Performance Of Screening For Trisomy Research Articles

Application of an individualized nomogram in first-trimester screening for trisomy 21.

ABSTRACTObjectivesTo develop and validate a nomogram based on fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT) and ultrasonographic facial markers for screening for trisomy 21 in the first trimester of pregnancy.MethodsThis was a retrospective case–control study using stored two‐dimensional midsagittal fetal profile images captured at 11 + 0 to 13 + 6 weeks' gestation in singleton pregnancies. We included images from 302 trisomy‐21 pregnancies and 322 euploid pregnancies. Cases were divided into a training set (200 euploid + 200 with trisomy 21) and a validation set (122 euploid + 102 with trisomy 21) at a ratio of approximately 2:1. For each, the maternal age, gestational age, fetal NT and karyotype were noted, and 12 ultrasonographic fetal facial markers were measured. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method and multivariable analysis were used to select automatically the discriminative markers. Logistic regression was used to develop a LASSO model, based on the selected markers, to screen for trisomy 21 in the first trimester of pregnancy. Furthermore, 60 of the 624 images were selected randomly as a retest set to evaluate the model's robustness. The predictive performance of screening for trisomy 21 of a model based on fetal NT and maternal age and of the LASSO model was assessed using the area under the receiver‐operating‐characteristics curve (AUC). A nomogram was developed as an individualized tool to predict patient‐specific probability for trisomy 21, which is a more visual presentation of the LASSO model. The performance of the nomogram was assessed using the C‐index and calibration curve.ResultsInto the LASSO model were incorporated eight markers, including fetal NT, prenasal‐thickness‐to‐nasal‐bone‐length ratio, facial profile line, frontomaxillary facial angle, frontonasal facial angle, mandibulomaxillary facial angle, maxilla‐nasion‐mandible angle and d2 (distance between the anterior edge of the prefrontal skin and the mandibulomaxillary line) (all P < 0.05). The AUCs of the LASSO model for screening for trisomy 21 were 0.983 (95% CI, 0.971–0.994) in the training set and 0.979 (95% CI, 0.966–0.993) in the validation set, and these were higher than the AUCs of all eight individual ultrasonographic markers included in the model. The AUC of the LASSO model in the retest set was 0.997 (95% CI, 0.990–1.000), indicating good robustness of the LASSO model. The AUC of the LASSO model was significantly higher than that of the model based on fetal NT and maternal age in both training and validation sets (P < 0.001 for both). The nomogram of the LASSO model showed good discrimination of trisomy 21, with C‐indices of 0.983 in the training set and 0.981 in the validation set.ConclusionsWe present an individualized nomogram which incorporates fetal NT and a series of ultrasonographic facial profile markers selected by the LASSO method and multivariable analysis. This nomogram can potentially be utilized as a convenient and effective tool in screening for trisomy 21 in the first trimester of pregnancy. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

OC02.01: Performance of first trimester screening for Trisomy 21 in twin pregnancies

OC02.01: Performance of first trimester screening for Trisomy 21 in twin pregnancies

Analysis of cell-free DNA in maternal blood in screening for aneuploidies: updated meta-analysis.

To review clinical validation or implementation studies of maternal blood cell-free (cf) DNA analysis and define the performance of screening for fetal trisomies 21, 18 and 13 and sex chromosome aneuploidies (SCA). Searches of PubMed, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library were performed to identify all peer-reviewed articles on cfDNA testing in screening for aneuploidies between January 2011, when the first such study was published, and 31 December 2016. The inclusion criteria were peer-reviewed study reporting on clinical validation or implementation of maternal cfDNA testing in screening for aneuploidies, in which data on pregnancy outcome were provided for more than 85% of the study population. We excluded case-control studies, proof-of-principle articles and studies in which the laboratory scientists carrying out the tests were aware of fetal karyotype or pregnancy outcome. Pooled detection rates (DRs) and false-positive rates (FPRs) were calculated using bivariate random-effects regression models. In total, 35 relevant studies were identified and these were used for the meta-analysis on the performance of cfDNA testing in screening for aneuploidies. These studies reported cfDNA results in relation to fetal karyotype from invasive testing or clinical outcome. In the combined total of 1963 cases of trisomy 21 and 223 932 non-trisomy 21 singleton pregnancies, the weighted pooled DR and FPR were 99.7% (95% CI, 99.1-99.9%) and 0.04% (95% CI, 0.02-0.07%), respectively. In a total of 563 cases of trisomy 18 and 222 013 non-trisomy 18 singleton pregnancies, the weighted pooled DR and FPR were 97.9% (95% CI, 94.9-99.1%) and 0.04% (95% CI, 0.03-0.07%), respectively. In a total of 119 cases of trisomy 13 and 212 883 non-trisomy 13 singleton pregnancies, the weighted pooled DR and FPR were 99.0% (95% CI, 65.8-100%) and 0.04% (95% CI, 0.02-0.07%), respectively. In a total of 36 cases of monosomy X and 7676 unaffected singleton pregnancies, the weighted pooled DR and FPR were 95.8% (95% CI, 70.3-99.5%) and 0.14% (95% CI, 0.05-0.38%), respectively. In a combined total of 17 cases of SCA other than monosomy X and 5400 unaffected singleton pregnancies, the weighted pooled DR and FPR were 100% (95% CI, 83.6-100%) and 0.004% (95% CI, 0.0-0.08%), respectively. For twin pregnancies, in a total of 24 cases of trisomy 21 and 1111 non-trisomy 21 cases, the DR was 100% (95% CI, 95.2-100%) and FPR was 0.0% (95% CI, 0.0-0.003%), respectively. Screening by analysis of cfDNA in maternal blood in singleton pregnancies could detect > 99% of fetuses with trisomy 21, 98% of trisomy 18 and 99% of trisomy 13 at a combined FPR of 0.13%. The number of reported cases of SCA is too small for accurate assessment of performance of screening. In twin pregnancies, performance of screening for trisomy 21 is encouraging but the number of cases reported is small. Copyright © 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clinical Implementation of Routine Screening for Fetal Trisomies in the UK NHS

Objectives Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis of maternal blood for detection of trisomies 21, 18 and 13 is superior to other methods of screening but is expensive. One strategy to maximize performance at reduced cost is to offer cfDNA testing contingent on the results of the first-trimester combined test that is used currently. The objectives of this study were to report the feasibility of implementing such screening, to examine the factors affecting patient decisions concerning their options for screening and decisions on the management of affected pregnancies and to report the prenatal diagnosis of fetal trisomies and outcome of affected pregnancies following the introduction of contingent screening. Methods We examined routine clinical implementation of contingent screening in 11 692 singleton pregnancies in two National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in the UK. Women with a risk ≥ 1 in 100 (high-risk group) were offered options of invasive testing, cfDNA testing or no further testing, and those with a risk between 1 in 101 and 1 in 2500 (intermediate-risk group) were offered cfDNA testing or no further testing. The trisomic status of the pregnancies was determined by prenatal or postnatal karyotyping or by examination of the neonates. Results In the study population of 11 692 pregnancies, there were 47 cases of trisomy 21 and 28 of trisomies 18 or 13. Screening with the combined test followed by invasive testing for all patients in the high-risk group potentially could have detected 87% of trisomy 21 and 93% of trisomies 18 or 13, at a false-positive rate of 3.4%; the respective values for cfDNA testing in the high- and intermediate-risk groups were 98%, 82% and 0.25%. However, in the high-risk group, 38% of women chose invasive testing and 60% chose cfDNA testing; in the intermediate-risk group 92% opted for cfDNA testing. A prenatal diagnosis was made in 43 (91.5%) pregnancies with trisomy 21 and all pregnancies with trisomies 18 or 13. In many affected pregnancies the parents chose to avoid testing or termination and 32% of pregnancies with trisomy 21 resulted in live births. Conclusions Screening for fetal trisomies by cfDNA analysis of maternal blood, contingent on the results of the combined test, can be implemented easily in routine clinical practice. In the high-risk group from the combined test, most but not all women chose cfDNA testing rather than invasive testing. Performance of screening for trisomy 21 was superior by the cfDNA test than by the combined test. However, prenatal detection of trisomies and pregnancy outcome depend not only on performance of screening tests but also on parental choice. Copyright © 2015 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clinical implementation of routine screening for fetal trisomies in the UK NHS: cell-free DNA test contingent on results from first-trimester combined test.

Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) analysis of maternal blood for detection of trisomies 21, 18 and 13 is superior to other methods of screening but is expensive. One strategy to maximize performance at reduced cost is to offer cfDNA testing contingent on the results of the first-trimester combined test that is used currently. The objectives of this study were to report the feasibility of implementing such screening, to examine the factors affecting patient decisions concerning their options for screening and decisions on the management of affected pregnancies and to report the prenatal diagnosis of fetal trisomies and outcome of affected pregnancies following the introduction of contingent screening. We examined routine clinical implementation of contingent screening in 11,692 singleton pregnancies in two National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in the UK. Women with a risk ≥ 1 in 100 (high-risk group) were offered options of invasive testing, cfDNA testing or no further testing, and those with a risk between 1 in 101 and 1 in 2500 (intermediate-risk group) were offered cfDNA testing or no further testing. The trisomic status of the pregnancies was determined by prenatal or postnatal karyotyping or by examination of the neonates. In the study population of 11,692 pregnancies, there were 47 cases of trisomy 21 and 28 of trisomies 18 or 13. Screening with the combined test followed by invasive testing for all patients in the high-risk group potentially could have detected 87% of trisomy 21 and 93% of trisomies 18 or 13, at a false-positive rate of 3.4%; the respective values for cfDNA testing in the high- and intermediate-risk groups were 98%, 82% and 0.25%. However, in the high-risk group, 38% of women chose invasive testing and 60% chose cfDNA testing; in the intermediate-risk group 92% opted for cfDNA testing. A prenatal diagnosis was made in 43 (91.5%) pregnancies with trisomy 21 and all pregnancies with trisomies 18 or 13. In many affected pregnancies the parents chose to avoid testing or termination and 32% of pregnancies with trisomy 21 resulted in live births. Screening for fetal trisomies by cfDNA analysis of maternal blood, contingent on the results of the combined test, can be implemented easily in routine clinical practice. In the high-risk group from the combined test, most but not all women chose cfDNA testing rather than invasive testing. Performance of screening for trisomy 21 was superior by the cfDNA test than by the combined test. However, prenatal detection of trisomies and pregnancy outcome depend not only on performance of screening tests but also on parental choice.

First-trimester contingent screening for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 by fetal nuchal translucency and ductus venosus flow and maternal blood cell-free DNA testing

Objective To examine performance of screening for major trisomies by a policy of first-line assessment of risk according to maternal age, fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT) and ductus venosus pulsatility index for veins (DV-PIV) followed by cell-free DNA (cfDNA) testing in pregnancies with an intermediate risk. Methods We estimated the distribution of risks based on maternal age, fetal NT and DV-PIV in a dataset of 86 917 unaffected and 491 trisomic pregnancies undergoing prospective screening for trisomies. Performance of screening for trisomies by cfDNA testing was derived from a meta-analysis of clinical validation studies. We estimated performance and cost of screening for trisomies using different combinations of ultrasound screening and cfDNA testing.

Analysis of cell-free DNA in maternal blood in screening for fetal aneuploidies: updated meta-analysis.

To review clinical validation or implementation studies of maternal blood cell-free (cf) DNA analysis and define the performance of screening for fetal trisomies 21, 18 and 13 and sex chromosome aneuploidies. Searches of PubMed, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library were performed to identify all peer-reviewed articles on cfDNA testing in screening for aneuploidies between January 2011, when the first such study was published, and 4 January 2015. In total, 37 relevant studies were identified and these were used for the meta-analysis on the performance of cfDNA testing in screening for aneuploidies. These studies reported cfDNA results in relation to fetal karyotype from invasive testing or clinical outcome. Weighted pooled detection rates (DR) and false-positive rates (FPR) in singleton pregnancies were 99.2% (95% CI, 98.5-99.6%) and 0.09% (95% CI, 0.05-0.14%), respectively, for trisomy 21, 96.3% (95% CI, 94.3-97.9%) and 0.13% (95% CI, 0.07-0.20) for trisomy 18, 91.0% (95% CI, 85.0-95.6%) and 0.13% (95% CI, 0.05-0.26%) for trisomy 13, 90.3% (95% CI, 85.7-94.2%) and 0.23% (95% CI, 0.14-0.34%) for monosomy X and 93.0% (95% CI, 85.8-97.8%) and 0.14% (95% CI, 0.06-0.24%) for sex chromosome aneuploidies other than monosomy X. For twin pregnancies, the DR for trisomy 21 was 93.7% (95% CI, 83.6-99.2%) and the FPR was 0.23% (95% CI, 0.00-0.92%). Screening for trisomy 21 by analysis of cfDNA in maternal blood is superior to that of all other traditional methods of screening, with higher DR and lower FPR. The performance of screening for trisomies 18 and 13 and sex chromosome aneuploidies is considerably worse than that for trisomy 21.

First-trimester contingent screening for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 by fetal nuchal translucency and ductus venosus flow and maternal blood cell-free DNA testing.

To examine performance of screening for major trisomies by a policy of first-line assessment of risk according to maternal age, fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT) and ductus venosus pulsatility index for veins (DV-PIV) followed by cell-free DNA (cfDNA) testing in pregnancies with an intermediate risk. We estimated the distribution of risks based on maternal age, fetal NT and DV-PIV in a dataset of 86 917 unaffected and 491 trisomic pregnancies undergoing prospective screening for trisomies. Performance of screening for trisomies by cfDNA testing was derived from a meta-analysis of clinical validation studies. We estimated performance and cost of screening for trisomies using different combinations of ultrasound screening and cfDNA testing. Screening for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 according to a combination of maternal age, fetal NT and DV-PIV in all pregnancies, followed by invasive testing in the high-risk group (≥ 1:10) and cfDNA testing in the intermediate-risk group (1:11-1:3000) can potentially detect about 96%, 95% and 91% of cases, respectively, with a false-positive rate (FPR) of 0.8%. On the assumption that the costs for ultrasound screening, cfDNA testing and invasive testing are €150, €500 and €1000, respectively, the overall cost of such a policy would be about €250 per patient. The alternative policy, of universal screening by cfDNA testing, can potentially detect about 99%, 97% and 92% of cases of trisomies 21, 18 and 13, but at an overall cost of more than €500 per patient. Incorporation of cfDNA testing into a contingent policy of early screening for the major trisomies, based on the risk derived from first-line screening by a combination of maternal age, fetal NT and DV-PIV, can detect a high proportion of affected cases with a low FPR.

First-Trimester Contingent Screening for Trisomies 21, 18, and 13 by Biomarkers and Maternal Blood Cell-Free DNA Testing

Objective: To examine potential performance of screening for trisomies by cell-free (cf) DNA testing in maternal blood contingent on results of first-line testing by combinations of fetal translucency thickness (NT), fetal heart rate (FHR), ductus venosus pulsatility index (DV PIV), and serum-free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), placental growth factor (PLGF) and α-fetoprotein (AFP). Methods: Performance was estimated for firstly, screening by cfDNA in all pregnancies and secondly, cfDNA testing contingent on results of firstline testing by combinations of ultrasound and biochemical markers. Results: In first-line screening by cfDNA testing, the detection rate for trisomy 21 and trisomies 18 or 13 would be 99 and 96%, respectively, after invasive testing in 1% of the population. In contingent screening, a detection rate of 98% for trisomy 21 and 96% for trisomy 18 or 13, at an invasive testing rate of 0.7%, can be achieved by carrying out cfDNA testing in about 35, 20 and 11% of cases identified by

First-Trimester Screening for Trisomies 21, 18 and 13 by Ultrasound and Biochemical Testing

Objective: To examine the performance of screening for trisomies 21, 18 and 13 at 11-13 weeks' gestation using specific algorithms for these trisomies based on combinations of fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT), fetal heart rate (FHR), ductus venosus pulsatility index for veins (DV PIV), and serum free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG), pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), placental growth factor (PLGF) and α-fetoprotein (AFP). Methods: Model-based estimates of screening performance were produced for the distribution of maternal ages in England and Wales in 2011, and prospectively collected data on fetal NT, FHR, DV PIV, β-hCG, PAPP-A, PLGF and AFP from singleton pregnancies undergoing aneuploidy screening. Results: In screening by NT, FHR, free β-hCG and PAPP-A, using specific algorithms for trisomy 21 and trisomies 18 and 13 at the risk cutoff of 1:100, the estimated detection rate (DR) was 87.0% for trisomy 21 and 91.8% for trisomies 18 and 13, at a false-positive rate (FPR) of 2.2%. Addition of PLGF, AFP and DV PIV increased the DR to 93.3% for trisomy 21 and 95.4% for trisomies 18 and 13 and reduced the FPR to 1.3%. Conclusions: Effective screening for trisomies can be achieved using specific algorithms based on NT, FHR, DV PIV, β-hCG, PAPP-A, PLGF and AFP.

First-Trimester Contingent Screening for Trisomies 21, 18 and 13 by Biomarkers and Maternal Blood Cell-Free DNA Testing

Objective: To examine potential performance of screening for trisomies by cell-free (cf) DNA testing in maternal blood contingent on results of first-line testing by combinations of fetal translucency thickness (NT), fetal heart rate (FHR), ductus venosus pulsatility index (DV PIV), and serum-free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), placental growth factor (PLGF) and α-fetoprotein (AFP). Methods: Performance was estimated for firstly, screening by cfDNA in all pregnancies and secondly, cfDNA testing contingent on results of first-line testing by combinations of ultrasound and biochemical markers. Results: In first-line screening by cfDNA testing, the detection rate for trisomy 21 and trisomies 18 or 13 would be 99 and 96%, respectively, after invasive testing in 1% of the population. In contingent screening, a detection rate of 98% for trisomy 21 and 96% for trisomy 18 or 13, at an invasive testing rate of 0.7%, can be achieved by carrying out cfDNA testing in about 35, 20 and 11% of cases identified by first-line screening with the combined test alone (age, NT, FHR, β-hCG, PAPP-A), the combined test plus PLGF and AFP and the combined test plus PLGF, AFP and DV PIV, respectively. Conclusions: Effective first-trimester screening for trisomies can be achieved by contingent screening incorporating biomarkers and cfDNA testing.

OP23.02: Contingent testing, an alternative for regions lacking first trimester screening for Down's syndrome

late samples. Age standardised detection and false positive rates for different screening protocols were produced. Results: We collected two blood samples in 27 pregnancies affected by trisomy 21 and in 3891 control pregnancies. The early samples were taken between gestational week 8+0 up to week 13+6, and the late samples between week 11+3 up to week 14+6. The median interval between the samples was 17 days (range 1–40 days). We found a significantly better (P 0.05). Conclusions: Using early sampling with measurement of PAPPA and free β-hCG in the combined first trimester screening can optimise screening performance for trisomy 21. Using a double set of the maternal serum markers has the potential to further improve screening performance.

P07.10: Screening performance for trisomy 21 comparing first trimester combined screening and a first trimester contingent screening protocol including ductus venosus and tricuspid flow

P07.10: Screening performance for trisomy 21 comparing first trimester combined screening and a first trimester contingent screening protocol including ductus venosus and tricuspid flow

Temporal Effect of Afro-Caribbean Race on Serum Pregnancy-Associated Plasma Protein-A at 9–13 Weeks’ Gestation in Screening for Aneuploidies

Objective: It was the aim of this study to investigate the pregnancy characteristics that influence the measured concentrations of maternal serum-free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) at 9⁺⁰–13⁺⁶ weeks’ gestation. Methods: In singleton pregnancies attending for routine care, serum-free β-hCG and PAPP-A were measured at 9⁺⁰–13⁺⁶ weeks’ gestation and fetal nuchal translucency was measured at 11⁺⁰–13⁺⁶ weeks. The population included 27,908 chromosomally normal and 104 trisomy 21 pregnancies. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the pregnancy characteristics that have a significant effect on the measured concentrations of free β-hCG and PAPP-A. We also examined the impact of incorporating temporal effects on performance of screening for trisomy 21. Results: Serum-free β-hCG and PAPP-A concentrations were significantly affected by gestational age, maternal weight, racial origin, parity, preexisting diabetes mellitus type 2, smoking and conception by in vitro fertilization. There was a significant gestational age-dependent effect of Afro-Caribbean race on PAPP-A levels (p = 0.0005), with a weekly increase of 4.9% (95% CI 2.1–7.8). Conclusions: Serum-free β-hCG and PAPP-A concentrations at 9⁺⁰–13⁺⁶ weeks’ gestation are affected by several pregnancy characteristics and the effect of Afro-Caribbean race on PAPP-A increases with gestational age.

First-Trimester Screening for Trisomy 21 with Adjustment for Biochemical Results of Previous Pregnancies

Objective: To investigate the effect of associations in serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A between successive pregnancies on the performance of screening for trisomy 21 at 11–13 weeks’ gestation. Methods: In 8,499 women with two consecutive pregnancies, including 49 women with fetal trisomy 21 in the second pregnancy, the correlation in serum free β-hCG multiples of the median (MoM) and PAPP-A MoM between pregnancies was determined, and the effects of correcting for the correlation on the performance of screening was estimated. Results: There were significant associations between pregnancies in free β-hCG MoM (r = 0.4435) and PAPP-A MoM (r = 0.4796). In screening by maternal age and biochemistry at a risk cutoff of 1 in 100, in the second pregnancies the false-positive rate was 35.5% for those with screen-positive results in the first pregnancy, and this was reduced to 17.1% after adjustment for the results of the first pregnancy. Similarly, in women with screen-negative results in the first pregnancy, adjustment for the results improved the detection rate in the second pregnancy from 66.7 to 81.2%. Conclusions: In screening for trisomy 21, adjustment for the biochemical findings in a previous pregnancy has major effects on individual patient-specific risks, increases the detection rate and reduces the false-positive rate.

Maternal thyroid function at 11–13 weeks of gestation in fetal trisomies 21 and 18

To examine the association between maternal serum levels of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) and free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (free β-hCG) in trisomy 21, trisomy 18 and euploid pregnancies at 11-13 weeks and investigate the potential value of TSH in first-trimester screening for aneuploidies. Maternal serum TSH and free β-hCG levels at 11-13 weeks in 25 trisomy 21 and 25 trisomy 18 pregnancies were compared with levels in 3592 unaffected pregnancies. Only women with no history of thyroid disease and negative for antithyroid antibodies were included. Serum TSH in the trisomy 21 pregnancies was lower [0.76 multiples of the normal median (MoM), interquartile range (IQR) 0.46-1.09 MoM] and in trisomy 18 it was higher (1.25 MoM, IQR 0.88-1.98 MoM) than in unaffected pregnancies (1.01 MoM, IQR 0.61-1.51 MoM). There were significant associations between TSH and free β-hCG in the unaffected pregnancies (r = - 0.214, p < 0.0001), but not in those with trisomy 21 (r = - 0.157, p = 0.452) or trisomy 18 (r = - 0.176, p = 0.401). hCG, rather than TSH, may be the primary thyrotropic factor in early pregnancy. Measurement of TSH does not improve the performance of screening for trisomies 21 and 18 provided by nuchal translucency, free β-hCG and pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A.

Screening for trisomies in dichorionic twins by measurement of fetal nuchal translucency thickness according to the mixture model

To examine the distribution of fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness in dichorionic twins and investigate the effect of the correlation between NT measurements in each twin pair on the performance of screening for trisomies. The distribution of fetal NT for crown-rump length (CRL) was examined in 5646 dichorionic twin pregnancies, including 103 with fetal trisomies 21, 18 or 13. The correlation in fetal NT in each euploid twin pregnancy was estimated. The distribution of NT in both euploid and trisomic fetuses was consistent with the mixture model in singleton pregnancies. In the euploid pregnancies, there was a correlation in log NT measurements in each twin pair (r = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.39-0.45) and, after removal of the effect of the operator, this correlation was reduced to 0.34. Allowing for this correlation in risk assessment for trisomies had a major impact on the estimated patient-specific risk but had little effect on the overall performance of screening. In dichorionic twin pregnancies, the mixture model of distributions of NT can be applied as in singletons. In screening for trisomies, the correlation in NT measurements between the fetuses should be taken into account in the estimation of patient-specific risks.

Effect of Deviation of Nuchal Translucency Measurements on the Performance of Screening for Trisomy 21

The single most effective marker for all major chromosomal defects including trisomy 21 (T-21) is the first trimester fetal nuchal translucency thickness (NT). Accurate measurement of the fetal NT to screen for chromosomal abnormalities requires appropriate training, adherence to a standard ultrasound technique, and regular audits of performance. The investigators theorized that an underestimate in NT measurement by individual sonographers would reduce the estimated risk of Down syndrome and thus the overall screen-positive rate; an overestimate would increase both individual risk and the screen-positive rate. This study was designed to examine the effect of deviations in both the median NT and the spread of NT measurements on Down syndrome screening performance, using either the combination of maternal age and fetal NT, or the combination of maternal age, fetal NT, maternal serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A), and free β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG). The effects of deviations in fetal NT medians were assessed by simulating NT measurements and PAPP-A and free β -hCG multiples of the median for 500,000 euploid and 500,000 T-21 pregnancies at 12 weeks' gestation. Detection and false-positive rates were calculated without adjusting NT, and after overestimating and underestimating NT measurements by adding or subtracting values ranging from 0.1 to 1.0 mm to each observed measurement. The effects of variation in the scatter of NT measurements were examined by applying a multiplicative factor ranging from 0.5 to 2 to the SD of the simulated NT data. When the false-positive rate was fixed at 3%, the Down syndrome detection rate was 72% when determined by maternal age and fetal NT, compared to 86% when determined by maternal age, fetal NT, and maternal serum biochemistry. When the false positive rate was held constant, consistent underestimates of fetal NT reduced the detection rate, while overestimates increased the false-positive rate. For example, when NT was underestimated by 0.6 mm and the false positive rate was fixed at 3%, the detection rate using maternal age and NT fell from 71% to 68% and from 86% to 83% for maternal age, NT, PAPP-A, and β -hCG. Widening the scatter of NT measurements had small impact on the detection rate, but resulted in a major increase in the false-positive rate. By illustration, if the NT scatter was increased by 50%, at a detection rate of 71 % the false positive rate was 7.0% for maternal age and NT; at a detection rate of 85%, the false positive rate 4.3% for maternal age, NT, PAPP-A, and β -hCG. These findings illustrate the screening impact of small deviations in NT measurement. The accuracy of the NT measurement techniques of individual sonographers can be assessed by determining the deviation of those measurements from the median and SD of NT measurements obtained by experts. Failure to correct such deviations can alter the detection and false positive rates of the Down syndrome screening test. Continuous auditing and training in the correct method for measuring NT is necessary to ensure effective screening for major chromosomal abnormalities.

OP02.02: Effect of deviation of nuchal translucency measurements on the performance of screening for trisomy 21

To examine the effect of deviations in the median nuchal translucency (NT) thickness and the spread in measurements on the performance of screening for trisomy 21 by maternal age and fetal NT and by maternal age, fetal NT and maternal serum biochemistry. We simulated the NT and MoM values for PAPP-A and free β-hCG for 500,000 euploid and 500,000 trisomy 21 pregnancies at 12 weeks of gestation. Detection rates for trisomy 21 and false positive rates were calculated without adjustments in NT and by adding or subtracting values ranging from 0.1 to 1.0 mm to each observed measurement. In addition, the effects of variation in the scatter of NT measurements were examined by applying a multiplicative factor ranging from 0.5 to 2 to the standard deviation (SD). The detection rate of trisomy 21 for a fixed false positive rate of 3% in screening by maternal age, fetal NT and serum free β -hCG and PAPP-A was 86%. At a risk cut off of 1 : 100, the detection rate was 84% for a false positive rate of 2.7%. An under- or overestimate in the measured NT reduced the detection rate of trisomy 21 for a fixed false positive rate (e.g. overestimation by 0.5 mm: DR 83%; underestimation by 0.5 mm DR 84%). At a fixed screen positive cut-off, an underestimate in fetal NT reduced predominantly the detection rate while an overestimate in NT increased predominantly the false positive rate (e.g. risk cut off 1 : 100: overestimation by 0.5 mm: DR 78% and FPR 1.6%; underestimation of 0.5 mm: DR 91% and FPR 7.0%). A widening in the scatter of measurements had only a small impact on the detection rate but it caused a major increase in the false positive rate (e.g. widening by 50%: DR 85% and FPR 4.3%). High performance of screening necessitates appropriate measurement of fetal NT.

P11.12: Effect of deviation of free β-hCG and PAPP-A on the performance of screening for trisomy 21

P11.12: Effect of deviation of free β-hCG and PAPP-A on the performance of screening for trisomy 21