Past Land Research Articles

Quantifying past forest cover and biomass changes in the Ecuadorian Amazon.

Here, we developed and applied models to quantitatively reconstruct forest cover and biomass changes at three lakes in northwestern Amazonia over the past > 1500 yr. We used remotely sensed data and a modern dataset of 50 Amazonian lakes to develop generalized linear models that predict aboveground biomass, using phytolith morphotypes and forest cover as predictor variables. Also, we applied a published beta regression model to predict forest cover within 200 m of each lake, using Poaceae phytoliths. Charcoal and maize phytoliths were analysed to identify past land use. Results showed forest cover and biomass changes at our study sites ranged between 48-84% and 142-438 Mg ha-1, respectively. Human occupation was discontinuous, with major changes in forest cover and biomass coinciding with periods of land use. Forest cover and biomass decreased notably after fire (at all sites) or cultivation events (Lakes Zancudococha, Kumpaka). The timing and ecological impact of past land use were spatially and temporally variable. Our results suggest past human impact was small-scaled and heterogenous in northwestern Amazonia, with a significant impact of fire on forest cover and biomass changes.

Assessing systematic biases in farmers’ local weather change perceptions

Scientific data concerning climate change are critical for designing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Equally important is how stakeholders perceive climate change because perceptions influence decision-making. In this paper, we employ spatially-delineated primary surveys to evaluate weather perception biases among corn and soybean farmers located on western frontier of the U.S. Corn Belt where substantial loss of grassland has been documented. We characterize farmers’ perception biases by measuring the gap between survey-based perception reports for three distinct weather indicators (i.e., temperature, precipitation and drought) and corresponding meteorological evidence. About 70% farmers in our sample misperceive past weather changes. Three-fourths of these misperceiving farmers over-estimate local temperatures and drought frequency and 40% of them under-estimate precipitation trends relative to past records. We further find evidence that farmers’ weather change perceptions are systematically biased in a manner that would justify past land use decisions. Particularly, higher cropping incidence on previously protected grasslands effected more farmers to under-perceive drier conditions and over-perceive wetter conditions. Our investigation of perception biases across distinct weather indicators with a reference to past economic decisions enriches the understanding of climate change perceptions and related policies.

Radiocarbon ageing of Indigenous culturally‐significant trees for bushfire management on Minjerribah (North Stradbroke Island), southeast Queensland

SummaryPartnerships between Indigenous People and governments for joint management of ancestral lands, designated as protected conservation areas for biodiversity and cultural heritage, provide an opportunity to leverage accumulated traditional land management knowledge with emerging science. In Australia, veteran or large old trees in natural landscapes are of significant ecological importance, and among the Indigenous communities, they are living monuments to historical cultural practices, but their survival, endurance and long lives are rarely acknowledged to afford them protection. In sub‐tropical Australia, the lack of consistent annual growth rings in stem wood makes it difficult to estimate the age of large trees using methods such as the periodic diameter increment. Ngugi et al., 2020 published radiocarbon (14C) dates using wood core (‘pith‐wood’) samples from 12 Indigenous culturally‐significant trees covering five species on Minjerribah (North Stradbroke Island). Due to the imprecise calendar age results of the single samples used in the original study (Ngugi et al., 2020), subsequent radiocarbon dating of an additional three wood core samples from each tree was undertaken to age the trees more precisely. The revised tree ages ranged from 63 to 531 years and suggest an important role of past Indigenous land management practices into protecting Bugari (Cypress Pine, Callitris columellaris F. Muell.) from deadly crown scorching fires. These results underscore the importance of incorporating Indigenous practices in current fire management strategies and plans. Estimating tree ages based on the periodic diameter increment method overestimated the age relative to that derived from radiocarbon dating. New bias correction factors were developed for adjusting the recorded periodic tree diameter increments.

Empirical evidence and theoretical understanding of ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycle interactions.

Interactions between carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles in terrestrial ecosystems are simulated in advanced vegetation models, yet methodologies vary widely, leading to divergent simulations of past land C balance trends. This underscores the need to reassess our understanding of ecosystem processes, given recent theoretical advancements and empirical data. We review current knowledge, emphasising evidence from experiments and trait data compilations for vegetation responses to CO2 and N input, alongside theoretical and ecological principles for modelling. N fertilisation increases leaf N content but inconsistently enhances leaf-level photosynthetic capacity. Whole-plant responses include increased leaf area and biomass, with reduced root allocation and increased aboveground biomass. Elevated atmospheric CO2 also boosts leaf area and biomass but intensifies belowground allocation, depleting soil N and likely reducing N losses. Global leaf traits data confirm these findings, indicating that soil N availability influences leaf N content more than photosynthetic capacity. A demonstration model based on the functional balance hypothesis accurately predicts responses to N and CO2 fertilisation on tissue allocation, growth and biomass, offering a path to reduce uncertainty in global C cycle projections.

Uranium mining remediation, environmental assessment, and bureaucratic violence environmental sociology

ABSTRACT The US government has called for increased uranium mining to support nuclear energy as a replacement for fossil fuels. At the same time, remediating historical mines has been challenging, leaving Indigenous communities suffering as they fight for the removal of harmful mining waste from decades past. Examining two projects and their environmental assessments in the Navajo Nation, this study identifies how settler colonialism extends through state decision-making in the push for nuclear power. Promoting environmental justice, yet approving licenses for new mines and waste storage in Indigenous communities, constitutes a form of bureaucratic violence in which policies and procedures legitimate harm. State power is extended through claims of scientific legitimacy and participatory process, while defending decisions as just. The analysis of these processes shows how past land dispossession leads to forever environmental, ecological, and social damage under the guise of regulatory protection.

Human-induced landscape modification in the in the last two centuries in the Po delta plain (northern Italy)

Historical maps with high degree of accuracy permit quantitative reconstructions of past land use and land cover (LULC), crucial to assess the impact of human activities on landscape evolution. After georeferencing in a modern reference system, the Carta del Ferrarese commissioned by Napoleon Bonaparte and completed in 1814, has been used to quantify the changes in LULC, occurred in the last two centuries in the Po delta plain. The map depicts a palaeo-landscape dominated by wetlands (49% of the study area) and agricultural areas (41%), whereas forests appear already largely depleted (5%). The Piantata Padana, a traditional agroforestry system with live trees used to support grapevines, is dominant (62% of the agricultural areas). The comparison with the 2014 LULC map highlights a dramatic reduction (85%) of wetland areas and the replacement of the Piantata Padana with bare arable lands, with the consequent removal of 4-40 million trees. Soils of areas formerly occupied by wetlands show high organic-carbon content, highlighting the potential of humid areas in carbon sequestration. Land reclaiming, prompted by the introduction of steam pumps, favoured the economic development of the area, but concurred to CO2 emissions through the oxidation of soil organic substances, energy consumption from pumping stations, and the extensive use of hydrocarbon fuels in agriculture. Although urbanisation is limited in the Po delta plain, this area appears nowadays largely shaped by human activities, with the dominance of lands devoted to agriculture, dissected by a dense network of draining channels. The landscape changes recorded in the last two centuries in the Po coastal plain have been uniquely driven by human activities, like in several coastal plains worldwide.

The Extent of Agricultural Land Cover Change: The Case of Bautista, Pangasinan

Urban Expansion in Bautista periodically alters its land cover, significantly diminishing agricultural land in favor of built-up areas. Therefore, a comprehensive investigation of past and future land cover changes is essential for sustainable development. The main objective of this research is to determine the extent of agricultural land cover change and its spatial pattern from 2018 to 2022 and in the year 2027 in Bautista, Pangasinan. This study employed a descriptive research approach integrating time series data, spatial analysis, and simulation tools to evaluate the dynamic changes in agricultural land cover. The extent of agricultural land cover change decreased from 3,480.95 hectares in 2018 to 3,417.04 hectares in 2022, primarily near road networks and within the identified urban barangays of the municipality. The change exhibited a clustered distribution, as per the summary report from the Average Nearest Neighbor using the Geographic Information System. In contrast, built-up land cover change expanded by 60.68 hectares from 2018 to 2022, following an increasing trend. Furthermore, the projected agricultural land cover change is expected to decrease continuously from 3,417.039 hectares in 2022 to 3,406.875 hectares in 2027. The results indicate a conversion of agricultural land to built-up areas between 2018 and 2022 and a further decrease in 2027, reflecting a shift from agriculture to man-made structures. This research underscores the importance of monitoring land conversions and provides a basis for sustainable solutions to address the growing demand for urbanization without compromising the future extent of agricultural land cover in Bautista, Pangasinan.

Natural forest colonisation as a management strategy to restore soil functioning of abandoned agricultural lands

Abstract Land abandonment promotes forest expansion into abandoned agricultural lands in Europe. This process leads to changes that affect several ecosystem services, but it is considered a low‐cost strategy to restore soil functions in past agricultural lands. Soil microbial communities play a key role in restoring functions. However, the relationship among forest expansion, microbial communities, and soil functioning is unclear. In this study, we used a Juniperus thurifera expansion gradient on abandoned agricultural lands in Alto Tajo National Park (Spain) to discover the changes elicited by the soil microbial communities and their functions along this gradient considering two microhabitats, under the canopy and open areas. Specifically, our objectives were (i) to analyse how soil properties (organic matter and pH), microbial communities (using PLFAs‐NFLAs) and enzymatic activities (related to C, N and P cycling) varied along the forest expansion gradient and between microhabitats and (ii) to decipher the pathways by which soil properties control the carbon and nutrient cycling in soils. The forest expansion gradient had a direct negative effect on phosphatase activity. The microhabitat showed a positive direct effect on organic matter content, pH, actinomycetes and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi biomass and on soil C and P cycling. Moreover, the biomass of gram‐positive bacteria determined the biomass of other microbial groups. Synthesis and Applications: Though its effectiveness is variable, passive restoration can be more effective than active restoration. Our research indicates that passive tree colonisation of past agricultural land is enough to achieve soil functionality similar to a mature forest for most variables studied. However, some variables would need more time to reach mature forest levels, such as total microbial biomass and organic matter content. Therefore, to support ecosystem recovery, the management of this applied forest ecology strategy requires continuous monitoring of newly established trees and soil to elucidate the time needed to achieve mature soil properties.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal diversity in agricultural fields is explained by the historical proximity to natural habitats

Soil microbes are essential to maintain terrestrial ecosystem functionality. However, their diversity is threatened by land-use change, such as agricultural expansion and intensification. One important microbial group mediating the exchange of nutrients between plants and soil is arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi. The response of microorganism diversity to present and past habitat amount has been poorly studied. Here, we evaluate the potential role of current and historical natural habitat availability in explaining the diversity of AM fungi in arable fields. We conducted a spatially intensive sampling of three agricultural fields in Estonia. Soil AM fungal diversity was determined by soil DNA metabarcoding. We related AM fungal species richness, along with beta diversity components (turnover and nestedness), to abiotic conditions and natural habitat area availability at different spatial scales and time periods. Our findings showed a positive relationship between AM fungal richness and the amount of natural habitat area. Specifically, current AM fungal species richness was best explained by the amount of natural habitat from 130 years earlier, indicating a legacy effect of past land use on current soil biodiversity. The amount of past natural areas was negatively related to the beta diversity turnover component, indicating a replacement of AM fungal species in disturbed sites. While biodiversity-friendly farming is useful in promoting diverse soil biota, historical legacies can be persistent. Maintaining natural habitats around agricultural fields can further promote soil AM fungal diversity for future generations.

Synergistic effects of climate and land use change on khulan (Equus hemionus hemionus) habitat in China

Climate and land use change are the primary drivers causing the reduction of habitat range for many species worldwide, especially wide-ranging and large-bodied ungulates. For instance, khulan (Equus hemionus hemionus), a flagship species inhabiting desert regions of Asia, exhibits heightened vulnerability to habitat loss and fragmentation due to their extensive habitat requirements. We simulated suitable khulan habitats in China across 20 scenarios, including the past (1980–2000), current (2001–2022), and future (2050 s and 2070 s) climate and land use change scenarios. For each scenario, we identified the suitable habitat area and evaluated the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs). Our findings revealed a decline in khulan habitat area from 133,006 km2 in the past to 60,141 km2 at present. Future scenarios indicate further reductions in potential khulan habitat, with more negative impacts resulting from climate change than land use change. Northern Xinjiang is expected to persist as a primary area of both in-situ and ex-situ refugia for khulan in future scenarios. Although suitable habitat within existing PAs is smaller than that outside, the rates of habitat loss and fragmentation outside the PAs surpass those inside PAs. These findings emphasize the importance of effective management strategies for PAs as crucial goals for ongoing conservation efforts for the khulan. Our models suggest that future suitable habitat for khulan will be situated along the international border between China and Mongolia, adjacent to protected areas in Mongolia utilized by khulan. Enhancing connectivity between these habitats could significantly contribute to improving both the climate and genetic resilience of khulan populations.

Nature‐based shoreline protection in newly formed tidal marshes is controlled by tidal inundation and sedimentation rate

AbstractMany tidal marshes have been lost by past land use changes, but are nowadays increasingly restored and created to provide valuable ecosystem services such as nature‐based flood and erosion protection along estuarine shorelines. To be functional for flood and shoreline erosion protection, restored and created tidal marshes should develop erosion resistant sediment beds. Here, we investigated which factors drive the spatial variations in sediment strength and erosion resistance in a developing tidal marsh restoration site. Our results show that decreasing tidal inundation frequency, decreasing sedimentation rate, and better drainage led to stronger consolidation in deeper sediment layers. This consolidation resulted in greater sediment strength, quantified here by shear strength and penetration resistance. Generally, sediment strength was greater when sediment had higher bulk density, while a higher water and fine fraction (= clay and silt) content decreased sediment strength. Overall, all measurement locations were relatively erosion resistant, likely caused by the dense root network and cohesive sediment. To restore or create resilient tidal marshes for nature‐based flood and shoreline erosion protection, we should thus aim for sites with relatively low tidal inundation frequency, moderate sedimentation rates, and cohesive sediment mixtures of clay, silt, and sand, which are well drained and have potential for vegetation establishment. These conditions have a high likelihood of resulting in restored or created tidal marshes that contribute to nature‐based flood and shoreline erosion protection.

Luxury Effect, Heritage Effect, and Land Use Hypotheses Revealing Land Cover Distribution in Hainan Island, China

Land cover analysis is a key method used to understand past land use patterns and explore the driving forces and processes behind them. This study focuses on land cover in 18 counties and cities of Hainan Island, delving into the driving factors of land cover in specific areas of Hainan Island, including the southern, northern, eastern, western, inland, and coastal regions. The effects of socio-economic factors, landscape pattern, and urban functional units on land cover are considered, and three hypotheses are proposed to explain the observed trends. The results indicate that house prices are positively correlated with construction area, woodlands land, and urban green space, thereby supporting the luxury effect hypothesis on land cover. In addition, construction age was negatively correlated with the woodlands area, confirming the role of the inverse legacy effect hypothesis in land cover. Other relationships between urban functional units and land cover emphasized the importance of the land use hypothesis in land cover planning. These results will help decision-makers and managers to better understand the current drivers of land cover, allowing for a more scientific basis when planning and managing urban land cover.

Spatiotemporal Variations in Urban Wetlands in Kazakhstan: A Case of the Taldykol Lake System in Astana City

Acquiring a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban wetlands in Kazakhstan is crucial for their effective preservation and sustainable urban development. Our findings identify past and present Land Use Land Cover (LULC) in the capital city, providing policymakers with scientific evidence for improved management. Using remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, this study examines the spatiotemporal changes in the Taldykol catchment area during the rapid development of Astana. In 1992, over 90% of the catchment area was grassland and vegetation. By 2022, 30% of the area became barren land. Urban areas increased by 127%, and water areas decreased by 24%. The most significant changes occurred in lakes Taldykol and Kishi Taldykol, whose areas shrank by 91% and 54%, respectively. The near-disappearance of the Taldykol wetlands is likely to contribute to rising land surface temperatures (LST), decreased natural flood control capacity, reduced biodiversity, and diminished recreational opportunities. The fate of Taldykol lakes underscores the urgent need to raise public awareness about the role of wetlands in Kazakhstan’s ecosystems and take action to preserve urban wetlands.

The potential of in situ cosmogenic 14CO in ice cores as a proxy for galactic cosmic ray flux variations

Abstract. Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) interact with matter in the atmosphere and at the surface of the Earth to produce a range of cosmogenic nuclides. Measurements of cosmogenic nuclides produced in surface rocks have been used to study past land ice extent as well as to estimate erosion rates. Because the GCR flux reaching the Earth is modulated by magnetic fields (solar and Earth's), records of cosmogenic nuclides produced in the atmosphere have also been used for studies of past solar activity. Studies utilizing cosmogenic nuclides assume that the GCR flux is constant in time, but this assumption may be uncertain by 30 % or more. Here we propose that measurements of 14C of carbon monoxide (14CO) in ice cores at low-accumulation sites can be used as a proxy for variations in GCR flux on timescales of several thousand years. At low-accumulation ice core sites, 14CO in ice below the firn zone originates almost entirely from in situ cosmogenic production by deep-penetrating secondary cosmic ray muons. The flux of such muons is almost insensitive to solar and geomagnetic variations and depends only on the primary GCR flux intensity. We use an empirically constrained model of in situ cosmogenic 14CO production in ice in combination with a statistical analysis to explore the sensitivity of ice core 14CO measurements at Dome C, Antarctica, to variations in the GCR flux over the past ≈ 7000 years. We find that Dome C 14CO measurements would be able to detect a linear change of 6 % over 7 ka, a step increase of 6 % at 3.5 ka or a transient 100-year spike of 190 % at 3.5 ka at the 3σ significance level. The ice core 14CO proxy therefore appears promising for the purpose of providing a high-precision test of the assumption of GCR flux constancy over the Holocene.

Soil organic matter persistence in hyperhumic colluvial soils caused by palaeofires, root inputs and mineral binding

Understanding the formation of long-term persistent soil organic matter (SOM) is key to optimizing soil management and predicting the response of the terrestrial organic carbon (OC) pool to climate change, yet our knowledge of the soil-type dependent weight of different stabilization pathways (e.g., recalcitrance and mineral binding) is fragmentary. Owing to their stratigraphy, the exceptionally SOM-rich (up to 2 m of mineral soil with >5% OC) colluvial slope deposits of Atlantic Europe (Haplic Umbrisol [colluvic/hyperhumic]) are archives of palaeo-environmental conditions including SOM formation pathways. The objective of this study was to determine how the different drivers of persistent SOM formation influenced the formation of these organic-rich soils. For this purpose, we use Holocene (∼9000 yrs) molecular composition records obtained from pyrolysis-GC–MS (Py-GC–MS) and thermally assisted hydrolysis and methylation (THM-GC–MS). The results emphasize three pathways to stability (i.e., persistence on millennial timescales): 1) palaeofires that generated recalcitrant pyrogenic SOM, 2) release of root-derived aliphatic macromolecules (suberin-like SOM), and 3) formation of microbial necromass. Pathways 1 and 2 are controlled by land use: Pathway 1 was relatively important under intense anthropogenic fire regimes and pyrophytic shrubland expansion; Pathway 2 was stimulated during early forest phases and under pasture conditions, when past societies focused vegetation management on grazing instead of fire; Pathway 3 was controlled by binding with aluminium-dominated mineral phases. However, we found indications that Pathway 2 (suberin input and preservation) relied partially on sorptive preservation as well. Aided by structured equation modeling (SEM), we show that the formation of persistent SOM pools was driven by balanced weights of i) microbial vs. plant-derived SOM and ii) intrinsic chemical properties of SOM (recalcitrance continuum) vs. mineral binding/occlusion, which varied in keeping with interactions between past land use, topography and vegetation. These findings are inconsistent with the prevalent paradigm of persistent SOM formation by sorptive/occlusive preservation of microbial necromass alone.

Detection of Hunting Pits using Airborne Laser Scanning and Deep Learning

ABSTRACT Forests worldwide contain unique cultural traces of past human land use. Increased pressure on forest ecosystems and intensive modern forest management methods threaten these ancient monuments and cultural remains. In northern Europe, older forests often contain very old traces, such as millennia-old hunting pits and indigenous Sami hearths. Investigations have repeatedly found that forest owners often fail to protect these cultural remains and that many are damaged by forestry operations. Current maps of hunting pits are incomplete, and the locations of known pits have poor spatial accuracy. This study investigated whether hunting pits can be automatically mapped using national airborne laser data and deep learning. The best model correctly mapped 70% of all the hunting pits in the test data with an F1 score of 0.76. This model can be implemented across northern Scandinavia and could have an immediate effect on the protection of cultural remains.

Improving Subseasonal Soil Moisture and Evaporative Stress Index Forecasts through Machine Learning: The Role of Initial Land State versus Dynamical Model Output

Abstract The effect of machine learning and other enhancements on statistical–dynamical forecasts of soil moisture (0–10 and 0–100 cm) and a reference evapotranspiration fraction [evaporative stress index (ESI)] on subseasonal time scales (15–28 days) are explored. The predictors include the current and past land surface conditions and dynamical model hindcasts from the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S). When the methods are enhanced with machine learning and other improvements, the increases in skill are almost exclusively coming from predictors drawn from observations of current and past land surface states. This suggests that operational S2S flash drought forecasts should focus on optimizing use of information on current conditions rather than on integrating dynamically based forecasts, given the current state of knowledge. Nonlinear machine learning methods lead to improved skill over linear methods for soil moisture but not for ESI. Improvements for both soil moisture and ESI are realized by increasing the sample size by including surrounding grid points in training and increasing the number of predictors. In addition, all the improvements in the soil moisture forecasts predominantly impact soil moistening rather than soil drying—i.e., prediction of conditions moving away from drought rather than into drought—especially when the initial soil state is drier than normal. The physical reasons for the nonlinear machine learning improvements are also explored. Significance Statement Rapidly intensifying droughts pose extra challenges for predictability. Here, dynamical forecast model output is combined with nonlinear machine learning methods to improve forecasts of rapid changes in soil moisture and the evaporative stress index (ESI).

Changing with the times: From agricultural potential to spatially explicit reconstructions of past land use

Past land-use reconstructions are a key tool for studying long-term human ecodynamics and addressing pressing questions about the origins and evolutionary dynamics of the Anthropocene. In particular, agricultural landcover reconstructions are vital for understanding long-term human-environment dynamics. Most past agricultural land-use models, however, rely heavily on modelling assumptions, make limited use of known archaeological site locations to constrain or inform their estimates and tend to be limited to general estimates of percentages of plant types within catchments around pollen trapping lakes. The lack of information outside catchment areas and low spatial resolution even within catchments constrain the utility of these models. To address this problem, we propose a new approach that combines archaeological predictive modelling with pollen-based agricultural landcover reconstructions to produce more accurate, spatially explicit past landcover estimates. Here, we present the results of a case study deploying the new approach to produce improved past landcover maps for a region in the Western Taurus Mountains, southwestern Turkey. The study area surrounds Sagalassos, an antique urban centre with a regional settlement history encompassing nine millennia. We produced five archaeological predictive models for the study region using the ‘Locally Adaptive Models of Archaeological Potential’ (LAMAP) method spanning the Hellenistic through Late Ottoman period. We then combined those predictive surfaces with ‘Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites’ (REVEALS) pollen landcover reconstructions for the same periods based on pollen from sediment cores extracted from three catchments within the study area. Lastly, we compared the resulting hybrid landcover models to the archaeological record using data not used to make the predictions. We found that the hybrid landcover model aligned very well with the known extents of agricultural land-use from the study area. These results indicate that the proposed approach is a viable way to combine pollen-based landcover models with archaeological data and produce more accurate, empirically-based landcover reconstructions reflecting real human activity in the past.

Unveiling the dynamics of urbanization and ecosystem services: insights from the Su-Xi-Chang Region, China

Assessing the impact of past and future urban land expansion on ecosystem services (ESs) is essential for the sustainable management of urban landscapes. Despite recent progress, it remains challenging to determine the influence mechanism of different urbanization stages and areas on ESs and their trade-offs/synergies. Here, we analyzed the responses of four ESs and their trade-offs/synergies to the spatial and temporal differentiation of urbanization in the Su-Xi-Chang region of China from 1990 to 2050. The results showed that the relationship between ESs and urbanization followed a U-shaped curve from 1990 to 2050. Between 1990 and 2020, urbanization weakened trade-offs and enhanced lose-lose situations, exhibiting an S-shaped curve. From 2020 to 2050, lose-lose situations are expected to diminish, and the curve is projected to display a downward trend. Our findings suggest the implementation of compact urban development, sustainable agricultural practices, reforestation, and the conversion of farmland to lakes.

Looking at the modern landscape of submediterranean Greece through a palaeoecological lens

The importance of understanding the long-lasting legacy of past land use on modern ecosystems has long been acknowledged. However, the magnitude and persistence of such legacies have been assessed only occasionally. Northern Greece has been a gateway of farming into mainland Europe during the Neolithic, thus providing a perfect setting to assess the potential impact of land-use history on present-day ecosystems. Additionally, the marked Holocene climatic variability of the southern Balkans makes it possible to investigate climate-vegetation-land use interactions over long timescales. Here, we have studied a sediment record from Limni Vegoritis (Northern Greece) spanning the past ∼9000 years using palaeoecological proxies (pollen, spores, stomata, microscopic charcoal). We aimed to reconstruct long-term vegetation dynamics in submediterranean Greece, to assess the environmental factors controlling them and to establish the legacies of the long history of land use in the modern landscape. We found that the Early Holocene afforestation, mainly oak woodlands, was delayed because of suboptimal moisture conditions. Later, colder and drier conditions during the rapid climate change centred around the ‘8.2 ka event’ triggered woodland opening and the spread of wooded (Juniperus) steppe vegetation. First indicators of farming activities are recorded during this period, but their abundances are too low to explain the concurrent large deforestation episode. Later, pinewoods (probably dominated by Pinus nigra) with deciduous Quercus spread and dominated the landscape for several millennia. These forests experienced repeated multi-centennial setback-recovery episodes associated with land-use intensification, but pines eventually declined ∼2500–2000 years ago during Classical times under heavy land use comprising intense pastoralism. This was the starting point for the present-day landscape, where the main ‘foundation’ taxon of the ancient forests (Pinus cf. nigra) is missing, therefore attesting to the strong imprint that historical land use has left on the modern landscape.