the lens of empirical models. We propose a framework that reconciles these two approaches by taking the theory to the data in two complementary ways. We first document the propagation mechanism of a weather shock using a Vector Auto-Regressive model on New Zealand Data. To explain the mechanism, we build and estimate a general equilibrium model with a weather-dependent agricultural sector to investigate the weather’s business cycle implications. We find that weather shocks: (i) explain about 35% of GDP and agricultural output fluctuations in New Zealand; (ii) entail a welfare cost of 0.30% of permanent consumption; (iii) critically increases the macroeconomic volatility under climate change, resulting in a higher welfare cost peaking to 0.46% in the worst case scenario of climate change.

Sovereign Debt Standstills

As a response to economic crises triggered by COVID-19, sovereign debt standstill proposals emphasize debt payment suspensions without haircuts on the face value of debt obligations. We quantify the effects of standstills using a standard default model. We find that a one-year standstill generates welfare gains for the sovereign equivalent to a permanent consumption increase of between 0.1% and 0.3%, depending on the initial shock. However, except when it avoids a default, the standstill also implies capital losses for creditors of between 9% and 27%, which is consistent with their reluctance to participate in these operations and indicates that this reluctance would persist even without a free-riding or holdout problem. Standstills also generate a form of 'debt overhang' and thus the opportunity for a 'voluntary debt exchange': complementing the standstill with haircuts could reduce creditors' losses and simultaneously increase welfare gains. Our results cast doubts on the emphasis on standstills without haircuts.

On the Welfare Cost of Consumption Fluctuations in the Presence of Memorable Goods

We propose a new classification of consumption goods into nondurable goods, durable goods and a new class which we call memorable goods. A good is memorable if a consumer can draw current utility from its past consumption experience through memory. We construct a novel consumption-savings model in which a consumer has a well-defined preference ordering over both nondurable goods and memorable goods. Memorable goods consumption differs from nondurable goods consumption in that current memorable goods consumption may also impact future utility through the accumulation process of the stock of memory. In our model, households optimally choose a lumpy profile of memorable goods consumption even in a frictionless world. Using Consumer Expenditure Survey data, we then document levels and volatilities of different groups of consumption goods expenditures, as well as their expenditure patterns, and show that the expenditure patterns on memorable goods indeed differ significantly from those on nondurable and durable goods. Finally, we empirically evaluate our model's predictions with respect to the welfare cost of consumption fluctuations and conduct an excess-sensitivity test of the consumption response to predictable income changes. We find that (i) the welfare cost of householdlevel consumption fluctuations may be overstated by 1:7 percentage points (11:9% points as opposed to 13:6% points of permanent consumption) if memorable goods are not appropriately accounted for; (ii) the finding of excess sensitivity of consumption documented in important papers of the literature might be entirely due to the presence of memorable goods.

The Welfare Cost of Inflation Risk under Imperfect Insurance

What are the costs of inflation fluctuations and who bears those costs? In this paper, we investigate this question by means of a quantitative incomplete-market, heterogenous-agent model wherein households hold real and nominal assets and are subject to both idiosyncratic labor income shocks and aggregate inflation risk. A key feature of our analysis is a nonhomothetic speci cation for households' preferences towards money and consumption goods. Unlike traditional speci cations, ours allows the model to reproduce the broad features of the distribution of monetary assets (in addition to being consistent with the distribution of nonmonetary assets). Inflation risk is found to generate signifi cant welfare losses for most households, i.e., between 1 and 1.5 percent of permanent consumption. The loss is small or even negative for households at the very top of the productivity and/or wealth distribution.

Legislative Measures Adopted at the International Level Against Fake News

Abstract Social media has become an informational decision-making vector due to the rapid transfer and permanent consumption of messages by the population. In this virtual environment, information changes its qualitative and quantitative form, from real, manipulated to a fabricated form. As information grows, it travels more rapidly, responding to the needs and expectations of individuals, and at the same time there are the dangers of its distortion and intoxication, affecting the perception of the receptors. Fake news is a phenomenon created by social media, in which the communication scheme is vicious, it occurs due to the lack of information of the users. Fake news produces confusion and distraction, leading to fragmented public opinion. At international level, the act of combating this phenomenon was implemented by the authorities on a legislative basis, adopting anti-fake news laws with drastic sanctions, which differ according to the form of government in each state. The first country in the world to introduce an anti-fake news law is Malaysia. And the first European democratic state to initiate two bills against false information is France.

Optimal fiscal transfers in a monetary union

We derive the optimal fiscal transfer scheme for countries in a monetary union to offset the welfare losses resulting from asymmetric shocks and nominal rigidities. Optimal transfers involve a tradeoff between reducing national output gaps and the provision of consumption insurance across countries, where the weight of the former increases relative to the latter as consumption home bias rises. The welfare gains from optimal transfers increase in wage rigidity and trade elasticities and are particularly large when risk-sharing through financial markets breaks down. For the average euro area economy, the welfare gains from optimal transfers range from 0.50% of permanent consumption under complete markets and low wage rigidity to 6.09% of permanent consumption under financial autarky and high wage rigidity.

Preliminary studies of 12S-8P and 12S-14P Hybrid-Excited Flux Switching Machine with FEC in radial direction by using JMAG-designer software

In this paper, design analysis of Hybrid- Excited Flux Switching Machine (H-EFSM) with 12Slot-8Pole (12S-8P) and 12Slot-14Pole (12S-14P) topologies are presented. H-EFSM has been introduced in which the advantage of Permanent Magnet (PM) machines and DC Field Excitation Coil (FEC) synchronous machines is combined. H-EFSM design proposed less permanent magnet consumption, high to torque/power density and high efficiency. In recent, most of H-EFSM having FEC arranged in theta direction that affect in flux production which cause less flux generation and machines performances. Therefore, a design of 12S-8P and 12S-14P H-EFSM with FEC arranged in radial direction is proposed to prevent flux cancellation and produce high flux linkage. Performance analysis of 12S-8P and 12S-14 H-EFSM such as PM flux, induced voltage, cogging torque and flux distribution are investigated by 2-D Finite Element Analysis (2D-FEA). A design with 12S-14P configuration has achieved the higher torque and power with 220.15Nm and 92.45kW, respectively at maximum field and armature current density

Out-of-Town Home Buyers and City Welfare

The major cities of the world have attracted a flurry of interest from out-of-town (OOT) home buyers. Such capital inflows in local real estate have implications for affordability through their effects on prices and rents, but also for construction, local labor markets, the spatial distribution of residents, and ultimately economic welfare. We develop a spatial equilibrium model of a city that features heterogeneous households that make optimal decisions on consumption, savings, labor supply, tenure status, and location. The model generates realistic wealth accumulation and home ownership patterns over the life-cycle and in the cross-section. An inflow of OOT real estate buyers pushes up prices, rents, and wages. It increases the concentration of young, high-productivity, and wealthy households in the city center (gentrification). When OOT investors buy 10% of the housing stock, city welfare goes down by 0.3% of permanent consumption levels. The average renter suffers a large welfare loss while the average owner gains modestly. We calibrate the model to the New York metro area using data on OOT purchases. The observed increase in OOT purchases is associated with 1.1\% higher house prices and a 0.1% welfare loss. A tax on OOT home buyers, as introduced in Vancouver, can reduce the welfare loss.