Longitudinal Data Research Articles

A multimodal aftercare intervention improves the outcome after kidney transplantation – results of the KTx360° aftercare program using claims data

The after-care treatment project KTx360° aimed to reduce graft failure and mortality after kidney transplantation (KTx). The study was conducted in the study centers Hannover, Erlangen and Hannoversch Muenden from May 2017 to October 2020 under the trial registration ISRCTN29416382. The program provided a multimodal aftercare program including specialized case management, telemedicine support, psychological and exercise assessments, and interventions. For the analysis of graft failure, which was defined as death, re-transplantation or start of long-term dialysis, we used longitudinal claims data from participating statutory health insurances (SHI) which enabled us to compare participants with controls. To balance covariate distributions between these nonrandomized groups we used propensity score methodology, in particular the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach. In total, 930 adult participants were recruited at three different transplant centres in Germany, of whom 320 were incident (enrolled within the first year after KTx) and 610 prevalent (enrolled >1 year after KTx) patients. Due to differences in the availability of the claims data, the claims data of 411 participants and 418 controls could be used for the analyses. In the prevalent group we detected a significantly lower risk for graft failure in the study participants compared to the matched controls (HR=0.13, 95% CI=0.04-0.39, p=0.005, n=389 observations), whereas this difference could not be detected in the incident group (HR=0.92, 95% CI=0.54-1.56, p=0.837, n=440 observations). Our findings suggest that a multimodal and multidisciplinary aftercare intervention can significantly improve outcome after KTx, specifically in patients later after KTx. For evaluation of effects on these outcome parameters in patients enrolled within the first year after transplantation longer observation times are necessary. The study was funded by the Global Innovation fund of the Joint Federal Committee of the Federal Republic of Germany, grant number 01NVF16009.

Physician and informal care use explained by the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) in children with suspected genetic disorders.

To examine associations between Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) 4.0 Generic Core Scales and PedsQL Infant Scales with formal health care resource utilization (HCRU) and informal caregiver burden. We studied a pediatric cohort of 837 patients (median age: 8.4 years) with suspected genetic disorders enrolled January 2019 through July 2021 in the NYCKidSeq program for diagnostic sequencing. Using linked ~ nine-month longitudinal survey and physician claims data collected through May 2022, we modeled the association between baseline PedsQL scores and post-baseline HCRU (median follow-up: 21.1 months) and informal care. We also assessed the longitudinal change in PedsQL scores with physician services using linear mixed-effects models. Lower PedsQL total and physical health scores were independently associated with increases in 18-month physician services, encounters, and weekly informal care. Comparing low vs. median total scores, increases were 10.6 services (95% CI: 1.0-24.6), 3.3 encounters (95% CI: 0.5-6.8), and $668 (95% CI: $350-965), respectively. For the psychosocial domain, higher scores were associated with decreased informal care. Based on adjusted linear mixed-effects modeling, every additional ten physician services was associated with diminished improvement in longitudinal PedsQL total score trajectories by 1.1 point (95% confidence interval: 0.6-1.6) on average. Similar trends were observed in the physical and psychosocial domains. PedsQL scores were independently associated with higher utilization of physician services and informal care. Moreover, longitudinal trajectories of PedsQL scores became less favorable with increased physician services. Adding PedsQL survey instruments to conventional measures for improved risk stratification should be evaluated in further research.

I am better because of your expectation: Examining how left-behind status moderates the mediation effect of perceived parental educational expectation on cognitive ability among Chinese rural students.

Chinese rural students have been documented to have relatively delayed cognitive development. From an ecological system perspective, empirical studies have identified the significant effect of the proximal environment on Chinese rural students' cognitive development. Yet, little do we know the mechanism behind that. More importantly, how the mechanism differs among rural students with different left-behind characteristics remains obscure. Drawing longitudinal data from a nationally representative survey, this study examines the interrelations between rural students' parental educational expectation perception, their own educational expectation, and cognitive ability. Two models were examined using path analysis. The first mediation model tests the mediating effect of educational expectation between the association of parental educational expectation perception and cognitive ability, while the second moderated mediation identifies the moderating effect of rural students' left-behind status on the association between their parental educational expectation perception and educational expectation. The first mediation analysis reveals that rural students' perception of parental educational expectation is positively correlated with their educational expectation, which further positively correlated with their cognitive ability. The following moderated mediation analysis suggests that students' left-behind status significantly moderated the effect of their perceived parental educational expectations on their own educational expectation. Chinese rural students' perception of parental educational expectation affects their cognitive ability through their own educational expectations. The number of migrant parents within a family further moderates the indirect effect of education expectation.

Weight Nadir and Long-Term Weight Outcomes After Laparoscopic Sleeve Gastrectomy in a Diverse Cohort of Adolescents and Young Adults.

Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) is currently the most common bariatric procedure performed in adolescents and young adults in the United States (USA), but there are limited data available on long-term postoperative weight outcomes in these patients. This single-institution US study follows longitudinal weight data in a diverse group of patients undergoing LSG at age 25years or younger. We retrospectively reviewed records of all patients 25years or younger who underwent LSG at our institution between 2013 and 2020. All weight data documented in the medical record through January 2023 was included. We calculated weight change postoperatively as percent total weight loss (%TWL) relative to preoperative weight. One hundred forty-one patients underwent LSG, at a mean age of 23.1years. Within this cohort, 56.1% identified as non-Hispanic Black or Hispanic, and 39.7% had private health insurance. The mean %TWL at weight nadir was 28.5% at a mean of 1.35years postoperatively. The mean long-term %TWL (in patients with ≥ 4years of follow-up) was 11.8% at a mean of 5.6years postoperatively, with 43 of the 84 patients with long-term weight data (51%) within 10% of their preoperative weight at most recent follow-up. Adolescents and young adults undergoing LSG at our institution had weight nadir comparable to published results during the first 1 to 2years postoperatively, but the majority developed significant weight recurrence over the ensuing years. Our findings highlight the need for adjuvant weight loss strategies to improve the durability of weight outcomes after LSG in this population.

Partial Clinical Remission of Type 1 Diabetes in Swedish Children: A Longitudinal Study from the Swedish National Quality Register (SWEDIABKIDS) and the Better Diabetes Diagnosis (BDD) Study.

Aims/Hypotheses: To investigate the frequency and characteristics of partial remission in Swedish children with type 1 diabetes and whether the insulin delivery method, that is, continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) or multiple daily injections (MDIs), affects incidence and duration of this period, 2007-2011. Factors that increase the proportion of subjects who enter partial remission and extend this period can improve long-term metabolic control and reduce the risk of severe hypoglycemia, improve quality of life, and, in the long run, reduce late complications. Methods: Longitudinal data from 2007 to 2020 were extracted from the Swedish National Quality Register (SWEDIABKIDS) with all reported newly diagnosed children. Data on C-peptide from the participants in the Better Diabetes Diagnosis study from 2007 to 2010 were used. The definition of partial remission was insulin dose-adjusted HbA1c: HbA1c (%) + [4 × total daily insulin dose (U/kg/day)] ≤9. Results: Of the 3887 patients, 56% were boys. More boys than girls were in partial remission throughout the follow-up period until 24 months after diabetes onset. Fewer children 0-6 years old had partial remission at 3 and 12 months but not at 24 months compared with older age-groups. A larger proportion of patients using CSII at 12 and 24 months remained in partial remission compared with those with MDI (37% vs. 33%, P = 0.02 and 31% vs. 27%, P = 0.01, respectively). The level of C-peptide was higher in the group with partial remission and mean HbA1c was lower (both P < 0.001). Partial remission at 12 months after diabetes onset was associated with CSII (odds ratio [OR]: 1.39, confidence interval [CI]:1.13, 1.71), shorter diabetes duration (OR: 0.80, CI: 0.76, 0.84), and male sex (OR: 1.23, CI: 1.04, 1.46). Conclusions/Interpretation: Insulin through MDI, longer duration of diabetes, and female sex were associated with lower frequency of partial remission. Use of CSII seems to contribute to longer partial remission among Swedish children with type 1 diabetes.

Temporal trends in population attributable fractions of modifiable risk factors for dementia: a time-series study of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (2004–2019)

BackgroundInterest in modifiable risk factors (MRFs) for dementia is high, given the personal, social, and economic impact of the disorder, especially in ageing societies such as the United Kingdom. Exploring the population attributable fraction (PAF) of dementia attributable to MRFs and how this may have changed over time remains unclear. Unravelling the temporal dynamics of MRFs is crucial for informing the development of evidence-based and effective public health policies. This investigation examined the temporal trajectories of MRFs for dementia in England.MethodsWe used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, a panel study over eight waves collected between 2004 and 2019 (76,904 interviews in total). We calculated the PAFs for twelve MRFs (including six early- to mid-life factors and six late-life factors), as recommended by the Lancet Commission, and the individual weighted PAFs (IW-PAFs) for each risk factor. Temporal trends were analysed to understand the changes in the overall PAF and IW-PAF over the study period. Subgroup analyses were conducted by sex and socioeconomic status (SES).ResultsThe overall PAF for dementia MRFs changed from 46.73% in 2004/2005 to 36.79% in 2018/2019, though this trend was not statistically significant. During 2004–2019, hypertension, with an average IW-PAF of 8.21%, was the primary modifiable determinant of dementia, followed by obesity (6.16%), social isolation (5.61%), hearing loss (4.81%), depression (4.72%), low education (4.63%), physical inactivity (3.26%), diabetes mellitus (2.49%), smoking (2.0%), excessive alcohol consumption (1.16%), air pollution (0.42%), and traumatic brain injury (TBI) (0.26%). During 2004–2019, only IW-PAFs of low education, social isolation, and smoking showed significant decreasing trends, while IW-PAFs of other factors either did not change significantly or increased (including TBI, diabetes mellitus, and air pollution). Upon sex-specific disaggregation, a higher overall PAF for MRFs was found among women, predominantly associated with later-life risk factors, most notably social isolation, depression, and physical inactivity. Additionally, hearing loss, classified as an early- to mid-life factor, played a supplementary role in the identified sex disparity. A comparable discrepancy was evident upon PAF evaluation by SES, with lower income groups experiencing a higher dementia risk, largely tied to later-life factors such as social isolation, physical inactivity, depression, and smoking. Early- to mid-life factors, in particular, low education and obesity, were also observed to contribute to the SES-associated divergence in dementia risk. Temporal PAF and IW-PAF trends, stratified by sex and SES, revealed that MRF PAF gaps across sex or SES categories have persisted or increased.ConclusionsIn England, there was little change over time in the proportion of dementia attributable to known modifiable risk factors. The observed trends underscore the continuing relevance of these risk factors and the need for targeted public health strategies to address them.

The causal effect of mental health on labor market outcomes: The case of stress-related mental disorders following a human-made disaster

As disasters increase due to climate change, population density, epidemics, and technology, information is needed about postdisaster consequences for people's mental health and how stress-related mental disorders affect multiple spheres of life, including labor-market attachment. We tested the causal hypothesis that individuals who developed stress-related mental disorders as a consequence of their disaster exposure experienced subsequent weak labor-market attachment and poor work-related outcomes. We leveraged a natural experiment in an instrumental variables model, studying a 2004 fireworks factory explosion disaster that precipitated the onset of stress-related disorders (posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression) among individuals in the local community (N = 86,726). We measured labor-market outcomes using longitudinal population-level administrative data: sick leave, unemployment benefits, early retirement pension, and income from wages from 2007 to 2010. We found that individuals who developed a stress-related disorder after the disaster were likely to go on sickness benefit, both in the short- and long-term, were likely to use unemployment benefits and to lose wage income in the long term. Stress-related disorders did not increase the likelihood of early retirement. The natural experiment design minimized the possibility that omitted confounders biased these effects of mental health on work outcomes. Addressing the mental health and employment needs of survivors after a traumatic experience may improve their labor-market outcomes and their nations' economic outputs.

A study of big bath practices in the Egyptian capital market: an emphasis on CEO turnover and origin

Purpose This study aims to investigate how major big bath accounting practices and CEO turnover in Egypt relate to one another, as well as the first to use the CEO’s origin as a moderating factor. Design/methodology/approach This study uses 10-year longitudinal data from 2012 to 2021 and 290 firm-year observations from Egypt’s listed nonfinancial firms that witnessed CEO turnover to identify the significant big bath accounting practices in Egyptian businesses after the Egyptian revolution and the COVID-19 pandemic. Using fixed and random effect models, the authors investigate the impact of CEO turnover on company earnings during the first year of a newly appointed CEO as an indicator of big bath practices after controlling CEO gender, experience, firm size, leverage, return on assets, return on equity and industry. The hypotheses were investigated using static panel data. Findings The results show the presence of big bath practices in the Egyptian market. Furthermore, big bath accounting practices are positively correlated with CEO turnover. Moreover, the results indicate that big bath accounting practices are only endured when external CEOs are employed, rather than internal ones. Research limitations/implications The sample size and availability of data are the main research limitations. In addition, this study only examined CEO turnover and CEO origin as moderators in big bath accounting. Thus, future research may consider other CEO characteristics and political factors associated with big bath practices. Practical implications The findings from this study offer valuable insights to investors and regulators for effective decision-making and governance practices within the Egyptian capital market, while also contributing to a more informed approach to emerging markets on a global scale. Originality/value The findings contribute to the big-bath and CEO turnover and origin literature by showing a lower ceiling for earnings manipulation and using Egypt as a case study due to its unique institutional environment.

Changes in national identity across adulthood: A longitudinal analysis of cohort differences in Nationalism and Patriotism

Nationalism and patriotism are two interrelated, but separate, forms of national attachment that fulfill diverse psychological needs and are associated with distinct political and societal outcomes, particularly amid increasing immigration and diversity. However, little is known about how these two forms of national attachment change over time and/or throughout adulthood. The present study addresses this oversight by using cohort-sequential latent growth models across 13 annual waves of longitudinal data from a national sample of adults born in New Zealand (N = 50,305–50,408) to investigate changes in nationalism and patriotism across different birth cohorts. Results reveal that nationalism remained relatively unchanged until middle adulthood, after which it slightly increased. Conversely, patriotism appeared to increase weakly, albeit gradually, across the lifespan. Some evidence of cohort and period effects also emerged, pointing to subtle increases in patriotism and decreases in nationalism among the New Zealand population. These results are the first to demonstrate changes in nationalism and patriotism over an extended timeframe and across cohorts in a national sample.

Whom Does Remote Work Make Happy? The Digital Divide in Remote Workers' Well-Being.

The global shift to remote work during the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified scholarly attention to remote workers' well-being. Although existing studies explore the varied impacts of remote work, there is a gap in understanding remote workers' well-being through the lenses of social disparity and the digital divide. Extending digital divide scholarship to the remote work context, this study disentangles why some remote workers experience better well-being than others. We conducted a two-wave longitudinal panel study in South Korea during the COVID-19 pandemic (Wave 1: February 2021, Wave 2: October 2021). Among the 501 participants who participated in both waves, we found that individuals with lower education levels were less likely to have remote work opportunities. We focused our further analyses on a subset of 144 employees who had remote work opportunities within organizations with typical hierarchical structures. We found that socioeconomic status (SES) did not directly influence remote workers' well-being but indirectly influenced it by contributing to the diversity in using information and communication technologies (ICTs). Workers with higher SES or more diversity in using ICTs demonstrated lower vulnerability and more effectiveness in maintaining their well-being in virtual organizational communication situations. This study highlights social disparities in remote workers' well-being, which arise from the complex interplay of SES either indirectly influencing the diversity in ICT usage or interacting with virtual organizational communication satisfaction and duration. This study advances remote work scholarship by restructuring theoretical discussions on social stratification and the digital divide reproduced within the evolving work environment.

Associations of short-term changes in obesity indices with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease.

This study aimed to investigate how short-term changes (1-, 3-, and 5-year) in obesity measures affect mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We analyzed longitudinal data from the MJ Health Centre (n = 43,304 for the 1-year study; 24,295 for the 3-year study; 16,138 for the 5-year study) with median follow-up periods of 15.8, 13.9, and 12.3 years, respectively. Associations of short-term obesity indices changes with mortality and Framingham Risk Score changes were explored using time-dependent coefficient Cox regression models, restricted cubic splines, and multivariable linear regression models. All-cause mortality was negatively associated with short-term weight and BMI changes, with greater reductions causing poorer outcomes. Compared with stable groups, short-term reduced weight and BMI were associated with greater risks of all-cause mortality and CVD-specific mortality (5-year study only). Also, either 1- and 3-year reducedor 3-year increased waist circumference and waist to height ratio were related to higher all-cause and CVD deaths than stable groups, respectively. Nonlinear relationships indicated lower cutoff values for short-term changes in obesity indices in predicting all-cause mortality. Decreased obesity indices significantly improved CVD profiles. Short-term changes in obesity indices show complex mortality risks, urging personalized approaches beyond a simple weight loss focus.

Digital Infrastructure Construction and Improvement of Non-Farm Employment Quality of Rural Labor Force—From the Perspective of Informal Employment

The pivotal role of digital infrastructure as hardware support for fostering economic efficiency in the digital economy is widely acknowledged. However, it begs the question, can the development of digital infrastructure also advance social equity, particularly concerning horizontal equity, as exemplified by the quality of non-farm employment among rural laborers, which serves as a barometer for the fairness and inclusivity of the social opportunity landscape? This article delves into the ramifications of digital infrastructure development on the quality of non-farm employment for rural laborers. Initially, it conducts a theoretical exploration of the impact and mechanisms of digital infrastructure construction on non-farm employment quality within rural labor sectors, drawing upon the Todaro model framework and existing scholarly discourse. Subsequently, by integrating data on digital infrastructure construction at the prefecture-level city level with four periods of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data spanning 2014 to 2020, employing various endogenous treatment methods including two-way fixed effects, sensitivity analysis, and instrumental variable techniques, it empirically tests and analyzes the internal mechanisms. The findings reveal that digital infrastructure construction plays a beneficial role in enhancing the quality of non-farm employment for rural laborers, encompassing both subjective perceptions and objective circumstances of non-farm work. Notably, it is observed that digital infrastructure construction significantly fosters improvements in the quality of informal employment among rural laborers, with notable disparities across gender and skill levels. This discovery exerts a positive influence on advancing the sustainable development of the labor market. Specifically, female rural laborers necessitate higher skill proficiency and educational attainment to attain commensurate benefits as their male counterparts. Moreover, caution is warranted regarding the potential for digital infrastructure construction to exacerbate existing power differentials and widen socioeconomic disparities through the perpetuation of the digital divide.

Same-Sex Relationships and Criminal Behavior: A Total Population Study in The Netherlands.

Sexual minority groups experience elevated risk across a range of adverse outcomes. Previous studies from the USA showed that these risks include contact with the criminal justice system for sexual minority females but not for males. This study examined whether this relationship between sexual minority status and criminal behavior was also found in a more secular country like the Netherlands with more progressive attitudes toward sexual minorities. Furthermore, the study aimed to examine whether this relationship applied to various types of crime and could be explained by unmeasured familial factors. Longitudinal data from the Dutch national population, including 75,362 individuals in a same-sex relationship and 3,464,906 individuals in opposite-sex relationships, were used to compare the risk of crime among males and females in same-sex and opposite-sex unions. Discordant sibling models were included to increase control over possible sources of confounding from shared familial factors. Analyses were repeated for six types of crime, including property offenses, violence, vandalism, and public order offenses, traffic offenses, drugs offenses, and other offenses. The results showed that the direction of the associations between same-sex relationships and offending differed for men and women. In general, men in same-sex relationships were less likely to be a suspect of crime compared to those in opposite-sex relationships [odds ratio (OR) = 0.685; p < .001]. Women in same-sex relationships exhibited higher risk than those in opposite-sex unions (OR = 1.560; p < .001). Similar patterns emerged for most crime types and the discordant sibling models yielded conclusions that were substantively similar to those among the total population.

The association between internet use and the choice of medical institution among Chinese older adults

BackgroundAs older people have complex medical needs and still encounter challenges in accessing online health information, the relationship between Internet use and the choice of medical institution made by them is unclear, and we aimed to examine this relationship.MethodsData from the newly released 2020 China Family Panel Survey database were used. Furthermore, we used descriptive statistics to analyze the background characteristics of the sample and a logistic regression model to estimate the impact of Internet use on the choice of medical institution made by older adults. We conducted a stratified analysis to explore the influence of different characteristics on the relationship between Internet use and the choice of medical institution.ResultsTotally 4,948 older adults were included. Multivariate logistic regression showed that, compared to non-Internet users, Internet users were less likely to choose community health service centers over general hospitals (P < 0.001, OR = 0.667, 95CI%: 0.558–0.797). The subgroup analyses found that Internet use only had an impact on the choice of medical institution in older adults aged 65–69 years, those with partners, those with primary or secondary education, those residing in urban areas, those without medical insurance, those with a self-rated health status as average or healthy, those with unchanged or better health trend, and those without chronic disease. The effect of Internet use on the choice of medical institution did not differ by sex, satisfaction, or trust in doctors.ConclusionInternet use may significantly affect older adults’ tendency to choose general hospitals to meet their daily medical needs. The subgroup analyses indicated that different characteristics of older people affected this association.

Cultural heritage and economic development: measuring sustainability over time

This study investigates the role of museums and cultural heritage in local development, highlighting their ability to attract tourists, generate revenue, and promote inclusion and cultural diversity. According to traditional economic theory, cultural heritage provides positive externalities, enhancing employment and improving human and social capital, all while adhering to principles of sustainability. In this context, the Italian Survey on Museums and Other Cultural Institutions offers extensive data on heritage conservation, accessibility, and visitor services. Utilising this longitudinal data, we conduct a latent transition analysis to examine the evolution of the Italian museum sector with a focus on regional differences and museums’ dimension. Our findings classify Italian museums into three homogeneous sustainability states. Additionally, museum size positively affects both the initial and transition probabilities, while the macro-area significantly influences only the initial probability.

Childhood adversities and memory function in later life: the mediating role of activity participation

BackgroundChildhood adversities may lead to decreased activity participation in later life, impacting memory health in ageing adults. Childhood adversities related to deprivation and threat, as conceptualized by the Dimensional Model of Adversity, can exhibit distinct impacts on cognitive and emotional outcomes in children and younger adults. This study examined the potential influence of childhood deprivation and threat on memory function in later life and the mediating role of activity participation in these relationships.MethodsThis study used data from the first wave of Panel Study of Active Ageing and Society (PAAS), a representative survey of Hong Kong residents aged 50 or above (N = 1,005). Key variables included late-life memory function measured by delayed recall test, deprivation- and threat-related childhood adversities, and the frequency of participation in informal and formal types of activities. Mediation tests were used for analysis.ResultsChildhood deprivation was associated with a lower late-life memory function, whereas threat was not. The negative effects of childhood deprivation and its subdomain, economic hardship, on memory function were mediated by activity participation. Total participation scores presented the strongest mediating effect (17.3–20.6%), with formal activities playing a more substantial mediating role than informal activities in mitigating the effect of childhood deprivation.ConclusionsThese findings expand the applicability of the Dimensional Model of Adversity to ageing populations, highlighting the influence of deprivation on life-long cognitive development. Furthermore, this study revealed an indirect mechanism by which childhood deprivation affects memory health in old age through diverse activity participation.

High accuracy model for HBsAg loss based on longitudinal trajectories of serum qHBsAg throughout long-term antiviral therapy

ObjectiveHepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss is the optimal outcome for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) but this rarely occurs with currently approved therapies. We aimed to develop and...

Risk prediction of heart diseases in patients with breast cancer: A deep learning approach with longitudinal electronic health records data

Risk prediction of heart diseases in patients with breast cancer: A deep learning approach with longitudinal electronic health records data

Clustering Longitudinal Data for Growth Curve Modelling by Gibbs Sampler and Information Criterion

AbstractClustering longitudinal data for growth curve modelling is considered in this paper, where we aim to optimally estimate the underpinning unknown group partition matrix. Instead of following the conventional soft clustering approach, which assumes the columns of the partition matrix to have i.i.d. multinomial or categorical prior distributions and uses a regression model with the response following a finite mixture distribution to estimate the posterior distribution of the partition matrix, we propose an iterative partition and regression procedure to find the best partition matrix and the associated best growth curve regression model for each identified cluster. We show that the best partition matrix is the one minimizing a recently developed empirical Bayes information criterion (eBIC), which, due to the involved combinatorial explosion, is difficult to compute via enumerating all candidate partition matrices. Thus, we develop a Gibbs sampling method to generate a Markov chain of candidate partition matrices that has its equilibrium probability distribution equal the one induced from eBIC. We further show that the best partition matrix, given a priori the number of latent clusters, can be consistently estimated and is computationally scalable based on this Markov chain. The number of latent clusters is also best estimated by minimizing eBIC. The proposed iterative clustering and regression method is assessed by a comprehensive simulation study before being applied to two real-world growth curve modelling examples involving longitudinal data clustering.

Marital Bargaining and Assortative Matching on Fertility Preference : Evidence based on Cross-sectional Data in China

Background Despite the relaxation of fertility restrictions, China’s birth rate continues to decline. The Universal Two-Child Policy encourages couples to consider having a second child, often leading to a bargaining process between spouses with differing preferences. Additionally, the skewed sex ratio has increased Chinese women’s bargaining power, highlighting the importance of analyzing fertility decisions through marital bargaining. Methods This paper investigates second-child fertility decisions using data from the 2018 China Family Panel Studies and employs Ordinary Least Squares regression. The study examines assortative matching based on fertility preferences and uses the 2020 provincial-level sex ratio for individuals aged 20–39 as a proxy for women’s bargaining power in the marriage market. Results The study shows that achieving consensus on having a second child requires cooperation between spouses, particularly when their fertility preferences differ. The study also reveals that marriage matching is not random; individuals are more likely to partner with those who share the same second-child preference. Additionally, women with greater bargaining power positively influence their husbands’ desired family size, a correlation not observed in males. Conclusion The study concludes that second-child fertility decisions in China are significantly influenced by marital bargaining and the increased bargaining power of women due to the skewed sex ratio. Cooperation between spouses with differing fertility preferences is crucial for reaching a consensus on having a second child.