You have accessJournal of UrologyProstate Cancer: Detection & Screening IV1 Apr 2016PD15-10 COMBINED ERSPC RISK CALCULATOR AND MULTIPARAMETRIC MRI FOR ADVANCED RISK MODELING OF PROSTATE CANCER Jan Philipp Radtke, David Bonekamp, Martin Freitag, Claudia Verena Kesch, Celine Alt, Kamil Celik, Florian Distler, Kathrin Wieczorek, Matthias Claudius Roethke, Heinz-Peter Schlemmer, Markus Hohenfellner, and Boris Hadaschik Jan Philipp RadtkeJan Philipp Radtke More articles by this author , David BonekampDavid Bonekamp More articles by this author , Martin FreitagMartin Freitag More articles by this author , Claudia Verena KeschClaudia Verena Kesch More articles by this author , Celine AltCeline Alt More articles by this author , Kamil CelikKamil Celik More articles by this author , Florian DistlerFlorian Distler More articles by this author , Kathrin WieczorekKathrin Wieczorek More articles by this author , Matthias Claudius RoethkeMatthias Claudius Roethke More articles by this author , Heinz-Peter SchlemmerHeinz-Peter Schlemmer More articles by this author , Markus HohenfellnerMarkus Hohenfellner More articles by this author , and Boris HadaschikBoris Hadaschik More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.juro.2016.02.1136AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES Multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) gains widespread acceptance in PC diagnosis and improves detection of significant PC (sPC). We added pre-biopsy mpMRI data to a European Randomised study of Screening for PC (ERSPC) risk calculator 4 (RC4) and developed a nomogram to predict individual sPC risk. METHODS First, clinical parameters of 755 men who underwent mpMRI prior to transperineal MRI/TRUS-fusion-biopsy between 2012 and 2014 were retrospectively analyzed as training sample. SPC was defined according to NCCN criteria (GS=3+3 and PSA>=10 ng/ml or GS>=3+4). A multivariate regression model was used to determine significant predictors of sPC in the training set and to develop a nomogram. The accuracy was compared to ERSPC RC4 and mpMRI alone (PI-RADS Likert score) by Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Based on the difference in accuracy, a sample size calculation was performed for a validation set. Subsequently, accuracy, discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were prospectively analyzed in 404 men. RESULTS Overall, PC occurred in 732 (63%) and sPC in 560 (48%) men. In the trainings set, 50% of men harbored PC and 78% of them sPC. In multivariate analysis, PSA, PSA-density, Likert score and ERSPC RC4 (each p<0.001) were significant predictors of sPC and used for the prediction model. In ROC analysis, Area under the curve (AUC) was highest for the novel nomogram (0.82), compared to 0.74 for ERSPC RC4 and 0.76 for Likert scoring. Based on the 0.08 benefit of the nomogram, 404 men were enrolled as prospective validation sample. In that subgroup, accuracy of the nomogram was best (0.79), compared to Likert scoring (0.78) and ERSPC RC4 (0.60). Calibration was analyzed using a calibration plot, demonstrating a good slope (0.94). However, the plot demonstrates slight overestimation of the prediction model. CONCLUSIONS We provide a new prostate cancer prediction model. This model incorporates both ERSPC RC4 and mpMRI data. Compared to clinical and MRI parameters alone, the model provides significantly more reliable non-invasive risk prediction of sPC. Thus, it can help to avoid unnecessary prostate biopsies. © 2016FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 195Issue 4SApril 2016Page: e392-e393 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2016MetricsAuthor Information Jan Philipp Radtke More articles by this author David Bonekamp More articles by this author Martin Freitag More articles by this author Claudia Verena Kesch More articles by this author Celine Alt More articles by this author Kamil Celik More articles by this author Florian Distler More articles by this author Kathrin Wieczorek More articles by this author Matthias Claudius Roethke More articles by this author Heinz-Peter Schlemmer More articles by this author Markus Hohenfellner More articles by this author Boris Hadaschik More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement Advertisement PDF downloadLoading ...
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