Performance Of Prediction Models Research Articles

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Vancomycin in Critically Ill Neonates: Assessing the Impact of Pathophysiological Changes.

Dosing vancomycin for critically ill neonates is challenging owing to substantial alterations in pharmacokinetics (PKs) caused by variability in physiology, disease, and clinical interventions. Therefore, an adequate PK model is needed to characterize these pathophysiological changes. The intent of this study was to develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that reflects vancomycin PK and pathophysiological changes in neonates under intensive care. PK-sim software was used for PBPK modeling. An adult model (model 0) was established and verified using PK profiles from previous studies. A neonatal model (model 1) was then extrapolated from model 0 by scaling age-dependent parameters. Another neonatal model (model 2) was developed based not only on scaled age-dependent parameters but also on quantitative information on pathophysiological changes obtained via a comprehensive literature search. The predictive performances of models 1 and 2 were evaluated using a retrospectively collected dataset from neonates under intensive care (chictr.org.cn, ChiCTR1900027919), comprising 65 neonates and 92 vancomycin serum concentrations. Integrating literature-based parameter changes related to hypoalbuminemia, small-for-gestational-age, and co-medication, model 2 offered more optimized precision than model 1, as shown by a decrease in the overall mean absolute percentage error (50.6% for model 1; 37.8% for model 2). In conclusion, incorporating literature-based pathophysiological changes effectively improved PBPK modeling for critically ill neonates. Furthermore, this model allows for dosing optimization before serum concentration measurements can be obtained in clinical practice.

Fat-suppression T2 relaxation time and water fraction predict response to intravenous glucocorticoid therapy for thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy.

To investigate the value of fat-suppression (FS) T2 relaxation time (T2RT) derived from FS T2 mapping and water fraction (WF) derived from T2 IDEAL to predict the treatment response to intravenous glucocorticoids (IVGC) in patients with thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy (TAO) based on texture analysis. In this study, 89 patients clinically diagnosed with active and moderate-to-severe TAO were enroled (responsive group, 48 patients; unresponsive group, 41 patients). The baseline clinical characteristics and texture features were compared between the two groups. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify the independent predictors of treatment response to IVGC. ROC analysis and the DeLong test were used to assess and compare the predictive performance of different models. The responsive group exhibited significantly shorter disease duration and higher 90th percentile of FS T2RT and kurtosis of WF in the extraocular muscle (EOM) and 95th percentile of WF in the orbital fat (OF) than the unresponsive group. Model 2 (disease duration + WF; AUC, 0.816) and model 3 (disease duration + FS T2RT + WF; AUC, 0.823) demonstrated superior predictive efficacy compared to model 1 (disease duration + FS T2RT; AUC, 0.756), while there was no significant difference between models 2 and 3. The orbital tissues of responders exhibited more oedema and heterogeneity. Furthermore, OF is as valuable as EOM for assessing the therapeutic efficacy of IVGC. Finally, WF derived from T2 IDEAL processed by texture analysis can provide valuable information for predicting the treatment response to IVGC in patients with active and moderate-to-severe TAO. The texture features of FS T2RT and WF are different between responders and non-responders, which can be the predictive tool for treatment response to IVGC. Texture analysis can be used for predicting response to IVGC in TAO patients. TAO patients responsive to IVGC show more oedema and heterogeneity in the orbital tissues. WF from T2 IDEAL is a tool to predict the therapeutic response of TAO.

Fair-RGNN: Mitigating Relational Bias on Knowledge Graphs

Knowledge graph data are prevalent in real-world applications, and knowledge graph neural networks (KGNNs) are essential techniques for knowledge graph representation learning. Although KGNN effectively models the structural information from knowledge graphs, these frameworks amplify the underlying data bias that leads to discrimination towards certain groups or individuals in resulting applications. Additionally, as existing debiasing approaches mainly focus on entity-wise bias, eliminating the multi-hop relational bias that pervasively exists in knowledge graphs remains an open question. However, it is very challenging to eliminate relational bias due to the sparsity of the paths that generate the bias and the non-linear proximity structure of knowledge graphs. To tackle the challenges, we propose Fair-KGNN, a KGNN framework that simultaneously alleviates multi-hop bias and preserves the proximity information of entity-to-relation in knowledge graphs. The proposed framework is generalizable to mitigate relational bias for all types of KGNN. Fair-KGNN is applicable to incorporate two stateof- the-art KGNN models, RGCN and CompGCN, to mitigate gender-occupation and nationality-salary bias. The experiments carried out on three benchmark knowledge graph datasets demonstrate that Fair-KGNN can effectively mitigate unfair situations during representation learning while preserving the predictive performance of KGNN models. The source code of the proposed method is available at: https://github.com/ynchuang/Mitigating-Relational-Bias-on-Knowledge-Graphs .

Comparison between Three Radiomics Models and Clinical Nomograms for Prediction of Lymph Node Involvement in PCa Patients Combining Clinical and Radiomic Features

PURPOSE: We aim to compare the performance of three different radiomics models (logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM)) and clinical nomograms (Briganti, MSKCC, Yale, and Roach) for predicting lymph node involvement (LNI) in prostate cancer (PCa) patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The retrospective study includes 95 patients who underwent mp-MRI and radical prostatectomy for PCa with pelvic lymphadenectomy. Imaging data (intensity in T2, DWI, ADC, and PIRADS), clinical data (age and pre-MRI PSA), histological data (Gleason score, TNM staging, histological type, capsule invasion, seminal vesicle invasion, and neurovascular bundle involvement), and clinical nomograms (Yale, Roach, MSKCC, and Briganti) were collected for each patient. Manual segmentation of the index lesions was performed for each patient using an open-source program (3D SLICER). Radiomic features were extracted for each segmentation using the Pyradiomics library for each sequence (T2, DWI, and ADC). The features were then selected and used to train and test three different radiomics models (LR, RF, and SVM) independently using ChatGPT software (v 4o). The coefficient value of each feature was calculated (significant value for coefficient ≥ ±0.5). The predictive performance of the radiomics models and clinical nomograms was assessed using accuracy and area under the curve (AUC) (significant value for p ≤ 0.05). Thus, the diagnostic accuracy between the radiomics and clinical models were compared. RESULTS: This study identified 343 features per patient (330 radiomics features and 13 clinical features). The most significant features were T2_nodulofirstordervariance and T2_nodulofirstorderkurtosis. The highest predictive performance was achieved by the RF model with DWI (accuracy 86%, AUC 0.89) and ADC (accuracy 89%, AUC 0.67). Clinical nomograms demonstrated satisfactory but lower predictive performance compared to the RF model in the DWI sequences. CONCLUSIONS: Among the prediction models developed using integrated data (radiomics and semantics), RF shows slightly higher diagnostic accuracy in terms of AUC compared to clinical nomograms in PCa lymph node involvement prediction.

Blind competition on the numerical simulation of slabs reinforced with conventional flexural reinforcement and fibers subjected to punching loading configuration

AbstractThis paper describes the 3rd Blind Simulation Competition (BSC) organized by the fib WP 2.4.1 which aims to assess the predictive performance of models based on the finite element method (FEM) for analysis and design of fiber reinforced concrete (FRC) structures submitted to loading and support conditions that promote punching failure mode. Fiber reinforcement is used in an attempt to eliminate conventional punching reinforcement and provide technical and economic advantages. The two tested real‐size prototypes represent a column‐slab interior region of an elevated steel‐fiber reinforced concrete (E‐SFRC) slab where anti‐progressive collapse reinforcement is disposed in the alignment of columns/piles. Despite a punching failure surface being formed in both experimentally tested prototypes at the rupture stage, fiber reinforcement was able to mobilize the yield capacity of the conventional flexural reinforcement, providing high deformation capacity, and ductility to the prototypes. The average post‐peak load‐carrying capacity of the tested prototypes at a deflection seven times higher than the deflection at yield initiation of the conventional reinforcement was still 90% of the average peak load. Regarding the BSC, a total of 26 proposals were received and involved 94 participants from 29 institutions and 17 countries, with 53.9% using smeared crack models (SCMs), 30.8% a concrete damage plasticity (CDP) model, 3.8% discrete crack models (DCMs) and 11.5% considered as “other models.” From these simulations it was verified, in average terms, that SCM assured the best predictive performance apart from the average strain in the SFRC and the maximum crack width which were better predicted by DCM. More accurate predictions were obtained by using in‐house software than by adopting commercial software.

Reply to correspondence on Correspondence regarding "Reply to: "Decreasing performance of HCC prediction models during antiviral therapy for hepatitis B: what else to keep in mind"".

Reply to correspondence on Correspondence regarding "Reply to: "Decreasing performance of HCC prediction models during antiviral therapy for hepatitis B: what else to keep in mind"".

Diagnostic Performance of Machine Learning-based Models in Neonatal Sepsis: A Systematic Review.

Timely diagnosis of neonatal sepsis is challenging. We aimed to systematically evaluate the diagnostic performance of sophisticated machine learning (ML) techniques for the prediction of neonatal sepsis. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane CENTRAL databases using "neonate," "sepsis" and "machine learning" as search terms. We included studies that developed or validated an ML algorithm to predict neonatal sepsis. Those incorporating automated vital-sign data were excluded. Among 5008 records, 74 full-text articles were screened. Two reviewers extracted information as per the CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) checklist. We followed the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) guideline extension for diagnostic test accuracy reviews and used the PROBAST tool for risk of bias assessment. Primary outcome was a predictive performance of ML models in terms of sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values. We generated a hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristics curve for pooled analysis. Of 19 studies (15,984 participants) with 76 ML models, the random forest algorithm was the most employed. The candidate predictors per model ranged from 5 to 93; most included birth weight and gestation. None performed external validation. The risk of bias was high (18 studies). For the prediction of any sepsis (14 studies), pooled sensitivity was 0.87 (95% credible interval: 0.75-0.94) and specificity was 0.89 (95% credible interval: 0.77-0.95). Pooled area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.94 (95% credible interval: 0.92-0.96). All studies, except one, used data from high- or upper-middle-income countries. With unavailable probability thresholds, the performance could not be assessed with sufficient precision. ML techniques have good diagnostic accuracy for neonatal sepsis. The need for the development of context-specific models from high-burden countries is highlighted.

MOREOVER: multiomics MR-guided radiotherapy optimization in locally advanced rectal cancer

BackgroundComplete response prediction in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients is generally focused on the radiomics analysis of staging MRI. Until now, omics information extracted from gut microbiota and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) have not been integrated in composite biomarkers-based models, thereby omitting valuable information from the decision-making process. In this study, we aim to integrate radiomics with gut microbiota and ctDNA-based genomics tracking during neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT).MethodsThe main hypothesis of the MOREOVER study is that the incorporation of composite biomarkers with radiomics-based models used in the THUNDER-2 trial will improve the pathological complete response (pCR) predictive power of such models, paving the way for more accurate and comprehensive personalized treatment approaches. This is due to the inclusion of actionable omics variables that may disclose previously unknown correlations with radiomics. Aims of this study are: - to generate longitudinal microbiome data linked to disease resistance to nCRT and postulate future therapeutic strategies in terms of both type of treatment and timing, such as fecal microbiota transplant in non-responding patients. - to describe the genomics pattern and ctDNA data evolution throughout the nCRT treatment in order to support the prediction outcome and identify new risk-category stratification agents. - to mine and combine collected data through integrated multi-omics approaches (radiomics, metagenomics, metabolomics, metatranscriptomics, human genomics, ctDNA) in order to increase the performance of the radiomics-based response predictive model for LARC patients undergoing nCRT on MR-Linac.Experimental designThe objective of the MOREOVER project is to enrich the phase II THUNDER-2 trial (NCT04815694) with gut microbiota and ctDNA omics information, by exploring the possibility to enhance predictive performance of the developed model. Longitudinal ctDNA genomics, microbiome and genomics data will be analyzed on 7 timepoints: prior to nCRT, during nCRT on a weekly basis and prior to surgery. Specific modelling will be performed for data harvested, according to the TRIPOD statements.DiscussionWe expect to find differences in fecal microbiome, ctDNA and radiomics profiles between the two groups of patients (pCR and not pCR). In addition, we expect to find a variability in the stability of the considered omics features over time. The identified profiles will be inserted into dedicated modelling solutions to set up a multiomics decision support system able to achieve personalized treatments.

An ensemble machine learning model for predicting one-year mortality in elderly coronary heart disease patients with anemia

ObjectiveThis study was designed to develop and validate a robust predictive model for one-year mortality in elderly coronary heart disease (CHD) patients with anemia using machine learning methods.MethodsDemographics, tests, comorbidities, and drugs were collected for a cohort of 974 elderly patients with CHD. A prospective analysis was performed to evaluate predictive performances of the developed models. External validation of models was performed in a series of 112 elderly CHD patients with anemia.ResultsThe overall one-year mortality was 43.6%. Risk factors included heart rate, chronic heart failure, tachycardia and β receptor blockers. Protective factors included hemoglobin, albumin, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), aspirin, clopidogrel, calcium channel blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), and statins. Compared with other algorithms, an ensemble machine learning model performed the best with area under the curve (95% confidence interval) being 0.828 (0.805–0.870) and Brier score being 0.170. Calibration and density curves further confirmed favorable predicted probability and discriminative ability of an ensemble machine learning model. External validation of Ensemble Model also exhibited good performance with area under the curve (95% confidence interval) being 0.825 (0.734–0.916) and Brier score being 0.185. Patients in the high-risk group had more than six-fold probability of one-year mortality compared with those in the low-risk group (P < 0.001). Shaley Additive exPlanation identified the top five risk factors that associated with one-year mortality were hemoglobin, albumin, eGFR, LVEF, and ACEIs/ARBs.ConclusionsThis model identifies key risk factors and protective factors, providing valuable insights for improving risk assessment, informing clinical decision-making and performing targeted interventions. It outperforms other algorithms with predictive performance and provides significant opportunities for personalized risk mitigation strategies, with clinical implications for improving patient care.

Research on maintenance cycle prediction for energy equipment with limited and sensitive data

Failures in natural gas compressor units can lead to significant production incidents that impact energy security, making intelligent preventative maintenance of this equipment critically important. Given the limited and sensitive data from critical energy equipment like natural gas compressor units, this paper conducts preventative maintenance research based on domain adaptation and federated learning (DFPM), and proposes a novel maintenance cycle prediction framework. The feasibility of the proposed method was validated through historical operational data from field natural gas compressor units, providing a data-oriented reference for maintenance decision-making. Verification results demonstrate that the proposed multi-level adversarial domain adaptation method possesses superior feature representation capability, enhancing the preservation of the original degradation trend for time series data compared to traditional DA models. The novel federated adversarial strategy presented in this paper can effectively transfer source domain knowledge to the target domain, further enhancing the cross-unit predictive performance of the target domain model with limited samples. Additionally, this strategy with the chaotic multi-mode predictive model further improves the limitations of low parallelism and efficiency in traditional RNN-based prediction models while ensuring data security. This research provides a new perspective for the intelligent operation and maintenance of large energy equipment, which is of significance in practical engineering.

Limited Sampling Strategies Fail to Accurately Predict Mycophenolic Acid Area Under the Curve in Kidney Transplant Recipients and the Impact of Enterohepatic Recirculation.

Therapeutic drug monitoring for mycophenolic acid (MPA) is challenging due to difficulties in measuring the area under the curve (AUC). Limited sampling strategies (LSSs) have been developed for MPA therapeutic drug monitoring but come with risk of unacceptable performance. The authors hypothesized that the poor predictive performance of LSSs were due to the variability in MPA enterohepatic recirculation (EHR). This study is the first to evaluate LSSs models performance in the context of EHR. Adult kidney transplant recipients (n = 84) receiving oral mycophenolate mofetil underwent intensive MPA pharmacokinetic sampling. MPA AUC0-12hr and EHR were determined. Published MPA LSSs in kidney transplant recipients receiving tacrolimus were evaluated for their predictive performance in estimating AUC0-12hr in our full cohort and separately in individuals with high and low EHR. None of the evaluated LSS models (n = 12) showed good precision or accuracy in predicting MPA AUC0-12hr in the full cohort. In the high EHR group, models with late timepoints had better accuracy but low precision, except for 1 model with late timepoints at 6 and 10 hours postdose, which had marginally acceptable precision. For all models, the good guess of predicted AUC0-12hr (±15% of observed AUC0-12hr) was highly variable (range, full cohort = 19%-61.9%; high EHR = 4.5%-65.9%; low EHR = 27.5%-62.5%). The predictive performance of the LSS models varied according to EHR status. Timepoints ≥5 hours postdose in LSS models are essential to capture EHR. Models and strategies that incorporate EHR during development are required to accurately ascertain MPA exposure.

Reply to: "Decreasing performance of HCC prediction models during antiviral therapy for hepatitis B: what else to keep in mind".

Reply to: "Decreasing performance of HCC prediction models during antiviral therapy for hepatitis B: what else to keep in mind".

Utilizing principal component analysis to enhance machine learning in bankruptcy prediction: A comparative investigation

In the global economic environment, bankruptcy prediction is essential for managing financial risks. With the advancement of machine learning techniques, accurate prediction using these methods has become a research focus. This study explores the efficiency and accuracy of improved machine learning models for bankruptcy prediction through principal component analysis (PCA). By utilizing a dataset from the banking industry in Taiwan, this paper compares the performance of PCA with and without processed data using logistic regression modeling. The research methodology includes data preprocessing, PCA downscaling, and subsequent model training and testing. The key research question is whether PCA preprocessing can significantly improve the operational efficiency and predictive accuracy of the model. It is found that the model with PCA outperforms the model without PCA in terms of processing time and accuracy. This suggests that PCA can effectively improve the performance of bankruptcy prediction models and provide a more effective tool for financial risk management. These findings provide useful insights into other areas of financial analysis using machine learning and support the value of applying PCA in predictive modeling.

Digital Mapping and Scenario Prediction of Soil Salinity in Coastal Lands Based on Multi-Source Data Combined with Machine Learning Algorithms

Salinization is a major soil degradation process threatening ecosystems and posing a great challenge to sustainable agriculture and food security worldwide. This study aimed to evaluate the potential of state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms in soil salinity (EC1:5) mapping. Further, we predicted the distribution patterns of soil salinity under different future scenarios in the Yellow River Delta. A geodatabase comprising 201 soil samples and 19 conditioning factors (containing data based on remote sensing images such as Landsat, SPOT/VEGETATION PROBA-V, SRTMDEMUTM, Sentinel-1, and Sentinel-2) was used to compare the predictive performance of empirical bayesian kriging regression, random forest, and CatBoost models. The CatBoost model exhibited the highest performance with both training and testing datasets, with an average MAE of 1.86, an average RMSE of 3.11, and an average R2 of 0.59 in the testing datasets. Among explanatory factors, soil Na was the most important for predicting EC1:5, followed by the normalized difference vegetation index and soil organic carbon. Soil EC1:5 predictions suggested that the Yellow River Delta region faces severe salinization, particularly in coastal zones. Among three scenarios with increases in soil organic carbon content (1, 2, and 3 g/kg), the 2 g/kg scenario resulted in the best improvement effect on saline–alkali soils with EC1:5 &gt; 2 ds/m. Our results provide valuable insights for policymakers to improve saline–alkali land quality and plan regional agricultural development.

Proteomic signatures improve risk prediction for common and rare diseases.

For many diseases there are delays in diagnosis due to a lack of objective biomarkers for disease onset. Here, in 41,931 individuals from the United Kingdom Biobank Pharma Proteomics Project, we integrated measurements of ~3,000 plasma proteins with clinical information to derive sparse prediction models for the 10-year incidence of 218 common and rare diseases (81-6,038 cases). We then compared prediction models developed using proteomic data with models developed using either basic clinical information alone or clinical information combined with data from 37 clinical assays. The predictive performance of sparse models including as few as 5 to 20 proteins was superior to the performance of models developed using basic clinical information for 67 pathologically diverse diseases (median delta C-index = 0.07; range = 0.02-0.31). Sparse protein models further outperformed models developed using basic information combined with clinical assay data for 52 diseases, including multiple myeloma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, motor neuron disease, pulmonary fibrosis and dilated cardiomyopathy. For multiple myeloma, single-cell RNA sequencing from bone marrow in newly diagnosed patients showed that four of the five predictor proteins were expressed specifically in plasma cells, consistent with the strong predictive power of these proteins. External replication of sparse protein models in the EPIC-Norfolk study showed good generalizability for prediction of the six diseases tested. These findings show that sparse plasma protein signatures, including both disease-specific proteins and protein predictors shared across several diseases, offer clinically useful prediction of common and rare diseases.

Prediction of antimicrobial resistance in Klebsiella pneumoniae using genomic and metagenomic next-generation sequencing data.

Klebsiella pneumoniae is a significant pathogen with increasing resistance and high mortality rates. Conventional antibiotic susceptibility testing methods are time-consuming. Next-generation sequencing has shown promise for predicting antimicrobial resistance (AMR). This study aims to develop prediction models using whole-genome sequencing data and assess their feasibility with metagenomic next-generation sequencing data from clinical samples. On the basis of 4170 K. pneumoniae genomes, the main genetic characteristics associated with AMR were identified using a LASSO regression model. Consequently, the prediction model was established, validated and optimized using clinical isolate read simulation sequences. To evaluate the efficacy of the model, clinical specimens were collected. Four predictive models for amikacin, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin and piperacillin/tazobactam, initially had positive predictive values (PPVs) of 90%, 85%, 84% and 94%, respectively, when they were originally constructed. When applied to clinical specimens, their PPVs increased to 96%, 96%, 95% and 100%, respectively. Meanwhile, there were negative predictive values (NPVs) of 100% for ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin, and 'not applicable' (NA) for amikacin and piperacillin/tazobactam. Our method achieved antibacterial phenotype classification accuracy rates of 96.08% for amikacin, 96.15% for ciprofloxacin, 95.31% for levofloxacin and 100% for piperacillin/tazobactam. The sequence-based prediction antibiotic susceptibility testing (AST) reported results in an average time of 19.5 h, compared with the 67.9 h needed for culture-based AST, resulting in a significant reduction of 48.4 h. These preliminary results demonstrated that the performance of prediction model for a clinically significant antimicrobial-species pair was comparable to that of phenotypic methods, thereby encouraging the expansion of sequence-based susceptibility prediction and its clinical validation and application.

Predictors of Symptom Reduction and Remission Among People with Anxiety: Secondary Analyses from a Randomized Controlled Trial.

Despite the substantial disease burden of anxiety disorders, only limited or conflicting data on prognostic factors is available. Most studies include patients in the secondary healthcare sector thus, the generalizability of findings is limited. The present study examines predictors of symptom reduction and remission in patients with anxiety disorders in a primary care setting. 214 patients with anxiety disorders, recruited as part of the Collabri Flex trial, were included in secondary analyses. Data on potential predictors of anxiety symptoms at 6-month follow-up was collected at baseline, including patient characteristics related to demography, illness, comorbidity, functional level, life quality, and self-efficacy. The outcomes were symptom reduction and remission. Univariate and multivariate linear and logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the associations between predictor variables and the outcome, and machine-learning methods were also applied. In multiple linear regression analysis, anxiety severity at baseline (β = -6.05, 95% CI = -7.54,-4.56, p < 0.001) and general psychological problems and symptoms of psychopathology (SCL-90-R score) (β = 2.19, 95% CI = 0.24,4.14, p = 0.028) were significantly associated with symptom change at 6months. Moreover, self-efficacy was associated with the outcome, however no longer significant in the multiple regression model. In multiple logistic regression analysis, anxiety severity at baseline (OR = 0.54, 95% CI = -1.13,-0.12, p = 0.018) was significantly associated with remission at 6months. There was no predictive performance of the machine-learning models. Our study contributes with information that could be valuable knowledge for managing anxiety disorders in primary care.

Performance of risk prediction models for diabetic foot ulcer: a meta-analysis.

The number of prediction models for diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) risk is increasing, but their methodological quality and clinical applicability are uncertain. We conducted a systematic review to assess their performance. We searched PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases up to 10 February 2024 and extracted relevant information from selected prediction models. The Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) checklist was used to assess bias risk and applicability. All statistical analyses were conducted in Stata 14.0. Initially, 13,562 studies were retrieved, leading to the inclusion of five development and five validation models from eight studies. DFU incidence ranged from 6% to 16.8%, with age and hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c) commonly used as predictive factors. All included studies had a high risk of bias, mainly due to disparities in population characteristics and methodology. In the meta-analysis, we observed area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.78 (95% CI [0.69-0.89]) for development models and 0.84 (95% CI [0.79-0.90]) for validation models. DFU risk prediction models show good overall accuracy, but there is a risk of bias. Adherence to the PROBAST checklist is crucial for improving their clinical applicability.

Systematic Evaluation of Hematoma Expansion Models in Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression Approach.

Accurate prediction of hematoma expansion (HE) in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) is crucial for tailoring patient-specific treatments and improving outcomes. Recent advancements have yielded numerous HE risk factors and predictive models. This study aims to evaluate the characteristics and efficacy of existing HE prediction models, offering insights for performance enhancement. A comprehensive search was conducted in PubMed for observational studies and randomized controlled trials focusing on HE prediction, written in English. The prediction models were categorized based on their incorporated features and modeling methodology. Rigorous quality and bias assessments were performed. A meta-analysis of studies reporting C-statistics was executed to assess and compare the performance of current HE prediction models. Meta-regression was utilized to explore heterogeneity sources. From 358 initial records, 22 studies were deemed eligible, encompassing traditional models, hematoma imaging feature models, and models based on artificial intelligence (AI) or radiomics. Meta-analysis of 11 studies, involving 12,087 sICH patients, revealed an aggregated C-statistic of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.69 - 0.78) across seven HE prediction models. Eight characteristics related to development cohorts were identified as key factors contributing to performance variability among these models. The findings indicate that the current predictive capacity for HE risk remains suboptimal. Enhanced accuracy in HE prediction is vital for effectively targeting patient populations most likely to benefit from tailored treatment strategies.

Computational Hemodynamics-Based Growth Prediction for Small Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms: Laminar Simulations Versus Large Eddy Simulations.

Prior studies have shown that computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations help assess patient-specific hemodynamics in abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs); patient-specific hemodynamic stressors are frequently used to predict an AAA's growth. Previous studies have utilized both laminar and turbulent simulation models to simulate hemodynamics. However, the impact of different CFD simulation models on the predictive modeling of AAA growth remains unknown and is thus the knowledge gap that motivates this study. Specifically, CFD simulations were performed for 70 AAA models derived from 70 patients' computed tomography angiography (CTA) data with known growth status (i.e., fast-growing [> 5mm/yr] or slowly growing [< 5mm/yr]). We used laminar and large eddy simulation (LES) models to obtain hemodynamic parameters to predict AAAs' growth status. Predicting the growth status of AAAs was based on morphological, hemodynamic, and patient health parameters in conjunction with three classical machine learning (ML) classifiers, namely, support vector machine (SVM), K-nearest neighbor (KNN), and generalized linear model (GLM). Our preliminary results estimated aneurysmal flow stability and wall shear stress (WSS) were comparable in both laminar and LES flow simulations. Moreover, computed WSS and velocity-related hemodynamic variables obtained from the laminar and LES simulations showed comparable abilities in differentiating the growth status of AAAs. More importantly, the predictive modeling performance of the three ML classifiers mentioned above was similar, with less than a 2% difference observed (p-value>0.05). In closing, our findings suggest that two different flow simulations investigated did not significantly affect outcomes of computational hemodynamics and predictive modeling of AAAs' growth status, given the data investigated.