Path-dependent Change Research Articles

Talking about practice: agency and its structural context in regional healthcare practice change

ABSTRACT Ageing societies and rising instances of non-communicable diseases require changes in public healthcare service provision. Despite a plethora of propositions, most innovations never become practically applied. In understanding innovation as a place- and path-dependent change process which depends on actors’ agency to reconfigure routinised practices and their structural context, we show how actors create, perceive and act upon opportunities for change while tracing the development trajectories of two networks in the regions of Murcia (Spain) and Örebro (Sweden), respectively. The cases illustrate the role intermediary actors play in creating opportunities and shaping organisational and institutional context.

From sectoral policy change to cross-sectoral (dis)integration? A longitudinal analysis of the EU's forest and rural development policy

Policy integration (PI) is critical to address cross-cutting challenges like climate change and biodiversity loss holistically. In the European Union, forests are confronting increasingly adverse climatic conditions and numerous stressors that impact their biodiversity. Political efforts to counteract these trends are mainly channeled through funding from the rural development policy as a pivotal part of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). In contrast, forest policy is hardly institutionalized at EU level. This study employs process tracing using 65 EU forest and rural development policy documents, including legal acts, preparatory documents, communications, related working documents and evaluation reports, predominantly produced over the last 25 years. By doing this, it examines the development of sectoral policy changes over time and their implications for the cross-sectoral integration of EU forest policy into rural development policy as part of agricultural policy at EU level. Results suggest that the adoption of the EU Forest Strategy for 2030 represented a provisional paradigm shift in EU forest policy. This shift is characterized by a substantial reprioritization of policy objectives, transitioning from an emphasis on economic aspects to a more climate- and biodiversity-centric approach, alterations in supported policy instruments and the introduction of various new regulatory instruments. On the other hand, the CAP and its rural development policy remain characterized by a path dependent incremental change and the latest reforms hardly reflect ambitious forest policy objectives both from budgetary and content perspectives. The findings suggest that the latest seemingly decoupled developments within both policy areas have led to an emergence of forest policy fragmentation at the EU level.

The instability of the nuclear nonproliferation regime complex

This article theorizes path-dependent changes in the institutional architecture of the nuclear nonproliferation regime complex; it analyses the effects of different regime-complex structures on institutional contestation and policy adjustment. I first offer a general theory of how the preexisting institutional structures of international regime complexes (IRCs) facilitate and constrain subsequent institutional developments in ways that make IRCs prone to endogenous, path-dependent change. Next, I illustrate how strategies of regime shifting and rival regime creation in the nuclear nonproliferation complex have triggered path-dependent ‘reactive sequencing’, resulting in growing institutional fragmentation. To illustrate endogenous dynamics of IRC evolution, I examine the nuclear nonproliferation complex at three ‘critical junctures’: The mid-1970s, the end of the Cold War, and the early-2000s. During each period, exogenous proliferation shocks interacted with pre-existing institutional structures to produce specific patterns of contestation which set in motion a reactive sequence of growing institutional fragmentation. My argument has relevance for global economic governance broadly and for the growing IPE literature which explores reactive sequencing and institutional decay in global governance institutions.

On the evolution of comparative advantage: Path-dependent versus path-defying changes

A country’s specialization evolves over time in a dynamic process, with shifts in comparative advantages, resulting in new products being added to the country’s export basket. According to the renowned Product Space (PS) framework (Hausmann and Klinger, 2007; Hidalgo et al., 2007), this dynamic process is characterized by strong path dependence, as a country’s current production capabilities (technologies, production factors, institutions, etc.) determine what a country produces today, but also limits what it can produce tomorrow. We use a novel methodology to explore whether the patterns of specialization of a large sample of countries for the period 1995–2015 correspond to the predictions of the PS framework. Despite finding evidence of path dependence, our analysis also finds that a significant number of new products later added to countries’ export baskets were unrelated to their initial specialization pattern. We shed light on the determinants of these path-dependent changes in countries’ export baskets and show that economic growth is weaker in countries with a higher degree of path dependence.

Austerity, path dependency and the (re)configuration of policing

ABSTRACT As a standard operating backdrop in the United Kingdom, for more than a decade austerity has become an increasingly dominant logic as to how policing can be delivered and (re)configured to do ‘more with less’. Yet beyond simple rationalisation of public policing in line with market principles, a more complex and long-standing trajectory underpins relations between the police and commercial ‘others’ set within this climate. With austerity as a guiding ‘code’, it has accelerated rather than punctuated the evolution of public policing dispersal. Using path dependency theory, the paper argues that change across both law and policy via different forms of critical juncture has embedded commercial principles, while simultaneously reconfiguring the symbolic (and operational) status of the police and their relationship with the public. In turn, the paper highlights that such pluralisation, in a genealogical sense, has tilted police authority away from central state control to a more dispersed and commercial model – but on a long-term trajectory which long precedes austerity as part of path-dependent change.

Modeling of Path-Dependent Phase Change in Sorption and Freezing of Pore Water for Cementitious Materials

Modeling of Path-Dependent Phase Change in Sorption and Freezing of Pore Water for Cementitious Materials

Social policy in Slovenia and Montenegro: Comparing development and challenges

Abstract Slovenia and Montenegro have a common past; however, they have also experienced diverse developments in the field of social policy over the last three decades. The social policy of the two countries is based on a Yugoslav welfare model, and yet the positions of the two countries were quite rather different even as part of Federal Yugoslavia, with Slovenia being one of the most developed territories within the federation, while Montenegro was one of the least developed. In this article, we will describe the position and main challenges of the transition of the two countries from 1990 in relation to the developments and changes in the core fields of social policy, such as the labour market and social assistance, family policy and old age policy. The emphasis will be on linking the diverse starting points, the process of transition and the direction of developments, within the framework of path dependent changes in the two welfare systems, as well as a discussion of the relevant structural pressures, such as the economic and social situation of the two countries and ways of coping with these pressures that were employed. In the conclusion, the changes within the individual fields of social policy will also be discussed in relation to the prevalent discourses of the neoliberal transformation of modern welfare states, along with the development of social investment perspectives within social policy as a whole.

Institutional Change and Institutional Persistence

In this essay, we provide a simple conceptual framework to elucidate the forces that lead to institutional persistence and change. Our framework is based on a dynamic game between different groups, who care both about current policies and institutions and future policies, which are themselves determined by current institutional choices, and clarifies the forces that lead to the most extreme form of institutional persistence (“institutional stasis”) and the potential drivers of institutional change. We further study the strategic stability of institutions, which arises when institutions persist because of fear of subsequent, less beneficial changes that would follow initial reforms. More importantly, we emphasize that, despite the popularity of ideas based on institutional stasis in the economics and political science literatures, most institutions are in a constant state of flux, but their trajectory may still be shaped by past institutional choices, thus exhibiting “path-dependent change”, so that initial conditions determine both the subsequent trajectories of institutions and how they respond to shocks. We conclude the essay by discussing how institutions can be designed to bolster stability, the relationship between social mobility and institutions, and the interplay between culture and institutions.

Engineering learning outcomes:Translations of a policy instrument in a disciplinary context in Nordic higher education

ABSTRACT Learning outcomes have become a central feature in European higher education and are intended to create a plethora of change concerning teaching, relevance, quality and transparency. However, there have been few studies on how learning outcomes have been introduced within disciplines. This article therefore studies the introduction of learning outcomes in Norwegian higher education, in a comparative case study of two engineering programmes. Engineering is often showcased as an example of highly relevant education and has traditions for co-operation with local businesses. Standards are also a common feature in the education and professional work, which suggests that learning outcomes might work well in this context. The article uses translation as theoretical perspective, emphasizing path-dependent change, and draws on the concepts of layering and drift. Empirically, the article is based on qualitative interviews and document material. The findings show learning outcomes as a circulating master idea which was introduced before it became a formal requirement. Learning outcomes were layered onto revisions of the education and adapted to the disciplinary traditions. While the introduction led to structural changes, the cases also show several challenges for the use of learning outcomes for teaching and information purposes.

A phase field framework for capillary-induced fracture in unsaturated porous media: Drying-induced vs. hydraulic cracking

This manuscript introduces a unified mathematical framework to replicate both desiccation-induced and hydraulic fracturing in low-permeable unsaturated porous materials observed in experiments. The unsaturated porous medium is considered as a three-phase solid–liquid–gas effective medium of which each constituent occupies a fraction of the representative elementary volume. As such, an energy-minimization-based phase-field model (PFM) is formulated along with the Biot’s poroelasticity theory to replicate the sub-critical crack growth in the brittle regime. Unlike hydraulic fracturing where the excess pore liquid pressure plays an important role at the onset and propagation of cracks, desiccation cracks are mainly driven by deformation induced by water retention. Therefore, the wettability of the solid skeleton may affect the evolution of the capillary pressure (suction) and change the path-dependent responses of the porous media. This air–water–solid interaction may either hinder or enhance the cracking occurrence. This difference of capillary effect on crack growth during wetting and drying is replicated by introducing retention-sensitive degradation mechanisms in our phase field fracture approach. To replicate the hydraulic behaviors of the pore space inside the host matrix and that of the cracks, the path-dependent changes of the intrinsic permeability due to crack growth and porosity changes are introduced to model the flow conduit in open and closed cracks. Numerical examples of drying-induced and hydraulic fracturing demonstrate the capability of the proposed model to capture different fracture patterns, which qualitatively agrees with the fracture mechanisms of related experiments documented in the literature.

Meritocracy in Village Elections: The “Separation of Election and Employment” Scheme in Rural China

ABSTRACTLocal governments in China face a fundamental ‘democracy dilemma’ in rural governance: although elected village cadres may not be capable or controllable, local governments cannot change or abolish village self-government, as enshrined in China’s Constitution and the national laws. However, there has recently been a new way of dealing with this dilemma for local governments: called the ‘Separation of Election and Employment’ (xuan pin fenli, SEE) [of village cadres]. Based on an in-depth case study of a Zhejiang county, this article argues that SEE is a typical type of institutional layering, which adds a new meritocratic village cadre management system onto existing village democracy. This is a path-dependent institutional change, emulating the Chinese Communist Party’s nomenklatura and bianzhi systems. This research has broader implications concerning gradual institutional change and political meritocracy.

Path-dependent institutional change to collective land rights: The collective entrenched in urbanizing Guangzhou

ABSTRACTEconomic reform brings about socioeconomic and organizational changes, which give rise to institutional change as a result. Collective land rights are undergoing continuing institutional change in the context of dynamic, bottom-up, rural change and consequent problematic spatial fragmentation, ecological deterioration, exclusiveness of migrants, and land underutilization in the Pearl River Delta region. The implementation of the Renewal and Refurbishment Program in Panyu, a district in Guangzhou, reveals that the collective land use right, owned by the villages, has constituted an effective holding power to bargain for institutional change to the collective land rights in favor of the rural collective. As a result, path-dependent institutional change to the collective land rights leads to the collective entrenched in the urbanizing metropolis.

A Critical-Realist View of Housing Quality within the Post-Communist EU States: Progressing towards a Middle-Range Explanation

Employing a long-term perspective, we explore whether ideologically rooted quality outcomes of housing provision under communism have persisted during the post-communist construction of housing markets. Drawing on theories of path-dependent change, we hypothesize that patterns of housing quality still reflect past lines of division, namely the Soviet housing model, and the classical and reformist models of the Eastern Bloc. Using a critical-realist approach to housing quality, we relate households’ experiences to key underlying structures; this ontological depth is then operationalized by means of micro- and macro-indicators used as input for hierarchical cluster analyses. Findings support our main hypothesis, yet there is more diversity in households’ experiences than initially assumed. Our study advances a valuable middle-range epistemological frame for understanding the complex social reality of housing and helps shatter the growing view that communist housing systems were all too similar.

Research and innovation as sources of renewed growth? EU policy responses to the crisis

An important element of the EU policy discourse during times of crisis has been a call to invest more in research and innovation as sources of future growth. To study the effects of crisis in this policy area, this article draws on an analysis of expert interviews, policy documents and relevant literature. It argues that the crisis has led to incremental and path-dependent changes in EU policy instruments and priorities. To respond to the crisis, EU research and innovation policy has focused on two main issues. Firstly, it has aimed to facilitate structural reforms and to increase the level, quality and efficiency of public and private investments in research and innovation at the national level. Secondly, the EU has increased its own research and innovation funding. These decisions have involved compromises between the European Commission, the European Parliament, the Council and stakeholder organisations.

Governments as strategists in designing global players: the case of European utilities

ABSTRACTThis article contributes to the understanding of the role of European governments in fostering new global players in the utilities. We argue that the international growth of firms stems from their interaction with governments, which act not only as rule setters but also as goal-oriented strategists, through public policies and mechanisms ranging from firm ownership to more indirect intervention designed to promote internationalization. We claim that the outcome of the interaction significantly depends on the country's form of capitalism. The particular form of capitalism manifested in a country is deeply rooted in historical and cultural behavioural models and differs according to path-dependent institutional changes. Our conjectures are empirically supported by a comparative analysis of the international growth of previously inward-looking domestic incumbents in the European energy and telecommunications industries over the last 15 years.

A Truce in the Transatlantic Food Fight: The United States, the European Union, and Genetically Modified Foods in the Obama Years

The transatlantic dispute over the regulation of genetically modified (GM) foods and crops has for more than two decades been one of the most intractable conflicts dividing the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). The eight years of the George W. Bush Administration witnessed the high-water mark of conflict over GM foods, culminating in the US filing of a case against the EU at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2003, the WTO’s subsequent finding in favor of the US in 2006, and the EU’s apparent failure to comply with the ruling by the end of 2008 due to deep-seated opposition among EU member states and their publics. Despite hopes that US and EU policies might converge over time, the US and the EU in January 2009 seemed as far apart as ever on the regulation of GM foods, which threatened to become a flashpoint in the transatlantic relationship during the presidency of Barack Obama. This paper examines the record of US and EU policies on GM foods during the Obama years, to determine whether policy convergence has taken place, to understand the nature of EU/US cooperation and conflict, and to ascertain the degree of continuity or change from the Bush to the Obama years. The evidence from the period since 2009 suggests substantial continuity in both US and EU policies, which remain deeply entrenched, as well as in the two sides’ joint efforts to manage cooperatively the resulting frictions. In the US, NGO hopes and industry fears of more restrictive GMO regulation under Obama have not come to pass, with regulators continuing to implement the same permissive regulations as the Bush administration, even in the face of increasingly skeptical public opinion and initiatives to require mandatory labeling. In the EU, the Commission has continued its effort to speed up the approval new GM varieties in the face of member-state opposition, but both the EU’s strict regulations and strong public opposition toward GMOs remain entrenched. Regulatory polarization on this issue is therefore likely to remain robust for the foreseeable future, with only minor, path-dependent changes in the absence of any major exogenous shock. Given this persistent gulf between US and EU policies, prospects for a definitive solution to the GMO dispute seem dim – yet neither have the two sides descended into a transatlantic trade war. Instead, the US under Obama has continued with the broad lines of the approach established during the final years of the Bush administration, threatening retaliation for EU non-compliance in order to keep the pressure on the EU, while working with the Commission to promote the approval of new GM varieties and the adoption of policies important to US industry and farmers. This combination of deeply entrenched, change-resistant domestic policies within the US and the EU, together with a pragmatic willingness of both sides to work together to minimize the disruptive effects of persistent regulatory differences, has yielded, not a settlement, but an apparently lasting truce, in the transatlantic “food fight.”

Central and eastern European industrial relations in the crisis: national divergence and path-dependent change

This article assesses the effects of the recent economic crisis on industrial relations in the central and eastern European EU Member States. The analysis is based on the theoretical framework of three types of central and eastern European capitalism: neoliberal, embedded neoliberal and neocorporatist (Bohle and Greskovits, 2012). The article introduces the individual articles of this issue, arguing that the impact of the crisis on collective bargaining processes and institutions is shaped by economic and political factors and, above all, by the institutional setting of industrial relations. Trade union responses are explained by the varying use of two strategic sources of power: participation in formal collective bargaining (institutional power) and a strengthening of the membership base (membership power). Despite considerable differences between countries with regard to these factors, recent developments in collective bargaining have tended to be path-dependent and have resulted in a further shift of the region’s industrial relations towards neoliberalism.

The dynamics of interfirm networks along the industry life cycle: The case of the global video game industry, 1987–2007

In this article, we study the formation of network ties between firms along the life cycle of a creative industry. We focus on three mechanisms that drive network formation: (i) network endogeneity which stresses a path-dependent change originating from previous network structures, (ii) five forms of proximity (e.g. geographical proximity) which ascribe tie formation to the similarity of attributes of firms and (iii) individual characteristics which refer to the heterogeneity in the capabilities of firms to exploit external knowledge. The article employs a stochastic actor-oriented model to estimate the – changing – effects of these mechanisms on the formation of the interfirm network in the global video game industry from 1987 to 2007. Our findings indicate that, on average, the direction of the effects of the three mechanisms are stable over time, but that their weights change with the degree of maturity of the industry. To an increasing extent, video game firms tend to prefer to partner over short distances and with more cognitively similar firms as the industry evolves.

The political responses to the global economic and financial crises in Francophone Africa from 1980 to 2010: A paradigm shift?

This article analyzed and compared the political responses to Africa’s twenty-first century versus twentieth century economic and financial crises in order to explicate the dynamics of policy innovation and continuity. Based on studies of Francophone countries, this comparative institutional analysis proposed direct attention to how ideas (paradigms), interests (strategies of the elites), institutions (national and international) and the temporal context affected political and institutional outcomes. Since the emergence of independent African states, many economic and financial crises have emerged and resulted in path dependent or paradigmatic changes: state interventionism, state capitalism, structural adjustment, privatization, liberalization, progressive dismantling of the interventionist state, interventions of the international financial institutions, regional partnerships for development, poverty reduction strategies, and new public management. Twenty-first century policies constituted a paradigmatic shift compared to the previously nationalist, interventionist, protectionist, and state-centered African policies of the early twentieth century. However, they constitute continuity when compared to neoliberal and market-friendly measures introduced by international financial institutions during the 1980s. Explanations of policy responses lead to newly developed concepts, institutional intrusion (semi-strategic and semi-structural) and inclusion (semi-strategic and semi-ideational), which explain Francophone Africa’s transformations and has implications for comparative politics in developing countries. Key words: Francophone Africa, economic, financial, crisis, institutional intrusion, institutional inclusion, political innovation.

A new anisotropic elasto-plastic model with degradation of elastic modulus for accurate springback simulations

Springback, a phenomenon that is governed by elastic strain recovery after the removal of forming loads, is of great concern in sheet metal forming. There is no doubt that in this regard, physically reliable numerical modelling of the forming process and predictions of springback obtained by respective computer simulations are crucial for controlling this problem. Unfortunately, by currently available approaches, springback still cannot be adequately predicted in general. In this paper, a new constitutive model is proposed which considers simultaneously sheet anisotropy, damage evolution and strain path-dependent stiffness degradation during sheet metal forming. For parameter identification of the built constitutive model, a particular experimental procedure is developed and an optimization procedure is employed to solve the inverse problem that arises. The proposed approach to constitutive modelling is validated in the end by a simulation of the springback in the formed HSS steel sheet. The simulation results, which prove to be in good agreement with the experimental ones, lead to the conclusion that accurate modelling only of anisotropic yielding is not enough to accurately predict the springback phenomenon; the constitutive model should also include the strain path-dependent change of the elastic moduli.