Period Of Hyperinflation Research Articles

Price Fluctuations and Social Media: A Study of Teenagers' Adaptive Consumer Choices

While experiencing hyperinflation, teenager needs to adjust and reevaluate their choices especially when they witness large price fluctuations and unexpected changes in their financial situation. Furthermore, they tends to focus on what’s happening on their social media. The main aim of this research is to examine how society behaved during the hyperinflation period in Türkiye using Bourdieu's theoretical framework. According to our research conducted through in-depth interviews and netnography, teenagers use three coping mechanisms to overcome their levels of cultural and economic capital. They often use coping mechanisms to create their own culture that helps them maintain their identity. This can help better understand behavior & habits of teenager buyers, especially in high inflation environments.

Inventory Decisions Under Stochastic Demand Scenario with High Inflation Rate – Machine Learning Approach

This study examined the effects of hyperinflation on inventory decisions using a real-world dataset obtained from a leading retail company in Sri Lanka during the hyperinflation period of 2022 and developed a Machine Learning model to forecast optimal order quantities with the intention of lowering inventory holding costs. Six distinct ML techniques were selected to identify the best ML model. Root Mean Squared Error and R Squared values were used to rigorously evaluate the performance of the six ML techniques. The results suggest Random Forest as the most appropriate ML model to forecast optimal order quantities during a high inflation situation.

Purchasing Power Parity Between Vietnam and United States

This study uses the annual data of consumer price index, exchange rate and inflation rates spanned from 1986 to 2014 in order to observe whether the PPP hypothesis holds between Vietnam and United States. First, the findings come out based on the graph aproach which is used in order to examine both short-run and long-run PPP. Second, the Engle-Granger approach is applied in order to test for the long – run PPP again. In the short-run, the result from the graph approach indicates that PPP holds during hyperinflation years. After hyperinflation period, the exchange rate and relative price tend to be close together in several years. This finding in the short-run seems to reveal a good guide in the long-run PPP. Both graph and the Engle-Granger approach show the same result in the long –run. Upon the stationary testing, the finding of the Engle-Granger approach demonstrates that residuals from the estimation are stationary, therefore, there is an existence of a long-run relationship between nominal and real exchange rate. In other way, PPP seems to hold between Vietnam and United States. The result leads to the implication that multinational companies should set the same prices for products in Vietnam and United States market based on PPP. Otherwise, investors can gain profit through arbitrage strategies.

Relevance of statement of cash flow in the measurement of corporate financial performance

The objective of this paper is to examine the relevance of statement of cash flow in the measurement of corporate financial performance.The methodology is secondary source through library based research and the review of relevant and extant literature, after which conclusion and recommendations were preferred.It is evident based on the review of literature that the statement of cash flows is yet to attain adequate relevance in the financial reporting environment due to some inherent problems such as lack of financial accounting literacy on the part of some non-accountant investors, the over-emphasis on the use of profit as a standard measure of performance by regulatory authorities, and limited attention given to the statement in the course of auditing financial statements. It is therefore recommended that the Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria (FRCN) and professional bodies should put stiffer penalties in place to reduce problem of material misstatement, so as to ensure that the cash flow figures as reported present the true and fair view. The basis of preparation of statement of cash flows should make relevant adjustment for inflation through the use of either current purchasing power approach or current cost accounting particularly for industrial organisations during the period of hyperinflation in an economy in order to increase its relevance.Â

Preferences and crop choice during Zimbabwe’s macroeconomic crisis

Smallholder farmers face considerable risk and uncertainty, particularly when markets are incomplete or missing. We consider household crop diversity and crop choice in Zimbabwe, where output markets are largely absent and price signals are inaccurate. In this setting, considering preferences and tastes provides a deeper understanding of how households ensure food security in environments without robust markets. We use data that straddles the period of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe and the collapse of the country’s currency to study household cropping behaviour in a time of extreme stress. This allows us to better understand the relationship between market failure and crop choice in Sub-Saharan Africa

THE IMPACT OF ZIMBABWE'S PRICE HYPERINFLATION ON REPORTED LEVELS OF NATIONAL MANUFACTURING SECTOR ACTIVITY

Zimbabwe experienced price hyperinflation as internationally defined in the period March 2007 to January 2009. This paper addresses the issue of how this hyperinflation interacted with manufactur- ing sector performance. Interviews with a small anonymous sample of ‘survivor’ manufacturers suggest that rational decisions as responses to the internal/external structural events from 2000 induced a number of actions that tended to economize on the use of Zimbabwean dollars as the highly monetized manufacturing sector was especially exposed to monetary risks, but was also well connected with the international economy and using other currencies. Though damage to the manufacturing sector continued during the hyperinflation period it did not accelerate as might have been expected. Therefore, analytically, rational decision-making by private sector manufacturers prior to the hyperinflation may have helped protect some of them from its effects but also played a role as acause of the hyperinflation.

The Monetary and Fiscal History of Argentina: 1960-2017

In this chapter, we review the monetary and fiscal history of Argentina for the period 1960–2017, a time during which then country suffered several balance of payments crises, three periods of hyperinflation, two defaults on government debt, and three banking crises. All told, between 1969 and 1991, after several monetary reforms, thirteen zeros had been removed from its currency. We argue that all these events are the symptom of a recurrent problem: Argentina’s unsuccessful attempts to tame the fiscal deficit. An implication of our analysis is that the future economic evolution of Argentina depends greatly on its ability to develop institutions that guarantee that the government does not spend more than its genuine tax revenues over reasonable periods of time.

Problemy gospodarcze Polski w okresie wojny z bolszewikami – zarys problematyki

Objective: The article identifies the main economic problems Poland faced as a result of its military involvement in the 1919–1921 Polish-Soviet War.Research Design & Methods: Source material including legal regulations, statistical data and pre- and post-war literature were analysed.Findings: Financing military operations replete with supplies took a tremendous effort, and the consequent hardship was shouldered by all of Poland’s citizens. The situation weighed particularly heavily on rural populations, which were compelled to provide recruits and food for the army and civilians alike. The war ultimately ushered in a period of hyperinflation.Implications / Recommendations: War places a huge burden on state finances. It contributes to a greater state interventionism and imposes various obligations on the citizens.Contribution: The analysis of main problems of Polish economy during the Polish-Soviet War may be used for comparative purposes when studying similar issues in other countries.

‘This word volunteer is killing us’: Making sense of volunteering in social welfare provision for orphans and vulnerable children in rural Zimbabwe

This qualitative study explored how volunteers delivering social welfare to orphans and vulnerable children through a community initiative supported by donors made sense of volunteering during a period of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe. Findings confirm that volunteering in Africa is influenced by a normative value system embedded in Ubuntu. Volunteering emerged as contradictory given the contextual prevalence of the social obligation discourse rather than individual choice as embedded in the European sense of voluntarism. Volunteering masked the cost of participation, thereby potentially making poverty worse for the poor in a context without a formal welfare system.

“Making a plan”: responses amongst the wealthy to declining socioeconomic conditions in suburban Harare

Although the term “crisis” is often used to describe politico-economic conditions in post-2000 Zimbabwe, the period of hyperinflation in Zimbabwe was also accompanied by creative responses to declining socioeconomic conditions. In this paper, I consider the ways in which wealthy suburban Zimbabweans resident in Harare during this period dealt with the withdrawal of the state from some aspects of daily life: most notably, experienced through a decline in municipal services such as the provision of water and electricity. I argue that whilst poor urbanites experienced socioeconomic conditions as a decline in modernity even while they engaged in creative responses to those conditions, for wealthier (Black and White) urbanites the withdrawal of local government services led to a revival of ideas of innovation (“making a plan”) that were similar to a pre-Independence discourse of self-reliance in the face of economic sanctions imposed in the 1970s. Ideas of self-sufficiency and innovation in the present day were invoked by both Black and White respondents, and can be read as partly rhetorical, given the realities of complex engagements and negotiations that occurred in Harare between residents and the municipality and state services. The innovation required to “make a plan” was always complexly social: although people could no longer rely on local government for services, they were forced by the erratic nature of service delivery to rely upon one another, and to engage with municipal institutions and local government structures in ways that had previously been unnecessary. Attempts to maintain a “proper” life in Harare involved creating forms of community amongst the wealthy, and connections between the wealthy and the state, that had not necessarily existed before the so-called crisis.

Allison J. Truitt. Dreaming of Money in Ho Chi Minh City. Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2013, xii+193p.

Dreaming of Money in Ho Chi Minh CityThe scholarly study of banknotes (notaphily) is not a new phenomenon. But it did not take systematic modern form until the 1920s. (Ironically, it emerged under the Weimar Republic just as Germany was entering a three-year period of hyperinflation.) Since then, the number of numismatic associations has grown considerably, as have specialized publications. Banknote News is one relevant example. Banknote News issues breaking stories about international paper and polymer money. Collectors are the primary audience, and the website contains hundreds of links to vendors for people who wish to purchase the bank notes they covet. One of the links directs collectors to the 2014 edition of The Banknote Book. It includes 205 stand-alone chapters, each of which can be purchased separately as a country-specific catalog. (The Vietnam chapter provides detailed information on notes the State Bank of Vietnam issued, but only from 1964 to present, color copies of them, as well as their current market valuations.) The four-volume set currently runs 2,554 pages and details more than 21,000 types and varieties of currency, some dating back centuries.The global community of currency collectors and the desires that shape their relationships to different forms of money provides a useful entry point into Allison Truitt's fascinating book, Dreaming of Money in Ho Chi Minh City. Truitt is similarly interested in state-issued currencies, especially with regard to how people conceptualize the interplay of their material and symbolic properties. But her interests do not end there. The ethnographic focus of the book is instead upon interpersonal relations, as mediated by different currencies (primarily coins, paper, and gold), which she dubs monetary pluralism (pp. 149-150).The author's attention to interpersonal relations enables her to raise new questions about the cultural politics of identity in Vietnam's economic capital, Ho Chi Minh City, which she rightfully acknowledges is not always representative of the country as a whole. Nevertheless, the central questions around which the book is organized are not specific to it. The questions are applicable everywhere, and I reproduce them here for this reason. First, she asks, Can people exert control over state-sponsored infrastructures such as territorial currencies? Second, How do we come to have faith in the currency we handle? Third, How do people personalize money so that it becomes a vehicle for expressing qualities other than exchange value? And, finally, What happens when those efforts fail? (pp. 3-4).The author describes how ordinary people-butchers, unlicensed money changers, small shop owners, street traders, lottery ticket purchasers, and so on-responded to the above questions over the course of six chapters. The first chapter provides a historical account of the problem competing currencies (Indochinese piasters, revolutionary-era financial notes, U.S. dollars, gold bars, and demonetized national currency) posed for people living in the south during the twentieth century. Chapter two features the rise of consumer culture, a process that began during the mid- 1990s when a series of reforms known as Renovation(Doi moi) accelerated the shiftfrom a centralized command-and-control economy to a decentralized marked-based one. Truitt's insights into what this process looked like at the household-level lays the foundation for chapter three. It features the methods prosperous households used to hide their growing wealth and to maintain its value in the face of mounting inflation, a consequence of the country's gradual reintegration into global financial markets. Chapter four reorients the reader's attention to the role fictive currencies, such as spirit money (tien ma), play in Vietnamese ritual life. Particular emphasis is placed upon how subjective debts rather than contractual debts are (re-)produced through social interactions, and the complicated ways they link people over time and across territorial spaces. …

Inter-temporal Changes in Well-being During Conditions of Hyperinflation: Evidence from Zimbabwe

In the last decade, the economy of Zimbabwe underwent unprecedented stress and change. Starting in 2000, land reform began with farm invasions. This process eventually evolved into a government-guided fast-track reform. During this process, the international community imposed sanctions, and these factors, together with a severe drought, let to a reduction in availability of the main food staple. Inflationary pressures built and were exacerbated by foreign exchange shortages. The economy slowed due to debt overhang and dwindling investment caused in part by increased uncertainty. Several factors contributed to deterioration of the value of the Zimbabwean Dollar and by mid-2007, hyperinflation became rampant. The economic crisis began to abate in 2008 and political agreements signed in 2008 and implemented in 2009 led to further stabilisation. As Zimbabwe moves forward, it is important to understand the conditions faced by the poor, and how they have changed during the period of hyperinflation. To do so, this paper uses 2001 and 2007/8 nationally representative household data and an asset index to avoid reliance on money-metric measures during the period of hyperinflation. An asset index is constructed using polychoric principal component analysis for both periods. A profile of well-being in 2001 is obtained using consumption expenditures, which helps calibrate asset index poverty lines. The 2001 data are used to generate small-area poverty estimates for both survey years and to validate the robustness of the findings from the asset index. The asset index holds its own when compared with standard consumption expenditure methods and small-area estimation-based predictions, providing confidence in our findings. Urban asset poverty declined during 2001/7, but extreme poverty increased. Rural asset poverty and extreme poverty worsened between 2001 and 2007. For the best-educated households, poverty increased significantly. Conditions of communal and resettlement workers deteriorated, reflecting worsening economic conditions in rural areas.

International Crises, Characterization of Contagion and Social Well-Being in Developing Countries: A Theoretical Model

This paper has two objectives: to characterize the exposure of developing countries to the international income, prices and monetary shocks and to calculate the social well-being in the period of contagion. Firstly, we develop a theoretical model with a world composed of two countries (developed and developing countries) and measure the level of the exposure of income in developing country to the external shocks trough external trade, international tourism, migrant transfers, external debt, foreign aid, FDI and other private financial flow channels. And, we characterize imported inflation in studying the effect of the international shocks on real exchange rate. Secondly, we search the social well-being. The results suggest that economic disequilibrium in developing country is socially optimal and that the dependence of its income to the domestic industry is necessary to reduce contagion. This conclusion is important for African countries because they import finished products for the households’ consumption. In these conditions, they are exposed to the imported inflation. The domestic monetary and tax policies are not adapted to fight against inflation. Also, they produce and export raw materials essentially toward industrialized economies. Thus, they must develop the domestic industry in order to influence the demand (or prices) of raw materials and to substitute imports by domestic goods in period of hyper-inflation in advanced economies in order to reduce imported inflation.

PARA ENSINAR MACROECONOMIA NA GRADUAÇÃO EM ADMINISTRAÇÃO

<p>Pesam contra o interesse dos cursos de graduação em administração, na disciplina de macroeconomia: o baixo peso das questões no Enade e o longo tempo que transcorre entre a formação do estudante e a demanda profissional pelo entendimento da macroeconomia. No entanto, o entendimento de macroeconomia desenvolve a aptidão do aluno pelo pensamento estratégico e tático, além de formar melhores cidadãos. Neste artigo, mostro como, propiciando uma participação mais ativa dos alunos no aprendizado, consegui neutralizar a resistência. Começou-se por meio de trabalhos de casa com o fim de desenvolver um melhor entendimento factual e emocional do significado do desemprego para as famílias e a sociedade. Vídeos e fotografias da época da Grande Depressão e as contemporâneas na Europa, como o movimento dos Indignados da Espanha e a Geração à Rasca de Portugal e entrevistas com desempregados serviram ao propósito. Demanda e Oferta Agregadas foram apresentadas antes das contas nacionais e estas logo depois do modelo macroeconômico para economias fechadas, seguindo então com o modelo para as economias abertas, os ciclos econômicos, inflação e a análise do Plano Real, inclusive com vídeos sobre o período de hiperinflação. Fechou-se o curso com um role-playing-game no qual os alunos chamaram a uma conferência de imprensa para opinarem sobre a política expansionista do governo durante o primeiro semestre de 2012, com base na posição do grupo de interesse por eles escolhido.<br /><br /></p>

The Impact of Past Hyperinflation on Current Investment Behavior

In this paper we study to what extent extreme macroeconomic instability has a long-lasting effect in household investing behavior. Using data from the Brazilian National Household Survey (PNAD) and an additional survey based on the one used by Hong et al. (2004), we find evidence that individuals who were in their early adulthood during Brazil’s hyperinflation period are less willing to have financial saving than those who experienced this macroeconomic shock in other periods of their lives. Also, individuals that have memories of the hyperinflation event are 32% less likely to participate in the stock market.

Forecasting Inflation in Western Balkans - Does One Shoe Fit All?

Inflation is one of key policy variables in the European Union. Keeping inflation below 2 percent is the main proclaimed goal of the European Central Bank. Monitoring inflation dynamics is even more important for the EU candidate countries, as it forms a crucial part of the so called Maastricht criteria. For Western Balkan countries, which have all experienced a hyperinflation period at the first phase of transition, inflation awareness seems to be even more relevant than in case of old EU member states. Although the recent past evidence has shown that the Western Balkan countries have gone through the period of mild inflation rates, the underlying instabilities of their economies might bring about yet another inflation spin.However, a literature on the determinants of the inflation generation process in the Western Balkan countries is, with a few notable exceptions, scarce. Even less is publicly available on the forecasting practices of the region’s central banks. Since this variable is expected to be one of the most strictly monitored if and when Western Balkan countries realise their EU aspirations, the analysis provided in this paper will try to fill the existing gap in the literature.

Fisher, Macaulay et Allais face au “paradoxe de Gibson”

Résumé D’après la théorie quantitative de la monnaie, une expansion de la masse monétaire devrait avoir pour effets à la fois une baisse des taux d’intérêt et une augmentation du prix des biens et services. La corrélation négative attendue entre ces deux dernières variables étant contredite par la corrélation positive observée initialement par Gibson - et confirmée par les travaux ultérieurs - Keynes évoque le « paradoxe de Gibson ». I. Fisher a proposé une explication de ce « paradoxe » fondée sur la lenteur des ajustements des taux d’intérêt au taux d’inflation. Cependant, F.R.Macaulay a montré que, lorsque l’influence de l’inflation sur les taux d’intérêt remonte loin dans le passé, il existe une relation nécessaire entre le niveau des prix et la moyenne pondérée des taux d’inflation passés calculée par Fisher. Dès lors, on peut se demander si la corrélation positive entre le niveau des prix et le taux d’intérêt est le résultat d’un comportement fishérien des agents, ou au contraire, si les résultats de Fisher ne sont qu’une conséquence triviale de la corrélation constatée entre le niveau des prix et le taux d’intérêt. Toutefois, la critique de Macaulay perd sa pertinence lorsque les ajustements sont rapides (i.e. la mémoire du passé est courte), comme pendant les hyperinflations ou encore la période d’après la seconde guerre mondiale. Par rapport à ce débat, le mérite de la théorie Héréditaire et Relativiste (HR) d’Allais est de tenter une réconciliation, avec l’hypothèse du « taux d’intérêt psychologique » i . Dépendant des variations passées des prix et de la production, ce taux s’égalise au « taux d’oubli » et représente la tendance générale des taux d’intérêt du marché. Lorsque la mémoire est longue (i.e. taux d’oubli faible), le taux i est nécessairement lié au niveau des prix, et rend donc compte de la corrélation positive - pouvant être plus ou moins stable en raison de l’influence de la production - entre le taux d’intérêt du marché et le niveau des prix. Cependant, lorsque la mémoire est courte (i.e. taux d’oubli élevé), la théorie HR implique à la fois la disparition de la corrélation entre le taux d’intérêt et le niveau des prix et l’émergence d’une corrélation positive entre le taux d’intérêt et le taux de variation courant des prix, comme cela est aussi souvent observé. Classification JEL : E31, E43, N01.

Decomposition behavior in aggregated data sets

One way to aggregate data is to combine several sets with the same structure, but no overlap in their ranges of values — for instance, aggregating prices before and after a period of hyperinflation. Looking at nonparametric tests on three ‘items’, we compute the relation of the decomposition of the underlying voting profiles of such aggregated sets to those for the original data. We focus on the Basic components, including examples of ‘pure Basic’ sets, computed using Sage. This yields several interesting results about consistency of nonparametric tests with respect to this kind of aggregation, and suggests types of non-uniformity which are not detected by standard tests.

Viscous cosmological models with a variable cosmological term

Einstein's field equations for a Friedmann-Lamaitre Robertson-Walker universe filled with a dissipative fluid with a variable cosmological term L described by full Israel-Stewart theory are considered. General solutions to the field equations for the flat case have been obtained. The solution corresponds to the dust free model where . It also admits the exponential solution for hubble parameter which represent the period of hyperinflation or superinflation where the energy density and the cosmological term grow enormously. The temperature is regarded as a constant. (Global Journal of Pure and Applied Sciences: 2003 9(4): 553-560)

Essays on Vietnam's Financial Reforms: Foreign Exchange Statistics and Evidence of Long-Run Equilibrium

In this paper, we examine exchange rates in Vietnam’s transitional economy. Evidence of long-run equilibrium are established in most cases through a single co-integrating vector among endogenous variables that determine the real exchange rates. This supports relative PPP in which ECT of the system can be combined linearly into a stationary process, reducing deviation from PPP in the long run. Restricted coefficient vectors s’ = (1, 1, -1) for real exchange rates of currencies in question are not rejected. This empirics of relative PPP adds to found evidences by many researchers, including Flre et al. (1999), Lee (1999), Johnson (1990), Culver and Papell (1999), Cuddington and Liang (2001). Instead of testing for different time series on a common base currency, we use different base currencies (USD, GBP, JPY and EUR). By doing so we want to know the whether theory may posit significant differences against one currency? We have found consensus, given inevitable technical differences, even with smallerdata sample for EUR. Speeds of convergence to PPP and adjustment are faster compared to results from other researches for developed economies, using both observed and bootstrapped HL measures. Perhaps, a better explanation is the adjustment from hyperinflation period, after which the theory indicates that adjusting process actually accelerates. We observe that deviation appears to have been large in early stages of the reform, mostly overvaluation. Over time, its correction took place leading significant deviations to gradually disappear.