Path Choice Research Articles

Pedestrian Path Choice in Crowded Indoor Environments

Abstract. Indoor crowds can be regarded as dynamic obstacles and they could impede the movement of pedestrians. For instance, the scope of crowds could significantly impact accurate path choices. There are few discussions from an individual’s perspective to reveal the decision-making process of reasonable path choices. In this paper, we aim to address how an indoor pedestrian would walk in a crowded indoor environment. We propose a method to simulate a pedestrian’s path choices during wayfinding process. It is wrapped in a workflow that can capture near-real-time crowd uncertainty. First, the measurement errors of crowds are alleviated with a Bayesian filter. According to crowd locations at each moment, the method of Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) is applied to a grid model of the building to obtain the uncertainty map of the crowds. Based on a two-level spatial model, the logical path represented by a room sequence can be derived from a ’room-door’ network, while detailed path choices on the ’operational’ level are refined in each room. By considering both crowd uncertainty and time cost, path choices for a user are determined by using the A* algorithm at each time slot. By iterating the optimal path to the next door/the target in the current room, the user location of the next moment can be inferred. Our test initially validated the feasibility of the method on the path choices of a pedestrian. In the future, we plan to further conduct field tests with different users in crowded indoor environments.

Influence of rotation speed and frequency on the decision of Columba livia domestica (homing pigeon) to cross the rotor-swept area of paper blades mimicking a wind turbine

Abstract To reduce bird collisions with wind turbines, automatic detection systems have been developed to slow the blades down when a bird is approaching. We experimentally tested whether blade rotational speed (i.e., number of rotations per min) and frequency (i.e., number of times a blade passes a point per min) affected the decision time (i.e., time to take-off), path choice (i.e., the position in the aviary), and decision to cross the rotor-swept area in Columba livia domestica (rock dove [domestic variety]; aka homing pigeon; hereafter, pigeon). We used a homemade device with paper blades, mimicking the movement of wind turbine blades. We adjusted the paper blade dimensions and achromatic contrast with the background to match the visual capabilities of pigeons, increasing the probability of detection. Pigeons were less likely to cross the rotor-swept area at higher speeds and frequencies, independent of their decision time. When pigeons crossed the rotor-swept area (43 out of 160 trials), 63% collided with the blades, regardless of blade speed or frequency. Pigeons chose to avoid the rotor-swept area after they had travel half the distance to the wind turbine. Pigeons were not better able to avoid the rotor-swept area when blades were rotating at low speed and/or frequency and often collided with the blades. Thus, slowing blades to a low rotational speed may not reduce collisions with some species and a complete turbine shutdown may be necessary. The feasibility and economic costs of regular complete shutdowns after the deceleration triggered by the automatic detection systems need further investigation.

Functions of a Complex Variable with a Large Parameter and Construction of Regions

The study of the asymptotic behavior of solutions of singularly perturbed equations in complex domains comes down to the study of integrals of exponential functions containing a large parameter. Such integrals differ significantly from the integrals to which the saddle point method is applicable. The saddle point method is not applicable to study such integrals. Thus, the problem arises of constructing domains and choosing integration paths for studying such integrals. In this work, specific examples of integrals show the construction of regions in the complex plane and the choice of integration paths. The chosen integration paths ensure that the integrals are bounded over a large parameter as this parameter tends to infinity. When constructing the domain and choosing integration paths, level lines of some harmonic functions that have zeros and singular points were used. The principle of symmetry is also used. In early works, cases were considered when the eigenvalues ​​of the first approximation matrix of a singularly perturbed equation had only zeros or only poles. Cases where the eigenvalues ​​have zeros and poles were not considered.

A dynamic discrete choice modelling approach for forward-looking travel mode choices

In this paper, we present a systematic approach based on dynamic discrete choice models (DDCM) to investigate individuals’ forward-looking mode choice behaviours in daily travel tours with multiple destinations. We propose a novel network transformation model that encompasses the entire decision space of all feasible mode combinations for every observed trip/tour in the dataset. By applying the well-established Recursive Logit model structure commonly used in path choice modelling, we address the tour mode choice problem effectively and quantify forward looking considerations in the mode choice process. The proposed model captures the complex considerations individuals take into account when making mode choices. The network transformation incorporates downstream mode limitations into the preceding mode choice options, enabling us to model individuals’ forward-looking behaviour and gain insights into how considerations of future trips such as a shopping in the evening, or school pick-up trip influence previous mode choice decisions earlier in the day. Uncovering and quantifying these hidden forward-looking factors can help modellers better explain the private car usage usually observed for the entire sequences of daily trips, even in presence of competitive alternative modes. The proposed network transformation also enables us to measure the effect of the requirement/preference to return private vehicles (car, motorcycle, and bicycle) home on mode choices in home-bound trips, and subsequently, on the entire daily mode choice decisions. To validate the proposed model, we utilise the VISTA household travel survey data from the Melbourne Metropolitan area in Australia. The model is compared against baseline models, demonstrating its statistical advantages. Additionally, intuitive illustrations using the data showcase the model’s efficacy. From transport planning and policy perspective, tour-based mode choice modelling provides a more comprehensive and precise understanding of travel behaviour by considering the sequence of trips made by an individual. This can help capture the interactions and dependencies between different trips, which trip-based models may overlook. The proposed model is more suitable for analysing the effects of policy interventions like congestion pricing, public transport investments, or new mobility initiatives, as they can better represent the cascading effects of such policies across multiple trips.

The influence of dark triad-specific personality traits (Machiavellianism, narcissism, psychopathy) on parenting styles, and parental competence in raising and educating children

This study aims to determine the existence of an association between the Dark Triad personality traits, parental competence, and parental styles. The parentsʼ personality traits, particularly those of the Dark Triad, may serve as predictors of the child's level of development, educational path choices, academic outcomes, well-being, and overall development. It is of utmost importance to identify these traits to better understand the parents’ behaviour and the potential harm the parent's strategies may inflict on the child. The Dark Triad-specific personality traits can lead to authoritarian, selfish, lacking empathy, and even manipulative behaviors that can significantly and negatively impact a child's life. The research sample includes 609 respondents who fulfil the role of parent. The results revealed that parents' Machiavellian personality traits may be associated with an authoritarian or permissive parenting style, but not with a democratic parenting style. Also, the level of parental competence varies depending on the background of the parents and may be influenced by their psychopathic personality traits.

Comparison of methods for using risk information in path planning for autonomous surface vessels

Abstract Path planning is an essential part of autonomous surface vessel (ASV) operations. Risk models can be used to give estimates of risk related to the operation of technical systems, such as ASVs. Combining risk models directly with control systems can be a way to make autonomous systems more capable of assessing and evaluating risk, and in this way allow them to make better decisions. Focusing on path planning, this study aims at investigating how an online risk model used to inform an ASV of risk compares to a static safety domain. The results show that the paths selected when using the risk model can consider different environmental conditions, and the choice of path can be adapted based on how conservative the ASV should be with respect to risk. In this way the risk model provides a more detailed basis for making decisions than the static safety domain.

Analysis of the mass survey data reliability (using the example of smoking prevalence in Russia estimates)

Survey-based estimates of smoking prevalence in Russia, given by various quite respectable organizations for the same period, range from less than 20% to more than 50%. This scatter cannot be explained by differences in the conceptualization of the indicator (who is considered a smoker) and significantly affects the overall picture of smoking in Russia and the assessment of the success of anti-tobacco policy. This raises questions about the reliability of the relevant survey data. It can be solved in at least two ways: by analyzing and eliminating discrepancy factors or by choosing one of the studies as a reference with a thorough check of the reliability of its data. The article substantiates the choice of the second path and the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) as a reference. To check its reliability, three criteria were used: analysis of critical publications about research errors, methodological triangulation (comparison with data from other methods) and analysis of correlation with the consequences of smoking. All three criteria showed a high level of reliability of the RLMS data. The hypothesis about the research error put forward in critical publications does not find empirical confirmation. Comparison with other supposedly reliable data (both survey and non-survey) shows discrepancies below the margin of statistical error. The correlation of RLMS data on smoking with mortality from diseases of the circulatory system turns out to be extremely high. Therefore, it is advisable to consider the RLMS as a reference source of data on the prevalence of smoking in Russia, and indicators from other surveys that differ significantly from it as potentially questionable in their methodological decisions.

Digital Inclusive Finance Supports the Modernization of Agriculture Development

In the process of financial development, the high threshold and credit asymmetry not only increase the difficulty and cost of financing in rural agriculture, but also hinder the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure and delay the development of agricultural modernization. With the development of information technology and the wide application of big data, digital inclusive finance has become an important path and inevitable choice to promote the upgrading and modernization of China's agricultural industrial structure. The project intends to use the entropy method to measure the development level of agricultural modernization; Based on the two-way fixed effect model, the paper explores the effect of digital inclusive finance on agricultural modernization. With the help of the intermediary effect model, this paper explores the internal mechanism of the influence of the digital inclusive financial policy on the development of rural modernization from the level of "the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure". Based on the empirical results, this paper analyzes the heterogeneity of the effects of digital financial inclusion policies from the two dimensions of rural location and rural characteristics, and explores an effective path to promote digital financial inclusion and industrial upgrading in rural areas with prominent internal differences, with a view to providing reference and basis for the formulation and implementation of future digital financial inclusion and agricultural modernization development policies.

THE ROLE OF NON-GOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS IN THE SOCIO-PROFESSIONAL ORIENTATION OF YOUNG PEOPLE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE COUNTRY

Purpose of the research. The aim of the study is to elucidate the role of non-governmental organizations in facilitating the social adaptation and professional orientation of the younger generation in the country as a process of providing human resources for the country's economy.Methodology. The research employed systemic, statistical, and comparative analysis methods to assess the role of non-governmental organizations in supporting the socio-professional orientation of young people in Kazakhstan. The authors conducted a literature review of scholarly works on the research topic, which allowed for the examination of similar trends and effective approaches of advanced countries to address this issue, as well as to identify key aspects contributing to the successful socio-professional orientation of young people in the country.Originality / value of the research. The originality and value of the study lie in examining and evaluating the role of non-governmental organizations in supporting the socio-professional orientation of youth in Kazakhstan, taking into account the changes in institutional frameworks in accordance with the new reality. This understanding underscores that effective youth support requires not only the development of corresponding programs and projects but also the alteration of institutional mechanisms in such a way that these programs are successfully implemented and bring maximum benefit to society.Findings. Key aspects related to youth's choice of professional path, crucial for Kazakhstani youth, have been identified. At this stage, young people encounter a range of issues. It has been revealed that the adaptation of institutional mechanisms contributes to the more effective functioning of non-governmental organizations and increases their influence on the socio-professional orientation of youth. Practical recommendations for enhancing interaction between governmental and non-governmental organizations to ensure the most effective support for the socio-professional orientation of youth in Kazakhstan have been formulated. The role of nongovernmental organizations in strengthening institutional capacity in ensuring more consistent, result-oriented support for youth has been justified.

Data driven origin–destination matrix estimation on large networks—A joint origin–destination-path-choice formulation

This paper presents a novel approach to data-driven time-dependent origin–destination (OD) estimation using a joint origin–destination-path choice formulation, inspired by the well-known equivalence of doubly constraint gravity models and multinomial logit models for joint O–D choice. This new formulation provides a theoretical basis and generalizes an earlier contribution. Although including path choice increases the dimensionality of the problem, it also dramatically improves the quality of the data one can directly use to solve it (e.g. measured path travel times versus coarse centroid-to-centroid travel times); and opens up possibilities to combine different assimilation techniques in a single framework: (1) fast shortest path set computation using static (e.g. road type) and dynamic (speed, travel time) link properties; (2) predicting a “prior OD matrix” using the resulting path-shares and (estimated or measured) production and attraction totals; and (3) scaling/constraining this prior using link flows (informative of demand). If the resulting system of equations has insufficient rank, we use principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality, solve this reduced problem, and transform that solution back to a full OD matrix. Comprehensive tests and sensitivity analysis on 7 networks with different sizes and characteristics give an empirical underpinning of the extended equivalence principle; demonstrate good accuracy and reliability of the OD estimation method overall; and suggest that the method is robust with respect to major assumptions and contributing factors.

Capturing impacts of travel preference on connected autonomous vehicle adoption of risk-averse travellers in multi-modal transportation networks

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a reliability-based combined modal split and traffic assignment model for the multi-modal transportation network with uncertainties in which the travellers' travel preferences, vehicle ownership, and the characteristics of connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are considered. Travellers are classified into captive travellers and choice travellers according to their preference for travel modes and vehicle ownership. The choice travellers need to make a tradeoff among the out-of-pocket cost, comfort, and travel time reliability and make decisions between continuing to commute by subway or purchasing a human-driven vehicle (HV) or CAV. The dogit-nested-logit model is adopted to characterise the effect of travel preference on the adoption of CAVs of the choice travellers, and the multinomial logit model is adopted to capture the effect of the differences between HV and CAV on information quality and value of travel time reliability on the path choice behaviour of travellers. The problem is formulated as an equivalent variational inequality model based on the properties of the equilibrium state, and its equivalency and solution existence are discussed. A path-based algorithm is employed for solving the problem, which combines the Monte Carlo simulation-based method and the column generation method. Numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the properties of the proposed models and validate the algorithm.

Policy Assessment and Path Choice of Digital Economy Cooperation between China and Japan

The digital economy is an important driving force for economic growth and transformation in countries around the world, and both China and Japan have introduced a large number of strategies and policies related to the digital economy at the national level. Although there is a good foundation for cooperation between China and Japan, and many successful cases of cooperation have been formed in the field of digital economy by virtue of their respective Advantages, there still have several challenges to China-Japan bilateral cooperation in the digital economy, such as the instability of bilateral political relations, the lack of a unified system of rules for international digital governance, and social difficulties, aging and childlessness for example. If China and Japan can correctly understand and deal with their differences, seek common ground while reserving differences, enhance their Advantages and avoid their Disadvantage, and take the RCEP as an opportunity to build unified and higher-level digital economic governance rules, their digital economic cooperation will achieve greater results.

Empowering air quality prediction through "AI + big data technology" in the perspective of environmental lawA quasi-natural experiment analysis based on the "national big data comprehensive experimental zone" pilot program

The current environmental legal system primarily focuses on environmental pollution and ecological damage, yet it does not adequately address climate change as an environmental risk issue. Consequently, environmental law struggles to directly respond to air pollution and climate change. Due to the complexity of air pollution regulation, there is a need for legal frameworks that extend beyond conventional environmental pollution controls. The advent of "AI + Big Data" has provided new momentum and opportunities for predicting and improving air quality. This paper, viewed through the lens of environmental law and based on the policy of the National Big Data Comprehensive Experimental Zone, combined with the Difference-in-Differences (DID) model, outlines the impact mechanisms of Big Data and Artificial Intelligence in empowering air quality prediction and improvement. It also explores the path choices for achieving the objectives of accuracy and effectiveness in air quality prediction from the perspective of environmental law.

The middle-income trap and the middle-technology trap in Latin America–practice comparison based on East Asian perspective

Most Latin American countries entered the ranks of middle-income levels almost simultaneously with Japan and South Korea. However, while Japan and South Korea embarked on the path of economic development through technological innovation and industrial upgrading, Latin America fell into the middle-income trap. By examining the history of industrial and technological development in Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico, three representative countries in Latin America, this paper finds that the fundamental reasons for Latin America falling into the middle-income trap lie in the tension between the choice of industrialization path and primitive accumulation, as well as the institutional deficiencies in technology and industrial development. Latin America, which has fallen into the middle-income trap, finds it hard to upgrade its technology and is trapped in premature industrialization and the middle-technology trap. It can be said that Latin America has fallen into a double trap, which reinforces each other and forms a solid trap pattern. The warning from the Latin American experience is that late-developing countries need to maintain an open attitude during the process of technological catching up, build a complete technological innovation system, enhance industrial and technological governance capabilities, and seize the window of opportunity for technological and industrial upgrading. Otherwise, there is a significant risk of falling into the middle-income trap and even the double trap.

Digital age: The path choice of government-citizen value co-creation

This study explores the relationship between government and citizen in the digital age and proposes a specific path to realize the value co-creation of government and citizen in the digital age. Quantitative analysis of 40 policy texts on “digital government construction” of 30 provincial and municipal governments in China before November 2022 was conducted using NVivo12. The case of Minsheng Cloud revealed that provincial and municipal government departments have not paid sufficient attention to citizen participation. Furthermore, citizens' participation ability and enthusiasm are not high. The study found that in the process of strengthening the construction of digital government, “government optimisation”, “citizen participation”, “governance guarantee”, “data governance” and “government digitization” are the key elements. We discuss the feasibility, necessity and coupling of the value co-creation theory to establish the benign interaction between government and citizens and realize co-creation. We find that the “DART” model can be co-created based on value, and that the continuous Improving the four aspects of “dialogue”, “access”, “transparency” and “risk assessment” will undoubtedly help realize the value co-creation of government and citizens in the digital era, and form a governance pattern of co-construction and sharing. It is therefore of great significance to promote the government's digital construction and digital governance capability to accelerate the construction of digital China and promote the modernisation of the national governance system and governance capability.

The Consistency of Subjective and Objective Factors Influencing Walking Path Choice around Rail Transit Stations

The Consistency of Subjective and Objective Factors Influencing Walking Path Choice around Rail Transit Stations

Theoretical basis and path choice of current industrial structure transformation--Analysis in the perspective of Marxist political economy

The transformation of industrial structure is a key task for realizing high-quality economic development. Different from western economics, which locates the industrial structure and its transformation in the ratio of the three industries of the national economy and their changes, this paper logically analyzes the theoretical content of Marxist political economy, takes into account the "qualities" of the organic composition of capital of the industry, and summarizes the transformation of the industrial structure as the process of optimizing the ratio between the two categories of social reproduction and their intersectoral relations to realize the upgrading of the industry in the contradictory movement of the productive forces and the relations of production. The transformation of industrial structure is summarized as the process of industrial upgrading, in which scientific and technological innovation promotes the adjustment of the organic composition of capital, optimizes the proportion between the two major categories of social reproduction and their respective sectors. This process has different manifestations at micro, meso and macro levels, and is constrained by the objectives of total social reproduction balance, structural balance and productive labor-based. Accordingly, the article proposes that we should base ourselves on the level of development of productive forces, strengthen the real economy, adjust the relations of production, improve the form of ownership, strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control, and promote scientific and technological innovation in order to realize the transformation of China's industrial structure.

The choice of path to resilience is crucial to the future of production forests.

The choice of path to resilience is crucial to the future of production forests.

Self-calibrated transit service monitoring using automated collected data

This paper proposes a self-calibrated transit service monitoring framework that aims to obtain the performance of a transit system using automated collected data. We first introduce an event-based transit simulation model, which allows the detailed simulation of passenger travel behavior in a transit system, including boarding, alighting, and transfer walking. To estimate passenger path choices, we assume the path choices can be modeled using a C-logit model, and propose a simulation-based optimization model to estimate the path choice parameters based on automated fare collection and automated vehicle location data. The path choices can be estimated on a daily basis, which enables the simulation model to adapt to dynamic passenger behavior changes, and output more accurate network performance indicators for regular service monitoring such as train load, passenger travel time, and crowding at platforms. The proposed system eliminates the need for conventional monitoring equipment such as cameras at platforms and scaling/weighing systems on trains. The Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway (MTR) system is used as the case study. Results show that the model can well estimate the path choice behavior of passengers in the system. The output passenger exit flows are closer to the actual one compared to the two benchmark models (shortest path and uniform path choice).

Fork in the road: How self-efficacy related to walking across terrain influences gaze behavior and path choice.

Decisions about where to move occur throughout the day and are essential to life. Different movements may present different challenges and affect the likelihood of achieving a goal. Certain choices may have unintended consequences, some of which may cause harm and bias the decision. Movement decisions rely on a person gathering necessary visual information via shifts in gaze. Here we sought to understand what influences this information-seeking gaze behavior. Participants chose between walking across one of two paths that consisted of terrain images found in either hiking or urban environments. We manipulated the number and type of terrain of each path, which altered the amount of available visual information. We recorded gaze behavior during the approach to the paths and had participants rate the confidence in their ability to walk across each terrain type (i.e., self-efficacy) as though it was real. Participants did not direct gaze more to the path with greater visual information, regardless of how we quantified information. Rather, we show that a person's perception of their motor abilities predicts how they visually explore the environment with their eyes as well as their choice of action. The greater the self-efficacy in walking across one path, the more they directed gaze to it and the more likely they chose to walk across it.