Participatory Scenario Building Research Articles

Participatory and Spatially Explicit Assessment to Envision the Future of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change Scenarios on Selected Ecosystem Services in Southwestern Ghana

Settlement expansion and commercial agriculture affect landscape sustainability and ecosystem service provision. Integrated landscape approaches are promoted to negotiate trade-offs between competing land uses and their reconciliation. Incorporating local perceptions of landscape dynamics as basis for such negotiations is particularly relevant for sub-Saharan Africa, where most people depend on natural ecosystems for livelihoods and well-being. This study applied participatory scenario building and spatially explicit simulation to unravel perceptions of the potential impact of rubber and settlement expansion on the provision of selected ecosystem services in southwestern Ghana under a business-as-usual scenario. We collected data in workshops and expert surveys on locally relevant ecosystem services, their indicator values, and the probable land-use transitions. The data was translated into an assessment matrix and integrated into a spatially explicit modeling platform, allowing visualization and comparison of the impact on ecosystem service provision of land-use scenarios under rubber plantation and settlement expansion. The results show the capacity of current (2020) and future land-use patterns to provide locally relevant ecosystem services, indicating a decline in capacity of ecosystem service provisioning in the future compared to the 2020 land-use patterns, a threat to the benefits humans derive from ecosystems. This highlights urgent need for policies and measures to control the drivers of land-use/land-cover change. Furthermore, the results emphasize the importance of diversifying land-use/land-cover types for sustainable landscape development. The paper contributes new insights into how spatially explicit and semi-quantitative methods can make stakeholder perceptions of landscape dynamics explicit as a basis for implementing integrated landscape approaches.

Developing disruptive mobility scenarios for rural areas. Participatory mobility scenario building in a Belgian village for the year 2050

BackgroundHistorically, quantitative forecasting methods have been used in transport planning. As forecasts can be unreliable to plan for the medium- and long-term, scenario building has recently been increasingly used. However, scenario building methods often fail to take disruptions and wild cards into account, i.e., low probability but high impact events. When unaccounted for, wild card events, like the COVID-19 pandemic, lower the efficacy of scenario building in policy making, as these events may completely disturb the developed scenarios of the future.MethodsIn this paper, we develop and apply a creative and participatory methodology to develop visions and disrupted scenarios for rural mobility. Our research was carried out in the Belgian village of Oetingen, where inhabitants developed more resilient views of the future by creating disrupted mobility scenarios and a preferred mobility vision for their village for the year 2050 in a participatory scenario building exercise. Wild cards related to mobility were collected from mobility experts and inhabitants in three workshops. Inhabitants were engaged to define their mobility vision on a postcard that was distributed to all houses in the village as well as on a project website. Respondents were invited for a follow-up interview in which their preferred mobility vision was subjected to the wild cards, and participants described how these wild cards would change their preferred vision. As children tend to have more creative ideas, they were engaged via workshops at school.ResultsThis process resulted in mobility scenarios for the village for the year 2050 based on the different wild cards, as well as an overall desired vision. We found that the use of wild cards did not significantly change the scenarios when compared to the vision, although it did make the interviewees step outside of their comfort zones. We also found that the citizens did not have more original and less path-dependent ideas in developing wild cards when compared to experts. Lastly, we found that children have many outside-of-the-box suggestions when it comes to the future. Although some of their ideas can be judged as impractical by today’s standards, many ideas had an indirect implication for mobility in the village and gave insights into children’s priorities, as potential future residents of the village.

Linking multiple values of nature with future impacts: value-based participatory scenario development for sustainable landscape governance

Reaching sustainable and just futures for people and nature requires tackling complex social-ecological challenges across multiple scales, from local to global. Pathways towards such futures are largely driven by people’s decisions and actions, underpinned by multiple types of motivations and values. Thus, understanding the link between potential futures and the values underpinning them represents a key question of current sustainability research, recently embraced by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Particularly the understanding of causal chains leading from values to futures across different contexts and scales is vital to identify which sustainability pathways to collectively pursue. In this study, we build on a transdisciplinary knowledge co-creation process in an array of local case studies in protected areas in the Czechia (Central Europe). We apply the Life Framework of Values and the Three Horizons framework in an innovative value-based participatory scenario building process to explore the relationships between (1) multiple types of values, (2) actions taken by different types of stakeholders, and (3) their potential impacts on nature, nature’s contributions to people (including ecosystem services) and good quality of life. The resulting local-scale value-based pathways show the complex relationship between multiple types of values for nature and potential future trajectories. Finally, we reflect on the utility of value-based participatory scenario planning as a means to strengthen sustainable governance. We highlight that if participatory deliberation of values is to support decision-making processes, its design needs to carefully reflect local context and institutional set-up.

Investigating future ecosystem services through participatory scenario building and spatial ecological–economic modelling

Scenario analysis with integrated quantitative modelling has become a common approach to investigate possible future socio-ecological systems in sustainability research. Facing several barriers on the use of scenarios, however, a participatory scenario approach has gained wider attention in place-based environmental research communities. In this paper, we investigate future ecosystem services (i.e., food production, carbon sequestration, nutrient retention, and habitat provision) in the explorative manner in the Sado island, Japan, using a participatory scenario approach and spatial ecological–economic modelling techniques. The contributions of this paper to the existing literatures are twofold: the one is collaborative use of morphological analysis and participants’ votes for more fair and transparent scenario building, and the other is a suite of spatial modelling techniques, inter alia, land-use projections using a spatial multinomial logit model, for more robust and accurate simulations. Taking such innovative approaches and constructing the ecosystem service index reflecting local perceptions, we built distinctive six scenarios and projected future ecosystem services. As consequences, we could (1) illuminate the trade-offs between land-based ecosystem services, (2) highlight the importance of adequate mosaic structures in providing bundle of ecosystem services, and (3) visualize the spatially heterogenous impacts of alternative scenarios that imply one scenario does not fit all areas. We also discussed the interpretation of a sink service from sustainability perspectives and lessons learned from the parallel approach of participatory scenario building and quantitative modelling exercises.

Co-exploring the Water-Energy-Food Nexus: Facilitating Dialogue through Participatory Scenario Building

The ‘water-energy-food (WEF) nexus’ has become an increasingly popular way to frame the challenges associated with reconciling improvements in human wellbeing and aspirations for better lives with sustainable management of natural resources and ecosystems. Yet the nexus is complex, requiring effective engagement between expert and non-expert stakeholders in order to understand biophysical inter-linkages between resources and resource flows and social interactions between different actors in the socio-ecological system and landscape. This can be a substantial challenge due to varying levels of knowledge and understanding amongst actors with divergent, and often entrenched, interests. This paper presents insights on how participatory scenario-building processes can create space for dialogue amongst stakeholders with differing knowledge, experience, priorities and political perspectives. Drawing on completed and on-going research applying a ‘nexus toolkit’ in Ethiopia and Rwanda respectively, we contribute to a generalized conceptual framework for addressing, communicating, and assessing the water-energy-food nexus, with a particular focus on how to utilize the nexus concept in practice. We find that participatory scenario-building processes that facilitate engagement beyond technical aspects to include social, economic and political concerns provide a valuable space for discussing and negotiating development pathways that are sustainable both biophysically and socio-economically. In addition, the involvement of stakeholders throughout the project process greatly enhances the quality and legitimacy of results. Furthermore, we suggest that by building capacity amongst stakeholders to maintain a quantitative ‘nexus toolkit’, it has a better chance of informing decision-making and for supporting the development of more technically refined analyses of alternative decisions and management strategies.

Participatory Scenario-Building for Brazilian Climate Policy: The IES-Brasil Project Experience

This article reflects on experiences with IES-Brasil project to generate credible, legitimate and useful knowledge for domestic and international climate policy. It offers insight into how a participatory scenario building project was given shape in Brazil and how it sought to generate credible, legitimate and useful results. The article concludes by drawing some lessons that IES-Brasil can offer for climate policy and knowledge creation ‘post-Paris’.

Micropolitics in collective learning spaces for adaptive decision making

Abstract Recent advances on power, politics, and pathways in climate change adaptation aim to re-frame decision-making processes from development-as-usual to openings for transformational adaptation. This paper offers empirical insights regarding decision-making politics in the context of collective learning through participatory scenario building and flexible flood management and planning in the Eastern Brahmaputra Basin of Assam, India. By foregrounding intergroup and intragroup power dynamics in such collective learning spaces and how they intersect with existing micropolitics of adaptation on the ground, we examine opportunities for and limitations to challenging entrenched authority and subjectivities. Our results suggest that emancipatory agency can indeed emerge but is likely to be fluid and multifaceted. Community actors who are best positioned to resist higher-level domination may well be imbricated in oppression at home. While participatory co-learning as embraced here might open some spaces for transformation, others close down or remain shut.

Qualitative Scenario Building for Post-Carbon Cities

In defining the transition towards a post-carbon future, understanding the needs and determinants for policy priorities in different types of cities will help tailor a common roadmap that can be adopted under various socio-economic contexts. This paper provides an analysis of results collected in a participatory scenario building exercise undertaken within a research project on post-carbon urban futures (Post-Carbon Cities of Tomorrow, POCACITO). It is based on local workshops organised in nine European case study cities, which employed a three-step methodology consisting of an initial assessment, vision building and backcasting exercises. All exercises had a strong focus on the inclusion of stakeholders. Comparison of outcomes from the visions and scenarios resulting from these workshops provides insights on the drivers that determine different priorities in policy action for cities working to transition toward post-carbon futures. Results from the case study cities show similar elements in the strategies proposed by stakeholders, focusing primarily on urban projects for energy efficiency and the transition to non-fossil energy resources. However, the specific mix of strategies envisaged for each city has been influenced by local issues, such as the geographical location or the size, as well as different points of departure with regards to emission reductions and sustainability strategies already achieved.

Learning and Envisioning under Climatic Uncertainty: An African Experience

Learning about and embracing change and uncertainty are essential for responding to climate change. Creativity, critical reflection, and cogenerative inquiry can enhance adaptive capacity, or the ability to anticipate, prepare for, and respond to adverse future impacts. However, precisely how learning about change and its driving forces occurs and how experiences are combined with envisioned yet indefinite prospects of the future are poorly understood. We present two linked methodological tools—an assessment of drivers of change and participatory scenario building—used in a climate change adaptation project in Ghana and Tanzania (ALCCAR). We discuss opportunities and challenges of such iterative learning. Our findings suggest that joint exploration, diverse storylines, and deliberation help to expand community-based adaptation repertoires and to strike a balance between hopelessness and a tendency to idealize potential future realities.

Understanding future ecosystem changes in Lake Victoria basin using participatory local scenarios

AbstractUnderstanding future ecosystem changes is central to sustainable natural resource management especially when coupled with in‐depth understanding of impacts of drivers, such as governance, demographic, economic and climate variations and land use policy. This offers comprehensive information for sustainable ecosystem services provision. A foresight process of systematic and presumptive assessment of future state and ecosystem integrity of Lake Victoria basin, as participatory scenario building technique, is presented. Four scenarios have been illustrated as possible future states of the basin over the next twenty years. Using a scenario building model developed in Ventana Simulation (VENSIM®) platform, the paper presents a scenario methodology for tracking changes in lake basin ecosystem status. Plausible trends in land use change, changes in lake levels and contribution of fisheries are presented. This is part of an initial attempt to setup long‐term environmental policy planning strategies for Lake Victoria basin. The assumptions, driving forces, impacts and opportunities under each scenario depict major departure and convergence points for an integrated transboundary diagnosis and analysis of regional issues in the basin as well as strategic action planning for long‐term interventions. The findings have been presented in terms of temporal, spatial, biophysical and human well‐being dimensions. The attempts in this study can be embedded in a policy framework for basin management priority setting and may guide partnerships for environmental management.

New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in Austria

Increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources in heat and electricity production is a nationally and internationally acknowledged aim for sustainable development. In this context, the participatory development and appraisal of energy scenarios can be useful for enabling stakeholders to explore future energy options and for supporting the national policy discourse. The five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, which was developed as part of the ARTEMIS project, examines possible energy futures paths by combining (1) scenario development; (2) multi-criteria evaluation; and (3) a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. Economic, social, environmental and technological impacts as well as revealed social preferences are used for the ranking of the scenarios. Due to the paramount importance of bioenergy in Austria, special emphasis in the scenario development is put on the contribution of biomass. Two main bioenergy issues and their consideration in the ARTEMIS project are explicitly addressed in this paper: the cascadic utilisation of biomass resources and the demand for land area and land area conflicts. Overall, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied in practice and what insights policy-makers can gain from it. We also explore the methodology's limitations, especially regarding the effort required for participatory scenario building and the availability of stakeholders.