The development of coastal adaptation pathways along sandy barrier-island coasts requires an understanding of multi-decadal barrier morphodynamics in response to forcings such as sea-level rise, sediment fluxes, and storminess. Long- and cross-shore sand exchanges among barrier-system compartments (shorefaces, beaches, dunes, tidal inlets, backbarrier lagoons) and between adjacent barrier islands can play a fundamental role in barrier-system morphology and resilience to sea-level rise. We explore these dynamics through investigation of historical areal changes within the 13 largely undeveloped Virginia Barrier Islands of the United States Mid-Atlantic Coast. We pair subaerial island areas mapped from historical surveys and modern aerial and satellite imagery with representative island thicknesses determined from stratigraphic and lidar-derived elevation data to estimate volumetric changes through time. Overall, the Virginia Barrier Islands lost ~3.4% (16 × 106 m3) of their 1887 C.E. volume between 1887 and 2017 C.E. The loss from three central islands (Parramore, Hog, and Cobb)—historically characterized by rotational behavior—was 43% (79 × 106 m3). In particular, Parramore Island continuously decreased in volume over the 20th and 21st centuries. In contrast, growth of Assateague and northern Wallops islands (located at the northern, updrift end of the island chain) from 1887 to 2017 C.E. resulted in a volume increase of ~59 × 106 m3. Whereas the Virginia Barrier Islands as a whole modestly decreased in size (and thus volume) directly in response to storm impacts and accelerating relative sea-level rise since the mid-1800s, the differential behavior of islands south of Assateague suggests more regional controls on coastal geomorphic behavior. Specifically, we identify the roles of antecedent substrate, sand trapping and changing wave-refraction patterns associated with the growth of Assateague Island, and inter-island sand exchanges in response to changing updrift barrier-scale behaviors. These findings help to better understand the underlying mechanisms behind state changes of barrier islands; in particular, the mechanisms by which geomorphic change along one barrier island influences those located several to tens of kilometers downdrift. This highlights the need to consider coastal beach and sand management over long reaches, even in systems which are largely unaffected by development, nourishment, and shoreline hardening.
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