Panel Threshold Regression Model Research Articles

The Operational Risk Disclosure Threshold Effect in the Earnings Management–Sustainability Firm Performance Nexus in Saudi Arabia: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Regression Model

Although the relationship between earnings management and firm performance has been well explored in the literature, sustainable performance has not yet been examined. Furthermore, the literature has not addressed the issue of nonlinearity between earnings management and firm performance. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the potential nonlinear relationship between earnings management and sustainable firm performance in Saudi Arabia using a sample of 70 listed firms over the 2015–2022 period. Specifically, it investigates the operational risk disclosure threshold effect in the earning management–sustainable firm performance nexus. To do so, the dynamic panel threshold regression model (DPTR) is performed. The result proves that there is a threshold effect of operational risk disclosure in the relationship between earning management and sustainable firm performance. Specifically, the threshold values of operational risk disclosure for the three models are estimated at 6 between the low- and the high-operational-risk-disclosure regimes. In the lower regime, firm performance decreases when earning management increases; however, in the higher regime, firm performance increases when earning management increases. These outcomes support the predictions of agency and positive accounting theories.

CO2 Emissions, Remittances, Energy Intensity and Economic Development: The Evidence from Central Asia

Remittances are a crucial part of economic expansion, especially in Central Asia. Nevertheless, it is not possible to ignore its environmental damage. This paper is a pioneer in investigating the association among CO2 emissions, remittances, energy consumption and economic development in Central Asian countries (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) spanning the period of 1995–2022. As a methodology, the FMOLS estimator is applied to check linear impact and long-run association as well. Panel threshold regression model and 2SLS method are applied to examine potential non-linear relations among the studied variables. Hausman–Taylor and Amacurdy estimators are employed to control the endogeneity issue among the variables of interest. The results suggest the existence of a long-run relationship among the studied variables. Precisely, applying the FMOLS method, remittances negatively impact CO2 emissions in the long run. The relationship between CO2 emissions and remittances is distorted when the endogeneity issue is considered with the Panel threshold regression model, 2SLS method, and Hausman–Taylor and Amacurdy estimators. This distortion validates the linear impact of remittances on CO2 emissions in CA. The Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test shows that all independent variables have a causal effect on the dependent variable, validating the effect of the studied variables. Consequently, decision-makers should facilitate remittances towards more environmentally friendly and sustainable solutions to prevent the detrimental effects of remittance inflows on carbon emissions in Central Asia.

Debt, economic growth and threshold effects: Evidence from developing countries

PurposeMost empirical papers on threshold effects between debt and growth focus on developed countries or a mix of developing and developed economies, often using public debt. Evidence for developing economies is inconclusive, as is the analysis of other threshold effects such as those probably caused by the level of relative development or the repayment capacity. The objective of this study was to examine threshold effects for developing economies, including external and total debt, and identify them in the debt-growth relation considering three determinants: debt itself, initial real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and debt to exports ratio.Design/methodology/approachWe used a panel threshold regression model (PTRM) and a dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM) for a sample of 47 developing countries from 1970 to 2019.FindingsWe found (1) no evidence of threshold effects applying total debt as a threshold variable; (2) one critical value for external debt of 42.32% (using PTRM) and 67.11% (using DPTM), above which this factor is detrimental to growth; (3) two turning points for initial GDP as a threshold variable, where total and external debt positively affects growth at a very low initial GDP, it becomes nonsignificant between critical values, and it negatively influences growth above the second threshold; (4) one critical value for external debt to exports using PTRM and DPTM, below which external debt positively affects growth and negatively above it.Originality/valueThe outcome suggests that only poorer economies can leverage credits. The level of the threshold for the debt to exports ratio is higher than that found in previous literature, implying that the external restriction could be less relevant in recent periods. However, the threshold for the external debt-to-GDP ratio is lower compared to previous evidence.

Accounting integrity, borrowing capacity and corporate R&D input: Evidence from China

Accounting integrity regulates market order, enhances corporate financial credit, and empowers corporate innovation. This paper explores how the construction of an accounting integrity system in micro entities affects and plays a role in enterprises’ R&D input policies and uses a panel threshold regression model to study the nonlinear relationship between the two empirically. By constructing a mediation model, we examined the mediating effect of borrowing capacity on the impact of accounting integrity on corporate R&D input and performed a robustness test. Our findings include: (1) improving accounting integrity ensures the quality of accounting information in enterprises; (2) the facilitation effect of accounting integrity on corporate R&D input shows a single threshold effect, and the improvement of accounting integrity is increasingly conducive to corporate R&D input; and (3) accounting integrity increases enterprises’ chances of borrowing capacity, alleviating the financing constraints of enterprises, and promoting enterprise innovation.

The PM2.5 pollution rebound effect and industrial structure adjustment in China: The impact of heterogeneous technological progress and resource dependence

Adjusting industrial structure is the fundamental way of pollution control and environmental protection. Analyzing the PM2.5 pollution rebound effect of industrial structure adjustment based on heterogeneous technological progress and resource dependence is of great significance for in-depth and sustained pollution reduction. The results of combining the panel threshold regression model and the modified STIRPAT model on provincial panel data from 2008 to 2022 show that a 1% increase in structural upgrading results in a 0.4130% decrease in PM2.5 pollution; a 1% increase in structural rationalization results in a 0.0934% decrease in PM2.5 pollution. Resource dependence causes the PM2.5 pollution rebound effect of industrial structure adjustment; industrial structure upgrading with resource dependence has an insignificant increase effect on PM2.5 pollution, 1% increase of rationalization with resource dependence leads to a 2.8637% increase in PM2.5 pollution. As technology progresses, the increasing effect of industrial structure upgrading with resource dependence on pollution gradually weakens and finally transforms into a reduction effect; the reduction effect of industrial structure rationalization with resource dependence becomes an increasing effect causing the rebound to reappear and then turns to be a reduction effect again, show an invert “N.” Heterogeneous technological progress has the paradox impact mechanism on the pollution rebound; environmental protection technological progress can eliminate the pollution rebound, whereas energy-saving technological progress may cause a pollution rebound effect of industrial structure rationalization.

Optimizing the medical equipment investment in primary care centres in rural China: evidence from a panel threshold model

BackgroundThe previous “one-size-fits-all” practice in resource allocation can no longer adapt to the spatial variation in population and health needs. This study aimed to investigate the spatially heterogeneous effect of medical equipment investment in the township health centres in rural China to optimize the investment strategies.MethodsBased on the national-scale stratified multistage cluster sampling, 319 township health centres from six provinces were included in the study. The retrospective data from 2013 to 2017 were collected for each sampled township health centres and the corresponding township community. The panel threshold regression model was applied to estimate the nonlinear effect of medical equipment increment on the service utilization due to the township communities’ urbanization degree. The influence of township community remoteness on the effects of equipment increment was investigated through subgroup analysis.ResultsAmong the township health centres in the neighbouring towns of the county seat (travel time to the county seat < 1 h), the significant effect of medical equipment increment was only found in the township health centres of the towns with high urbanization degrees (the proportion of the residents living in the built-up area > 69.89%), of which the effect size was 774.81 (95% CI 495.63, 1053.98, p < 0.05). Among the township health centres in the remote towns (travel time ≥ 1 h), the effect of medical equipment increment in the township health centres of the low urbanized towns (urban ≤ 5.99%, β = 1052.54, p < 0.01) was around four times the size of that of the counterparts (urban > 5.99%, β = 237.00, p < 0.01).ConclusionThis study demonstrated the spatially heterogeneous effect of medical equipment investment in the primary care centres in rural China. The priority of the equipment investment was suggested to be given to the township health centres in the remote towns with a low urbanization degree and those in the highly-urbanized neighbouring towns of the county seats.

Have Precious Metals Lost Their Protective Powers During COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine War?

We reassess the inflation-hedging potentials of precious metals during the COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine war periods and document findings for some advanced and emerging markets. We adopt the dynamic panel threshold regression model and account for the policy rates of the economies in the analyses. We find that while gold retained its protective powers, the reverse was the case for silver during the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. We offer a suggestion for investors and recommend that related studies take account of the monetary policy environment of the markets.

Analysis of the Influence of Ideological and Political Education on Students’ Psychological Cognition in Colleges and Universities in the Context of Informatization

Abstract To assist students develop sound moral principles and enhance their psychological and cognitive abilities, colleges and universities should provide them with ideological and political education. This study builds a standard regression model and a panel threshold regression model using statistical data collected from colleges and universities across the nation from 2012 to 2019 as an example. The models are evaluated for smoothness and multiple covariance by the testing process. Panel threshold regression and benchmark regression were employed to evaluate the impact of political and ideological education on learners’ psychological cognition in colleges and universities. The findings indicate that, in the absence of a control variable, students’ psychological cognition rises by 0.521 points for every percentage point increase in the intensity of ideological and political education provided by colleges and universities. The teaching content, cognitive mechanism, and psychological needs of political and ideological education in higher education institutions have a single threshold effect on the level of psychological cognition of students, with threshold values of 84.54, 29.16, and 35.98, respectively. Cognitive mechanisms and psychological needs are currently below these thresholds, and they will not exceed them. The psychological and cognitive development of the kids won’t be affected by the level being below the threshold value. To enhance students’ psychological cognition, civic education at colleges and universities must identify the psychological requirements of the students, comprehend the subject matter, and employ solid cognitive procedures.

Quality of life and regional economic development: Evidence from China.

With the development of China's economy entering a new stage, the quality of life, which centers on the well-being of residents, provides an essential hand in promoting the transformation of the regional economy from high-speed development to high-quality development. Based on a panel threshold regression model, we examine in this paper whether quality of life helps regional economies realize developmental convergence. The research shows that: (1) The quality of life overall can promote regional economic development and passes the series test with relatively robust results. (2) The quality of life has a non-linear effect on regional economic growth, which is mainly manifested in the fact that the impact is more significant in regions with higher levels of quality of life and weaker in regions with lagging quality of life and may widen the gap between regions at the same time. (3) We categorize the study regions to test further regional heterogeneity based on regional location and development status. At the Quality of Life Level-I regions, their influence on economic development has a more substantial pulling effect. Therefore, each region should seize the strategic opportunity to improve the quality of life, focus on the balanced development of the quality of life, strengthen policy support and social security, and strive to promote the coordinated development of China's regional economy.

The attenuating effect of green finance on environmental quality and its mechanism: Spatial modified PTRM model

The traditional Panel Threshold Regression Model (PTRM) neglects spatial factors, causing model bias in prior research on green finance's environmental impact. To address this shortcoming, a Spatial Modified PTRM Model is constructed to investigate green finance's spatial threshold effects on the environment. Moreover, this study analyzes temporal and regional heterogeneities and explores the influence mechanisms underlying the observed attenuating in environmental effects. Results show that: (1) The "more developed, less effective" phenomenon in green finance's environmental impact is confirmed, instead of cumulative enhancement, as green finance intensity surpasses thresholds around −0.48 to −0.61, its effects decrease by approximately 66.3%–156.1% units. (2) Temporal and regional heterogeneities in the attenuating phenomenon are explored, in 2015, the attenuation phenomenon initiates, transitioning from statistical ''insignificance'' to ''significance'', from ''rapid development'' to ''plateau'', and from ''single high-value peak'' to ''single low-value peak'', also, developed green finance regions experience the most significant attenuation, up to 76.0% more pronounced than less developed regions. (3) The unbalanced regional distribution and the free-riding phenomenon are confirmed as two factors contributing to the attenuation, with the ellipse center shifting southward and the index deviating since around 2015, meanwhile, the free-riding intensity has increased over time, surging from around 0.10 in the early stages to approximately 0.40 in 2021.

Tác động môi trường của tăng trưởng kinh tế: Tiếp cận bằng mô hình ngưỡng bảng động

The paper uses the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory to study the environmental impact of economic growth in 17 Asian countries in the period 1996-2019 and at the same time search for the income threshold which causes a change in direction of impact. A dynamic panel threshold regression model is used. The findings show that economic growth has an inverted U-shaped nonlinear effect on environmental degradation. Accordingly, economic growth increases the impact on degradation when GDP per capita is low, but when it exceeds the threshold point (12487 USD thousand/person/year), economic growth helps to improve environmental quality. When comparing the difference in impact between the group of developed and developing countries, our results again confirm these findings. This result provided evidence that the EKC hypothesis exists in Asian countries. In addition, energy consumption, foreign direct investment, trade openness, and institutional quality significantly impact CO2 emissions. Some policy implications are suggested to reduce environmental degradation and promote sustainable economic development in Asia based on the research results

Research on the Development of China’s Sports Tourism Industry Based on the Background of Big Data Era

Abstract In this paper, we use the support vector regression algorithm to minimize the loss function between the real value of sports tourism samples and the predicted value of the model, deal with the complex nonlinear problems through the MLP neural network model, and design a sports tourism development model based on the machine learning model. Focusing on the use of a support vector regression algorithm and MLP neural network model to predict the tourist flow, the panel threshold regression model is used to test whether the variables have a threshold effect on each other and the relationship between the sports industry and tourism development is deeply explored. Based on this basis, the current situation and development of sports tourism were analyzed using data from Province S and 29 provinces in China. The results show that there is a threshold effect on the influence of the Chinese sports industry on regional tourism development, and the estimated value of the threshold is 1.8293. The level of the sports industry in Chinese provinces can be divided into less developed regions of the sports industry ≤1.8293 and developed regions of the sports industry &gt;1.8293. In the first model, which only includes the value of the level of the sports industry in the current period, the relationship between the sports industry and regional tourism development presents a “ λ Λ” shape.

Towards sustainable development: Investigating the effect of green financial indicators on renewable energy via the mediating variable

Green financing is essential because it guarantees that initiatives that seek to reduce the world's reliance on fossil fuels receive the necessary funding to be successful. Green financial metrics can be simultaneously made possible by specialized technological innovation and natural resource rent, thereby encouraging the adoption of sustainable energy. In this paper, we investigate the mediating mechanisms underlying the relationship between green financial indicators and renewable energy consumption RNEC and we contribute to the ongoing discussion surrounding this relationship. Our observational example is derived from data collected for 66 countries between 2004 and 2019 using a panel threshold regression model defined with the difference generalized method of moments (GMM). We find that green funding initiatives have accelerated the adoption of renewable energy sources by encouraging increases in the proportion of renewable energy in the fuel supply. Multiple analyses of reliability corroborate the existence of this link. Green funding has been shown to have an encouraging effect on the transition to renewable energy, and our findings indicate that technological advancement and natural resource leasing serve to mitigate this effect. To assist policymakers in reducing the world's reliance on polluting energy, our study demonstrates how green financial markets can be established through improved technological innovation and natural resource management.

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This study aims to analyze the impact of financial development on greenhouse gas emissions in the case of developing countries, considering the spillover effects due to energy consumption. For this purpose, static and dynamic panel threshold regression models were used. The evidence obtained from the 2003-2019 period data shows that financial development has a significant threshold effect on emissions. How this effect works depends on the distinction between financial institutions and financial markets. In contrast to financial market development, in countries where the financial institution development index is above 0.356, the forces that increase emissions have been observed to weaken.

Revisiting the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Hypothesis of Carbon Emissions: Exploring the Impact of Geopolitical Risks, Natural Resource Rents, Corrupt Governance, and Energy Intensity

The global imperative to mitigate carbon emissions for sustainable development has spurred extensive research into economic, social, and energy-related factors. However, prior studies present a complex landscape, yielding mixed conclusions regarding the influence of geopolitical risk, natural resource rents, corrupt governance, and energy intensity. To untangle this ambiguity, we construct a research model grounded in the Environmental Kuznets Curve, employing panel data from 38 countries spanning 2002 to 2020. Employing panel quantile regression models, we directly assess the impact of identified factors. Our findings affirm the alignment between economic growth and carbon emissions, supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. Notably, increased geopolitical risk and energy intensity correlate with heightened carbon emissions over time, while corruption governance and natural resource rents exhibit a mitigating effect. Additionally, our study explores the indirect impact of these factors using a panel threshold regression model. Results indicate a diminishing influence of economic growth on carbon emissions. Intriguingly, natural resource rents initially curtail, then amplify the connection between economic growth and carbon emissions. Conversely, rising energy intensity magnifies the relationship between economic expansion and carbon emissions.

Does financial development really spur industrialization in sub‐Saharan African countries?

AbstractIndustrialization constitutes one of the strategies of structural transformation in many sub‐Saharan African (SSA) countries. In this paper, we re‐examine the effect of financial development on the industrialization of 35 SSA countries over the period 1996–2018. Contrary to previous work, we formulate the hypothesis that there exists a threshold of financial development beyond which financial development positively influences industrialization. Using the dynamic panel threshold regression model, and system generalized methods of moment models, we find two main results. First, financial development has a negative and significant impact on the development of industrialization. Secondly, the findings show the existence of a nonlinear relationship between financial development and industrialization development. Thus, we find that financial development has a negative effect on industrialization below the threshold while the effect is significantly positive on industrialization in countries whose financial development is above the threshold. The results are stable to the different robustness tests used. These findings highlight the need for SSA countries to develop better financial institutions if they hope to boost the manufacturing sector.

Impact of technological innovation on agricultural green total factor productivity in China: considering the threshold effect of environmental regulation

Based on the panel data for 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2020, this study explores the impact of technological innovation and environmental regulation on agricultural green total factor productivity by using the dynamic spatial Durbin panel model and the spatial panel threshold regression model. The results show that technological innovation significantly contributes to the improvement of AGTFP. Such positive impact is derived from the direct effect of technological innovation within the local province and the spatial spillover effect of technological innovation in neighboring provinces. Additionally, environmental regulation has a significant double-threshold effect on the technological innovation - AGTFP relationship. Within medium-level environmental regulation, the positive impact of technological innovation on AGTFP achieves a leap forward. Therefore, technological innovation serves as a motivator of agricultural green development, and appropriate intensity of environmental regulation is recommended in the endeavor of promoting green total factor productivity by technological innovation.

International tourism development in the digital economy era: the role of ICT services and digital finance

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate how information and communication technology (ICT) services and digital finance affect the development of international tourism.Design/methodology/approachThe two-way fixed effect panel regression model, spatial econometric model, panel threshold regression model and panel quantile regression model are used. Data on tourism, economic and social development in 198 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2020 are analyzed.FindingsThis study finds that digital economy including ICT services and digital finance has significantly promoted the development of international tourism industry, while there is a negative spatial spillover effect. The promotion effect of international tourism increases significantly after digital innovation reaches the threshold value. International tourism is benefiting more from digital economy with the development of international tourism industry.Research limitations/implicationsThe development quality of international tourism industry has not been analyzed due to data limitations, and the mechanism has not been tested.Originality/valueThis study creatively reveals the development of international tourism industry in the digital economy era from ICT services and digital finance perspectives. This study also shows the spatial, nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between digital economy and international tourism.

Nonlinear Influence of Digital Economy on Rural Revitalization

By measuring the level of digital economy and rural revitalization in different regions, this paper analyzes the nonlinear impact of digital economy on rural revitalization by using a panel threshold regression model. It is found that when the consumption level of rural residents and digital inclusive finance level are taken as threshold variables, the impact of digital economy on rural revitalization has single and double threshold effects respectively. With the improvement of rural residents’ consumption and digital inclusive finance levels, the digital economy plays an increasingly important role in promoting rural revitalization, showing a rising trend. Further, through grouping regression, it is found that the promotion of digital economy to rural revitalization is only significant in the western region where the economy is relatively backward, but not significant in the central and eastern regions.

Urbanization and transport energy consumption in African countries.

Transport energy use contributes to pollution, so it generates negative externalities. This paper analyzes the effect of urbanization on the transport final energy consumption in African countries. To that end, the paper applies the panel threshold regression (PTR) model for a panel of 25 African countries over the period 1992-2017. The findings show that there is a significant positive relationship between total and per capita transport energy consumption and the share of the urban population in the total population. Thus, urbanization fosters transport energy consumption, either per capita energy consumption or total energy consumption. Therefore, the results from this study suggest that African countries should promote sustainable urbanization in terms of transportation.