Perception Of Drought Research Articles

Assessment of farmers’ resilience to drought and its influencing components: the case of Fars Province, Iran

ABSTRACT Drought is a complex socio-natural hazard that increases in magnitude with climate changes. Fars province, in the south of Iran, as one of the agricultural poles of Iran, has experienced severe droughts in recent years. Therefore, the present descriptive-correlational research was conducted aiming at assessing farmers’ resilience to drought within the province. Using a structured questionnaire, 420 farmers were surveyed following a multi-stage cluster random sampling method. Results of the research demonstrate that the farmers’ social resilience levels to drought are slightly higher than the average. Furthermore, three independent variables including adaptive capacity, job satisfaction, and learning capacity have the highest positive and significant correlations with social resilience. In addition, the results of multiple regression analysis showed that seven variables including adaptive capacity, perceived social support, learning capacity, social capital, coping capacity, job satisfaction, and drought perception had positive and statistically significant effects on the farmers’ resilience to drought. When considered together, these seven predicting variables account for about 41% of the variance of the dependent variable. In general, the results of this research can be useful in better understanding the social aspects of agricultural societies and increasing planners’ awareness concerning farmers’ resilience to climatic and environmental challenges.

Cocoa Farmers’ Perceptions of Drought and Adaptive Strategies in the Ghana–Togo Transboundary Cocoa Belt

This study investigated the perception of drought by cocoa farmers and explored the effectiveness of adaptive strategies (ASs) used in smallholding farms in the transboundary region between Ghana and Togo. Drought significantly threatens cocoa production in this region, affecting farmers’ livelihoods and cocoa supply chains. This study used a multistage sampling approach, which involved surveys with questionnaires administered to 330 cocoa farmers throughout the study area, along with on-site observations. Statistical analysis included binary logistic and Poisson regression models to explore the relationship between farmer socioeconomic characteristics and adaptation practices. The findings revealed that cocoa farmers in the region have a nuanced understanding of drought, attributed to changing climatic patterns and unsustainable land management practices such as deforestation. To mitigate its impacts, farmers employ a variety of ASs, including investment in farm management, soil management, and intercropping with crop diversification. Furthermore, socioeconomic factors, including age, formal education, household size, land tenure right, adaptation cost assessment, and an underestimation of self-efficacy, were shown to affect the choice in the AS. Among the ASs adopted, only farm management practices (weeding, pruning, fertilizer application, etc.) significantly improved yield. This study contributes to understanding drought as a critical issue for cocoa farmers and the adaptation practices used by smallholder cocoa farmers. Given that among the strategies adopted, only farm management practices, also known as good agricultural practices (GAPs), significantly improves yield, this study recommends well-designed and innovative packages of sustainable farm management based on farm and owner characteristics. These include irrigation schemes, timely soil fertilizer monitoring and supply, and the provision of drought-resistant varieties along with technical itineraries. Additional interventions require drought emergency responses, with other factors such as education and financial support mechanisms expected to improve farmers’ timely decision-making to adapt and improve cocoa production resilience to drought episodes in international transboundary regions with complex governance structures.

Comparing local people’s perceptions of climate change and drought with scientific observations in the lower Mekong Basin: a case study in Dak Lak province, Vietnam

Comparing local people’s perceptions of climate change and drought with scientific observations in the lower Mekong Basin: a case study in Dak Lak province, Vietnam

Constructing Ubudehe? Farmers’ perceptions of drought impacts and resilience capacities in Bugesera, Rwanda

Purpose This paper analyses Rwandan farmers’ perceptions of historical drivers of landscape vulnerability (past), current livelihood assets (present) and existing or potential capacities (future) to increase resilience to drought. The specific focus is on linking experiences from the past and present with ideas for a drought-resilient future. It explores how farmers' perceptions of past droughts and future visioning can contribute to rural development policy and multi-level collaborations. Design/methodology/approach This study was conducted in Bugesera, a drought-prone district in south-eastern Rwanda. Empirical data was collected through participatory observation, semi-structured interviews and focus groups. The analytical points of departure are based on sustainable landscapes and livelihood approaches, combining spatial and temporal perspectives on challenges and opportunities identified by farmers’ communities in addressing droughts. Findings All respondents had a high awareness of the impact of droughts. Perceived drivers of landscape change include historical climate events, such as droughts and floods, immigration and agricultural expansion, which have led to demographic pressure on land, deforestation and infringement on natural resources. Factors enhancing resilience capacities include access to diversified sources of livelihood, knowledge of appropriate irrigation techniques and availability of safety nets and credits. Furthermore, farmers identified collaborative opportunities as important for resilience capacity, including peer learning, and sharing best practices through knowledge exchange and on-field training. In addition, farmers brought up the need for innovative institutions that can facilitate access to markets and enable collaboration between different agricultural sectors. Originality/value This study analyses farmers’ perceptions of resilience capacities to droughts through a spatiotemporal lens of past droughts, present capital and future challenges by linking scales, knowledge and human–environment nexus. This paper contributes to the knowledge of climate adaptation in Rwanda and to discussions about smallholder farming in the literature on climate change adaptation.

Public Perception of Drought and Extreme Rainfall Impacts in a Changing Climate: Aconcagua Valley and Chañaral, Chile

Public Perception of Drought and Extreme Rainfall Impacts in a Changing Climate: Aconcagua Valley and Chañaral, Chile

Predictive Analysis of Adaptation to Drought of Farmers in the Central Zone of Colombia

Drought constitutes one of the natural phenomena that causes the greatest socio-economic, and environmental losses in both the short and long term worldwide. Each year, these events are related to the presence of “El Niño—Southern Oscillation” (ENSO), which occurs throughout Colombia and has serious consequences in the agricultural and food sectors, as well as in most of the country’s population. Farmers have adopted a number of strategies to mitigate the negative impact of droughts on food production. Certainly, when implementing future strategies, such strategies will be less effective if farmers’ insights on ENSO are not considered. Consequently, this study was carried out to analyze the variables that predict adaptation to droughts in the dry zones of the department of Tolima. Three questionnaires were designed: socioeconomic vulnerability (SVT), risk perception (SRPT) and drought adaptation (SAT). A non-probability sample of 538 farmers was surveyed. Socio-economic vulnerability and drought perception were found to be predictive of drought adaptation in the study sample, and older people were found to be resilient to adaptation. The results of this research provide empirical evidence to analyze and formulate public policies about the impact of droughts on the most vulnerable populations.

Orange grower's perception of drought impacts and strategies for mitigation and adaptation: A study of the Vidarbha region in India

Vidarbha, a region in Maharashtra, India, is famous for its sweet-sour-flavoured Nagpur Orange. Vidarbha is witnessing droughts after every alternate year resulting in crop failure and causing distress to orange growers. The present study attempts to – 1) identify critical challenges Vidarbha orange growers face during drought impact and 2) examine the farmers' perception and awareness about drought impacts, and different adaptation and mitigation strategies in practice at the farmer's level. This research used a field study approach in the drought-prone Vidarbha region to acquire orange farmers' perceptions of the drought impact. We have used a three-stage method to carry out this study. In the first stage, a Delphi method is adopted to identify and validate orange growers' challenges due to drought impact. The second stage comprises utilising multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM)-based best-worst method to prioritise and determine the most critical challenges. This is followed by descriptive statistical analysis in the third stage to determine the overall perception of orange growers about drought and its adaptation and mitigation strategies. It is observed through findings that – “inadequate water bodies, lack of availability of capital, and high cost of drip irrigation” are critical challenges orange growers witness during drought. While “installing an efficient irrigation system and pest control” are the adaptation strategies, and “seeking guidance from the agriculture department” and “reliance on weather forecast” are the mitigation strategies widely adopted by Nagpur orange growers to alleviate drought stress.

Rural Household Perception of Drought Occurrence and Its Influence on Livelihood Strategy in Northeast Ethiopia

Globally, drought is occurring more frequently today, which is considerably affecting rural households’ agricultural productivity and socioeconomic development. Understanding households’ perceptions of drought is thus important for resilience‐building work because people act based on their views, and the resilience of people is tied to their views, knowledge, culture, and attitudes. This study analyses the rural households’ perceptions of drought occurrence and its influence on livelihood strategies in northeast Ethiopia. This was achieved through a mixed‐methods approach with a concurrent research design. The quantitative data were collected from 354 randomly selected household heads, whereas the qualitative data were collected from purposefully selected household head focus group discussions (FGDs) and key informants. The quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, whereas the qualitative data were analyzed using thematic data analysis techniques. The results show that climate variability and drought occurrence were perceived by the households as decreasing rainfall, increasing temperature, variations in rainfall onset and cessation, variations in heat waves and cold waves, heavy rainfall events, changes in sporadic rain, a lesser coverage of clouds, and adverse weather events. Within the last 25 years, households have perceived the number of extreme, severe, or moderate droughts to be increasing. Household perceptions of temperature changes match meteorological records, but their perceptions of rainfall changes do not. The drought hampered income sources, brought food shortages, and threatened family well‐being. It increased water stress, livestock morbidity and mortality, insect invasions, fire outbreaks, grazing resource depletion, abnormal migration, school dropout rates, and human health problems. The findings have important policy implications to mitigate drought risk, enhance drought adaptation, and develop pathways out of drought vulnerability, so it is worthwhile to harmonize the household perceptions with climate change policy.

Usage of Agroecological Climate-Smart Agriculture Practices among Sorghum and Maize Smallholder Farmers in Semi-Arid Areas in Tanzania

Climate change variability and its impact on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa pose a significant challenge to food security. In Tanzania's semi-arid regions, there is growing concern regarding the use of agroecological Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) practices by smallholder farmers that adhere to agroecological principles. This study aimed to investigate the use of agroecological CSA practices among smallholder farmers in Tanzania's semi-arid regions, specifically in Dodoma and Tabora regions. In addition, this study sought to identify the key factors influencing the use of these practices to enhance food security, income, and climate resilience. Data were collected from 299 households in Dodoma and Tabora using various methods including questionnaire surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. Binary logistic regression was used to analyse factors influencing the usage of agroecological climate-smart agriculture practices. The findings revealed that most households in the study area use agroecological CSA practices. These practices include cereal-legume intercropping, mixed cropping, crop residue retention, crop rotation, and improved seed variety. Water harvesting, terraces, and cover crops were not used by many households. Several factors positively influenced the use of agroecological CSA. They include assistance from non-governmental organizations (NGOs), training in CSA practices, drought perception, access to credit, distance to market, membership in an organisation, education level of the household head, and total household income. To promote the use of agroecological CSA practices, both governments and NGOs should prioritise training programs. Moreover, providing frequent extension services and facilitating easier access to credit for farmers can further support the widespread use of these practices. In doing so, local communities can adapt better to the challenges of climate change, ensuring improved food security and climate resilience in the region

Understanding farmers’ perception of extreme weather events and adaptive measures

Extreme weather events have cost lives and financial losses across the United States. Moreover, they are expected to increase in frequency, and this will exacerbate their impact on vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. But how farmers could adapt to extreme weather events by adopting different conservation practices has received slight attention in the literature. This study examines how farmers' perceptions of drought and flooding influence their decisions to implement conservation practices in their conventional crop fields. Out of the 350 farmer responses we received, fewer than half indicated a likelihood to adopt no-tillage/reduced tillage (43%), cover crops (40%), crop diversification (37%), and integrated crop-livestock grazing (29%). Using this data and a multivariate probit modeling framework, we show that farmers’ decisions can be partly explained by their perception of drought but not by their perception of flooding. Specifically, the perceived number of drought years significantly increases the likelihood of adopting no-tillage/reduced tillage and diversified cropping in the future. However, the number of drought years is not significantly associated with the use of cover crops and integrated crop-livestock grazing. These results suggest that the effects of extreme weather events on adoption of conservation practices as adaptive measures vary across different practices. Therefore, adaptation policies that make use of conservation practices must be tailored to farmers’ needs and priorities to be effective.

The role of smartphone-based weather information acquisition on climate change perception accuracy: Cross-country evidence from Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Uzbekistan

Individual perception about climate risks is critical for adopting mitigation and adaptation measures, yet international experience shows that individual perception might fundamentally deviate from objective changes. So far, little attention has been paid in the literature to understanding the role of ICTs in improving the accuracy of farmers' perceptions of actual drought occurrence. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap by analyzing the discrepancy between farmers' subjective perceptions and actual drought occurrence. Furthermore, the study investigates the role of smartphone-based weather information on accurate perception of drought.Subjective drought assessment was obtained by a cross-sectional dataset of 2830 farm-level observations collected in Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Uzbekistan in 2021. For measuring objective meteorological drought occurrence, this study employs a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on satellite imagery. The role of smartphone-based weather information acquisition on drought perception accuracy was measured by Propensity score matching. The comparison of objective and subjective assessment showed that 67 percent of farmers in Kyrgyzstan, 32 percent in Mongolia and 46 percent in Uzbekistan perceived meteorological drought inaccurately. The PSM estimates indicate that smartphone-based weather information acquisition significantly influences accurate meteorological drought perception. With these results, we advocate for higher attention to improving internet speed in rural areas and providing online weather information also to farmers with low digital literacy and low incomes.

Multi-stakeholder perceptions of drought utilizing a conceptual framework for drought

ABSTRACT Drought is a phenomenon that leads to complex issues that affect vulnerable communities across the globe. Small-scale farmers and rural communities are considered the most vulnerable to the impacts of drought, due to their high reliance on agriculture and the numerous socio-economic conditions that sustain their vulnerability. Understanding the perceptions of those that are the most vulnerable to drought as well as the relevant stakeholders that are involved in drought management is important to gain a holistic understanding of the impacts of droughts and how they affect individuals from various socio-economic backgrounds. The objective of this research study was to assess the perceptions of droughts from a Multi-stakeholder perspective. This was achieved by assessing a range of stakeholder perceptions utilizing a conceptual framework for drought perception which is built on the elements that shape perceptions of drought which are, experience, memory, definitions and expectations. The study utilized a qualitative research approach incorporating focus group discussions, interviews and participatory research techniques. The results of the research study revealed that drought is a relative concept and is experienced differently by individuals from different socio-economic backgrounds. This also influenced the way respondents adapted to the impacts of droughts.

Past experience of drought, drought risk perception, and climate mitigation and adaptation decisions by farmers in New Zealand

ABSTRACT We analyze the perception of farmers in New Zealand with regards to future drought risk as shaped by climatic change and the implications of these perceptions for climate mitigation and adaptation actions that these farmers choose to pursue. The policy options examined include reducing greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening climate resilience, and using water resources more efficiently. Almost all farmers in New Zealand expect an increase in drought frequency and intensity by 2050. We also find that age, gender, and education are correlated with future drought risk perceptions by farmers. Female farmers and farmers with higher education are more concerned about future droughts. Importantly, drought perception of farmers is associated with their climate-related mitigation and adaptation preferences. If farmers perceive an increase in drought risk by 2050, they will focus more on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing the climate resilience of their farms, and trying to improve their use of water resources. Understanding how drought risk perceptions are shaped, and specifically their role in determining mitigation and adaptation decisions, may shed some useful light that can improve policy responses to the risks of droughts and climate change more broadly.

Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management

Abstract. Drought events and their impacts vary spatially and temporally due to diverse pedo-climatic and hydrologic conditions, as well as variations in exposure and vulnerability, such as demographics and response actions. While hazard severity and frequency of past drought events have been studied in detail, little is known about the effect of drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how the hazard is perceived by relevant stakeholders. In a continental study, we characterised and assessed the impacts and the perceptions of two recent drought events (2018 and 2019) in Europe and examined the relationship between management strategies and drought perception, hazard, and impact. The study was based on a pan-European survey involving national representatives from 28 countries and relevant stakeholders responding to a standard questionnaire. The survey focused on collecting information on stakeholders' perceptions of drought, impacts on water resources and beyond, water availability, and current drought management strategies on national and regional scales. The survey results were compared with the actual drought hazard information registered by the European Drought Observatory (EDO) for 2018 and 2019. The results highlighted high diversity in drought perception across different countries and in values of the implemented drought management strategies to alleviate impacts by increasing national and sub-national awareness and resilience. The study identifies an urgent need to further reduce drought impacts by constructing and implementing a European macro-level drought governance approach, such as a directive, which would strengthen national drought management and mitigate damage to human and natural assets.

Priority of Water Allocation during Drought Periods: The Case of Jaguaribe Metropolitan Inter-Basin Water Transfer in Semiarid Brazil

Inter-basin water transfers are the root of many conflicts, and water scarcity accentuates them. Those conflicts involve the priority of water use between regions. The Jaguaribe Metropolitan system, located in the Brazilian semiarid region, presents conflicts amongst different water users: irrigated perimeters, industry, and households. This paper analyzed the Jaguaribe Metropolitan water transfer during the 2012–2018 drought by considering environmental and societal aspects. Changes in consumption and users’ drought perception were assessed. The results showed that the drought was longer and more severe in the region that provided water (i.e., Jaguaribe) than in the region that received it (i.e., FMR). Jaguaribe irrigators were aware of the beginning of the drought, but it did not result in immediate consumption control. On the other hand, drought perception was delayed in the FMR. The results of this study suggested that the water allocation decision-making process should include not only the water demands but also the characteristics of the drought and how people perceive it. The main strategy for improving water governance seems to be promoting integrated regional planning and the empowerment of participatory management.

Insights from the 2018 Drought in Ireland’s Broadsheet Media

ABSTRACT Public perception of drought is an important factor in sustainable water use. Heightened media coverage of drought events is shown to reduce public water consumption. This research examined Ireland's 2018 summer drought to identify how drought was framed in three broadsheet newspapers through a media content analysis over 19 weeks. Ireland provided a novel case study due to its rainy climate and lack of drought management strategies. Since the 1970s, few hydrological droughts occurred in Ireland, but forecasts indicate the country is likely to experience greater precipitation deficits in summer. In Ireland, as elsewhere, greater understanding of behavioural change and water conservation communication is needed given projected trends for increased frequency and severity of drought events. This research explored water conservation communication in the media to support better public response to future droughts in Ireland and elsewhere. Results demonstrated delayed media coverage of the drought and insufficient advice may have hampered public water conservation efforts. In addition, the role of climate change in exacerbating drought was under and misrepresented, potentially discouraging mitigative behaviours and acceptance of climate and water management policies. Earlier coverage of impending droughts with relevant advice could improve public efforts in water conservation and drought adaptation.

Public awareness and perceptions of drought: A case study of two cities of Alabama

AbstractDrought poses serious risks to society. There is, however, a lack of timely public awareness and sufficient public risk perceptions of this hazard due to its gradual onset. Timely and adequate public response is conducive to effective mitigation. It is imperative to understand how the public responds to drought. Using data from multiple sources, situated in two cities (Mobile and Huntsville) of Alabama, our study represents a comprehensive effort to understand public awareness and perceptions of drought. We have made several important findings. First, both physical and social contexts can influence public awareness of drought. Mobile is prone to a variety of coastal hazards and displays high social vulnerability. Residents in this city are thus more sensitive to environmental shocks, especially less frequent ones such as drought. Second, public awareness of drought is not constrained within the immediate drought impact area. Governmental declaration or regulation can bring the issue of drought from one area to the attention of the other area within one state. Third, public perceptions of drought numbers are negatively correlated with perceptions of precipitation but positively associated with perceptions of extreme heat. This finding reflects that the public perception of drought is in line with scientific understanding of drought. Drought is by definition persistent deficit of precipitation. Flash droughts can be triggered by heat waves which are more likely to occur during a drought. We end this study with recommendations for future studies.

Drought perception and field-level adaptation strategies of farming households in drought-prone areas of Afghanistan

Droughts affect more people than any other natural hazard and Afghanistan is the hotbed of droughts with millions of lives affected annually. Therefore, this research was carried out to assess farmers' perceptions of climate change and droughts, drought severity, impact of droughts on crop productivity, and farmers' adaptation strategies to buffer the effect of drought using primary data collected through farmer survey, and climate change analysis using the secondary data. Finally, farmers' perceptions of climate and drought were compared with meteorological data using data from both primary and secondary sources. The primary data were gathered using a pretested and structured questionnaire from 120 sampled farmers in the rainfed and irrigated areas of Bamyan Province of Afghanistan. The secondary data regarding climatic variables were used for climate change analysis. The study findings revealed farmers’ perceptions of an increase in average temperature and a decline in average precipitation during 1998–2017, which was corroborated by climate change analysis using actual meteorological data. The perceptual drought severity also matched closely with climate data, though the rainfed area experienced a significantly higher drought frequency and severity compared with the irrigated area. The findings disclosed a significantly lower drought-induced crop productivity in both areas, though the decline was substantially higher in the rainfed area. The drought adaptation strategies included various on-farm and off-farm strategies, which differed significantly in the rainfed and irrigated areas. The on-farm adaptations encompassed early sowing, crop diversification, sowing of drought-tolerant varieties, and leaving fallow land. The off-farm strategies included handicrafts, wage labor, migration, and income diversification. The differences found in adaptation strategies across physical environments highlight the necessity of localized adaption strategies. This study provides evidence-based policy inputs for drought mitigation management in Afghanistan.

Assessing factors affecting drought, earthquake, and flood risk perception: empirical evidence from Bangladesh

Understanding household disaster risk perception is crucial to formulate and apply disaster risk reduction strategies. Using survey data from 300 households from three highly disaster-prone areas of the lower Teesta River basin in Bangladesh, this study explores households’ risk perception of drought, earthquake, and flood at the local level. The ordered probit regression model was applied to identify the factors influencing household disaster risk perception. Most of the respondents perceived the likelihood of occurring drought, earthquake, and flood hazards on a large scale in the selected areas which cause negative impacts on their quality of life and financial losses. They have lack knowledge on mitigation actions which makes them unable to control the devastating impacts of disasters. Econometric results show that households’ age, gender, education, and income-generating sources had significantly influenced the respondent’s drought, earthquake, and flood risk perception. Female participants have less knowledge on mitigations actions and are less capable of controlling the hazards than their counterparts making them more vulnerable to the impacts of hazards. Urgent action is required to improve their socio-economic conditions, and to reduce the knowledge gap between males and females as well as to improve the household’s understanding of mitigation and preparedness for disaster risk.

Determinants of crop choice decisions under risk: A case study on the revival of cocoa farming in the Forest-Savannah transition zone of Ghana

The revival of cocoa farming in the Forest-Savannah Transition Zone (FSTZ) of Ghana despite high production risk raises questions on the factors underlying it, and whether the renewed interest in cocoa can be sustained. This paper examines the reasons that underlie households’ decision to farm cocoa or otherwise in the FSTZ, and how risk perceptions, demographic factors and livelihood assets predict such crop choice decisions. Methods of data collection include household surveys and key informant interviews. Four hundred and eight household heads and 32 key informants were interviewed in 12 farming communities. Findings indicate divergent crop choice decisions on cocoa among farming households. While market security generally created a strong incentive for cocoa farming, some households exhibited risk aversion by avoiding or abandoning cocoa farming. The decision to farm cocoa was negatively predicted by perceptions of drought and lack of money as the most severe risk factors of cocoa farming, the sex of the household head (being a female) and lack of land ownership and social network with cocoa farmers. Currently, it appears the renewed interest in cocoa farming can be sustained, especially considering market uncertainties for alternative crops (cashew and food crops). This may, however, not be the case in the long term. More households are likely to avoid or abandon cocoa farming if climate and food security risks should worsen as projected, and more so if the cashew market is stabilised by government. Cocoa investment programmes in the FSTZ aiming at long-term sustainability ought to target households that are more likely to farm cocoa under high production risk. Such programmes may also attract new farmers and sustain their interest in cocoa farming by enhancing their access to land, capital, and irrigation facilities (for managing drought). At the moment, crop diversification (towards cashew and food crops) rather than crop switching is needed to manage the climate, market and food security risks confronting farmers. Overall, the paper contributes to a better understanding of the determinants of farmers’ crop choice decisions on cocoa in the context of multiple risks.