Passenger Market Research Articles

An empirical study on train choice preferences of high-speed railway passengers: the case of Nanning-Guangzhou railway and Nanning-Beihai railway

ABSTRACT This paper presents a systematic investigation of the train choice preference heterogeneity of High-Speed Railway (HSR) passengers under market segmentation to understand their train choice comprehensively. A stated preference survey was conducted for the Nanning-Guangzhou Railway and Nanning-Beihai Railway. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) was employed to identify homogeneous subgroups and segment the passenger market of each line into three segments: private travelers with a long total duration (PTLTD), business travelers (BT), and private travelers with a short total duration (PTSTD). Mixed Logit (ML) models were constructed for each subgroup sample to assess passengers' preferences in train choice. The results show that each class exhibited unique characteristics and preferences, and train fare and running time, departure date and time, and train frequency were statistically significant factors affecting train choice. This study can furnish theoretical and decisional support for HSR operators to design train operating schemes and flexible fare systems.

Regular domestic air passenger market dynamics: The Brazilian case

Brazil occupies a prominent position as one of the largest domestic air passenger markets globally. In May 2019, OAG Aviation Worldwide Limited (OAG), a renowned global travel data provider, ranked Brazil as the world’s 6th largest domestic market. This study identifies and meticulously analyses statistical trends in how service levels affect passenger demand on domestic air routes in Brazil. To that end, it employs a panel-data gravity model incorporating service as an instrumental variable. The findings confirm the influence of traditional gravity explanatory variables, while also contributing novel insights into the impact of service levels on domestic routes. The analysis reveals that, while factors such as income and distance play a fundamental role in shaping domestic demand, level of service emerges as a crucial determinant on regional connections. Overall, the statistics suggest growing divergences between Brazilian airlines and regional air transport. Accordingly, substantial changes are necessary in both government policies and the services offered by the airline industry in order to harness the full potential of Brazil’s domestic air transport passenger market and foster regional development.

Evaluation of forecasting models for improved passenger market management and rolling stock planning on Indian railways

Purpose Indian railways (IR) is one of the largest railway networks in the world. As a part of its strategic development initiative, demand forecasting can be one of the indispensable activities, as it may provide basic inputs for planning and control of various activities such as coach production, planning new trains, coach augmentation and quota redistribution. The purpose of this study is to suggest an approach to demand forecasting for IR management. Design/methodology/approach A case study is carried out, wherein several models i.e. automated autoregressive integrated moving average (auto-ARIMA), trigonometric regressors (TBATS), Holt–Winters additive model, Holt–Winters multiplicative model, simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average methods have been tested. As per requirements of IR management, the adopted research methodology is predominantly discursive, and the passenger reservation patterns over a five-year period covering a most representative train service for the past five years have been employed. The relative error matrix and the Akaike information criterion have been used to compare the performance of various models. The Diebold–Mariano test was conducted to examine the accuracy of models. Findings The coach production strategy has been proposed on the most suitable auto-ARIMA model. Around 6,000 railway coaches per year have been produced in the past 3 years by IR. As per the coach production plan for the year 2023–2024, a tentative 6551 coaches of various types have been planned for production. The insights gained from this paper may facilitate need-based coach manufacturing and optimum utilization of the inventory. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature on rail ticket demand forecasting and adds value to the process of rolling stock management. The proposed model can be a comprehensive decision-making tool to plan for new train services and assess the rolling stock production requirement on any railway system. The analysis may help in making demand predictions for the busy season, and the management can make important decisions about the pricing of services.

Converting passenger aircraft into cargo planes under volatile market demand

The COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected airlines’ passenger businesses, while the air cargo sector has been more resilient. To reduce the financial pressure and tap into the profitable cargo business, airlines around the world are actively converting passenger aircraft into cargo planes (i.e., preighters). This paper develops an integrated economic model to examine airlines’ aircraft conversion strategies when facing dynamic market demand due to the pandemic. We consider the possibility of temporary conversion, i.e., passenger aircraft that have been converted into preighters during the pandemic can be converted back into passenger aircraft after the pandemic. We find that when the air cargo transport price is exogenous, the socially optimal conversion rates are lower than the profit-maximizing level for airlines in both the pandemic and the post-pandemic periods, and a government subsidy reduces social welfare. Competition in the passenger market or the cargo market increases conversion rates under both the airline optimum and social optimum, and widens the gap between them. However, if the airlines can influence the air cargo transport price, conversion rates may be higher under the social optimum than under the airline optimum. Competition in the passenger market and the cargo market has opposite effects on the two optimal conversion rates. When the expected cargo market size is small (large), the conversion rates in the social optimum are lower (higher) than the airline optimums, and a government subsidy worsens (enhances) social welfare. Finally, we extend our model by incorporating more real-world factors, such as the lower efficiency of preighters than that of freighters, the freighter leasing market and airlines’ lay-up of idle passenger aircraft. Most of our analytical results remain valid.

Comparison of Artificial Intelligence Techniques for The UK Air Passenger Short-Term Demand Forecasting: A Destination Insight Study

Web search queries become essential drivers to forecast air passenger demand for operational benefits. Scholars and marketing experts. Forecasting passenger demand is one of the most important marketing problems that experts frequently encounter, but there are very few studies in the literature using search queries. The main novelty of this study is to show that Destination Insight (DI) can be useful as an air passenger demand proxy in the UK. To prove this primary objective, this work uses several machine and deep learning multi-layer perceptron (MLP) methods based on a big-data framework. The findings indicate that DI is a crucial predictor of the UK air passenger demand. Besides, popular error metrics (RMSE, MAPE, MAD and AIC) were compared to find the best model in this study. Specifically, results indicate that MLP following feed forward neural networks works better for the UK air passenger market.

Long-distance rail in Europe: Comparing the forms of head-on competition across Europe

Europe is finally entering a season of liberalisation in the long-distance rail passenger market, which takes the form of on-track competition among public and private operators. The paper provides a broad-scope comparison of relevant European markets, belonging to liberalised and non-liberalised countries, aiming to point out the patterns in terms of supply, competition model and prices. The paper is based on a sample of heterogeneous 69 city-pairs, analysed in two fourteen days periods in 2019 (May/June and November). All available modes are observed, collecting info on companies, frequency of services, and cheapest price. The analysis starts from a schematisation of different business models, based on literature. Then, using the database, we study the country's supply structure, size, and level of intermodal and intra-modal competition through HHIs. Prices are analysed in two steps: the average prices and the price dispersion, searching for their main determinants, including but not limited to competition. Results show that a higher competition level is not always corresponding to low prices, which are instead determined by many other factors such as size of market, demand, socio-economic characteristics, subsidies, production costs, speed advantage, strength of the incumbent, etc. The competition level, instead, directly influences the quality, the supplied capacity, and the price dispersion.

Diverted and induced demand: Evidence from the London-Paris passenger market

The paper investigates passengers' preferences and demand induction (or reduction) patterns for the London-Paris passenger market. By leveraging an integrated model calibrated on an extensive dataset about passenger flows between London and Paris during the period 2009–2019, we investigate key dimensions by which travelers evaluate transport modes and how both socio-economic characteristics and supply-attribute variations contribute to stimulating or reducing the overall demand. The research confirms the importance of attributes, such as travel times, fares, and frequencies on passenger modal choice, providing some sketches about passengers' propensity toward air or high-speed rail (HSR) mode. Based on data in this study, we find that ceteris paribus a one-trip increase in the daily frequency of Eurostar would stimulate demand for more than 94,500 passengers per year (2.3% of current ridership), while a reduction of HSR travel time by 10 min would increase current flows by at least 1.3%. Analyzing the demand implications of a possible policy of ending air routes for environmental purposes, we prove that the cancellation of air connections would result in a reduction of current demand higher than 6%. HSR service providers could offset the reduction in service levels resulting from air routes closure mainly by leveraging service frequency.

Can the ladder of investment approach make on-track competition sustainable in the railway market? A study of asymmetric infrastructure access charges

The gradual liberalisation of the EU railway market, which began in the early 2000s, has entered its final phase with the formal opening of national markets for commercial passenger transport. However, the level of competition established in some countries is still not sufficient to increase passenger welfare. Based on the previous experience, this phenomenon stems from high barriers to entry for new operators, such as high sunk costs, relatively high infrastructure train access charges (TAC) for commercial passenger traffic, and competition between asymmetric participants, where the incumbent still dominates the market. One of the solutions to improve the conditions for entry is asymmetric market regulation, used in the telecommunications sector. The asymmetric access regulation is based on lower TAC for entrants than for incumbent for a limited period, which is part of the ladder of investment (LOI) approach. In principle, the current EU regulatory framework requires equal and non-discriminatory TAC for all railway operators which provide similar services in a similar market segment with similar infrastructure quality. Any deviation from this principle must be justified. In practice, infrastructure managers (IM) often charge much higher TAC than the marginal cost of using the infrastructure for long-distance passenger traffic because that market can absorb this higher cost. This does not leave much possibility for entry or survival of potential entrants in the passenger market segment. Therefore, this paper will present a duopoly competition model between asymmetric on-track competitors within the commercial passenger transport market segment. We will explain the pros and cons of the introduction of asymmetric access regulation as an essential package of market entry strategy to establish sustainable competition for commercial passenger railway transport services.

A Study towards Passenger Satisfaction Level of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport, Gujarat, India

This significant expansion is expected to be underpinned by a trebling in the proportion of middle-class households and further increases in time-saving options for air passengers. This highlights the important role aviation can play in connecting the country – both internally and with the rest of the world. This strong growth outlook for air passenger demand will see India overtake Germany, Japan, Spain, and the UK within the next 10 years to become the world’s third largest air passenger market. These are exciting times for the air transport industry in India. The course, the future will not be without challenges – for those in the industry and policy-makers and regulators alike. These challenges will include making sure that the right type of infrastructure is put into place, at the right time and in the right location to ensure that the demand can be met, as well as ensuring that the regulatory environment is one which successfully fosters a competitive and healthy airline transport sector that will continue to make a major contribution to the Indian economy in the years to come. A robust and financially sound industry is critical to delivering the benefits that aviation can bring – creating jobs, bringing families together, facilitating business, and supporting trade, investment and economic growth.

Sport utility vehicles and willingness-to-downsize: A mixed-method exploration of functional, symbolic, and societal consumer perceptions in Canada

The growing share of sport utility vehicles (SUVs) in the passenger market is challenging various sustainability and decarbonization goals. In our case study of Canada, SUVs and pickup trucks made up 80% of new vehicle sales in recent years. In this paper, we explore what motivates consumer interest in purchasing SUVs, and their “willingness-to-downsize” to a car. We employ a framework that considers functional, symbolic, and societal perceptions of SUVs. Our mixed-methods approach includes quantitative insights from a survey of Metro Vancouver citizens (n = 986), and qualitative insights from a subset of those individuals via six focus groups (n = 37). We find that SUV drivers view their vehicles as functionally superior to smaller cars in terms of safety, space for lifestyle, handling, and fun. Symbolically, SUVs are seen as a “status symbol” that can communicate a number of images, such as being “successful”. SUV drivers are more likely to see these vehicles as common and “approved” in their social networks, and tend to downplay any negative societal impacts such as increased GHG emissions. Across respondents intending to buy an SUV, willingness-to-downsize to a smaller vehicle was highest under financial incentives (for buying or using a car) or disincentives (for buying or using an SUV). Multivariate analysis confirms that SUV interest and willingness-to-downsize are associated with functional, symbolic, and societal perceptions of SUVs. Results provide insights into the physical and social entrenchment of SUVs among drivers. Changing this trend will be difficult, and likely requires the use of strong policies.

Infrastructure access charges, service differentiation, and strategic competition in the EU railway passenger market.

• Introduction of competition in the EU railway passenger market. • The network infrastructure manager grants network capacity to railway operators. • Service differentiation arises by distinguishing between peak and off-peak services. • Operators compete by setting prices to capture demand. • Trains’ frequency, fares and consumers’ utility strongly depend on the regulatory scheme.

An alternative regulatory approach for long-distance passenger rail services: An explorative analysis with a focus on Germany

Regulatory efforts to introduce effective intramodal competition to the rail sector, in particular to the long-distance intercity market segment, have so far been only marginally successful in Germany. This stands in stark contrast to some other EU member states such as Italy, Sweden, Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Spain and, most recently, France. In 2019, the year before the outbreak of the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic and 25 years after Germany’s fundamental 1994 ‘Bahnstrukturreform’ (structural reform of the railway system), which eliminated the legal network monopoly of former Deutsche Bundesbahn for passenger transport services, the combined market share of all competitors for long-distance passenger services was still marginal at 4 per cent (Bundesnetzagentur, 2021a, 26). By contrast, its competitors’ market shares stood at 28 per cent for short-distance (regional) services – where a competition for the market regime had been established – and at 54 per cent in the rail cargo segment – which is governed by an open access regime. In this paper, based on a comparative institution analysis, we explore an alternative regulatory regime to substantially increase effective intramodal competition in Germany’s intercity rail passenger market: open access to the incumbent’s seat inventory. Our main finding is that, compared to the existing yet ineffective open (track) access regime, our proposed alternative considerably reduces entry barriers for newcomers and simplifies regulatory oversight given the specific features of Germany’s railway market.

Competition and Entry Deterrence in the International Flight Market: Evidence from Korean Regional Airport

This study examines carriers’ entry of the Korean international routes at Daegu International Airport from 2010 to 2018. We investigate whether carriers’ entry into the international flight market is deterred by pre-existing carriers. The competition level of the six months before entry has a much higher contribution to the decision to launch route service. The lower the market concentration six months ago, the less likely a new carrier entry in the current period; competitive and increasingly crowded routes are hindered by entry barriers, deterring new entrants to the international flight market. The shorter the flight distance and the larger the air passenger market, the higher the probability of entering a new airline carrier. New entrants to non-stop point-to-point route structures are more likely on short-haul routes and routes operated by at least one low-cost carrier.

The intercity railway connections in China: A comparative analysis of high-speed train and conventional train services

The high-speed railway (HSR) has been an essential medium for intercity connections in China. However, despite the great achievements in HSR development, conventional railway (CR) still plays an important role in China's railway passenger market. In this study, we construct urban networks based on China's high-speed train (HST) and conventional train (CT) services, and compare the characteristics of HST and CT services in spatial distribution. Moreover, policy implications are proposed for coordinating the HSR and CR systems based on the actual operating performance of the two modes. The results show that China's HST and CT services are complementary in terms of spatial distribution. Both HSR and CR achieve high passenger volumes in prosperous regions, but CR performs better in areas with lower socioeconomic performance. We suggest that there is a significant potential for the cooperation between China's HSR and CR systems, but some operating and technological challenges must be overcome.

Ensuring the competitiveness and the sustainability of railway enterprises in a crisis environment

The article is devoted to theoretical, methodological and practical research of the problem of ensuring the competitiveness and the sustainability of railway transport enterprises in conditions of the deep socio-economic and political crisis in Ukraine. It was established that in modern crisis conditions, in order to ensure a stable competitive position in the passenger and freight transport market, railway transport enterprises should focus on the systematic introduction of innovations, improving management methods, and enhance the quality of business processes. The definition of the concept of "competitiveness of railway transport enterprises" was clarified by summarizing scientific works and studying the competitive ad-vantages of industry enterprises. The main requirements of consumers for the ser-vices of railway transport enterprises are systematized, the consideration of which in the process of transport services will contribute to increasing the competitive ad-vantage of railway enterprises. An algorithmic sequence of benchmarking for rail-way transport enterprises was created in the article. An innovative model for ensur-ing the competitiveness and the sustainability of railway transport enterprises has been developed, which contributes to their adaptation to a dynamic external envi-ronment by organizing the continuity of innovative development aimed at finding and constantly introducing innovations as a basis for the formation of sustainable competitive advantages by railway transport enterprises in a crisis environment. It has been proved that the effectiveness of the implementation of this model de-pends on the balanced functioning of all its elements and taking into account the operational and strategic goals of the innovative development of railway transport enterprises.

Influence of Covid-19 on Air Passenger Market in China Based on Dynamic Distributed Lag Model

This paper studied the influence of COVID-19 on air passenger market in China. Affecting factors were selected from economic recovery, epidemic development and vaccination. Dynamic distribution lag model was established to simulate the influence mechanism. Research results showed that economic recovery and vaccination could significantly promote the recovery of air passenger market. The impact of economic recovery was obviously time lagged. The impact on air passenger market recovery between China and the United States was significantly different. Based on three scenario assumptions of the epidemic development, it was predicted that China's air passenger volume in 2021 would be between 530 and 560 million. The recovery of China's air passenger market in 2021 would be fluctuated by about 5-6 percentage points due to different epidemic situation.

A comparative strategic analysis of China Airlines and EVA Air

The two biggest airlines in Taiwan – China Airlines and EVA Air – face a wide range of similar strategic opportunities and challenges, while also pursuing considerably different strategic priorities in some key areas. This paper conducts a comparative strategic analysis of these two airlines by considering the key success factors (KSFs) of fleet mix and size, international partnerships and cooperation, network scope and global reach, and brand awareness and loyalty. Despite geopolitical restrictions, both carriers have developed sizable fleets, networks and partnerships with a global ambition, effectively creating a duopoly that controls half of the passenger market and almost two-thirds of the cargo market in Taiwan. Their brands are recognized outside Taiwan, although EVA Air enjoys slightly better perception of quality by rating companies and passengers. Yet, external realities have greater potential to determine each airline's future strategic trajectory, rather than internal KSFs. Both airlines help to illustrate the global connectivity that the airline industry can foster and promote, and each provides a counterbalance to regional tensions and divisions by doing so.

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The issues of implementation of long-term goals of sustainable development of sea passenger transportation, achievement of transportation results, overcoming the negative impact of factors of unstable external environment, which are determined by the chosen course laid down in the basis of strategic management of ferry transportation and choice of route directions, are investigated in the paper. The study indicates that despite the negative impact of COVID-19 and the resulting delayed passenger demand for cruise services, the potential of the maritime ferry and cruise market is very high. It is noted that since 2021 there is a gradual process of recovery of route networks, which takes place in different regions with different dynamics. Therefore, the goals of ferry companies are to implement several strategic planning tasks, among which the task of designing the most efficient new route network is relevant, while companies can start to implement route networks and destinations based on the existing route networks (e. g. networks and destinations of the Baltic Sea) for 2019. It is emphasized that due to the new possibility to attract additional passenger traffic, detailed research and modelling of different options is needed. The Baltic Sea region is chosen as the object for the study, since the local mobility of passageways makes it possible to renew the routes in the shortest possible time. The data for different seas, characterizing the intervals of decline and justifying the necessity of innovations on the basis of new competitive routes creation, are presented in the study. The subject of the study is routes and route networks of the seas regions. The use of models in the form of graphs and algorithms, such as Dijkstra’s algorithm, is proposed for modelling different variants of sea ferry routes architecture. The new ferry route network model is implemented in the J-Circos software environment for the subsequent construction of various intensity diagram options. Due to the flexibility of the interfaces and the software environment it is possible to combine the existing networks in 2019 and the proposed new routes in a single information field. In this way, a new possibility to assess the position of a ferry company on the passenger market and to evaluate the quantitative indicators in relation to the other ferry and cruise companies is considered in the paper. The proposed solutions are included in a separate decision-making flowchart for selecting a promotion strategy in the sea region ferry market. The solutions presented have versatility, the methodology and implementation can also be applied to the other sea regions. A new possibility of representing evolutionary changes in the route networks, which also provides an opportunity to further improve the quality of strategic planning and promotion decision-making, forming a separate area of analytical work of a maritime ferry company, is considered.

Transforming a steam train: a historical institutionalist analysis of EU railway policy

ABSTRACT The European Commission wants to transform the railways as part of its wider sustainable transport policy agenda. However, the railways provide territorial cohesion and public services at the national level with little on-track competition or international services. The Council has resisted the Commission’s attempt to transform the railways. This article uses historical institutionalism to analyse feedback loops in EU railway policymaking, specifically analysing how the issue of EU railway governance has influenced policy development and how Council discussions concerning the opening of the domestic passenger market reveals a temporal dimension in policy development. The article shows how the Council continues both to reduce the speed and change the direction of EU railway policymaking and that the adopted policies are ambiguous and create path dependency at the EU level while retaining national-level path dependency. The article demonstrates the close relationship between historical institutionalism and railway policy in favouring stability over transformation.

Prospects for Creating a Regional Budget Airline in the Republic of Crimea

The 2020 crisis caused by the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic had a positive influence on the development of regional air travel. Against the background of an overall drop in passenger traffic exceeding 40%, a number of airports in the Southern Federal District have demonstrated positive development dynamics. With the opening of regular flights to cities in the Southern Federal District and the Republic of Crimea, a number of airports in the Central Federal District and the Volga Federal District by the end of 2020 increased passenger traffic due to the development of the domestic route network. The Russian air passenger market demonstrated high growth and development rates during the period of 2009–2019. The underlying factors of growth and development were the implementation of the subsidizing regional air routes program, the development of competition and the increase in the growth rate of production of the regional jet “SSJ-100”. According to the results of activities at the end of 2020, the Russian regional airline (a mono-operator of the “SSJ-100” jet) demonstrated the lowest rate of passenger traffic reduction. The airline also increased its aircraft fleet by 2 units and expanded its regional route network. The Republic of Crimea is a strategically important region of the Russian Federation. Modernization of the regional logistics complex, which includes the development of regular flights to the regions of the Russian Federation, is a priority task of domestic policy. Based on the structural analysis of the air passenger market and the regional logistics system, a model for creating a regional budget airline for the Republic of Crimea is proposed. The result of overcoming the 2008 crisis on the European air passenger market was the strengthening of the role and influence of the budget airlines (increase in market share from 15% to 50% from 2009 to 2019). The low-cost air transportation segment of the Russian market demonstrates high potential for development due to growing demand. The development of regional air transportation is one of the key factors in the development of the national aircraft construction system. The results of the study can be used in developing a strategy for the aviation logistics system of the Republic of Crimea, as well as in developing strategies for the development of regional airports on the island and peninsular territories.