Mutual Fund Performance Persistence Research Articles

On the short-term persistence of mutual fund performance in Europe

In this article, we examine the short-term persistence in mutual fund performance in the main European markets between January 1990 and December 2022. The mutual fund industry in Europe has experienced significant growth in recent years as a consequence of the integration of its markets. However, the European mutual fund industry is still an unexplored area of research with only a small number of significant studies compared to the US industry. Using a sample of daily survivorship bias-free data on the five most important European mutual fund countries, which includes 2734 mutual funds across all countries, we find statistically significant persistence in the post-ranking quarter across different performance models for all countries. This evidence is present across all deciles including the top-decile and bottom-decile mutual funds. Further, we also extend our analysis to high inflation periods.

Mutual fund performance persistence: Factor models and portfolio size

We re-examine US mutual fund performance persistence. We investigate persistence (i) using both “academic” factor models and “practitioner” index models, (ii) using decile-size recursive portfolios and also portfolios formed from smaller numbers of funds, (iii) using nonparametric bootstrap p-values as well as conventional t-tests and (iv) using both net-of-fee fund returns (net alphas) and gross alphas. Our key result is that positive net alpha performance persistence can be found using small portfolios of funds together with a holding period of 6 months or less, for both practitioner index models and academic factor models.

Mutual Fund Performance Persistence and Competition: Pakistan’s Open Ended Mutual Fund Performance Analysis

Mutual Funds through its professional managers enable small investors to enjoy benefits of capital market with small amount. This study with special focus on Pakistani Mutual Fund industry, tests the suitability of traditional measures and multifactor, asset pricing models on the Mutual Fund performance. Owing to rareness of the applicability of the multifactor models in comparison to traditional measures, in evaluating Mutual Fund performance in modern day Pakistani research, the study uses CAPM, Fama French, Carhart models in the performance evaluation of Pakistan Mutual Fund. The data of 100 open-end Mutual Funds, for the period 2005 to 2017 was collected from Mutual Fund Association of Pakistan; while the risk free rates data was collected from State Bank of Pakistan and Stock data from Pakistan Stock Exchange for predicting the results, Ratio analysis, CAPM, Fama French-3 Factor and Carhart-4 factor model were used to understand its suitability. The results demonstrated that application of CAPM, affect market factors of majority of the portfolios.Where as in other two models (Fama French, Carhart) the majority of the portfolios are insignificantly affected by the size factor, value factor and Momentum factor. The Gibbon Rose Shanken unveils the suitability of the best model and justify CAPM as the better model among the three competing models in evaluate on theMutual Fund performance in Pakistan. The study has certain implications for the managers of assets management companies as well as useful for the investors in knowing which funds perform better and which kind of funds are ideal for investment.

Do machines beat humans? Evidence from mutual fund performance persistence

We study the performance persistence of quantitative actively managed US equity funds. We show that the persistence of quantitative funds originates from poor performers and that there are reversals at the top of the performance scale, which is no different from the widely accepted evidence in the mutual fund literature. When testing for differences in performance persistence between quantitative and non–quantitative funds, we find no differences for poorly performing funds, but we observe significantly more reversals for quantitative funds at the top of the performance distribution. We also find that the differences in performance persistence are not explained by differences in flow–induced incentives to generate alpha, as there is no heterogeneity in investors preferences when allocating capital to these funds. Overall our results are consistent with machines having less skill than their human counterparts.

Carhart (1997) Mutual Fund Performance Persistence Disappears Out of Sample

Carhart (1997) Mutual Fund Performance Persistence Disappears Out of Sample

Do fund flows moderate persistence? Evidence from a global study

We investigate whether fund flows eliminate future abnormal performance and persistence as in Berk and Green (2004. “Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets.” Journal of Political Economy 112: 1269–1295) using a sample of open-end domestic equity mutual funds from 32 countries. We show that flows have only a small moderating effect on persistence even in the United States, where fund industry conditions most closely resemble the Berk and Green assumptions. In fact, we find that most countries do not have decreasing returns to scale in fund management and, as a result, flows have limited impact on mutual fund performance persistence.

Performance persistence of mutual funds: evidence from Bangladesh

Purpose: Since 1990s, the discussion on whether mutual funds can perform better and persistently as compare to market has become an ongoing issue. Current research investigates the performance persistence of equity mutual funds’, particularly in the financial market of Bangladesh.Theoretical Framework: Different researchers have strived to examine the performance of mutual funds by using numerous performance indicators and risk adjustment techniques.Design/Methodology/Approach: The equity mutual funds data for this study are obtained from DSE (Dhaka Stock Exchange) database. The sample set includes all open-end mutual funds from 2010 to 2015. There is no mutual fund that has ceased trade or merged with other mutual funds during the study period.Originality/Value: Broad literature have been directed on the performance and persistence of mutual funds in the American markets, while some of the studies also centered on Australia, China, Hong Kong and U.K. financial markets. However, in the context of Bangladesh’s financial market, no identical research has been carried on the performance persistence of mutual funds.Findings: The results reveal that the managers of equity mutual funds have selective ability to obtain higher returns in Bangladesh. Moreover, the past performance of mutual funds has an impact on their future performance. The size of mutual funds doesn’t have any impact on their performance. The parametric and non-parametric models demonstrate that as compare to long run, equity mutual funds in Bangladesh could perform persistently in the short-run.

Constructing and Using Double-Adjusted Alphas to Analyze Mutual Fund Performance

We propose a new approach for estimating mutual fund performance that simultaneously controls for both factor exposure and firm characteristics. This double-adjusted alpha is motivated by the recent findings that traditional Fama-French style factor models do not fully adjust returns for the anomalies related to the factors. We formulate a hierarchical Bayesian model which separates the part of the traditional alpha that can be related to firm and asset characteristics from the true alpha. Our Bayesian approach is straightforward, has theoretical advantages over the traditional two-pass estimation and leads to higher precision. Our double-adjusted alphas produce a different ranking of mutual funds than the traditional alphas. We show that as a consequence, the double-adjusted alphas lead to stronger evidence of persistence of mutual fund performance. On the other hand, we find that the link between selectivity and alpha is driven by the effect of characteristics. Finally, we show that fund flows are mostly driven by the true skill part of the return and hardly by the effect of characteristics. We conclude that good measurement of the true outperformance of mutual funds is crucial for understanding skill.

MUTUAL FUND PERFORMANCE IN DEVELOPING AND ADVANCED WORLD NETWORKS

We propose a new determinant of mutual fund performance persistence. We argue that different funds have different abilities to generate persistent performance and that such heterogeneity across funds can be explained by fund manager access to market information. To justify this hypothesis, we construct a network of mutual funds based on the commonality of their stock holdings and use network features to characterize how well a fund acquires and utilizes market information. Based on a sample of U.S. equity funds from 2001 to 2014, we find that a mutual fund with more complete information is more likely to possess momentum in performance.

The Corporate Life Cycle and the Cost of Equity

Abstract A widely used methodology for estimating the beta of companies with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) uses comparable firms based only on industry or sector classifications (Bancel, F., and U. R. Mittoo. 2014. “The Gap between the Theory and Practice of Corporate Valuation: Survey of European Experts.” Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 26, no. 4 (Fall): 106–17. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/jacf.12095, 112; KPMG. 2017. “Cost of Capital Study 2017: Diverging Markets, Converging Business Models.” Accessed September 28, 2018. https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/ch/pdf/cost-of-capital-study-2017-en.pdf, 37). We hypothesize that even within industries, there is a significant relationship between the cost of equity and the life cycle of a firm. We argue that these variables are correlated because different life-cycle stages exhibit different degrees of systematic risk. Therefore, as the firm moves along its life cycle, its unlevered beta decreases. We define the stages of the firm life cycle based on a modification of the theoretical typology of (Miller, D., and P. Friesen. 1984. “A Longitudinal Study of the Corporate Life-Cycle.” Management Sciences 30 (10): 1161–83. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2631384, 1162–3) and then classify a sample of listed companies into these stages using (Dickinson, V. 2011. “Cash Flow Patterns as a Proxy for Firm Life-Cycle.” The Accounting Review 86 (6): 1969–94. doi:https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-10130) cash flow statements methodology. We construct value-weighted portfolios that are formed based on our life-cycle stages classification, adapting the procedure of (Fama, E., and K. R. French. 1993. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics 33 (1): 3–56. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(93)90023-5). Finally, we compare the betas (levered and unlevered) of these portfolios to determine whether there are statistically significant differences. Our results show clear evidence of a relationship between betas and the corporate life cycle and that this relationship is robust to both changes in the period of analysis and omitted variables bias (when controlling with the four-factor model of (Carhart, M. M. 1997. “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance.” The Journal of Finance 52 (1): 57–82. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x). We believe our results show an important shortcoming in a widely used methodology among practitioners for estimating the CAPM.

Efficiency Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

Efficiency Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

Ethical strategy focus and mutual fund management: Performance and persistence

The aim of this study is to analyze whether managers, practitioners and individual investors could obtain higher risk-adjusted returns by allocating their investments to funds that integrate specific levels of socially responsible (SR) criteria in their portfolios. This is achieved by comparing the performance of mutual funds according to their SR characteristics: environmental, governance, social, and sustainability attributes. For a large sample of 3920 equity SR mutual funds around the world, performance is measured using a multifactor model that incorporates relevant benchmarks according to the fund investment objectives, and using Carhart's (1997) methodology to measure mutual fund performance persistence. In general, fund performance is not significant, the average being negative and close to zero. Funds achieving relatively high levels of SR attributes in their portfolios seem to experience overall worse performances. This evidence is, however, mainly driven by the behavior of worst-performing funds. Moreover, investing in the previous best SR funds could lead investors to greater overall returns in most areas and levels of SR attributes considered. This evidence highlights the role of managers in enhancing the returns of a portfolio with a well-defined SR investment policy. Therefore, there is no incompatibility between pursuing higher ethical (and sustainable) values as well as greater financial performances from investments—provided managers have the skills necessary to choose the right SR funds.

Market frictions, investor sophistication, and persistence in mutual fund performance

We extend the model of Berk and Green (2004) to investigate the impact of two frictions, search costs and financial constraints, on mutual fund performance. Our model predicts the survival of underperforming funds and delivers two new predictions: 1) differences in performance across funds are likely to persist; and 2) mutual funds targeted to less sophisticated investors should exhibit higher dispersion in expected performance. Using data on U.S. domestic diversified equity mutual funds we find empirical support for these predictions.

Persistence in Style-Adjusted Mutual Fund Returns

The literature on mutual fund persistence took a hit with the finding that one-year stock momentum and expense ratios account for most of the persistence in mutual fund performance (Carhart, 1992; Carhart, 1997). However, since equity mutual funds are grouped into styles (e.g., large value, small growth, mid-cap growth, etc.) and are often confined to trading stocks within their style, one should measure fund performance relative to style when investigating managerial ability. Using CRSP mutual fund data and a methodology similar to Carhart (1997), we find that differences in style-adjusted fund returns persist for up to six years. Neither one-year momentum nor expense ratios explain our results. Our results are also robust to controlling for size, book-to-market equity, load, and total net assets. Since manager tenure is about four years, our results suggest that managerial ability may not be as dead as it seems.

UK Mutual Fund Performance Persistence with Active Peer Benchmarks

We assess UK mutual fund performance from a perspective of a peer-group, applying a novel approach suggested in Hunter et al. (2014). Our sample comprises of 817 UK long-only active equity mutual funds allocated to nine Morningstar style category peer-groups in the period 1992-2016. Overall, we find that those funds with most significant positive peer-group adjusted alphas continue to perform well one-year-ahead, using both parametric and non-parametric measures of persistence in performance. Further, a small increase in significance of peer-group adjusted alphas significantly improves the probability that a fund will be placed in the top quartile in the following period. Finally, we document that persistence in performance is driven by both winner and loser funds. The results within each peer group by and large conform to these findings.

On the robustness of persistence in mutual fund performance

This paper analyzes persistence in US equity mutual fund performance over the period 1990–2015. We apply commonly used measures of persistence, which we test using a set of simulated passive funds. In the first stage we apply contingency tables and transition matrices in accordance with previous literature. Results show how these methodologies are biased towards finding evidence of persistence too easily. In the second stage, we take a recursive portfolio approach, which assesses the performance of investing by following recommendations based on past performance. Results show the importance of both estimating persistence by distinguishing among fund style groups, and considering the cross-sectional significance of recursive portfolios. In general, our results support evidence of persistence in mutual fund performance, especially for the case of the best mutual funds. However, this evidence does not hold for the most recent subperiod, 2008–2015. Empirical evidence of persistence is conditioned by the sample period, a result that could explain the inconclusive results found in the literature.

A Comparison of Short-Term Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance in Europe

The mutual fund industry in Europe has experienced significant growth during recent years as a consequence of the integration of its markets. However, the European mutual fund industry is still an unexplored area of research with only a few significant articles compared to the US industry. In this article, we examine the short-term persistence in mutual fund performance in Europe between 1990 and 2015. Using a sample of daily survivorship bias-free data on the five most important European mutual fund countries, we find statistically significant persistence in the post-ranking quarter across different performance models for all countries. This evidence is present across all deciles including the top-decile and bottom-decile mutual funds.

Industry cost of equity capital: European evidence for multifactor models

We estimate the costs of equity capital for 117 industries from 16 European countries employing the CAPM and 8 multifactor asset pricing models as well as a variety of different econometric techniques. In doing so, we extend previous research on cost of equity estimation in mainly two ways. First, our study involves European instead of US or UK industries, which are investigated in previous research, and we find that cost of equity estimates obtained from the CAPM or multifactor asset pricing models are as imprecise for European industries as for US and UK industries. Second, in addition to the CAPM, the Fama and French [1993. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics 33: 3–56] three-factor model, and the Carhart [1997. “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance.” The Journal of Finance 52 (1): 57–82] four-factor model, which are usually employed, our study includes six multifactor models that have not yet been examined on their ability to provide precise estimates of the costs of equity: the five-factor model of Fama and French [1993. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds.” Journal of Financial Economics 33: 3–56] as well as the multifactor models of Pástor and Stambaugh [2003. “Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns.” Journal of Political Economy 111 (3): 642–685]; Campbell and Vuolteenaho [2004. “Bad Beta, Good Beta.” American Economic Review 94 (5): 1249–1275]; Hahn and Lee [2006. “Yield Spreads as Alternative Risk Factors for Size and Book-To-Market.” Journal of Financial & Quantitative Analysis 41 (2): 245–269]; Petkova [2006. “Do the Fama–French Factors Proxy for Innovations in Predictive Variables?” The Journal of Finance 61 (2): 581–612]; and Koijen, Lustig, and van Nieuwerburgh [2010. “The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns.” Working Paper, University of Chicago, University of California at Los Angeles, New York University]. Our results suggest that these models provide even more imprecise cost of equity estimates. One main reason for these inaccurate estimates is the large temporal variation of the risk loadings on the non-traded factors in these models.

Short-Term Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance: International Evidence

This paper examines the short term persistence in performance of equity mutual funds around the world between 1990 and 2013. Using a large survivorship bias-free sample for 35 countries, we document strong evidence of persistence in daily mutual fund returns over quarterly measurement periods. We rank countries by abnormal return and estimate the performance of each country the following quarter. We find statistically and economically significant performance persistence, although persistence is much more pronounced for the top and bottom countries. The post-ranking abnormal return disappears when performance is examined over longer time periods. Thus, our results confirm that superior performance is a short-lived phenomenon.

Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance: Evidence from the Polish Market

The paper addresses an issue of the performance persistence in a mutual fund market. The study focuses especially on the evidence from Poland. The past performance of mutual funds is widely regarded as a key criterion in investment decision making in Poland nowadays, whereas existing empirical evidence does not confirm its predictive power. The paper consists of three main parts. The first is a review of existing academic evidence of the performance persistence. The second is the analysis of the performance persistence among Polish equity and money market funds in years 1998-2009. Three methods of analysis are employed: quartile analysis, raw-data correlation and rank correlation. The last section of the article consists of conclusions and recommendations. The study confirms existence of the persistence in raw returns and risk-adjusted returns among the Polish money market funds but not among the equity funds. There is also a strong evidence of the volatility persistence in the both group of mutual funds.