Past Consumption Research Articles

Inverse uncertainty quantification for stochastic systems by resampling. Applications to modeling of alcohol consumption and infection by HIV

A random differential equation, or stochastic differential equation with parametric uncertainty, is a classical differential equation whose input values (coefficients, initial conditions, etc.) are random variables. Given data, the probability distributions of the input random parameters must be appropriately inferred, before proceeding to simulate the model’s output. This task is called inverse uncertainty quantification. In this paper, the goal is to study the applicability of the Bayesian bootstrap to draw inferences on the posterior distributions of the parameters, by resampling the residuals of the deterministic least-squares optimization with Dirichlet weights. The method is based on repeated deterministic calibrations. Thus, to alleviate the curse of dimensionality, the technique may be combined with the principle of maximum entropy for densities, when there are some parameters that are not optimized deterministically. For illustration of the methodology, two case studies on important health topics are conducted, with stochastic fitting to data. The first one, on past alcohol consumption in Spain, taking social contagion into account. The second one, on HIV evolution considering CD4+ T cells and viral load, with a patient in clinical follow-up. All these applied models are built from a compartmental viewpoint, with a randomized basic reproduction number that controls the long-term behavior of the system.

Correlation between serum heavy metals and the risk of oral squamous cell carcinoma and oral potentially malignant disorders

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is a serious public health problem in various Asian countries, including Sri Lanka, and a combination of cultural practices, lifestyle factors, and genetic predispositions influences the incidence of these cancers. The examination of the connection between exposure to heavy metals and the probability of developing oral potentially malignant disorders (OPMD) and OSCC has been limited in its scope, and the overall consequences of such exposure remain largely unknown. This study aims to clarify the link between serum levels of heavy metals and the risk of OSCC and OPMD. The concentrations of seven heavy metals—namely, arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), cobalt (Co), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn)—were analyzed in serum samples from 60 cases and 15 controls in the Sri Lankan cohort. The Inductively Coupled Plasma-Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES) was used for the analysis. Subsequently, the data underwent statistical evaluation via the Kruskal–Wallis H test, using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 28 software, with a confidence interval set at 95%. A p-value less than 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The cohort consisted of 48 men and 27 women, with 15 patients each diagnosed with OSCC, OSF, OLK, and OLP, and 15 healthy controls. The study used the Kruskal–Wallis Test to compare metal concentrations across groups, finding significant differences for all metals except As and Pb. Significant associations were observed between age, past medical history, drug history, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, and betel chewing. The Spearman Correlation test showed significant correlations between the concentrations of Cr, Co, Cu, As, and Zn and the presence of cancer/precancer conditions. The study’s findings suggest that heavy metal contamination may be linked to the development of OSCC and precancerous conditions. When comparing OSCC and OPMD cases with controls, the serum concentrations of As and Pb did not differ significantly. However, Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, and Zn exhibited significantly higher concentrations among cases compared to controls (p < 0.05). This study observed significant variations in the levels of these five heavy metals among cancerous (OSCC), premalignant (OPMD), and healthy tissues, suggesting a potential role in the progression of malignancies. These findings underscore the importance of environmental pollution in this specific context.

Canavanine Content Quantification in Processed Bitter Vetch (Vicia ervilia) and Its Application as Flour in Breads: An Analysis of Nutritional and Sensory Attributes.

Bitter vetch (Vicia ervilia Willd.) is a traditional Mediterranean-West Asian legume, mainly used as livestock feed because of its toxic non-proteinogenic amino acid, canavanine. However, historical sources suggest its past human consumption. Currently, bitter vetch is a minor crop confined to marginal soils in semi-arid regions, presenting a potential alternative protein source amid projected climate changes. This study evaluated the nutritional and sensory attributes of bitter vetch seeds processed through various household methods. Germination and cooking significantly reduced the canavanine content by 28% and 60%, respectively. Incorporating bitter vetch flour (BVF) into wheat bread enhanced protein and fiber contents without substantially altering carbohydrate and lipid levels, and the baking process reduced the canavanine content by 40%. Bitter vetch flour enriched the bread with iron and calcium, contributing significantly to their daily nutritional intakes. Sensory evaluations indicated positive reception for bread with 12% BVF, achieving a balance between nutritional enhancement and consumer acceptance. This study identifies bitter vetch seeds as a valuable resource for improving bread formulations with corrected gluten contents and enhanced protein quality, as measured using protein-digestibility-corrected amino acid score (PDCAAS) values. With strategic processing and formulation adjustments, bitter vetch has the potential to re-emerge as a feasible high-protein grain crop, promoting sustainable farming.

Potential Health Benefits of a Diet Rich in Organic Fruit and Vegetables versus a Diet Based on Conventional Produce: A Systematic Review.

Over the past decade, the production and consumption of organic food (OF) have received increasing interest. Scientific studies have shown better quality of organic fruit and vegetables (FV) in terms of nutrients and pesticide contents, but it appears difficult to conclude if there are potentially greater health benefits of these products compared with conventional food (CF). To determine whether the current scientific literature demonstrates that a diet rich in organic FV is healthier than 1 based on conventional produce. A systematic search was conducted using the PubMed and Web of Science databases for articles published between January 2003 and December 2022. Articles were analyzed uniformly by 2 reviewer, using a specific template summary sheet, and scored from 1 to 5. The level of evidence and the quality of studies in humans were assessed using the Jadad score and the French National Authority for Health method. A total of 12 human studies were included. Studies often reported contradictory or even opposite results, with methodological limitations. Only 6 of the 12 studies found significant associations between OF and the health outcomes evaluated. The current data do not enable a firm conclusion about a greater health benefit for a diet rich in FV based on products grown organically compared with conventional farming. There is a paucity of available data and considerable heterogeneity in study designs (participants, exposures, durations, health outcomes, and residual confounding factors). Well-designed interventional studies are required.

What do phytoliths from pottery cooking vessels represent? Insights from Neolithic Stavroupoli (northern Greece)

The analysis of charred food crust from cooking vessels offers an opportunity to recover and study residues originating from culinary practices, such as phytoliths from cereal-based meals or other plant ingredients, serving as direct evidence of past food preparation and consumption activities. However, the presence of charred food crusts is sporadic in archaeological records, making it challenging to rely solely on them to reconstruct past culinary practices through phytolith analysis. Valuable dietary evidence has also been obtained through the analysis of phytoliths in the sediment adhering to the porous surfaces of ceramic cooking vessels and utensils. However, without the contextual certainty provided by the charred food crust, determining whether the phytoliths recovered from attached sediments represent culinary practices remains a complex task. This paper explores the utility of phytoliths extracted from the sediment attached to the inner walls of cooking vessels for understanding past culinary practices. For this task, phytolith assemblages recovered from charred food crust and the sediment attached to the inner walls of cooking vessels from Neolithic Stavroupoli (ca. 5400–5000 cal. BC) were contrasted to evaluate the similarity between the two assemblages. While this study primarily demonstrates the statistical variation in phytolith assemblages from two distinct sources, the findings offer valuable insights into the feasibility and interpretative value of using phytolith analysis on sediments adhering to cooking vessels to gain insights into past culinary practices, especially in cases where direct food residues, such as charred food crust, are absent.

Analysis of Fish Consumption in the ECOWAS Region and Mauritania: Current Constraints and Future Challenges

The objective of this paper is to present the issues of fish consumption in the ECOWAS region and Mauritania in the context of overexploitation of fishery resources, significant population growth, and increasing food and nutritional insecurity. The method involved compiling data on production (fishing and aquaculture), foreign trade in fishery products, and population to define net supply and apparent consumption. Numerical assumptions were made to project consumption trends up to 2030. The assumptions were based on the identification of past and recent fish consumption trends, incorporating political, ecological, and economic events that could impact the standard of living of West African populations. The results indicate that the production of fishery and aquaculture products in the ECOWAS region and Mauritania increased from 2.1 million to 3.6 million between 2008 and 2022, driven by significant catches in Mauritania and the burgeoning aquaculture industries in Nigeria and Ghana. The reliance on imports to compensate for the production deficit has grown increasingly important. Imports now exceed exports by a factor of three, with an average of 1.9 million tonnes imported compared to 0.6 million exported between 2009 and 2022. Despite a notable increase in fishery product exports from Senegal and Mauritania, this rise has not been sufficient to offset the negative trade balance of the region, exacerbated by substantial growth in imports from Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria. Even with the significant imports, per capita consumption within ECOWAS and Mauritania has decreased from 14 kg to 11 kg between 2008 and 2022. This decline in consumption is projected to continue in the coming decade, dropping to less than 9 kg by 2030. The current state of overexploitation of fish stocks, ecosystem degradation, climate change, and significant population growth do not favor an improvement in fish consumption over the next decade. However, meeting the ever-increasing demand for fishery products in West Africa is possible if radical changes are implemented at the forefront of decision-making processes.

Shedding light on hidden dynamics: partner controlling behavior and women's alcohol consumption in Ghana

BackgroundWhile existing literature suggests a link between alcohol intake and the perpetuation of controlling behaviors, reverse association is yet to be established. Therefore, our study aims to extend the current understanding of the determinants of alcohol consumption among women in Ghana by investigating the association between partner controlling behavior and women’s past month’s alcohol consumption.MethodsThe study relied on data from the 2022 Ghana demographic and health survey. Analysis was based on observations from 5137 women with complete information on partner controlling behavior and past month alcohol consumption. Descriptive statistics, bivariate and multivariate logistic regression were computed. All analyses were executed in STATA version 18.ResultsAbout 15.05% of women consumed alcohol; 37.31% of the respondents had partners who exhibited controlling behaviors. Women who reported experiencing partner controlling behaviors were 1.19 times more likely to engage in alcohol consumption compared to those who did not report such behaviors (AOR = 1.19; 95% CI 1.01–1.41). Additionally, the study identified other significant predictors of alcohol consumption among women, including experiences of sexual violation (AOR = 1.62; 95% CI 1.21–2.15) and richer wealth (AOR = 0.76; 95% CI 0.59–0.97).ConclusionIn conclusion, experiencing partner controlling behavior is associated with higher risk of alcohol consumption. Thus, underscoring the importance of addressing not only individual-level factors but also relational dynamics in understanding and addressing alcohol intake among women. Policy makers and program implementers must prioritize interventions aimed at promoting healthy relationship dynamics and addressing gender-based power imbalances. Furthermore, healthcare providers should be trained recognize and address partner controlling behaviors and sexual violence as part of comprehensive interventions for reducing alcohol consumption among women.

Executive functions and behavioral economic demand for cannabis among young adults: Indirect associations with cannabis consumption and cannabis use disorder.

Behavioral economic demand for cannabis is robustly associated with cannabis consumption and cannabis use disorder (CUD). However, few studies have examined the processes underlying individual differences in the relative valuation of cannabis (i.e., demand). This study examined associations between executive functions and cannabis demand among young adults who use cannabis. We also examined indirect associations of executive functions with cannabis consumption and CUD symptoms through cannabis demand. Young adults (N = 113; 58.4% female; mean age 22 years) completed a Marijuana Purchase Task. Participants also completed cognitive tasks assessing executive functions (set shifting, inhibitory control, working memory) and semistructured interviews assessing past 90-day cannabis consumption (number of grams used) and number of CUD symptoms. Poorer inhibitory control was significantly associated with greater Omax (peak expenditure on cannabis) and greater intensity (cannabis consumption at zero cost). Poorer working memory was significantly associated with lower elasticity (sensitivity of consumption to escalating cost). Lower inhibitory control was indirectly associated with greater cannabis consumption and CUD symptoms through greater Omax and intensity, and poorer working memory was indirectly associated with greater cannabis consumption and CUD symptoms through reduced elasticity. This study provides novel evidence that executive functions are associated with individual differences in cannabis demand. Moreover, these results suggest that cannabis demand could be a mechanism linking poorer executive functioning with heavier cannabis use and CUD, which should be confirmed in future longitudinal studies. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

#1122 Anaemia in CKD and cardiovascular risk; all cut from the same cloth?

Abstract Background and Aims Anaemia in chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been repeatedly associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, but most studies have not investigated its longitudinal association by sex and age. Our aim was to study the association between haemoglobin (Hb) current value and the hazard of major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) in specific subgroups of CKD patients defined by age and sex. Because erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESA) are incriminated to modify the effect of Hb level on the hazard of event for high level of Hb, we have here only focused in non-ESA users CKD patients. Method We used data from the CKD-REIN cohort, which included 3033 patients with moderate to severe CKD from 40 nationally representative nephrology clinics in France between 2013 and 2016. We included patients with at least one Hb, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), transferrin saturation (TSAT) or ferritin measurement. We studied all Hb measurements available until a first MACE defined as the first event among cardio-vascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke or hospitalization for acute heart failure; initiation of kidney replacement therapy; death from other causes; or initiation of ESA therapy, whichever came first. First, we estimated the individual trajectories of Hb, eGFR, TSAT, ferritin using multivariate share random effect joint model. Then, we estimated the association between Hb current value and MACE using a cause specific multivariate Cox model in 4 specific subgroups separately: women ≤ and &amp;gt;70 years, men ≤ and &amp;gt;70 years. All models were adjusted on current value of eGFR, TSAT, Ferritin, and baseline value of albumin-to-creatinine ratio, age, CKD aetiology, heart failure past history, alcohol consumption, iron treatment, antithrombotic and anticoagulant. When appropriate, spline functions were used for continuous variables to account for potential non-linear effects. Reference value of Hb for computing hazard ratio was 12 g/dL in women, and 13 in men according to current definition of anaemia. Results A total of 2742 patients were included in the analysis (median eGFR 33 ml/min/1.73 m2, median age at inclusion 69 years) together with 28423 Hb measurements (median of 13 per patient) collected during a median follow-up of 5.0 years. There were 551 women ≤70 (median Hb 12.4 g/dL, 34 (6.2%) MACE), 349 women &amp;gt; 70 (12.2 g/dL, 61 (17.5%) MACE), 1009 men ≤ 70 (13.4 g/dL, 104 (10.3%) MACE) and 833 men &amp;gt; 70 (13.0 g/dL, 163 (19.6%) MACE). No statistical significant association was found in males whatever their age (Hazard ratio of MACE for each 1 g/dL increase in Hb 1.0 (95% CI 0.9-1.1) in men &amp;lt; 70 and 0.9 (95% CI 0.8-1.1) in men &amp;gt; 70). For women, the hazard of MACE raised as the Hb values decreased, with a more pronounced increase in women &amp;gt; 70 (Fig. 1). For example, the hazard ratio for a Hb value of 10 g/dL compared to the reference was 2.0 (95% CI 0.9-4.7) in women &amp;lt; 70 and 3.3 (95% CI 1.5-7.2) in women &amp;gt; 70. Conclusion In non-ESA users CKD patients, anaemia is associated with the occurrence of MACE in females, especially those older than 70 years. These results raise question about a one-size-fits-all approach in the interpretation of low values of haemoglobin and anaemia management. It also suggests to evaluate the effect of anaemia therapies in men and women separately.

Managing my own health! An ancillary outlook on pharmaceutical and health supplements consumption

PurposeThe surge in pharmaceutical and health supplement usage among consumers aims to enhance personal well-being. This growing opportunity for pharmaceutical brands has resulted in increased market share and intensified industry competition. Using the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), this study aims to identify the factors influencing Malaysians’ choices regarding pharmaceutical and health supplements. In addition, the variable of past behaviour was incorporated to account for consumer decisions based on prior experiences.Design/methodology/approachUsing purposive sampling, 300 questionnaires were gathered and analysed via Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and structural equation modelling technique via Analysis of Moment Structures software to validate the reliability of each variables and the postulated relationships within the research framework.FindingsResults revealed a pronounced impact of past behaviour on the intention to consume pharmaceutical and health supplements. The mediating role of perceived behavioural control in bridging past behaviour and consumption intention was also ascertained. Notably, the findings support the inclusion of past behaviour in the TPB as a pivotal determinant of intention.Originality/valueThe insights gleaned underscore the escalating trend of pharmaceutical consumption in Malaysia, providing strategies to enhance and maintain the competitive edge and market position of pharmaceutical brands.

The Effect of Variety in Past Consumption on Openness to Personalized Recommendation Services

The Effect of Variety in Past Consumption on Openness to Personalized Recommendation Services

The Value of Genetic Data in Predicting Preferences: A Study of Food Taste

The exponential expansion of consumer genetic testing has led to an accumulation of massive genomic data sets owned by governments and firms. The prospect of leveraging genetic data for enhancing consumers' health, well-being, and satisfaction through improved personalization, segmentation, and targeting is promising. Nonetheless, this potential has not been studied empirically to date, and it is unknown whether and when firms should invest resources into incorporating genetic data into strategies and processes. The authors address this gap in a study of taste preferences, important drivers of food and beverage consumption. Using a large U.K.-based sample, they find that with sample sizes currently available, genetic data are expected to significantly improve prediction of taste preferences above traditionally used metrics such as demographics, behavioral variables, and even past consumption, especially for tastes that are uncommon in the local diet (e.g., spicy, sour), as they are less expressed behaviorally. The authors conclude that genetic data show immense promise for prediction-based applications when other data sources are limited or uninformative. These findings could have significant implications for public health initiatives, potentially aiding development of personalized nutrition plans and dietary interventions.

INTERTEMPORAL CONSUMPTION WITH ANTICIPATING, REMEMBERING, AND EXPERIENCING SELVES

AbstractWe study intertemporal choice through a novel and flexible framework that accounts for savoring of future consumption and memories of past consumption. The model uses standard intertemporal budget constraints but enriches preference structures with utility from anticipation, remembering, and experience. We also present an internal commitment mechanism that ensures dynamic consistency. We provide a revealed preference characterization of this model and apply it to quarterly consumption data from Spanish households. Utility from anticipation is important—and time inconsistency not strictly needed—to rationalize consumption patterns in the data.

Does household’s food and nutrient acquisition capacity predict linear growth in children? Analysis of longitudinal data from rural and small towns in Ethiopia

Nutritious foods are unaffordable to the majority of households in lower-income countries. Hence, starchy staples tend to be the main source of diets for men, women, and children, implying poor diet quality and deficiency in key nutrients that are crucial for child’s physical growth and cognitive development. Much of existing studies on child linear growth or stunting examined the impact of current dietary consumption on physical growth even though the effect of diets and nutrition would only be observed with time lag. This study examined the associations between sustained consumption of animal sourced foods (ASFs) and adequate nutrient intakes (measured by the mean nutrient adequacy (MPA)) and linear growth differences among children in rural and small towns in Ethiopia. Using nationally representative longitudinal data, results of fixed effects estimations suggested that a standard deviation increase in the household MPA was associated with a 10–11% increase in the height-for-age z-score; and a 10% increase in the household MPA was associated with a 3.2 – 5.6% reduction in stunting rate in children 6–59 months of age. Results also indicated some associations between past ASFs consumption and current linear growth outcomes in younger children. The gap in the household MPA was over 41%, indicating the need for nutrient-dense ASFs in the household diets despite the sustainability concerns around ASFs. Key implication is that policies and interventions aimed at improving linear growth outcomes of children in rural and small towns in Ethiopia should improve household’s access to ASFs and nutrient acquisition capacity.

Understanding policy amenable risk factors: Alcohol consumption and long-term care use among people over 65 years old

ObjectivesThis study aims to explore the effect of past alcohol consumption frequency on formal and informal long-term care (LTC) use in old age and explore the different channels through which it may affect LTC use. MotivationThe existing literature has mainly focused on risk factors associated with a nursing home entry, but this evidence is outdated, not UK-focused, and does not look into other types of care, such as informal care. The results of this study will help in modelling the future demand for various types of care and the corresponding public spending. MethodsWe use the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) (2002–2017) dataset to conduct longitudinal, individual-level analysis. We explore how the previous frequency of alcohol consumption affects formal and informal care use. We focus on people aged 65 and over with no previous LTC use and run regressions with and without instrumental variables (IV) to estimate how alcohol consumption patterns in the previous wave (2 years before) affect formal and informal care use. For IV regressions, we use the polygenic score for alcohol use, available for a subsample of ELSA respondents, as an instrument while also accounting for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle choices, and health conditions. ResultsThe main IV estimates suggest that frequent alcohol consumption has a weakly significant positive effect on the onset of formal LTC care use compared to none/rare drinking. This relationship diminishes and is not statistically significant when we directly control for health status. We find no statistically significant effect towards informal LTC use. These results contrast with the estimates without IV, which suggest that frequent alcohol consumption is negatively associated with informal care use and no or weakly negative association with formal care use. DiscussionOur findings suggest that unobserved confounding is important when studying the relationship between alcohol consumption and LTC. We hypothesise that primarily alcohol effects LTC through its adverse effect on health. In addition, unobserved factors like preferences towards seeking care, social behaviour may be related to alcohol consumption and affect access to care. We speculate alcohol may have a damaging effect on personal relationships and could indicate the burden eventually falling on formal care. In as far as the polygenic score IV can account for unobserved preference-behaviour differences, the results (weakly) support the hypothesis that these latter processes are relevant, especially for informal care use.

Age differences in patterns of cannabis use among an online US sample of adults who consume cannabis frequently

ABSTRACT Background: Cannabis use is increasing among middle-aged and older US adults, populations that are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of cannabis. Risks for adverse effects differ by cannabis use patterns, which have become increasingly heterogeneous. Nevertheless, little is known about age differences in such patterns. Objective: To investigate age differences in cannabis use patterns, comparing younger (age 18–49), middle-aged (age 50–64), and older adults (age ≥65). Methods: A total of 4,151 US adults with past 7-day cannabis consumption completed an online survey (35.1% male; 60.1% female; 4.8% identified as “other”). Regression models examined age differences in cannabis use patterns. Results: Compared to younger adults, middle-aged and older adults were more likely to consume cannabis during evening hours (50–64: adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.98, 95% CI 2.24–3.96; ≥65: aOR = 4.23, 95 CI 2.82–6.35); by only one method (50–64: aOR = 1.67, 95% CI 1.34–2.09; ≥65: aOR = 3.38, 95 CI 2.24–5.09); primarily by smoking as the only method (50–64: aOR = 1.52, 95% CI 1.29–1.78; ≥65: aOR = 2.12, 95 CI 1.64–2.74); but less likely to consume concentrated cannabis products (concentrates) with extremely high %THC (50–64: aOR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.54–0.93; ≥65: aOR = 0.30, 95 CI 0.16–0.55). Age differences in cannabis use patterns were also observed between middle-aged and older adults. Conclusion: Findings suggest that middle-aged and older adults may engage in less risky cannabis use patterns compared to younger groups (e.g. lower likelihood of consuming highly potent concentrates). However, findings also underscore the importance of recognizing risks unique to these older demographics, such as smoking-related health events. Consequently, prevention strategies targeting such use patterns are needed.

An evolutive model of a boundedly rational consumer with changing preferences and reference group consumption

In this paper, two dynamic models, recently proposed to describe the adaptive repeated choices of a boundedly rational consumer, are joined together. One considers a consumer adjusting the consumption level of a given good over time according to the observed discrepancy between expected and realized utility gain and modifies the utility function according to past consumption experience, also including saturation effects when past consumption is excessive. The other one considers the same adjustment mechanism with constant preferences but with a behavioral effect that introduces a tendency (or bias) to imitate a reference group of consumers. Merging these two models, a two-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system is obtained which describes consumers that decide their next period consumption of a given good by following two different (sometimes contrasting) criteria: their own utility maximization on the one side and imitation of a reference group of consumers on the other side. This leads to a greater uncertainty with respect to the model without the behavioral bias. Such uncertainty is studied through a numerical exploration of the long-run dynamics, guided by some global dynamical features of the nonlinear model, such as the folding action of the critical curves that characterize the behavior of the iterated noninvertible map and the singularities related to the presence of a vanishing denominator, namely focal points and prefocal curves. So, the aim of the paper is twofold: on the one side, it tries to contribute to the literature on the economic theory of boundedly rational consumers represented by evolutionary and behavioral approaches; On the other side, it tries to contribute to the recent literature about the global analysis of discrete dynamical systems characterized by contact bifurcations leading to the creation of complex topological structures of the attractors and their basins of attraction.

Fuzzy Clustering-Based Deep Learning for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Power Grid Systems Using Time-Varying and Time-Invariant Features.

Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for power grid systems to ensure reliability, security and cost efficiency. Thanks to advanced smart sensor technologies, time-series data related to power load can be captured for STLF. Recent research shows that deep neural networks (DNNs) are capable of achieving accurate STLP since they are effective in predicting nonlinear and complicated time-series data. To perform STLP, existing DNNs use time-varying dynamics of either past load consumption or past power correlated features such as weather, meteorology or date. However, the existing DNN approaches do not use the time-invariant features of users, such as building spaces, ages, isolation material, number of building floors or building purposes, to enhance STLF. In fact, those time-invariant features are correlated to user load consumption. Integrating time-invariant features enhances STLF. In this paper, a fuzzy clustering-based DNN is proposed by using both time-varying and time-invariant features to perform STLF. The fuzzy clustering first groups users with similar time-invariant behaviours. DNN models are then developed using past time-varying features. Since the time-invariant features have already been learned by the fuzzy clustering, the DNN model does not need to learn the time-invariant features; therefore, a simpler DNN model can be generated. In addition, the DNN model only learns the time-varying features of users in the same cluster; a more effective learning can be performed by the DNN and more accurate predictions can be achieved. The performance of the proposed fuzzy clustering-based DNN is evaluated by performing STLF, where both time-varying features and time-invariant features are included. Experimental results show that the proposed fuzzy clustering-based DNN outperforms the commonly used long short-term memory networks and convolution neural networks.

Cannabis use in the UK: a quantitative comparison of individual differences in medical and recreational cannabis users.

There is a paucity of research, especially in the UK, that investigates individual differences in both medical and recreational cannabis users. A cross-sectional survey study design was used to assess recreational cannabis users and medical cannabis users currently living in the UK. Recreational cannabis users were invited to take part via social media. Medical cannabis users were recruited from Sapphire Medical Clinics, London, UK, which provides treatment with prescribed cannabis-based medicinal products. Demographic data and cannabis use frequency, as well as post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms (PCL-5), depression symptoms (Centre for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale), trait and state anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory), and cannabis use motives [Comprehensive Marijuana Motives Questionnaire (CMMQ)] were collected. The Chi-square and independent-sample t-tests were used for the comparison of categorical variables and normally distributed continuous variables. Data were analyzed using analyses of variance (ANOVAs) and t-tests. Statistical significance was considered where the value of p was <0.05. The survey was completed by 161 participants. Medical cannabis users were older, consumed cannabis more often, had a higher "Sleep" motive on the CMMQ, and had a higher prevalence in self-reporting current diagnoses of neurological problems, mood disorders, and anxiety disorders (p < 0.05). Recreational cannabis users had higher scores on several motives for use (e.g., "Enjoyment," "Coping," "Experimentation," "Boredom," and "Celebration") and higher state anxiety scores (p < 0.05). The most common motives for cannabis use in both groups were "Enjoyment," "Low Risk," and "Sleep." There were no differences between groups in gender, "Low-Risk" motive, post-traumatic stress disorder symptoms, depression scores, trait anxiety scores, self-reported prevalence of substance use-related disorders, and past consumption of alcohol, tobacco, or caffeine (p > 0.05). The current study not only demonstrates a difference in age and motivations for cannabis consumption between recreational and medical cannabis users but also shows areas of potential overlap, including mental health outcomes, past substance use, and gender. These UK-specific findings indicate that recreational cannabis users experience higher state anxiety, highlighting the need for further evaluation of potential anxiogenic/anxiolytic properties of cannabis. These findings demonstrate the importance of researching individual differences in cannabis users and hold significant implications for future research, clinical practice, and legislation.

Has learning gone to waste?-Health-promoting behaviors of seniors.

Regardless of the fact that Universities of Third Age (UTA's) are becoming more and more popular among seniors there are not many available studies examining the impact of conducted educational activities on seniors' adherence to health-promoting activities. The aim of the study was to compare health behaviors (e.g.,: physical activity, eating habits, alcohol consumption, tobacco smoking, preventive tests performance) between seniors attending and not attending UTA's classes. The study involved 631 (100%) seniors aged 60-92 years (x =70.28 ± 6.09 years). The majority of the study group were women (475; 75.28%). To conduct the study, a proprietary questionnaire was used, consisting of questions regarding the discussed topic and basic questions including: age, gender, place of residence and education. Polish versions of standardized questionnaire-"My eating behaviors" examine eating behaviors of the respondents. The Chi2 test was used for qualitative data, and for quantitative data-the Mann-Whitney U test (No normal distribution: T S-W < 0.001). Linear and logistic regression models were used to check whether the associations would remain after adjustments for potential cofounders. The level of statistical significance was set at α < 0.05. Number of seniors participating in UTA's activities was higher in terms of engaging in: actively spending free time (261; 73.73% vs. 93; 26.27%; p < 0.001), regular physical activity (270; 76.27% vs. 133; 48.01%; p < 0.001), self-assessment of physical activity (259; 73.16% vs. 95; 26.84%; p = 0.004), duration of physical activity (< 0.001), past tobacco smoking (133; 37.57 vs. 76; 27.44%; p = 0.007) and alcohol consumption depending on the habit frequency (p < 0.001). Number of seniors not participating in UTA's classes was lower in terms of: regular annual dental controls (161; 58.12%; vs. 265; 74.86%; p < 0.001), regular self-examination of breasts/testicles (148; 53.43% vs. 218; 61.58%; p = 0.04) and regular laboratory tests (232; 83.75% vs. 318; 89.83%; p = 0.02). Health-promoting behaviors of seniors attending classes at the UTA's were more correct in terms of physical activity, adequate attendance with preventive test and worst in terms of alcohol consumption. Overall picture allows to conclude that participation in UTA's classes seems to have a positive impact on the examined health-promoting behaviors of the surveyed seniors.