Interstate Migration Patterns Research Articles

Estimating Sickle Cell Disease Prevalence By State: A Model Using US-Born and Foreign-Born State-Specific Population Data

Introduction: Epidemiological data on sickle cell disease (SCD) in the United States is incomplete, particularly at the state level. Current national prevalence estimates do not include SCD cases among people who migrate to the US from high prevalence areas and may result in an underestimation of the size of the prevalent population. To account for this gap, we constructed an epidemiological model that extrapolates SCD prevalent cases based on both US- and foreign-born populations in each state for 2021. Methods: The total US SCD prevalent cases were estimated by the sum of US- and foreign-born SCD cases for each state. The US-born SCD cases in each state were calculated by applying the prevalence rates derived from new-born-screening studies to the US-born population. The foreign-born SCD cases were calculated by applying the average SCD prevalence rate from the literature for the Caribbean, Western Africa, and Middle and Southern Africa to the corresponding foreign-born populations of each state. These regions were selected due to their high endemic rates of SCD and availability of data required for the extrapolation. Other countries with high prevalence of SCD, such as other African regions, Middle Eastern countries, India, and Brazil, were not included in the analysis due to data limitations. Considering that people with SCD may have a lower propensity to migrate than the general population from these regions, we conservatively assumed that 25% of the total expected population of foreign-born SCD patients in each state would migrate to the US. The migration likelihood adjustment of 25% was based on benchmarking against state-specific SCD prevalence data published by the CDC and other modeling studies. A scenario with no migration adjustment was also explored. Results: The model estimates that the total number of SCD cases in 50 states and Washington D.C. in the US was 120,156 cases in 2020, with 87% of the cases from the US-born population and 13% of the cases from immigrants from the Caribbean, Western Africa, and Middle and Southern Africa. Florida (13,886 cases), New York (11,715 cases), Texas (9,416 cases), Georgia (7,088 cases), and Maryland (5,812 cases) have the highest SCD burden. In nine states, prevalent SCD cases increased by more than 25% when the non-US-born SCD population is included. The proportion of total SCD cases attributable to immigrants varies widely by state (0-73%). When not adjusting for migration likelihood, the estimate of SCD prevalent cases in the US was 167,484 cases. Conclusion: The prevalence of SCD and other hemoglobinopathies is growing in the US due to changing migration patterns. The total number of SCD prevalent cases estimated by the model is higher than the frequently cited national estimate of ~100,000 cases. We account for the difference by considering SCD cases from the immigrant population, which was lacking in previous national-level epidemiology estimates that use new-born screening methods. Implications of undercounting SCD cases is significant when considering healthcare resource planning. While the CDC's Sickle Cell Data Collection (SCDC) program is undertaking a significant effort to better understand SCD prevalence at the state level, the scope of the program does not include all US states. More research is needed to obtain accurate and up-to-date SCD epidemiology in the US. Limitations: This extrapolation is limited by the accuracy of the US-born and foreign-born populations census reporting. US-born SCD prevalent cases may be underestimated as the new-born screening-based SCD prevalence used in the analysis may be outdated. The extrapolation only included the foreign-born population from three regions, which may underestimate SCD prevalent cases. This model does not account for inter-state migration patterns.

Regional Divergence and House Prices

This paper develops a model of the U.S. housing market that explains much of the time series of rents and house prices since World War II. House prices depend on expectations of future rents. We show that rents are tied to regional income inequality, and therefore, house prices are determined by how much faster incomes are growing in richer regions. This theory also matches many cross-sectional facts, including regional variation in rents and prices, differing house price sensitivities to national trends, patterns of inter-state migration, and surveys of income expectations. An industry shift-share instrument provides causal evidence for our channel. The model implies that while interest rates have an ambiguous effect on house price levels, low rates increase house price volatility.

State-Scale Immigration Enforcement and Latino Interstate Migration in the United States

In the late 2000s, several U.S. states and local governments enacted legislation to make work and life difficult for unauthorized immigrants within their jurisdictions. We investigate how these devolved immigration enforcement laws affected the migration of Latinos to these states. We find that after these hostile policies came into effect, noncitizen and naturalized Latinos from states without such policies were much less likely to move to states with them than in the 1990s. U.S.-born Latinos exhibit migration aversion to hostile states, albeit at a weaker level. Fear of discrimination and the blending of Latinos with different legal status within families might account for this broad Latino group migration response. Hostile policies produced no significant change in the interstate migration patterns of a control group of U.S.-born whites. A counterfactual analysis indicates that absent these enforcement regimes, the migratory redistribution of Latinos to hostile states from other states in the late 2000s would have continued the dispersive pattern of the late 1990s. We draw parallels between our research and state policy effects on U.S. internal migration for other groups.

Regional disadvantage? Employee non-compete agreements and brain drain

A growing body of research has documented the local impact of employee non-compete agreements, but their effect on interstate migration patterns remains unexplored. Exploiting an inadvertent policy reversal in Michigan as a natural experiment, we show that non-compete agreements are responsible for a “brain drain” of knowledge workers out of states that enforce such contracts to states where they are not enforceable. Importantly, this effect is felt most strongly on the margin of workers who are more collaborative and whose work is more impactful.

Patterns of Interstate Migration in the Mid-2000s: Are Racial Groups Moving in Different Directions?

Patterns of Interstate Migration in the Mid-2000s: Are Racial Groups Moving in Different Directions?

The case of state funded higher education scholarship plans and interstate brain drain

This paper studies the impact of state funded higher education scholarship plans on interstate migration patterns of college educated individuals between 1980 and 2009. We find that these plans increase the in-state enrollment rate, but have no positive impact on the subsequent number of graduates. While aggregate migration trends remain unaffected as a result of these plans, we find the out-migration rate of young college educated individuals decreases 3 to 5years after the adoption of a plan, but this effect is countered by an increase in the out-migration of older college educated adults in later years.

Patterns of Interstate Migration in the United States from the Survey of Income and Program Participation

The authors describe the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) as a data source for migration studies. The SIPP is a panel dataset that provides information on income, employment outcomes, and participation in government programs. Survey participants are interviewed for up to four years even if they move to a new household or that household migrates within the United States. This unique longitudinal design gives the survey a strong advantage over traditional data sources. The authors illustrate differences in the propensity for interstate migration among differ ent demographic groups over the 12-year period from 1996 to 2008. They also analyze the rela tion ship between migration choices and life-changing events, such as becoming jobless or dissolu tion of a marriage. Their findings suggest that future research should consider the migration choices of individuals near retirement age. (JEL J11, J24, J61, R23)

The Influence of Booms and Busts in the U.S. Economy on the Interstate Migration System

ABSTRACTMigration flows around the U.S. have shown a great deal of temporal and geographical differentiation over the past few decades. However, the recent downturn in the U.S. economy provides a renewed motivation to explore the relationship between the macro‐economy and interstate migration. To address this issue, in this paper patterns of interstate migration are analyzed using IRS data and several migration efficiency measures for 18 2‐year time periods, 1988–2006. Included in the analysis is an examination of the relationship between system migration and economic change, structural changes in the migration system over time (national and state level), and changes in the geography of state‐level migration efficiency rates. As might be expected, the two full business cycles that occurred over this time period saw significant short‐term changes in migration flows, although the economic downturn of 2001‐02 may indicate more fundamental changes in the migration system.

How Can Electoral Success be Sustained by a 'Lagging Development' Regime? Population, Economy and Society in West Bengal Since the 1970s

West Bengal, a major state of eastern India, is conspicuous not only for being ruled by an elected Leftist coalition - so-called Left Front - uninterruptedly for about last three decades (often described as sound 'political stability'), but also for its widely acknowledged successes in fertility transition, execution of redistributive land reform and political decentralization programs. Ironically, however, the state, in almost all comparative assessments of social, human, infrastructural developments - typically stands to occupy a clearly lagged position vis-a-vis many other states, especially in the south and even against all-India records on many key indicators. This paper seeks a clue to this by comprehensively evaluating West Bengal's relative performance in demographic and socio-economic transformation. A well-disciplined grassroots political mobilization network and machinery of the Left Front parties has been highly instrumental for comparatively fast declines of fertility and population growth rates and for lasting political stability in an otherwise 'laggard' infrastructural, social and human development regime. However, a government geared overwhelmingly to ensuring mass electoral support via grassroots mobilization network and priority, with a relative neglect of social and economic infrastructure and human development, is likely from longer-term perspective to be stifled by major backlashes, of which one form could be adverse patterns of inter-state migration.

Interstate Migration Flows in Germany Since Unification: Temporal and Spatial Patterns

Two American geographers analyze German interstate migration patterns during the period following unification of former West and East Germany (1990-2003). A specific focus of the analysis is the extent to which migration patterns established immediately following unification have changed over the ensuing years. The paper presents a variety of complementary analyses to establish the temporal and geographic patterns of German domestic migration and discusses possible reasons for the seemingly surprising stability of migration patterns throughout the period. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: J61, O15, R23. 1 figure, 9 tables, 35 references, 3 appendices.

Assessing changes in interstate migration patterns of the United States elderly population, 1965-1990

This study examines temporal changes in elderly interstate migration in the United States. All of the interstate movers who were 60 and over are selected from the Public Use Micro-Samples (PUMS) of the 1970, 1980 and 1990 censuses, and three interstate mobility tables are constructed. A triply-constrained gravity model is used to compare the propensities of moving to southern destinations while controlling population sizes for origins, destinations and sample years. The results show that the propensity for moving from cold regions to warm regions has declined by 2.5% since 1980. Elderly migrants from the major retiree-sending regions have begun to lose their ties to the popular southern migration destinations (e.g. Florida, Arizona, California), and, for the most part, this process started in the late 1980s. However, unlike the temporal pattern of the United Kingdom, where elderly migrants have started to move to various inland destinations, US states that registered a persistent gain in the share of elderly migrants are still in the south or southwest, and they are the new competitors to the traditionally established retirement destinations. Newly emergent interstate elderly migration trends can be characterised as geographically focused decline and focused growth. Even though this trend has not caused a reduction in the number of elderly movers to the traditional retirement magnet states, it may result in the saturation of long-term care facilities in the traditional retirement states while causing shortages in new retirement states. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessing changes in interstate migration patterns of the United States elderly population, 1965–1990

This study examines temporal changes in elderly interstate migration in the United States. All of the interstate movers who were 60 and over are selected from the Public Use Micro-Samples (PUMS) of the 1970, 1980 and 1990 censuses, and three interstate mobility tables are constructed. A triply-constrained gravity model is used to compare the propensities of moving to southern destinations while controlling population sizes for origins, destinations and sample years. The results show that the propensity for moving from cold regions to warm regions has declined by 2.5% since 1980. Elderly migrants from the major retiree-sending regions have begun to lose their ties to the popular southern migration destinations (e.g. Florida, Arizona, California), and, for the most part, this process started in the late 1980s. However, unlike the temporal pattern of the United Kingdom, where elderly migrants have started to move to various inland destinations, US states that registered a persistent gain in the share of elderly migrants are still in the south or southwest, and they are the new competitors to the traditionally established retirement destinations. Newly emergent interstate elderly migration trends can be characterised as geographically focused decline and focused growth. Even though this trend has not caused a reduction in the number of elderly movers to the traditional retirement magnet states, it may result in the saturation of long-term care facilities in the traditional retirement states while causing shortages in new retirement states. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Race and Primary, Return, and Onward Interstate Migration

This paper uses the U.S. 1990 Public Use Micro Sample to characterize the 1985-1990 primary, return, and onward interstate migration patterns for blacks and whites. The classification of these three types of migration is based on the state of birth and state of residence at the start and end of the census interval. Major migration streams, migration rates, and net migration are evaluated for each migrant type and compared for blacks and whites. Overall, the migration patterns of blacks resemble those of whites, with an attraction to the South and the Southwest and movement out of the Northeast and the Midwest. Some differences were observed, however, between the two races. Return migration rates were somewhat higher for black migrants as compared with whites, and onward migration rates were lower. Black primary out-migrants represented a larger proportion of the total flows from the southern states as compared with white out-migrant flows, and they represented a larger share of the out-migrants from the rust belt states. The major migration streams also had different regional and national patterns by race and migrant type.

Immigration, Welfare Magnets and the Geography of Child Poverty in the United States

This study presents a detailed look at the immigration and internal migration dynamics of child poverty for US States based on the 1990 US census. It assesses the impact of two policy-relevant factors on the migration of poor children across States: (1) the role of high immigration levels as a potential “push” for native-born and longer-term resident poor children whose parents may be reacting to the economic competition or social costs in high immigration States; and (2) the role of State AFDC benefits as a potential “pull” for poor children who migrate with their parents to States with higher benefit levels. The results make plain that the interstate migration patterns of poverty children differ from those of nonpoverty children, especially among whites and blacks. Female-headed households show different inter-state migration patterns than those in married-couple households. However, a multivariate analysis which includes standard state-level economic attributes provides more support for an “immigration push” than for a “welfare magnet pull” in affecting the inter-state migration of poor children. The findings also show a demographic displacement of poor children occurring in high immigration States where the net out-migration of poor children is more than compensated by larger numbers of new immigrant children in poor families with different demographic attributes. Because of these migration dynamics, the demographic profile of the child poverty population will differ across States, suggesting the need for different strategies toward reducing child poverty at the State level.

Determinants of Elderly Interstate Migration in the United States, 1985-1990

This article applies a three-level nested logit model to the microdata of the 1990 U.S. census to explain the 1985 to 1990 return and onward interstate migration patterns of the elderly aged 65+ by personal factors and state attributes. The elderly were split into three groups defined by age: 65 to 69, 70 to 74, and 75+. Analysis reveals that both return and onward migrants were sensitive to amenity factors, racial similarity, and the distance decay effect, although return migrants were less affected by the distance decay effect than onward migrants. The motivations for a return or onward migration were also observed to vary with respect to age groups, with amenity effects more important for the young elderly. Several personal characteristics also were found to systematically influence the migration choice process, including level of education and marital status.

The Wax and Wane of Interstate Migration Patterns in the USA in the 1980s: A Demographic Effectiveness Field Perspective

The author analyzes the structure of temporal changes in U.S. internal migration over the period 1980-1988 using data from matched income tax returns. "A number of hypotheses are explored about how in-migration and out-migration fields wax and wane, thereby giving rise to the overall shifts in demographic effectiveness measured over the period. The results highlight the characteristics of recent (1980-88) shifts in U.S. internal migration patterns including net migration reversals from strong net in-migration to strong net out-migration for states with significant energy sectors, the stanching of net out-migration from many states of the American manufacturing belt, the turnaround to net in-migration for all of northern New England, and the continuance of highly effective net in-migration to the sunbelt states of Florida, Arizona, and Nevada."

Migration, Race and Ethnicity, 1960–1980

"This article compares racial and ethnic patterns in interstate and interregional migration in the years 1960 to 1980.... This research looks at geographical assimilation--the extent to which patterns of migration and regional distribution of minority groups resemble those of whites. Attention is directed to United States-born Asian Americans, blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans and whites, and attempts to answer the following questions: 1) To what extent do the patterns of interstate migration of these groups resemble one another? 2) To what extent do the regional distributions and patterns of net regional migration of these groups resemble one another?" This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1988 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 3, Fall 1988, p. 495).

Older Veterans — Possible Forerunners of Migration: Migration Patterns of the Elderly Veteran Population Versus the General Elderly Population, 1960-1980

We provide a descriptive comparison of the interstate migration patterns between the general elderly population and the elderly veteran subpopulation for the migration periods 1955-60, 1965-70, and 1975-80. National surveys have shown that, in general, veterans have higher income levels than the general population. Given that high socioeconomic status is associated with long-distance migration, we hypothesize that veterans, as a group, are more mobile and move longer distances when compared with the general elderly population. Additionally, new destination sites are usually discovered by those who have relatively higher socioeconomic status. Thus, it may be that elderly veterans are the forerunners to new destinations.

An Analysis of Interstate Migration in Mexico: Impact of Origin and Destination States on Migration Patterns

Se presentan dos teorías competitivas sobre la migración interestatal utilizando el censo de 1980 de México. Una tesis comparativa económica y un modelo de segmentación económica fueron perfeccionados al incorporar una perspectiva sistema-mundial.

The redistribution of America's older population: major national migration patterns for three census decades, 1960-1980.

Data describing elderly interstate migration patterns were compared for the 1960, 1970, and 1980 censuses. Florida dominates as a destination, and its attractiveness is increasing. Arizona and Texas are also increasing in attractiveness, but California and New Jersey have a decreasing share of elderly migrants. Elderly migrants are becoming even more concentrated in only a few destinations, which makes the impact of the migration patterns on service delivery especially significant in those states.