Abstract Background Patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) exhibit distinct shifts in circulating metabolite levels that have been associated with clinical disease activity and disease phenotype. However, there are limited data on the impact of metabolomic changes on disease progression in IBD. We aimed to understand the association of circulating metabolite levels and related pathways with the risk of disease progression in patients with IBD. Methods We conducted an observational cohort study using the Mount Sinai Crohn’s and Colitis Registry (MSCCR). Patients were prospectively enrolled with baseline questionnaires and biospecimens that were then linked to longitudinal electronic health record data. A total of 1,456 serum metabolites were measured in 277 patients with UC and 375 patients with CD using untargeted metabolomics. Disease progression was defined as any new steroid or biological prescriptions, IBD-related hospitalizations, or surgery. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models, adjusted for age, sex, smoking, biologic use, and surgery were used to explore metabolite associations with risk of disease progression. Metabolite set enrichment analysis (MSEA) was performed to identify underlying metabolic pathways associated with disease progression. Results During a median 2-year follow-up time (IQR 0.3-5.1 years), 375 patients (57.5%) had a disease progression event. Among CD, 151 metabolites significantly correlated with the composite outcome (FDR<0.1). Of these, 81 (53.6%) were linked to higher risk, mainly enriched in amino acids, purine, and pyrimidine metabolism, fibrinogen cleavage peptides, and bile acid pathways. Additionally, 70 (46.4%) metabolites associated with lower risk with enrichment in fatty acid metabolism, steroid biosynthesis, histidine, tryptophan, and antioxidant pathways. In CD, aspartate metabolism was most significantly associated with increased risk and linoleic metabolism with decreased risk. In UC, 84 metabolites were significantly associated with disease progression (FDR<0.1), with 29 (34.5%) associated with increased and 55 (65.5%) with decreased risk. Metabolic pathways linked to higher risk were sphingolipid, benzoate, hydrogen sulfide, polyamine, and tyrosine metabolism, while protective metabolites were enriched in branched-chain amino acid (BCAA), steroid biosynthesis, histidine, and phenylalanine pathways. In UC, sphingolipid metabolism was prominently associated with increased risk and BCAA metabolism with decreased risk. Conclusion Specific metabolites and metabolic pathways are associated with risk of disease progression in patients with IBD, highlighting potential prognostic metabolite biomarkers and pathways that may be important in modulating risk of disease progression.
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