PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Research Articles

Modelling food demand in the 21st century

Modelling food demand in the 21st century

EUREGIO: The Construction of a Global IO Database With Regional Detail for Europe for 2000–2010

This paper introduces the EUREGIO database: the first time-series (annual, 2000-2010) of global IO tables with regional detail for the entire large trading bloc of the European Union. The construction of this database, which allows for regional analysis at the level of so-called NUTS2 regions, is presented in detail for its methodology and applications. The tables merge data from WIOD (the 2013 release) with, regional economic accounts, and interregional trade estimates developed by PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, complemented with survey-based regional input-output data for a limited number of countries. All used data are survey data and only non-behavioral assumptions have been made to estimate the EUREGIO dataset. These two general rules of data construction allow empirical analyses focused on impacts of changes in behavior (of economies, firms, policies) without endogenously having this behavior embedded already by construction. The tables are publicly available to the research community, from the Dutch government open data website. In this project, both a regional trade database, and production and consumption data of different actors in different regions, were used. The focus is thus intentionally on the regionalization of both trade and the regional use and supply of products by different economic actors. The paper is organized around the successive steps of the data construction: (1) adjustment of WIOD, (2) regional information, (3) Construction of tables, (4) conclusions on the usefulness of this type of regional IO tables with an overview of current applications of the EUREGIO database.

A sensitivity analysis of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands

Strategic freight transport models can be used for a quantitative analysis of long term forecasts. This paper discusses an analysis of the bandwidth of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with the strategic freight transport model ‘BasGoed’. This model was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and available transport data. Starting point for the analysis are the long-term scenarios for The Netherlands developed recently by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (WLO scenarios: Future outlook on welfare, prosperity and the human environment). The scenarios describe two base cases: The High and Low scenario. Both scenarios include a consistent set of assumptions on economic development (domestic growth by industry sector and international trade), infrastructure development, fuel prices, and logistic efficiency. The bandwidth of freight forecasts is further explored in five distinctive sensitivity analyses: different development in fuel prices, energy markets, CO2-pricing, dematerialization and modal shift in the port of Rotterdam. The sensitivity analysis provides more insight in the level of importance of each scenario assumption and it can be useful in estimating a bandwidth for freight transport demand. This is valuable in providing insight in the robustness of the freight transport forecasts for policy studies.

Navigating the authority paradox: Practising objectivity in environmental expertise

We empirically reveal how environmental experts interpret the objectivity norm while navigating the authority paradox. The paradox here is that while there is a need for objective scientific advice, such advice is only to be acquired from experts and expert agencies whose objectivity and, hence, authority are contested. Viewed through the lens of practice, we identify what practitioners at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency understand by objectivity. Using this paradigmatic case, we show how practitioners renegotiate the meaning of objectivity while seeking to engage with new policy actors and extended peers in an independent, rigorous and legitimate manner. Successfully navigating the authority paradox is related to skilfully representing and adapting to various meanings of objectivity. Experts and experts agencies accordingly need reflexive skills to recognise which meanings of objectivity they ascribe to and which ones are invoked in public debates. Environmental experts who are able to loosely connect diverse objectivity conceptions are more likely considered as trustworthy and authoritative partners in environmental science-policy interfaces.

Revealing a paradox in scientific advice to governments: the struggle between modernist and reflexive logics within the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

AbstractWhile governmental scientific advisers attempt to innovate their practices to become more reflexive and interactive, they cannot escape the modernist fundaments that constitute these practices. How do governmental scientific advisers make sense of this paradoxical situation? Using the transition process in the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency as a paradigmatic case, this article explores how four actor groups—the PBL management team, clients, PBL practitioners and external peers—involved in PBL’s transition process disclose their views on institutional redesign and, while doing that, express their beliefs on what they think scientific advice “is” and “should do”. Frame analysis identifies three coexisting frames of PBL’s (future) role and identity—PBL as integrated assessment specialist, PBL as think tank and PBL as trustworthy expert. Implicated in these frames are reflexive beliefs in a “professional culture of humility” that seem to replace the modernist “science speaking truth to power” mode of advising in the PBL organization. At the same time modernist beliefs in the science/politics demarcation, objectivity and scientific privilege persist, in part by revisiting them in view of the newly found reflexive principles of humility, transparency and deliberation. In conclusion, this empirical work illustrates how questioning and deliberating about the role and identity of one’s own organization is the first step to advance institutional redesign in scientific advice to governments. The challenge for governmental science advisers is to “translate” processes of institutional redesign into concrete social and cultural changes, bringing about a transformation in conceptions of what scientific advice is and should do all along. This article is published as part of a thematic collection on scientific advice to governments.

The reflective futures practitioner: Balancing salience, credibility and legitimacy in generating foresight knowledge with stakeholders

This paper explores how foresight researchers involved in environmental, nature and planning issues attempt to balance salience, credibility and legitimacy while generating knowledge in interaction with policy-makers and other social actors. Engaging stakeholders in foresight processes can increase the robustness of foresight knowledge, broaden the spectrum of issues addressed, and create ‘ownership’ of the process. While in foresight practices stakeholder participation becomes more and more popular to resort to as enabling factor for generating salient, legitimate and credible foresight knowledge, participation can also compromise these qualities. We analysed two foresight projects conducted at the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, one that developed future visions for Dutch nature policy and another that focused on future pathways for Dutch urban sustainable development policy. We illustrate that the dynamics of the research setting – changes in the socio-political context and the internal dynamics of the participatory efforts – complicated the balancing process. We conclude that one of the main challenges for futures practitioners is, therefore, to work within the dynamics of the research setting, and to position themselves strategically in this setting; by acting as ‘reflective futures practitioners’.

Smart specialisation in the tangled web of European inter-regional trade

Purpose– The purpose of this paper is to present a new methodology to assess the outward connectivity among regional economies in the European Union (EU) and derives policy lessons for the design of regional innovation and competitiveness-enhancing strategic frameworks, with particular reference to research and innovation strategies for smart specialisation (RIS3).Design/methodology/approach– The authors study the network of inter-regional trade flows in the EU25 in the year 2007. Trade data are taken from the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency database and mapped onto weighted directed networks in which the nodes represent regions and the links are flows of goods. The authors measure several structural characteristics of the networks, both global properties and centrality indicators describing the position of individual regions within the system.Findings– European regions appear to be mostly integrated in the European single market. Strengths and weaknesses of individual regions are discussed based on rankings obtained from network centrality indicators. Specific policy implications in the context of RIS3 are derived in the case of the Spanish region of Andalusia.Practical implications– The authors show the potential of the methodology for providing a new family of indicators of the external connectivity of regional economies that can be used by regions wishing to develop their own RIS3 for 2014-2020, as required by the EU in the context of the new cohesion policy framework.Originality/value– The characteristics of a EU-wide inter-regional network of trade flows are obtained and thoroughly discussed for the first time. A unique and original instrument suitable for inter-regional comparison is developed and tested.

Innovating the IPCC review process—the potential of young talent

There is significant potential in young talent for enhancing the credibility of the scientific assessments such as the IPCC’s by contributing to quality assurance and quality control. In this essay, we reflect on an experiment that was done by the Dutch government as part of its government review of a contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). In an effort to review the entire Working Group II contribution to the AR5 within the official review period for the Second Order Draft (SOD), the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency turned to PhD students. This article shows that a systematic review focusing on transparency and errors of a large scientific assessment document using young talented scientists can be successful if certain conditions are met. The reviewers need to have intrinsic motivation to conduct the review. There needs to be a communication plan that fosters engagement and a clear methodology to guide the reviewers through their task. Based on this experiment in review, we reflect on the wider potential for openness and crowdsourcing in scientific assessment processes such as the IPCC’s.