Percentage Of Consistency Research Articles

Climate Change Resilience and Sustainable Tropical Agriculture: Farmers’ Perceptions, Reactive Adaptations and Determinants of Reactive Adaptations in Hainan, China

The adversities of a changing climate in developing countries and the related impact on agriculture are directly dependent on the adaptive behavior of local farmers towards climate change events. The perception of farmers as basic executers of agricultural production plays a crucial role in their adaptation decisions. Through a field survey of 200 farmers in Hainan, China, this study covers the methodological gap in determining the reactive adaptations for coping with the changing climate and the underlying factors of farmers’ adaptive behavior. The results indicated that the smallholder farmers are well aware of climate change, and the majority of them are taking adaptive measures such as following up on weather forecast, changing crop varieties, conserving agriculture through soil conservation and/or agroforestry, modifying different farm operations, increasing investment in infrastructure, increasing non-agricultural income of household, switching to new genetically modified cultivars, and engaging in water conservation methods. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to study the determinants of farmers’ adaptive behavior, and the results highlighted 10 significant factors affecting farmers’ adaptations, including the age and gender of the farmer, non-agricultural income, training, credit access, policy demand, and perceived changes in climate change events. Our results are in line with the extant literature. The percentage of consistency (POC) was also calculated to evaluate the BLR results, and the overall POC was 60.7%. On the policy front, several suggestions are made based on derived conclusions, such as arranging training programs as a supplement to policymaking, incorporating significant factors for the development of high protection capacity, accounting for gender differences, and supporting crop insurance via subsidies.

Local farmer’s perception and adaptive behavior toward climate change

Agriculture is greatly influenced by climate change, especially in developing countries. Farmers are both the basic executors of agricultural adaptation and among the most vulnerable groups to climate change. However, the understanding on climate change perception and adaptive behavior of local farmers is still very limited. This study develops a binary logistic regression (BLR) model to explore the underlying principles of local farmer’s perception and adaptive behavior toward climate change, with a focus on influential farmers. Through a field survey with 117 head farmers from 89 farmers’ cooperatives in Chongming Island of China - the largest alluvial island in the world, we found that: 1) 92% of the respondents thought climate change is happening; 59% of the respondents thought climate change has an obvious impact on agriculture production; and 45% of the respondents had a plan for future adaptation. 2) Based on BLR analysis, it was found that 3 out of 16 factors have significant impacts on head farmer’s adaptive behavior toward climate change, including agricultural training, perceived temperature change, and education level. 3) The percentage of consistency (POC) is proposed to describe the performance of our BLR model. The overall POC of BLR model is 68.4%, with a higher POC (85.7%) for farmers who have no adaptive behavior. 4) Key measures to enhance local climate adaptation include an integrated and coordinated plan of farmer-level adaptation, tailored and specialized training programs, improvement of scientific research, and publicity of best practices.