Instability Paradox Research Articles

Challenges of Nuclear Deterrence Stability in South Asia

The interplay of several international, regional, and local factors poses daunting challenges for deterrence stability in South Asia. The emerging revolution in the military affairs compounded with prolonged crises vis-à-vis the absence of any conflict resolution mechanism between India and Pakistan; the nuclear deterrence is budding a fragile relationship between the two nuclear-armed pugnacious belligerents of South Asia. The Indian aspirations to accumulate maximum power based on its strategic partnerships with the technologically advanced countries in the world are characterized by the classic Indian strategic thinking to establish its leadership in the region. At the same time, Pakistan’s reliance on China in its quests for acquiring military hardware required for the deterrence equation seemingly remains insatiable within the framework of the stability–instability paradox. Without a holistic analysis of the political and strategic challenges, casus belli of the crises, and nuclear command and control systems dynamics between the two, it would amount to a petitio principii to draw theoretical assumptions. Therefore, this study attempts to comprehensively explain the phenomena by analyzing the challenges of nuclear deterrence stability in South Asia at different levels.

No paradox here? Improving theory and testing of the nuclear stability–instability paradox with synthetic counterfactuals

This article contributes to both the theoretical elaboration and empirical testing of the ‘stability–instability paradox’, the proposition that while nuclear weapons deter nuclear war, they also increase conventional conflict among nuclear-armed states. Some recent research has found support for the paradox, but quantitative studies tend to pool all international dyads while qualitative and theoretical studies focus almost exclusively on the USA–USSR and India–Pakistan dyads. This article argues that existing empirical tests lack clearly relevant counterfactual cases, and are vulnerable to a number of inferential problems, including selection on the dependent variable, unintentionally biased inference, and extrapolation from irrelevant cases. The limited evidentiary base coincides with a lack of consideration of the theoretical conditions under which the paradox might apply. To address these issues this article theorizes some scope conditions for the paradox. It then applies synthetic control, a quantitative method for valid comparison when appropriate counterfactual cases are lacking, to model international conflict between India–Pakistan, China–India, and North Korea–USA, before and after nuclearization. The article finds only limited support for the paradox when considered as a general theory, or within the theorized scope conditions based on the balance of resolve and power within each dyad.

Affective variability in depression: Revisiting the inertia-instability paradox.

How can depression be associated with both instability and inertia of affect? Koval et al. (2013, Emotion, 13, 1132) showed that this paradox can be solved by accounting for the statistical overlap between measures of affect dynamics. Nevertheless, these measures are still often studied in isolation. The present study is a replication of the Koval et al. study. We used experience sampling data (three times a day, 1 month) of 462 participants from the general population and a subsample thereof (N = 100) selected to reflect a uniform range of depressive symptoms. Dynamics measures were calculated for momentary negative affect scores. When adjusting for the overlap among affect dynamics measures, depression was associated with ‘dispersion’ (SD) but not ‘instability’ (RMSSD) or ‘inertia’ (AR) of negative affect. The association between dispersion and depression became non‐significant when mean levels of negative affect were adjusted for. These findings substantiate the evidence that the presumed association between depression and instability is largely accounted for by the SD, while the association between dispersion and depression may largely reflect mean levels of affect. Depression may thus not be related to higher instability per se, which would be in line with theories on the adaptive function of moment‐to‐moment fluctuations in affect.

Nuclear weapons, existential threats, and the stability–instability paradox

Recent scholarship has largely ignored systematic differences in the existential threats that nuclear-weapon possessors pose to other states. This study theorizes that the capacity to pose existential threats shapes nuclear-armed states’ willingness to use military force against one another. We explore three hypotheses regarding how nuclear-based existential threats can deter conflict or encourage it, including under the conditions proposed by the stability–instability paradox. We rely on a statistical analysis of nuclear-armed dyads from 1950 to 2001 and employ the Nuclear Annihilation Threat (NAT) Index to capture variation in the existential threats nuclear-armed states pose to one another. We find that being able to pose an existential threat to another state emboldens potential initiators to use military force but does not deter attacks. The emboldening effects are particularly strong under the hypothesized conditions of the stability–instability paradox. Our study provides unique contributions to ongoing debates over the political effects of nuclear weapons.

Competing interpretations of the stability–instability paradox: the case of the Kargil War

ABSTRACTThe stability–instability paradox is a well-established concept in the nuclear-security literature, which scholars use to explain sub-strategic militarized conflicts between mutually deterred, nuclear-armed adversaries. Despite its ubiquity, there is a confusion in the literature as to the precise causal mechanism underpinning such conflicts. Competing interpretations of the paradox differ in states' perceptions of nuclear escalatory risk as well as whether the balance of military power or the balance of resolve determines outcomes in these sub-strategic conflicts. Testing their respective explanatory powers in a case study of sub-strategic conflict between nuclear powers—the 1999 Kargil War—demonstrates that these two competing models are mutually exclusive.

Evaluating the Nuclear Peace Hypothesis

Do nuclear weapons reduce the probability of war? This article quantitatively evaluates the nuclear peace hypothesis. The results indicate that the impact of nuclear weapons is more complicated than is conventionally appreciated. Both proliferation optimists and pessimists find confirmation of some of their key claims. When a nuclear asymmetry exists between two states, there is a greater chance of militarized disputes and war. In contrast, when there is symmetry and both states possess nuclear weapons, then the odds of war precipitously drop. When combined, these findings provide support for the existence of the stability—instability paradox. Evidence suggests that while nuclear weapons promote strategic stability, they simultaneously allow for more risk-taking in lower intensity disputes.

Primary Instability Paradox: The Ethics of Media Coverage in Presidential Nominations

This essay explores the ethics of how the press covers presidential nomination campaigns. It considers the implications of a predictive model that demonstrates how the nomination process limits voters' choices. Nominees may be predicted with a high degree of success before voting begins. Horse-race press coverage of the pre-primary period dramatically characterizes the process as unstable and up for grabs. By doing so, the press paradoxically contributes to the stability and, therefore, is complicit in limiting voter choice. The essay argues for telling the story of the impact of policy and governance on citizens’ lives.

The paradox of instability and stability: United States “Primacy”, China, and the National Missile Defense (NMD) debate

The paradox of instability and stability: United States “Primacy”, China, and the National Missile Defense (NMD) debate

Burnett equations for simulation of transitional flows

Hypersonic flows about space vehicles in low earth orbits and flows in microchannels of microelectromechanical devices produce local Knudsen numbers which lie in the continuum-transition regime. The Navier-Stokes equations cannot model these flows adequately since they are based on the assumption of small deviation from local thermodynamic equilibrium. A number of extended hydrodynamics (E-H) or generalized hydrodynamics (G-H) models as well as the Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) approach have been proposed to model the flows in the continuum-transition regime over the past 50 years. One of these models is the Burnett equations which are obtained from the Chapman-Enskog expansion of the Boltzmann equation (with Knudsen number (Kn) as a small parameter) to OKn2. With the currently available computing power, it has been possible in recent years to numerically solve the Burnett equations. However, attempts at solving the Burnett equations have uncovered many physical and numerical difficulties with this model. Several improvements to the conventional Burnett equations have been proposed in recent years to address both the physical and numerical issues; two of the most well known are the Augmented Burnett Equations and the BGK-Burnett Equations. This review article traces the history of the Burnett model and describes some of the recent developments. The relationship between the Burnett equations and Grad’s 13 moment equations as shown by Struchtrup by employing the Maxwell-Truesdell-Green iteration is also presented. Also, the recent work of Jin and Slemrod on regularization of the Burnett equations via viscoelastic relaxation that ensures positive entropy production and eliminates the instability paradox is discussed. Numerical solutions in 1D, 2D, and 3D are provided to assess the accuracy and applicability of Burnett equations for modeling flows in the continuum-transition regime. The important issue of surface boundary conditions is addressed. Computations are compared with the available experimental data, Navier-Stokes calculations, Burnett solutions of other investigators, and DSMC solutions wherever possible. This review article cites 56 references.

Regularization of the Burnett equations for rapid granular flows via relaxation

In [J. Fluid Mech. 361 (1998) 41] Sela and Goldhirsch have used the Chapman–Enskog expansion to derive constitutive relations for the pressure deviator P, heat flux q, and rate of energy loss Γ for rapid flows of smooth inelastic spheres. Unfortunately as in the classical Chapman–Enskog expansion for elastic spheres any truncation of the expansion beyond Navier–Stokes order ( n=1) will possess unphysical instabilities. In this paper we propose a visco-elastic relaxation approximation that eliminates the instability paradox for all wave numbers, and provide a system of local equations allowing robust numerical approximations of gas dynamics valid to the Burnett order. This system is weakly parabolic, has a linearly hyperbolic convection part, and is endowed with a generalized entropy inequality in the case of purely elastic collisions, thus it is linearly stable for all wave numbers. It agrees with the solution of the Boltzmann equation up to the Burnett order via the Chapman–Enskog expansion.

Regularization of the Burnett Equations via Relaxation

The classical Chapman–Enskog expansions for the pressure deviator P and heat flux q provide a natural bridge between the kinetic description of gas dynamics as given by the Boltzmann equation and continuum mechanics as given by the balance laws of mass, momentum, energy supplemented by the expansions for P and q. Truncation of these expansions beyond first (Navier–Stokes) order yields instability of the rest state and is inconsistent with thermodynamics. In this paper we propose a visco-elastic relaxation approximation that eliminates the instability paradox. This system is weakly parabolic, has a linearly hyperbolic convection part, and is endowed with a generalized entropy inequality. It agrees with the solution of the Boltzmann equation up to the Burnett order via the Chapman–Enskog expansion.

Constitutive Relations for Monatomic Gases¶Based on a¶Generalized Rational Approximation¶to the Sum of the Chapman-Enskog Expansion

The classical Chapman-Enskog expansions for the pressure deviator P and heat flux q provide a natural bridge between the kinetic description of gas dynamics as given by the Boltzmann equation and continuum mechanics as given by the balance laws of mass, momentum, and energy supplemented by the expansions for P and q. Truncation of these expansions beyond first (Navier-Stokes) order yields instability of the rest state and is inconsistent with thermodynamics. This paper shows how an approximate sum of the Chapman-Enskog expansion via generalized rational approximation eliminates the instability paradox and yields gas dynamics consistent with a generalized Clausius-Duhem inequality.

Constitutive Relations for Rivlin-Ericksen Fluids Based on Generalized Rational Approximation

. A well‐known constitutive expression for the stress in an incompressible non‐Newtonian fluid is provided by the representation of the extra stress as a function of the Rivlin‐Ericksen tensors \(\mathbf{A}_1, \mathbf{A}_2,\ldots\). If this function is ordered in terms of the number of space plus time derivatives and appropriately scaled, one obtains \(\mathbf{f}(\mathbf{A}_1, \mathbf{A}_2,\ldots)=\mu\mathbf{A}_1+\mu^2 (\alpha_1\mathbf{A}_2 +\alpha_2 \mathbf{A}^2_1)+\cdots\). Truncation at first order yields the usual Newtonian viscous stress while truncation at second order provides the second‐order Rivlin‐Ericksen fluid. Many rheologists believe that \(\alpha_1<0\) in polymeric fluids. However, the requirement \(\alpha_1<0\) causes the rest state of the second‐order fluid to be unstable. This paper shows how the approximation of \(\mathbf{f}\) via generalized rational functions eliminates the instability paradox.

PRICES AND PRODUCTION LEVELS IN THE CLOSED DYNAMIC INPUT‐OUTPUT SYSTEM*

In this paper a new theory of output level and price determination in a closed dynamic input-output framework is considered. This theory, suggested by Filippini, does not exhibit the well-known dual instability paradox, which characterizes the received theory of Leontief and Solow. After having highlighted some weaknesses of the new theory, it is shown that the most remarkable shortcoming of Filippini's output system (as well as of almost all literature on the subject) consists in not considering the constraints put in every period by available capital stocks. A variant of the model is suggested that is capable of overcoming such a difficulty. A variant of the price system is also presented where the desired rate of profit is determined endogenously. In this model prices, if coupled with the preceding output system, converge to natural prices. Copyright 1991 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester