Path-dependent Process Research Articles

Skill capabilities behind the scenes: the role of occupational portfolio in regional industrial evolution

ABSTRACT An increasing number of studies confirm that regional diversification is path dependent, with new industries building on pre-existing ones. However, these studies typically overlook the role of skill capabilities and the interactions between skills and industries. In this research, based on the concept of industry–occupation cross-relatedness, the influence of skill capabilities on industrial diversification across Chinese regions was investigated. The findings indicate that regions can diversify into skill-related activities following a skill path-dependent process. Furthermore, a theoretical framework integrating industry–occupation cross-relatedness and economic complexity was introduced that enabled the adoption of various diversification strategies based on regional skill capabilities.

Talking about practice: agency and its structural context in regional healthcare practice change

ABSTRACT Ageing societies and rising instances of non-communicable diseases require changes in public healthcare service provision. Despite a plethora of propositions, most innovations never become practically applied. In understanding innovation as a place- and path-dependent change process which depends on actors’ agency to reconfigure routinised practices and their structural context, we show how actors create, perceive and act upon opportunities for change while tracing the development trajectories of two networks in the regions of Murcia (Spain) and Örebro (Sweden), respectively. The cases illustrate the role intermediary actors play in creating opportunities and shaping organisational and institutional context.

Fundamental constraints to the logic of living systems.

It has been argued that the historical nature of evolution makes it a highly path-dependent process. Under this view, the outcome of evolutionary dynamics could have resulted in organisms with different forms and functions. At the same time, there is ample evidence that convergence and constraints strongly limit the domain of the potential design principles that evolution can achieve. Are these limitations relevant in shaping the fabric of the possible? Here, we argue that fundamental constraints are associated with the logic of living matter. We illustrate this idea by considering the thermodynamic properties of living systems, the linear nature of molecular information, the cellular nature of the building blocks of life, multicellularity and development, the threshold nature of computations in cognitive systems and the discrete nature of the architecture of ecosystems. In all these examples, we present available evidence and suggest potential avenues towards a well-defined theoretical formulation.

Unpacking the path-dependent process of academic burden reduction policy in China (1978–2021)

Unpacking the path-dependent process of academic burden reduction policy in China (1978–2021)

Numerical investigation of the path-dependent frost heave process in frozen rock under different freezing conditions

Frost heave in water-bearing rock masses poses significant threats to geotechnical engineering. This paper developed a novel three-dimensional (3D) frost model, based on the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM), to investigate the frost heave process in rock masses where thermal transfer, water migration, water-ice phase transition (ice growth) and ice-rock interaction are explicitly simulated. The proposed model is first validated against existing experimental and analytical solutions, and further applied to investigate path-dependent frost heave behavior under various freezing conditions. Results show that freezing direction plays a vital role in the dynamic ice growth and ice-rock interaction, thus affecting the frost heave behavior. In the top-down freezing regime, ice plugs form first at the crack's top surface, sealing the crack and preventing water migration, which can amplify ice pressure. Parametric studies, including rock Young's modulus, ice-rock friction, and rock hydraulic conductivity, further reveal that the temporal aspects of ice development and rock mechanical response strongly affect ice-rock interaction and hence the frost heave mechanism. Furthermore, some typical phenomena (e.g. water/ice extrusion and frost cracking) can also be well captured in this model. This novel numerical framework sheds new light on frost heave behavior and enriches our understanding of frost heave mechanisms and ice-rock interaction processes within cold environment engineering projects.

South Korea and NATO: from unlikely companions to key partners

Abstract Relations between South Korea and NATO have been deepening at a striking pace recently. Yoon Suk Yeol became the first South Korean president to attend a NATO Summit in 2022 and in the same year, Seoul opened its diplomatic mission to NATO in Brussels. South Korea also became the first east Asian country to join a NATO Centre of Excellence, and started increased consultations with NATO's military staffs. There is a gap in the literature on South Korea–NATO relations which this article aims to fill as it examines the reasons behind the rapidly deepening relations between South Korea and NATO in recent years. To understand the dynamics that triggered the rapid development of South Korea–NATO relations, this article applies Bence Nemeth's theory on defence cooperation which focuses on the interplay of three structural and two situational factors. We argue that the constellation of these factors operating together led the two sides to deepen cooperation organically over almost two decades. Path-dependent processes accrued through prior experiences of collaboration and institutional ‘stickiness’, aided by the positive rapport between leaders in office, allowed the two sides to deepen cooperation when the external environment required it following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Related industries, economic complexity, and regional diversification: An application for Brazilian microregions

This paper contributes to the literature on economic relatedness and diversification in Brazil. It uses firm-level, occupational data to estimate the relationship between regions’ diversification, the degree of relatedness, and economic complexity indexes. Given that the current literature often focuses on a single variable, a new relatedness measure is introduced. It includes three new relatedness dimensions. The co-occupation captures the degree of similarity of firms’ occupations; co-location, considers the geographical proximity of different sectors; and co-company, evaluates if firms operate in more than one sector. Analyzing the evolution of 558 microregions from 2006 to 2016, the study finds that new industries are more likely to enter when technologically related to existing ones, while industries lacking relatedness are prone to exit. The results highlight diversification as a significant path-dependent process. They also underscore the challenges of attracting and retaining new industries, especially those technologically distant or more complex, emphasizing the importance of relatedness in regional economic cohesion.

The Post-war Revival of Canadian Planning: Assessing the Impact of the Community Planning Association of Canada.

The Community Planning Association of Canada (CPAC) advocated for the re-establishment of planning in post-war Canada. During this period, the federal government set reconstruction objectives, and both Central (now Canada) Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and the CPAC were formed. We believe that 1944-1947 was a critical juncture establishing planned suburban development in Canada as a path-dependent process with tremendous momentum into the 21st-century. Using a historical-institutional approach, the role of CMHC and the influence of the CPAC is examined. Analysis relying on extensive archival material demonstrates that the CPAC gave a tremendous push along the path-dependent process of suburbanization.

Unimer suppression enables supersaturated homopolymer swollen micelles with long-term stability after glassy entrapment.

Micelle sizes are critical for a range of applications where the simple ability to adjust and lock in specific stable sizes has remained largely elusive. While micelle swelling agents are well-known, their dynamic re-equilibration in solution implies limited stability. Here, a non-equilibrium processing sequence is studied where supersaturated homopolymer swelling is combined with glassy-core ("persistent") micelles. This path-dependent process was found to sensitively depend on unimer concentration as revealed by DLS, SAXS, and TEM analysis. Here, lower-selectivity solvent combinations led to the formation of unimer-homopolymer aggregates and eventual precipitation, reminiscent of anomalous micellization. In contrast, higher-selectivity solvents enabled supersaturated homopolymer loadings favored by rapid homopolymer insertion. The demonstrated ∼40-130 nm core-size tuning exceeded prior equilibrium demonstrations and subsequent core-vitrification enabled size persistence beyond 6 months. Lastly, the linear change in micelle diameter with homopolymer addition was found to correlate with a plateau in the interfacial area per copolymer chain.

The structure of product space and regional economic resilience in China: towards an evolutionary perspective

ABSTRACT Technology and knowledge play important roles in shaping regional economic resilience and are essential keys to fostering high-quality regional development. The paper utilizes domestic and foreign trade data, as well as economic and social development data, from 2001 to 2016 across 30 provinces in China. It aims to depict the characteristics of regional economic resilience and product space, conducting empirical analysis the impact of structure of knowledge-based product space on regional economic resilience. The objective is to explore how regions can promote structural transformation and economic development through knowledge networks. The study revealed that the relationship between knowledge contained within the product space is the key factor shaping economic resilience, particularly in terms of the existing knowledge nodes and the density between these nodes in the network. Owing to the impact of knowledge proximity, the process of promoting economic resilience through a relatively concentrated knowledge network is a path-dependent process. However, an excessive similarity between knowledge may lead to path locking. Therefore, our emphasis is on the structural relationships among knowledge within the region, providing a valuable an important supplement to the investigation of factors influencing economic resilience in networks.

Innovation ambidexterity in construction firms: external knowledge antecedents and performance consequences

Empirical evidence on the external knowledge search behaviour of construction firms and its effects on innovation ambidexterity (IA) and performance is limited. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of external knowledge sources on IA and the mediating role of IA in the relationship between external knowledge sources and financial performance (FP) in construction firms. It tests the hypotheses developed using survey responses from management personnel in Hong Kong construction firms. The results indicate that knowledge from clients or suppliers has a significant effect on IA. Similarly, knowledge sourced from universities and research institutions has a significant positive impact on IA. However, only knowledge from clients directly affects FP. IA fully mediates the relationships between knowledge from clients, suppliers or universities and research institutions with FP but not the other three sources. While partly validating some existing studies, these findings also extend the current knowledge on the connection between external knowledge sources and IA. This shows how IA can translate external knowledge into financial outcomes, revealing the value of different knowledge sources for firms. The findings provide insights into how construction firms can direct their knowledge searches to enhance ambidexterity and financial outcomes. This study showed the importance of external collaborators for construction firms in achieving IA and FP. It contributes to the theory and practice on the antecedents and outcomes of IA in construction firms and the path-dependent processes to enhance FP through the use of external knowledge to simultaneously pursue exploratory and exploitative innovation.

Shocks, institutional change, and sustainability transitions.

The role of exogenous shocks in influencing transition processes is of significant interest to a wide variety of research in sustainability science (SS). Such events disturb and interrupt path-dependent processes in sociotechnical systems. Sometimes this can lead to radical departures from existing trajectories, while at other times existing systems can be more resilient, adapting, or reconfiguring in response to a shock. In this paper, we explore the role that exogenous shocks can have on institutional change. The sustainability transition literature, as shaped by the multilevel perspective, has usually focused on shocks as windows of opportunity (WoO) where alternatives can break through due to strategic action. We offer the perspective of imprinting, which places primary attention on shocks leading to immediate and irreversible institutional change with long-term consequences. The usefulness of this concept is explored by examining the impact of two major shocks to the energy system: World War II and the 1973 oil crisis. It is concluded that the imprinting concept enables analysis that is attentive to how the underlying institutions of a system can be rapidly and deeply altered by the dynamics of exogenous shocks. It is argued that imprinting is an important complementary concept, next to windows of opportunity, for sustainability science research aiming to understand the period of turbulence we are living through.

What drives network evolution? Comparing R&D project and patent networks in the EU

Abstract Collaboration networks are the main mechanisms through which regional innovation capacities are enhanced. These networks have been analyzed by using data either on research projects or patents. However, analyzing only one type of network can limit our understanding of regional innovation dynamics. In this paper, we investigate the drivers of network evolution in two inter-regional network types within the European Union: R&D project networks and co-patenting networks. Specifically, we examine data on Framework Program project collaborations and patent collaborations at the NUTS2 regional level between 2011 and 2019. Our empirical strategy is based on Stochastic Actor-Oriented Model where we analyze and compare the factors that affect the evolution of two networks. We find that path-dependent processes resulting from past networks, such as triadic closure, preferential attachment, and tie repetition, play a more important role in explaining the evolution of R&D project networks compared with patent networks. On the other hand, regional characteristics, particularly the patenting intensity of a region and similarity in patenting between regions appear to be more influential in shaping patent networks. These results have important implications for the future evolution of knowledge networks in Europe.

Creating a market orientation: An empirical validation of Gebhardt, Carpenter, and Sherry's (2006) Market Orientation Development Process (MODeP)

Gebhardt, Carpenter, and Sherry (2006) suggest that organizations become more market-oriented through a deliberate and path-dependent organizational change process that we call the Market Orientation Development Process (MODeP). However, evidence of the MODeP’s efficacy in creating a market-oriented culture remains sparse beyond the cases described in detail by its authors. In this study, we develop a new instrument to measure an organization's progress in the MODeP. Based on a survey of 333C-level hospital executives, our study provides empirical support for (1) the effectiveness of the MODeP process in creating a market orientation and (2) its path-dependent nature. With this confirmation and the availability of a measurement instrument to monitor the transformation process, we hope to lower the barriers that have hindered research on creating a market orientation. Also, we confirm the validity of the MODeP as a roadmap for senior executives willing to develop a market orientation in their organizations, and we provide a means to implement it.

Queueing networks with path-dependent arrival processes

Queueing networks with path-dependent arrival processes

Structural Racism, the USPS, and Voting by Mail On- and Off-Reservation in Arizona

AbstractDuring the 2020 election, voting by mail greatly expanded due to concerns with COVID-19. While voting by mail is relatively easy for most individuals, who have United States Postal Service (USPS) residential mail service, it is much more difficult for those with nonstandard mail service. In this article, we examine how decisions made by the USPS in the latter part of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries have resulted in deeply entrenched structural inequities in the access to mail services on the Navajo Nation in Arizona when compared to rural nonreservation communities. Most (89 percent) of current Post Offices were established during the settler colonial period, during which sites were chosen primarily to advance military objectives and serve the interests of Anglo-American settlers. The resulting inequitable pattern of postal access remains, resulting in inferior mail service on the Navajo Nation and adversely impacting many aspects of life. Post Offices are fewer and farther from each other on reservation communities; there are fewer service hours; and we show in a mail experiment that letters posted on reservations are slower and less likely to arrive. This research fits within the growing body of American political development research on path-dependent processes and “spatial racism” within geography.

Path dependence in an evolving system: a modeling perspective

AbstractIn recent years, path dependence has gained increasing scientific attention in many disciplines, leading to various new concepts and notations, such as path creation or path plasticity. However, if mathematical arguments are used, they are based on the early works by Brian W. Arthur and Paul A. David, usually referring to the mathematical concept of ergodicity. We extend their mathematical framework and develop a graphical representation of systems that allows for a metaphorical discussion of system behaviors beyond the original cases, especially in evolving systems, and the inclusion of the recently developed concepts within path dependence. Visualizations are used to explain the definition and characteristics of seven types of path dependence: lock-in, path-breaking, path-furrowing, path plasticity, path formation, path creation, and path selection. Although these visualizations are explained verbally and can be understood without a mathematical expertise, a mathematical model is used to generate them. The deduction of the metaphorical concept from a mathematical model guarantees the completeness of the identified processes and the rigor in their categorization as well as the identification of respective characteristics for their distinction. However, the aim of the paper is to provide an illustrative concept that allows researchers to classify and structure the various path-dependent processes they observe in their application. While five of the identified processes are in line with concepts from the literature and are defined accordingly, we also detect a sixth process that is new to the literature so far: path-furrowing. Moreover, slightly deviating from the literature, we define path selection as the possibility to choose a path intentionally, thereby focusing on the mindful choice of options.

The Evolution of Extended Universal Compulsory Schooling in Sweden, Norway and Denmark: Policy Borrowing and Path-dependent Processes

After the Second World War, the Scandinavian countries grew closer, with improving their education systems a common ambition. There are striking similarities in the change processes that occurred in the design of schooling in these countries. Sweden led the way to an expanded comprehensive school system where differentiated instruction became undifferentiated, with Norway following after. Denmark underwent a similar but delayed evolution. Despite certain fundamental problems faced by lower secondary schools, this model shows path-dependent characteristics. The present study examines why this model, which has been referred to as the Nordic model of education, has enjoyed such an enduring influence.

Low-carbon technology diffusion and economic growth of China: an evolutionary general equilibrium framework

The thorough transition of energy system is required to achieve the Paris Agreement goal. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a common tool for estimating the energy transition pathway and the impact of low-carbon policies on economic growth. However, CGE models encounter challenges on modeling diffusion of new technologies. This study proposed a novel evolutionary dynamic general equilibrium model to capture the nonlinear, path-dependent and S-shaped technology diffusion process, and examined the low-carbon transition pathway of power sector and its impact on economic growth of China. We found that imposing a moderate carbon tax and avoiding the over-reliance on coal-fired power could achieve the near-zero emissions of power sector, avoid the large economic loss and hasten the economic growth in the long term. The evolutionary framework may be useful for developing the next-generation model, particularly for simulating the diffusion of new technologies, and their structural effects on economic dynamics.

Risk-Constrained Optimal Dynamic Trading Strategies Under Short- and Long-Term Uncertainties

Recent market changes in power systems with high renewable energy penetration highlighted the need for complex profit maximization and hedging strategies against price volatility and generation uncertainty. This work proposes a dynamic model to represent sequential decision making in this current scenario. Unlike previously reported works, we consider uncertainties in both strategic (long-term) and operational (short-term) levels, all considered as path-dependent stochastic processes. The problem is modeled as a multistage stochastic programming model in which the correlations between inflow forecasts, renewable generation, spot and contract prices are accounted for by means of interconnected long- and short-term decision trees. Additionally, risk aversion is considered through intuitive time-consistent constraints. A case study of the Brazilian power sector is presented, in which real data was used to define the optimal trading strategy of a wind power generator, conditioned to the future evolution of market prices. The model provides the trader with useful information such as the optimal contractual amount, settlement timing, and term. Furthermore, the value of this solution is demonstrated when compared to state-of-the-art static approaches using a multistage-based certainty equivalent performance measure.