Parallel Shift Research Articles

Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policies to Maximise Non-Parallel Risk Premia in Sovereign Bond Markets

In this paper, we analysed several emerging market (EM) and developed market (DM) sovereign yield curves to identify the proportion of parallel and non-parallel shifts over time. We found that non-parallel shifts are more prevalent in EM due to higher political and economic risks. Key drivers include systemic risk events like wars, debt distress, and pandemics. By backtesting a long butterfly strategy to extract non-parallel risk premia from June 2007 to March 2024, we observed that steeper slopes and greater curvature result in higher returns. We also quantified monetary and fiscal regimes to determine what types of policies are required to extract non-parallel risk premia from these sovereign yield curves. Our research suggests that countries with opposing monetary and fiscal policies possess higher return opportunities whilst countries with complementing policies require tactical butterfly strategies to optimise returns.

The natural gas industry, the Republican Party, and state preemption of local building decarbonization

Societal decarbonization likely requires changes to building standards encouraging electrification, partly through restricting connections to legacy utilities such as natural gas. Yet while some municipalities have taken action, an important parallel shift undermines it: more than half of U.S. states (covering 47% of the population) have, since 2020, passed state-level laws preempting municipalities from restricting utilities. We investigate the timing, content, and partisan support of these bills, examining similarity in text use across them using a plagiarism-detection tool. States passing preemption were not only more Republican but more ideologically conservative, typically featuring less professionalized state legislatures. We also examine qualitative evidence of the natural gas industry’s lobbying, showing that industry groups claimed influence over key bills (supported largely by Republican legislators). We consider the broader implications of these findings for supply-side decarbonization in a context of climate federalism under significant influence by fossil fuel industries and allied policymakers.

Structural and electrical characterization of phase evolution in epitaxial Gd2O3 due to anneal temperature for silicon on insulator application

In this work, we understand the post-deposition anneal temperature effects on structural and electrical (leakage current and trap density) properties of epitaxial Gd2O3 film grown on Si (111) substrate using a cost-effective and High-Volume Manufacturing capable radio frequency sputtering method. It is found that the Rapid Thermal Annealing (RTA) at an optimum temperature of 850 °C enhances the crystallinity of the cubic phase in film. However, at higher RTA temperatures (>900 °C to 1050 °C), Si out-diffusion in Gd2O3 film is manifested as the reason for phase evolution towards the amorphous phase. The electrical characterization shows the film's low leakage current density of 100 nA/cm2. Moreover, increased breakdown voltage and field are observed with increasing RTA temperature. The frequency-dependent Capacitance-Voltage analysis shows a parallel shift accompanied by a kink at a lower frequency, indicating the presence of interface traps (Dit) with a range of time constants. After the forming gas annealing, a significant reduction in Dit is observed. The low leakage current density, low Dit and high crystallinity make Gd2O3 a promising candidate as a buried oxide in Silicon on Insulator MOSFETs.

Ecological shifts underlie parallels between ontogenetic and evolutionary allometries in parrotfishes.

During ontogeny, animals often undergo significant shape and size changes, coinciding with ecological shifts. This is evident in parrotfishes (Eupercaria: Labridae), which experience notable ecological shifts during development, transitioning from carnivorous diets as larvae and juveniles to herbivorous and omnivorous diets as adults, using robust beaks and skulls for feeding on coral skeletons and other hard substrates. These ontogenetic shifts mirror their evolutionary history, as parrotfishes are known to have evolved from carnivorous wrasse ancestors. Parallel shifts at ontogenetic and phylogenetic levels may have resulted in similar evolutionary and ontogenetic allometric trajectories within parrotfishes. To test this hypothesis, using micro-computed tomography (μCT) scanning and three-dimensional geometric morphometrics, we analyse the effects of size on the skull shape of the striped parrotfish Scarus iseri and compare its ontogenetic allometry to the evolutionary allometries of 57 parrotfishes and 162 non-parrotfish wrasses. The young S. iseri have skull shapes resembling non-parrotfish wrasses and grow towards typical adult parrotfish forms as they mature. There was a significant relationship between size and skull shapes and strong evidence for parallel ontogenetic and evolutionary slopes in parrotfishes. Our findings suggest that morphological changes associated with the ecological shift characterizing interspecific parrotfish evolution are conserved in their intraspecific ontogenies.

Catalytic Mechanism of Formate Dehydrogenase: Does Rotation of Formate Provide the Impetus for Surmounting the Activation Energy Barrier?

AbstractFormate oxidation by Candida boidinii formate dehydrogenase was recently subjected to QM/MM MD simulations (Q. Guo et al., Biochemistry 55, 2016, 2760–2771). Inspection of snapshots from the reported umbrella sampling of the reactants state region provided two interesting observations. Firstly, an ester bond between formate and nicotinamide spontaneously formed and subsequently dissociated. Such an ester adduct was previously predicted to form with negligible energy barrier in gas phase but was so far not reported in QM/MM MD simulations. Secondly, two snapshots were identified as possible near‐attack conformations (NACs) from which the transition state (TS) can be reached by unhindered rotation of formate about its O─O axis. The NACs differ from each other in the direction of rotation required to attain TS. Calculation of natural orbitals for chemical valence channels indicated genesis of the new C─H bond already at the NAC stage. Both NACs feature a nonlinear C(formate)–H(formate)–C(nicotinamide) angle, approaching linearity only in the TS. We believe that due to the particular conception of the active site which profits from the unique triangular shape of the substrate, the formate ion can reach the TS more easily through this rotational movement than through parallel shift along the C─H vector, as previously assumed.

Distribution of euptyctimous mite Phthiracarus longulus (Acari: Oribatida) under future climate change in the Palearctic

The aim of this paper is to prepare, describe and discuss the models of the current and future distribution of Phthiracarus longulus (Koch, 1841) (Acari: Oribatida: Euptyctima), the oribatid mite species widely distributed within the Palearctic. We used the maximum entropy (MAXENT) method to predict its current and future (until the year 2100) distribution based on macroclimatic bio-variables. To our best knowledge, this is the first-ever prediction of distribution in mite species using environmental niche modelling. The main thermal variables that shape the current distribution of P. longulus are the temperature annual range, mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the annual mean temperature, while for precipitation variables the most important is precipitation of the driest quarter. Regardless of the climatic change scenario (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) our models show generally the northward shift of species range, and in Southern Europe the loss of most habitats with parallel upslope shift. According to our current model, the most of suitable habitats for P. longulus are located in the European part of Palearctic. In general, the species range is mostly affected in Europe. The most stable areas of P. longulus distribution were the Jutland with surrounding southern coasts of Scandinavia, islands of the Danish Straits and the region of Trondheim Fjord.

Recurrent evolution of adhesive defence systems in amphibians by parallel shifts in gene expression

Natural selection can drive organisms to strikingly similar adaptive solutions, but the underlying molecular mechanisms often remain unknown. Several amphibians have independently evolved highly adhesive skin secretions (glues) that support a highly effective antipredator defence mechanism. Here we demonstrate that the glue of the Madagascan tomato frog, Dyscophus guineti, relies on two interacting proteins: a highly derived member of a widespread glycoprotein family and a galectin. Identification of homologous proteins in other amphibians reveals that these proteins attained a function in skin long before glues evolved. Yet, major elevations in their expression, besides structural changes in the glycoprotein (increasing its structural disorder and glycosylation), caused the independent rise of glues in at least two frog lineages. Besides providing a model for the chemical functioning of animal adhesive secretions, our findings highlight how recruiting ancient molecular templates may facilitate the recurrent evolution of functional innovations.

Across two continents: The genomic basis of environmental adaptation in house mice (Mus musculus domesticus) from the Americas.

Replicated clines across environmental gradients can be strong evidence of adaptation. House mice (Mus musculus domesticus) were introduced to the Americas by European colonizers and are now widely distributed from Tierra del Fuego to Alaska. Multiple aspects of climate, such as temperature, vary predictably across latitude in the Americas. Past studies of North American populations across latitudinal gradients provided evidence of environmental adaptation in traits related to body size, metabolism, and behavior and identified candidate genes using selection scans. Here, we investigate genomic signals of environmental adaptation on a second continent, South America, and ask whether there is evidence of parallel adaptation across multiple latitudinal transects in the Americas. We first identified loci across the genome showing signatures of selection related to climatic variation in mice sampled across a latitudinal transect in South America, accounting for neutral population structure. Consistent with previous results, most candidate SNPs were in putatively regulatory regions. Genes that contained the most extreme outliers relate to traits such as body weight or size, metabolism, immunity, fat, eye function, and the cardiovascular system. We then compared these results with the results of analyses of published data from two transects in North America. While most candidate genes were unique to individual transects, we found significant overlap among candidate genes identified independently in the three transects. These genes are diverse, with functions relating to metabolism, immunity, cardiac function, and circadian rhythm, among others. We also found parallel shifts in allele frequency in candidate genes across latitudinal gradients. Finally, combining data from all three transects, we identified several genes associated with variation in body weight. Overall, our results provide strong evidence of shared responses to selection and identify genes that likely underlie recent environmental adaptation in house mice across North and South America.

Efficacy of ultrasound-guided classical versus parasacral parallel shift technique of sacral plexus block for lower limb surgeries - A randomised controlled trial.

Ultrasound-guided sacral plexus block has been used for anaesthesia and analgesia in lower limb surgeries. This study aimed to compare the block performance characteristics after ultrasound-guided (USG) sacral plexus nerve block (SNB) using the parasacral parallel shift (PSPS) approach versus the classical approach in patients undergoing orthopaedic below-knee limb surgeries. In this randomised study, 144 adult patients were randomised to receive USG SNB either by the classical approach (Group C) or the PSPS approach (Group P). A fixed dose of 20 ml of 0.5% ropivacaine was administered. Patients also received USG femoral nerve block with 10 ml of 0.5% ropivacaine. The primary outcome was the scanning time between the two groups. Secondary outcomes were the needling time, sensory and motor block onset and postoperative analgesic characteristics between the two groups. A P value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. The needling time and the scanning time were significantly lesser in Group P than in Group C (P < 0.05). Complete sensory and motor nerve blockade of the sciatic nerve was significantly higher in Group P (P = 0.029). Block performance time, time for sensory block and time for motor block were significantly less in Group P compared to Group C (P < 0.001). The postoperative analgesic characteristics were comparable between the two groups. The sacral plexus block with ultrasound-guided parasacral parallel shift technique had a lower block performance time with lesser needling and scanning time than the classical approach.

Exploiting non-parallel risk premia in the South African sovereign bond market

Background: This study focuses on diversifying fixed income attribution beyond yield and duration by identifying new risk premia applicable to various investment strategies.Aim: To identify cross-sectional bond risk factors in the South African sovereign bond market, capitalising on non-parallel shifts during high-risk macroeconomic events, developing a strategy to extract persistent alpha from higher order interest rate risks and disproving the strong efficient market hypothesis.Setting: This study finds that during high-risk macro events, non-parallel shifts increase in frequency. Empirical evidence suggests that post the 2008 financial crisis, there have been increased occurrences of risk-on/off events and researchers believe high risk macro events will increase in prominence. As such, most active US fixed income managers have reduced duration risk (from parallel shifts) in favour of alternative risk premia.Method: This study exploits slope and curvature risks, by utilising a butterfly strategy. Ten bond risk factors are back-tested and analysed during interest rate cycles, curve scenarios and risk-off periods from 1998 to 2023.Results: The top-ranked strategies displayed strong and persistent outperformance over the bottom-ranked strategies for most of the bond factors especially during risk-on episodes. The Bond All-Factor Rank demonstrated improved diversification by balancing upside and downside risks. Trade costs are an important factor that requires pragmatic management.Conclusion: Geopolitical risks are increasing in frequency and developing a strategy to exploit non-parallel risk premia is an attractive proposition.Contribution: This study identified new bond risk factors beyond the conventional spread factor to extract non-parallel risk premia.

Scattered and transmitted light as surrogates for activated carbon residual in advanced wastewater treatment processes: Investigating the influence of particle size

The use of powdered activated carbon (PAC) is a common process in advanced wastewater treatment to remove micropollutants. Retention and separation of PAC is essential as PAC loaded with micropollutants should not be released into the environment. Determining the activated carbon (AC) residual in the effluent poses a challenge, as there is currently no on-line measurement method. In this study, the correlation between turbidity, measured by scattered light, and absorption at wavelength of 550 nm (Absorption550 nm), measured by transmitted light, was investigated in relation to the AC residue. Linear correlations for turbidity (R2 = 0.95) and Absorption550 nm (R2 = 1.00) to AC concentrations were observed in both laboratory and full-scale experiments in a pilot plant where superfine PAC was added prior to Pile Cloth Media Filtration (PCMF). Decreasing the particle size (d50) while maintaining the same AC concentration leads to increased turbidity: Therefore, a fourfold reduction in d50 results in a 2- to 3-fold increase in turbidity, whereas a 30-fold reduction in d50 leads to a 6-to 8-fold increase. Furthermore, the original wastewater turbidity led to a parallel shift in the linear correlation between turbidity and AC. Coagulant doses of up to 400 mg Me3+/g AC resulted in a 50% reduction in turbidity. However, higher concentrations from 400 to 1,000 mg Me3+/g AC resulted in increased turbidity with only a 30% reduction compared to the initial turbidity. The study also highlights the significance of AC particle size in optical measurements, impacting result accuracy.

Pınar BEDİRHANOGLU, Çağlar DÖLEK, Funda HÜLAGÜ and Özlem KAYGUSUZ (Eds.), Turkey’s New State in the Making: Transformations in Legality, Economy, and Coercion (London, Bloomsbury Publishing, 2020)

Turkey’s political history has seen recurring shifts between democratic ideals and authoritarian tendencies, notably during the two decades of the Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) rule. This transition marked a departure from a relatively democratic façade that emerged in response to the European Union (EU) accession process towards a more authoritarian regime characterized by increased government control and curtailment of civil liberties. It is a shift accentuated after the 2013 Gezi protests which culminated in a significant regime change in 2018. This transformation was marked by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of power through constitutional amendments, leading to the transition from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential system. To comprehend this transformation, it is imperative to examine the interplay between economic dynamics and the state within the neo-liberal capitalist system, aligning with Poulantzas’ observations on global trends. It can be argued that the accumulation and state crises, exacerbated by the 2008 global economic crisis, have contributed to Turkey’s authoritarian shift in parallel with global developments.

Does urbanisation lead to parallel demographic shifts across the world in a cosmopolitan plant?

Urbanisation is occurring globally, leading to dramatic environmental changes that are altering the ecology and evolution of species. In particular, the expansion of human infrastructure and the loss and fragmentation of natural habitats in cities is predicted to increase genetic drift and reduce gene flow by reducing the size and connectivity of populations. Alternatively, the 'urban facilitation model' suggests that some species will have greater gene flow into and within cities leading to higher diversity and lower differentiation in urban populations. These alternative hypotheses have not been contrasted across multiple cities. Here, we used the genomic data from the GLobal Urban Evolution project (GLUE), to study the effects of urbanisation on non-adaptive evolutionary processes of white clover (Trifolium repens) at a global scale. We found that white clover populations presented high genetic diversity and no evidence of reduced Ne linked to urbanisation. On the contrary, we found that urban populations were less likely to experience a recent decrease in effective population size than rural ones. In addition, we found little genetic structure among populations both globally and between urban and rural populations, which showed extensive gene flow between habitats. Interestingly, white clover displayed overall higher gene flow within urban areas than within rural habitats. Our study provides the largest comprehensive test of the demographic effects of urbanisation. Our results contrast with the common perception that heavily altered and fragmented urban environments will reduce the effective population size and genetic diversity of populations and contribute to their isolation.

Observations on Valence‐Band Electronic Structure and Surface States of Bulk Insulators Based on Fast Stabilization Process of Sample Charging in UPS

AbstractThe valence‐band electronic structure is one of the most basic properties of materials and ultraviolet photoelectron spectroscopy (UPS) is the most commonly used technique for its measurement. To obtain credible UPS spectra on insulator surfaces, eliminating the charging effects at the surfaces is essential but is very difficult. Here, a reliable measurement for the valence‐band structure of bulk insulators is shown. It has been observed that, during UPS measurements without any charge compensation, the charging on irradiated insulator surfaces reaches its steady state very quickly and the fluctuation of the charging‐induced surface potential is very small. Therefore, the whole UPS spectrum undergoes just a parallel shift and can be calibrated by comparison with the corresponding X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) spectrum even though XPS often has a poorer resolution than UPS. From the calibrated valence‐band spectra, it is found that noticeable electronic energy levels (i.e., the “surface states”) exist in the bandgap, and based on the density of states (DOS) calculations, the surface states are attributed to the truncation of the bulk periodic structure at the surfaces. This work is anticipated to provide a way to obtain the valence band structure and the surface states of bulk insulators which play crucial roles in many physical processes.

Extreme drought triggers parallel shifts in wood anatomical and physiological traits in upper treeline of the Mediterranean Andes

BackgroundTreeline ecotones of Mediterranean ecoregions have been affected by the increasing intensity and severity of droughts. Even though the effect of droughts on forest dynamics has been widely documented, knowledge is relatively scarce of how extreme climate episodes affect the hydraulic structure and, therefore, the physiology of woody plants. The Mediterranean Andes have experienced an uninterrupted period of drought since 2010, including an extremely dry year in 2019 with approximately 80% rainfall deficit. Here, we investigated shifts in wood anatomical and physiological traits of Kageneckia angustifolia, an endemic treeline species, in response to this drought period.MethodsWe evaluated the xylem plasticity of three K. angustifolia populations across their natural distribution (31–35° SL) based on anatomical (vessel structure and distribution) and physiological (intrinsic water-use efficiency) variables in the tree rings. We focused on the period 2000–2020 that corresponds to before the megadrought (2000–2007), (ii) megadrought (2008–2018) and (iii) hyperdrought (2019–2020). The variables were annualized and analyzed by linear mixed-effects models.ResultsOur results provide insights to the anatomical and physiological mechanisms underlying the resilience of treeline forests to persistent droughts in central Chile. We found that the extreme drought in 2019–2020 triggered shifts in vessel size and frequency that increased hydraulic safety. These significant shifts in vessel traits occurred in parallel with a decrease in pit aperture area and an increase in water-use efficiency, further increasing the resilience of K. angustifolia to extreme drought stress.ConclusionsOur results revealed coordinated shifts in vessel size and frequency and water-use efficiency in response to the megadrought, thereby reducing vulnerability to hydraulic failure. The apparent resilience of K. angustifolia to extreme droughts suggests that this adaptation to drought stress may increase its ability to tolerate novel climatic conditions of treeline environments of the Mediterranean Andes, although it is not clear whether these adaptations will be sufficient to persist in scenarios that predict intensification of climate stress. Finally, our results provide empirical evidence that integrating wood anatomical and physiological traits facilitates the understanding of resilience mechanisms that treeline forests develop in the face of increasing drought stress.

100 ancient genomes show repeated population turnovers in Neolithic Denmark

Major migration events in Holocene Eurasia have been characterized genetically at broad regional scales1–4. However, insights into the population dynamics in the contact zones are hampered by a lack of ancient genomic data sampled at high spatiotemporal resolution5–7. Here, to address this, we analysed shotgun-sequenced genomes from 100 skeletons spanning 7,300 years of the Mesolithic period, Neolithic period and Early Bronze Age in Denmark and integrated these with proxies for diet (13C and 15N content), mobility (87Sr/86Sr ratio) and vegetation cover (pollen). We observe that Danish Mesolithic individuals of the Maglemose, Kongemose and Ertebølle cultures form a distinct genetic cluster related to other Western European hunter-gatherers. Despite shifts in material culture they displayed genetic homogeneity from around 10,500 to 5,900 calibrated years before present, when Neolithic farmers with Anatolian-derived ancestry arrived. Although the Neolithic transition was delayed by more than a millennium relative to Central Europe, it was very abrupt and resulted in a population turnover with limited genetic contribution from local hunter-gatherers. The succeeding Neolithic population, associated with the Funnel Beaker culture, persisted for only about 1,000 years before immigrants with eastern Steppe-derived ancestry arrived. This second and equally rapid population replacement gave rise to the Single Grave culture with an ancestry profile more similar to present-day Danes. In our multiproxy dataset, these major demographic events are manifested as parallel shifts in genotype, phenotype, diet and land use.

Influence of Fractional Inspired Oxygen Tension on Lung Perfusion Distribution, Regional Ventilation, and Lung Volume during Mechanical Ventilation of Supine Healthy Swine.

Lower fractional inspired oxygen tension (Fio2) during general anesthesia can reduce lung atelectasis. The objectives are to evaluate the effect of two Fio2 (0.4 and 1) during low positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) ventilation over lung perfusion distribution, volume, and regional ventilation. These variables were evaluated at two PEEP levels and unilateral lung atelectasis. In this exploratory study, 10 healthy female piglets (32.3 ± 3.4 kg) underwent mechanical ventilation in two atelectasis models: (1) bilateral gravitational atelectasis (n = 6), induced by changes in PEEP and Fio2 in three combinations: high PEEP with low Fio2 (Fio2 = 0.4), zero PEEP (PEEP0) with low Fio2 (Fio2 = 0.4), and PEEP0 with high Fio2 (Fio2 = 1); and (2) unilateral atelectasis (n = 6), induced by left bronchial occlusion, with the left lung aerated (Fio2 = 0.21) and low aerated (Fio2 = 1; n = 5 for this step). Measurements were conducted after 10 min in each step, encompassing assessment of respiratory mechanics, oxygenation, and hemodynamics; lung ventilation and perfusion by electrical impedance tomography; and lung aeration and perfusion by computed tomography. During bilateral gravitational atelectasis, PEEP reduction increased atelectasis in dorsal regions, decreased respiratory compliance, and distributed lung ventilation to ventral regions with a parallel shift of perfusion to the same areas. With PEEP0, there were no differences between low and high Fio2 in respiratory compliance (23.9 ± 6.5 ml/cm H2O vs. 21.9 ± 5.0; P = 0.441), regional ventilation, and regional perfusion, despite higher lung collapse (18.6 ± 7.6% vs. 32.7 ± 14.5%; P = 0.045) with high Fio2. During unilateral lung atelectasis, the deaerated lung had a lower shunt (19.3 ± 3.6% vs. 25.3 ± 5.5%; P = 0.045) and lower computed tomography perfusion to the left lung (8.8 ± 1.8% vs. 23.8 ± 7.1%; P = 0.007). PEEP0 with low Fio2, compared with high Fio2, did not produce significant changes in respiratory system compliance, regional lung ventilation, and perfusion despite significantly lower lung collapse. After left bronchial occlusion, the shrinkage of the parenchyma with Fio2 = 1 enhanced hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction, reducing intrapulmonary shunt and perfusion of the nonventilated areas.

In Vitro Model of Prepacked Carbon Dioxide Absorber Use: Development and Testing.

Carbon dioxide absorbers allow the use of fresh gas flow below minute ventilation (V˙E). Models are developed and tested in vitro to quantify their performance with variable carbon dioxide load (V˙CO2), fresh gas flow, V˙E, end-tidal carbon dioxide (ETco2) fraction, and the type of workstation used. First principles are used to derive a linear relationship between fresh gas flow and fractional canister usage or FCU0.5 (the reciprocal of the time for the inspiratory carbon dioxide fraction to reach 0.5%). This forms the basis for two basic models in which V˙E was measured by spirometry or calculated. These models were extended by multiplying V˙E with an empirical workstation factor. To validate the four models, two hypotheses were tested. To test whether the FCU0.5 intercept varied proportionally with V˙CO2 and was independent of V˙E, FCU was measured for 10 canisters tested with a fixed 0.3 l/min fresh gas flow and a range of V˙CO2 while V˙E was either constant or adjusted to maintain ETco2 fraction. A t test was used to compare the two groups. To confirm whether a change in V˙CO2 accompanied by a change in V˙E to maintain ETco2 fraction would shift the linear fresh gas flow-FCU0.5 relationship in a parallel manner, 19 canisters were tested with different combinations of V˙CO2 and fresh gas flow. These measured FCU values were compared to those predicted by the four models using Varvel's performance criteria. With 0.3 l/min fresh gas flow, FCU0.5 was proportional with V˙CO2 and independent of whether V˙E was adjusted to maintain ETco2 fraction or not (P = 0.962). The hypothesized parallel shift of the fresh gas flow-FCU0.5 relationship was confirmed. Both extended models are good candidate models. The models predict prepacked canister performance in vitro over the range of V˙E, fresh gas flow, and V˙CO2 likely to be encountered in routine clinical practice. In vivo validation is still needed.

Parallel shifts in flight-height associated with altitude across incipient Heliconius species.

Vertical gradients in microclimate, resource availability, and interspecific interactions are thought to underly stratification patterns in tropical insect communities. However, only a few studies have explored the adaptive significance of vertical space use during the early stages of reproductive isolation. We analysed flight-height variation across speciation events in Heliconius butterflies, representing parallel colonizations of high-altitude forest. We measured flight-height in wild H. erato venus and H. chestertonii, parapatric lowland and mountain specialists, respectively, and found that H. chestertonii consistently flies at a lower height. By comparing our data to previously published results for the ecologically equivalent H. e. cyrbia (lowland) and H. himera (high altitude), we found that the species flying closest to the ground are those that recently colonized high-altitude forests. We show that these repeated trends largely result from shared patterns of ecological selection producing parallel trait-shifts in H. himera and H. chestertonii. Although our results imply a signature of local adaptation, we did not find an association between resource distribution and flight-height in H. e. venus and H. chestertonii. We discuss how this pattern may be explained by variations in forest structure and microclimate. Overall, our findings underscore the importance of behavioural adjustments during early divergence mediated by altitude-shifts.

The effects of host ecology and phylogeny on gut microbiota (non)parallelism across birds and mammals.

What are the roles of determinism and contingency in evolution? The paleontologist and evolutionary biologist Stephen J. Gould raised this question in his famous thought experiment of "replaying life's tape." Settings where independent lineages have repeatedly adapted to similar ecological niches (i.e., parallel evolution) are well suited to address this question. Here, we quantified whether repeated ecological shifts across 53 mammalian and 50 avian host species are associated with parallel gut microbiota changes. Our results indicate that parallel shifts in host diet are associated with greater gut microbiota parallelism (i.e., more deterministic). While further research will be necessary to obtain a comprehensive picture of the circumstances under which deterministic gut microbiota changes might be expected, our study can be instrumental in motivating the use of more quantitative methods in microbiota research. This, in turn, can help us better understand microbiota dynamics during adaptive evolution of their hosts.