Parameter Estimation Research Articles

Mathematical modeling of hypoxia and adenosine to explore tumor escape mechanisms in DC-based immunotherapy.

Identifying and controlling tumor escape mechanisms is crucial for improving cancer treatment effectiveness. Experimental studies reveal tumor hypoxia and adenosine as significant contributors to such mechanisms. Hypoxia exacerbates adenosine levels in the tumor microenvironment. Combining inhibition of these factors with dendritic cell (DC)-based immunotherapy promises improved clinical outcomes. However, challenges include understanding dynamics, optimal vaccine dosages, and timing. Mathematical models, including agent-based, diffusion, and ordinary differential equations, address these challenges. Here, we employ these models for the first time to elucidate how hypoxia and adenosine facilitate tumor escape in DC-based immunotherapy. After parameter estimation using experimental data, we optimize vaccination protocols to minimize tumor growth. Sensitivity analysis highlights adenosine's significant impact on immunotherapy efficacy. Its suppressive role impedes treatment success, but inhibiting adenosine could enhance therapy, as suggested by the model. Our findings shed light on hypoxia and adenosine-mediated tumor escape mechanisms, informing future treatment strategies. Additionally, identifiability analysis confirms accurate parameter determination using experimental data.

Novel estimation of African swine fever transmission parameters within smallholder villages in Lao P.D.R.

African Swine Fever (ASF) disease transmission parameters are crucial for making response and control decisions when faced with an outbreak, yet they are poorly quantified for smallholder and village contexts within Southeast Asia. Whilst disease-specific factors - such as latent and infectious periods - should remain reasonably consistent, host, environmental and management factors are likely to affect the rate of disease spread. These differences are investigated using Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte-Carlo methods to provide disease parameter estimates in four naïve pig populations in villages of Lao People's Democratic Republic. The villages represent smallholder pig farmers of the Northern province of Oudomxay and the Southern province of Savannakhet, and the model utilised field mortality data to validate the transmission parameter estimates over the course of multiple model generations. The basic reproductive number between-pigs was estimated to range from 3.08 to 7.80, whilst the latent and infectious periods were consistent with those published in the literature for similar genotypes in the region (4.72 to 6.19days and 2.63 to 5.50days, respectively). These findings demonstrate that smallholder village pigs interact similarly to commercial pigs, however the spread of disease may occur slightly slower than in commercial study groups. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated that despite diversity across the study groups, the disease behaved in a consistent manner. This data can be used in disease control programs or for future modelling of ASF in smallholder contexts.

The Extended Bregman Divergence and Parametric Estimation in Continuous Models

The Extended Bregman Divergence and Parametric Estimation in Continuous Models

Improving the Estimation of Structural Parameters of a Mixed Conifer–Broadleaf Forest Using Structural, Textural, and Spectral Metrics Derived from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Red Green Blue (RGB) Imagery

Improving the Estimation of Structural Parameters of a Mixed Conifer–Broadleaf Forest Using Structural, Textural, and Spectral Metrics Derived from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Red Green Blue (RGB) Imagery

Evaluating the utility of multi-gene, multi-disease population-based panel testing accounting for uncertainty in penetrance estimates.

Panel germline testing allows for the efficient detection of deleterious variants for multiple conditions, but the benefits and harms of identifying these variants are not always well understood. We present a multi-gene, multi-disease aggregate utility formula that allows the user to consider adding or removing each gene in a panel based on variant frequency, estimated penetrances, and subjective disutilities for testing positive but not developing the disease and testing negative but developing the disease. We provide credible intervals for utility that reflect uncertainty in penetrance estimates. Rare, highly penetrant deleterious variants tend to contribute positive net utilities for a wide variety of user-specified disutilities, even when accounting for parameter estimation uncertainty. However, the clinical utility of deleterious variants with moderate, uncertain penetrance depends more on assumed disutilities. The decision to include a gene on a panel depends on variant frequency, penetrance, and subjective utilities and should account for uncertainties around these factors.

Estimation of planned and unplanned missing individual scores in longitudinal designs using continuous-time state-space models.

Latent change score (LCS) models within a continuous-time state-space modeling framework provide a convenient statistical approach for analyzing developmental data. In this study, we evaluate the robustness of such an approach in the context of accelerated longitudinal designs (ALDs). ALDs are especially interesting because they imply a very high rate of planned data missingness. Additionally, most longitudinal studies present unexpected participant attrition leading to unplanned missing data. Therefore, in ALDs, both sources of data missingness are combined. Previous research has shown that ALDs for developmental research allow recovering the population generating process. However, it is unknown how participant attrition impacts the model estimates. We have three goals: (a) to evaluate the robustness of the group-level parameter estimates in scenarios with empirically plausible unplanned data missingness; (b) to evaluate the performance of Kalman scores (KS) imputations for individual data points that were expected but unobserved; and (c) to evaluate the performance of KS imputations for individual data points that were outside the age ranged observed for each case (i.e., to estimate the individual trajectories for the complete age range under study). In general, results showed lack of bias in the simulated conditions. The variability of the estimates increased with lower sample sizes and higher missingness severity. Similarly, we found very accurate estimates of individual scores for both planned and unplanned missing data points. These results are very important for applied practitioners in terms of forecasting and making individual-level decisions. R code is provided to facilitate its implementation by applied researchers. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Multiparameter critical quantum metrology with impurity probes

Quantum systems can be used as probes in the context of metrology for enhanced parameter estimation. In particular, the delicacy of critical systems to perturbations can make them ideal sensors. Arguably the simplest realistic probe system is a spin- 12 impurity, which can be manipulated and measured in-situ when embedded in a fermionic environment. Although entanglement between a single impurity probe and its environment produces nontrivial many-body effects, criticality cannot be leveraged for sensing. Here we introduce instead the two-impurity Kondo model as a novel paradigm for critical quantum metrology, and examine the multiparameter estimation scenario at finite temperature. We explore the full metrological phase diagram numerically and obtain exact analytic results near criticality. Enhanced sensitivity to the inter-impurity coupling driving a second-order phase transition is evidenced by diverging quantum Fisher information (QFI) and quantum signal-to-noise ratio (QSNR). However, with uncertainty in both coupling strength and temperature, the multiparameter QFI matrix becomes singular—even though the parameters to be estimated are independent—resulting in vanishing QSNRs. We demonstrate that by applying a known control field, the singularity can be removed and measurement sensitivity restored. For general systems, we show that the degradation in the QSNR due to uncertainties in another parameter is controlled by the degree of correlation between the unknown parameters.

A New Modification of the Weibull Distribution: Model, Theory, and Analyzing Engineering Data Sets

Symmetrical as well as asymmetrical statistical models play a prominent role in describing and predicting the real-world phenomena of nature. Among other fields, these models are very useful for modeling data in the sector of civil engineering. Due to the applicability of the statistical models in civil engineering and other related sectors, this paper offers a statistical methodology to improve the distributional flexibility of traditional models. The suggested method/approach is called the extended-X family of distributions. The proposed method has the ability to generate symmetrical and asymmetrical probability distributions. Based on the extended-X family approach, an updated version of the Weibull model, namely, the extended Weibull model, is studied. The proposed model is very flexible and has the ability to capture the symmetrical and asymmetrical shapes of its density function. For the extended-X method, the estimation of parameters, a simulation study, and some mathematical properties are derived. Finally, the practical illustration/usefulness of the suggested model is shown by analyzing two data sets taken from the field of engineering. Both data sets represent the fracture toughness of alumina (Al2O3).

Artificial neural networks for model identification and parameter estimation in computational cognitive models.

Computational cognitive models have been used extensively to formalize cognitive processes. Model parameters offer a simple way to quantify individual differences in how humans process information. Similarly, model comparison allows researchers to identify which theories, embedded in different models, provide the best accounts of the data. Cognitive modeling uses statistical tools to quantitatively relate models to data that often rely on computing/estimating the likelihood of the data under the model. However, this likelihood is computationally intractable for a substantial number of models. These relevant models may embody reasonable theories of cognition, but are often under-explored due to the limited range of tools available to relate them to data. We contribute to filling this gap in a simple way using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to map data directly onto model identity and parameters, bypassing the likelihood estimation. We test our instantiation of an ANN as a cognitive model fitting tool on classes of cognitive models with strong inter-trial dependencies (such as reinforcement learning models), which offer unique challenges to most methods. We show that we can adequately perform both parameter estimation and model identification using our ANN approach, including for models that cannot be fit using traditional likelihood-based methods. We further discuss our work in the context of the ongoing research leveraging simulation-based approaches to parameter estimation and model identification, and how these approaches broaden the class of cognitive models researchers can quantitatively investigate.

On a matrix‐valued autoregressive model

Many data sets in biology, medicine, and other biostatistical areas deal with matrix‐valued time series. The case of a single univariate time series is very well developed in the literature; and single multi‐variate series (i.e., vector time series) though less well studied have also been developed. A class of matrix time series models is introduced for dealing with situations where there are multiple sets of multi‐variate time series data. Explicit expressions for a matrix autoregressive model along with its cross‐autocorrelation functions are derived. Stationarity conditions are also provided. Least squares estimators and maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters and their asymptotic properties are derived. Results are illustrated through simulation studies and a real data application.

PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF UPPER MINERAL HORIZONS OF CUTTING AREA (MIDDLE TAIGA, KOMI REPUBLIC)

Changes in the physical properties of podzolic soils were analysed three years after a cutting of coniferous-deciduous plantings in the territory of the middle taiga of the Komi Republic with three- and ten-fold forwarder passes, as well as after leveling deep ruts formed after ten passes. The influence of different number of passes on soil density, filtration coefficient, penetration resistance is shown. An assumption about various mechanisms of soil change has been made: three forwarder passes lead to compression, ten - to compression and turbation, which was confirmed by indications of soil density and hardness. It was revealed that compression leads to an increase in density by 0.15 g·cm-3 and penetration resistance by 25%. Meanwhile, filtration rate did not change. Ten passes lead to turbation, which levels the possible compaction due to an introduction of forest litter into the upper mineral soil horizons. Moreover, hardness values decreased by 2-3 times and water permeability decreased from 70 to 1 cm·day-1. It was revealed that leveling deep ruts causes a noticeable decrease in soil density after three years, including in comparison with the undisturbed soil. Furthermore, filtration rate increases several times. Penetration resistance is also increased. An estimation of the water retention curve approximation parameters by the van Genuchten equation made it possible to identify changes in soil of ruts compared to the a mechanically undisturbed site. A decrease in the range of mobile moisture was noted as a result of compaction after heavy equipment usage, leading to moisture stagnation in ruts.

Structural and practical identifiability of contrast transport models for DCE-MRI.

Contrast transport models are widely used to quantify blood flow and transport in dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging. These models analyze the time course of the contrast agent concentration, providing diagnostic and prognostic value for many biological systems. Thus, ensuring accuracy and repeatability of the model parameter estimation is a fundamental concern. In this work, we analyze the structural and practical identifiability of a class of nested compartment models pervasively used in analysis of MRI data. We combine artificial and real data to study the role of noise in model parameter estimation. We observe that although all the models are structurally identifiable, practical identifiability strongly depends on the data characteristics. We analyze the impact of increasing data noise on parameter identifiability and show how the latter can be recovered with increased data quality. To complete the analysis, we show that the results do not depend on specific tissue characteristics or the type of enhancement patterns of contrast agent signal.

Connecting process models to response times through Bayesian hierarchical regression analysis.

Process models specify a series of mental operations necessary to complete a task. We demonstrate how to use process models to analyze response-time data and obtain parameter estimates that have a clear psychological interpretation. A prerequisite for our analysis is a process model that generates a count of elementary information processing steps (EIP steps) for each trial of an experiment. We can estimate the duration of an EIP step by assuming that every EIP step is of random duration, modeled as draws from a gamma distribution. A natural effect of summing several random EIP steps is that the expected spread of the overall response time increases with a higher EIP step count. With modern probabilistic programming tools, it becomes relatively easy to fit Bayesian hierarchical models to data and thus estimate the duration of a step for each individual participant. We present two examples in this paper: The first example is children's performance on simple addition tasks, where the response time is often well predicted by the smaller of the two addends. The second example is response times in a Sudoku task. Here, the process model contains some random decisions and the EIP step count thus becomes latent. We show how our EIP regression model can be extended to such a case. We believe this approach can be used to bridge the gap between classical cognitive modeling and statistical inference and will be easily applicable to many use cases.

A control-oriented LPV model of large-scale offshore wind turbines for deloading operation

ABSTRACT This article develops a new control-oriented linear parameter varying (LPV) model, which is a linear state-space model with varying parameters aimed at efficiently representing large-scale offshore wind turbines (LOWTs). Firstly, the LPV model is constructed by the mechanism analysis of a 15-MW direct-drive permanent magnet wind turbine. Subseuently, based on the operational data from FAST, the parameters with unknown values in the LPV model are determined by gain scheduling and parameter estimation. Furthermore, a deloading operation for the active output power regulation of LOWTs is proposed based on coordinating the rotor over-speed control (ROC) and the pitch angle control (PAC).

Multivariate state and parameter estimation with data assimilation applied to sea-ice models using a Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology

Abstract. In this study, we investigate the fully multivariate state and parameter estimation through idealised simulations of a dynamics-only model that uses the novel Maxwell elasto-brittle (MEB) sea-ice rheology and in which we estimate not only the sea-ice concentration, thickness and velocity, but also its level of damage, internal stress and cohesion. Specifically, we estimate the air drag coefficient and the so-called damage parameter of the MEB model. Mimicking the realistic observation network with different combinations of observations, we demonstrate that various issues can potentially arise in a complex sea-ice model, especially in instances for which the external forcing dominates the model forecast error growth. Even though further investigation will be needed using an operational (a coupled dynamics–thermodynamics) sea-ice model, we show that, with the current observation network, it is possible to improve both the observed and the unobserved model state forecast and parameter accuracy.

On the Maximum Likelihood Estimators’ Uniqueness and Existence for Two Unitary Distributions: Analytically and Graphically, with Application

Unit distributions, exhibiting inherent symmetrical properties, have been extensively studied across various fields. A significant challenge in these studies, particularly evident in parameter estimations, is the existence and uniqueness of estimators. Often, it is challenging to demonstrate the existence of a unique estimator. The major issue with maximum likelihood and other estimator-finding methods that use iterative methods is that they need an initial value to reach the solution. This dependency on initial values can lead to local extremes that fail to represent the global extremities, highlighting a lack of symmetry in solution robustness. This study applies a very simple, and unique, estimation method for unit Weibull and unit Burr XII distributions that both attain the global maximum value. Therefore, we can conclude that the findings from the obtained propositions demonstrate that both the maximum likelihood and graphical methods are symmetrically similar. In addition, three real-world data applications are made to show that the method works efficiently.

Open-Circuit Voltage Variation in LiCoO2 Battery Cycled in Different States of Charge Regions

Open-Circuit Voltage Variation in LiCoO2 Battery Cycled in Different States of Charge Regions

Estimation of adaptability parameters of winter common wheat samples at different sowing dates in the forest-steppe of Western Siberia

Estimation of adaptability parameters of winter common wheat samples at different sowing dates in the forest-steppe of Western Siberia

Development and application of the Meal and Snack Assessment (MESA) quality scale for children and adolescents using item response theory

BackgroundMeals differ in terms of food items and nutritional quality. The aim of the present study was to propose a scale to measure the meals quality of schoolchildren according to food processing degree, perform a preliminary evaluation of the scale's validity and reliability and apply the scale to a representative sample of schoolchildren in a city in southern Brazil.MethodsA methodological study based on the generalized graded unfolding model (GGUM) of item response theory (IRT) with analysis of secondary data was carried out in 6,399 schoolchildren of 6-15y-old attending 2nd to 5th grades of public elementary schools in Florianópolis, Brazil, in 2013–2015 who answered the validated Food Intake and Physical Activities of Schoolchildren (WebCAAFE) questionnaire. Meal quality was the latent trait. The steps for the development of the scale included: latent trait definition; item generation; dimensionality analysis; estimation of item parameters; scale levels definition; assessment of validity and reliability; and assessment of the meal quality of a subsample of schoolchildren aged 7 to 12 years (n = 6,372).ResultsEleven out of eighteen items had adequate parameters, without differential item functioning for sex or age. Meal quality was categorized into three levels: healthy, mixed, and unhealthy. Higher scores indicate a greater prevalence of ultra-processed foods in daily meals. Most schoolchildren had mixed (40.6%) and unhealthy (41%) meal patterns.ConclusionsIRT analysis allowed the development of the scale, which measures the quality of meals and snacks based on the degree of food processing. At all snack times, there was a higher frequency of ultra-processed foods consumption, therefore foods consumed as snacks are a potential focus for nutritional interventions.

Three methods for determining the respiratory waves from ECG (Part II)

Three methods for determining the respiratory waves from ECG (Part II)