Past Sea-level Changes Research Articles

Integrating age modeling into a hierarchical Bayesian framework for inferring the pattern and rate of past sea-level changes from uncertainty-prone proxy data

Inferring the pattern and rate of past sea-level changes from uncertainty-prone proxy records requires formal statistical analyses, preferably in a hierarchical framework. The commonly used error-in-variables method treats the relative sea level as a collection of random variables drawn from the multivariate Gaussian distribution. However, this method does not make any use of prior information about the sea-level index points as constraints in the inferential process, thereby leading to anomalously large uncertainties for the time periods when observational data are absent. Here, a hierarchical Bayesian model of past sea-level changes is presented. Specifically, the stochastically varying relative sea level is modeled as a piecewise linear process with an additive independent Brownian increment arriving in a Gaussian fashion. The treatment of temporal uncertainties associated with the sea-level index points in the partially observed proxy records also differs from the existing methods. Instead of calibrating the radiocarbon ages individually, the corresponding calendar ages are treated as random variables and inferred recursively according to their temporal order. Illustrative studies using synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the promise of this model.

Effects of using the consistent boundary flux method on dynamic topography estimates

SUMMARY Dynamic topography is defined as the deflection of Earth's surface due to the convecting mantle. ASPECT (Advanced Solver for Planetary Evolution, Convection, and Tectonics) is a continually evolving, finite element code that uses modern numerical methods to investigate problems in mantle convection. With ASPECT version 2.0.0 a consistent boundary flux (CBF) algorithm, used to calculate radial stresses at the model boundaries, was implemented into the released version of ASPECT. It has been shown that the CBF algorithm improves the accuracy of dynamic topography calculations by approximately one order of magnitude. We aim to evaluate the influence of the CBF algorithm and explore the geophysical implications of these improved estimates of dynamic topography changes along the East Coast of the United States. We constrain our initial temperature conditions using the tomography models SAVANI, S40RTS and TX2008, and combine them with a corresponding radial viscosity profile (2 for TX2008) and two different boundary conditions for a total of eight experiments. We perform simulations with and without the CBF method, which takes place during post-processing and does not affect the velocity solution. Our dynamic topography calculations are spatially consistent in both approaches, but generally indicate an increase in magnitude using the CBF method (on average ∼15 and ∼76 per cent absolute change in present-day instantaneous and rate of change of dynamic topography, respectively). This enhanced accuracy in dynamic topography calculations can be used to better evaluate the effects of mantle convection on surface processes including vertical land motions, sea level changes, and sedimentation and erosion. We explore results along the US East Coast, where a Pliocene shoreline has been deformed by dynamic topography change. An increased accuracy in estimates of dynamic topography can improve Pleistocene and Pliocene sea level reconstructions, which allow for a better understanding of past sea level changes and ice sheet stability.

Assessment of Porites microatolls for paleothermometry: Calibration for French Polynesia

Massive dome-shaped coral Porites are the predominant choice for paleoclimate studies due to their consistent and reliable growth. When growing close to sea level, they become limited in their vertical growth and form so-called ‘microatolls’. Microatolls have not yet been extensively explored for paleoclimate reconstruction. Here, we investigate how reliable modern Porites microatolls are against empirical sea-surface temperature using Sr/Ca, δ18O, Li/Mg and SrU paleothermometry methods on samples from the Society Islands, French Polynesia. Our results show Sr/Ca ratios have the lowest Standard Error of the Inverse Prediction (SEIP) at 0.415 °C (N = 41) with a calibration of Sr/Ca (mmol mol−1) = −0.082 ± 0.006 SST (°C) + 11.256 ± 0.170 and with high reproducibility across multiple corals. The reproducibility of δ18O was less good, with SEIP increasing to 0.829 °C (N = 41). Considering methods directly from the literature, Li/Mg ratio empirically corrected for Sr/Ca had the best balance between bias and precision where no local calibration could be available. This study independently evaluates and confirms the suitability of Porites microatolls from well-flushed environments for paleoclimate studies. Fossil dome-shaped Porites grow anywhere between near-surface and roughly 20 m depths which inherently incorporates uncertainty into any sea surface temperature reconstruction. This uncertainty is significantly reduced for microatolls due to their well-constrained bathymetry. The study represents a fundamental step in paleoclimate research targeting consistently near the water-air interface bringing reliability and, especially when combined with their ability to reconstruct past sea-level changes, microatolls have the potential to be central for future paleoenvironmental studies.

Holocene millennial-scale variability of coastal environments on the southern coast of Korea and its controlling factors

AbstractCoastal evolution is influenced by past sea-level changes and resultant shifts from fluvial- to marine-dominant environments and the accompanying significant geochemical and isotopic changes in the water mass and sediments. We investigated the elemental and isotopic features of coastal sedimentary cores (27 m in length) from a small paleo-bay located on the southern coast of Korea to determine such geochemical variability and specify past changes in the bay environment and anoxic conditions and possible links to past climate changes. We analyzed total organic carbon (TOC), total sulfur (TS), their isotopes (δ13CTOC and δ34STS), and pyrite. The δ13CTOC values ranging from −25 to −19‰ (a proxy for terrestrial influence) were lower than average (−22.5‰) before 8300 cal yr BP and since 500 cal yr BP, while the intervening Early to Late Holocene showed higher δ13CTOC values, indicating a shallow coastal environment. The δ34STS values fluctuating between −35 and +5‰ resembled sedimentation rate change. Based on the changes in the ratios of TOC to TS (C/S ratios), sedimentation rate, and δ34STS, we found five possible periods with higher salinity and intensified anoxic conditions at millennial timescales: 8900–8200, 7950–6500, 5200–4300, 3500–2600, and 2000–1100 cal yr BP. These intensified anoxic conditions seem to have been influenced by increased air temperature and sea-surface temperature conditions, which could have intensified the intensity of thermal stratification (less ventilation and mixing) between surface and bottom waters and resultant anoxic conditions.

Ice-core constraints on past sea-level change

Ice-core constraints on past sea-level change

Stability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the pre-industrial Holocene

The rate and magnitude of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) contribution to global sea-level rise beyond 2100 ce remains highly uncertain. Past changes of the AIS, however, offer opportunities to understand contemporary and future ice sheet behaviour. In this Review, we outline how the AIS evolved through the pre-industrial Holocene, 11,700 years ago to 1850 ce. Three main phases of ice sheet behaviour are identified: a period of rapid ice volume loss across all sectors in the Early and Mid Holocene; a retreat inland of the present-day ice sheet margin in some sectors, followed by readvance; and continued ice volume loss in several sectors during the past few millennia, and in some areas up to and into the industrial era. Global sea levels rose by 2.4–12 m owing to the period of rapid Antarctic ice loss and possibly fell by 0.35–1.2 m owing to subsequent readvance. Changes in the AIS during the Holocene were likely driven by similar processes to those acting today and predicted for the future, which are associated with oceanic and atmospheric conditions as well as bed topography. Further work is required to better understand these processes and to quantify Antarctica’s contribution to past sea-level change. The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) underwent dramatic changes over the Holocene, impacting global sea levels. In this Review, Jones et al. discuss changes in this ice sheet during the pre-industrial Holocene. The drivers behind these past changes are explored, as well as their relevance for current and future changes in the AIS.

Distribution of Benthic Foraminifera in Intertidal Sabkha of Al-Kharrar Lagoon, Saudi Arabia: Tools to Study Past Sea-Level Changes

Contemporary foraminiferal sediment samples were collected from the intertidal sabkha of Al-Kharrar Lagoon, Saudi Arabia, to study the vertical distribution of foraminifers and, based on a modern training set, their potential to develop a predictor of former sea-level changes in the area. Based on hierarchical cluster analysis, the intertidal sabkha is divided into three vertical zones (A, B, and C) represented by three foraminiferal assemblages, where agglutinated species occupied Zone A and calcareous species occupied the other two zones. In Zone A (high intertidal), Agglutinella compressa, Clavulina angularis and C. multicamerata are dominant species with a minor presence of Peneroplis planatus, Coscinospira hemprichii, Sorites orbiculus, Quinqueloculina lamarckiana, Q. seminula, Ammonia convexa and A. tepida. In contrast, in Zone B (middle intertidal) the most abundant species are P. planatus, C. hemprichii, S. orbiculus, Q. lamarckiana, Q. seminula and Q. laevigata, while Zone C (low intertidal) is characterized by C. hemprichii, Q. costata, S. orbiculus, P. planatus, A. convexa, A. tepida, Spiroloculina communis, and S. costigera. A transfer function for sea-level reconstruction was developed using a modern dataset of 75 contemporary sediment samples and 99 species collected from several transects across the sabkha. The model provided an error of 0.12 m, suggesting that intertidal foraminifers can be used to assess past sea-level changes with high precision in Al-Kharrar Lagoon, and adjacent regions.

Tl and Osl Dating of Sediments Formed Over the Past Sea-Level Change from Malhada Marsh, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

Tl and Osl Dating of Sediments Formed Over the Past Sea-Level Change from Malhada Marsh, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

Detrital signals of coastal erosion and fluvial sediment supply during glacio-eustatic sea-level rise, Southern California, USA

AbstractCoastal erosion, including sea-cliff retreat, represents both an important component of some sediment budgets and a significant threat to coastal communities in the face of rising sea level. Despite the importance of predicting future rates of coastal erosion, few prehistoric constraints exist on the relative importance of sediment supplied by coastal erosion versus rivers with respect to past sea-level change. We used detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology as a provenance tracer of river and deep-sea fan deposits from the Southern California Borderland (United States) to estimate relative sediment contributions from rivers and coastal erosion from late Pleistocene to present. Mixture modeling of submarine canyon and fan samples indicates that detrital zircon was dominantly (55%–86%) supplied from coastal erosion during latest Pleistocene (ca. 13 ka) sea-level rise, with lesser contributions from rivers, on the basis of unique U-Pb age modes relative to local Peninsular Ranges bedrock sources. However, sediment that was deposited when sea level was stable at its highest and lowest points since the Last Glacial Maximum was dominantly supplied by rivers, suggesting decreased coastal erosion during periods of sea-level stability. We find that relative sediment supply from coastal erosion is strongly dependent on climate state, corroborating predictions of enhanced coastal erosion during future sea-level rise.

Impacts of sea-level changes on mangroves from southeastern Brazil during the Holocene and Anthropocene using a multi-proxy approach

Globally, mangroves are expected to move inland as sea-level rises. However, local characteristics mainly related to mangrove structure, geomorphology and coastal hydrodynamics may change the mangrove response to sea-level rise. The most useful evidence to support projections for the future likely comes from mangrove history reconstruction corresponding to past sea-level changes. This study characterized modern (1985–2018 CE) and past (<6300 cal yr BP) mangrove dynamics according to sea-level changes along two estuarine valleys on the southeastern Brazilian coast to predict the mangrove response to sea-level rise by 2100. Relative Sea-Level (RSL) rise triggered changes from a tidal flat occupied by herbs, palms, tree/shrubs to a lagoon surrounded by mangroves between ~6300 and ~4230 cal yr BP. More recently, the RSL fall converted that lagoon into flats occupied by herbs, trees/shrubs, and palms on higher surfaces, and mangroves on lower flats during the mid-late Holocene. The last thousand years were characterized by a mangrove contraction between 390 and 77 cal yr BP, caused by a RSL fall. By contrast, mangrove expansion began at 77 cal yr BP (1873 CE) and continued after 1950 CE, migrating onto higher tidal flats previously occupied by herbs, palms, and trees/shrubs. Spatial-temporal analysis also indicated a mangrove invasion onto higher flats since 1985 CE. These trends are likely related to RSL rise since the end of the Little Ice Age and they intensified during recent decades, when the lower mangrove boundaries remained stable, and mangroves expanded to higher surfaces. Mangroves, confined between steep surfaces, will expand ~22ha under the influence of a sea-level rise of 98cm by 2100. However, an upstream mangrove migration by 2100 on low and extensive fluvial plains (~4030 ha) will depend mainly on the interaction between fluvial discharge/sea-level rise.

Mid-Holocene coastline reconstruction from geomorphological sea level indicators in the Tràng An World Heritage Site, Northern Vietnam

In this paper we present a high resolution palaeo coastline model for the isolated limestone massif of Tràng An, Ninh Bình province, Vietnam. The archaeological and palaeoecological record here comprise rich archives of human activity set within a landscape that was cyclically transformed between inland and archipelagic states under the influence of past sea level changes. These records have become informative proxies in the study of current sea level rise. Well-preserved notches along the vertical limestone cliffs within the study property reveal several phases of prolonged stable sea levels that likely pertain to the Mid-Holocene marine transgression 8 ka BP to 4 ka BP and allow for detailed coastline reconstructions for parts of the Red River Delta (RRD). The resulting coastline model facilitates a closer look at past human responses to landscape and environmental changes at local and individual site-level, which improves our understanding of past human adaptations to climate-change induced sea level rise. These data also stand to inform current coastal vulnerability assessments and climate change response models.

Last interglacial sea-level history from speleothems: a global standardized database

Abstract. Speleothems (secondary cave carbonate precipitates) are archives of valuable information for reconstructing past sea levels as they are generally protected from weathering and erosion by their location and can be dated with U-series methods. Two main categories of speleothems are recognized as sea-level indicators: phreatic overgrowth on speleothems (POSs) and submerged vadose speleothems (SVSs). POSs have the great advantage that they precipitate on preexisting supports (vadose speleothems or cave walls) at a brackish water level equivalent to sea level when air-filled chambers of coastal caves are flooded by rising sea. SVSs are also useful, but sea level is inferred indirectly as periods of growth provide constraints on maximum sea-level positions, whereas growth hiatuses, sometimes difficult to observe, may indicate times when cave passages are submerged by sea highstands; hence they record minimum sea-level elevations. Here we describe a compilation that summarizes the current knowledge of the complete last interglacial (in its broadest sense from ∼ 140 to 70 ka, also known as marine isotope stage (MIS) 5) sea level captured by speleothems. We used the framework of the World Atlas of Last Interglacial Shorelines (WALIS), a comprehensive sea-level database, to provide a standardized format in order to facilitate scientific research on MIS 5 sea level. The discussion is focused on MIS 5e, but records that capture MIS 5d, 5c, 5b, and 5a are also included. We present the data from 71 speleothems (36 sea-level index points and 37 limiting points) in coastal caves located in 10 different locations, and we include the spatial coverage, the samples used, and their accuracy as indicators of sea level, U and Th isotopes used to generate the chronologies, and their scientific relevance to understand past sea-level changes. Furthermore, the paper emphasizes the usefulness of these indicators not only to render information regarding the eustatic sea level, but also for their contribution to refine the glacial isostatic adjustment models and to constrain regional tectonic uplift rates. The standardized sea-level database presented here is the first of its kind derived from speleothems and contains all the information needed to assess paleo relative sea levels and the chronological constraints associated with them. The database is available open-access at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4313860 (Dumitru et al., 2020). We refer the readers to the official documentation of the WALIS database at https://walis-help.readthedocs.io/en/latest/ (last access: 20 January 2021), where the meaning of each field is explained in detail.

Pollen distribution and transportation patterns in surface sediments of Liaodong Bay, China

Understanding pollen transport pathways and dispersal mechanism from the land to sea is a prerequisite for marine palynological study. Palynological analysis of 164 surface sediment samples in Liaodong Bay, and 39 analogous surface alluvium samples from its five inflowing rivers, identifies the distribution patterns, pathways and possible sources of pollen and spores. The results show that pollen and spore assemblages in surface sediments are well correlated to regional vegetation distribution, and the variations of pollen assemblage in different parts of Liaodong Bay reflected local vegetation changes along the coast. High pollen concentrations are mainly distributed in the estuaries of inflowing rivers, coastal waters and sea muddy areas. The pollen assemblage characteristics of alluvial samples are similar to those from coastal waters with water depths <8.5 m. Samples from the alluvium and surface sediments of coastal waters were dominated by herbaceous pollen taxa including Artemisia, Amaranthaceae, Poaceae, Cyperaceae and Typha. Herbaceous pollen percentages and concentrations decreased as the water depth increased, indicating that pollen and spores in the coastal waters of Liaodong Bay are mainly carried by the inflowing rivers. However, pollen assemblages for samples with water depth >8.5 m are significantly different from those of the alluvium. In samples taken below a depth of 8.5 m, the arboreal pollen is dominated by airborne Pinus, and there is a high number of the waterborne Selaginella fern spores, both of which are sourced from a wider region. In the Liaodong Bay, both wind and ocean current transportation determines the pollen distribution patterns in deeper waters, while fluvial and longshore current transportation determines the pollen assemblages found in shallow waters. The dispersal characteristics of pollen assemblages between the land and the sea in Liaodong Bay provide a theoretical basis for the interpretation of fossil pollen assemblages and past sea level changes.

Responding to sea-level rise: the importance of culture

Sea-level rise is one of today’s most pressing global concerns and the response of coastal communities depends on social, cultural and environmental factors. But coastal inundation does not necessarily lead to coastline abandonment. A record of past sea level and landscape changes spanning 12,000 years reveals that widespread coastal reorganization can take place. - submission by Robert L. Barnett, Sophie L. Ward

Akimiski Island, Nunavut, Canada: The Use of Cree Oral History and Sea-Level Retrodiction to Resolve Aboriginal Title

On 1 April 1999, Akimiski Island of the western James Bay region of northern Ontario, Canada, was included in the newly formed territory of Nunavut, Canada—an Inuit-dominated territory—even though the Inuit had never asserted Aboriginal title to the island. By contrast, the Omushkegowuk Cree of the western James Bay region have asserted Aboriginal title to Akimiski Island. The Government of Canada by their action (or inaction) has reversed the onus of responsibility for proof of Aboriginal title from the Inuit to the Cree. In other words, the Government of Canada did not follow their own guidelines and the common-law test for proof of Aboriginal title. In this paper, we documented and employed Cree oral history as well as a sea-level retrodiction (based on state-of-the-art numerical modeling of past sea-level changes in James Bay), which incorporated a modified ICE-6G ice history and a 3-D model of Earth structure, to establish that criterion 2 of the test for Aboriginal title has now been fully met. In other words, Cree traditional use and occupancy of Akimiski Island was considered sufficiently factual at the time of assertion of sovereignty by European nations. As all the criteria of the common-law test for proof of Aboriginal title in Canada, with respect to Akimiski Island, have now been addressed, the Cree have sufficient basis to initiate the process of a formal land claim.

Holocene relative sea-level changes and coastal evolution along the coastlines of Kamaran Island and As-Salif Peninsula, Yemen, southern Red Sea

Geomorphic features (fossil terraces, notches and sea cliffs) from the southern Red Sea coasts provide valuable indicators of past sea-level change that enable the quantification of both the timing and magnitude of the mid-Holocene sea-level highstand. We demonstrate the utility of wave-cut notches in the southern Red Sea, and present U-series dated sea-level indicators from two locations on the As-Salif Peninsula that suggest a mid-Holocene highstand of ∼0.5–1 m above present mean sea level (apmsl) at about 5–5.4 ka BP. In addition, the similarity of the elevations of the different sea-level indicators at the two locations in As-Salif Peninsula and Kamran Island suggest relative tectonic stability, with limited influence of salt diapirism. Comparison of our data to other estimates of the Red Sea mid-Holocene highstand, and glacio-isostatic predictions suggest that water loading (and deformational response) is the primary factor in the spatial and temporal variability the mid-Holocene highstand, with some possible localized tectonic and neotectonic overprinting.

Reconstructing sea-level change in the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) using salt-marsh foraminifera, diatoms and testate amoebae

Proxy records of past sea-level change provide a means of extending sea-level histories from tide gauges into the pre-industrial period. This is especially valuable in the South Atlantic region where sea-level data are limited to only a few tide-gauge records. Multi-proxy approaches to sea-level reconstruction are relatively rare but have distinct benefits when groups of micro-organisms are sparse or under-represented in modern or fossil sediments. Here, we address this challenge by utilising surface foraminifera, testate amoebae and diatoms from a salt marsh at Swan Inlet, East Falkland. All three micro-organism groups occupied distinct vertical niches in the contemporary salt-marsh. We investigated the relative performance of each group of micro-organisms in providing a sea-level reconstruction using individual (group-specific) regression models and with a multi-proxy regression model that combined all three groups. Foraminifera alone were not a suitable proxy. Surveyed sample elevations were closely matched by estimated elevations using Weighted-Average (WA) and Weighted-Average Partial-Least-Squares (WA- PLS) regressions. Relative sea-level reconstructions were derived by applying each model to microfossil assemblages recovered from a core (SI-2) from the same site. The combined transfer function yielded reconstructive precision (± 0.08 m) comparable to our best single-proxy transfer function (± 0.06 m) but only 18% of palaeo-samples were identified as having “close” or “good” analogues in the combined training data set. We highlight the benefit of a pragmatic approach to sea-level reconstructions whereby additional proxies should be employed if the use of only one proxy performs poorly across the width of the elevation gradient.

Multiproxy analysis of a Lateglacial-Holocene sedimentary section in the Fuegian steppe (northern Tierra del Fuego, Argentina): Implications for coastal landscape evolution in relation to climatic variability and sea-level fluctuations

We report the sedimentology, palynology, geochemistry, and diatom assemblages of a well-dated succession at Laguna Las Vueltas (LV) on the Atlantic coast of the Fuegian steppe in southern Argentina. The multiproxy analysis offers a unique opportunity to study the evolution of this coastal landscape in relation to past sea level and climate changes in the southern high latitudes. After ca. 19,000 cal yr BP, the sediments were subjected to subaerial exposure and oxidation linked to a low sea level. The Sr/Ba ratio (a paleosalinity geochemical parameter) indicates variations in the water body level, and diatoms imply the existence of an ephemeral and brackish-freshwater body subject to desiccation under arid conditions. Between ca. 11,600 and 8500 cal yr BP, a shrubby steppe vegetation, mainly composed of Asteraceae subf. Asteroideae, spread over the coastal area associated with a shallow freshwater body and the deposition of fine-grained sediments in low-energy environments, all indicative of low effective moisture and warm climate conditions. Between ca. 8500 and 8100 cal yr BP, salt carpet vegetation, dominated by Chenopodiaceae, developed around a coastal lagoon in response to the Holocene marine transgression. The record of dinocysts and geochemical data indicate marine influence at this time. Between ca. 8100 and 7000 cal yr BP, salt marshes colonized the coastal area. A coastal lagoon with a more restricted connection to the sea and minor freshwater input are inferred, linked to the beginning of a regressive phase. After ca. 7000 cal yr BP, grassland vegetation and an open shrub stratum developed along with a shallow lake (pan) that was disconnected from the sea, following a fall in the sea level and regression. Fluctuations in the water level of the pan and changes in the physical-chemical conditions, as indicated by fluctuations in Mn/Fe, Ti/Ca, Rb/Sr, Ca, TIC and TOC, suggest abrupt events of desiccation and flooding. Between ca. 4500 and 2000 cal yr BP a drier phase is indicated by changes in vegetation, algal content and geochemistry of the pan. A grassland vegetation and a shallow lake with seasonal water level variations characterized the last 2000 years. Our results from LLV area match well with Andean forest fluctuations and regional climatic conditions recorded from Tierra del Fuego and Chilean southwest.

The proof of the pudding: Past sea-level change

The proof of the pudding: Past sea-level change

Segments and Gaps in Tide Gauge Records

The tide-gauge stations all over the globe frequently include gaps, earthquake deformations of reference level, damages of stations and re-locations of sites. In meaningful reconstruction of past sea level change all such structures must be handled with great care. In the original databases of PSMSL and NOAA they are ignored, invalidating meaningful long-term mean trend analyses.