Patterns Of Population Change Research Articles

Depopulation and Residential Dynamics in Teruel (Spain): Sustainable Housing in Rural Areas

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of depopulation and residential dynamics in Teruel, a province emblematic of the aging and depopulation issues prevalent in many inland regions of Spain and Europe. Through an in-depth examination utilizing official statistics, academic studies, and reports, this study highlights the demographic structure, historical evolution, and current trends in Teruel. Key patterns of population change and their implications for urban and rural planning are identified. The analysis covers population density, vital balances, and household distribution, with a special focus on the significant role of the foreign population. Additionally, the challenges associated with vacant housing and the management of unused land are discussed, proposing revitalization strategies for the built environment in rural settings through sustainable housing initiatives. This study aims to contribute to the discourse on sustainable development of small cities and rural areas, offering integrated solutions that not only enhance living conditions but also encourage balanced and sustainable growth.

Геоэкологический анализ качества среды обитания русской выхухоли (Desmana moschata) на территории Хопёрского заповедника для сохранения её численности

The main purpose of the article is to make geoecological analysis of the habitat quality of the Russian muskrat on the territory of specialized protected areas. Based on the collected statistical indicators on the territory of the Khopyor State Nature Reserve, a correlation analysis was carried out between the number of muskrats, climatic and hydrological factors of its habitat, as well as the possible influence of predators on the number of muskrats. Patterns of population change on the territory of the Khopyor State Nature Reserve have been revealed. The optimal ratios of the muskrat habitat comfort have been determined. The necessity of improving the geoecological monitoring of the Russian muskrat and its habitat is proved.

Explaining changes in US residential segregation through patterns of population change

Explaining changes in US residential segregation through patterns of population change

An Attempt to Extract Population Change Patterns by Unifying Past and Future Data

An Attempt to Extract Population Change Patterns by Unifying Past and Future Data

Using POI and multisource satellite datasets for mainland China's population spatialization and spatiotemporal changes based on regional heterogeneity

Geospatial big data and remote sensing data are widely used in population spatialization studies. However, the relationship between them and population distribution has regional heterogeneity in different geographic contexts. It is necessary to improve data processing methods and spatialization models in areas with large geographical differences. We used land cover data to extract human activity, nighttime light and point-of-interest (POI) data to represent human activity intensity, and considered differences in geographical context to divide mainland China into northern, southern and western regions. We constructed random forest models to generate gridded population distribution datasets with a resolution of 500 m, and quantitatively evaluated the importance of auxiliary data in different geographical contexts. The street-level accuracy assessment showed that our population dataset is more accurate than WorldPop, with a higher R2 and smaller deviation. The improved datasets provided broad potential for exploring the spatial-temporal changes in grid-level population distribution in China from 2010 to 2020. The results indicated that the population density and settlement area have increased, and the overall pattern of population distribution has remained highly stable, but there are significant differences in population change patterns among cities with different urbanization processes. The importance of the ancillary data to the models varied significantly, with POI contributing the most to the southern region and the least to the western region. Moreover, POI had relatively less influence on model improvement in undeveloped areas. Our study could provide a reference for predicting social and economic spatialized data in different geographical context areas using POI and multisource satellite data.

Internal migration and settlement patterns in Australia's regional urban centres

AbstractThe distribution of population between metropolitan regions and their rural counterparts is a topic of interest, due to the growth pressures in large cities and areas of decline in some, typically remote regions. In Australia, fostering population growth in regional urban centres (RUCs) has been a long‐term goal of government policy. Understanding the different profiles, structures, and population dynamics of Australia's RUCs is critical in informing Australian regional development, as well as factors in regional population dynamics in general. This research is focused on patterns of population change through internal migration across Australian RUCs. In addition to a detailed spatial analysis of patterns of population migration flows, this research offers a comprehensive analysis of a range of regional social, economic and infrastructure development factors and their effects on regional migration and population changes. The outputs of the method are new evidence to inform the future regional plan to increase economic and population growth in RUCs. This research contributes to population research and regional planning and provides a baseline for the prepandemic status of regional population dynamics in Australia.

Decomposing trends in bird populations: Climate, life histories and habitat affect different aspects of population change

AbstractAimDespite the complexity of population dynamics, most studies concerning current changes in bird populations reduce the trajectory of population change to a linear trend. This may hide more complex patterns reflecting responses of bird populations to changing anthropogenic pressures. Here, we address this complexity by means of multivariate analysis and attribute different components of bird population dynamics to different potential drivers.LocationCzech Republic.MethodsWe used data on population trajectories (1982–2019) of 111 common breeding bird species, decomposed them into independent components by means of the principal component analysis (PCA), and related these components to multiple potential drivers comprising climate, land use change and species' life histories.ResultsThe first two ordination axes explained substantial proportion of variability of population dynamics (42.0 and 12.5% of variation in PC1 and PC2 respectively). The first axis captured linear population trend. Species with increasing populations were characterized mostly by long lifespan and warmer climatic niches. The effect of habitat was less pronounced but still significant, with negative trends being typical for farmland birds, while positive trends characterized birds of deciduous forests. The second axis captured the contrast between hump‐shaped and U‐shaped population trajectories and was even more strongly associated with species traits. Species migrating longer distances and species with narrower temperature niches revealed hump‐shaped population trends, so that their populations mostly increased before 2000 and then declined. These patterns are supported by the trends of total abundances of respective ecological groups.Main ConclusionAlthough habitat transformation apparently drives population trajectories in some species groups, climate change and associated species traits represent crucial drivers of complex population dynamics of central European birds. Decomposing population dynamics into separate components brings unique insights into non‐trivial patterns of population change and their drivers, and may potentially indicate changes in the regime of anthropogenic effects on biodiversity.

Pola Keterkaitan Perubahan Distribusi Kepadatan Vegetasi dengan Penggunaan Lahan DAS Pesisir, Case Study : DAS Garang

<p><em>The diversity and density of vegetation is key in managing sedimentation throughout the watershed, especially in the central and downstream regions. Measures of vegetation diversity and density that can be used are the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) which is a measure of vegetation greenness (chlorophyll levels), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDVI) to measure vegetation wetness levels, and soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) for low canopy vegetation cover. For watersheds that stretch long to downstream or coastal areas, the measure of land diversity needs to be supplemented by using the Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI) indicator that is useful for land use planning. Information on this vegetation index can be obtained by processing a satellite imagery map. The benefits of processing vegetation indexes in watershed management are becoming increasingly important in the era of climate change, especially with regard to efforts to harmonization of relationships between environmental elements that include the diversity of the interests of the resident population. That's why this research was done in order to find the link between natural factors including the impacts of climate change and humans. The test began by looking for changes in the NDVI, NDWI, SAVI, and NDBI indexes from the last 5 years with the Global Indicator Spatial Association (GISA) analysis using Moran's I Global Index, followedby looking for the association with the pattern of population change and the percentage of the area of the settlement. The results showed a link between moran's I Global index change pattern of population change and the spread of residential developments. The tendency of the distribution of this settlement area is an important point in analyzing the influence of its dispersal patterns in a watershed so that the continued impact of potential erosion and sedimentation triggered will be the main consideration in watershed management.</em></p>

Assessing the effectiveness of long‐term monitoring of the Broad‐toothed Rat in the Barrington Tops National Park, Australia

SummaryBiodiversity monitoring is crucial for effective conservation efforts. Effective monitoring allows managers to determine the status and trends of biodiversity, as well as the success of conservation actions. The population of the Broad‐toothed Rats (Mastacomys fuscus) in the Barrington Tops National Park New South Wales, Australia has been monitored since 1999 via scat and live‐trapping surveys. We reviewed the methods used and analysed the data produced with the aim of describing patterns of population change over time using a range of outcome variables and identifying different climate correlates. A secondary aim was to explore the use of population statistics that account for imperfect detection by comparing naïve occupancy, with an index of relative abundance based on trap effort, the latency to find scats during scat surveys and an occupancy model based on trapping surveys. Neither of these three methods accounts for detectability variation. Naïve occupancy decreased slightly over time, while the relative abundance based on trap effort revealed no evidence of change. Additionally, naïve occupancy decreased with increasing temperature while temperature had no clear impact on relative abundance. Finally, precipitation had no impact on either naïve occupancy or relative abundance. We found no evidence of a relationship between the latency to find scats and the index of relative abundance, suggesting that one or neither is related to actual abundance. Finally, a multi‐season occupancy model found occupancy probability to be 0.78 ± 0.23 (standard error); detection probability as 0.51 ± 0.06; seasonal colonisation rate as 0.36 ± 0.13 and seasonal extinction rate at 0.44 ± 0.13. We conclude that despite significant investment in monitoring, this historical data set does not allow managers to ascertain whether population change has occurred and to identify potential drivers of change. Careful consideration of future methods, in particular, whether there is imperfect detection in scat surveys, will help to inform future monitoring.

Monitoring and Analysis of Population Distribution in China from 2000 to 2020 Based on Remote Sensing Data

Accurately and precisely grasping the spatial distribution and changing trends of China’s regional population is of great significance in new urbanization, economic development, public health, disaster assessment, and ecological environmental protection. To monitor and evaluate the long-term spatiotemporal characteristics of the population distribution in China, a population monitoring estimation model was proposed. Based on remote sensing data such as nighttime light (NTL) images, land use data, and data from the fifth, sixth, and seventh censuses of China, the population spatiotemporal distribution in China from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed with a random forest algorithm. This study obtained spatial distribution maps of population density at a 1 km x 1 km resolution in 2000, 2010, and 2020. The results revealed the trend of the spatiotemporal pattern of population change from 2000 to 2020. It shows that: the accuracy assessment using the 2020 census population of townships/streets as a reference shows an R2 of 0.67 and a mean relative error (MRE) of 0.44. The spatial pattern of the population in 2000 and 2010 is generally unchanged. In 2020, population agglomeration is evident in the east, with a slight increase in the proportion of the population in the west. The patterns of population agglomeration and urbanization also change over time. The population spatiotemporal distribution obtained in this study can provide a scientific reference for urban sustainable development and promote the rational allocation of urban resources.

Until the wilting day: an analysis of urban population changes in provincial cities in Thailand from 2010 to 2019

ABSTRACT Population change is an important indicator of city status and can guide urban planning. Based on population changes, each city is categorised as “a growing city,” “a stagnant city,” or “a shrinking city.” Although shrinking and stagnant cities are common, city planning based on the pro-growth paradigm often omits them, causing negative impacts on the performance of urban policy, especially in less-developed countries. To fulfil the limited understanding of the population changes in those countries, this study aims to investigate the population change patterns between 2010 and 2019 using provincial cities in Thailand as a case study. All the provincial cities were categorised based on their annual population change rate. Cluster analysis was performed to categorise sub-clusters based on the status of urban population concentration and its changes. The results reveal that, although Thailand is rapidly urbanising, only 7 out of 76 provincial cities are in the growing city cluster. Most provincial cities are in the stagnant or shrinking city cluster, with urban concentration decline happening as a result. This evidence indicates that several provincial cities may be shrinking. Related government organisations should shift the paradigm of urban management based on population changes.

Childbearing intention and childbearing behavior in low fertility society: evidence from Shanghai

Exploring the patterns of population change under low fertility is a historical mission for demographic research in the 21st century. Taking Shanghai as an example, this paper discusses the new patterns and characteristics of people’s childbearing intention and behavior under low fertility settings. The results show that Shanghai, as a typical society with ultra-low fertility, people’s childbearing intention and behavior demonstrate the characteristics such as “downward inconsistency” between childbearing intention and childbearing behavior, “convergence” of childbearing intention and childbearing behavior between different sub-groups, “inversion” in childbearing intention and childbearing behavior with education and income, and the “decoupling” between marriage and childbearing. The childbearing intention and behavior of low fertility society as seen in the case of Shanghai show the patterns as somehow different from what was observed in a high fertility society. It suggests that many of the childbearing patterns shown in the high-fertility era may not necessarily be applicable in low fertility settings, and urges more research to be carried out in this regard.

Coastal dilemma: Climate change, public assistance and population displacement

• Countries with populations and economic activity concentrated in low-lying coastal regions are vulnerable to sea-level rise. • As the ocean advances inland, millions of coastal inhabitants will have to retreat, either by choice or force majeure. • Linkages among environmental stress, public assistance and population change are assessed for coastal India and Bangladesh. • Compensatory public assistance strongly dampens the migration response to rising environmental stress. • Damage compensation should direct public resources to households that choose to relocate as the coastal threat mounts. Linkages among climate change–related environmental stress, public assistance, and the spatial pattern of population change are assessed for neighboring coastal areas of India and Bangladesh. Environmental stress is measured using historical cyclone impacts, salinization, and land loss from erosion. Household migration decisions are based on current and expected future income streams in different locations. Rising environmental damage raises costs, but it may also induce increased public assistance that moderates or neutralizes those costs, diminishing migration incentives, even in areas hard-hit by climate change. Econometric estimates for the Sundarbans region shared by India and Bangladesh suggest that endogenous public assistance strongly dampens the migration response to rising environmental stress in both countries, though the assistance response and migration dampening are lower in Bangladesh. A broader analysis for the coastal region from India’s Odisha State to eastern Bangladesh finds that present and past cyclone impacts are highly significant for explaining coastal population changes, although responses are lower in India because of lower environmental stress and greater public-assistance intensity. A counterfactual simulation suggests that, as a result of cyclones since 1970, the affected regions are 8–10% less populous in Bangladesh but only 2% less populous in India. The paper’s findings motivate a discussion of the implications for alternative policy regimes as land erosion increases, and sea-level rise and salinization continue with climate change. After comparing the efficiency and equity of regimes that provide universal damage compensation or leave coastal households to fend for themselves, the paper suggests an alternative approach that focuses public resources on compensation for households that choose to relocate as the coastal threat mounts.

PENDEKATAN EKO-SOSIO SISTEM DALAM PENGELOLAAN POTENSI BANJIR KOTA SEMARANG

The diversity and density of vegetation is key in managing flood throughout the watershed, especially in the central and downstream regions. Measures of vegetation diversity and density that can be used are the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) which is a measure of vegetation greenness (chlorophyll levels), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDVI) to measure vegetation wetness levels, and soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) for low canopy vegetation cover. For watersheds that stretch long to downstream or coastal areas, the measure of land diversity needs to be supplemented by using the Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI) indicator that is useful for land use planning. Information on this vegetation index can be obtained by processing a satellite imagery map. The benefits of processing vegetation indexes in watershed management are becoming increasingly important in the era of climate change, especially with regard to efforts to harmonization of relationships between environmental elements that include the diversity of the interests of the resident population. That's why this research was done in order to find the link between natural factors including the impacts of climate change and humans. The test began by looking for changes in the ND VI, ND WI, SA VI, and NDBI indexes from the last 5 years with the Global Indicator Spatial Association (GISA) analysis using Moran's I Global Index followed by looking for the association with the pattern of population change and the percentage of the area of the settlement. The results showed a link between Moran's I Global Index change pattern of population change and the spread of residential developments. The tendency of the distribution of this settlement area is an important point in analyzing the influence of its dispersal patterns in a watershed so that the continued impact of potential erosion, sedimentation, and flooding triggered that will be the main consideration in watershed management.

Explicit incorporation of spatial variability in a biomass dynamics assessment model

Abstract The sustainable management of fisheries has largely relied on stock assessment models that assume stocks are homogeneous throughout their domain. However, ignoring complex underlying spatial patterns can lead to increased risk of failures in management. Utilizing geostatistical approaches in conjunction with a traditional fishery biomass dynamics model, we develop a spatially-explicit modelling framework that treats the underlying population dynamics as spatial processes. Simulation experiments demonstrate that this approach reliably estimates variance parameters and accurately captures true patterns of population change. We further demonstrate the utility of our modelling framework in a real setting using data from the Canadian Maritimes Inshore Scallop Fishery. The model captures time-varying spatial patterns in both population characteristics and fishing pressure without explicit knowledge of the underlying mechanisms and retains the ability to scale up to the whole spatial domain with less associated uncertainty than for temporal models. These results lead to improved scientific advice for management, future-proofing of the assessment to shifts in stock productivity and fishing effort, and provide information that can be used to develop more effective management approaches.

Dynamics of montane vole (Microtus montanus) populations in set-asides, field margins, and orchards: Keystone or pest species?

Voles of the genus Microtus are major small mammal species responsible for feeding damage to agricultural crops in Europe and North America. Microtus also occupy non-crop habitats such as field margins, hedgerows, edges, riparian zones, set-asides, and fallow fields where the conundrum of “keystone species” vs. “pest species” arises. We ask if montane vole (M. montanus) populations will occupy small set-asides and potentially move into field margins adjacent to tree fruit orchards during periods of high numbers? In replicated sites in south-central British Columbia, Canada, in 2009–2012, we tested the hypotheses (H) that (H1) small (0.25 ha) perennial grassland sites would be high-quality habitat for voles and generate a multi-annual population fluctuation in abundance; (H2) voles will follow the same population pattern in set-asides and field margins; and (H3) voles occurring in set-aside and field margins will disperse into adjacent tree fruit orchards. In set-asides, voles increased to a mean peak population of 290 voles/ha and then declined to 50/ha thereby providing support for H1. Montane voles generally followed the same pattern of population changes in set-asides and field margins thereby supporting H2. A much reduced abundance of voles in field margins was likely owing primarily to the areal versus linear extent of the two habitats as both had similar mean abundance of herbs, thatch, and structural diversity. Vegetation management in orchards contributed to very low numbers of voles, and hence no relationship in population pattern with the set-asides. Movement of voles from set-asides to field margins was low and from set-asides and field margins to orchards was almost negligible, thereby providing no support for H3. There was no feeding damage to crop production during winter periods. Conservation of even small (0.25 ha) set-asides of perennial grasslands may provide high-quality habitat for fluctuating populations of montane voles without necessarily impacting crop production in adjacent orchards that have appropriate vegetation management. Microtus species may be considered keystone architects of biodiversity in at least some agricultural contexts.

High uncertainty over the future of tidal marsh birds under current sea-level rise projections

Sea-level rise (SLR) is projected to increase dramatically with profound effects on tidal marshes, yet uncertainty stemming from underlying climate change scenarios, model specifications, and temporal scale is a major hurdle to conservation planning. We compared likely effects of SLR for 2030 and 2050 under static inundation and dynamic response model predictions for the northeastern USA, where tidal marshes experience elevated rates of SLR compared to global averages. Static inundation and dynamic response models of SLR, which differ in how they incorporate uncertainty associated with local processes and biophysical feedbacks, have historically been applied at different scales, and generally differ in spatial and temporal predictions of marsh vulnerability. We used population estimates for five tidal marsh bird species of conservation concern to predict patterns of population change for each SLR model and examined how uncertainty affects planning decisions for these species. Static inundation and dynamic response models differed markedly in their predictions for 2030, yet both models predicted with reasonable certainty that only 10–15% of tidal marsh in northeastern USA is likely (> 66% chance; as defined by the IPCC) to remain by 2050. Most (85–90%) of the marsh is predicted to be as likely as not (33–66% chance) to disappear, representing high potential for the loss of habitat for > 85% of current populations of four of the five bird species. We propose a planning approach using guidelines established by the IPCC to categorize uncertainty associated with marsh loss due to SLR and apply it to prioritize key sites for preservation.

North American Breeding Bird Survey status and trend estimates to inform a wide range of conservation needs, using a flexible Bayesian hierarchical generalized additive model

AbstractThe status and trend estimates derived from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) are critical sources of information for bird conservation. However, the estimates are partly dependent on the statistical model used. Therefore, multiple models are useful because not all of the varied uses of these estimates (e.g., inferences about long-term change, annual fluctuations, population cycles, and recovery of once-declining populations) are supported equally well by a single statistical model. Here we describe Bayesian hierarchical generalized additive models (GAMs) for the BBS, which share information on the pattern of population change across a species’ range. We demonstrate the models and their benefits using data from a selection of species, and we run full cross-validation of the GAMs against 2 other models to compare the predictive fit. The GAMs have a better predictive fit than the standard model for all species studied here and comparable predictive fit to an alternative first difference model. In addition, one version of the GAM described here (GAMYE) estimates a population trajectory that can be decomposed into a smooth component and the annual fluctuations around that smooth component. This decomposition allows trend estimates based only on the smooth component, which are more stable between years and are therefore particularly useful for trend-based status assessments, such as those by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. It also allows for the easy customization of the model to incorporate covariates that influence the smooth component separately from those that influence annual fluctuations (e.g., climate cycles vs. annual precipitation). For these reasons and more, this GAMYE model is a particularly useful model for the BBS-based status and trend estimates.

A Demographic Lifeline? Immigration and Hispanic Population Growth in Rural America

Can immigration save rural and small town America? Our goal is to highlight the new racial dynamics of population change in nonmetropolitan areas, where slowing population growth rates since 1990 eventuated in widespread depopulation during the post-2010 period. We use 3141 counties as the unit of analysis, tracking population change data over the 1990 to 2017 period. Our results, based on decennial census counts and population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, show that Hispanic population growth has been spatially ubiquitous, occurring in both declining and growing nonmetropolitan counties. Hispanic growth has slowed but not reversed chronic declines in rural population. Significantly, the growth of Latinos benefited a majority of historically depopulating or declining nonmetropolitan counties as well as nonmetropolitan counties that have continued to grow. Our analyses also reveal substantial heterogeneity in patterns of population change in nonmetropolitan America. Latino population growth often makes the difference between overall county population growth and decline. Nearly 200 nonmetropolitan counties grew during the 2010–2017 period, but only because Hispanic population increases offset non-Hispanic population declines. For these counties, which account for about 10 percent of all nonmetropolitan counties, Latinos clearly provided a demographic lifeline. Hispanics population gains were usually insufficient to reverse population declines in historically depopulating counties but nevertheless slowed the pace of decline. Hispanic growth was greatest in counties where the population was growing, resulting in a demographic multiplier effect.

Can protected areas buffer short-term population changes of resident bird species in a period of intensified forest harvesting?

Protected areas (PAs) should maintain populations of focal species, but their ability to achieve this target is affected both by land use outside PAs and by climate warming. To study effects of land use on species and ability of PAs to maintain populations of species, we compared trends in abundance of 15 resident bird species between two periods of relatively stable and increasing logging volume in boreal forests in Finland, in 2006–2011 and 2012–2018, respectively. We studied trends in abundance of forest birds in unprotected areas and in PAs, where logging is not allowed. In general, patterns of population changes did not differ between PAs and unprotected areas. Abundances of ten of the 15 species were, however, concentrated in southern Finland, where PAs have low coverage, and where trends in abundance merely reflect changes in unprotected areas. Five species declined, and they all probably suffered from the effects of increased logging. Four of them had a southern distribution in Finland, so they should even benefit from the rapid climate warming occurring in these regions. In northern Finland, PAs cover a much higher proportion of land than in southern Finland, and thus PA network may better maintain populations, which was also reflected in more stable populations of species therein. For populations to persist in PAs and for PAs to buffer against environmental changes, a PA network should have a high level of coverage as in northernmost Finland thus supporting Aichi Target 11.