Periods Of Negative Growth Research Articles

Catching-Up and Falling Behind: Russian Economic Growth, 1690s–1880s

We provide decadal estimates of GDP per capita for the Russian Empire from the 1690s to the 1880s, making it possible for the first time to compare the economic performance of one of the world’s largest economies with other countries. Significant Russian economic growth before the 1760s resulted in catching-up on northwest Europe, but this was followed by a period of negative growth between the 1760s and 1800s and stagnation from the 1800s to the 1880s, leaving late-nineteenth century Russia further behind the West than at the beginning of the eighteenth century.

Growth Rate in CXC STEM Subject Entries: Implications for Meeting the Development Needs of the Caribbean

After years of emphasizing the need to prepare students with skills acquired though the study of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) for the demands of the job market and to support economic development, there is a need to assess the extent to which subject entries for end of secondary school examinations in the Caribbean reflect change in this direction. Such an assessment was undertaken by examining the extent to which students are taking STEM clusters of subjects in the May/June Caribbean Secondary Education Certificate (CSEC) examinations of the Caribbean Examinations Council (CXC). It was found that the number and percentage of entries for STEM subjects were higher than those for the overall CSEC subject entries. A low rate of positive growth was noted in many clusters of STEM subjects along with periods of negative growth. It was concluded that, at best, the growth rate in STEM subject entries was anaemic. In view of the importance of the STEM subjects in preparing secondary school students both for the world of work and for advanced studies that will provide critical advanced skills required in the workforce of the twenty-first century, more effective policy and policy implementation in education must be pursued in the Region to ensure a sharper focus on STEM education at the secondary level. 

Estimating Green Net National Product for Puerto Rico: An Economic Measure of Sustainability.

This paper presents the data sources and methodology used to estimate Green Net National Product (GNNP), an economic metric of sustainability, for Puerto Rico. Using the change in GNNP as a one-sided test of weak sustainability (i.e., positive growth in GNNP is not enough to show the economy is sustainable), we measure the movement away from sustainability by examining the change in GNNP from 1993 to 2009. In order to calculate GNNP, we require both economic and natural capital data, but limited data for Puerto Rico require a number of simplifying assumptions. Based on the environmental challenges faced by Puerto Rico, we include damages from air emissions and solid waste, the storm protection value of mangroves and the value of extracting crushed stone as components in the depreciation of natural capital. Our estimate of GNNP also includes the value of time, which captures the effects of technological progress. The results show that GNNP had an increasing trend over the 17 years studied with two periods of negative growth (2004-2006 and 2007-2008). Our additional analysis suggests that the negative growth in 2004-2006 was possibly due to a temporary economic downturn. However, the negative growth in 2007-2008 was likely from the decline in the value of time, suggesting the island of Puerto Rico was moving away from sustainability during this time.

Does a Recession have an Impact on Alcohol Consumption?

The hypothesis of this paper is alcohol consumption will decrease when a country experiences a recession. We have used data covering the yearly consumption (in litres per capita) of alcohol from the World Health Organization (2015), combined with yearly & quarterly GDP data from the OECD website (2015) to firstly identify years where there have been more than 2 periods of negative growth (recession), and to compare these data sets to see if any relationship exists.We have used correlation analysis between the financial data and the consumption data, as well as scatter graphs to see if there is a high correlation (0.7) or a trend, for 3 countries that have experienced a recession over the last 15 years (US, Finland & Greece). What we found is that some types of alcohol did appear to show both positive and negative relationships to GDP or recession but this relationship differed between countries. There are other factors that must be considered including cultural relationship to alcohol in different locations, as well as any government or social programs.

On the Predictive Content of Leading Indicators: The Case of US Real Estate Markets

This paper employs a probit model and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator series to detect the turning points in four key US commercial rents series. We find that both the approaches based on the leading indicator have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naive model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. The empirical support for the adequacy of these prediction methodologies, from both in-sample and real time forecasting assessments, makes them a valuable tool to real estate professionals forecasting the US real estate markets. We find that while the Markov switching model nominally appears to be more successful in predicting periods of negative growth, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect turning points several quarters ahead.

Applying Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory to simulate growth and bio-energetics of blue mussels under low seston conditions

A Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model for simulation of growth and bioenergetics of blue mussels ( Mytilus edulis) has been tested in three low seston sites in southern Norway. The observations comprise four datasets from laboratory experiments (physiological and biometrical mussel data) and three datasets from in situ growth experiments (biometrical mussel data). Additional in situ data from commercial farms in southern Norway were used for estimation of biometrical relationships in the mussels. Three DEB parameters (shape coefficient, half saturation coefficient, and somatic maintenance rate coefficient) were estimated from experimental data, and the estimated parameters were complemented with parameter values from literature to establish a basic parameter set. Model simulations based on the basic parameter set and site specific environmental forcing matched fairly well with observations, but the model was not successful in simulating growth at the extreme low seston regimes in the laboratory experiments in which the long period of negative growth caused negative reproductive mass. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the model was moderately sensitive to changes in the parameter and initial conditions. The results show the robust properties of the DEB model as it manages to simulate mussel growth in several independent datasets from a common basic parameter set. However, the results also demonstrate limitations of Chl a as a food proxy for blue mussels and limitations of the DEB model to simulate long term starvation. Future work should aim at establishing better food proxies and improving the model formulations of the processes involved in food ingestion and assimilation. The current DEB model should also be elaborated to allow shrinking in the structural tissue in order to produce more realistic growth simulations during long periods of starvation.

FLEXIBILITY, SECTORAL HYSTERESIS, AND DOWNTURNS

This paper sets up a two-sector growth model with sectoral hysteresis because of intersectoral factor reallocation costs. The main results are: (i) The economy under study exhibits nonergodic growth implying path-dependency (history matters) and permanent consequences of temporary shocks. (ii) Flexible economies are more likely to take advantage of technological improvements. The analysis points to a new mechanism in the flexibility-growth nexus, which complements the findings of Bertola (1994). (iii) Periods of negative growth can be explained as optimal responses of an economy to favorable technology shocks. This result sheds light on the fact that economic development is associated with recurring downturns.

HETEROTHALLIC SEXUALITY AND DENSITY DEPENDENT ENCYSTMENT IN THE CHRYSOPHYCEAN ALGA SYNURA PETERSENII KORSH.1

ABSTRACTSexual reproduction of the common planktonic chrysophyte Synura petersenii is described from observations made on clonal isolates grown in defined culture. Sexual fusion was isogamous and heterothallic, with cells of normal appearance from compatible clones serving as hologametes. No special culture conditions were required to induce sexual behavior; actively growing cell populations appeared to be continually receptive to mating when mixed with a sufficient number of cells from a compatible clone. A single, bipolar mating group was documented containing five of the seven clones tested. Zygotic statospores were found to be binucleate and to contain 4 chloroplasts at maturity. Production rates of zygospores were low for even the most highly compatible clones, with batch culture yields ranging from 1‐20% of final cell density under the culture conditions utilized. Six of the clones tested were also capable of very low frequency (0.001‐0.01%) homothallic statospore production but the reproductive significance of these cysts remains enigmatic. The dynamics of sexual encystment suggest that the process proceeds during periods of active population growth and is density dependent. Based on the characteristics of cyst induction and encystment dynamics, it is concluded that chrysophycean flagellates may have a perennation strategy quite different from that of the majority of planktonic diatoms, dinoflagellates, and green algae for which resting cyst production requires an exogenous trigger usually associated with physiological stress and periods of negative growth.