Past Choices Research Articles

Echoes of Memory and Identity: A Psychological and Theoretical Analysis of the Ripple Effect in Kazuo Ishiguro's The Remains of the Day

This paper explores the psychological and literary dimensions of Kazuo Ishiguro’s The Remains of the Day, focusing on how memory and past choices impact the protagonist’s identity. Utilising Freudian psychoanalysis, Jungian archetypes, and cognitive dissonance theory, the study delves into Stevens’s emotional suppression, internal conflicts, and gradual self-awareness. Additionally, narrative and postmodern literary theories are applied to analyse Ishiguro’s narrative style, revealing the protagonist’s selective and unreliable memory. This interdisciplinary approach demonstrates how Stevens’s recollections and repressed emotions create a ripple effect that shapes his identity and underscores the human experience of introspection and regret. The findings highlight the intricate interplay between memory and identity and the significance of psychological insights in literary analysis.

Striving for balance: past choices and future expectations in a critical resource competition dynamic model

Striving for balance: past choices and future expectations in a critical resource competition dynamic model

Dealing With Temporality in Patients With Life-Limiting Disease: An International Qualitative Study.

The prospect of death influences people's thoughts about and how they deal with their remaining time. We aimed to understand whether patients with progressive, life-limiting diseases are oriented in the past, present, or future and how they deal with temporality. We conducted 57 in-depth interviews with end-of-life patients in 10 countries using thematic analysis at three levels (i.e., locally in three countries, with codes shared in the three-country subgroup, and in all 10 countries with a codebook that we developed). We found that the patients' thoughts were oriented toward all three time levels (i.e., past, present, and future). Complementing these levels, we identified another, namely, the future after death. Each time level included patients actively and passively dealing with their thoughts. Past themes were remorse and regret, nostalgia, and coming to terms with past choices; present themes were feeling grateful for being alive, a time for farewells, and living for the day; future themes were worries about the future, to miss out, hope, ideas about death and dying, and planning the near future; and future after death themes were not being there, worries about loved ones, and preparations for a future after death. A changed view on lifetime and avoidance of thinking about a certain time level related to several time levels, while desire to die fluctuated between levels and between acting on and feeling about it. Living for the day, worries about the future, and worries about the well-being of loved ones were common themes in all countries.

Automatic versus manual investing: Role of past performance

Using unique data from a leading peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platform, we investigate the link between past investment performance and choice of auto-investing tool. Our results suggest that investors who experience fewer defaults in the manual mode are more inclined to switch to automatic investment. Several factors account for this relationship, including investor inattention, decision speed, investment delegation, and experience. Regarding the latter, our results suggest that experienced investors are more likely to continue self-directed bidding, even if they have faced defaults in manual investments in the past. These investors may attribute their previous mistakes to their own actions rather than the limitations of the self-directed bids. Our results are robust to alternative specifications.

Temporal regularities shape perceptual decisions and striatal dopamine signals

Perceptual decisions should depend on sensory evidence. However, such decisions are also influenced by past choices and outcomes. These choice history biases may reflect advantageous strategies to exploit temporal regularities of natural environments. However, it is unclear whether and how observers can adapt their choice history biases to different temporal regularities, to exploit the multitude of temporal correlations that exist in nature. Here, we show that male mice adapt their perceptual choice history biases to different temporal regularities of visual stimuli. This adaptation was slow, evolving over hundreds of trials across several days. It occurred alongside a fast non-adaptive choice history bias, limited to a few trials. Both fast and slow trial history effects are well captured by a normative reinforcement learning algorithm with multi-trial belief states, comprising both current trial sensory and previous trial memory states. We demonstrate that dorsal striatal dopamine tracks predictions of the model and behavior, suggesting that striatal dopamine reports reward predictions associated with adaptive choice history biases. Our results reveal the adaptive nature of perceptual choice history biases and shed light on their underlying computational principles and neural correlates.

Neural mechanisms of credit assignment for delayed outcomes during contingent learning.

Adaptive behavior in complex environments critically relies on the ability to appropriately link specific choices or actions to their outcomes. However, the neural mechanisms that support the ability to credit only those past choices believed to have caused the observed outcomes remain unclear. Here, we leverage multivariate pattern analyses of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data and an adaptive learning task to shed light on the underlying neural mechanisms of such specific credit assignment. We find that the lateral orbitofrontal cortex (lOFC) and hippocampus (HC) code for the causal choice identity when credit needs to be assigned for choices that are separated from outcomes by a long delay, even when this delayed transition is punctuated by interim decisions. Further, we show when interim decisions must be made, learning is additionally supported by lateral frontopolar cortex (FPl). Our results indicate that FPl holds previous causal choices in a "pending" state until a relevant outcome is observed, and the fidelity of these representations predicts the fidelity of subsequent causal choice representations in lOFC and HC during credit assignment. Together, these results highlight the importance of the timely reinstatement of specific causes in lOFC and HC in learning choice-outcome relationships when delays and choices intervene, a critical component of real-world learning and decision making.

Probabilistic prediction and context tree identification in the Goalkeeper game

In this article we address two related issues on the learning of probabilistic sequences of events. First, which features make the sequence of events generated by a stochastic chain more difficult to predict. Second, how to model the procedures employed by different learners to identify the structure of sequences of events. Playing the role of a goalkeeper in a video game, participants were told to predict step by step the successive directions—left, center or right—to which the penalty kicker would send the ball. The sequence of kicks was driven by a stochastic chain with memory of variable length. Results showed that at least three features play a role in the first issue: (1) the shape of the context tree summarizing the dependencies between present and past directions; (2) the entropy of the stochastic chain used to generate the sequences of events; (3) the existence or not of a deterministic periodic sequence underlying the sequences of events. Moreover, evidence suggests that best learners rely less on their own past choices to identify the structure of the sequences of events.

The Specification of a Computational Model of Physical Activity Habit.

The influence of habit on physical activity is computationally modeled as the aggregated influence of past behavioral choices a person makes in a given context. We hypothesize that the influence of habit on behavior can be enhanced through engagement of the target behavior in a particular context or weakened through engagement of alternative behaviors in that context.

Human Behavior in Suboptimal Choice Tasks: Defining Optimality.

Suboptimal choice behavior, or behavior that leads to a loss of resources over time, has been observed in a laboratory setting from multiple species. A procedure commonly used to capture this effect involves presenting two alternatives during choice trials, one of which is optimal whereas the other is suboptimal. The optimal alternative yields reinforcement more often than the suboptimal alternative, but often does not produce signals that indicate whether reinforcement will occur. The suboptimal alternative produces less reinforcement than the optimal alternative but may include reinforcement-predictive stimuli that indicate to the organism whether reinforcement will occur. This procedural framework has consistently produced a preference for the suboptimal alternative in pigeons and, to a lesser extent, rats. However, human participants have demonstrated preference for the optimal alternative. Following a review of past suboptimal choice research, we applied the reinforcement-derived definition of optimality to two sets of our previously published human data. We found that under multiple conditions, human choice behavior was consistent with what was predicted by the proportion of obtained reinforcement, thus supporting that the behavior was optimal. However, we found that participants in two conditions chose the suboptimal alternative more than expected. This finding could be considered as a demonstration of suboptimal choice in humans. We propose that comparing choice behavior to what past obtained reinforcement outcomes would predict might be a more accurate view of whether patterns of choice are within the parameters of this task.

Foraging in a non-foraging task: Fitness maximization explains human risk preference dynamics under changing environment.

Changes in risk preference have been reported when making a series of independent risky choices or non-foraging economic decisions. Behavioral economics has put forward various explanations for specific changes in risk preference in non-foraging tasks, but a consensus regarding the general principle underlying these effects has not been reached. In contrast, recent studies have investigated human economic risky choices using tasks adapted from foraging theory, which require consideration of past choices and future opportunities to make optimal decisions. In these foraging tasks, human economic risky choices are explained by the ethological principle of fitness maximization, which naturally leads to dynamic risk preference. Here, we conducted two online experiments to investigate whether the principle of fitness maximization can explain risk preference dynamics in a non-foraging task. Participants were asked to make a series of independent risky economic decisions while the environmental richness changed. We found that participants' risk preferences were influenced by the current and past environments, making them more risk-averse during and after the rich environment compared to the poor environment. These changes in risk preference align with fitness maximization. Our findings suggest that the ethological principle of fitness maximization might serve as a generalizable principle for explaining dynamic preferences, including risk preference, in human economic decision-making.

Response times are affected by mispredictions in a stochastic game

Acting as a goalkeeper in a video-game, a participant is asked to predict the successive choices of the penalty taker. The sequence of choices of the penalty taker is generated by a stochastic chain with memory of variable length. It has been conjectured that the probability distribution of the response times is a function of the specific sequence of past choices governing the algorithm used by the penalty taker to make his choice at each step. We found empirical evidence that besides this dependence, the distribution of the response times depends also on the success or failure of the previous prediction made by the participant. Moreover, we found statistical evidence that this dependence propagates up to two steps forward after the prediction failure.

Dreaming of a Bright Future: Statistics, Disaster, and the Birth of Energopolitics in 1930s Chile.

In 1939, directly after the worst earthquake in the country's history, the Chilean state began implementing an electrification program. This plan shaped energy goals for years to come and defined the interconnected grid that dominates the country's energy infrastructure today. Based on extensive archival work, this article describes the birth of energopolitics in the country, using technology sociologist Michel Callon's notion of "interessement" to describe the strategies of a group of engineers who acted as system builders. Their four main strategies were embracing technological futurisms, forging heterogeneous networks, articulating and mobilizing knowledge, and using crises as windows of opportunity for change. The article shows not only the historical impact of past energy choices on today's world but also that current challenges to energy transitions are not without precedent. Using a sociological framework to tell this story allows us to highlight the mechanisms through which energy systems can change.

Regulatory, accompanying, and collective governance? The challenges of re-orientating environmental-economic interdependencies in two French ports

ABSTRACT How small/medium-sized (SM) commercial ports act politically matters for local ecological transformation facing increasing climate and socio-environmental failures and dilemmas. In this spirit, we compared the environmental public action of two SM ports in southwestern France – La Rochelle and Bayonne – facing two sets of dilemmas: (i) how to tackle problems emerging from past choices; (ii) how to resolve issues arising from ‘choosing the future today’. Whereas global scientific assessments highlight regulatory, accompanying and collective approaches as high confidence ones towards ecological transformation, more technologically resourced scenarios (without economic behavioural change governance) are available to SM ports. Furthermore, although political processes of territorialisation, democratisation and ecologisation have reconfigured environmental authority for both public actors and SM ports in France, there is nothing inevitable about how different categories of public (and private) actor may work together. Our results reflect these tensions. Both SM ports have engaged to institutionalise regulatory, accompanying and collective environmental public action, and portray new approaches as indicative of their acknowledged responsibility. Nevertheless, important contradictions muddy the ecologisation trajectories their key actors claim to be taking. Overall, the study highlights that transformed governance alone does not guarantee that actors have fully embarked upon a newly transformative trajectory.

The role of the working memory storage component in a random-like series generation.

People are not equipped with an internal random series generator. When asked to produce a random series they simply try to reproduce an output of known random process. However, this endeavor is very often limited by their working memory capacity. Here, we investigate the model of random-like series generation that accounts for the involvement of storage and processing components of working memory. In two studies, we used a modern, robust measure of randomness to assess human-generated series. In Study 1, in the experimental design with the visibility of the last generated elements as a between-subjects variable, we tested whether decreasing cognitive load on working memory would mitigate the decay in the level of randomness of the generated series. Moreover, we investigated the relationship between randomness judgment and algorithmic complexity of human-generated series. Results showed that when people did not have to solely rely on their working memory storage component to maintain active past choices they were able to prolongate their high-quality performance. Moreover, people who were able to better distinguish more complex patterns at the same time generated more random series. In Study 2, in the correlational design, we examined the relationship between working memory capacity and the ability to produce random-like series. Results revealed that individuals with longer working memory capacity also were to produce more complex series. These findings highlight the importance of working memory in generating random-like series and provide insights into the underlying mechanisms of this cognitive process.

Making predictions based on data: Holistic and atomistic procedures

Subjects were asked to predict the choice made by a hypothetical individual, based on a small sample of his past choices in identical situations. Each of the alternatives facing the individual has a number of components. When the data is presented explicitly as a distribution of past choices, most subjects use the holistic procedure according to which the prediction is the most common choice made in the past. Nevertheless, a significant minority of subjects use atomistic procedures, which relate to the various components individually. When the distribution is not explicitly presented but can be derived from the data, subjects apply both atomistic procedures and holistic rules of thumb.

Taps

Do you have the right, or even the obligation, to disobey laws that you find personally unjust? In this work of philosophical short story fiction, John, a retired music teacher who fled to Canada during the Vietnam War, grapples with his past choices as he plays taps at the funeral of a homeless veteran. Through his reflections and encounters, including a conversation with the veteran's sister and a rereading of Plato's "Crito," John confronts his guilt and seeks redemption for the sacrifices he didn't make. The story delves into themes of duty, sacrifice, and the enduring impact of war on those who lived through it.

Persistence in a dynamic moral hazard game

This paper explores how the persistence of past choices creates incentives in a continuous time stochastic game involving a large player (e.g., a firm) and a sequence of small players (e.g., customers). The large player faces moral hazard and her actions are distorted by a Brownian motion. Persistence refers to how actions impact a payoff‐relevant state variable (e.g., product quality depends on past investment). I characterize actions and payoffs in Markov perfect equilibria (MPE) for a fixed discount rate, show that the perfect public equilibrium (PPE) payoff set is the convex hull of the MPE payoff set, and derive sufficient conditions for a MPE to be the unique PPE. Persistence can serve as an effective channel for intertemporal incentives in a setting where traditional channels fail. Applications to persistent product quality and policy targeting demonstrate the impact of persistence on equilibrium behavior.

A neural autopilot theory of habit: Evidence from consumer purchases and social media use.

This article applies a two-process "neural autopilot" model to field data. The autopilot model hypothesizes that habitual choice occurs when the reward from a behavior has low numerical "doubt" (i.e., reward prediction errors are small). The model toggles between repeating a previous choice (habit) when doubt is low and making a goal-directed choice when doubt is high. The model has ingredients established in animal learning and cognitive neuroscience and is simple enough to make nonobvious predictions. In two empirical applications, we fit the model to field data on purchases of canned tuna and posting on the Chinese social media site Weibo. This style of modeling is called "structural" because there is a theoretical model of how different variables influence choices by agents (the "structure"), which tightly restricts how hidden variables lead to observed choices. There is empirical support for the model, more strongly for tuna purchases than for Weibo posting, relative to a baseline "reduced-form" model in which current choices are correlated with past choices without a mechanistic (structural) explanation. An interesting set of predictions can also be derived about how consumers react to different kinds of changes in prices and qualities of goods (this is called "counterfactual analysis").

Shadow talk

As the old man looks into his shadow, he must reflect on his past choices, are we on the right path to improving society or are we simply following, a new energy crisis created for profiting from a new global climate agenda? Each generation has faced this dilemma and may have to face a new series of problems as the transition of energy moves forward. The artwork is created as a stencil, can be found in Stord, western Norway. Cover image: Naeem Searle, aka NIMI. Detail from street artwork Shadow talk

Corrective feedback guides human perceptual decision-making by informing about the world state rather than rewarding its choice.

Corrective feedback received on perceptual decisions is crucial for adjusting decision-making strategies to improve future choices. However, its complex interaction with other decision components, such as previous stimuli and choices, challenges a principled account of how it shapes subsequent decisions. One popular approach, based on animal behavior and extended to human perceptual decision-making, employs "reinforcement learning," a principle proven successful in reward-based decision-making. The core idea behind this approach is that decision-makers, although engaged in a perceptual task, treat corrective feedback as rewards from which they learn choice values. Here, we explore an alternative idea, which is that humans consider corrective feedback on perceptual decisions as evidence of the actual state of the world rather than as rewards for their choices. By implementing these "feedback-as-reward" and "feedback-as-evidence" hypotheses on a shared learning platform, we show that the latter outperforms the former in explaining how corrective feedback adjusts the decision-making strategy along with past stimuli and choices. Our work suggests that humans learn about what has happened in their environment rather than the values of their own choices through corrective feedback during perceptual decision-making.