Past Choices Research Articles

Examining the contraceptive decisions of young, HIV-infected women: A qualitative study

ABSTRACTThis study qualitatively examined factors that influenced contraceptive choices in a sample of young, HIV-infected women. Individual qualitative interviews were conducted among 30 vertically and horizontally HIV-infected women (n = 26 African American) from the ages of 14 to 24 years (Mean age = 20.9 years). We recruited sample groups with the following characteristics: (a) current contraceptive/condom use with ≥1 child (n = 11); (b) current contraceptive/condom use with no children (n = 12); and (c) no current contraceptive/condom use with no children (n = 7). A semi-structured interview guide was used to ask participants about factors influencing past and current contraceptive choices. Individual interviews were digitally recorded and transcribed verbatim; analyses to identify core themes were informed by the Grounded Theoretical approach. Young, HIV-infected women did not identify their HIV serostatus or disease-related concerns as influential in their contraceptive decisions. However, they reported that recommendations from health-care providers and input from family and friends influenced their contraceptive choices. They also considered a particular method’s advantages (e.g., menstrual cycle improvements) and disadvantages (e.g., increased pill burden) when selecting a method. Findings suggested that HIV-infected young women’s contraceptive decisions were influenced by factors other than those related to their infection.

From ornament to armament or loss of function? Breeding plumage acquisition in a genetically monogamous bird.

The evolution of conspicuous male traits is thought to be driven by female mate choice or male-male competition. These two mechanisms are often viewed as distinct processes, with most studies focusing on female choice. However, both mechanisms of sexual selection can act simultaneously on the same trait (i.e., dual function) and/or interact in a synergistic or conflicting way. Dual-function traits are commonly assumed to originate through male-male competition before being used in female choice; yet, most studies focusing on such traits could not determine the direction of change, lacking phylogenetic information. We investigated the role of conspicuous male seasonal plumage in male-male competitive interactions in the purple-crowned fairy-wren Malurus coronatus, a cooperatively breeding bird. Male breeding plumage in most Malurus species is selected by female choice through extra-pair mate choice, but unlike its congeners, M.coronatus is genetically monogamous, and females do not seem to choose males based on breeding plumage acquisition. Our study shows that, within groups, subordinate males that were older, and therefore higher-ranked in the queue for breeder position inheritance, produced a more complete breeding plumage. In line with this, subordinate males that were older and/or displayed a more complete breeding plumage were more successful in competitively acquiring a breeder position. A role as a signal of competitive ability was experimentally confirmed by presenting models of males: in breeding colours, these received more aggression from resident breeder males than in nonbreeding colours, but elicited limited response from females, consistent with competitors in breeding plumage being perceived as a bigger threat to the breeder male. The role of the conspicuous breeding plumage in mediating male-male interactions might account for its presence in this genetically monogamous species. As phylogenetic reconstructions suggest a past female choice function in M.coronatus, this could represent a sexual trait that shifted functions, or a dual-function trait that lost one function. These evolutionary scenarios imply that intra- and intersexual functions of ornaments may be gained or lost independently and offer new perspectives in understanding the complex dynamics of sexual selection.

Equal Opportunity, Responsibility, and Personal Identity

According to the ‘starting-gate’ interpretation of equality of opportunity, individuals who enjoy equal starts can legitimately become unequal to the extent that their differences derive from choices for which they can be held responsible. There can be no coercive transfers of resources in favour of individuals who disregarded their own futures, and no limits on the right of an individual to distribute resources intrapersonally. This paper assesses two ways in which advocates of equality of opportunity might depart from the starting-gate interpretation. The first involves limiting the degree to which people are liable to pay the costs of their past choices. The second involves limiting their initial opportunities so as to prevent certain risky or apparently short-sighted choices. The paper compares these alternatives in terms of their compatibility with a particular conception of persons as morally equal and temporally extended. It constructs this conception by combining reductionist premises about personal identity with the premise that our status as equals is based on the fundamental requirement of opacity respect. Two conclusions about equality of opportunity are shown to follow from this conception of persons as morally equal and temporally extended: the first is that an individual’s liability to pay the costs of her past choices does not diminish over time; the second is that the individual’s initial scope of choice, in bringing about intrapersonal distributions between her current and future selves, can nevertheless be permissibly limited. The two conclusions are consistent, and the second allows for departures from starting-gate equality of opportunity.

A multifaceted approach towards interpreting early life experience and infant feeding practices in the ancient Atacama Desert, Northern Chile

AbstractInterpreting early life experience in the past is of considerable interest to archaeologists, yet remains fraught with difficulty. Children are sensitive barometers of population health in general. In addition, infant feeding practices, and stresses experienced during infancy and childhood, have important effects on adult health and demographic changes. Understanding how diet and physiological stress interact is therefore of significance, but most bony indicators of stress have non‐specific etiologies that cannot be tied to events during childhood. The recent advent of incremental isotopic techniques means we now have the potential to identify periods of stress and dietary change during childhood through changes to stable carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios during tissue formation. Being able to establish these individual weaning trajectories allows us to consider individuality in past weaning choices, giving the bioarchaeologist a more nuanced picture of the past. Here, we investigate whether combining paleopathological and isotopic data can give insight into the synergy between infant feeding and stress. We present a case study of a 5‐year‐old child from an early agricultural period archaeological site in the northern Atacama Desert, Chile. We show that, despite physiological stress likely affecting isotopic ratios in this individual, a weaning curve is visible and the interpretation of weaning behaviour is possible. In addition, we suggest that there is isotopic evidence for a micronutrient deficient weaning diet that may be correlated with bony evidence for pathology.

Career Concerns and the Nature of Skills

I examine how career concerns are shaped by the nature of productive actions taken by workers. A worker’s skills follow a Gaussian process with an endogenous component reflecting human-capital accumulation. Effort and skills are substitutes both in the output process (as in Holmström 1999) and in the skills technology. The focus is on deterministic equilibria by virtue of Gaussian learning. When effort and skills are direct inputs to production and skills are exogenous, effort can be inefficiently high in the beginning of a career. In contrast, when skills are the only input to production but accumulate through past effort choices, the worker always underinvests in skill acquisition. At the center of the discrepancy are two types of ex post errors that arise at interpreting output due to an identification problem faced by the market. Finally, the robustness of the underinvestment result is explored via variations in the skill-accumulation technology and in the information structure, and policy implications are discussed. (JEL D83, I26, J24, J31)

The Echo of Past Choices: The Roman dining table under twenty-first century scrutiny

The Echo of Past Choices: The Roman dining table under twenty-first century scrutiny

Down by Algorithms? Siphoning Rents, Exploiting Biases and Shaping Preferences The Dark Side of Personalized Transactions

In this article we seek to systematically explore and understand crucial aspects of a potential dark side of personalized transactions. Big data and artificial intelligence may enable businesses with access to the data and the required technology to effectively personalize their interactions with consumers in order to exploit informational asymmetries and/or consumer biases in novel ways and on an unprecedented scale. We identify three aspects of the dark side of personalized B2C transactions as particular areas of concern. First, businesses increasingly engage in first-degree price discrimination, siphoning rents from consumers. Second, firms exploit well-known behavioral biases of consumers such as, for example, their inability to correctly assess the long-term effects of complex transactions or their insufficient will-power, in a systematic fashion. And third, businesses use microtargeted ads and recommendations to shape consumers’ preferences and steer them into a particular consumption pattern, effectively locking them into a lifestyle determined by their past choices and those of likeminded fellows. At first sight, siphoning rents, exploiting biases and shaping preferences appear to be relatively distinct phenomena. However, on closer inspection, these phenomena share a common underlying theme: the potential exploitation of consumers or at least an impoverishment of their lives by firms who apply novel and sophisticated technological means to maximize profits. Hence, the dark side of personalized B2C transactions may be characterized as consumers being “brought down by algorithms”, losing transaction surplus, engaging in welfare-reducing transactions and increasingly being trapped in a narrower life. It is unclear whether first-degree price discrimination creates an efficiency problem, but surely it raises concerns of distributive justice. We propose that it should be addressed by a clear and simple warning to the consumer that she is being offered a personalized price and, in addition, a right to indicate that she does not want to participate in a personalized pricing scheme. Similarly, behavioral biases may or may not lead consumers to conclude inefficient transactions. But it appears that they should be given an opportunity to reflect on their choices if these have been induced by firms applying exploitative algorithmic sales techniques. Hence, we propose that consumers should have a right to withdraw from a contract concluded under such conditions. Indeed, in many jurisdictions they already have such a right today. Finally, shaping consumers’ preferences by microtargeted ads and recommendations prevents consumers from experimenting and leading a multifaceted life. We should have a right to opt out of the technological steering mechanisms created and utilized by firms that impoverish our lives.

The changing rationale for governance choices: Early vs. late adopters of global services sourcing

Research Summary: This article studies how the logic of firm governance choices varies as a function of the time of adoption of particular sourcing practices. Using data on the diffusion of global business services sourcing as a management practice from early experiments in the 1980s through 2011, we show that the extent to which governance choices are affected by process commoditization, availability of external service capabilities, and past governance choices depends on whether firms are early or late adopters. Findings inform research on governance choice dynamics specifically in highly diverse and evolving firm populations. Managerial Summary: This article considers how firms have chosen delivery models in global services sourcing decisions over time. Based on comprehensive data, we make two major observations. First, we find that firms that began with global services sourcing early, invested mainly in their internal sourcing capacity, while outsourcing only simple tasks to external providers, whereas firms that started later invested more in their capability to outsource various services to increasingly sophisticated suppliers. Second, we find that initial investments in internal or external sourcing capabilities have a strong effect on future choices of delivery models. This explains why, even today, firms vary greatly in how they implement global sourcing decisions, and it suggests that newcomers should learn from their own peer group rather than from highly experienced firms.

Seeking and Avoiding Choice Closure to Enhance Outcome Satisfaction

Consumers gain choice closure when they perceive a sense of finality over a past decision and limit comparisons between the selected and the forgone options. We investigate consumers’ ability to make strategic use of choice closure to enhance outcome satisfaction. Seven studies show that consumers experience greater satisfaction when they achieve choice closure with an inferior outcome and when they do not achieve choice closure with a superior outcome; however, they expect to be more satisfied by avoiding choice closure with an inferior outcome and by seeking it with a superior outcome. We provide a rationale for this experience–expectation contrast based on rule overgeneralization. Consumers form their expectation on an implicit rule learned and internalized in a context in which it is appropriate and advantageous: when they aim to increase satisfaction with a future choice; however, consumers erroneously apply the same implicit rule to a different context, one in which they aim to increase satisfaction with a past choice. We conclude that consumers are unlikely to be able to make strategic use of choice closure to enhance satisfaction with the outcome of a decision they have made.

Adaptive History Biases Result from Confidence-Weighted Accumulation of past Choices.

Perceptual decision-making is biased by previous events, including the history of preceding choices: observers tend to repeat (or alternate) their judgments of the sensory environment more often than expected by chance. Computational models postulate that these so-called choice history biases result from the accumulation of internal decision signals across trials. Here, we provide psychophysical evidence for such a mechanism and its adaptive utility. Male and female human observers performed different variants of a challenging visual motion discrimination task near psychophysical threshold. In a first experiment, we decoupled categorical perceptual choices and motor responses on a trial-by-trial basis. Choice history bias was explained by previous perceptual choices, not motor responses, highlighting the importance of internal decision signals in action-independent formats. In a second experiment, observers performed the task in stimulus environments containing different levels of autocorrelation and providing no external feedback about choice correctness. Despite performing under overall high levels of uncertainty, observers adjusted both the strength and the sign of their choice history biases to these environments. When stimulus sequences were dominated by either repetitions or alternations, the individual degree of this adjustment of history bias was about as good a predictor of individual performance as individual perceptual sensitivity. The history bias adjustment scaled with two proxies for observers' confidence about their previous choices (accuracy and reaction time). Together, our results are consistent with the idea that action-independent, confidence-modulated decision variables are accumulated across choices in a flexible manner that depends on decision-makers' model of their environment.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Decisions based on sensory input are often influenced by the history of one's preceding choices, manifesting as a bias to systematically repeat (or alternate) choices. We here provide support for the idea that such choice history biases arise from the context-dependent accumulation of a quantity referred to as the decision variable: the variable's sign dictates the choice and its magnitude the confidence about choice correctness. We show that choices are accumulated in an action-independent format and a context-dependent manner, weighted by the confidence about their correctness. This confidence-weighted accumulation of choices enables decision-makers to flexibly adjust their behavior to different sensory environments. The bias adjustment can be as important for optimizing performance as one's sensitivity to the momentary sensory input.

Energy-efficiency opportunistic spectrum allocation in cognitive wireless sensor network

The developments in wireless sensor network (WSN) that enriches with the unique capabilities of cognitive radio technique are giving impetus to the evolution of Cognitive Wireless Sensor Network (CWSN). In a CWSN, wireless sensor nodes can opportunistically transmit on vacant licensed frequencies and operate under a strict interference avoidance policy with the other licensed users. However, typical constraints of energy conservation from battery-driven design, local spectrum availability, reachability with other sensor nodes, and large-scale network architecture with complex topology are factors that maintain an acceptable network performance in the design of CWSN. In addition, the distributed nature of sensor networks also forces each sensor node to act cooperatively for a goal of maximizing the performance of overall network. The desirable features of CWSN make Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning (RL) technique an attractive choice. In this paper, we propose a reinforcement learning-based transmission power and spectrum selection scheme that allows individual sensors to adapt and learn from their past choices and those of their neighbors. Our proposed scheme is multi-agent distributed and is adaptive to both the end-to-end source to sink data requirements and the level of residual energy contained within the sensors in the network. Results show significant improvement in network lifetime when compared with greedy-based resource allocation schemes.

Using Persistence to Generate Incentives in a Dynamic Moral Hazard Problem

I study how the persistence of past choices can be used to create incentives in a continuous time stochastic game in which a large player, such as a i¬ rm, interacts with a sequence of short-run players, such as customers. The long-run player faces moral hazard and her past actions are imperfectly observed – they are distorted by a Brownian motion. Persistence refers to the fact that actions impact a payoi¬€relevant state variable, e.g. the quality of a product depends on both current and past investment choices. I obtain a characterization of actions and payoi¬€s in Markov Perfect Equilibria (MPE), for a i¬ xed discount rate. I show that the perfect public equilibrium (PPE) payoi¬€ set is the convex hull of the MPE payoi¬€ set. Finally, I derive sui¬ƒcient conditions for a MPE to be the unique PPE. Persistence creates ei¬€ective intertemporal incentives to overcome moral hazard in settings where traditional channels fail. Several applications illustrate how the structure of persistence impacts the strength of these incentives.

Dynamic Random Utility

Under dynamic random utility, an agent (or population of agents) solves a dynamic decision problem subject to evolving private information. We analyze the fully general and non-parametric model, axiomatically characterizing the implied dynamic stochastic choice behavior. A key new feature relative to static or i.i.d. versions of the model is that when private information displays serial correlation, choices appear history dependent: different sequences of past choices reflect different private information of the agent, and hence typically lead to different distributions of current choices. Our axiomatization imposes discipline on the form of history dependence that can arise under arbitrary serial correlation. Dynamic stochastic choice data lets us distinguish central models that coincide in static domains, in particular private information in the form of utility shocks vs. learning, and to study inherently dynamic phenomena such as choice persistence. We relate our model to specifications of utility shocks widely used in empirical work, highlighting new modeling tradeoffs in the dynamic discrete choice literature. Finally, we extend our characterization to allow past consumption to directly affect the agenti?½s utility process, accommodating models of habit formation and experimentation.

European Governments’ Responses to the ‘Refugee Crisis’

In the face of the ‘refugee crisis’, many European governments, even in traditionally liberal states, unilaterally introduced a number of restrictive and, often, controversial migration, asylum, and border control policies. The author argues that past legal-bureaucratic choices on migration and asylum policies, ongoing developments in international relations at that time, the structural and perceived capacity of receiving states to cope with the refugee influx, and long-standing migration-related security concerns influenced the responses of many European governments amid the mass population movement. However, the author also suggests that the surfacing of particular policies across Europe was related to the newly elected Greek government’s attempted U-turn from similar repressive and controversial policies during that time. In this regard, the author maintains that repressive and controversial migration, asylum, and border control policies cannot simply be abolished within the context of theeucommon market and interdependence ofeuinternal and external controls.

Bumpy Rides: School‐to‐work Transitions in South Africa

AbstractRe‐enrollment in school following a period of dropout is a common feature of school‐to‐work transitions, but has been largely ignored in the literature on sequential schooling choice. I quantify the importance of the option to re‐enroll in school‐to‐work transitions in South Africa. I estimate a model of sequential schooling choice using a panel that contains the entire schooling and labor market histories of sampled youth. The model incorporates Bayesian learning about academic ability and the probability of employment in response to outcomes from past choices, with updated beliefs influencing the expected returns to human capital investment and labor market participation. I conduct a policy simulation under which re‐enrollment prior to high school completion is completely restricted, raising the opportunity cost of dropout. The resulting fall in dropout increases school attainment, raising the proportion of students completing at least 12 years of schooling by 5 percentage points. The corresponding income gains fail to compensate for the welfare loss incurred from removing the option to re‐enroll, however. The results suggest that the option to re‐enroll is an important component of the incentives South African youth face when making schooling decisions.

Formative Analysis of Aging in Place: Implications for the Design of Caregiver Robots

Many have conceptualized caregiver robots as consumer products and studied elders’ perceived needs afor and preferences about such products. For reviews, please see (Broadbent, Stafford, & MacDonald, 2009; Jones & Schmidlin, 2011). That approach, though, could create robots that cannot satisfy elders’ actual caregiving needs. Alternatively, one can conceptualize caregiver robots as workers in complex socio-technical systems. To do so, one would need a detailed account of the caregiving that takes place in elders’ homes. Unfortunately, as noted in a National Research Council (2011) report, such a detailed account of caregiving does not exist. Accordingly, we sought to develop such an account. There are many ways to analyze work (for a discussion of general approaches, see Vicente, 1999). They can be categorized into 3 general types: normative, descriptive, and formative approaches (Vicente, 1999). We adopted a formative approach because formative approaches are tailored to the analysis of complex socio-technical systems (Vicente, 1999). They capture work requirements without specifying how that work must be done or who must do it. For example, the constraint “must not lose track of time” captures a work requirement but allows the associated work to be accomplished in a number of different ways (e.g., by checking a clock, setting an alarm) and by a number of different entities (e.g., family member, caregiver robot). To conduct our analysis, researchers observed caregiving in elders’ homes, and interviewed caregivers about their work activities. Researchers then organized their findings into an Abstraction Hierarchy (AH; Vicente, 1999), that is, a detailed account of the aging in place socio-technical system. Our primary aim was to create an AH that describes means-ends relations between the complex socio-technical caregiving system’s overall objectives, work tasks, and physical resources. Such a description provides a detailed account of the caregiving work domain, and serves as the foundation for subsequent formative analyses of caregiving. To create the AH, research team members completed 4 steps: 1) analyzing existing caregiving documentation, 2) observing caregiving and interviewing caregivers, 3) drafting and/or refining the AH, and 4) validating the AH. Steps 2 and 3 were iterative. This process is consistent with Naikar, Hopcraft, and Moylan’s (2005) recommendations regarding formative analyses. The AH made clear that caregiving for those who age in place is a complex and nuanced activity. More specifically, our analysis confirmed existing research regarding categories of caregiving tasks and revealed aspects of caregiving that have not been detailed so far. The existing literature indicates that caregivers assist older adults with self-maintenance activities of daily life (ADLs), such as eating, toileting, and dressing (Lawton, 1990), instrumental activities of daily life (IADLs), such as cooking, cleaning, and shopping (Lawton, 1990), and enhanced activities of daily life (EADLs), such as participating in social activities and pursuing hobbies (Rogers, et al., 1998). Our analysis confirmed those findings, and our AH provides a more detailed account of those tasks than was previously available. Our analysis also revealed aspects of caregiving for those who are aging in place that have not been detailed thus far in the research literature. For example, our AH contains a purpose-related function called Counseling, which concerns ensuring that the elder does not experience psychological distress. To perform this function, the caregiver must understand the elder’s situation (e.g., a family conflict), use information about that situation (e.g., experience with relevant family members and/or past conflicts; the elders’ past choices), and offer the elder advice about how to proceed (e.g., which family member’s advice to follow). The main implication of our AH for the design of caregiver robots is that such robots cannot be designed to perform purpose-related functions in a one-size-fits-all way; rather, caregiver robots must exhibit context-conditioned variability (Vicente, 1999). Our AH has many other important implications for the design of caregiver robots, which unfortunately cannot be detailed here due to space constraints.

Power sector development in Iran: A retrospective optimization approach

This paper provides an overview of the power sector development in Iran for the period 1984–2014. A retrospective optimization approach is applied to assess economic and environmental benefits that would have been achieved through appropriate long-term planning. MESSAGE, a systems engineering optimization model, is used for this analysis. Two alternative scenarios are defined to explore the impact of supply- and demand-side strategies on the power generation mix, fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. The focus on the past choice of energy scenarios provides some insights for future scenario design. The results of the cost-optimal scenarios with international fuel prices are compared with the actual historical development. The findings indicate that the demand-side strategies are key drivers in achieving a low-carbon generation mix. Least-cost scenarios would favor much more combined cycle, renewable technologies and distributed electricity generation units, and less gas turbine than the actual transition pathway. Long-term energy planning would have reduced the cumulative total power system costs by $21-$90 billion.

Squandering Australia’s food security—The environmental and economic costs of our unhealthy diet and the policy Path We’re On

While historically Australia has been a major exporter of food commodities and is generally considered to be “food secure”, our inter-disciplinary modelling of Australia’s food system and contemporary diet demonstrates that Australia is likely to become a net importer of key nutritious foods such as nuts and dairy if it continues along its current policy path. Furthermore, this occurs in the context of accelerating international debt, complete dependence on imported oil and declines in Gross Domestic Product per capita. Coupled with no reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing water deficits around many capital cities, these factors indicate increasing threats to Australia’s food security. These strategic challenges arise from past and current policy choices and trends, including continued consumption of an unhealthy diet. Their effects are modelled for the coming decades using an innovative scenario simulation based on comprehensive accounts of physical processes in Australia’s economy simulated in the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework. Our analysis further employed health and economic cost modelling based on burden of disease data, conservatively demonstrating that productivity and health costs of unhealthy diets would be at least three billion Australian dollars for the 2025 Australian population if we were to continue on this trajectory.

From anomalies to forecasts: Toward a descriptive model of decisions under risk, under ambiguity, and from experience.

Experimental studies of choice behavior document distinct, and sometimes contradictory, deviations from maximization. For example, people tend to overweight rare events in 1-shot decisions under risk, and to exhibit the opposite bias when they rely on past experience. The common explanations of these results assume that the contradicting anomalies reflect situation-specific processes that involve the weighting of subjective values and the use of simple heuristics. The current article analyzes 14 choice anomalies that have been described by different models, including the Allais, St. Petersburg, and Ellsberg paradoxes, and the reflection effect. Next, it uses a choice prediction competition methodology to clarify the interaction between the different anomalies. It focuses on decisions under risk (known payoff distributions) and under ambiguity (unknown probabilities), with and without feedback concerning the outcomes of past choices. The results demonstrate that it is not necessary to assume situation-specific processes. The distinct anomalies can be captured by assuming high sensitivity to the expected return and 4 additional tendencies: pessimism, bias toward equal weighting, sensitivity to payoff sign, and an effort to minimize the probability of immediate regret. Importantly, feedback increases sensitivity to probability of regret. Simple abstractions of these assumptions, variants of the model Best Estimate and Sampling Tools (BEAST), allow surprisingly accurate ex ante predictions of behavior. Unlike the popular models, BEAST does not assume subjective weighting functions or cognitive shortcuts. Rather, it assumes the use of sampling tools and reliance on small samples, in addition to the estimation of the expected values. (PsycINFO Database Record

Reminders of past choices bias decisions for reward in humans

We provide evidence that decisions are made by consulting memories for individual past experiences, and that this process can be biased in favour of past choices using incidental reminders. First, in a standard rewarded choice task, we show that a model that estimates value at decision-time using individual samples of past outcomes fits choices and decision-related neural activity better than a canonical incremental learning model. In a second experiment, we bias this sampling process by incidentally reminding participants of individual past decisions. The next decision after a reminder shows a strong influence of the action taken and value received on the reminded trial. These results provide new empirical support for a decision architecture that relies on samples of individual past choice episodes rather than incrementally averaged rewards in evaluating options and has suggestive implications for the underlying cognitive and neural mechanisms.