Path-dependent Effects Research Articles

Path dependence in explanatory models of economic thinking: Practice of publications in business media

Based on the sample of publications in federal business periodicals for the period from 2000 to 2024, the article examines the specifics of explanatory models used in the information discourse and applied in the press for the essential characteristics of economic processes. Content analysis and discourse analysis show that the explanatory models used in the media are fully consistent with the path dependence effect, that is, they record the dependence of current and future development on past experience, and also appeal to this experience regardless of its correspondence to the real state of economic picture. The article outlines the prospects for using explanatory models in the information discourse, including the inertia of using outdated economic approaches, the coexistence of conflicting stereotypes, as well as the strengthening of semantic empty constructions that record only the external form of the explanatory model without relevant empirical subject. A conclusion is made about the strengthening of the path dependence effect in explanatory models of the media, and, consequently, about the increasing subjectivity in the presentation of economic information

Does economic globalization promote civil peace in developing countries?

This study questions the widely supported claim that economic globalization benefits developing countries by enhancing their prospects for civil peace. Drawing on ideas from across the social sciences, this study questions the nature of causation between economic globalization and civil peace and how it should be conceptualized and modeled. Instead of assuming a straightforward and static relationship whereby economic globalization directly increases the likelihood of civil peace, a range of alternative hypotheses are considered, including those about reverse and reciprocal causation and about dynamic and path-dependent effects. Using dynamic panel regression and vector autoregression, the study empirically examines how trade openness and foreign direct investment affect civil violence in a sample of all countries classified by the United Nations as developing. The results find positive links between economic globalization and civil peace, as much of the literature predicts, but show that this relationship mainly arises from complex patterns of causation rather than from the pacifying effects of economic globalization. These results are robust to various model specifications and sampling strategies. The study ends by considering whether economic globalization may indirectly promote civil peace by fostering long-term economic development.

Path dependence in environment-related innovation: evidence from listed firms in China

ABSTRACT This paper studies the path dependence effect in corporate innovation based on the patent data of Chinese listed firms. The results provide robust evidence of the path dependence in technology innovation. The accumulated stock of brown patents reduces the ratio of green patents to total patents newly granted, thus inhibiting green structural changes in innovation. The accumulated stock of green patents increases the ratio of green patents in total patents granted, promoting structural change towards green innovation. The path dependence effect exists in both green inventions and green utility model patents. The heterogeneity analysis shows that both brown and green patent stocks of heavy polluting firms have a weaker effect on the ratio of green inventions than non-heavy polluting firms. The negative path dependence effect of brown patents on green innovation is stronger in firms with large scale, state ownership, and a high level of environmental regulation. However, the negative path dependence effects on green innovation can be alleviated for firms with superior environmental and financial performance. This suggests that the government has to create economic incentives to break the path dependence and encourage firms to engage in green innovation.

Spatiotemporal evolution and key driver analysis of ozone pollution from the perspectives of spatial spillover and path-dependence effects in China

In recent years, ozone (O3) has emerged as the primary air pollutant in China, superseding PM2.5. Previous studies have concentrated on the spatiotemporal variation of ozone pollution, the analysis of its sources and drivers, as well as its environmental impacts and health benefits. Since ozone pollution can be dynamically transferred through industrial activities and meteorological factors, it is crucial to scientifically identify the spatial spillover and path-dependent effects of ozone pollution in China. However, existing studies have not yet addressed this issue. Therefore, we investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and the spatial spillover of ozone pollution by means of the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) using panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2013 to 2020 in this study. The dynamic spatial Durbin model (SDM) was employed to reveal the key drivers of ozone pollution from the perspectives of spatial spillover and path-dependence effects. The direct and spillover effects of each driver on ozone pollution are systematically analyzed. The results show that from 2013 to 2020 ozone concentrations followed a fluctuating upward trend at national and provincial scales. Ozone pollution presented significant spatial spillover and path dependence effects. The direct effects indicated that economic growth, technological level, industrial structure, energy structure, ventilation coefficient, relative humidity and precipitation were the key drivers of local ozone pollution. The spillover effects indicated that population density, technology level, industrial structure, environmental regulations, ventilation coefficient, sunshine hours and relative humidity had significant spatial spillover effects on ozone pollution of surrounding regions. These findings will contribute to the understanding of the spatial spillover and path-dependent effects of O3 pollution, and provide scientific guidance for regional synergy and long-term ozone control policies in China.

Dynamic effects of path dependence on regional entrepreneurship in transitional China

ABSTRACT Previous studies fall short when explaining the determinants of regional entrepreneurship in an unstable environment from a dynamic perspective. This study investigates the dynamic feedback effects of path dependence on the regional entrepreneurial activities in China. Using a sample of panel data related to 47,515,084 enterprises from 2000 to 2018, we estimate a set of panel models analyzing the effects of dynamic increasing returns and formal and informal institutional hysteresis on the new firm formation in Chinese cities. Our results provide evidence of positive relationships between peer effects from past entrepreneurial activities, past FDI and government intervention as well as the historical environment of the proportion of foreign-funded enterprises and SOEs in 1989 with the start-up rates. This study on regional entrepreneurship in the Chinese context develops a broader understanding of entrepreneurship in transition economies.

Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Carbon Emissions and Their Influencing Factors at the County Scale: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China

Significant carbon emissions, a key contributor to global climate warming, pose risks to ecosystems and human living conditions. It is crucial to monitor the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions at the county level to reach the goals of carbon peak and neutrality. This study examines carbon emissions and economic and social problems data from 89 counties in Zhejiang Province. It employs analytical techniques such as LISA time path, spatio-temporal transition, and standard deviational ellipse to investigate the trends of carbon emissions from 2002 to 2022. Furthermore, it utilizes the GTWR model to evaluate the factors that influence these emissions on a county scale. The findings reveal the following: (1) The LISA time path analysis indicates a pronounced local spatial structure in the distribution of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province from 2002 to 2022, characterized by increasing stability, notable path dependency, and some degree of spatial integration, albeit with a diminishing trend in overall integration. (2) The LISA spatio-temporal transition analysis indicates significant path dependency or lock-in effects in the county-level spatial clustering of carbon emissions. (3) Over the period 2002–2022, the centroid of carbon emissions in Zhejiang’s counties mainly oscillated between 120°55′15″ E and 120°57′01″ E and between 29°55′52″ N and 29°59′11″ N, with a general northeastward shift forming a “V” pattern. This shift resulted in a stable “northeast–southwest” spatial distribution. (4) Factors such as population size, urbanization rate, and economic development level predominantly accelerate carbon emissions, whereas industrial structure tends to curb them. It is crucial to customize carbon mitigation plans to suit the circumstances of each county. This study provides insight into the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions at the county level in Zhejiang Province. It offers crucial guidance for developing targeted and practical strategies to reduce carbon emissions.

The case of Brexit: How to open a critical juncture without an exogenous shock?

The article examines Brexit through the historical institutionalist scholarship on European integration, critical junctures and institutional change. It finds that the concepts of path dependence, and critical junctures that emerge from exogenous shocks, as well as most processes of endogenous institutional transformation cannot fully account for Brexit. How can a Member State leave the European Union, if membership in the organisation produces path-dependent effects and there is no exogenous shock? To answer the question, the article introduces the concept of a hybrid critical juncture – a period of increased contingency and uncertainty that is created gradually by a combination of exogenous and endogenous causes and agency. The article examines the events that led to the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU to demonstrate how the hybrid critical juncture concept explains Brexit. The analysis contributes to understanding potential future European disintegration and incremental institutional transformation broadly defined.

Analysis of the Impact of Structuralized Industrial Upgrading and Industry Chain Resilience

This paper integrates several theoretical perspectives, such as economics, sociology, environmental science, organizational ecology, global value chain theory and complexity theory, to explore in depth the interrelationship between structured industrial upgrading and the resilience of the industrial chain. From the economic dimension, industrial upgrading not only promotes the development of the industry chain to a higher level, but also improves the resilience of the whole industry chain by reducing the dependence on limited resources through the introduction of new technologies and the enhancement of efficiency. The consideration of the social dimension emphasizes the importance of paying attention to social responsibility and social participation in the upgrading process, which helps establish a stronger social foundation and improves the resilience of the whole industrial chain. The environmental dimension perspective reveals the positive impact of the environmental friendliness of industrial chain upgrading on resilience, which enhances the overall stability of the industrial chain by reducing environmental shocks. Organizational ecology theory, on the other hand, highlights the roles and interactions at the organizational level, and factors such as organizational evolution, adaptation, and resource allocation have far-reaching impacts on the resilience of the industry chain. The global value chain theory provides a global perspective, emphasizing the importance of division of labor synergy and diversification in each link of the chain. Finally, complexity theory profoundly analyzes the complex mechanism of industry chain evolution from the perspectives of self-organizing behavior, path dependence, and nonlinear effects, enabling a better understanding of the dynamic evolution process of the industry chain. The synthesis of these theoretical perspectives provides a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between industrial structuralization and upgrading and industry chain resilience, and provides theoretical support for the development of more comprehensive and targeted policies and strategies in the future. In practice, an in-depth analysis of how various factors interact will help promote the sustainable development and adaptive upgrading of the industrial chain.

The willingness and influencing factors to choose institutional elder care among rural elderly: an empirical analysis based on the survey data of Shandong Province

BackgroundThe ageing of the population has become an escalating problem in China, which has led to an increasing demand for healthcare throughout society. The care services of elderly institutions, as a more mature way of aging, can alleviate various social problems brought about by ageing to a certain extent. The aim of this paper is to explore the degree of acceptance of institutional care by rural elderly people in Shandong Province and the factors that influence whether rural elderly people accept institutional care services.MethodologyBased on the theory of planned behavior, an analytical framework was constructed for the willingness of rural elderly people to receive nursing services from elderly care institutions. Using survey data from 192 rural elderly people in Shandong Province, descriptive statistics, binary logistic regression, and horizontal comparative analysis methods were used to analyze the willingness of rural elderly people to provide for the elderly and its influencing factors.ResultOnly 17.71% of respondents expressed willingness to receive services from elderly care institutions. Among them, education level, trust in elderly care institutions, and support from adult children have a significant positive impact on whether rural elderly people receive nursing services from elderly care institutions; The number of children, the level of understanding of elderly care institutions, neighbors' choices of elderly care methods, and their ability to contribute to the family have a significant negative impact on whether rural elderly people receive nursing services from elderly care institutions. There are significant differences in the willingness and influencing factors of rural elderly people to provide for the elderly among different regions.ConclusionThe non-acceptance of institutional care by rural older people is a general phenomenon rather than a sample characteristic, thus justifying the supplementary status of institutional care services. The pension intention of the rural elderly in Shandong Province is obviously affected by personal will factors, and the influencing factors are various. The traditional concept of old-age care in Shandong province has a strong path-dependent effect on the choice of the rural elderly. There is heterogeneity in the willingness and influencing factors of the rural elderly in different regions and countries. Based on this, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: strengthen the spiritual and cultural construction of residents; The government should pay attention to the correct guidance of public opinion; And increase pension subsidies. It is hoped that reduce the burden of national elderly care through these suggestions.

How party-history-revision became a tactic for leadership struggles within the Chinese Communist Party in China

In China, when top leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) meet intractable intraparty struggles, they may resort to revision of party history for the settlement. This has become an idiosyncratic tactic in China's elite politics that draws scholars’ interests. How does party history revision solve leadership struggles? I argue that this repetitive phenomenon can be explained to a certain degree by path dependence. This research investigates the historical process of how party history was enmeshed in intraparty struggles, institutionalized, and exerted path-dependent impact. By reviewing the process, I find that a political tactic at an early critical juncture may engender institutionalization, generate path-dependent effect, and push historical development along a particular path. Path dependence may lead the same phenomenon to repetitively occur across time.

The geographical preconditions of radical price reforms in post-Mao China: Critical reflections on How China Escaped Shock Therapy

This paper offers a critical engagement with Isabella Weber’s fascinating new book, How China Escaped Shock Therapy. It foregrounds the book’s contributions to knowledge on a hitherto under-explored topic – why shock therapy advocates were unsuccessful in launching all-out price liberalisation across China during the 1980s – and introduces new questions through assessing Weber’s analysis vis-à-vis three geographical aspects of Chinese political-economic evolution: (a) the role of landownership control and redistribution in stabilising the Chinese economy following the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) revolutionary victory in 1949; (b) the path-dependent effects of Mao-era (1949-1976) landownership institutions on economic reforms during the 1980s; and (c) Deng Xiaoping’s approach to the multi-dimensional emergence of coastal-oriented industrialisation. These three aspects collectively accentuate how the territorial configuration and regulation of the Chinese political economy, so fundamental for producing and sustaining CPC regime durability, undermined the neoclassical bias towards price liberalisation. Understanding the geographical preconditions that underpin post-1949 Chinese political-economic evolution is therefore crucial for understanding why shock therapy was ultimately deemed incongruent with CPC rule.

Thermodynamically consistent concurrent material and structure optimization of elastoplastic multiphase hierarchical systems.

The concept of concurrent material and structure optimization aims at alleviating the computational discovery of optimum microstructure configurations in multiphase hierarchical systems, whose macroscale behavior is governed by their microstructure composition that can evolve over multiple length scales from a few micrometers to centimeters. It is based on the split of the multiscale optimization problem into two nested sub-problems, one at the macroscale (structure) and the other at the microscales (material). In this paper, we establish a novel formulation of concurrent material and structure optimization for multiphase hierarchical systems with elastoplastic constituents at the material scales. Exploiting the thermomechanical foundations of elastoplasticity, we reformulate the material optimization problem based on the maximum plastic dissipation principle such that it assumes the format of an elastoplastic constitutive law and can be efficiently solved via modified return mapping algorithms. We integrate continuum micromechanics based estimates of the stiffness and the yield criterion into the formulation, which opens the door to a computationally feasible treatment of the material optimization problem. To demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of our framework, we define new benchmark tests with several material scales that, for the first time, become computationally feasible. We argue that our formulation naturally extends to multiscale optimization under further path-dependent effects such as viscoplasticity or multiscale fracture and damage.

What Would It be Like to be Bohmians? Experiencing a Gestalt Switch in Physics as an Effect of Path Dependence

ABSTRACT The philosophical goal is to characterize ‘path dependence’ (PAD) in science by comparison to PAD in technology where the concept was initially introduced. I rely on quantum mechanics to substantiate the analyses, exploiting the contrast between standard versus Bohmian quantum physics (NQP/BQP). To achieve the goal, counterfactual history is mobilized as a means to generate instructive virtual alternatives to the actual scientific path: I design a ‘permuted-situations counterfactual scenario’ in which it is BQP, instead of NQP, that first acquires a monopoly on physics and is exclusively practiced in science education, before NQP is introduced. Then, I endeavor to ‘reenact’ – as forensic investigators carry out the re-enactment of a crime scene – how virtual mainstream Bohmians would assess NQP. Contrasting the two ‘views from inside’ – ‘what it is like to be’ a standard quantum physicist in our world (a physicist trained in NQP) and what it would be like to be a physicist exclusively trained in BQP – I attempt to come as close as possible to an ‘experience’ of the gestalt switch involved when shuttling back and forth between one scientific worldview to the other. The effects of PAD in physics are discussed on this basis.

Fiscal policies and car choices in Italy and Norway: A scenario analysis based on a stated-preference survey

Norwegian and Italian car drivers make very different car choices. This paper investigates the influence of fiscal policies on car buyers’ choices, using data collected from a stated preference survey conducted in 2021. After estimating a joint random parameter logit model, we simulated the market shares of five car powertrains under three scenarios: “Italian car buyers face the same net purchase car prices and fuel\\electricity costs as the Norwegian car drivers and vice versa”, “Italy adopts the Norwegian registration tax”, and “Both Italy and Norway adopt a social cost internalizing registration tax”. The results indicate that Italian car users are reluctant to switch to battery electric cars (BEVs). They would choose BEVs more frequently in the three scenarios envisaged but without reaching the corresponding Norwegian levels. If Italy would adopt the Norwegian registration tax system, BEVs’ market share would gain 5.4 percentage points relative to the baseline scenario, while under the social cost internalizing scenario, BEVs’ market share would improve by 3.4 and PHEVs’ one by 0.2 percentage points. On the contrary, Norwegians are BEV-oriented and would comparatively preserve a high BEV share. In the social cost internalization scenario, the BEV share relative to the baseline scenario would decrease by 7.2 percentage points, petrol cars would gain 1.2, HEVs 2.9, PHEVs 3.4, and diesel cars would lose 0.3 percentage points. In general, there seems to be a lock-in or path dependence effect that limits BEV penetration in Italy and prevents the decline of the BEV share in Norway.

Spatiotemporal evolution and influence mechanism of the carbon footprint of energy consumption at county level in the Yellow River Basin

Implementing emission reduction policies at county level is important to realize high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin and achieve national “carbon peaking” and “carbon neutrality” goals. Based on remote-sensing data of night light, net primary productivity, and land use, the present study utilized the light‑carbon conversion and carbon footprint measurement models to quantify the carbon footprint of energy consumption. An exploratory spatiotemporal data analysis method was implemented to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution path. Panel quantile regression and spatiotemporal transition-nested models were used to reveal the influence mechanism of the spatiotemporal evolution of the carbon footprint. The following results were obtained. (1) The carbon footprint of counties increased from 2001 to 2020. Counties with high‑carbon footprint diffused around the “one center and two axes”. Carbon-deficit counties exhibited a diffused trend towards the west. In 2020, 506 counties exhibited carbon deficits, and the carbon balance of the ecosystem was severely unbalanced. (2) The carbon footprint showed evident path dependence and Matthew effect. The high‑carbon footprint lock-in area comprising 177 counties is a challenging zone for governance. The 86 counties that exhibit carbon footprint changes are the key zones to drive the carbon footprint changes in the Basin. The change direction of the county's carbon footprint type, with evident spatial correlation characteristics, is in accordance with adjacent counties. (3) The carbon footprint spatiotemporal transition types and influence mechanisms in counties exhibited significant differences, with the coexistence of low-carbon footprint driving, low-carbon footprint restriction, high-carbon footprint driving and high-carbon footprint restriction modes. As the influence mechanisms of different modes and the paths to achieve “dual carbon” goals are different, the governance of different modes should focus on optimizing and strengthening restriction factors or controlling and improving of driving factors.

Leapfrogging or lagging? Drivers of social equity from renewable energy transitions globally

When countries transition to renewable energy, why do some countries benefit in terms of social equity outcomes more than others? This study examines the effects of technology, policy toolkits and path dependence on countries' changing social equity outcomes, against alternative explanations including development, quality of governance, and demographic factors. Using a new country level measure of the social equity impacts of renewable energy deployment levels for 99 countries from 1990 to 2015, this Large-N study tests which country-level policy interventions and political conditions improve the social impacts of RE deployment regimes. Drawing on statistical models of panel data, we find renewable energy adoption is associated with greater social equity, although alternative renewable energy policies produce better social equity than feed-in tariffs. Further, social equity trajectories are constrained by countries' baseline human development indicators, highlighting that lower income countries facing greater income inequality may struggle to achieve gains in social equity equal to those of higher income countries when deploying RE.

Knowledge path dependence, external connection, and radical inventions: Evidence from Chinese Academy of Sciences

Public research institutes (PRIs) have played an increasingly prominent role in leading radical inventions, which are considered a major source of long-term economic growth. However, there is little empirical evidence on the factors affecting radical inventions in PRIs, which have been at the forefront of scientific research and technological development. This study fills this gap by providing an empirical analysis of radical inventions at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), a conglomerate of PRIs in China. Based on a newly compiled data set on CAS patents, this study explores the effects of knowledge path dependence, external network connections, and their interactions on radical inventions in PRIs. Our empirical findings reveal that knowledge path dependence negatively affects radical inventions; there is an inverse U-shaped relationship between external network connections and radical inventions, and weak external connections can alleviate the hindrance originating from knowledge path dependence, thus prompting radical inventions.

Divergence and convergence in international regulatory policies regarding genome-edited food: How to find a middle ground.

Regulations for organisms and products to which genome-editing technologies are applied are increasing in diversity, with the path-dependent effect of previous regulations for genetically modified organisms. Regulations for genome-editing technologies are a patchwork of international regulations that are difficult to harmonize. However, if the approaches are arranged in chronological order and the overall trend is examined, the regulation of genome-edited organisms and GM food products has recently been trending toward a middle ground which can be characterized as "limited convergence." There is a trend toward the adoption of two approaches: one that considers GMOs but tries to apply simplified regulations and another that excludes them from the scope of regulations as non-GMOs but requires confirmation. In this paper, we discuss why there is a tendency toward convergence of these two approaches and examine the challenges and implications of these two approaches for the governance of the agricultural and food sectors.

Tissue-based trace element pollution of clam Ruditapes philippinarum in China: Hotspot identification and multiple nonlinear analysis

Considering the complexity of coastal and estuarine systems, a great challenge of environmental health assessment is to distinguish between natural and anthropogenically induced stress. Quantification of trace element accumulation in the tissues of sedentary bivalves with subsequent hotspot identification is important to assess the pollution status. The present study conducted a nationwide mapping of bioavailable macro- and trace elements in a widely distributed biomonitoring clam Ruditapes philippinarum from China. Ag, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, and Zn concentrations in the clams showed similar levels as those documented previously in mussels, but were lower than those in oysters at similar sites from China. Notably, the total As concentrations in clams at Xinkai Estuary and Beibu Bay were relatively higher than those at other sites in China. After normalization by tissue biomass, salinity (Na) and nutrient (P), some hotspots were identified with high pollution of trace elements at Liaodong Bay of Bohai Sea, Gold Beach of Qingdao, Dongling Port of Yellow Sea, Hangzhou Bay and adjacent coasts of East China Sea, and Pearl River Estuary and Beibu Bay of South China Sea. This study demonstrated that most trace elements had a path-dependent effect of biomass, except for Cd which showed an indirect pathway of AgNi related accumulation. Results showed significant correlations between Cd, Zn, Ag and Ni, and between Pb/Cr and Ti in clams. After mass normalization, all trace elements displayed significantly positive correlations with Na or P. Simultaneously, the clam biomass played an intermediary role in trace element accumulation in non-linear patterns related to salinity and nutrient. These results are important in evaluating the composite ambiguous information of the historical data of trace element biomonitoring.

Evaluation and Impact Mechanism of High-Quality Development in China's Coastal Provinces.

With economic expansion having moderated to a "new normal" pace, the eastern coastal provinces have been given a new historical task of high-quality development and become a window and frontier of China's high-quality development. By designing and optimizing an index system of high-quality development levels and using the entropy-TOPSIS method, the study selected 21 indicators, include economic vitality, residents' living standards, innovation efficiency and green development, and took China's eastern coastal provinces as an example to study the characteristics of spatial-temporal variations in the high-quality development level from 2010 to 2020. Then, the study used the obstacle degree model to explore the factors that are obstacles to high-quality development. The results show that the high-quality development of the eastern coastal provinces presents an "up-down-up" fluctuation, with an increase of 40.1%. In particular, the development level of the residents' living standards dimension is higher, and the high-quality development level of each province shows different degrees of growth and gradually tends to balanced development, with the high-quality development of Shanghai, Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province in a dominant position. The spatial pattern of high-quality development in the study areas shows a spatial distribution pattern of "high in the east and low in the west, high in the north and low in the south", in which the bipolar spatial effect of the innovation efficiency dimension is becoming more and more prominent, while the regional synergistic development effect of the residents' living standard dimension is more obvious, and the high-quality development spatial pattern shows a "core-periphery" structure, and there is a path-dependent effect in time change, and agglomeration is produced by trickle-down effect in space. The obstacles to residents' living standards are high, and the main obstacle factor has gradually changed from insufficient output in innovation to a reduction in the scale of foreign trade. In addition, the problems of unreasonable industrial structure and shortage of per capita public cultural resources still exist. In provinces with a high-quality development level and a relatively developed economy, the biggest obstacle factors are economic vitality and residents' living standards. In provinces with a low level of high-quality development and a relatively backward economy, the biggest obstacle factors are green development and innovation efficiency, and there are both similarities and differences in the main obstacle factors among provinces.