Past Abrupt Climate Changes Research Articles

A reliable benchmark of the last 640,000 years millennial climate variability

How often have past climates undergone abrupt transitions? While our understanding of millennial variability during the past 130,000 years is well established, with precise dates available, such information on previous climate cycles is limited. To address this question, we identified 196 abrupt transitions in the δ18O record of the well-dated Chinese composite speleothem for the last 640,000 years. These results correspond to abrupt changes in the strength of the East Asian Monsoon, which align with the Greenland stadials and interstadials observed in the North Atlantic region during the last 130,000 years before present. These precise dates of past abrupt climate changes constitute a reliable and necessary benchmark for Earth System models used to study future climate scenarios.

Sedimentary DNA reveals the link between microbial community dynamics and climate during the late last glaciation in the offshore region of the Zambezi River, Southwest Indian Ocean

Reconstructing the relationship between microbial communities and past abrupt climate change is of great importance for understanding current biodiversity patterns and predicting changes under future climate scenarios. However, little is currently known about how microbial communities respond to changes in key environmental stages due to a lack of research in this area. Here, we examine the variability in the communities of bacteria, archaea, and fungi from sediments deposited offshore region of the Zambezi River between 21.7 and 9.6 thousand years ago (ka) (covering the last glacial maximum, or LGM, and the early Holocene) using DNA metabarcoding approach via high-throughput sequencing. The results showed that (1) microbial assemblages differed across three key time intervals, with the last deglaciation having the most homogeneous prokaryotic assemblages, while for fungal communities in the LGM, and the early Holocene and LGM differing the most; (2) the warm early Holocene showed the highest diversity, whereas the lowest diversity was found in the LGM; and (3) the selected indicator species better reflected the climatic characteristics of different environmental stages. These results highlight the power of ancient sedimentary DNA to refine our understanding of microbial dynamics in marine sedimentary systems near large rivers, thus providing a basis for better modeling ecological processes in further research.

Global reorganization of atmospheric circulation during Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles

Ice core records from Greenland provide evidence for multiple abrupt cold-warm-cold events recurring at millennial time scales during the last glacial interval. Although climate variations resembling Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) oscillations have been identified in climate archives across the globe, our understanding of the climate and ecosystem impacts of the Greenland warming events in lower latitudes remains incomplete. Here, we investigate the influence of DO-cold-to-warm transitions on the global atmospheric circulation pattern. We comprehensively analyze δ18O changes during DO transitions in a globally distributed dataset of speleothems and set those in context with simulations of a comprehensive high-resolution climate model featuring internal millennial-scale variations of similar magnitude. Across the globe, speleothem δ18O signals and model results indicate consistent large-scale changes in precipitation amount, moisture source, or seasonality of precipitation associated with the DO transitions, in agreement with northward shifts of the Hadley circulation. Furthermore, we identify a decreasing trend in the amplitude of DO transitions with increasing distances from the North Atlantic region. This provides quantitative observational evidence for previous suggestions of the North Atlantic region being the focal point for these archetypes of past abrupt climate changes.

Dichotomy between freshwater and heat flux effects on oceanic conveyor belt stability and global climate

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is an important global-scale oceanic circulation, and its changes may be responsible for past abrupt climate change events. By using two versions of a coupled climate model, here we show that the stability of this circulation depends not only on the background climate, but also on the type of primary external forcing: freshwater vs. greenhouse gases. When freshwater forcing is dominant, hysteresis of this circulation (an abrupt collapse/reactivation) becomes possible only under simulated glacial conditions with closed Bering Strait. Under present day and future conditions, both freshwater and greenhouse gas forcings could collapse this circulation, but only greenhouse gas forcing produced a bi-stable equilibrium state comparable to abrupt climate change. Our results demonstrate that the Bering Strait status (open vs. closed) may facilitate or prohibit the existence of this circulation’s hysteresis, irrespective of the background climate conditions, but is directly related to the primary forcing.

Tropical South American Rainfall Response to Dansgaard-Oeschger Stadials of Marine Isotope Stage 5

Tropical precipitation patterns will most likely be altered by future climate change, with major socioeconomic consequences for human populations that are highly reliant on water availability for subsistence like populations in northeastern (NE) Brazil. Socioeconomic consequences may be particularly disruptive in the occurrence of abrupt climate change. Understanding the response of tropical precipitation to abrupt climate change is a crucial task for improving future projections and devising adaptation policies. Past abrupt climate change events such as the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles may provide relevant insights regarding the dynamics of the climate system under this type of climate change. Here we present a paleoceanographic reconstruction off NE Brazil based on geochemical analyses (stable oxygen isotopes, Mg/Ca and Ba/Ca) performed in planktonic foraminifera, that focus on DO stadials of Marine Isotope Stage 5 (MIS5, 130–71 ka). Our new Ba/Ca record shows increases in fluvial discharge linked to enhanced continental precipitation over NE Brazil during DO stadials of MIS5. Tropical precipitation patterns were altered with enhanced rainfall in NE Brazil during DO stadials as a consequence of a southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which, in turn, was likely a response to changes in ocean heat transport and sea ice cover, as highlighted by recent climate model simulations. The results presented here provide useful information on how abrupt climate change can impact tropical rainfall, which is crucial for tropical societies in order to delineate strategies to cope with future climate change.

Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point

Abstract. We propose a conceptual model comprising a cascade of tipping points as a mechanism for past abrupt climate changes. In the model, changes in a control parameter, which could for instance be related to changes in the atmospheric circulation, induce sequential tipping of sea ice cover and the ocean's meridional overturning circulation. The ocean component, represented by the well-known Stommel box model, is shown to display so-called rate-induced tipping. Here, an abrupt resurgence of the overturning circulation is induced before a bifurcation point is reached due to the fast rate of change of the sea ice. Because of the multi-scale nature of the climate system, this type of tipping cascade may also be a risk concerning future global warming. The relatively short timescales involved make it challenging to detect these tipping points from observations. However, with our conceptual model we find that there can be a significant delay in the tipping because the system is attracted by the stable manifold of a saddle during the rate-induced transition before escaping towards the undesired state. This opens up the possibility for an early warning of the impending abrupt transition via detection of the changing linear stability in the vicinity of the saddle. To do so, we propose estimating the Jacobian from the noisy time series. This is shown to be a useful generic precursor to detect rate-induced tipping.

Independent tephrochronological evidence for rapid and synchronous oceanic and atmospheric temperature rises over the Greenland stadial-interstadial transitions between ca. 32 and 40 ka b2k

Understanding the dynamics that drove past abrupt climate changes, such as the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, depends on combined proxy evidence from disparate archives. To identify leads, lags and synchronicity between different climate system components, independent and robust chronologies are required. Cryptotephrochronology is a key geochronological tool as cryptotephra horizons can act as isochrons linking disparate and/or distant records. Here, we investigated marine sediment core MD99-2284 from the Norwegian Sea to look for previously identified Greenland ice core cryptotephra horizons and define time-parallel markers between the archives. We explored potential secondary transport and depositional mechanisms that could hamper the isochronous integrity of such horizons. We identified six cryptotephra layers of which four correlate to previously known Greenland ice core horizons. None of those were identified in other marine cores and thus, this study contributes greatly to the North Atlantic tephra framework tripling the original amount of existing isochrons between ca. 25 and 60 ka b2k. The latter allow a synchronization between MD99-2284 and the Greenland ice cores between ca. 32–40 ka b2k, which is, in the North Atlantic, the shortest time-interval during the Last Glacial Period to be constrained by four independent tephra isochrons. These findings provide essential tephra-based evidence for synchronous and rapid oceanic and atmospheric temperature rises during the Greenland Stadial-Interstadial transitions. Furthermore, it enables us to estimate the average peak-duration of interstadial temperature overshoots at approximately 136 years. As such, this well-targeted high-resolution investigation successfully demonstrates the use of cryptotephra for geochronological purposes in the marine realm.

Arctic sea ice export as a driver of deglacial climate

Abstract A widespread theory in paleoclimatology suggests that changes in freshwater discharge to the Nordic (Greenland, Norwegian, and Icelandic) Seas from ice sheets and proglacial lakes over North America played a role in triggering episodes of abrupt climate change during deglaciation (21–8 ka) by slowing the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation (AMOC). Yet, proving this link has been problematic, as climate models are unable to produce centennial-to-millennial–length reductions in overturning from short-lived outburst floods, while periods of iceberg discharge during Heinrich Event 1 (ca. 16 ka) may have occurred after the climate had already begun to cool. Here, results from a series of numerical model experiments are presented to show that prior to deglaciation, sea ice could have become tens of meters thick over large parts of the Arctic Basin, forming an enormous reservoir of freshwater independent from terrestrial sources. Our model then shows that deglacial sea-level rise, changes in atmospheric circulation, and terrestrial outburst floods caused this ice to be exported through Fram Strait, where its subsequent melt freshened the Nordic Seas enough to weaken the AMOC. Given that both the volume of ice stored in the Arctic Basin and the magnitude of the simulated export events exceed estimates of the volumes and fluxes of meltwater periodically discharged from proglacial Lake Agassiz, our results show that non-terrestrial freshwater sources played an important role in causing past abrupt climate change.

Abrupt vegetation and environmental change since the MIS 2: A unique paleorecord from Slovakia (Central Europe)

Research on past abrupt climate change and linked biotic response is essential for understanding of the future development of biota under changing climatic conditions, which, in turn, is necessary for adequate progress in ecosystem management and nature conservation. The present study presents the first comprehensive reconstruction of local and regional environment at the Western Carpathian/Pannonian Basin border, including a first chironomid-based paleoclimate reconstruction and δ18O and δ13C records from travertine, to investigate abrupt biota and climate shifts since the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2. A range of biotic and abiotic proxy data in organic-calcareous sediment sequence were analysed using a multi-proxy approach to produce a detailed reconstruction of past ecosystem conditions. The results illustrate that the most prominent abrupt change in the local environment occurred directly at the MIS 2/MIS 1 transition at 14,560 cal BP as a consequence of increased precipitation and an increase in reconstructed mean July temperature by ∼2.2 °C. Abrupt changes in local environment during the early Holocene were closely linked to travertine precipitation rate around thermal springs and thus indirectly to the climate until the arrival of the Late Neolithics around 6400 cal BP. Regional vegetation response (derived from pollen data) to the climatic fluctuations lagged, with the most prominent changes around 14,410 cal BP and 10,140 cal BP. Our data suggest the presence of a steppe-tundra ecosystem with evidence for low amounts of temperate broadleaf trees during the MIS 2, indicating close proximity to their northern glacial refugium. We demonstrate the ability of δ18O and δ13C stable isotope record from travertine to reflect abrupt climatic and environmental changes. The study provides evidence about benefits using travertine deposits coupled with high-resolution paleoecological data to investigate past biotic and abiotic responses to abrupt climate change.

Abrupt Change in Climate and Biotic Systems.

Fifty years ago, Willi Dansgaard and colleagues discovered several abrupt climate change events in Greenland during the last glacial period. Since then, several ice cores retrieved from the Greenland ice sheet have verified the existence of 25 abrupt climate warming events now known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events. These events are characterized by a rapid 10-15°C warming over a few decades followed by a stable period of centuries or millennia before a gradual return to full glacial conditions. Similar warming events have been identified in other paleo-archives in the Northern hemisphere. These findings triggered wide interest in abrupt climate change and its impact on biological diversity, but ambiguous definitions have constrained our ability to assign biotic responses to the different types of climate change. Here, we provide a coherent definition for different types of climatic change, including 'abrupt climate change', and a summary of past abrupt climate-change events. We then review biotic responses to abrupt climate change, from the genetic to the ecosystem level, and show that abrupt climatic and ecological changes have been instrumental in shaping biodiversity. We also identify open questions, such as what causes species resilience after an abrupt change. However, identifying causal relationships between past climate change and biological responses remains difficult. We need to formalize and unify the definition of abrupt change across disciplines and further investigate past abrupt climate change periods to better anticipate and mitigate the impacts on biodiversity and society wrought by human-made climate change.

Impact of abrupt sea ice loss on Greenland water isotopes during the last glacial period

Greenland ice cores provide excellent evidence of past abrupt climate changes. However, there is no universally accepted theory of how and why these Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events occur. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain DO events, including sea ice, ice shelf buildup, ice sheets, atmospheric circulation, and meltwater changes. DO event temperature reconstructions depend on the stable water isotope ([Formula: see text]O) and nitrogen isotope measurements from Greenland ice cores: interpretation of these measurements holds the key to understanding the nature of DO events. Here, we demonstrate the primary importance of sea ice as a control on Greenland ice core [Formula: see text]O: 95% of the variability in [Formula: see text]O in southern Greenland is explained by DO event sea ice changes. Our suite of DO events, simulated using a general circulation model, accurately captures the amplitude of [Formula: see text]O enrichment during the abrupt DO event onsets. Simulated geographical variability is broadly consistent with available ice core evidence. We find an hitherto unknown sensitivity of the [Formula: see text]O paleothermometer to the magnitude of DO event temperature increase: the change in [Formula: see text]O per Kelvin temperature increase reduces with DO event amplitude. We show that this effect is controlled by precipitation seasonality.

Stable AMOC off state in an eddy-permitting coupled climate model

Shifts between on and off states of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have been associated with past abrupt climate change, supported by the bistability of the AMOC found in many older, coarser resolution, ocean and climate models. However, as coupled climate models evolved in complexity a stable AMOC off state no longer seemed supported. Here we show that a current-generation, eddy-permitting climate model has an AMOC off state that remains stable for the 450-year duration of the model integration. Ocean eddies modify the overall freshwater balance, allowing for stronger northward salt transport by the AMOC compared with previous, non eddy-permitting models. As a result, the salinification of the subtropical North Atlantic, due to a southward shift of the intertropical rain belt, is counteracted by the reduced salt transport of the collapsed AMOC. The reduced salinification of the subtropical North Atlantic allows for an anomalous northward freshwater transport into the subpolar North Atlantic dominated by the gyre component. Combining the anomalous northward freshwater transport with the freshening due to reduced evaporation in this region helps stabilise the AMOC off state.

Early warning signals of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapse in a fully coupled climate model

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits two stable states in models of varying complexity. Shifts between alternative AMOC states are thought to have played a role in past abrupt climate changes, but the proximity of the climate system to a threshold for future AMOC collapse is unknown. Generic early warning signals of critical slowing down before AMOC collapse have been found in climate models of low and intermediate complexity. Here we show that early warning signals of AMOC collapse are present in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, subject to a freshwater hosing experiment. The statistical significance of signals of increasing lag-1 autocorrelation and variance vary with latitude. They give up to 250 years warning before AMOC collapse, after ~550 years of monitoring. Future work is needed to clarify suggested dynamical mechanisms driving critical slowing down as the AMOC collapse is approached.

Siple Dome ice reveals two modes of millennial CO2 change during the last ice age.

Reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 during times of past abrupt climate change may help us better understand climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. Previous ice core studies reveal simultaneous increases in atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature during times when Greenland and the northern hemisphere experienced very long, cold stadial conditions during the last ice age. Whether this relationship extends to all of the numerous stadial events in the Greenland ice core record has not been clear. Here we present a high-resolution record of atmospheric CO2 from the Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica for part of the last ice age. We find that CO2 does not significantly change during the short Greenlandic stadial events, implying that the climate system perturbation that produced the short stadials was not strong enough to substantially alter the carbon cycle.

Younger Dryas deglaciation of Scotland driven by warming summers.

The Younger Dryas Stadial (YDS; ∼ 12,900-11,600 y ago) in the Northern Hemisphere is classically defined by abrupt cooling and renewed glaciation during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Although this event involved a global reorganization of atmospheric and oceanic circulation [Denton GH, Alley RB, Comer GC, Broecker WS (2005) Quat Sci Rev 24:1159-1182], the magnitude, seasonality, and geographical footprint of YDS cooling remain unresolved and pose a challenge to our understanding of abrupt climate change. Here, we present a deglacial chronology from Scotland, immediately downwind of the North Atlantic Ocean, indicating that the Scottish ice cap disintegrated during the first half of the YDS. We suggest that stratification of the North Atlantic Ocean resulted in amplified seasonality that, paradoxically, stimulated a severe wintertime climate while promoting warming summers through solar heating of the mixed layer. This latter process drove deglaciation of downwind landmasses to completion well before the end of the YDS.

The response of methane hydrate beneath the seabed offshore Svalbard to ocean warming during the next three centuries

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas and large‐scale rapid release of methane from hydrate may have contributed to past abrupt climate change inferred from the geological record. The discovery in 2008 of over 250 plumes of methane gas escaping from the seabed of the West Svalbard continental margin at ~400 m water depth (mwd) suggests that hydrate is dissociating in the present‐day Arctic. Here we model the dynamic response of hydrate‐bearing sediments over a period of 2300 years and investigate ocean warming as a possible cause for present‐day and likely future dissociation of hydrate, within 350–800 mwd, west of Svalbard. Future temperatures are given by two climate models, HadGEM2 and CCSM4, and scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 and 2.6. Our results suggest that over the next three centuries 5.3–29 Gg yr−1 of methane may be released to the Arctic Ocean on the West Svalbard margin.

Arctic climate tipping points.

There is widespread concern that anthropogenic global warming will trigger Arctic climate tipping points. The Arctic has a long history of natural, abrupt climate changes, which together with current observations and model projections, can help us to identify which parts of the Arctic climate system might pass future tipping points. Here the climate tipping points are defined, noting that not all of them involve bifurcations leading to irreversible change. Past abrupt climate changes in the Arctic are briefly reviewed. Then, the current behaviour of a range of Arctic systems is summarised. Looking ahead, a range of potential tipping phenomena are described. This leads to a revised and expanded list of potential Arctic climate tipping elements, whose likelihood is assessed, in terms of how much warming will be required to tip them. Finally, the available responses are considered, especially the prospects for avoiding Arctic climate tipping points.

Atmosphere-land surface interactions and their influence on extreme rainfall and potential abrupt climate change over southern Africa

In a changing climate, changes in rainfall variability and, in particular, extreme rainfall events are likely to be highly significant for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. It is generally accepted that sea-surface temperatures play an important role in modulating rainfall variability, thus the majority work to date has focused on these mechanisms. However past research suggests that land surface processes are also critical for rainfall variability. In particular, work has suggested that the atmosphere-land surface feedback has been important for past abrupt climate changes, such as those which occurred over the Sahara during the mid-Holocene or, more recently, the prolonged Sahelian drought. Therefore the primary aim of this work is to undertake idealised experiments using both a regional and global climate model, to test the sensitivity of rainfall variability to land surface changes over a location where such abrupt climate changes are projected to occur in the future, namely southern Africa. In one experiment, the desert conditions currently observed over southwestern Africa were extended to cover the entire subcontinent. This is based on past research which suggests a remobilisation of sand dune activity and spatial extent under various scenarios of future anthropogenic global warming. In the second experiment, savanna conditions were imposed over all of southern Africa, representing an increase in vegetation for most areas except the equatorial regions. The results suggest that a decrease in rainfall occurs in the desert run, up to 27% of total rainfall in the regional model (relative to the control), due to a reduction in available moisture, less evaporation, less vertical uplift and therefore higher near surface pressure. This result is consistent across both the regional and global model experiments. Conversely an increase in rainfall occurs in the savanna run, because of an increase in available moisture giving an increase in latent heat and therefore surface temperature, increasing vertical uplift and lowering near surface pressure. These experiments, however, are only preliminary, and form the first stage of a wider study into how the atmosphere-land surface feedback influences rainfall extremes over southern Africa in the past (when surface i.e. vegetation conditions were very different) and in the future under various scenarios of future climate change. Future work will examine how other climate models simulate the atmosphere-land surface feedback, using more realistic vegetation types based on past and future surface conditions.

Plausible effect of climate model bias on abrupt climate change simulations in Atlantic sector

Although considerable progress towards reducing tropical climate biases in the tropical Pacific has been made in many current-generation of climate models over the past decades, reducing large biases and maintaining good agreement with the observations in the tropical Atlantic is still a major challenge and this deficiency may seriously degrade the credibility of the models in their simulation and projection of future climate change in the Atlantic sector. In this paper, we show that the bias in the eastern equatorial Atlantic has a major effect on sea-surface temperature (SST) response to a rapid change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). By comparing identical water hosing experiments conducted with two different coupled general circulation models, we dissect oceanic mechanisms underlying the difference in models' SST response. The results show that the different SST response is plausibly attributed to systematic differences in the simulated tropical Atlantic ocean circulation. Therefore, in order to accurately simulate past abrupt climate changes and project future changes, the bias in climate models must be reduced.

Stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and stratification in a zonally averaged ocean model: Effects of freshwater flux, Southern Ocean winds, and diapycnal diffusion

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a crucial component of the global climate system. In this study, using a zonally averaged ocean model, we reexamine the sensitivity of this circulation, and ocean density structure in general, to several types of external forcing. The basin of the model extends from northern high latitudes to Antarctica and includes an implicit representation of a circumpolar channel in the South, and ocean circulation is driven by surface buoyancy fluxes and wind forcing. In contrast to earlier two-dimensional studies of the AMOC, our approach involves a careful treatment of the residual mean circulation (comprising the Eulerian-mean and eddy-induced flows), which is especially important for the Southern Ocean dynamics. Using boundary conditions consistent with present-day observations the model reproduces realistic ocean stratification and meridional overturning. The structure, intensity, and stability of the overturning are then extensively studied using three control parameters: the strength of westerly wind stress over the Southern Ocean, the magnitude of freshwater fluxes imposed on the northern Atlantic, and ocean diapycnal diffusivity. In a realistic parameter range, we estimate the AMOC sensitivity to changes in the Southern Ocean winds on the order of 1 Sv per 20% increase in the wind stress. The overturning also increases with diapycnal diffusivity, but the dependence is weaker than in the absence of the winds. The model can undergo a shutdown of the overturning (subject to a hysteresis) when either the freshwater forcing gradually increases or the wind stress decreases. The hysteresis loop disappears for large values of isopycnal diffusivity. Changes in the AMOC intensity are accompanied by changes in the volume transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Specifically, the AMOC collapse leads to a strengthening of this transport. Ultimately, our calculations produce stability maps for the steady states of the meridional overturning circulation and provide a general framework that potentially can be used to compare different models, or to understand past abrupt climate changes related to reorganization of the AMOC.