Panel Threshold Model Research Articles

Research on the impact and mechanism of digital economy on China’s food production capacity

Enhancing and strengthening food production capacity has always been a top priority in agricultural research, serving as a cornerstone for ensuring national food security and stable economic development. This study, based on panel data spanning from 2011 to 2021 across 30 provinces in China, delves into the mechanism through which the digital economy impacts food production capacity. Employing a double fixed effect model, a mediation effect model, and a panel threshold model, we uncover several key findings: The digital economy significantly boosts food production capacity, with robustness tests affirming the reliability of our results. Mechanism analysis reveals that the digital economy enhances food production capacity by elevating total factor productivity and bolstering agricultural resilience. The threshold effect underscores that urbanization levels exhibit a single-threshold impact, wherein the influence of the digital economy on food production capacity intensifies upon crossing this threshold. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the digital economy significantly boosts food production capacity in central and primary grain-producing regions, while its impact is comparatively weaker in the eastern and western regions, as well as in non-primary grain-producing areas. In summary, this research sheds light on the pivotal role of the digital economy in augmenting food production capacity, offering valuable insights into regional variations and thresholds in its impact across China.

The impact of regional emergency logistics response capacity on sustainable economic growth in China

To assess the impact of China’s regional emergency logistics response capabilities on economic growth sustainability, this study develops a set of comprehensive indicators. It applies the entropy weight method combined with the TOPSIS method to evaluate these capabilities across regions. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2021, this study employs panel models, panel quantile regression, and panel threshold models to analyze the impact of emergency logistics response capability on sustainable economic growth. By measuring the regional emergency logistics response capability and examining its effects on the sustainability of economic growth, this research provides foreign investors with a clearer understanding of the ability of different regions in China to handle unexpected public incidents. This, in turn, helps reduce investment uncertainty, mitigate certain risks, and offers valuable insights for enhancing the efficiency of international investments in China. Key findings are: (1) Since 2018, the establishment of the Ministry of Emergency Management has significantly improved China’s regional emergency logistics capabilities, with the eastern region outperforming the central and western regions. (2) Enhancing China’s emergency logistics response capability helps improve the sustainability level of economic growth. This reflects how China’s emergency management departments can mitigate the adverse impacts of public emergencies on economic growth by transforming social logistics into emergency logistics. (3) As emergency response capabilities have strengthened, their impact on economic sustainability initially decreased but later increased.

Scrutinizing the load capacity curve for a global perspective: The role of Fintech, government effectiveness and renewable energy

With the evolving world order, countries are using financial technologies (Fintech) to access financial resources more effectively, and Fintech can have an impact on the environment. This study aims to investigate the influence of Fintech on ecological sustainability, focusing on the contribution of renewable energy (RE) and government effectiveness (GE) under the Load Capacity Curve (LCC). This research analyzes data from 69 middle-income economies between 2006 and 2022 using the dynamic panel threshold model (DPTR). The outcomes document that GDP reduces the LCF below a certain threshold, but a positive impact above this threshold. Specifically, the model yielded a threshold value of $US 5222.234, which is higher than the average GDP of $US 4276.802. This finding suggests a U-shaped relationship between GDP and LCF, which supports the LCC hypothesis. The outcome also reports that Fintech plays a crucial role in improving ecological sustainability, while government effectiveness has a negative effect. The study emphasizes that middle-income countries should support Fintech and renewable energy along development with economic progress to improve ecological quality.

How Does Industrial Agglomeration Drive High-Quality Green Development in China? New Evidence from a Financial and Manufacturing Co-Clustering

We examine the effect of financial and manufacturing co-clustering on high-quality green development in China’s 30 provinces from 2005 to 2020. The nexus between financial and manufacturing co-clustering and high-quality green development has been comprehensively investigated from linear and non-linear perspectives. We find that financial and manufacturing co-clustering significantly fosters high-quality green development. Mechanism analysis shows that formal environmental regulation has a significant negative moderating effect on high-quality green development, whereas informal environmental regulation plays a significantly positive moderating role. However, empirical results only show the mediation effect of formal environmental regulation in the incentive role of financial and manufacturing co-clustering to high-quality green development. A dynamic panel threshold model also certifies the non-linear effect between financial and manufacturing co-clustering and high-quality green development. Lastly, the promotion effect of financial and manufacturing co-clustering on high-quality green development creates significant heterogeneity.

Innovative talent agglomeration, spatial spillover effects and regional innovation performance-Analyzing the threshold effect of government support.

As the primary source of innovation in science and technology, the gathering of creative talent plays a significant role in fostering regional innovation and providing the impetus needed to realize the Chinese people's aspiration of a great national rejuvenation. Using panel data from 31 provinces over a 12-year period between 2009 and 2020, the spatial Durbin model is constructed to examine the spatial spillover impact of talent agglomeration on the advancement of regional innovation performance, and the panel threshold model is identified and set up to consider whether the nonlinear effect between talent agglomeration and regional achievements in innovation is significant. The analysis demonstrates that: talent pooling has a non-linear effect on the level of innovation performance development, within a certain scale, talent pooling produces an increasing marginal contribution to innovation performance, but after exceeding the limit, it produces a diminishing marginal contribution; the double threshold effect of talent pooling on regional innovation performance is more significant, and government support as a moderating variable confirms that there is a structural mutation between talent pooling and innovation capability. The structural mutation, within a certain threshold range, plays the role of efficient promotion, providing reference for improving regional innovation level.

The Influence of the Convergence of Digital and Green Technologies on Regional Total Factor Productivity: Evidence from 30 Provinces in China

This paper explores the development of digital and green collaboration, empirically examining both the linear and nonlinear impacts of the convergence of digital and green technologies on regional total factor productivity (TFP). Using data from 30 provinces and cities in China from 2010 to 2022, the study constructs a panel threshold model with business environment and intellectual property protection as threshold variables to investigate their roles in mediating the effects of digital–green technology convergence on regional TFP. The key findings are as follows: (1) The linear analysis reveals that the convergence of digital and green technologies significantly enhances regional TFP. (2) The nonlinear analysis demonstrates a nonlinear relationship between the convergence of these technologies and regional TFP. (3) The threshold effect test identifies a single-threshold effect for the business environment, showing that once the threshold is surpassed, the positive influence of the convergence of digital and green technologies on TFP increases. Additionally, a double-threshold effect is found with intellectual property protection; as intellectual property protection surpasses the first and second thresholds, the positive impact initially strengthens but then weakens. (4) A heterogeneity analysis shows that the convergence of digital and green technologies significantly contributes to TFP in the eastern regions, while the effects in central and western regions are not significant.

Responsiveness of United States – China bilateral commodity trade to real exchange rate misalignment: Does the complexity of traded products matter?

This paper assesses the impact of real exchange rate (RER) misalignment on the trade balance between the United States and China, accounting for the complexity of traded products. We employ two recent econometric techniques: the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate both long – and short-run dynamics, and the dynamic panel threshold model of Seo, M. H., and Y. Shin (2016. “Dynamic Panels with Threshold Effect and Endogeneity.” Journal of Econometrics 195 (2): 169–186) to uncover potential non-linearities and identify critical thresholds that could lead to a regime shift. Using highly disaggregated trade data at the HS 06-digit level, encompassing 913 products from 2004 to 2020, our findings reveal a negative impact of RER misalignment on the United States’ trade balance with China. However, this detrimental effect is significant only in industries dealing with less complex products. In contrast, industries handling highly complex products show a notably positive impact. Furthermore, our results suggest that industries can benefit from an undervalued exchange rate only when they have a relatively high level of product complexity. Additionally, heightened product complexity can mitigate any adverse effects overvaluation might have on the trade balance.

The Impact of Digital Technology on Water Resources Management: Evidence from China

Digital technology is gradually emerging as a new driving force in the field of water resources management. In this paper, we conduct a thorough analysis of panel data from 30 provinces in China spanning from 2013 to 2022. Utilizing the fixed-effects model, the mediation effect model, a panel threshold model, and a coupling coordination degree model, this study empirically examines the impact of digital technology on water resources management. The findings are as follows: (1) The direct impact of digital technology on water resources management is significantly positive at the 1% level, with notable regional variations. (2) Digital technology improves water management through green innovation. (3) In the process of digital technology promoting water resources management, green innovation exhibits a threshold effect, with an estimated threshold value of 1.840. (4) During the sample period, the national coupling coordination degree of digital technology and water resources management was barely coordinated, showing the following characteristics: Eastern China > Western China > Central China. These research conclusions will offer valuable insights and directions for advancing sustainable water resources management strategies and fostering the deep integration of digital technology and water resources management.

How Socialized Services Affect Agricultural Economic Resilience—Empirical Evidence from China

Socialized services are crucial for addressing the issue of “who will farm the land” and subsequently enhancing agricultural economic resilience (AER). However, few studies have examined the mechanisms and effects of socialized services on AER. Consequently, this study aims to elucidate the impact and mechanisms of socialized services on AER, with the objective of providing new policy recommendations for enhancing AER and ensuring food security. Based on provincial panel data from China spanning 2009 to 2021, this paper examines the impact and mechanisms of socialized services on AER using a two-way fixed effects model, a mediated effects model, and a panel threshold model. The findings reveal that socialized services significantly enhance AER. Mechanism analysis indicates that socialized services enhance AER by accelerating the substitution of machinery for manpower and promoting the efficiency of labor division. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that in regions with high grain cropping ratios and high internet penetration rates, the enhancement effect of socialized services on AER is stronger. Further analysis uncovers a significant nonlinear threshold effect of socialized services on AER. The impact becomes more pronounced when AER surpasses 0.4689. Consequently, this study argues that in the process of constructing a modern agricultural business system, it is essential to focus on improving the differentiated socialized service system and accelerating the development of rural digital infrastructure.

How can local government capacity lift the ‘resource curse’? A study from the perspective of industrial structure transformation

Industrial transformation is crucial for sustainable urban development and economic security. Although more studies have analyzed the relationship between resource endowment and urban industrial transformation, they have failed to include the key factor of local government capacity in the analysis. Based on the panel data from 267 cities in China from 2003 to 2018, the study examines the impact of resource endowment on industrial transformation and the role of local government capacity in it by using linear models and panel threshold models. This study finds that resource endowment promotes the development of the secondary industry in urban, but hinders the development of the tertiary industry. There is a moderating effect of local government capacity that mitigates the lock-in effect of resource endowment on industrial transformation. This moderating effect demonstrates heterogeneity among cities with different levels of resource endowment and geographic locations, and the results are robust. Furthermore, this study concludes that under different local government capacity, the moderating effect of local government capacity on the relationship between resource endowment and industrial transformation is nonlinear, and it also finds that the stronger local government capacity is not the better.

Deciphering the non-linear nexus between government size and inflation in MENA countries: an application of dynamic-panel threshold model

Contradictory to conventional economic theory, which foresees any increase in the size of government as inflationary, this article provides evidence that the reaction of price levels to changes in the size of government is nonlinear. The price levels do not necessarily increase in response to a rise in the size of the government but only up to a certain threshold or optimal level. Accordingly, this paper utilizes the dynamic panel threshold model to examine the threshold effects of government size (measured as government final consumption expenditure as a proportion of GDP) on inflation using a sample of 10 selected MENA countries from 1980 to 2019. The findings of this study stand out in several ways. First, the results support the nonlinear relationship between government size and inflation in the study area. Second, the government size’s estimated threshold level is equivalent to 12.46%. Third, government size negatively impacts inflation in the regime of small governments up to the threshold level. The impact turns positive once the government size goes beyond the threshold level in a regime of large size of government. These findings have ramifications for the conduct of fiscal policy. Policymakers in the MENA region can increase the size of government till it reaches the threshold level without exerting any upward pressure on price levels.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Green Technology Innovation: Evidence from the Threshold Effect of Absorptive Capacity

ABSTRACT Promoting green technology innovation has become a pivotal driver for nations worldwide to achieve sustainable development as a result of the increasingly pressing challenge posed by climate change. As one of the main forms of modern capital internationalization, foreign direct investment (FDI) has become a focal point for countries aiming to leverage its potential for green technology innovation. This article employs a panel threshold model to examine the impact of FDI on green technology innovation in China from the perspective of absorptive capacity, primarily characterized by economic advancement, infrastructure construction, and environmental regulation. The results demonstrate that, first, the impact of FDI on green technology innovation exhibits a distinct threshold effect; when absorptive capacity falls below the threshold value, FDI can impede green technology innovation, but when absorptive capacity exceeds the threshold value, FDI can facilitate green technology innovation. Second, the impact of FDI on green technology innovation is more pronounced in the eastern region and the southeastern region of Hu line. Third, the impact of FDI on green technology innovation reveals a boundary effect within provincial border cities. However, the radiation effect of FDI on green technology innovation demonstrates limitations. The advancement of green technology innovation can effectively address environmental challenges. This article enhances our understanding of the impact of absorptive capacity on FDI and the role that plays on green technology innovation. The contribution of this work will broaden understanding of the relationship between FDI and green technology innovation.

Study of spatial spillover effects and threshold characteristics of the influence of urbanization on grain green production efficiency in China under carbon constraints.

Food security is a basic guarantee for maintaining social stability, and improving green and healthy grain production is the way to promote food security. China is currently experiencing rapid urbanization that has an impact on grain production and security, with reduced arable land, environmental pollution, insufficient agricultural population, and inadequate resource allocation. How to deal with the relationship between urbanization and grain production becomes the key to solve this problem. Therefore, this study constructs an evaluation system of grain green production efficiency (GGPE) with non-expected output containing carbon emissions, and uses the super-efficient SBM model to measure the level of GGPE, and constructs a spatial econometric model to examine the spatial correlation and spillover effect of urbanization on GGPE; then constructs a panel threshold model to analyze the nonlinear threshold characteristics between urbanization and GGPE. It was found that (1) from 2000 to 2019, China's GGPE showed an overall upward trend, and the performance of GGPE varied among different provinces. (2) According to the results of the spatial econometric model, China's GGPE shows obvious spatial characteristics, and the level of urbanization not only directly affects regional GGPE but also can indirectly affect neighboring regions' GGPE through spatial spillover effects, and the indirect effects among regions are larger than the direct effects. (3) Spatial threshold effect results, there is a significant non-linear threshold characteristic of the impact of urbanization rate on GGPE. In terms of the influence effects of other variables, the influence of each variable on GGPE is roughly in the same direction as the influence under the spatial spillover effect, but the degree of influence is slightly different.

Manufacturing and the real exchange rate: natural resource rents matter when measuring misalignments

ABSTRACT We analyse the relationship between the share of manufacturing in GDP and real exchange rate misalignments based on the purchasing power parity criterion (PPP) and a sample of 102 developing and transition economies (2003–2019). In a departure from usual practice, we subtract natural resource rents from GDP in order to correct misalignments for the productivity bias. A dynamic threshold panel model is used and we separate out the impact of undervaluation and overvaluation components in the same regression. Overvaluation has a negative linear effect, while undervaluation stimulates the manufacturing sector in a non-linear way. Above an 18% threshold, the marginal effect of undervaluation diminishes.

Effects of the Policy of Re-Designation of Counties as Cities or City Districts on the Agricultural Carbon Emission: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta Region in China

It is of great practical significance to utilize the agricultural carbon emission reduction effect of the policy of re-designation of counties as cities or city districts (RCCD) to achieve agricultural high-quality development. This paper uses panel data of 39 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region in China from 2010 to 2022, and adopts a staggered difference-in-difference model and a panel threshold model to identify the causal impact of the policy of RCCD on agricultural carbon emissions (ACE). We show that: (1) Overall, the policy of RCCD exerts a tangible dampening effect on ACE, with cities in the experimental group exhibiting a significant reduction of 0.069 in agricultural carbon emissions compared to the control group post-implementation of the policy. (2) A dual-threshold effect of environmental regulation emerges in the context of the policy of RCCD, wherein the impact on ACE varies depending on the level of environmental regulation. (3) The policy of RCCD exerts a notable inhibitory influence on urban ACE in cities with high urbanization levels, underdeveloped regions and central regions. (4) Agricultural green technology progress plays the mediating role in the relationship between the policy of RCCD and ACE. (5) The suppressive effect of the policy of RCCD on ACE is characterized by a delayed and enduring influence. Our study has both theoretical and practical implications for accelerating agricultural high-quality development.

Does artificial intelligence affect the ecological footprint? –Evidence from 30 provinces in China

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology serves as a powerful tool to optimize energy efficiency and lessen ecological footprints. Using data from 30 provinces in China over the period from 2018 to 2022, this study investigates how regional AI development affects the per capita ecological footprint and explores the underlying mechanisms. The results show that: (1) Regional AI development can significantly decrease the ecological footprint, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness checks. (2) Mediation effect analysis indicates that AI technology mainly decreases the ecological footprint by improving energy utilization efficiency. (3) The panel threshold model results show that AI's influence on the ecological footprint has a single energy efficiency threshold. Only when regional energy efficiency exceeds a certain threshold can AI fully exert its suppressive effect on the ecological footprint. (4) Regional heterogeneity analysis shows that the reduction effect of AI on the ecological footprint is more pronounced in the central and eastern regions of China. This paper helps clarify the specific impact of AI technology development on the ecological footprint and provides scientific evidence for regional technology development, energy efficiency improvement, and ecological environment policy formulation.

Thresholds to sustainability: Globalization's impact on the institutional quality-ecological footprint nexus in Africa

This study explores how globalization influences the relationship between institutional quality and the ecological footprint in Africa. Utilizing dynamic panel threshold models with data from 49 African countries (2002-2022), we investigate how different types of globalization—economic, social, cultural, and political—affect this relationship. Our findings reveal that the impact of institutional quality on the ecological footprint varies significantly depending on globalization thresholds. Specifically, below certain thresholds, improved institutional quality increases the ecological footprint, whereas above these thresholds, it tends to reduce it. For economic globalization, the threshold is 53.510; for social globalization, 48.332; for cultural globalization, 28.446; and for political globalization, 69.663. These results highlight the need for targeted environmental policies that consider the specific effects of each globalization dimension to effectively manage Africa's ecological footprint. The study contributes to the literature by addressing the complex link between institutional quality and globalization and provides practical insights for policymakers to design more effective sustainability strategies in the African context.

The impact of tax compliance on platform enterprises’ competitive advantage and the role of contract enforcement efficiency

The importance of competitive advantage for platform enterprises' long-term development necessitates explorations of the factors that influence such an advantage. This study empirically investigates the impact of tax compliance on the competitive advantage of platform enterprises, specifically focusing on the efficiency of contract enforcement using online sales data from the WIND database. The findings reveal that platform enterprises' adherence to enterprises' tax compliance enhances the competitive advantage effect. The results of the panel threshold model regression demonstrate that the positive contribution of tax compliance to competitive advantage is contingent on contract enforcement efficiency. Moreover, the promotional effect is more pronounced in regions with superior contract enforcement efficiency, indicating a nonlinear marginal incremental effect. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the influence of platform firms' tax compliance on competitive advantage effects is constrained by factors such as tax administration strength, information transparency, firm size, and regional variations. These findings deepen our understanding of the relationship between tax compliance and platform enterprises' competitive advantage, offering valuable insights for such enterprises’ decision-making concerning competitive strategies.

Can the Development of Renewable Energy Improve Total-Factor Carbon Emissions Efficiency? Evidence from 30 Provinces in China

Abstract The global temperature is exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels due to the increasing carbon emissions, and developing renewable energy is expected to be one of the most effective solutions. However, whether the development of renewable energy contributes to curbing the carbon emissions while maintaining economic development is still under investigation. Using the total-factor carbon emission efficiency (TFCEE), this paper first measures the carbon emission abatement and economic development of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019. Then, based on the super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SE-SBM) model, the panel threshold models and spatial Durbin models are established to comprehensively investigate the impact of RED on TFCEE. The findings reveal that: (1) RED significantly improves TFCEE. For every 1% increase in RED, TFCEE experiences a rise ranging from 0.020% to 0.035%. (2) The beneficial effect of RED on TFCEE increases with economic restructuring and technological progress. (3) The indirect impact of RED on TFCEE through spatial spillover is significantly greater than its direct effect. Potential transmission mechanisms for this spatial spillover effect are the cross-regional mobilization of renewable electricity and the diffusion and absorption of low-carbon knowledge and technologies. The above conclusions provide empirical evidence for China and other developing countries to formulate appropriate energy transformation strategies. Keywords: Renewable energy development; Total-factor carbon emissions efficiency; Transmission mechanism; Spatial spillover effect; Nonlinear effect.

The effect of human capital on the trade-growth nexus: A dynamic panel threshold analysis

This paper analyzes the nonlinear effect of trade openness on economic growth over a sample of developed and developing countries during the period 1980–2020. Using a Dynamic Panel Threshold Model advanced by Seo and Shin (2016), and Seo et al., (2019), the results prove the existence of a human capital's threshold level above it openness to trade has a positive effect on economic growth. More precisely, trade can enhance economic performance if the human capital is high, otherwise, the effect is negative.