Periods Of Low Growth Research Articles

The effect of labor mobility on corporate investment and performance over the business cycle

We show that time-series variation in investment opportunities and labor demand create heterogeneity in the effects of labor mobility on corporate investment over the business cycle. To isolate variation in labor mobility, we create an annual state-level index from 1984 through 2017 that captures the degree to which state courts enforce covenants not to compete. We find that firms located in more mobile labor markets increase investment rates more during economic expansions but have similar investment rates during periods of low or negative growth. This increased investment during expansions is greater for firms that rely more on recruiting skilled and experienced workers to grow their businesses, and it translates into higher sales growth rates, profits, and valuations. Overall, our results suggest that the benefits of being able to recruit qualified workers with relevant experience during expansions outweigh the costs associated with losing key workers.

Dynamics and scale variations of blooms of Phaeocystis globosa “giant colony” ecotype and key environmental factors in the Beibu Gulf, China

The Beibu Gulf has experienced blooms of Phaeocystis globosa “giant colony” ecotype (PGGCE), with noticeable variations in bloom scale across years. However, driving environmental factors and their roles remain poorly understood. In this study, we quantified dynamics of PGGCE cells in 2016–2017 and 2018–2019, and analyzed their correlations with environment factors. The results revealed that PGGCE blooms primarily occurred in Guangxi coast and western waters of Leizhou Peninsula during winter months, exhibiting distinct developmental processes. Bloom intensity, duration, and distribution differed significantly between two bloom events. In 2016–2017, peak PGGCE density exceeded 2.0 × 105 cells L−1 nearly double that of 2018–2019. Furthermore, bloom sustained five months during 2016–2017, compared to three months during 2018–2019. Prolonged period of low temperatures and elevated nitrate concentrations favored PGGCE growth and colony formation, resulting in a larger scale bloom during winter 2016 as opposed to winter 2018.

Economic activity and the bank credit channel

We study empirically the effect of growth in real economic activity on the strength of the bank credit channel of monetary policy in the United States using quarterly commercial bank-level panel data between 1986 and 2018, and bank-firm matched administrative data on loan volumes and terms between 2012 and 2018. We find that monetary policy is significantly more effective through the bank credit channel in spurring activity during periods of low economic growth than in cooling the economy when growth is high. Our results also suggest that the channel operates through a broader range of loan categories and banks than previously documented, that it is stronger for business than household lending, and that for some of the major loan categories it only operates in a low economic growth environment.

Quantile Policy Effects: An Application to US Macroprudential Policy

To assess the dynamic distributional impacts of macroeconomic policy, we propose quantile policy effects to quantify disparities between the quantiles of potential outcomes under different policies. We first identify quantile policy effects under the unconfoundedness assumption and propose an inverse probability weighting estimator. We then examine the asymptotic behavior of the proposed estimator in a time series framework and suggest a blockwise bootstrap method for inference. Applying this method, we investigate the effectiveness of US macroprudential actions on bank credit growth from 1948 to 2019. Empirically, we find that the effects of macroprudential policy on credit growth are asymmetric and depend on the quantiles of credit growth. The tightening of macroprudential actions fails to rein in high credit growth, whereas easing policies do not effectively stimulate bank credit growth during low-growth periods. These findings suggest that US macroprudential policies might not sufficiently address the challenges of soaring bank credit or ensure overarching financial stability.

Relationship between economic growth and marine ecological environment based on VAR models

This study aims to investigate the inherent correlation between economic growth and marine conservation in the coastal regions of China, specifically the shifting relationship between high and low economic growth periods and marine pollution. A nonlinear model is employed to determine the dynamic relationship based on historical data, with the inclusion of a nonlinear zone system transfer factor to achieve this dynamic relationship. The study's data was sourced from a statistical database of 11 Chinese coastal provinces, containing details on economic growth rates and emissions of industrial waste. In the study, significant differences in the mean, variance and smoothing probability of the different provinces were observed in the different systems. Notably, Shandong recorded the highest mean μ2 in both systems, 0.7261* and 0.7261**, while the correlation coefficient between the two systems in the high growth area was −0.3543. Significant differences exist in the intrinsic links between economic growth and marine environmental protection within provinces and cities. Therefore, targeted strategies must be developed for specific regions when formulating economic and environmental policies.

Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning

This paper assesses the usefulness of comprehensive payments data for macroeconomic predictions in Canada. Specifically, we evaluate which type of payments data are useful, when they are useful, why they are useful, and whether machine learning (ML) models enhance their predictive value. We find payments data with a factor model can help improve accuracy up to 25% in predicting GDP, retail, and wholesale sales; and nonlinear ML models can further improve the accuracy up to 20%. Furthermore, we find the retail payments data are more useful than the data from the wholesale system; and they add more value during crisis and at the nowcasting horizon due to the timeliness. The contribution of the payments data and ML models is small and linear during low and normal economic growth periods. However, their contribution is large, asymmetrical, and nonlinear during crises such as COVID-19. Moreover, we propose a cross-validation approach to mitigate overfitting and use tools to overcome interpretability in the ML models to improve their effectiveness for policy use.

The role of wages in triggering innovation and productivity: A dynamic exploration for European economies

This paper addresses the issue of sluggish productivity growth in advanced countries and investigates its underlying causes, focusing on the direct impact of real wages. Analyzing data from 14 European countries spanning 1995 to 2018, we employ Local Projections to estimate the Sylos Labini productivity equation. Advancing our understanding of established literature, we dynamically explore the wage-productivity nexus, testing the hypothesis that higher wages enhance productivity independently of aggregate demand. Our findings indicate that wages exert a persistent and direct positive effect on productivity, both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. This effect remains stable over time, even with large changes, and is more pronounced during periods of low or negative wage growth. Moreover, higher wages prove to stimulate innovation more effectively in core countries. These findings suggest that demand-side expansionary policies would be more effective in enhancing labor productivity and long-term growth when combined with policies promoting wage growth.

Temporal changes in labile soil phosphorus pools in grassland receiving P recycled from dairy processing sludge

Replacing chemical fertilisers with recycled products will require new advice for phosphorus (P) use.. Emerging P fertilisers derived from dairy processing sludge (DPS) include products such as struvite and hydrochar. A field study monitored temporal changes in available, exchangeable, and Mehlich3 P pools in a P deficient grassland amended with DPS-derived hydrochar and struvite. Herbage P content and yields were compared with data from plots amended with a mineral P fertiliser. Regardless of fertiliser used, there was no statistical difference in dry matter yield. However, herbage P content varied depending on the fertiliser type. The optimal P content in herbage for cattle feed (0.3–0.4 %) was reached using struvite and mineral fertiliser. Application of struvites increased available, exchangeable, and Mehlich3 P, raising the available P levels to the agronomic optimal value for crop production (>5 mg l-1) within one month. In hydrochar amended plots, the optimal level of P was reached 4 months after fertilisation, at the end of the growing season. During the low growth or dormancy period, soil P levels decreased and remained low regardless of the treatment. In the struvite amended plots, available and exchangeable P pools recovered at the beginning of the second season. This effect was not observed in mineral fertiliser and hydrochar amended plots. A single application of struvite can replace mineral fertilisers supplying crops with P for more than one season. This needs to be reflected in the advice for growers to avoid excessive P application and legacy P deposition.

Forest Resilience in the Himalayas Inferred From Tree Growth After Earthquake Disturbances

AbstractThe Himalayas are one of the most seismically active regions in the world; thus, experiencing frequent catastrophic earthquakes. A growing body of evidence has shown that large earthquakes severely impact on forest ecosystems, particularly in mountain regions. However, little is known about the impact of severe earthquakes on Himalayan forests. Herein, we analyzed tree radial growth patterns following major earthquakes that occurred in 1833, 1905, 1916, 1934, and 1936 in the Himalayas. Based on 46 tree‐ring sites, 77%, 64%, 73%, 72%, and 77% of total analyzed trees showed responses to these seismic events, respectively. On average, 72% of responsive trees undergo growth suppressions following the earthquake events. Superposed epoch analysis showed a strong growth decline 1–5 years after the earthquake. A negative relationship was found between the percentage of responsive trees and the distance of the tree‐ring site from the earthquake's epicenter. The mean time required for 75% of trees to recover reached 5, 5, 5, 13, and 28 years following the earthquake of 1833, 1905, 1916, 1934, and 1936, respectively. The recovery time after a low growth period showed a negative relationship with the distance to earthquake's epicenter. However, the growth resistance improved with increasing distance from the epicenter. Thus, forests located close to earthquakes' epicenters can serve as reliable archive for the reconstruction of earthquakes' impacts. As the Himalayas are prone to earthquakes, adaptive management strategies are required to minimize the impacts of earthquakes on the mountain forest ecosystem.

An outlook analysis on China's natural gas consumption forecast by 2035: Applying a seasonal forecasting method

The proposed targets to achieve peak carbon before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060 would require China to accelerate the development of natural gas infrastructure. The forecasted future of natural gas consumption in China will not only help learn about the future usage of natural gas but also guide government departments to conduct more scientific planning and management of natural gas production and pipeline channels. Therefore, this paper fully considers the characteristics of natural gas consumption affected by seasonal factors and uses the 2018–2021 quarterly natural gas consumption time-series data to analyze whether natural gas consumption contains trends and seasonality. It is noticeable that seasons impact China's natural gas consumption, so the moving average method is applied to calculate the seasonal index. Based on this, China's natural gas consumption from 2022 to 2035 is forecasted. As results show, China's gas consumption will continue to grow over the next 14 years but at a slower rate. By 2035, it will double from the 2021 level, reaching 765.4 billion cubic meters, but the growth rate will drop to below 4%, entering a period of low growth. Finally, the paper illustrates current situation of natural gas development combined with rationalized suggestions for future natural gas production and energy security in China.

Trends in health and health inequality during the Japanese economic stagnation: Implications for a healthy planet

IntroductionHuman health and wellbeing may depend on economic growth, the implication being that policymakers need to choose between population health and the health of ecosystems. Over two decades of low economic growth, Japan's life expectancy grew. Here we assess the temporal changes of subjective health and health inequality during the long-term low economic growth period. MethodsEight triennial cross-sectional nationally representative surveys in Japan over the period of economic stagnation from 1992 to 2013 were used (n = 625,262). Health is defined positively as wellbeing, and negatively as poor health, based on self-rated health. We used Slope and Relative Indices of Inequality to model inequalities in self-rated health based on household income. Temporal changes in health and health inequalities over time were examined separately for children/adolescents, working-age adults, young-old and old-old. ResultsAt the end of the period of economic stagnation (2013), compared to the beginning (1992), the overall prevalence of wellbeing declined slightly in all age groups. However, poor health was stable or declined in the young-old and old-old, respectively, and increased only in working-age adults (Prevalence ratio: 1.14, 95% CI 1.08, 1.20, <0.001). Over time, inequality in wellbeing and poor self-rated health were observed in adults but less consistently for children, but the inequalities did not widen in any age group between the start and end of the stagnation period. ConclusionsAlthough this study was a case study of one country, Japan, and inference to other countries cannot be made with certainty, the findings provide evidence that low economic growth over two decades did not inevitably translate to unfavourable population health. Japanese health inequalities according to income were stable during the study period. Therefore, this study highlighted the possibility that for high-income countries, low economic growth may be compatible with good population health.

Solving Pakistan’s Poverty Puzzle: Whom Should We Believe? What Should We Do? (The Omer Asghar Khan Memorial Lecture)

Understanding Pakistan’s economic performance has never been easy. Its capacity to generate impressive rates of economic growth in the 1960s and 1980s with low levels of savings, investment and very poor human development indicators confounded its critics. Indeed during the overall period 1960-1990 Pakistan’s growth performance would place it in the top ten countries in the world. This made an eminent economist Professor Richard Eckaus remark, “Pakistan is a puzzle, a miracle of levitation. With one of the lowest domestic savings rate in Asia, its economy has performed quite creditably. Since we do not believe in miracles, we have to wonder whether the capital inflows that have sustained this growth will last”.1 Unfortunately they did not. Pakistan’s growth rate in the 1990s came tumbling down, the result of a number of factors of which a decline in capital inflows also played a significant part. If Pakistan’s growth performance has been in part difficult to justify then understanding or explaining changes and wide fluctuations in its poverty levels has posed even a more challenging task. Pakistan has witnessed over the last three decades periods of high economic growth, as in the 1960s, accompanied with increasing poverty levels, periods of low economic growth, as in the 1970s, accompanied by reductions in poverty levels, periods of high economic growth leading to a decline in poverty as in the 1980s and periods of low economic growth as in the 1990s accompanied by as we shall see by increasing poverty levels.

Electricity Demand in Pakistan: A Nonlinear Estimation

Pakistan has plunged into darkness because of severe electricity shortage over the last few years. The electricity shortfall has reached 4,250 MW with demand standing at 16,400 MW and generation at 12,150 MW in June 2013 (PEPCO). The load shedding and power blackouts act as a binding constraint to the economic growth through their impact on employment, trade and poverty [Kessides (2013)]. The existing statistics reveal that Pakistan has witnessed low GDP growth rate during the periods of low or negative electricity growth and during the periods where electricity growth picked up there is an increase in GDP growth rate [Pakistan (2013)]. The power crisis has destroyed the industrial sector of Pakistan. Around 40 percent factories and industry units have now been closed and around 7.5 percent of labour force is out of jobs only because of this dilemma.1

Institutional Investors and Earnings Management in the Korean Stock Market

ABSTRACT This study investigates whether the effectiveness of institutional monitoring varies depending on the economic conditions of emerging capital markets. By analysing the Korean context, we find that the proportion of institutional trading negatively correlates with income smoothing. This finding indicates that, given the Korean market’s structural characteristics (high ownership concentration, large systematic risk, and a high proportion of individual investors), institutional investors, on average, have a strong preference for short-term investments, which may lead to an increase in managers’ opportunistic earnings reporting to meet institutional investors’ earnings expectations. We select our sample period, with the 2008 financial crisis at its centre, and compare the relationship between the proportion of institutional trading and income smoothing across periods before and after the crisis. Notably, our findings show that, in Korea, the diminished effectiveness of institutional monitoring is more pronounced in the post-financial crisis period, characterised by sluggish market growth. Therefore, within emerging capital markets in a period of low market growth, institutional investors’ long-term investment preferences and monitoring may be subdued because the costs of institutional monitoring may outweigh its benefits. This study provides an improved understanding of the variations in institutional monitoring in emerging capital markets brought on by the market’s structural properties and conditions.

Knockout of Dicer-2 in the Sf9 cell line enhances the replication of Spodoptera frugiperda rhabdovirus and conditionally increases baculovirus replication.

The Sf9 cell line, originally isolated from the ovarian tissue of Spodoptera frugiperda larvae, is widely used in academia and industry for the baculovirus-mediated production of recombinant proteins and virus-like particles. RNA interference (RNAi) is a conserved antiviral pathway present in eukaryotic organisms and is the primary antiviral defence mechanism in insects. Recent evidence has implicated RNAi as an antiviral response to baculovirus infection in Sf9 cells. To test this hypothesis, CRISPR/Cas9 technology was used to disable the RNAi pathway in Sf9 cells by knocking out Dicer-2, the protein responsible for cleaving viral double-stranded RNA precursors into short interfering RNAs. Infection of Dicer-2 knockout Sf9 cells with either the wild-type baculovirus Autographa californica nucleopolyhedrovirus (AcMNPV), recombinant AcMNPV (rAcMNPV) expressing β-galactosidase (β-gal), or rAcMNPV expressing a wasp venom protein (Vn50) at a multiplicity of infection (m.o.i.) of 1 resulted in a modest increase in virus replication compared to control Sf9 cells under adherent culture conditions. In contrast, Dicer-2 knockout Sf9 monolayer or suspension cultures infected by the rAcMNPV expressing β-gal at higher m.o.i.s (3.5 and 20) did not exhibit increases in either viral DNA replication or β-gal production. Intriguingly, during long-term passaging in suspension, Dicer-2 knockout Sf9 cultures underwent transient crashes in cell proliferation and viability. It was discovered that these periods of low growth and viability coincided with a dramatic increase in the RNA levels of S. frugiperda rhabdovirus, a recently identified adventitious virus that persistently infects the Sf9 cell line, suggesting a role for Dicer-2 in managing chronic viral infections in this industrially relevant insect cell line.

STUDY ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND EMOTION REGULATION IN CHONGQING BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY

BackgroundChina's rapid urbanization process has brought great pressure to the ecological environment and brought many environmental and resource problems to urban residents. Therefore, a clear and profound understanding of the relationship between urbanization, environmental well-being and residents' emotional regulation is of great significance to urban sustainable development and provides a scientific basis for urban green development.MethodBased on the theories of environmental psychology and environmental behavior, the urbanization index is constructed by entropy method, and the urbanization level is quantitatively evaluated from two aspects of society and economy. In addition, this paper creatively uses the coupling coordinated development model, takes the ecosystem service value as the measurement index of environmental well-being, and discusses the coordinated development relationship between urbanization and environmental well-being of urban residents in Chongqing from 1996 to 2015. Therefore, a good ecological environment is a necessary condition to improve the quality of life of residents. The research results of this paper provide a very useful reference for formulating a healthy and sustainable regional development strategy and building a good interactive relationship between environment and emotion regulation. The correlation coefficient between the r-score and the r-score was between 73.0 and 0.0; The R value between the score of each item of expression inhibition and the total score of expression inhibition is between 0.73-0.81, and the corrected r value is between 0.50-0.64. Based on the total scores of cognitive reappraisal and expression inhibition, 27% of the high and low end were used as the division criteria of high and low groups. The independent sample test of high and low groups was carried out. The results showed that the discrimination between cognitive reappraisal and expression inhibition was very high. Factor analysis based on all data shows that the commonality of 10 items of ERQ is between 0.39 and 0.67.ResultsFrom 1996 to 2015, the overall urbanization comprehensive index showed an upward trend, with an average annual growth of 1.2%; In addition, the urbanization development of the whole region has experienced three stages: low growth period, recession period and high growth period, with an average growth rate of 46%. From 1996 to 2015, Chongqing's environmental well-being showed a fluctuating upward trend, from 46.96 million in 1996 to 48.74 million in 2015, with an average annual growth rate of 0.19%. Environmental well-being showed an upward trend from 2001 to 2009, but showed a double U-shaped fluctuation from 2010 to 2015. From 1996 to 2015, the time evolution of the coupling coordinated scheduling of urbanization level and environmental well-being in Chongqing is a U-shaped curve, which can be further divided into two periods. The overall coupling coordination degree is less than 0.219, and fluctuates greatly from 1996 to 2000; It can be inferred that the type of coupling coordination is seriously unbalanced development. During the period of rapid growth from 2000 to 2015, the degree of coupling and coordination increased rapidly; In 2013, it broke through 0.5 for the first time, entered the basic coordination and coupling state, and then entered the operation and development stage.ConclusionClarifying the current situation and dynamic evolution law of the coupling and coordination relationship between urbanization and urban residents' environmental well-being in Chongqing, formulating a scientific regional development strategy and improving the ecological environment is of great practical significance for the sustainable development of regional urban ecosystem and environmental quality and promoting the coordinated development of human and environment.

The triple helix and the quality of the startup ecosystem: a global view

PurposeThe ongoing business dynamics show two aspects for generating innovation: first, high-impact innovations are developed jointly by several actors, such as universities, enterprises, and governments. Second, startups are better suited to develop innovation during crises or periods of low growth as experienced at the moment. Based on these aspects and drawing on the constructs of the triple helix, this study analyzes the influence between the characteristics of the actors on the quality of the startup ecosystem from a global view.Design/methodology/approachThe study examines the cross-section data of 35 countries between 2017 and 2018 and applies the partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) for assessing the relationships between the triple helix on the quality of the startup ecosystem on a country-level.FindingsThe findings suggest that each actor of the triple helix individually does not positively affect the quality of the startup ecosystem. Yet, when analyzing the actors jointly by creating a second-order latent variable (i.e. triple helix), the study found out that in this way, the triple helix construct has a positive effect on the quality of the startup ecosystem.Originality/valueAlthough a large body of prior literature indicates the importance of generating interrelationships among the different entities involved in ecosystems, few studies provide empirical evidence from a global perspective of the need for these entities to act in an overlapping manner. The present study supports previous research and reinforces the importance of the triple helix for a more innovative environment.

DETERMINANTS OF ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITY IN ASIA AND OCEANIA

Economic uncertainty created by an unstable environment and various financial crises has forced decision-makers to look into factors affecting entrepreneurial activities in the world. As entrepreneurship is perceived as a core component for economic development and it has a vital role in national economies due to its ability to create new jobs and transformation. This study explores the determinants of entrepreneurial activity in the Asia and Oceania region from 2001 to 2018. The results of this study indicate that entrepreneurial intention, perceived capabilities, the growth rate of GDP, and the tax rate positively, while unemployment negatively affects the entrepreneurial activity in the region. The study did not draw any unusual conclusions with regards to factors affecting entrepreneurship activities in Asia and Oceania region after the Global Financial Crisis (2008). The study finds differentiation in factors affecting entrepreneurship during high and low GDP growth periods. The results of this study fail to find the moderated role of religion on entrepreneurial activity in the Asia and Oceania region. Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Entrepreneurial activity; Economic development; Asia and Oceania Region

Renewable energy and economic growth: A Markov-switching approach

This paper examines the dynamic causal relationship between renewable energy prices and economic growth in the cases of Norway, New Zealand, and two Canadian provinces. A Markov-switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR) model is used with model parameters being governed by a hidden Markov chain, allowing the causal relationship to vary amongst different states of the economy. A unidirectional causal link, running from economic growth to renewable energy is found in the case of New Zealand, Alberta, and Ontario. The causality emerges in the cases of New Zealand and Ontario, during periods of high economic growth, whilst it materializes in the cases of Alberta during periods of low economic growth. Our empirical results document the existence of a time-dependent causal relationship between renewable-energy prices and economic growth.

The Role and Problems of Aftercare by Hogojutakusha (Shokuoya, Vocational Parent): The Change of Hogojutakusha Systems and Practices from Postwar to the Period of High and Low Economic Growth

The Role and Problems of Aftercare by <i>Hogojutakusha</i> (<i>Shokuoya</i>, Vocational Parent): The Change of <i>Hogojutakusha</i> Systems and Practices from Postwar to the Period of High and Low Economic Growth