Pattern Of Grain Production Research Articles

Mismatch between provincial grain production and consumption increased cropland soil erosion in China

Cropland soil erosion is primarily caused by agricultural production and indirectly altered by consumption patterns. A well-developed grain trade system transfers grain products to distant locations, away from their place of origin where soil erosion may have occurred. Evidence-based policies to control soil erosion can be developed by holding consumers responsible for the soil erosion caused by their consumption. However, there have been few systematic studies on cropland soil erosion that is embodied in grain trade. In this study, we estimated the soil erosion intensity (SEI) of grain production in each province of China from 1990 to 2020 by combining the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation and socio-economic statistics. We also constructed an interprovincial grain trade network using linear programming techniques and analyzed the cropland soil erosion associated with the interprovincial grain trade. The results showed a rise in national cropland soil erosion attributed to grain production from 5.36×108 t in 1990 to 7.56×108 t in 2020. In particular, those embodied in interprovincial grain trade increased from 0.94×108 t in 1990 to 3.52×108 t in 2020. Nationally, about 10.72% of soil erosion exports in 2020 was from provinces with lower-than-average SEI, compared to 18.42% in 1990, indicating that current patterns of grain production and consumption are unfavorable for erosion control. Accordingly, measures have been proposed to build a soil erosion control system that includes consumers, such as changing farming practices, optimizing agricultural layout, promoting technology export and establishing a provincial compensation mechanism.

The impact of climate change on China's central region grain production: evidence from spatiotemporal pattern evolution

<abstract> <p>Under the influence of global climate change, the climatic conditions of China's major agricultural regions have changed significantly over the last half-century, affecting regional grain production levels. With its favorable conditions for agricultural activities, China's central region has been a strategic location for grain production since ancient times and has assumed an essential responsibility for maintaining national grain security. However, the key concerns of this study are whether the national grain security pattern is stable and whether it might be affected by global climate change (especially climate instability and increased risks in recent years). Therefore, the present study collected grain production data and used descriptive statistical and geospatial analyses to reveal the trend and spatiotemporal pattern of grain production in China's central region from 2010 to 2020. Then, a further analysis was conducted by combining meteorological data with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to investigate the relationship between spatial differences in the output per unit of the grain sown area (OPUGSA). The findings were as follows: (1) The overall development trend of grain production in China's central region from 2010 to 2020 revealed a positive overall trend in grain production, with notable differences in growth rates between northern and southern provinces. (2) Most regions in the southern part of the central region from 2015 to 2020 showed varying degrees of total output of grain (TOG) and OPUGSA reduction, possibly affected by the effects of the anomalies for global climate change and a strong El Niño effect in 2015. (3) Low-low (L-L) clusters of TOG and OPUGSA indicators were consistently in the northwest part (Shanxi) of the central region, and high-high (H-H) clusters of TOG were consistently in the central part (Henan and Anhui) of the central region, but H-H clusters of OPUGSA were not stably distributed. (4) The fitting results of the GWR model showed a better fit compared to the ordinary least squares (OLS) model; it was found that the annual average temperature (AAT) had the greatest impact on OPUGSA, followed by annual sunshine hours (ASH) and annual precipitation (AP) last. The spatiotemporal analysis identified distinct clusters of productivity indicators. It suggested an expanding range of climate impact possibilities, particularly in exploring climate-resilient models of grain production, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies to bolster resilience and ensure agricultural security.</p> </abstract>

Detecting the Spatial Mismatch of Water Resources and Grain Planting Pattern Changes in China Based on Satellite Data

China has achieved sustained growth in grain production and significant changes in grain patterns since the early 21st century. Meanwhile, the contradiction between the shortage of water resources and the development of agriculture is becoming more and more severe. This study introduced Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity satellite Total Water Storage (TWS) Product to indicate total water storage and calculated the Cumulated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (CNDVI) of cropland as an indicator for grain growth. Based on the continuous satellite data, this paper revealed the spatial mismatch between water resources supply and grain growth pattern in China. The center of gravity of the CNDVI tends to move northwest, while the GRACE TWS data’s center of gravity is in the opposite direction. There were different relationships between GRACE-TWS and CNDVI changes in different zones. We calculated the pixel-wise spatial Pearson Correlation coefficients of TWS and CNDVI. The TWS data and CNDVI data show negative correlation trends in the water-limited areas such as the northern arid-semiarid region and northern China plain, while they show a positive correlation in relatively sufficient water resources in southeast China. According to the results, the changing pattern of grain production in China is likely to cause the depletion of grain production potential in the water-limited regions, while the southeastern regions with higher potential still have more capacity for agricultural production.

Analysis on Mechanism of China’s Grain Production Development and Evolution From 1985 to 2019

China’s grain production has been on a pathway paralleled with urbanization in recent 40 years, from lower efficiency and productivity to the higher ones, and has met complex impact factors and contradiction between sustainable development of farming and urbanization. Spatial-temporal pattern of grain production in China, by total and per capita output, was analyzed through Local Moran’I from 1985 to 2019. Until 2019, the high-output countries were mainly aggregated in the main plains and basins on the third step of China’s terrain and the low-output areas increased in the southeastern coastal regions; the countries with high per capita output almost disappeared and the low areas increased a lot in the central and southern regions Then the impact factors, by total output in the whole country and in grain surplus-shortage regions, were detected and found out through Geodetector. In the whole country, cultivated land areas, agricultural machinery, total meat output and value-added of primary industry not only played important role independently, but also had mutual coupling effect in grain total output. And in the grain surplus regions, major factors were cultivated land areas and value-added of primary industry, while in the grain shortage regions, were labors and market as well as economic factors. Thirdly, factor mechanism of China’s grain production for four types of development orientations, i.e., orientation on production scale, production efficiency and benefit, product quality and economic coordination, were concluded, and the way of grain production in different regions with unique suitability and advantage were expounded.

Spatial Agglomeration Pattern and Driving Factors of Grain Production in China since the Reform and Opening Up

Since the reform and opening up, regional imbalances in the development of market economy and urbanization have significantly changed the spatial agglomeration pattern of grain production (GP) in China. To characterize GP by the yield, we used the gravity center (GC) and standard deviation ellipse (SDE) to investigate the evolution characteristics of the spatial agglomeration pattern of GP and its three major crops with wheat, maize and rice in China, then establish a spatial econometric model to explore the natural and socioeconomic drivers of GP at the national level, at different crops and at different regions. The research results indicate that the GC of GP gradually shifts and expands to the northeast and presents a spatial distribution pattern in a “northeast–southwest” direction. The GC of wheat production mainly expands upwards in the east–west direction. The GC of maize production shifts in a direction that is more consistent with grain production, and there is an expansion trend in the east–west direction, while the GC of rice production has the largest north–south span, and continues to expand upward to the north by the east. The status of grain production in Northeast China and Northwest China is rising and the importance of grain production in the Southeast coastal areas are decreasing. The importance of wheat and corn production in North China continues to strengthen, and Northeast China is becoming more important for rice production, but the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are still important rice producing regions. Changes in GP with significant spatial dependence are jointly affected by many factors, such as natural and socio-economic factors, and there are obvious differences among different food crops and different division regions, with the most prominent positive effects being the multiple crop index (MCI), arable land per capita (AL) and agricultural mechanization (MECH), while economic growth and urbanization are significantly negative.

Changes in China's Grain Production Pattern and the Effects of Urbanization and Dietary Structure

Grain production patterns are the basis of a nation's food security. Since China's reform and opening-up began in 1978, China's urbanization process, driven by rapid social and economic development, has accelerated steadily. During this time, the dietary structure of urban and rural Chinese has also changed significantly. Accordingly, grain production patterns have undergone major changes. First, traditional grain production patterns in the north and the south have changed, and the food production center has shifted toward the north. In 1980, the grain yield of southern provinces accounted for 60% of China's total, while that of northern provinces accounted for 40%. In 2015, the grain yield of southern provinces accounted for 56% of the total, while that of northern provinces accounted for 44%. Second, grain production by regions of the country is “shrinking in the east but expanding in the central regions,” meaning that grain production in eastern coastal provinces has decreased significantly, while that in the central region has expanded. The proportions of the nation's total grain production from the eastern, central and western regions were 38%, 36% and 26%, respectively, in 1980. These had changed to 27%, 46%, and 27%, respectively, in 2015. Third, the spatial centralization of grain production has increased. The total grain yield of 13 major grain-producing provinces and regions in the country accounted for 69.27% of nation's total in 1980, and it had reached 76.18% in 2015, showing that the impact of major grain-producing areas on national food security has increased. The influence of rapid urbanization on grain production areas shows remarkable regional differences. As the level of urbanization has increased, build-up land occupies a large number of high-quality farmland, especially in east coastal provinces and thus the grain planting area decreased obviously. The effect of dietary structure changes on grain production patterns was evident in two ways. On the one hand, as dietary diversity has increased, total grain consumption has decreased. The reduction in the proportion of planting area for grain crops to total crop planting area dropped from 82% in 1980 to 68% in 2015, making this change in total grain consumption evident. On the other hand, the ratio of grain for human consumption declined as the ratio of grain consumed by animals increased. The reduction in the proportion of rice and wheat grown and an increase in the proportion of feed grain production (mostly maize) from 20% in the 1980s to 36% in 2015 makes this change in grain production and consumption evident. In the future, with the establishment of national functional areas for grain production, the spatial pattern of grain production will return, while the demand for feed grains will continue to increase but with the space for expansion limited.

A potential solution for food security in Kenya: implications of the Quzhou model in China

Poor soil fertility due to low nutrient inputs is a major factor limiting grain production in Kenya. Increasing soil fertility for crop productivity in China has implications for food security in Kenya. The purpose of this study was therefore to investigate the historical patterns of grain production, nutrient inputs, soil fertility and policies in Quzhou, a typical agricultural county on the North China Plain, and to compare grain production in Quzhou County and Kenya to identify a potential approach for increasing grain production in Kenya. Grain yields in Quzhou increased from 1 to 3 t·ha⁻¹ between 1961 and 1987 by increasing manure application accompanied by small amounts of chemical fertilizer after soil desalinization. There was a further increase from 3 to 5 t·ha⁻¹ up to 1996 which can be mainly attributed to chemical fertilizer use and policy support. Hence, a beneficial cycle between soil fertility and plant growth in Quzhou grain production was developed and strengthened. In contrast, there was only a slight increase in grain yields in Kenya over this period, resulting from low soil fertility with limited external nutrient inputs, a consequence of poor socioeconomic development. It is suggested that grain yields in Kenya would likely be boosted by the development of a self-reinforcing cycling between soil fertility and plant growth with manure and chemical fertilizer use if supported by policy and socioeconomic development.

Geographical Evolution of Agricultural Production in China and Its Effects on Water Stress, Economy, and the Environment: The Virtual Water Perspective

AbstractAgricultural production is accompanied by a large amount of water consumption, nonpoint source pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the comprehensive and quantitative analysis of associated impacts on regional water, the environment, and the economy caused by variations in agricultural distribution is insufficient. This paper evaluates the evolution of grain production distribution and its effects on water resources, the economy, and the environment in China by using virtual water theory. The results show that the grain production area located in northern China is characterized by scarce water resources and a less developed economy. Due to the imbalance between grain supply and demand, virtual water embedded in grain will transfer among regions. These flows have formed a pattern where virtual water transfers from the water‐scarce northern region to the water‐rich southern region, increasing from 72.99 Gm3 in 1997 to 124.64 Gm3 in 2014. Evolution of grain production distribution changes the spatial pattern of grain production and consumption, and it exacerbates water resource pressure, the gray water footprint, and greenhouse gas emissions in the area that exports grain virtual water. The gray water footprint and carbon emissions in the grain export area increased by 10.66% and 31.06% during the study period, respectively. Meanwhile, the distribution of regional grain production influences the allocation of water resources in agriculture and other industries. Due to the difference between the economic benefits created by industry and agriculture, grain virtual water flow will have effects on the regional economic development.

Spatial–temporal changes in grain input–output and the driving mechanism in China since 1985

ABSTRACTBased on Chinese county-level statistic data, this paper reveals spatial–temporal distribution and changing of grain production, by studying gravity centres of grain input–output regions in China from 1985 to 2009. According to the grain output, per-capita grain consumption, and population, the surplus grain of 2864 counties from 1985 to 2009 was calculated. And the counties with surplus grain value greater than zero and smaller than zero were respectively defined as grain input regions and grain output regions; they were respectively analysed by using the model of grain gravity centre. We found that there are four periods of spatial–temporal changing of gravity centres in grain input regions, and five periods in all output regions. According to the moving path of the gravity centres of input–output regions, 1990 was the turning point of completely entering into ‘grain supply from north to south period’. Spatial–temporal changing of grain-sown area and the arable land was the main driving mechanism for the shift in grain input–output gravity centres. The change of spatial pattern of grain production influenced sustainability of grain production from three impacts. And two policy suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainability of grain production.HIGHLIGHTSUse the method of gravity centres to research the spatial–temporal changing of surplus grain from 1985 to 2009 in China.Analyse the spatial–temporal changing and the driving mechanism of gravity centres of grain input–output from 1985 to 2009 in China.1990 was identified as the turning point of completely entering into ‘grain supply from north to south period’.Summarize the impact of the changes of spatial pattern of grain production on the sustainability of grain production and put forward two proposals.

Sustainability of water resources for agriculture considering grain production, trade and consumption in China from 2004 to 2013

China is a country with a serious water shortage. Irrigation water accounts more than 60% of total water use. With the nation’s population forecasted to peak approximately 2030, the production of food for additional people will require more water resources, which exacerbates water shortages. North China is a typical case for studying water-food nexus because water shortage has become a primary factor in restricting food production. From the perspective of virtual water, the study calculates the changing trend of the virtual water (VW) flow related to grain transfer in China, for which three primary crops of China, including rice, wheat and maize, are considered. The results demonstrate the impact of changing the spatial patterns of grain production on water resource utilization is large, and water resources are redistributed related to grain trade. Northern China imports water-intensive products from southern China and exports water-extensive products, and the VW flow from North to South from 2004 to 2013 was approximately 42.6 billion m3 per year, about 10.2 billion m3 irrigation water was transferred per year which accounts for about 10% of the water consumption for crop production in the North. Although the South–North Water Diversion Project, a mega-engineering scheme constructed from the Yangtze River Basin to the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basins, alleviates water pressure on the North to a certain extent, it is insufficient for exporting to provinces, and water resources for meeting grain production in the North is problematic. Based on the results, this paper suggests that virtual water flow among provinces should be linked to water resource management. The next step in water management should focus on water demand management, rather than increasing crop trade from the North to the South, which is governed by governmental policies and economy.

大农场和小农户：鲁西北地区的粮食生产

The pattern of grain production in northwestern Shandong today is a combination of machinery and labor. The mechanization of plowing, sowing, and harvesting has freed “principal labor units” (i.e., males in their prime) from agriculture, while the relatively labor-intensive operations of applying fertilizer and agricultural chemicals (pesticides and herbicides) and watering still mainly rely on “auxiliary labor” (i.e., women and the elderly), which remains abundant in the countryside. The principal family laborers of households with small farms can thus pursue off-farm work, while auxiliary family labor, which has a lower opportunity cost, can still do the farming and ensure the output of grain. Large farms on the other hand have no incentive to introduce labor-saving machinery to take over what have been labor-intensive operations as long as cheap auxiliary labor is still plentiful. Thus large farms do not have a higher level of mechanization; however, they do have a totally different managerial logic. Their production is driven by capital, which is invested in acquiring land (through land transfers), hiring wage labor, and pursuing profit. In contrast, production in small farms is driven by the family’s labor, pursuing the best division of work between principal and auxiliary family labor and the maximum output per unit of land. The land scarce–labor abundant reality of China requires that agriculture pursue higher output, larger product value, and higher net returns on each unit of land. It is small farms that best meet these requirements. This article is in English. 鲁西北地区的粮食生产呈现出机械和劳动相互结合的模式。耕地、播种和收割环节的高度机械化代替了农业生产中的主劳动力，而相对劳动密集的施肥、打农药和浇水环节，则仍高度依赖农村中依然大量存在的辅助劳动力。对小农户而言，这种模式可以在保证家庭主劳动力外出务工的同时，使用机会成本较低的家庭辅助劳动力实现自家承包地上最大的粮食收入。而对于大农场而言，农村廉价辅助劳动力的存在，使它们并无动力为劳动密集的生产环节引入机械，而是选择使用雇工生产。大农场和小农户的区别，并不在于它们具有更高的机械化程度，而在于它们组织生产的逻辑不同。大农场体现的是资本的逻辑，由资本流转入土地、雇佣劳动力进行生产，追求资本的最大利润。小农户则是围绕家庭劳动的生产，追求主、辅劳动力之间的最佳分工和小块土地的最大产出。中国地少人多的国情要求单位面积土地创造出更大的农产品产出、产值和更高的净收益，是小农户而不是大农场更体现了这种要求。

Spatial-Temporal Changes in Grain Production, Consumption and Driving Mechanism in China

The spatial-temporal patterns of grain production and consumption have an important influence on the effective national grain supply on condition of tight balance in the total grain amount in China. In this paper, we analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of grain production, consumption and the driving mechanism for their evolution processes in China. The results indicate that both gravity centers of grain production and consumption in China moved toward the northern and eastern regions, almost in the same direction. The coordination of grain production and consumption increased slightly from 1995 to 2007 but decreased from 2000 to 2007. There is a spatial difference between the major districts of output increase and the strong growth potential in grain consumption, which indicates an increasing difficulty in improving the regional coordination of grain production and consumption. The movement of the gravity center of grain production is significantly correlated with regional differences in grain production policy, different economic development models, and spatial disparity of land and water resource use. For grain consumption, the main driving factors include rapid urbanization, the upgrade of food consumption structure, and distribution of food industries.

Grain in Fujian: Intra-provincial Patterns of Production and Trade, 1952–1988

Over the past 20 years, studies of grain production and use in China have figured prominently in debates concerning economic efficiency, income disparities and the contours of the Maoist development strategy. Virtually all analysts now agree that grain production in China exhibited a strong tendency toward provincial self-sufficiency and that the inter-provincial grain trade declined during the Maoist era (from the 1950s to 1978), that provincial self-sufficiency obstructed efficient allocation of agricultural resources and contributed to the persistence of poverty, and that the tendency toward selfsufficiency is attributable partly to a policy of “grain first,” which promoted concentration upon grain production in every province regardless of comparative advantage. Recent studies point to significant changes in the pattern of grain production and trade since 1978 and trace these changes to relaxation of “grain first” and introduction of institutional reforms affecting the grain sector.

Resolving conflicting priorities in Ontario agriculture

Changes in global patterns of grain production have affected the profitability of commercial, cash-crop agriculture in North America. The current financial crisis has highlighted a perceived conflict between the priorities of (1) strengthening net farm profit, (2) maintaining the productive potential of the land base, (3) enhancing the health and cohesiveness of the agricultural community, and (4) addressing societal demands for safe foodstuffs. Reducing input costs by reducing the need for privately owned machinery can minimize the scale-dependence of agricultural practices, as illustrated with examples involving silage and intensively managed pasture in Ontario. This approach could improve farming opportunities for nontraditional, part-time farmers, and at the same time, create a niche for professional custom operators and managers. Enhancing the viability of nontraditional farm operations, a historically neglected component of the farming community, as well as commercial farms is viewed as one approach to sustaining and improving both the agricultural land base and the agricultural community. Applying resource-extensive rather than resource-intensive approaches to forage management reveals that these apparently divergent priorities are, in fact, interlocking pieces of the same puzzle.

Ear development and formation of grain yield in winter wheat.

The pattern of grain production of a winter wheat crop and the effect of plant density and time of tiller emergence on grain yield/ear were studied. At harvest, ear size and ear components were ascertained and were discussed in relation to ear growth and ear development during the prefloral and postfloral growing period. Detailed information was obtained on the productivity of ear-bearing tillers and their contribution to final grain yield. Shoot productivity decreased in denser crops; ears were smaller because spikelet differentiation, grain set and grain filling were inadequate. The date that the tiller emerged largely determined its subsequent grain yield. With later tiller initiation and emergence fewer ears were produced. Moreover, these ears were smaller because spikelet initiation, spikelet differentiation, grain set and grain filling were reduced. At low and moderate plant densities, the grain yield of the early-emerged tillers only slightly lagged behind that of main shoots and max. grain yield could be achieved at moderate plant densities. It was concluded that in cereal farming, high and stable grain yields are aims to be achieved. These can be best achieved by having moderate plant densities and applying correct treatments for good crop growth. (Abstract retrieved from CAB Abstracts by CABI’s permission)

Patterns of tillering and grain production of winter wheat at a wide range of plant densities.

The effect of plant density on the growth and productivity of the various ear-bearing stems of winter wheat was studied in detail to obtain information on the pattern of grain production of crops grown under field conditions. Strong compensation effects were measured: a 160-fold increase in plant density (5-800 plants/m2) finally resulted in a 3-fold increase in grain yield (282 to 850 g DM/m2). Max. grain yield was achieved at 100 plants/m2, which corresponded to 430 ears/m2 and to about 19 000 grains/m2. At higher plant densities more ears and more grains were produced, but grain yield remained constant. Tillering/plant was largely favoured by low plant densities because these allowed tiller formation to continue for a longer period and a greater proportion of tillers produced ears. However, at higher plant densities more tillers/unit area were formed and, despite a higher mortality, more ears were produced. The productivity of individual ears, from main stems as well as from tillers, decreased with increasing plant density and with later emergence of shoots. In the range from 5 to 800 plants/m2 grain yield/ear decreased from 2.40 to 1.14 g DM. At 800 plants/m2 nearly all ears originated from main stems, but with decreasing plant density tillers contributed increasingly to the number of ears. At 5 plants/m2, there were 23 ears/plant and grain yield/ear ranged from 4.20 (main stem) to 1.86 g DM (late-formed stems). Grain number/ear was reduced at higher densities and on younger stems, because there were fewer fertile spikelets and fewer grains in these spikelets. At the low density of 5 plants/m2, plants developed solitarily and grain yield/ear was determined by the number of grains/ear as well as by grain wt. Above 400 ears/m2, in this experiment reached at 100 plants/m2 and more, grain yield/ear depended solely on grain number, because the wt. of grains of the various stems were similar. The harvest index showed a max. of about 44% at a moderate plant density; at this density nearly max. grain yield was achieved. At low plant densities the harvest index decreased from 45% in main stems to about 36% in late-formed stems. However, no differences in harvest index existed between the various ear-bearing stems if the number of ears exceeded 400/m2. (Abstract retrieved from CAB Abstracts by CABI’s permission)