Perceptions Of Unpredictability Research Articles

Stigma as a local process: Stigma associated with opioid dependency in a rural-mixed Indiana county

BackgroundBecause the nature and magnitude of stigmatizing views associated with opioid dependency vary by social, cultural, and structural factors, strategies to reduce public stigma towards opioid dependency should vary by context. We leverage a unique dataset with evidence of multiple stigmatizing views to understand how to target interventions to reduce stigma in a state disproportionately impacted by the opioid epidemic, with a specific focus on a rural-mixed county. MethodsData come from the representative Person-to-Person Health Study (2018–2020) of 2,050 Indiana residents, 224 from the rural-mixed Fayette County. Bivariate statistics and multivariate regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between Fayette County and measures of stigma (e.g., desire for social distance, prejudice, causal attributions) relative to the rest of Indiana. ResultsFayette County statistically differed from the rest of Indiana on most demographic characteristics and measures of stigmatizing views. Multivariate regressions revealed that compared to the rest of Indiana, residence in Fayette County was associated with a higher desire for social distance, perceptions of unpredictability, and attributing opioid dependency to genetics and the way the person was raised. ConclusionOur results contribute to growing evidence supporting the need for local approaches to address stigma. Stigma in Fayette County primarily reflects concerns about how people manage their opioid dependency. Strategies focusing on treatment and recovery potential, accompanied by extending the influence of supportive stakeholders and policies, will become important to address this stigma.

The role of childhood unpredictability in adult health.

This research differentiated childhood unpredictability (i.e., perceptions of uncertainty or instability due to turbulent environmental changes) from other related constructs to identify its role in adult health. Study 1 (N = 441) showed that, beyond other childhood adversity variables (poverty and adverse childhood experiences or ACEs) and demographic characteristics, perceptions of unpredictability were associated with greater functional disability and worse health-related quality of life (assessed via the CDC's HRQOL Healthy Days measure and the RAND SF-36). Study 2 (N = 564) replicated those findings in a more racially diverse sample and showed that associations with childhood unpredictability held while also controlling for the Big 5 personality traits. Findings suggest that effects of unpredictability were especially pronounced among Hispanic (in Study 1), and Black/African American and low-income participants (in Study 2). Experiencing childhood environments that are perceived to be uncertain, unstable, or uncontrollable may put children on a path toward poor health outcomes in adulthood. Findings advance theories of child adversity and health and identify childhood unpredictability as a potentially valuable target for intervention.

Perceptions of childhood unpredictability, delay discounting, risk-taking, and adult externalizing behaviors: A life-history approach.

Guided by principles from life-history theory, theories of adaptive calibration provide an overarching theoretical framework for understanding the developmental roots of impulsivity and externalizing psychopathology. The current research provides evidence for robust associations between perceptions of childhood unpredictability, delay discounting (Studies 1a and 1b), and adult externalizing traits and behaviors (Study 2). Both associations were observed while controlling for perceptions of the harshness of childhood environments, as well as a range of demographic characteristics. The association with externalizing traits and behavior was observed over and above current mood and depressive symptoms. Study 2 also replicated a previously documented association between changes in maternal employment, residence, and cohabitation during childhood and externalizing behavior and, furthermore, suggested that this association was mediated by perceptions of unpredictability. These studies provided no evidence for links between perceived childhood unpredictability and basic forms of risk-taking (Studies 1a and 1c). This research adds to a growing body of work leveraging principles from life-history theory to demonstrate links between childhood experiences, impulsivity, and potentially debilitating forms of mental illness. This work also highlights the value of assessing people's perceptions of their childhood environments.

How do policy evaluators understand complexity?

There is a well-documented interest in how insights from the study of complexity can be applied to policy evaluation. However, important questions remain as to how complexity is understood and used by policy evaluators. We present findings from semi-structured interviews with 30 UK policy evaluators working in food, energy, water and environment policy domains. We explore how they understand, use and approach complexity, and consider the implications for evaluation research and practice. Findings reveal understandings of complexity arising from contextual factors, scale-related issues and perceptions of unpredictability. The evidence indicates terminological and analogical use of complexity and its concepts by policy evaluators, but limited evidence of its literal use. Priorities for the future include framing complexity more pragmatically and as an opportunity not a cost. Communicating this up the policy hierarchy is the key to progressing complexity-appropriate evaluation – this can be enabled by strengthening links between policy evaluation and academic communities.

Taking Risks With Their Hearts: Risk And Emotion In Innovative Forms Of Assessment

Research involving student and tutor responses to a ‘pedagogy of the heart’ approach in a first year university health science topic revealed anxiety, insecurity and perceptions of unpredictability in relation to an innovative arts-based assignment designed to elicit and assess experiential or imaginal knowledge. Using the lens of contemporary theories of risk, and explicitly considering the role of emotion in assessment, this paper identifies both the effectiveness of and challenges encountered in this form of assessment. It also explores the relationships between risk and emotion, and between risk and assessment, particularly for young people in the higher education context. By comparing the risks involved with the benefits to be gained, the efficacy of adopting such a pedagogical approach is reviewed.

Taking Risks with Their Hearts: Risk and Emotion in Innovative Forms of Assessment.

Research involving student and tutor responses to a ‘pedagogy of the heart’ approach in a first year university health science topic revealed anxiety, insecurity and perceptions of unpredictability in relation to an innovative arts-based assignment designed to elicit and assess experiential or imaginal knowledge. Using the lens of contemporary theories of risk, and explicitly considering the role of emotion in assessment, this paper identifies both the effectiveness of and challenges encountered in this form of assessment. It also explores the relationships between risk and emotion, and between risk and assessment, particularly for young people in the higher education context. By comparing the risks involved with the benefits to be gained, the efficacy of adopting such a pedagogical approach is reviewed.

How Professionals Experience Complexity: An Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis

This paper reports on doctoral research carried out in the UK into the experience of complexity in child protection work. The study explored what complexity meant for practitioners, and examined its significance for interprofessional working. A qualitative, case‐based approach was adopted, drawing on the experiences of 17 practitioners working on two separate child protection cases. Participants were from a range of agencies, including children's social care, education, youth offending and child/adolescent mental health. Two rounds of semi‐structured interviews were carried out over a period of four months. Interview transcripts were analysed using interpretative phenomenological analysis, a research methodology derived from qualitative psychology. The findings revealed complexity to be a multifaceted phenomenon, driven by the dynamics of cause and effect in open social systems. Practitioners' perception of unpredictability and volatility in these cases fed into various aspects of collaborative work: the experience of relationships, the process of assessment, efforts at intervention and concerns about risk. The paper concludes by exploring some implications for policy and practice in terms of how interprofessional networks are set up to manage the needs of vulnerable children and families. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.‘A qualitative, case‐based approach was adopted’Key Practitioner Messages Complexity makes it hard for practitioners to understand cause and effect, predict outcomes and control the course of events. To manage complexity, the team around the child may need to operate as a strategic unit rather than a collection of tactical interventions. When complex cases become ‘stuck’, professional networks may need additional support and consultation from specialist agencies. ‘Complexity makes it hard for practitioners to understand cause and effect, predict outcomes and control the course of events’

Understanding animal fears: a comparison of the cognitive vulnerability and harm-looming models

BackgroundThe Cognitive Vulnerability Model holds that both clinical and sub-clinical manifestations of animal fears are a result of how an animal is perceived, and can be used to explain both individual differences in fear acquisition and the uneven distribution of fears in the population. This study looked at the association between fear of a number of animals and perceptions of the animals as uncontrollable, unpredictable, dangerous and disgusting. Also assessed were the perceived loomingness, prior familiarity, and negative evaluation of the animals as well as possible conditioning experiences.Methods162 first-year University students rated their fear and perceptions of four high-fear and four low-fear animals.ResultsPerceptions of the animals as dangerous, disgusting and uncontrollable were significantly associated with fear of both high- and low-fear animals while perceptions of unpredictability were significantly associated with fear of high-fear animals. Conditioning experiences were unrelated to fear of any animals. In multiple regression analyses, loomingness did not account for a significant amount of the variance in fear beyond that accounted for by the cognitive vulnerability variables. However, the vulnerability variables accounted for between 20% and 51% of the variance in all animals fears beyond that accounted for by perceptions of the animals as looming. Perceptions of dangerousness, uncontrollability and unpredictability were highly predictive of the uneven distribution of animal fears.ConclusionThis study provides support for the Cognitive Vulnerability Model of the etiology of specific fears and phobias and brings into question the utility of the harm-looming model in explaining animal fear.