Percent Threshold Research Articles

The Long Decline of South Africa's ANC

ABSTRACT: Three decades after the African National Congress (ANC) won 62.7 percent of the vote that propelled Nelson Mandela into the presidency in 1994, the ANC's vote share plummeted to 40.2 percent of the national vote in South Africa's 2024 general election (down from 57.5 percent five years previously,= and well below the 50 percent predicted by preelection polls). Against thirty years of pessimistic academic literature predicting the opposite, the ANC accepted electoral defeat. But this left the ANC in a strategic quandary. Had it reached the upper 40 percent range, easy coalitions with small parties would have passed the 50 percent threshold. But with only 40 percent, the party reached back into the early years of democracy and formed a government of national unity—a multiparty coalition that left the ANC's most significant political opponents out in the cold. ANC (and national) president Cyril Ramaphosa has sidelined Africanist parties and created a coalition with decidedly centrist parties. The "broad church" which has bedeviled the ANC is at an end. Multiparty coalition government has arrived in South Africa, but questions remain: Can ANC electoral decline be arrested by this sharp move towards the center? And what, if any, substantive role is there for the ANC in the future if not?

Evaluation of hemoglobin S percent threshold to prevent severe pain events: a secondary analysis of the SIT trial

Evaluation of hemoglobin S percent threshold to prevent severe pain events: a secondary analysis of the SIT trial

DEVELOPMENT OF A LESSON ON PRISMS AND CYLINDERS USING THE CPA APPROACH WITH GEOGEBRA TO ENHANCE LEARNING ACHIEVEMENT FOR GRADE 8 STUDENTS

This research uses a learning management process based on Concrete-Pictorial-Abstract (CPA) approach with GeoGebra on prisms and cylinders. This pattern of learning management can help students interested in learning, supporting interaction, and having fun in the classroom because they are involved in learning from learning media that can be seen as concrete, thus stimulating learning very well. The sample group used in the research included 24 students of Grade 8, semester 1, and academic year 2023 at Huaiphung Pittaya School, which was obtained by simple random sampling using the classroom as the random unit. The tools used in this research were learning management plans, the achievement test, and a satisfaction questionnaire. Statistics used in the research include mean, standard deviation, percentage, and hypothesis testing using statistics (t-test). The results of the research found that: 1) the learning achievement on prisms and cylinders of grade 8 students after studying using the learning management process based on CPA approach with GeoGebra was higher than the 70 percent threshold with statistical significance at the .05. 2) The learning achievement on prisms and cylinders of grade 8 students after studying using the learning management process based on CPA approach with GeoGebra was significantly higher than before studying at the.05. 3) Students who received learning on prism and cylinder using the learning management process based on CPA approach with GeoGebra had a high level of satisfaction ( x̄= 4.13, SD = 0.70).

Comparative analysis of HEC-HMS and SWAT hydrological models for simulating the streamflow in sub-humid tropical region in India.

Assessment of water availability in sub-humid regions is important due to distinct climatic and environmental conditions. In this study, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) models have been assessed in simulating streamflows in the sub-humid tropical Kabini basin in Kerala, India, spanning 1260 km2. Calibration and validation utilized daily weather data from 1997 to 2015 from the Muthankera gauging station. The study investigated the impact of routing methods on runoff simulation in the ArcSWAT, exploring Muskingum and Variable Storage methods. Evaluation metrics encompassed Nash-Sutcliffe Efïciency (NSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2), Percent bias (PBIAS), RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR), and Peak Percent Threshold Statistics (PPTS) approach for high-flow values. The result indicates that HEC-HMS outperforms SWAT concerning R2 and NSE values during daily calibration and validation. Monthly simulations showed HEC-HMS closely aligning with SWAT (Variable storage), outperforming SWAT (Muskingum). The PPTS approach proved effective in simulating high-flow values. Both models exhibited proficiency in streamflow analysis within the study area, promising predictive potential for future hydrological studies in sub-humid regions.

Does the strength of women in the upper echelon influence earnings quality? The application of critical mass theory

Globally, several financial scandals were witnessed within the first decade of the 21st century that necessitated a robust corporate governance mechanism to improve financial reporting quality. Empirical evidence shows that men dominate the boards involved in these scandals. In an attempt to restore the confidence of stakeholders in the financial report, financial regulatory authorities in European Union economies recommend a well-constituted gender-diverse board where the marginalised gender is at least 40 percent of the board. However, in Nigeria, there is little research on women's participation in corporate board decisions taken into cognizance of critical mass theory. Thus, the study investigates how the critical mass of female representation on the corporate board and audit committee affects earnings quality. The study employs a longitudinal design by collecting secondary data on eleven deposit money banks from 2011-2022. The study uses data collected after testing endogeneity problems using Hausman's test. The results show that females on the board and audit committee significantly affect the quality of earnings when reaching the critical mass threshold. The study provides policy implications for supporting more significant involvement of women in board and audit committees based on business cases rather than social justice. Hence, this study proposes a mandatory thirty percent threshold compliance for board gender diversity, which the Central Bank of Nigeria voluntarily recommended.

Review: Initial increase in pregnancy-specific protein B in maternal circulation after artificial insemination is a key indicator of embryonic survival in dairy cows.

Lactating dairy cows have reduced chances for pregnancy survival following 1st parturition. It appears that timing of conceptus attachment, defined as an initial daily rise in pregnancy-specific protein B (PSPB) postartificial insemination (AI), is key to the survival of the embryo. PSPB is a protein produced from binucleate cells of the trophectoderm of the conceptus. Once the conceptus has attached to the uterine epithelial cells, this large protein is detectable in maternal circulation. Daily sampling of serum allows for detection of the initial increase of PSPB. A percent increase threshold for PSPB was determined from results from each study using a conservative three-day minimum increase. Thus far, a 10 or 12.5% daily increase for three consecutive days had the greatest sensitivities and specificities for studies reported in this review. Nulliparous heifers receiving AI following estrus appear to have a reduced time to conceptus attachment compared to lactating cows that received either Ovsynch or AI following estrus. Increasing progesterone post-AI did not reduce time to conceptus attachment in lactating cows. Multiparous cows treated post-AI with human chorionic gonadotropin had a reduced percent with conceptus attachment in addition to greater time to conceptus attachment. Increased time to conceptus attachment increased the chances of multiparous cows having embryonic death before 35 d post-AI. Concentrations of PSPB are consistently reduced from conceptus attachment until d 28 post-AI in cows with pregnancy loss compared to cows that maintain pregnancy on d 34 post-AI. This novel model to determine timing of conceptus attachment provides a new perspective on percent of cows pregnant around d 20-23 post-AI and the potential for a greater understanding of subsequent pregnancy loss.

Is COVID-19 Herd Immunity Influenced by Population Densities of Cities?

The objective of the current study is to compare between densely and sparsely populated cities in the context of herd immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The sample refers to 46 (45) densely populated (sparsely populated) Israeli cities and towns, whose population density is below (above) the median of 2388 personssq.km, covering above 64.3% of the entire Israeli population. Findings suggest, on the one hand, a higher projected scope of morbidity per 10,000 persons in sparsely populated cities with zero prevalence of vaccination (37.79 vs. 17.61 cases per 10,000 persons). On the other hand, the outcomes propose a steeper drop in the scope of COVID-19 morbidity with higher vaccination rates in sparsely populated cities. Findings suggest that in terms of vaccination campaigns, below 60–70 percent vaccination rates, more efforts should be invested in sparsely populated cities. If, however, the 70 percent threshold is achieved, a further reduction in the scope of morbidity would require a higher (lower) rate of vaccination in densely populated (sparsely populated) cities.

Listening Over Time: Single-Trial Tonic and Phasic Oscillatory Alpha-and Theta-Band Indicators of Listening-Related Fatigue.

ObjectivesListening effort engages cognitive resources to support speech understanding in adverse listening conditions, and leads to fatigue over the longer term for people with hearing loss. Direct, neural measures of listening-related fatigue have not been developed. Here, event-related or phasic changes in alpha and theta oscillatory power during listening were used as measures of listening effort, and longer-term or tonic changes over the course of the listening task were assessed as measures of listening-related fatigue. In addition, influences of self-reported fatigue and degree of hearing loss on tonic changes in oscillatory power were examined.DesignParticipants were middle-aged adults (age 37–65 years; n = 12) with age-appropriate hearing. Sentences were presented in a background of multi-talker babble at a range of signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) varying around the 80 percent threshold of individual listeners. Single-trial oscillatory power during both sentence and baseline intervals was analyzed with linear mixed-effect models that included as predictors trial number, SNR, subjective fatigue, and hearing loss.ResultsAlpha and theta power in both sentence presentation and baseline intervals increased as a function of trial, indicating listening-related fatigue. Further, tonic power increases across trials were affected by hearing loss and/or subjective fatigue, particularly in the alpha-band. Phasic changes in alpha and theta power generally tracked with SNR, with decreased alpha power and increased theta power at less favorable SNRs. However, for the alpha-band, the linear effect of SNR emerged only at later trials.ConclusionTonic increases in oscillatory power in alpha- and theta-bands over the course of a listening task may be biomarkers for the development of listening-related fatigue. In addition, alpha-band power as an index of listening-related fatigue may be sensitive to individual differences attributable to level of hearing loss and the subjective experience of listening-related fatigue. Finally, phasic effects of SNR on alpha power emerged only after a period of listening, suggesting that this measure of listening effort could depend on the development of listening-related fatigue.

The 2021 Norwegian election

The Storting election of September 2021 signalled the end of eight years in office for of the centre-right government led by Premier Erna Solberg. During this period, different constellations of parties had been in power: first the Conservatives and the Progress Party, later the Liberal Party and finally the Christian Democrats joined the coalition. However, due to policy disagreements, particularly with the Liberals and the Christian Democrats, the Progress Party left the coalition in 2020, just a year ahead of the election. Climate and immigration policies were at the core of the disagreements. At the 2021 election, the five centre-left (or red-green) parties won the majority of seats and votes, but did not succeed in establishing a majority government. Instead, the Labour Party and the Centre Party formed a minority government, supported by the Socialist Left Party. The overriding issue at the election was climate and environmental concerns. Somewhat unexpectedly, the Green Party did not fare particularly well at the election, and fell short of the four percent threshold for adjustment seats by the tiniest margin. Data from the Norwegian National Election Study shows that the Greens only received 11 per cent of the climate vote, while more than 60 per cent voted for other red-green parties. Social inequality was also high on the agenda, in particular by left of centre voters. The number of effective parties rose from 5.5 to 6.4, increasing the fractionalisation of the party system, which may be worrying if it continues.

Covid-19 Pandemic and Optimal Debt-to-GDP Ratio Threshold in Sub-Saharan Africa

The empirical data on the effect of a high debt-to-GDP ratio on economic growth is conflicting. The article used the GDP Indicator to investigate the trajectory in the debt-to-GDP ratio in 45 nations in Sub-Saharan Africa during the COVID-19 Pandemic and to determine whether there is a point at which public debt becomes damaging to the region's economy. The major results demonstrated that as long as the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa continue to expand, a high debt-to-GDP ratio is not always negative; in fact, the majority of nations with a debt-to-GDP ratio greater than the 77 percent threshold had increased economic growth. Additionally, the paper discovered that countries in the region may face a high debt-to-GDP ratio as a result of excessive spending prompted by the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as an unpredictable slowdown in economic activity as a result of movement restriction policies imposed by subregional governments. Another intriguing conclusion is that Sub-Saharan Africa's average debt-to-GDP ratio of 56.6 percent in 2020 is much lower than the suggested limit of 77 percent. However, the report advised that governments reduce wasteful spending without jeopardizing the region's economic development rate. Finally, fiscal policies should be accompanied by monetary policies to promote effective public investment, simplified tax expenditures, increased public financial management, and better debt management and transparency.

DO ISLAMIC BANKS IN INDONESIA TAKE EXCESSIVE RISK IN THEIR FINANCING ACTIVITIES?

This study analyzes the risk-taking behavior of Indonesian Islamic Banks by examining whether the relation between financing Growth rate and non-performing financing (NPF). We employ threshold regression models and bank-level data of 24 Islamic banks (full-fledged Islamic banks and Islamic banking windows) covering the period from 2009 to 2019. We find evidence for the excessive risk-taking of Islamic Banks. More specifically, while the relation between NPF and FGR is negative when the one-lagged NPF is below the threshold (estimated to be 5.42%), it turns positive once it is above the threshold. This means that banks with NPF above the 5.42 percent threshold tend to take risky loans.

The Application of Simple Multiparty Concept to Maintain Political Stability in Carrying Presidential Candidates in the 2024 Election

The 2019 election imposes a fairly high threshold for political parties to be able to nominate presidential candidates. PDIP as the party with the largest vote does not want to reduce the 20 percent threshold as a form of commitment to maintain political stability so that there is no political commotion and minimize the presence of incompetent candidates. This figure makes other parties to form a coalition that is divided into two presidential candidates. Although it appears that there is a multi-party simplification in accordance with the presidential system, the determination of the threshold is not in accordance with Article 6A paragraph (3) of the third Amendment of the 1945 Constitution. The purpose of this study is to review the application of a simple multiparty concept in maintaining political stability and to review the challenges of implementing a simple multiparty in carrying presidential candidates to meet the 2024 election. The method used in this study is a legal approach and a case approach with data collection through literature studies. The results of this study indicate that the implementation of a simple multiparty in the upcoming 2024 election is pursued by a presidential threshold of 0 percent, so that each political party can nominate a presidential candidate either alone or in a coalition, meaning that there is no simple multiparty. On the other hand, if the presidential threshold is set to 0 percent, the consolidation of democracy and political stability will be very noisy and require expensive costs for the implementation of the 2024 election contestation

Standardization in the Diagnosis of Mixed Phenotype Acute Leukemia (MPAL): Semiquantitative, Universally Applicable Flow Cytometric Criteria for Immunophenotypic Lineage Assignment and Isolated MPO

Mixed phenotype acute leukemia (MPAL) is a rare group of acute leukemias defined by immunophenotypic expression of more than one hematopoietic cell lineage. The World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic immunophenotypic criteria for MPAL rely on the intensity of lineage-defining antigen expression, predominantly a qualitative assessment, and are often difficult to apply to a phenotypically heterogeneous leukemia. Cases of MPAL defined by isolated myeloperoxidase (isoMPO) expression on otherwise typical acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) are variably diagnosed as MPAL or ALL based on the incompletely defined criteria for assigning MPO expression. We hypothesized that quantitative criteria for antigen intensity could be developed and applied in a uniform manner across flow cytometry instruments, reagents, and analysis software to enable a consistent approach to diagnosing MPAL and better defining isoMPO.We previously reported on a multicenter cohort identified by respective institutions as MPAL with subsequent central review according to 2008 WHO criteria (Oberley et al 2020). Of these, 100 had suitable dot plots for reevaluation (89: B/Myeloid, 10: T/Myeloid, 1: B/T). Antigen expression was concurrently reviewed by two hematopathologists to reach consensus (BLW, AEK). The cohort was divided a priori into randomly selected training and testing cases (n=30/n=70). Classification criteria were generated in the training cohort for WHO lineage-defining antigen expression (myeloid: cMPO, CD64, CD14; B: CD19, T: cCD3) from 10 cases and then refined through review of an additional 20 cases. Positive antigen expression was classified as maximal intensity approaching that of the mature normal counterpart population (NCP) (cMPO: neutrophils; CD64, CD14 and CD11c: monocytes; CD19: B cells; cCD3: T cells) either by 1) range of expression recapitulating maturation of the NCP, irrespective of the percentage on the leukemic population (Figure 1A); or 2) uniform expression above background on a discrete (sub)population (Figure 1B). To account for technical variation within and among laboratories, maximal antigen intensity on the leukemic population was measured in 0.5 log increments and normalized to the maximal intensity of the NCP. An intensity of ≥50% of the NCP above background was defined as sufficient for MPAL lineage assignment and <50% consistent with isoMPO. This approach was then used to classify the remaining 70 cases.Using this approach, 41/98 (42%) cases previously classified as MPAL remained classified as MPAL: 31 as B/Myeloid (25 by maturational MPO expression, 6 by maturational CD64 and/or CD14 expression); 9 as T/Myeloid (8 by maturational MPO expression, 1 with maturational CD64, CD14 and CD11c expression); and 1 as B/T. No cases in the cohort showed uniform expression ≥50% of the NCP. The remaining 57 showed isolated low-level MPO expression (maximal intensity <50% of the NPC) on a uniform leukemic population or on a dichotomous subpopulation (isoMPO), 56 B/Myeloid and 1 T/Myeloid. Two cases of otherwise typical B-ALL without myeloid or monocytic antigen expression were reclassified as B-ALL, one of which showed low variable CD10 suggestive of DUX4-rearranged B-ALL. In comparison to our previously reported study of 2008 WHO-defined MPAL, 53/89 (60%) centrally-confirmed cases would be classified here as isoMPO. Conversely, five cases excluded under 2008 WHO central review would be reclassified as having sufficient antigen expression to qualify as MPAL (2 B/Myeloid, 3 T/Myeloid).Novel semiquantitative immunophenotypic criteria applied to a large cohort of acute leukemias originally diagnosed as MPAL was able to objectively identify a large subset as having dim, uniform MPO expression (isoMPO). Our approach emphasizes antigen expression recapitulating maturational expression similar to their non-leukemic cellular counterparts, normalizes absolute intensities to internal positive and negative control populations to minimize technical variability between observers and assays, and as per the 2017 WHO, does not require a specific percent threshold of positivity. While requiring validation, this is a critical first step toward establishing a reproducible delineation of these complex cases to practically implement the WHO classification to support treatment decisions and ongoing investigation into MPAL genomics and outcomes (available for this cohort by ASH). [Display omitted] DisclosuresOberley: Caris LIfe Science: Current Employment. Orgel: Jazz Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy.

On the Threshold of Compliance: Public Charities and the Public Support Test

SYNOPSIS This study investigates how public charities respond to the public support test—an IRS requirement that at least one-third of a public charity's financial support is derived from public sources. Using a large sample of 836,920 charity-year observations during 2009–2018, I find that a disproportionately large number of charities exceed the 33-1/3 percent public support threshold by a small margin. This result holds only for public charities actually subject to the test (six years of age or older) and not young charities that automatically retain public charity status. Further, I find that charities that unexpectedly just meet public support test are more likely to understate fundraising expenses. This evidence implies that the public support levels of charities that just surpass the 33-1/3 percent threshold are likely misrepresented. Overall, my findings provide new insights into a vitally important regulatory threshold that has been largely neglected in existing research. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: L31; L38; M41.

Wearable technology and the association of perioperative activity level with 30-day readmission among patients undergoing major colorectal surgery.

The proliferation of wearable technology presents a novel opportunity for perioperative activity monitoring; however, the association between perioperative activity level and readmission remains underexplored. This study sought to determine whether physical activity data captured by wearable technology before and after colorectal surgery can be used to predict 30-day readmission. In this prospective observational cohort study of adults undergoing elective major colorectal surgery (January 2018 to February 2019) at a single institution, participants wore an activity monitor 30days before and after surgery. The primary outcome was return to baseline percentage, defined as step count on the day before discharge as a percentage of mean preoperative daily step count, among readmitted and non-readmitted patients. 94 patients had sufficient data available for analysis, of which 16 patients (17.0%) were readmitted within 30days following discharge. Readmitted patients achieved a lower return to baseline percentage compared to patients who were not readmitted (median 15.1% vs. 31.8%; P = 0.004). On multivariable analysis adjusting for readmission risk and hospital length of stay, an absolute increase of 10% in return to baseline percentage was associated with a 40% decreased risk of 30-day readmission (odds ratio 0.60; P = 0.02). Analysis of the receiver operating characteristic curve identified 28.9% as an optimal return to baseline percent threshold for predicting readmission. Achieving a higher percentage of an individual's preoperative baseline activity level on the day prior to discharge after major colorectal surgery is associated with decreased risk of 30-day hospital readmission.

Soner Cagaptay, The New Sultan: Erdogan and The Crisis of Modern Turkey

Reviewed by: The New Sultan: Erdogan and The Crisis of Modern Turkey by Soner Cagaptay Hatice Mete Soner Cagaptay. The New Sultan: Erdogan and The Crisis of Modern Turkey. London: I.B. Tauris, 2017. 256 pp. Cloth, $35.00. ISBN: 978-1784538262. The New Sultan: Erdogan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey provides a road map of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's electoral successes and increasing political power.1 It is an extensive study that investigates the main factors and challenges in Turkish politics that have contributed to shaping Erdogan's political road map. As a historian by training, the author opens the layers of Turkish modern history starting from the 1920s until early 2017 while sharing Erdogan's story with the readers. The book is organized around giving an introduction about major developments in Turkish history, and explaining how these developments had affected Erdogan's life. It looks at Erdogan's story, and Turkish modern history, in periodic order starting from his childhood years, in Kasimpasa, a district in Istanbul, and in Rize, where he was originally from, to be elected as mayor of Istanbul, and finally into his presidency. The author displayed, for instance, how growing up in Kasimpasa, a "rough-hewn, conservative area" (p. 16), has shaped Erdogan's perception of the "other," which is the Westernized, [End Page 282] Kemalist, and secular side of Turkey. The author did not only reveal political developments in Turkish history but also provided glimpses of economic and social developments that had left a mark on Erdogan. It traces Erdogan's life story along with major events in Turkish history from the state's attempts to stamp out grassroot movements of Islam in the 1920s, through a street fight between militant leftist and rightist groups in the 1970s, the military's frequent intervention into politics through coup d'états and memorandums, and the Turkish economy's experience with neoliberal policies, and finally into the emergence of Erdogan's "conservative democracy." The author provides major turning points that have deeply affected not only Erdogan's political success and Turkish modern history but also Turkish foreign policy. One of the major points was political Islam coming to Turkey in the 1970s as a possible pillar against rising communism within the Cold War context, and the marginalization of Imam Hatip graduates, state-created religious schools used by governments as an instrument to control the religion in the public sphere. While religion has been an important element in Erdogan's personality, with the injection of Islam into politics by the 1980 junta, it has become a crucial factor in Turkish politics as well. Other turning points that shaped Erdogan's political life and modern history stated in the book include dissolution of the Turkish right in the 1990s along with the ten percent threshold that was put into effect after the 1980 coup d'état, 1997 soft coup, 2001 financial crisis, and the European Union (EU) accession process. The author explains, for instance, how the ten percent threshold, implemented to block Kurdish nationalist parties from gaining access to parliament, had backfired so unexpectedly and rather acted as an impediment for center-right and center-left parties entering the parliament in the 2002 elections, which resulted in the AKP's getting the majority of the parliamentary seats and the beginning of the AKP governance. Another interesting theme in the book is comparisons of Ataturk's modernization project and Erdogan's "New Turkey" project. The author emphasizes that "the irony is that while claiming to revive the pre-Ataturk empire, Erdogan is actually reviving the caricature of the Ottomans that he was taught by the Kemalists" (pp. 196–97). He explains that Kemalism no longer serves as a glue that brings together different ethnic and religious groups in Turkish society, as Erdogan relies on religion and the pre-Ataturk past to bind his electorates. Apart from Erdogan's story, the book involves details about other political leaders of center-right and Islamist parties such as former prime minister and leader of the Democrat Party (1946–61), Adnan Menderes, former president of Turkey, Suleyman Demirel, and founder of the Islamist National Order Party (1970–71) Necmettin Erbakan, who...

АНАЛІЗ КОН’ЮНКТУРИ ПРОДОВОЛЬЧОГО РИНКУ ТА ВИЗНАЧЕННЯ СТРАТЕГІЧНИХ ЦІЛЕЙ ЙОГО РОЗВИТКУ

The article analyzes the conjuncture in the food market of Ukraine and trends in its development. The actual capacity of the domestic market for certain products has been determined, taking into account the reduction of the average per capita consumption of certain food products by the population and the reduction of the population of Ukraine. It is established that the growth of gross output of agricultural products has improved the level of self-sufficiency in food in Ukraine. Satisfaction of the population’s food needs, within its purchasing power, is almost entirely provided by domestic products, with the exception of fruits, berries, and grapes. The food market in Ukraine is imperfect, the demand for food is not met by increasing production, but is formed in conditions of low solvency of the population, and the actual consumption of food does not reach the level of rational physiological norms. The formation of the domestic food market, except for gross domestic production, depends on exports and imports of certain groups of food products. Analysis of the dynamics of export-import operations with food products showed a rapid trend towards increasing exports of grain and oil. At the same time, we note an increase in imports of fruits, as well as potatoes, vegetables, oil and milk, and dairy products. A partly significant percentage of imports of fruits, berries, and oil are determined by the import into Ukraine of products that are not produced in our natural and climatic conditions: tropical fruits, olive oil, etc. However, the percentage of import dependence on fruits, berries, and grapes, as well as oil (except sunflower) is much higher than the 30 percent threshold. Effective development of the food market, which will ensure the balance of supply and demand and meet the needs of the population in quality food, should take place by combining the laws of a market economy, good governance, and improving living standards. According to the results of the analysis of conjuncture of the food market of Ukraine, the strategic goals of its development aimed at elimination of existing disparities in agricultural and industrial production, quality of life, a transition from the export of raw materials to export of value-added goods are determined.

Ranked-Choice Voting Delivers Representation and Consensus in Presidential Primaries

This article empirically examines the results of the 2020 Democratic Party’s presidential nomination contests in the five states that adopted ranked choice voting rules. The findings shed light on how voters ranked candidates based on not only the need to nominate the strongest candidate to represent the party in the general election, but also to ensure representation of the diverse electorate at the national convention. The paper also considers how the 15 percent threshold of vote shares required to earn national delegates affected the results of RCV elections in 2020. Finally, it assesses the possibility of changes to the delegate allocation if this threshold is altered in the context of RCV rule adoptions in the future.

338 - Risk factors for moderate cognitive impairment and dementia in the Kazakh and Kyrgyz populations (preliminary results)

The current demographic situation in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan is associated with pronounced processes of population aging. Today, about two million elderly people live in Kazakhstan, which makes up more than 10% of the population, which crosses a seven percent threshold for determining the “aging” country in the world.For Kyrgyzstan, an increase in the proportion of the elderly is a new phenomenon. At the beginning of 2016, there were 965,385 people over 50 in Kyrgyzstan, which is 16% of the total population, of whom 60 and over are 7.06%. According to the average version of the forecast, the relative number of people 60 years and older will almost triple by 2050. (M. B. Denisenko, 2011, Report of a statistical study, 2017) The aging of the population is the most significant social problem of the XXI st century and is associated with the development of cognitive impairment and dementia. Moderate cognitive impairment, according to several authors are an intermediate stage between normal aging and dementia (Brodaty H., 2013, Peterson, 2009).The cause of cognitive disorders in old age can be a number of diseases, including neurodegenerative. According to projections, it is expected that neurodegenerative diseases will surpass cancer as the leading cause of death by 2040 (Walter U., 2013). The Global prevalence pattern of dementia depends on several factors, from life expectancy to the health status, last but not least from the particular environment.Purpose of the study. To study the prevalence of cognitive impairment and the main risk factors for their occurrence among people over 60 in the Kazakh and Kyrgyz populations.Materials and methods.The screening was attended by 300 respondents (150 Kazakhs and 150 Kyrgyz) aged 60 to 90 years (average age 65.6). The material was collected using the Questionnaire for the Champ Clinic and the MOCA test (cut-off point &lt;26) based on the city polyclinics of Almaty and Bishkek.Results:moderate cognitive impairment was detected - 39.9%, mild cognitive impairment - 33.4%, normal cognitive function - 26.7% in Kazakhs. In the Kyrgyz population, a moderate cognitive impairment was identified - 48.3%; pronounced cognitive impairment - 15.4%, dementia - 8.2%. Expected risk factors for cognitive impairment: 1) in Kazakhs, arterial hypertension - 86.89%, cardiac ischemia, angina pectoris - 70.21%, pathology of the thyroid gland and pancreas (diabetes, hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism) - 29.50%, atherosclerotic vascular diseases - 29.9%, brain injury - 18.22%, education level - 4.24%, depression - 0.6%, respectively. 2) in Kyrgyz: arterial hypertension - 49%, cardiac ischemia, angina pectoris - 13%, pathology of the thyroid gland and pancreas (diabetes, hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism) - 21%, low level of education - 11%, Bad habits of smoking and alcohol - 25 %, 20%, respectively.Conclusions:The transformation of the demographic burden can have important implications for the social security system.We have an urgent need to continue screening the population to identify the main risk factors for moderate cognitive impairment in individuals in the Kazakh and Kyrgyz populations.

A Spectre Haunting Europe

Germany’s 2017 elections marked the first time since 1949 that a far-right party with neo-Nazi adherents crossed the 5 percent threshold, entering the Bundestag. Securing nearly 13 percent of the vote, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) impeded Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ability to pull together a sustainable national coalition for nearly six months. Violating long-standing partisan taboos, the AfD “victory” is a weak reflection of national-populist forces that have gained control of other European governments over the last decade. This paper addresses the ostensible causes of resurgent ethno-nationalism across eu states, especially the global financial crisis of 2008/2009 and Merkel’s principled stance on refugees and asylum seekers as of 2015. The primary causes fueling this negative resurgence are systemic in nature, reflecting the deconstruction of welfare states, shifts in political discourse, and opportunistic, albeit misguided responses to demographic change. It highlights a curious gender-twist underlying AfD support, particularly in the East, stressing eight factors that have led disproportionate numbers of middle-aged men to gravitate to such movements. It offers an exploratory treatment of the “psychology of aging” and recent neuro-scientific findings involving right-wing biases towards authoritarianism, social aggression and racism.