Parameters Of Stochastic Volatility Models Research Articles

Efficient Bayesian Inference for Nonlinear State Space Models With Univariate Autoregressive State Equation

Latent autoregressive processes are a popular choice to model time varying parameters. These models can be formulated as nonlinear state space models for which inference is not straightforward due to the high number of parameters. Therefore, maximum likelihood methods are often infeasible and researchers rely on alternative techniques, such as Gibbs sampling. But conventional Gibbs samplers are often tailored to specific situations and suffer from high autocorrelation among repeated draws. We present a Gibbs sampler for general nonlinear state space models with an univariate autoregressive state equation. For this we employ an interweaving strategy and elliptical slice sampling to exploit the dependence implied by the autoregressive process. Within a simulation study we demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed sampler for bivariate dynamic copula models. Further we are interested in modeling the volatility return relationship. Therefore, we use the proposed sampler to estimate the parameters of stochastic volatility models with skew Student’s t errors and the parameters of a novel bivariate dynamic mixture copula model. This model allows for dynamic asymmetric tail dependence. Comparison to relevant benchmark models, such as the DCC-GARCH or a Student’s t copula model, with respect to predictive accuracy shows the superior performance of the proposed approach. R scripts, an R package, data and additional results are provided as supplementary materials. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Maximum likelihood estimation for stochastic volatility in mean models with heavy-tailed distributions.

In this article, we introduce a likelihood-based estimation method for the stochastic volatility in mean (SVM) model with scale mixtures of normal (SMN) distributions (Abanto-Valle et al., 2012). Our estimation method is based on the fact that the powerful hidden Markov model (HMM) machinery can be applied in order to evaluate an arbitrarily accurate approximation of the likelihood of an SVM model with SMN distributions. The method is based on the proposal of Langrock et al. (2012) and makes explicit the useful link between HMMs and SVM models with SMN distributions. Likelihood-based estimation of the parameters of stochastic volatility models in general, and SVM models with SMN distributions in particular, is usually regarded as challenging as the likelihood is a high-dimensional multiple integral. However, the HMM approximation, which is very easy to implement, makes numerical maximum of the likelihood feasible and leads to simple formulae for forecast distributions, for computing appropriately defined residuals, and for decoding, i.e., estimating the volatility of the process.

McMC estimation of multiscale stochastic volatility models with applications

In this paper we propose to use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the parameters of stochastic volatility models with several factors varying at different time scales. The originality of our approach, in contrast with classical factor models is the identification of two factors driving univariate series at well-separated time scales. This is tested with simulated data as well as foreign exchange data. Furthermore, we exploit the model calibration problem of implied volatility surface by postulating a computational scheme, which consists of McMC estimation and variance reduction techniques in MC/QMC simulations for option evaluation under multi-scale stochastic volatility models. Empirical studies and its extension are discussed.

Implicit Estimation for the Stochastic Volatility Model

Efficient, accurate, and fast Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimation methods based on the Implicit approach are proposed. In this article, we introduced the notion of Implicit method for the estimation of parameters in Stochastic Volatility models. Implicit estimation offers a substantial computational advantage for learning from observations without prior knowledge and thus provides a good alternative to classical inference in Bayesian method when priors are missing. Both Implicit and Bayesian approach are illustrated using simulated data and are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on CAC40 index.

Estimation of objective and risk-neutral distributions based on moments of integrated volatility

In this paper, we present an estimation procedure which uses both option prices and high-frequency spot price feeds to estimate jointly the objective and risk-neutral parameters of stochastic volatility models. The procedure is based on a method of moments that uses analytical expressions for the moments of the integrated volatility and series expansions of option prices and implied volatilities. This results in an easily implementable and rapid estimation technique. An extensive Monte Carlo study compares various procedures and shows the efficiency of our approach. Empirical applications to the Deutsche mark–US dollar exchange rate futures and the S&P 500 index provide evidence that the method delivers results that are in line with the ones obtained in previous studies where much more involved estimation procedures were used.

Estimating volatility and model parameters of stochastic volatility models with jumps using particle filter

Despite the success of particle filter, there are two factors which cause difficulties in its implementation. The first one is the choice of importance functions commonly used in the literature which are far from being optimal. The second one is the combined state and parameter estimation problem. In a widely used Heston model on stochastic volatility in financial literature, we are able to circumvent both these problems. To reflect the most realistic situation, we also include jump in the stochastic volatility model. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the algorithms.

Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models

Bayesian methods have been efficient in estimating parameters of stochastic volatility models for analyzing financial time series. Recent advances made it possible to fit stochastic volatility models of increasing complexity, including covariates, leverage effects, jump components, and heavy-tailed distributions. However, a formal model comparison via Bayes factors remains difficult. The main objective of this article is to demonstrate that model selection is more easily performed using the deviance information criterion (DIC). It combines a Bayesian measure of fit with a measure of model complexity. We illustrate the performance of DIC in discriminating between various different stochastic volatility models using simulated data and daily returns data on the Standard & Poors (S&P) 100 index.

Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models

Bayesian methods have been efficient in estimating parameters of stochastic volatility models for analyzing financial time series. Recent advances made it possible to fit stochastic volatility models of increasing complexity, including covariates, leverage effects, jump components and heavy-tailed distributions. However, a formal model comparison via Bayes factors remains difficult. The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that model selection is more easily performed using the deviance information criterion (DIC). It combines a Bayesian measure-of-fit with a measure of model complexity. We illustrate the performance of DIC in discriminating between various different stochastic volatility models using simulated data and daily returns data on the S&P100 index.

Econometric Analysis of Realized Volatility and its Use in Estimating Stochastic Volatility Models

SummaryThe availability of intraday data on the prices of speculative assets means that we can use quadratic variation-like measures of activity in financial markets, called realized volatility, to study the stochastic properties of returns. Here, under the assumption of a rather general stochastic volatility model, we derive the moments and the asymptotic distribution of the realized volatility error—the difference between realized volatility and the discretized integrated volatility (which we call actual volatility). These properties can be used to allow us to estimate the parameters of stochastic volatility models without recourse to the use of simulation-intensive methods.