Party Preferences Research Articles

Australian voters' attitudes to climate action and their social-political determinants.

Australia is a relative laggard on climate policy, amidst social and political fractures despite rising support for climate policy in opinion polls. In the 2019 Australian federal election, which was dubbed the ‘climate election’, the opposition campaigned on comparatively ambitious climate action but the government was returned on a status quo policy. We explore the social-political determinants of climate attitudes and how they are positioned in relation to voting behaviour, in the context of the 2019 election. We use a large nationally representative survey of Australian voters (n = 2,033), and employ univariate and multivariate ordinal logistic regression models to uncover correlates. We find that a large majority of voters think it is important for Australia to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the importance given to emissions reductions is sharply divided along lines of political party preference. Holding pro-climate action attitudes consistently correlates with voting for progressive political parties and having higher levels of education. We also find a strong age cohort divide, with younger people holding stronger pro-climate attitudes than older people, raising the question whether we are seeing the emergence of a new generation expressing strong pro-climate action and progressive political attitudes that will persist over time. We conduct population ageing scenarios to project changes to public opinion, by age group, into the future. These indicate that strong support for climate action would increase by about four percentage points over the coming decade as younger voters replace the old, if attitudes within cohorts remained fixed. We conclude that while cleavages in climate attitudes in Australia are set to continue, efforts to promote climate delay are bound to have a limited shelf life as a growing majority of voters accepts the need for climate action.

Judges as Party Animals: Retirement Timing by Federal Judges and Party Control of Judicial Appointments

Longstanding debate over the Politicized Departure Hypothesis (PDH) asserts that federal judges arrange to retire under presidents of the same political party as the presidents who first appointed them, thereby giving that party the right to nominate their successor. PDH is important for assessing political party agency by judges, who receive no consequent personal benefit, and for explaining the long-term political party orientation of courts. Previous PDH studies suffer from absent data on known and unknown determinants of retirement timing and correlational rather than causal methods. To avoid both problems, we apply 11 sharp regression discontinuity (SRD) analyses to voluntary judicial departures before and after six elections (1920-2016) that replaced Democratic presidents with Republicans and five elections that replaced Republicans with Democrats. We contrast judicial decisions to retire, resign, or take senior status during the days before a regime-changing election with such decisions during an equal number of days after the inauguration of a president from the other party, with tests performed for periods approximating 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24 months. For pre-election and post-inauguration observation periods of 270 days, for example, the results of 10 of 11 analyses, including difference tests and difference-in-difference tests, are as predicted by PDH: judges were more likely to retire when the same party holds the presidency as when they were first appointed to the federal bench. Serendipitously, judges appointed by Republican presidents appear to respond more strongly than Democratic appointees to changes in the party holding the White House. We offer a novel explanation of PDH based on normative reciprocity in addition to ideology. We also suggest using politicized departure to examine effects of former judges’ political party agency on their prior judicial decisions.

URUGUAY, LOS REGIONALISMOS Y LA INTEGRACIÓN REGIONAL: EL PARTIDO NACIONAL, SU NEOHERRERISMO Y LA DESVINCULACIÓN DE LA REGIÓN COMO ESTRATEGIA

In 2020, a right coalitional government leaded by the National Party started in Uruguay, after 15 years of left governments. There are signs that show the beginning of a eorientation of foreign policy towards greater trade openness and attracting investment. As a counterpart, there seems to be a loss of the relative importance of the region in Uruguayan foreign policy, which includes demands for the opening up and flexibilitation of the Mercosur and a repositioning against regionalism. This change promoted by the new government may be counterintuitive in relation to the regional vocation traditionally attributed by literature to the National Party. However, through the analysis of a census and interviews with legislators, the article shows that in the last decade party preferences have already outlined this relegation of the region. In this way, we argue that a pragmatic, realistic and deeply liberal “neoherrerismo” is emerging in the National Party, as a predominant tendency in the international vision of the government

Sympathy, Blame, and Just Allocation of Health Costs Entailed by Risky Conventional Lifestyles

How does the general public feel about people suffering from lifestyle related conditions, and what do they see as a socially just division health costs for these conditions? Using data from random, nationwide surveys of Australians, 1989-2001 (n=8031) my structural equation model with multiple-item measurement and corrections for attenuation due to random measurement error predicts respondents’ ideal division of medical payment responsibility. The only significant sociodemographic influence is education, which inclines people towards governmental financial responsibility. Cultural and social-psychological factors have large effects. A net time trend favors individual responsibility. Blaming sufferers is strongly associated with favoring individual responsibility. By contrast, people who sympathize with the sufferers tend to favor government payments. Political party preference also matters: Partisans of the main conservative party tend to support individual responsibility. There are clear implications for the current COVID-19 epidemic, especially with regards to “social distancing” behavior.

Bargaining strategies in bilateral electricity trading based on fuzzy Bayesian learning

Bilateral electricity trading is a general transaction mode in electricity market, market subjects’ trading strategies will influence social welfare of the market. This study aims to explore effective bargaining strategies promoting the realization of Nash bargaining solution in bilateral electricity trading. The non cooperative bargaining models with preferences in incomplete information and the fuzzy Bayesian learning are combined to optimize the trading strategies. The results show that: (1) the bargaining strategy considering the preferences of both parties to balance the utility maximization and the acceptance of offers is equal allocation of benefits, and it promotes the formation of equilibrium close to social welfare maximization; (2) fuzzy Bayesian learning can accelerate the bargaining process; (3) compared with simultaneous offers bargaining, in alternating offers bargaining, the convergence to equilibrium is faster and parties have first-mover advantage.

Narracje alternatywne i marginalne w uchwałach rocznicowych sejmu i senatu rzeczypospolitej polskiej w latach 2009-2019

Alternative and Marginal Narrations in the Anniversary Resolutions of the Sejm and Senate of the Republic of Poland in 2009-2019. Example of Resolutions Commemorating the 70th and 80th Anniversaries of the Outbreak of the Second World War
 Historical anniversaries generate breakthroughs, mark systemic and political turns, and remind us of the events and characters from the past. The subject of the article are the anniversary resolutions of the Sejm and the Senate of the Republic of Poland, which I define as a tool for shaping the politics of memory and collective memory that are one of the forms of commemorating the past and serving the political authorities as means for its interpretation. I assume that the choice of anniversaries and historical figures that deserve to be commemorated is dictated by the ideological and political orientation of political parties and groups. In the above context, it is worth asking the question – referring to the title of the article – should the anniversary resolutions of the Sejm and the Senate of the Republic of Poland, their form, content, as well as way of proceeding and adopting them be considered as important and momentous narratives, or rather as alternative and marginal ones? The considerations will be illustrated with ex amples of resolutions adopted on the occasion of the 70th and 80th anniversaries of the outbreak of the Second World War.

Problems associated with usage of “gray” electoral techniques and prevention of abuse of subjective electoral rights: thoughts in the lead-up to the State Duma Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation deputies

The object of this research is the legal relations in the area of exercising rights by parties and individuals, while the subject consists in the legal norms establishing the legal position of citizens and parties in the sphere of electoral law, as well as norms regulating the order of organization and electoral process in the Russian Federation. The goal of this article is to use a comprehensive interdisciplinary political-legal approach to determine problems in legal regulation of organization and process of elections in the Russian Federation, determine defective positions and gaps in the legislation, as well as make proposals on improving participation of parties in elections. The authors believe that in modern Russia the time for political transformation has already been lost, and we will see a drastic change of economic and then political elites. The only way to prevent forceful usurpation of power among other manifestations of extremism is to create environment and mechanisms for indiscriminant access to elections for a broad scope of sociopolitical powers through corresponding changes in electoral legislation. The proposed measures on improving legislation on deputy elections to the representative branches of government and local self-governance are aimed at prevention of abuse of subjective electoral rights (electoral mechanisms). Among them are countermeasures for usage of “gray” electoral techniques and creation of new legal regulation of participation in elections of collective political subjects (political actors) as parties, as well as increasing the role of non-parliamentary political parties in electoral process and revision of particular provisions of the right of party preferences.

Stability and change in party preferences: Evidence from Latin America

Why do voters shift partisan allegiances between elections and/or within electoral cycles? Drawing on panel survey data, this study is designed to enhance our understanding of shifting partisan preferences byexploring vote switching and split-ticket voting inthe Latin American context. Its main finding and contribution to the existing literature on stability and change in partisan preferences centers around the importance of candidate viability relative to party identification and other individual characteristics shaping vote choice.

Politics of Nostalgia and Populism: Evidence from Turkey

AbstractThis article scrutinizes the relationship between collective nostalgia and populism. Different populist figures utilize nostalgia by referring to their country's ‘good old’ glorious days and exploiting resentment of the elites and establishment. Populists instrumentalize nostalgia in order to create their populist heartland, which is a retrospectively constructed utopia based on an abandoned but undead past. Using two original datasets from Turkey, this study first analyzes whether collective nostalgia characterizes populist attitudes of the electorate. The results illustrate that collective nostalgia has a significantly positive relationship with populist attitudes even after controlling for various independent variables, including religiosity, partisanship, satisfaction with life and Euroscepticism. Secondly, the study tests whether nostalgic messages affect populist attitudes using an online survey experiment. The results indicate that Ottoman nostalgia helps increase populist attitudes. Kemalist nostalgia, however, has a weak direct effect on populist attitudes that disappears after controlling for party preference.

Immigration, Race & Political Polarization

Abstract Americans' views of immigration are substantially more positive than political discourse since 2010 might suggest. And they are becoming more positive. So too are Whites' views of Blacks, as racial resentment declined from 2010 to 2018. Views of immigration and race became more correlated over the last twenty years. And both are more correlated with political party preference now than at any time on record. While Republicans' views of immigration and their racial resentment have changed very little since 2010, Democrats' views of immigration have become far more positive and their racial resentment has declined substantially. The consequences of these trends were borne out dramatically in the 2016 presidential election. In combination, the two attitudes predict well who voted for Trump and who voted for Clinton. These trends and correlations make clear that xenophobic Americans are not ascendant, they are desperate. The dynamics of race, immigration, and polarization tilt in favor of both more immigration and a more progressive view of racial disparities.

Prominence over Proximity? The Effects of Terrorist Attacks on Party Preferences for Incumbent versus Populist Radical Right Parties

How does a terrorist attack affect party preferences? Based on existing theories, we would either expect incumbent parties to benefit because of a rally-effect, or populist radical right parties to gain due to a radicalization of voters' preferences. These competing theories are tested with a unique data set of 413.175 voters' responses on a Voting Advice Application. We do so using a novel way to leverage exogenous events using big public opinion data. We show that a terrorist attack has a positive effect for the main incumbent party, even when voters' positions on the issues owned by the populist radical right parties become more radicalized. This means that during crises, voters rally around the flag and prefer prominence over proximity.

Personalising haemophilia management with shared decision making

Abstract The current standard of care for treating people with haemophilia (PWH) in the developed world is prophylaxis with regular infusions of clotting factor concentrates. Gene therapy is being investigated as a new treatment paradigm for haemophilia and if approved would potentially eliminate the need for chronic, burdensome infusions. In recent years, shared decision making (SDM) has become increasingly common in patient care settings. SDM is a stepwise process that relies on reciprocal information sharing between the practitioner and patient, resulting in health care decisions stemming from the informed preferences of both parties. SDM represents a departure from the traditional, paternalistic clinical model where the practitioner drives the treatment decision and the patient passively defers to this decision. As the potential introduction of gene therapy in haemophilia may transform the current standard of care, and impact disease management and goals in unique ways, both practitioners and PWH may find their knowledge tested when considering the appropriate use of a novel technology. Therefore, it is incumbent upon haemophilia practitioners to foster an open, trusting, and supportive relationship with their patients, while PWH and their caregivers must be knowledgeable and feel empowered to participate in the decision making process to achieve truly shared treatment decisions.

Something Old, Something New: Finnish Living Historical Memory in the 2010s

In this article, the authors present new results and discuss Finnish living historical memory in the 2010s. The data was collected as part of an international online survey in 2018–2019. The authors analyze the responses of 303 Finns who were asked to list three of the most influential events in Finnish history that had occurred in their lifetime or in the lifetime of someone they knew or had known. Cluster analysis is used to gain insight into the heterogeneous set of events that the respondents recalled. Finnish membership of the European Union (1995), recent global upheavals (e.g., 9/11), and historically more distant wars (1939–1944) characterize living historical memory. Five clusters—internationalizing nation, threatened nation, surviving nation, in favor of the European Union, and against the European Union—were discovered. Standpoints with regard to the European Union divide the respondent group. Political party preference and the level of identification with the world as a whole are related to cluster membership. Despite the differences in the level of identification and political orientation, the study shows a relatively homogeneous way of remembering events of the last century.

Comparative analysis of students’ political party preferences on the eve of the 2011 and 2016 State Duma elections (on the example of the NEFU named after M.K. Ammosov)

Comparative analysis of students’ political party preferences on the eve of the 2011 and 2016 State Duma elections (on the example of the NEFU named after M.K. Ammosov)

Теоретико-методологічні аспекти діяльності політичних партій європейських держав на сучасному етапі

The article is about the theoretical and methodological aspects of determining the place and role of political parties in the social development of modern European states in a dialectical combination of integration and disintegration processes. It is noted that the political parties of modern European countries are developing in accordance with common laws and system parameters. The specific features of the activities of European parties in the context of the formation of European parliamentarism as a fundamentally new phenomenon in the political life of the integration association are considered. It is determined that political parties in modern political systems of European countries embody in their activities a set of functional aspects, which include systemic, information-communicative, selective, ideological-programmatic, integration, representative. It is shown that the functioning of political parties of EU member states is influenced by the dichotomous influence of both integration and disintegration processes in the region, as exemplified by the withdrawal of the UK from the UK, formally completed in 2020. Political parties of European states in the current conditions of social development are influenced by several major methodological dominants, among which should be noted foreign policy (integration), domestic policy, socio-economic, socio-cultural, information and communication. It is emphasized that public dissatisfaction with the activities of political parties and the party system in general was one of the factors influencing public opinion in the UK during the process of leaving the EU, which characterizes the need to modernize certain aspects of the organization and activities of modern European political parties, especially in terms of achieving a clearer definition of party orientations and views on ways to solve the most pressing problems facing today's individual member states and the EU as a whole.

Party competition on climate policy: The roles of interest groups, ideology and challenger parties in the UK and Ireland

This study shows how interest group–party relations, parties’ cross-cutting policy preferences, and competition with challenger parties shape the structure of issue competition on climate policy. It uses the ‘most similar’ cases of the UK and Ireland to show how differences in party systems influence the structure of issue competition. The study takes up the challenge of integrating salience and position in the conceptualisation of climate policy preferences. Empirically, it provides new evidence on factors influencing climate policy preferences and the party politics of climate change, focusing on interest groups, party ideology, and challenger parties. Further, it identifies similarities between the general literature on interest group influence on party preferences and the literature on interest groups in climate politics, and seeks to make connections between them.

준연동형 비례대표제 아래 정당 선호순위와 전략적 분할투표에 관한 연구 : 21대 한국 총선 사례

이 글은 준연동형 비례대표제를 도입한 21대 총선을 사례로 전략적인 분할투표를 연구한다. 특히 사표방지와 연합보장 분할투표가 동기가 다른 동일한 행태라는 점에 주목하여 선거에서 유의미한 득표율을 보였던 민주당, 통합당, 정의당, 국민의당에 부여한 온도지수를 이용하여 총 69개의 선호 순위를 구축해 투표선택과 비교 분석했다. 그 결과 응답자의 86.9%가 선호순위에 걸맞게 합리적으로 투표했음을 발견했다.BR 전략적 분할투표에 영향을 미치는 독립변수들을 동기와 능력으로 구분해 진행한 이어진 분석에서 사표방지나 연합보장 분할투표시 최선과 차선 정당 간의 선호도 차이가 중요한 기준으로 활용되었음을 발견했다. 또한 유권자의 정당일체감의 효과가 지지정당에 따라 다르게 나타났음도 발견했다. 거대정당 지지자들의 강한 정당일체감은 분할투표를 억제하는 효과를 발휘한데 반해, 군소정당 지지자들의 강한 일체감은 분할투표를 촉진하는 효과를 지니고 있었다. 아울러 분할투표의 능력 변수로 사용했던 준연동형 비례제에 대한 이해 정도는 무지한 분할투표와 세련된 분할투표가 혼합된 효과를 일부 지니고 있었음도 발견했다.

Confidence and Receptivity for COVID-19 Vaccines: A Rapid Systematic Review.

While COVID-19 continues raging worldwide, effective vaccines are highly anticipated. However, vaccine hesitancy is widespread. Survey results on uptake intentions vary and continue to change. This review compared trends and synthesized findings in vaccination receptivity over time across US and international polls, assessing survey design influences and evaluating context to inform policies and practices. Data sources included academic literature (PubMed, Embase, and PsycINFO following PRISMA guidelines), news and official reports published by 20 October 2020. Two researchers independently screened potential peer-reviewed articles and syndicated polls for eligibility; 126 studies and surveys were selected. Declining vaccine acceptance (from >70% in March to <50% in October) with demographic, socioeconomic, and partisan divides was observed. Perceived risk, concerns over vaccine safety and effectiveness, doctors’ recommendations, and inoculation history were common factors. Impacts of regional infection rates, gender, and personal COVID-19 experience were inconclusive. Unique COVID-19 factors included political party orientation, doubts toward expedited development/approval process, and perceived political interference. Many receptive participants preferred to wait until others have taken the vaccine; mandates could increase resistance. Survey wording and answer options showed influence on responses. To achieve herd immunity, communication campaigns are immediately needed, focusing on transparency and restoring trust in health authorities.

Battery Electric Vehicle adoption in regions without strong policies

Individual motorized transport is a major source of emissions and needs to be reduced to meet international agreements. Although alternatives to internal combustion engine vehicles are already on the market, without extensive political support, electric vehicle (EV) adoption remains low. Understanding the drivers of adoption of alternative technologies is key to develop effective measures to accelerate their diffusion. This paper presents individual consumer characteristics and home-location based spatial characteristics of current battery electric vehicle (BEV) and internal combustion engine vehicle holders, in a region free from strong EV policies. Using a generalized linear mixed-effects logistic model on this revealed preference data, we find that BEV adoption is predicted by technology affinity, high income, green party preferences, and living in one’s own house. Altogether, the study offers insights on the characteristics of early adopters of BEVs that can be valuable to policymakers, energy grid and charging infrastructure operators, as well as the automotive industry.

Choice of Law in Latin American Arbitration: Some Empirical Evidence and Reflections on the Latin American Market for Contracts

The aim of this Article is to assess the preferences of parties to Latin American international business transactions when they choose the law governing their contracts. For that purpose, the authors have conducted an empirical analysis of data that they were able to gather from arbitral institutions active in Latin America, with a focus on years 2011 and 2012. Furthermore they offer some reflections on the results and elaborate on whether they can be explained by the territorial approach of choice of law in Latin America, the importance of the United States as a trading partner for Latin American countries and the extent to which Anglo-American lawyers are present on Latin American markets.