Performance Modeling Approach Research Articles

Modeling the Service Life of Temporary Airfield Operational Surfaces Under Multi-Pass Aircraft Trafficking

Expeditionary Airfield (EAF) surfacing systems are designed to create temporary aircraft operating surfaces. Modeling the service life of EAF surfacing systems including the matting system, aircraft, and subgrade, has historically proven difficult, exacerbated by variability between systems and the multitude of mechanisms that can constitute failure. The study presented herein outlines the development and implementation of a performance modeling approach that includes a multi-scale scheme that accounts for local characteristics of the connection points of the EAF matting system, coupled to the global characteristics of the matting array to predict cyclic passes to failure. Finite element studies were conducted for an EAF surfacing system brickwork configuration subjected to aircraft strut loads over varying California Bearing Ratio (CBR) subgrades to calibrate a transfer function to full-scale trafficking experiments. The proposed framework is then used to predict the rate of subgrade deformation for additional lay patterns, which successfully ranked the performance of each relative to full-scale trafficking experiments. An approach is proposed to couple the rate of subgrade deformation with local finite element models to capture increasing joint damage as permanent deformation accumulates, and supplemented by a variable amplitude cycle counting and damage accumulation algorithm that yields reasonable agreement with full-scale experiments while capturing the transition in failure mechanisms at higher CBR values. The results of the study presented herein captures the propensity for end connector and subgrade failure over a range of subgrade CBRs and shows promise for a broader performance framework that can be extended to other EAF surfacing systems, aircraft types, and specific matting lay patterns.

Performance analysis of a blockchain process modeling: Application of distributed ledger technology in trading, clearing and settlement processes

This study aims to assess the extent to which blockchain technology (BCT) may constitute an alternative to the conventional stock trading system and emphasize the changing roles of the key parties. It is expected that BCT would enhance the performance of the process across the three stages (i.e. trading, clearing and settlement within the stock exchange environment). A thorough literature review is conducted to understand the BCT performance modeling techniques and approaches (empirical and analytical) and to examine the theoretical potentials and capabilities of BCT in the financial markets. The case study and simulation methods are used to evaluate the impact of BCT implementation in optimizing the process of trading, clearing and settlement in Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX) stock-trading activities. This paper presents a simulation analysis comparing a blockchain system with a traditional trading system in the context of stock market. The simulation procedures involve modeling processes over different durations and transaction volumes, using metrics such as process time and cycle time to evaluate performance. The performance index combines these metrics with weights to ensure accurate and consistent measurements. Simulation results reveal that the blockchain system significantly outperforms the current trading system, especially at higher transaction volumes, highlighting its scalability and efficiency. A threshold of 30,000 transactions is identified as the point where blockchain’s benefits become apparent. The analysis shows that blockchain significantly elevate the process efficiency. It reduces both cycle time and process time across varying transaction volumes, maintaining consistency and reliability. Additionally, a simple simulation using the Hyperledger Fabric platform demonstrates the practical implementation of a permissioned blockchain for clearing transactions, emphasizing the system's capability to manage high transaction volumes efficiently and securely. The use of blockchain network for handling seamless transactions using pre-defined smart contracts significantly improves the performance of the stock trading processes, specifically in the clearing phase. Interestingly, the BCT system drops the need for a “third party” (i.e. stock custodian) across the three stages. At the end of the paper, we propose a thereat mitigating model for stock trading with a new blockchain system.

A voyage-level ship performance modelling approach for the simulation of the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system

The Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system plays an essential role in logistics to the ports surrounded by frozen sea in winter. Coordination of icebreakers is crucial to guarantee sufficient transit speed of merchant ships and minimize the waiting time. Simulation of the winter navigation system provides the opportunity to optimize the system performance and help the planning of future icebreaker fleets. For simulation, estimation of ship performance, such as the actual speed in ice, is essential. Calculation methods to estimate ship performance in such contexts are typically required to be of simple form without the need for heavy computation. Existing ship performance models embedded in route optimization algorithms and winter navigation simulations in the literature are often oversimplified. This paper proposes a systematic ship performance modelling approach which accounts for a wide range of parameters, such as ice condition and parameters, power variation and icebreaker assistance. The approach is validated against real ship voyages. The proposed approach is implemented into a simulation model which simulates the operation of merchant ships and icebreakers on the Baltic Sea. Analyses are conducted on the system level in terms of the waiting time of merchant ships needed for icebreakers as well as the energy consumption.

Model-based fault detection in photovoltaic systems: A comprehensive review and avenues for enhancement

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have become a vital renewable energy source, witnessing rapid global demand. Nevertheless, these systems are susceptible to faults and anomalies that can deteriorate performance and yield significant consequences. Hence, this paper is dedicated to reviewing recent advancements in monitoring, modeling, and fault detection methods for PV systems. It encompasses diverse PV system types, including grid-connected, stand-alone, and hybrid configurations, and delves into the latest data acquisition and monitoring techniques. The review also discusses various performance modeling approaches, including empirical, analytical, and numerical models, highlighting the significance of model validation and calibration. Furthermore, it provides a comprehensive analysis of model-based fault detection techniques. Overall, this paper underscores the pivotal role of fault detection in PV systems and offers a thorough comprehension of available techniques vital for enhancing system management and maintenance.

Event-Based Moving Target Defense in Cloud Computing with VM Migration: A Performance Modeling Approach

Event-Based Moving Target Defense in Cloud Computing with VM Migration: A Performance Modeling Approach

The reactive flow evolution of the polymer-bonded explosive PBX 9502: Experiments and model validation in extreme pressure regimes

The shock-to-detonation transition properties of the triaminotrinitrobenzene based PBX 9502 high explosive (HE) are experimentally and computationally explored in extremely high input pressure conditions. These include both slightly sub-Chapman–Jouguet and overdriven input pressure conditions, namely, ∼25 and ∼31 GPa, respectively. Our experiments capture the transient buildup of a shock-induced reaction via measurement of HE and polymethyl methacrylate window interface particle velocity profiles for a variety of sample thicknesses for this insensitive HE. These observations necessitate extremely thin explosive samples, and the high rates of reaction provide a considerable challenge to optical diagnostics. Samples at these thicknesses also provide an opportunity for evaluation of potential micro-structure effects on the resulting shock-to-detonation-transition measurements. To address this, the thin samples are also characterized via x-ray micro-computed tomography. Finally, a pair of previously established continuum-level detonation performance modeling approaches for PBX 9502 were used to analyze the experiments. The employed model variants crucially differ in their definition of each model’s empirical reaction rate functional form, utilization of shock state quantities, and local flow variable dependencies. As a result, the present experiments provide a novel platform to evaluate the quantitative and qualitative consequences stemming from these modeling choices in a challenging initiation scenario, largely beyond the chosen calibration range of either model. This new experimental information will provide a platform for both improved physics and model parameterizations for this well-studied explosive.

ZPerf: A Statistical Gray-Box Approach to Performance Modeling and Extrapolation for Scientific Lossy Compression

As simulation-based scientific discovery is being further scaled up on high-performance computing systems, the disparity between compute and I/O has continued to widen. As such, domain scientists are forced to save only a small portion of their simulation data to persistent storage, and as a consequence, important physics may be discarded for data analysis. Error-bounded lossy compression has made tremendous progress recently in bridging the gap between compute and I/O, and played an increasingly important role in science productions. Nevertheless, a key hurdle to the wide adoption of lossy compression is the lack of understanding of compression performance, which is the result of the complex interaction between data, error bound, and compression algorithm. In this work, we present zPerf, a statistical gray-box performance modeling approach for scientific lossy compression. Our contributions are threefold: 1) We develop zPerf to estimate the performance of prediction-based and transform-based lossy compression techniques, based on in-depth understanding and statistical modeling for data features and core compression metrics; 2) We demonstrate the in-detailed implementation of zPerf using two case studies, where we derive the performance modeling for SZ and ZFP, two leading lossy compressors; 3) We evaluate the effectiveness of zPerf on real-world datasets across various domains. Based on the evaluation, we demonstrate the efficacy of zPerf performance model; 4) We further discuss three case studies where zPerf is applied to extrapolate the compression ratio of SZ and ZFP with alternative encoding schemes as well as ZFP with an alternative transform scheme. Through the case studies, we demonstrate the potential of zPerf for exploring the design space of lossy compression, which has hardly been studied in the literature

Bayesian heterogeneous degradation performance modeling with an unknown number of sub‐populations

AbstractSuccessful modeling of degradation data is of great importance for both accurate reliability assessment and effective maintenance decision‐making. Many of existing degradation performance modeling approaches either assume a homogeneous population of units or characterize a heterogeneous population with some restrictive assumptions, such as pre‐specifying the number of sub‐populations. This paper proposes a Bayesian heterogeneous degradation performance modeling framework to relax the conventional modeling assumptions. Specifically, a Bayesian non‐parametric model formulation and learning algorithm are proposed to characterize the historical degradation data of a heterogeneous population of units with an unknown number of homogeneous sub‐populations and allowing the joint model estimation and sub‐population number identification. Based on the off‐line population‐level model, an on‐line individual‐level degradation model with sequential model updating is further developed to improve remaining useful life prediction of individual units with sparse data. A real case study using the heterogeneous degradation data of deteriorating roads is provided to illustrate the proposed approach and demonstrate its validity.

CM-CASL: Comparison-based performance modeling of software systems via collaborative active and semisupervised learning

Configuration tuning for large software systems is generally challenging due to the complex configuration space and expensive performance evaluation. Most existing approaches follow a two-phase process, first learning a regression-based performance prediction model on available samples and then searching for the configurations with satisfactory performance using the learned model. Such regression-based models often suffer from the scarcity of samples due to the enormous time and resources required to run a large software system with a specific configuration. Moreover, previous studies have shown that even a highly accurate regression-based model may fail to discern the relative merit between two configurations, whereas performance comparison is actually one fundamental strategy for configuration tuning. To address these issues, this paper proposes CM-CASL, a Comparison-based performance Modeling approach for software systems via Collaborative Active and Semisupervised Learning. CM-CASL learns a classification model that compares the performance of two given configurations, and enhances the samples through a collaborative labeling process by both human experts and classifiers using an integration of active and semisupervised learning. Experimental results demonstrate that CM-CASL outperforms two state-of-the-art performance modeling approaches in terms of both classification accuracy and rank accuracy, and thus provides a better performance model for the subsequent work of configuration tuning.

ML-Based Performance Modeling in SDN-Enabled Data Center Networks

Traffic optimization and smart buffering are fundamental to achieve both great application performance and resource efficiency in data centers with heterogeneous workloads, including incast and elephant traffics. However, general performance models providing insights on how various factors affect traffic performance metrics needed by these management functions are missing. For the special case of incast, the existing models are analytical ones, either tightly coupled with a particular protocol version or specific to certain empirical data. Motivated by this observation, this paper proposes an SDN-enabled machine-learning-based performance modeling approach in data center networks that leverages random forest predictions. Evaluations based on datasets constructed through intensive NS-3 simulations show that we can achieve accurate predictions of incast and elephant performance metrics based on various features. With this performance modeling capability, smart buffering schemes or traffic optimization algorithms could anticipate and efficiently optimize system parameters adjustment to achieve optimal performance continuously in data centers.

Degradation of Insulating Glass Units: Thermal Performance, Measurements and Energy Impacts

Insulating glass unit (IGU) degradation has been studied extensively. However, there is limited understanding of how present durability evaluation standards relate to product lifetime. Furthermore, there is debate on how to quantify performance of installed windows over time to better understand degradation processes. More knowledge on these topics is required to link durability evaluation to product lifetime projections based on energy performance. Energy models provide helpful estimations of total annual building energy consumption. However, most models are based on “as installed” performance of envelope components and fail to account for performance degradation. This can lead to an underestimation of building lifetime energy consumption. A better understanding of the relationship between durability and energy performance can inform integration of degradation dynamics into energy modeling software. This will improve lifetime building energy consumption estimations as well as inform appropriate retrofit strategies and timing. This paper reviews current durability literature, various standards for window performance ratings and weathering methods, existing in situ IGU energy performance measurement techniques, and whole-building energy effects. The challenges and disparities among various studies are analyzed and discussed. The authors hope that further work in this area will lead to the development of improved in situ test methods to assess IGU degradation in the field and link this knowledge to improved energy performance modeling approaches.

Correlated Bayesian Model Fusion: Efficient High-Dimensional Performance Modeling of Analog/RF Integrated Circuits Over Multiple Corners

Efficient high-dimensional performance modeling of analog/RF circuits over multiple corners is an important-yet-challenging task. In this article, we propose a novel performance modeling approach for analog/RF circuits, referred to as correlated Bayesian model fusion (C-BMF). The key idea is to encode the correlation information for both model template and coefficient magnitude among different corners by using a unified prior distribution. Next, the prior distribution is combined with a few simulation samples via Bayesian inference to efficiently determine the unknown model coefficients. Two circuit examples designed in a commercial 40-nm CMOS process demonstrate that C-BMF achieves about <inline-formula xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> <tex-math notation="LaTeX">$2\times $ </tex-math></inline-formula> cost reduction over the traditional state-of-the-art modeling technique without surrendering any accuracy.

Experimental Machine Learning Approach for Optical Turbulence and FSO Outage Performance Modeling

A laser beam propagating in the free space suffers numerous degradation effects. In the context of free space optical communications (FSOCs), this results in reduced availability of the link. This study provides a comprehensive comparison between six machine learning (ML) regression algorithms for modeling the refractive index structure parameter (Cn2). A single neural network (ANN), a random forest (RF), a decision tree (DT), a gradient boosting regressor (GBR), a k-nearest neighbors (KNN) and a deep neural network (DNN) model are applied to estimate Cn2 from experimentally measured macroscopic meteorological parameters obtained from several devices installed at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) campus over a period of 11 months. The data set was divided into four quarters and the performance of each algorithm in every quarter was determined based on the R2 and the RMSE metric. The corresponding RMSE were 0.091 for ANN, 0.064 for RF, 0.075 for GBR, 0.073 for KNN, 0.083 for DT and 0.085 for DNN. The second part of the study investigated the influence of atmospheric turbulence in the availability of a notional FSOC link, by calculating the outage probability (Pout) assuming a gamma gamma (GG) modeled turbulent channel. A threshold value of 99% availability was assumed for the link to be functional. A DNN classification algorithm was then developed to model the link status (On-Off) based on the previously mentioned meteorological parameters.

Flexible Task Analysis Framework: Feedforward and Feedback

Researchers and practitioners have different emphases and goals when conducting task or system analyses. This paper proposes a task analysis framework to augment other task analysis and human performance modeling approaches. The intent is not to replace but provide flexibility to use. The proposed framework includes critical processes (i.e., modules) that must be considered based on psychological theories, methodologies, and findings. It integrates the feedforward mechanism in motor and cognitive tasks in order to explain how users achieve multiple goals via a single task and prevent or mitigate undesired conflicts. It also includes a General Purposes module that combines some perspectives of user needs in user experience and functional purposes in work domain analysis to accommodate different domains’ characteristics. Ultimately, a task analysis pertaining to the work carried out by an electric grid transmission operator was conducted as an example of how this framework can be implemented.

Actions at the Edge: Jointly Optimizing the Resources in Multi-Access Edge Computing

Multi-access edge computing (MEC) is an emerging paradigm that pushes resources for sensing, communications, computing, storage, and intelligence to the premises closer to the end users (i.e., the edge) so that they can leverage the nearby rich resources to improve their quality of experience. Due to the growing emerging applications targeted at intelligentizing life-sustaining cyber-physical systems, this paradigm has become a hot research topic, particularly when MEC is utilized to provide edge intelligence and real-time processing and control. This article elaborates the research issues along this line, including basic concepts and performance metrics, killer applications, architectural design, modeling approaches and solutions, and future research directions. It is hoped that this article provides a quick introduction to this fruitful research area, particularly for beginning researchers.

Performance Modeling and Simulation for Water Distribution Networks

This study develops an implementation framework for asset management strategic planning of water distribution networks to meet sustainable infrastructure, socio-political, and financial targets over the life cycle of the infrastructure. The proposed framework is comprised of three decision-making layers: (1) Visions and Values, (2) Function, and (3) Performance. The asset management strategy framework is implemented and validated by demonstrating functionality and value by using data from three water utilities in Canada. The Visions and Values layer is set to meet the needs of the water utilities' stakeholders. The Function layer uses an advanced system dynamics model to simulate and forecast the system's future behavior. The Performance layer benchmarks, compares, and graphically illustrates the situation and performance of water utilities against each other regardless of their size. Benchmarking results indicate that all three water utilities can sustainably meet the strategic targets established in the Visions and Values layer of the asset management strategy over the benchmarking period. The impact of the desired cash reserve on infrastructure and financial benchmarking performance indicators is also investigated to explore the “optimal” combination of allowable fee-hike and rehabilitation rates using the contour plots developed over the benchmarking period. The results indicate that the optimal combinations of allowable fee-hike of ~8% per year and rehabilitation rate of 1.3% per year along with a 1–4% cash reserve, depends on the network condition, will allow water utilities to have sufficient funds to meet their strategic targets. The performance modeling and simulation approach presented in this study represents a powerful tool for other utilities to develop optimal strategic and operational plans for their networks and thus better service to their stakeholders.

Erratum to: A Hybrid Machine Learning Approach for Performance Modeling of Cloud-Based Big Data Applications

Erratum to: A Hybrid Machine Learning Approach for Performance Modeling of Cloud-Based Big Data Applications

A Hybrid Machine Learning Approach for Performance Modeling of Cloud-Based Big Data Applications

Abstract Nowadays, Apache Hadoop and Apache Spark are two of the most prominent distributed solutions for processing big data applications on the market. Since in many cases these frameworks are adopted to support business critical activities, it is often important to predict with fair confidence the execution time of submitted applications, for instance when service-level agreements are established with end-users. In this work, we propose and validate a hybrid approach for the performance prediction of big data applications running on clouds, which exploits both analytical modeling and machine learning (ML) techniques and it is able to achieve a good accuracy without too many time consuming and costly experiments on a real setup. The experimental results show how the proposed approach attains improvement in accuracy, number of experiments to be run on the operational system and cost over applying ML techniques without any support from analytical models. Moreover, we compare our approach with Ernest, an ML-based technique proposed in the literature by the Spark inventors. Experiments show that Ernest can accurately estimate the performance in interpolating scenarios while it fails to predict the performance when configurations with increasing number of cores are considered. Finally, a comparison with a similar hybrid approach proposed in the literature demonstrates how our approach significantly reduce prediction errors especially when few experiments on the real system are performed.

Effects of Non-Speech Auditory Cues on Control Transition Behaviors in Semi-Automated Vehicles: Empirical Study, Modeling, and Validation

ABSTRACT In semi-automated vehicles, non-speech sounds have been prevalently used as auditory displays for control transitions since these sounds convey urgency well. However, there are no standards of specifications for warning sounds so that diverse non-speech sounds are being employed. To shed light on this, the effects of different non-speech auditory warnings on driver performance were investigated and quantified through the experimental study and human performance modeling approaches. Twenty-four young drivers drove in the driving simulator and experienced both handover and takeover transitions between manual and automated modes while performing a secondary task. The reaction times for handover and takeover, mental workload, and subjective responses were reported. Overall, a traditional warning sound with many repetitions and an indicator sound with decreasing polarity outperformed and were preferred. Additionally, a mathematical model, using the Queuing Network-Model Human Processor (QN-MHP) framework, was applied to quantify the effects of auditory warnings’ acoustic characteristics on drivers’ reaction times in response to takeover request displays. The acoustic characteristics, including the fundamental frequency, the number of repetitions, and the range of dominant frequencies were utilized in modeling. The model was able to explain 99.7% of the experimental data with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.148. The present study can contribute to establishing standards and design guidelines for takeover request displays in semi-automated vehicles.

Machine learning prediction approach for dynamic performance modeling of an enhanced solar still desalination system

An enhanced design for a solar still desalination system which has been proposed in the previously conducted study of the research team is considered here, and the experimental data obtained during a year are employed to develop ANN models for that. Different types of artificial neural network (ANN), as one of the most popular machine learning approaches, are developed and compared together to find the best of them to predict the hourly produced distillate and water temperature in the basin, which are two key performance criteria of the system. Feedforward (FF), backpropagation (BP), and radial basis function (RBF) types of ANN are examined. According to the results, by having the coefficients of determination of 0.963111 and 0.977057, FF and RBF types are the best ANN structures for estimation of the hourly water production and water temperature in the basin, respectively. In addition, the annual error analysis done for the data not used to develop ANN models demonstrates that the average error in prediction of the hourly distillate production and water temperature in the basin varies from 9.03 and 5.13% in January (the highest values) to 4.06 and 2.07% in July (the lowest values), respectively. Moreover, the error for prediction of the daily water production is in the range of 2.41 to 5.84% in the year.