Peak River Discharge Research Articles

Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in East Africa considering CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6

Climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources in East Africa require proper planning of regional adaptation measures. Past studies on the subject matter tended to focus on catchment instead of regional scale. To support actionable policy regarding regional planning of water resources management, this paper reviewed studies conducted in East Africa based on CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6. Compared to the historical condition, temperature of East Africa over the mid- to late 21st century will increase by varying extents over the range 0.17–7°C with about 2.6°C on average. Future precipitation over East Africa will increase by 8.5% on average. Changes in discharge based on CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 will vary from −25.3 to +60.5%, −42.5 to 129%, and −23.4 to 69%, respectively. Ensemble means of the changes in discharge across the study area based on CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 will be by 25.2, 19.2, and 19.1%, respectively. Future peak river discharge across East Africa will increase by 8% on average. These results are important for planning regional climate change adaptation across East Africa. To support local or catchment adaptation, results of climate change impacts of temperature, precipitation and discharge of about 50 catchments across East Africa can be found summarized in this review paper. It is recommended that both regional and local policies or approaches should be considered for climate change adaptation to ensure a balanced, effective and sustainable framework for climate resilience in support of measures for tackling broad and specific needs cohesively.

Depositional architecture of the tide-dominated late Oligocene hydrocarbon reservoirs in the Tapti-Daman block, Mumbai Offshore basin, India

The intricate interaction between tidal and river currents across a gently sloping shelf area complicates the geological interpretation of sedimentary deposits in subsurface sections. This study comprehensively analyzes the depositional framework and facies architecture in the late Oligocene siliciclastic succession of the Daman Formation, Mumbai Offshore Basin, which shows subtle changes in depositional stacking pattern in response to shoreline shifts. The late Oligocene siliciclastic succession being a major hydrocarbon producer in the Mumbai Offshore Basin; this research also aims to enhance the optimization of reserve exploitation and prospectivity evaluation. A detailed analysis was conducted using well-logs and seismic data integrated with available geological data. The Oligo-Miocene sequence demonstrates a coarsening-upward facies trend until the late Oligocene, followed by a fining-upward facies trend during the early Miocene and characterized by numerous stacked sandstone layers. The facies distribution pattern, sedimentary characteristics, and progradational geometry suggest a deltaic system dominated by tides for the late Oligocene succession and the latter part of the early Oligocene succession. The early Miocene succession shows a reversal in depositional trend with a retrogradation pattern. The late Oligocene deltaic deposits show a very high sediment load deposited during the peak river discharge from the Narmada-Tapti River system. The gentle depositional slope allowed redistribution of sediments by tidal currents. The deltaic system was further resolved into subaqueous mouth bar, delta front, and prodelta facies associations based on facies modeling. The correlation of the facies model with the regional depositional setup indicates that the late Oligocene succession corresponds to a third-order highstand system tract (HST) cycle.

Subgrid Model of Water Storage in Paddy Fields for a Grid-Based Distributed Rainfall–Runoff Model and Assessment of Paddy Field Dam Effects on Flood Control

Paddy field dams are basin-level flood control measures that promote rainwater storage; however, a general runoff model cannot adequately describe the water balance in paddy fields. This study develops a subgrid model for evaluating paddy water balance considering land use on a computational grid. Subgrid models can account for the storage effect of paddy field dams without disregarding the general grid-based distributed rainfall–runoff model framework. To investigate the effect of current paddy field storage and the introduction of paddy field dams on reducing peak flood discharge, rainfall–runoff analysis was conducted using the proposed model in the Kashima River basin, which flows into Lake Inba-numa in Chiba Prefecture, Japan. The computational results indicated that the rainwater storage effect of current paddy fields reduces the peak river discharge, suggesting that the drainage process of the paddy field should be incorporated into runoff models. Furthermore, the storage effect of paddy fields became more pronounced as the height of the drainage pipe in the paddy field dam increased. The calculated results quantitatively show the flood control effect of paddy field storage over the entire basin; thus, the proposed subgrid model may be a useful tool for promoting basin-level flood control measures.

Gravimetry and hydrologic data to constrain the hydrodynamics of a karstic area: The Škocjan Caves study case

In this paper we employ a combination of gravity and hydrologic data to constrain a hydraulic model of the Škocjan Caves, an allogenic dominated karstic system in Slovenia. The gravity time-series recorded by a spring-based gravimeter, are carefully analyzed to remove tidal and non-tidal effects and unveil the local hydrologic contribution, which is influenced by the temporary accumulation of water in the cave system during the flood events of the Reka river.We make use of a combined analysis of three large flood events with peak river discharge of about 200, 230 and 300 m3/s, that caused significant water level and gravity variations sensed by the pressure transducer and by the gravimeter. By the integration of hydraulic modelling we study the different coupled gravimetric-hydrologic responses to these flood events: we show that, depending on the peak discharge and duration of the event, different flow conditions are present in the cave system. In addition to the information provided by the pressure transducer, the gravimeter is sensitive to the flow dynamics in a different sector of the cave due to the choice of its location; this configuration helps to better constrain the hydraulic model.Moreover, we find that the autogenic recharge by percolating water can significantly affect the gravity time-series and must be considered in related models. By inclusion of both the hydraulic model outcomes and of the modelling of the autogenic recharge, we are able to better explain the gravity transients during the two smaller magnitude events. In particular, during such events the autogenic contribution produces a transient gravity signal, which is about 4 times larger than the allogenic one, while during the largest flood the allogenic contribution drastically overcomes the autogenic effect by a factor 20.By discussing this case, we prove the potential of terrestrial gravity observation to depict the hydro-dynamics of these complex karstic systems as well as the potential of gravimetry to remotely monitor these storage units.

Assessment of climate change impacts on river flooding due to Typhoon Hagibis in 2019 using nonglobal warming experiments

AbstractIn this study, a series of numerical analyses of meteorology, runoff, river flow, and inundation were performed to quantitatively evaluate the effects of historical warming on precipitation, discharge, water level, and flood inundation. This study was on the flood inundation of the Chikuma River Basin in Japan caused by Typhoon Hagibis in 2019. The historical warming impact on Typhoon Hagibis was analyzed by comparing nonglobal warming experiments (NonWs) and control experiments (CTLs) to reproduce the current situation. Calculated results showed that the ratios of the index of CTLs to that of NonWs (mean CTL to mean NonW) as indicators of the impact of historical warming were 1.08, 1.22, and 1.08–3.08 for total precipitation, peak river discharge, and peak water level (from pre‐flood level and high‐water level), respectively, and 48.1 and 595 for overflow depth and inundation volume for the Chikuma River, respectively. Results of the hydrologic‐sensitivity analysis indicated that the influence of historical warming during the last 40‐year period was already evident on overflow and flooding, whose sensitivities were higher than those of discharge and water level.

Estuarine Salinity Response to Freshwater Pulses

AbstractFreshwater pulses (during which river discharge is much higher than average) occur in many estuaries and strongly impact estuarine functioning. To gain insight into the estuarine salinity response to freshwater pulses, an idealized model is presented. With respect to earlier models on the spatiotemporal behavior of salinity in estuaries, it includes additional processes that provide a more detailed vertical structure of salinity. Simulation of an observed salinity response to a freshwater pulse in the Guadalquivir Estuary (Spain) shows that this is important to adequately simulate the salinity structure. The model is used to determine the dependency of the estuarine salinity response to freshwater pulses for different background discharge, tides, and different intensities and durations of the pulses. Results indicate that the change in salt intrusion length due to a freshwater pulse is proportional to the ratio between peak and background river discharge and depends linearly on the duration of the pulse if there is no equilibration during the pulse. The adjustment time, which is the time it takes for the estuary to reach equilibrium after an increase in river discharge, scales with the ratio of the change in salt intrusion length and the peak river discharge. The recovery time, that is, the time it takes for the estuary to reach equilibrium after a decrease in river discharge, does not depend on the amount of decrease in salt intrusion length caused by the pulse. The strength of the tides is of minor importance to the salt dynamics during and after the pulse.

Peak Spring Flood Discharge Magnitude and Timing in Natural Rivers across Northern Finland: Long-Term Variability, Trends, and Links to Climate Teleconnections

In northern regions, like Finland, peak river discharge is principally controlled by maximum snowmelt runoff during spring (March–May). Global warming and climate change extensively influence both the quantity and temporal characteristics of peak discharge in northern rivers by altering snowpack accumulation and melt processes. This study analyzed peak spring flood discharge (PSFD) magnitude (PSFDM) and timing (PSFDT) in four natural rivers (Simojoki, Kuivajoki, Kiiminkijoki, and Temmesjoki) across northern Finland, in terms of long-term (1967–2011) variability, trends, and links to large-scale climate teleconnections. The PSFDM significantly (p < 0.05) declined in the Simojoki, Kuivajoki, and Kiiminkijoki rivers over time. Both the Simojoki and Kuivajoki rivers also experienced significant decreasing trends of about −0.33 and −0.3 (days year−1), respectively, in the PSFDT during 1967–2011. In these two rivers, the less and earlier PSFDs were principally attributable to the warmer spring seasons positively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in recent decades. Moreover, daily precipitation time series corresponding to the PSFD events showed no considerable effects on PSFDM and PSFDT changes in all the natural rivers studied. This suggests that less and earlier historical PSFDs in natural rivers at higher latitudes in northern Finland were primarily induced by warmer springtime temperatures influencing snowpack dynamics.

Synoptic Flow Variability in a River-Influenced Inner Shelf off Central Chile

The response of inner shelf circulation and bottom temperature variability to synoptic wind forcing and freshwater outflow is evaluated in an area with a wide continental shelf off central Chile. This forced circulation, with a strong seasonal evolution from upwelling- to downwelling-favorable conditions, is a key process modulating the exchange of water properties in a coastal zone characterized by multiple river outflows and high biological productivity. Ocean currents on the inner shelf (34 m depth) off the Itata River mouth were obtained and analyzed for a nine-month record (December 2008 to September 2009). The synoptic wind and current variability was defined between 2 and 16 days (0.02 to 0.0026 cph). The subinertial coastal circulation within the inner shelf off Itata River was dominated by the along-shelf flow, while cross-shelf flows driven by along-shelf winds were substantially reduced. The alongshore synoptic currents showed two distinct modal structures: (i) A mean two-layer flow field during upwelling-favorable wind stress with northward (southward) flow at the surface (bottom), and (ii) a mean southward flow through the entire water column during downwelling-favorable wind stress periods, which were intensified during peak river discharge events in winter. Calculations of the wind index clarified the relative importance of wind versus buoyancy forcing on the alongshore flow. The wind forcing dominated during summer when the river discharge was minimum, whereas the relative importance of the freshwater outflow from the Itata River became dominant in winter (May-August) when the buoyancy forcing, in conjunction with southward wind events, modulated strong barotropic southward flows. The change in the long-term regime of coastal winds and river discharges, with a dominance of upwelling winds and reduced river outflows in the last decade, is discussed in the context of observations of thinner river plumes under frequent upwelling conditions off central Chile.

Seasonal variability of stratified flow properties in a Non-tidal Strait-A field study

The Bosporus Strait, connecting the Black Sea and the Marmara Sea in Turkey, is an example of a hydrodynamically complex strait. The Strait features a multi-layered (typically two-layer) flow system and is an example of (nearly) non-tidal exchange flow. A comprehensive measurement program including long- and short-term flow velocity, water level (near both entrances of the waterway), salinity, temperature, meteorological parameters (wind speed, wind direction, and atmospheric pressures at both entrances), and discharges of the Danube River were analyzed for the period between October 2004 and October 2005. The results show high variability in the layer velocities and salinities both temporally and spatially, and the typical two-layered current structure could be sustained for water level differences (the Black Sea minus the Marmara Sea) between zero and +45 cm. However, unidirectional flow, either northward or southward, is found at times, mostly in the fall and winter due to the severe meteorological (especially wind) conditions. The river inflow to the Black Sea is a strong control on the water level in the Bosphorus Strait—and, therefore, on the current structure—during the springtime and there is around a one-month phase lag between the peak river discharges and the peak water level increase in the strait. The relationship between the water level difference of the strait and the flow properties (thicknesses and flow rates) of both layers was also quantified from the cross-sectional current measurements. The velocity structures show both high qualitative and quantitative variability between the main channel and the side slopes of the cross-sections, and taking profile measurements on the slope without cross-sectional data may give a misleading assessment of the flow structure at the point of interest. There is strong mixing between the two layers throughout the strait causing a variation of 4–5 in the salinity of both layers between the two entrances. The non-dimensional flow rate calculation showed that the maximum exchange through the strait occurred for Composite Froude numbers (G2) of around unity.

A Workflow to Extract the Geometry and Type of Vegetated Landscape Elements from Airborne LiDAR Point Clouds

Rural European landscapes are characterized by a variety of vegetated landscape elements. Although it is often not their main function, they have the potential to affect river discharge and the frequency, extent, depth and duration of floods downstream by creating both hydrological discontinuities and connections across the landscape. Information about the extent to which individual landscape elements and their spatial location affect peak river discharge and flood frequency and severity in agricultural catchments under specific meteorological conditions is limited. This knowledge gap can partly be explained by the lack of exhaustive inventories of the presence, geometry, and hydrological traits of vegetated landscape elements (vLEs), which in turn is due to the lack of appropriate techniques and source data to produce such inventories and keep them up to date. In this paper, a multi-step methodology is proposed to delineate and classify vLEs based on LiDAR point cloud data in three study areas in Flanders, Belgium. We classified the LiDAR point cloud data into the classes ‘vegetated landscape element point’ and ‘other’ using a Random Forest model with an accuracy classification score ranging between 0.92 and 0.97. The landscape element objects were further classified into the classes ‘tree object’ and ‘shrub object’ using a Logistic Regression model with an area-based accuracy ranging between 0.34 and 0.95.

Short-term river mouth bar development during extreme river discharge events: The role of the phase difference between the peak discharge and the tidal level

This paper addresses the role of the phase difference between the peak discharge and the tidal level on the development of nearshore bars at river mouths during extreme river discharge events. We use a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic numerical model (Delft3D) to reproduce extreme river discharge events on an idealized river mouth debouching on a nearshore shelf, characterized by a concave cross-shore profile. Different peak river discharges and lags between the peak discharge at the upstream boundary and the high tide at the offshore boundary are tested. The analysis of the water levels, currents, bed shear stresses, sediment transport rates and bed level changes shows that the lag between tidal conditions and river discharge triggers significant changes in (1) the instant in which the maximum currents at the outlet are reached, (2) the period for which the sediment is mobilized through the outlet, and (3) the maximum sediment transport rates during the events. These changes significantly modify the final characteristics of the river mouth bars, doubling their final extension and quadrupling the final bar volume for the same river discharge conditions and different phase lag, varying also their plan shape and the development of lateral subaqueous levees. These results emphasize the complex interplay between river and coastal hydrodynamics, being of major interest for researchers and managers dealing with projections of the consequences of coastal extreme events and plans to mitigate their effects.

Storm-Driven Fresh Submarine Groundwater Discharge and Nutrient Fluxes From a Barrier Island

Quantifying and characterizing groundwater flow and discharge from barrier islands to coastal waters is crucial for assessing freshwater resources and contaminant transport to the ocean. In this study, we examined the groundwater hydrological response, discharge, and associated nutrient fluxes in Dauphin Island, a barrier island located in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. We employed radon (222Rn) and radium (Ra) isotopes as tracers to evaluate the temporal and spatial variability of fresh and recirculated submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) in the nearshore waters. The results from a 40-day continuous 222Rn time series conducted during a rainy season suggest that the coastal area surrounding Dauphin Island was river-dominated in the days after storm events. Groundwater response was detected about 1 week after the precipitation and peak river discharge. During the period when SGD was a factor in the nutrient budget of the coastal area, the total SGD rates were as high as 1.36 m day–1, or almost three times higher than detected fluxes during the river-dominated period. We found from a three-endmember Ra mixing model that most of the SGD from the barrier island was composed of fresh groundwater. SGD was driven by marine and terrestrial forces, and focused on the southeastern part of the island. We observed spatial variability of nutrients in the subterranean estuary across this part of the island. Reduced nitrogen (i.e., NH4+ and dissolved organic nitrogen) fluxes dominated the eastern shore with average rates of 4.88 and 5.20 mmol m–2 day–1, respectively. In contrast, NO3– was prevalent along the south-central shore, which has significant tourism developments. The contrasting nutrient dynamics resulted in N- and P-limited coastal water in the different parts of the island. This study emphasizes the importance of understanding groundwater flow and dynamics in barrier islands, particularly those urbanized, prone to storm events, or located near large estuaries.

Seasonal Controls on Sediment Delivery and Hydrodynamics in a Vegetated Tidally Influenced Interdistributary Island

AbstractRiver deltas are maintained by a continuous supply of terrestrial sediments that provide critical land building material to help sustain and protect vulnerable ecological communities and serve as natural storm protection barriers. Local hydrodynamics are important in determining the degree to which fluvial sediments are removed from the water column and retained on the delta complex. During 2014, we measured hydrodynamics and sediment transport characteristics at one of the world's most rapidly prograding deltas, the Wax Lake delta in Louisiana, USA. We observed waves to be the dominant source of bottom stress for 70% of our observations. Sediment concentration tended to increase with shear stress, but only after stresses exceeded 0.01–0.02 Pa. Significant wave height and bottom stress were substantially reduced after June, when the emergence of American lotus (Nelumbo lutea) formed a dense canopy over the intertidal regions of the island splay. Hydrodynamics during these summer vegetated conditions were much more favorable to floc formation, and by extension particle settling, as shown by trends in the Kolmogorov microscale parameter over the course of the measurement campaign. Together, these findings suggest that the timing between peak river discharge and the emergence of vegetation may have a strong influence on rates of progradation in seasonally vegetated delta splays, whereby sediments delivered by flood events that extend late into summer may be governed by hydrodynamics that favor particle deposition, whereas those delivered prior to the summer may be more prone to remain in suspension and bypass the delta complex.

Integrative Assessment of Stormwater Infiltration Practices in Rapidly Urbanizing Cities: A Case of Lucknow City, India

The lack of strategic planning in stormwater management has made rapidly urbanizing cities more vulnerable to urban water issues than in the past. Low infiltration rates, increase in peak river discharge, and recurrence of urban floods and waterlogging are clear signs of unplanned rapid urbanization. As with many other low to middle-income countries, India depends on its conventional and centralized stormwater drains for managing stormwater runoff. However, in the absence of a robust stormwater management policy governed by the state, its impact trickles down to a municipal level and the negative outcome can be clearly observed through a failure of the drainage systems. This study examines the role of onsite and decentralized stormwater infiltration facilities, as successfully adopted by some higher income countries, under physical and social variability in the context of the metropolitan city of Lucknow, India. Considering the 2030 Master Plan of Lucknow city, this study investigated the physical viability of the infiltration facilities. Gridded ModClark rainfall-runoff modeling was carried out in Kukrail river basin, an important drainage basin of Lucknow city. The HEC-HMS model, inside the watershed modeling system (WMS), was used to simulate stormwater runoff for multiple scenarios of land use and rainfall intensities. With onsite infiltration facilities as part of land use measures, the peak discharge reduced in the range of 48% to 59%. Correlation analysis and multiple regression were applied to understand the rainfall-runoff relationship. Furthermore, the stormwater runoff drastically reduced with decentralized infiltration systems.

Nutrient content and stoichiometry of pelagic Sargassum reflects increasing nitrogen availability in the Atlantic Basin

The pelagic brown macroalgae Sargassum spp. have grown for centuries in oligotrophic waters of the North Atlantic Ocean supported by natural nutrient sources, such as excretions from associated fishes and invertebrates, upwelling, and N2 fixation. Using a unique historical baseline, we show that since the 1980s the tissue %N of Sargassum spp. has increased by 35%, while %P has decreased by 44%, resulting in a 111% increase in the N:P ratio (13:1 to 28:1) and increased P limitation. The highest %N and δ15N values occurred in coastal waters influenced by N-rich terrestrial runoff, while lower C:N and C:P ratios occurred in winter and spring during peak river discharges. These findings suggest that increased N availability is supporting blooms of Sargassum and turning a critical nursery habitat into harmful algal blooms with catastrophic impacts on coastal ecosystems, economies, and human health.

DOM degradation by light and microbes along the Yukon River-coastal ocean continuum

The Arctic is experiencing rapid warming, resulting in fundamental shifts in hydrologic connectivity and carbon cycling. Dissolved organic matter (DOM) is a significant component of the Arctic and global carbon cycle, and significant perturbations to DOM cycling are expected with Arctic warming. The impact of photochemical and microbial degradation, and their interactive effects, on DOM composition and remineralization have been documented in Arctic soils and rivers. However, the role of microbes, sunlight and their interactions on Arctic DOM alteration and remineralization in the coastal ocean has not been considered, particularly during the spring freshet when DOM loads are high, photoexposure can be quite limited and residence time within river networks is low. Here, we collected DOM samples along a salinity gradient in the Yukon River delta, plume and coastal ocean during peak river discharge immediately after spring freshet and explored the role of UV exposure, microbial transformations and interactive effects on DOM quantity and composition. Our results show: (1) photochemical alteration of DOM significantly shifts processing pathways of terrestrial DOM, including increasing relative humification of DOM by microbes by > 10%; (2) microbes produce humic-like material that is not optically distinguishable from terrestrial humics; and (3) size-fractionation of the microbial community indicates a size-dependent role for DOM remineralization and humification of DOM observed through modeled PARAFAC components of fluorescent DOM, either through direct or community effects. Field observations indicate apparent conservative mixing along the salinity gradient; however, changing photochemical and microbial alteration of DOM with increasing salinity indicate changing DOM composition likely due to microbial activity. Finally, our findings show potential for rapid transformation of DOM in the coastal ocean from photochemical and microbial alteration, with microbes responsible for the majority of dissolved organic matter remineralization.

The Response of Turbidity Maximum to Peak River Discharge in a Macrotidal Estuary

The Ou River, a medium-sized river in the southeastern China, is examined to study the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) response to rapidly varied river discharge, i.e., peak river discharge (PRD). This study analyzes the difference in ETM and sediment transport mechanisms between low-discharge and PRD during neap and spring tides by using the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model. The three-dimensional model is validated by in-situ measurements from 23 April to 22 May 2007. In the Ou River Estuary (ORE), ETM is generally induced by the convergence between river runoff and density-driven flow. The position of ETM for neap and spring tides is similar, but the suspended sediment concentration during spring tide is stronger than that during neap tide. The sediment source of ETM is mainly derived from the resuspension of the seabed. PRD, compared with low-discharge, can dilute the ETM, but cause more sediment to be resuspended from the seabed. The ETM is more seaward during PRD. After PRD, the larger the peak discharge, the longer the recovery time will be. Moreover, the river sediment supply helps shorten ETM recovery time. Mechanisms for this ETM during a PRD can contribute to studies of morphological evolution and pollutant flushing.

The Response of Lateral Flow to Peak River Discharge in a Macrotidal Estuary

The Ou River, a medium-sized river in southeastern China, is selected to study the lateral flow response to rapidly varied river discharge, i.e., peak river discharge (PRD). A three-dimensional model based on the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model is validated by in situ measurements from 15 June to 16 July 2005. PRD, which considers the extra buoyancy and longitudinal momentum in a short time, rebuilds the stratification and lateral flow. PRD, compared with low-discharge, generally makes stratification stronger and lateral flow weaker. PRD mainly rebuilds lateral flow by changing lateral advection, lateral Coriolis, and lateral-barotropic pressure gradient terms. After PRD, the salinity recovery time is longer than that of the flow because the impact on buoyancy lasts longer than that on longitudinal flow. Longitudinal flow is mostly affected by the momentum transferred during PRD; therefore, the recovery time is close to the flooding duration. However, the lateral flow is affected by the buoyancy, and its recovery time is generally longer than the flooding duration. The lateral flow recovery time depends on transect width, flow velocity and the variation caused by PRD. PRD occurs widely in global small-/medium-sized river estuaries, and the result of this work can be extended to other estuaries.

Effects of Hurricane Irma on residual flows and saltwater intrusion in a subtropical estuary

The variability of residual flows and saltwater intrusion was evaluated for the duration of a hurricane-related freshwater pulse in a subtropical estuary, the Suwannee River. Increased rainfall affected the river’s watershed when Hurricane Irma skirted the west coast of Florida in September 2017. The river remained short of reaching flood stages, but the increased river discharge was enough to modify the residual circulation and restrict saltwater intrusion. Current velocity profiles and hydrographic variables were collected in five tidal-cycle experiments to study the lower estuary’s response to the peak river discharge and its subsequent relaxation. Data were recorded in three cross-estuary transects. In addition, continuous salinity measurements were recorded for 48 days over the shallow portion of the seaward transect. Results showed that the subtidal water-level slope inside the estuary, between the mouth and a river station at Wilcox, modified the residual circulation and restricted the intrusion of salt water. During high tide, salt water entered the estuary due to tidal pumping even though residual circulation was seaward in the cross-section. Residual seaward flows persisted for the duration of the hurricane-related freshwater pulse. After relaxation of the freshwater pulse, saltwater intrusion was observed in the time series over the shallow portion. This saltwater intrusion responded to changes in wind forcing, with largest intrusions when the wind blew into the estuary, i.e., toward the N and NW.

Use of Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for Flood Mitigation with Adaptive Reservoir Operation: A Case Study of the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand, in 2011

Predicting streamflow can help water managers make policy decisions for individual river basins. In 2011, heavy rainfall from May until October resulted in the largest flood event in the history of Thailand. This event created difficulty for water managers, who lacked information to make predictions. Studies on the 2011 Thai flood have proposed alternative reservoir operations for flood mitigation. However, no study to date has used predictive information to determine how to control reservoirs and mitigate such extreme floods. Thus, the objective of this study is to update and develop a method for using streamflow predictive data to support adaptive reservoir operation with the aim of mitigating the 2011 flood. The study area was the Chao Phraya River Basin, one of the most important basins in Thailand. We obtained predictive information from a hydrological model with a reservoir operation module using an ensemble of seasonal precipitation data from the European Centre for Medium–Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The six-month ECMWF prediction period was used to support the operation plan for mitigating flooding in 2011 around each reservoir during the wet season. Decision-making for reservoir operation based on seasonal predictions was conducted on a monthly time scale. The results showed that peak river discharge decreased slightly, by around 4%, when seasonal predictive data were used. Moreover, changing the reservoir operation plan and using seasonal predictions decreased the peak river discharge by around 20%.