Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag Research Articles

Analyzing the impact of fiscal conditions on private health expenditures in OECD countries: a quantile ARDL investigation.

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries have embraced the aim of universal health coverage, as established in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.8. This goal guarantees access to quality healthcare services without financial hardship or poverty. Additionally, it requires correct and adequate financing sources. A country with weak protection for its population tends to spend less on healthcare and experiences a high share of out-of-pocket payments (OOPs), increasing the likelihood of people falling into poverty. This study aims to understand the relationship and causal effects between macroeconomic and public fiscal conditions and private health expenditure in OECD countries between 1995 and 2019. We retrieved OECD data for 26 OECD countries for the period 1995-2019. Panel AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) and panel quantile AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (PQARDL) models were estimated to examine the relationship between private health expenditures and macroeconomic and public fiscal variables. Our results reveal a positive influence of government debt and economic freedom on private health expenditures. They also show a negative influence of the government budget balance, government health expenditures, and economic growth on private health expenditures. These results collectively suggest that public fiscal conditions will likely impact private health expenditures. The findings of this study raise concerns about the equity and financial protection objectives of universal health coverage in OECD countries.

Quantifying the Impact of Natural Resources on Sustainable Growth in Developing Economies: Evidence from Panel Nonlinear ARDL Technique

The main purpose of current research is to analyze the impact of natural resource exploration on sustainable growth in developing economies. Annual panel data of 57 developing countries from 2000 to 2021 has been used for research analysis. First, this study uses a simple Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) estimation technique to examine the long-run and short-run link among the variables. The results depict that in the long run natural resource exploration has a significant negative impact on sustainable growth. This finding supports the presence of the resource curse hypothesis. Besides this, the present study decomposes the policy variable (mining contribution index) into its two shocks i.e. positive shock and negative shock by applying a panel non-linear ARDL approach. The long-run outcomes depict that both the coefficients of partial positive and partial negative sums of natural resource rents are negative and significant. Furthermore, the research outcomes explain that financial openness and international trade have a substantial and positive impact on sustainable progress. The policy implications for current research are to avoid bad rent-seeking behaviors and to escape from non-productive activities to achieve sustainable development. Furthermore, there is a dire need to adopt and support environmentally friendly policies.

Quantifying the Impact of Natural Resources on Sustainable Growth in Developing Economies: Evidence from Panel Nonlinear ARDL Technique

The main purpose of current research is to analyze the impact of natural resource exploration on sustainable growth in developing economies. Annual panel data of 57 developing countries from 2000 to 2021 has been used for research analysis. First, this study uses a simple Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) estimation technique to examine the long-run and short-run link among the variables. The results depict that in the long run natural resource exploration has a significant negative impact on sustainable growth. This finding supports the presence of the resource curse hypothesis. Besides this, the present study decomposes the policy variable (mining contribution index) into its two shocks i.e. positive shock and negative shock by applying a panel non-linear ARDL approach. The long-run outcomes depict that both the coefficients of partial positive and partial negative sums of natural resource rents are negative and significant. Furthermore, the research outcomes explain that financial openness and international trade have a substantial and positive impact on sustainable progress. The policy implications for current research are to avoid bad rent-seeking behaviors and to escape from non-productive activities to achieve sustainable development. Furthermore, there is a dire need to adopt and support environmentally friendly policies.

Does energy transition reduce carbon inequality? A global analysis.

Energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables is instrumental in mitigating climate change. Low-income countries have a higher share of renewable energy in their total energy consumption than rich countries (WDI, 2023). Thus, it is imperative to examine the role of energy transition in affecting relative CO2 emissions between rich and poor sections of the societies across income groups of the countries. In this context, our study contributes by constructing the carbon inequality models with renewable and non-renewable energy consumption as prime explanatory variables separately for 114 countries over a data period 1990-2019. The models are estimated individually for high-middle-low-income countries by controlling for foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth, and innovations. Starting with preliminary econometric operations, we employ the dynamic simulated panel autoregressive distributed lag approach and Driscoll-Kraay standard error regression for empirical investigation. We find that energy transition reduces carbon inequality globally. Innovation has a negative impact, economic growth has a positive impact on carbon inequality, and FDI has an asymmetric impact based on the income level of the countries. The crucial global policy implications are discussed.

Revolutionizing Banking: Neobanks’ Digital Transformation for Enhanced Efficiency

Changes in customer behaviors after the COVID-19 pandemic have encouraged the transformation of banking systems. Neobanks have emerged as an innovation and entered the banking system to compete with traditional banks by offering new customer experiences. Neobanks transform traditional banking products and services which are delivered through physical interactions into those delivered via digital channels. This paper analyzes traditional banks that have transformed into neobanks, specifically their efficiency after digital transformation. Efficiency was measured using Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), as it is highly accurate in estimating efficiency scores. This study also used a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation of the Panel ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), as this approach is useful for analyzing the relationship between variables in panel data, to investigate digital transformation as a determinant of neobanks’ efficiency and examine the existence of short-term and long-term relationships between digital transformation and efficiency. We found that the efficiency of neobanks increases after digital transformation. Furthermore, it can be concluded that digital transformation is a determinant of efficiency and that there is long-term relationship between digital transformation and efficiency. In the short term, digital transformation has a significant negative correlation with efficiency, but in the long term, it has a significant positive relationship; this is because the cost of digital transformation initially decreases the profit efficiency, but afterwards, it increases the efficiency.

How do R&D and remittances affect economic growth? Evidence from middle-income countries

Sustainable development through technical progress for middle-income countries (MICs) is overlooked in growth allied studies. Despite their crucial role in alleviating poverty and resource shortages, MICs encounter challenges in global economic competition, driving persistent efforts to find practical solutions. Therefore, this study explores the integrated impact of R&D expenditure and remittances on economic growth in MICs. Using data from 25 MICs between 1996 and 2021, this study employs the “2nd generation unit root” and “panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)” methods. The “feasible generalized least square (FGLS)” techniques and the “Dumitrescu-Hurlin (D-H)” causality test are employed to verify the robustness of the panel ARDL estimation. The Westerlund cointegration tests confirm a long-term cointegration between variables. The findings of the panel ARDL approach show that R&D expenditure and remittances positively and significantly influence economic growth. The robustness of the panel ARDL results is confirmed by the FGLS estimation, which produces similar outcomes. The outcomes from the FGLS and the ARDL methods are additionally validated by the D-H causality check. Therefore, encouraging R&D and remittances is crucial to accelerate middle-income nations' economic growth. The study reveals a novel mechanism of R&D expenditures, remittances, and economic growth in MICs, shaping their mutual influence on this economic landscape. The study supports middle-income countries' policymakers in creating effective policies for their financial institutions regarding R&D expenditure and remittances.

Dynamics of resource allocation–firm performance relationship: Panel autoregressive distributed lag approach

Dynamics of resource allocation–firm performance relationship: Panel autoregressive distributed lag approach

Correction: Knowledge Economy and Financial Development in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Panel Autoregressive Distributed-Lag (ARDL) Approach

Correction: Knowledge Economy and Financial Development in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Panel Autoregressive Distributed-Lag (ARDL) Approach

Relationships between economic complexity, renewable energy uptake and environmental degradation: A global study

A persistent rise in the emission of CO2 among several economies in the world makes it challenging to fulfil the aims of the Sustainable Development Goals. The present study empirically examines the connection between economic complexity, which is understood to be structural conversion headed for more refined information-based production, renewable energy demand, per capita income, trade openness, industrialisation, and CO2 emissions among income-based groups of nations from 1998–2021. It also incorporates partner economies of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) project because these cover 65% of the global population. The findings of the panel autoregressive distributed lag model confirms that virtually all of the chosen samples of the various economies, aside from high-income economies, show that economic complexity degrades the environment. On the other hand, the demand for renewable energy enhances global environmental quality. The study highlights the significance of clean energy ventures and the production of greener quality products globally to minimise environmental damage.

Do foreign direct investment inflows affect tax revenue in developed and developing countries?

PurposeThis study aims to examine the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on tax revenue in 34 developed and developing countries from 2006 to 2020.Design/methodology/approachFeasible generalised least squares (FGLS), a dynamic panel of a two-step system generalised method of moments (GMM) system and a pool mean group (PMG) panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach were used to compare the developed and developing countries. Basic estimators were used as pre-estimators and diagnostic tests were used to increase robustness.FindingsThe FGLS, a two-step system of GMM, PMG–ARDL estimator’s results showed that there was a significant negative long and positive short-term in most countries relationship between FDI inflows and tax revenue in developed countries. This study concluded that attracting investments can improve the quality of institutions despite high tax rates, leading to low tax revenue. Meanwhile, there was a significant positive long and negative short-term relationship between FDI inflows and tax revenue in the developing countries. The developing countries sought to attract FDI that could be used to create job opportunities and transfer technology to simultaneously develop infrastructure and impose a tax policy that would achieve high tax revenue.Originality/valueThe present study sheds light on the effect of FDI on tax revenue and compares developed and developing countries through the design and implementation of policies to create jobs, transfer technology and attain economic growth in order to assure foreign investors that they would gain continuous high profits from their investments.

Shaping a greener tomorrow: Analysing the impact of environment-friendly technology on ecological footprints in emerging asian economies

The impact of environment-friendly technology on environment quality is an unsettled debate having generated more heat than light. Given this context, the study explores the impact of environment-friendly on ecological footprints using the Environmental Kuznets Curve framework. Utilizing Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag model for aggregate ecological footprint doesn't show the evidence of environment-friendly technology improving environmental quality. However, disaggregated analysis reveals significant reductions in footprints related to Built-up, Crop, Fishing Grounds, and Grazing lands, with positive impacts observed on Forest and Carbon footprints. We also estimate the turning points of per capita income, confirming heterogeneous and footprint-specific Kuznets curves. Notably, we show that environment-friendly technology plays a crucial role in delaying depletion in Built-up land and contracting the depletion phase of Fishing Grounds along the Kuznets curve trajectory. The study, therefore, underscores the importance of environment-friendly technology in addressing environmental challenges and promoting environmental sustainability.

Greening African economies: Investigating the role of financial development, green investments, and institutional quality

AbstractThis study investigates the impact of financial development (FD) and green investments (GIs) on environmental pollution in Eastern and Southern African countries from 1990 to 2020. The research not only investigates the direct impacts of FD and green finance on environmental pollution but also examines the moderating role of institutional quality (IQ) and possible nonlinear effects of FD and green finance. Our analysis from the Panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) long‐run PMG reveals a negative association between FD, green investment, and environmental pollution, indicating that a well‐developed financial sector supports sustainable initiatives, leading to improved environmental outcomes. IQ moderates this relationship, with strong governance enhancing the positive effects of FD and green finance on environmental preservation. Interestingly, the study identifies nonlinear impacts, suggesting that beyond a certain threshold, the contributions of FD and GIs to environmental preservation may diminish. Recognizing these nonlinearities and the role of IQ can inform more targeted policies for maximizing efforts toward environmental conservation in African economies.

Unveiling health dynamics: Exploring the impact of CO2 emissions, urbanization, and renewable energy on life expectancy and infant mortality in SAARC countries (1990–2022)

AbstractThis study examines the intensifying threat to public health caused by increased CO2 emissions from energy and modern urbanization. In this connection, we focused on SAARC countries from 1990 to 2022. The study explores the dynamic association among urbanization, CO2 emissions, renewable energy, and key health indicators, namely life expectancy and infant mortality. It offers nuanced insights by highlighting the requirement for sustainable policies to meet health challenges associated with CO2 emissions and urban development in SAARC economies. To achieve the study objectives, the authors utilized panel auto regressive distributed lag for assessing short‐term and long‐run effects, and the method of moments quantile regressions to check these effects across different quantiles. The empirical results underscore the positive impact of renewable energy, urbanization, GDP, and industrialization on life expectancy. Conversely, CO2 emissions exhibit a detrimental impact on life expectancy, leading towards numerous diseases in both the short and long term. Notably, in the case of infant mortality, the study discloses that renewable energy, urbanization, GDP, and industrialization negatively affect infant mortality, while CO2 emissions positively impact infant mortality in both short and long‐run scenarios. Fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares further fortified our findings, supporting the results derived from panel auto regressive distributed lag and method of moments quantile regressions. The study's policy implications highlight the imperative for governments and policymakers to prioritize renewable energy and sustainable urbanization, mitigating the adverse health effects of CO2 emissions from non‐renewable energy sources. The study's findings further endorse a strategic shift towards renewable energy sources, positioning them as substitutes for conventional forms such as fossil fuels. Additionally, the emphasis is on planned and sustainable urbanization, facilitating improved access to health facilities and overall public health.

Foreign Financial Flows on Financial Efficiency in Sub-Sahara African Countries

The level of financial efficiency in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remained low and incomparable to that of industrialized nations of the world, despite the supposed advantages of foreign capital inflows. This study examined the relationship between foreign financial inflows and financial efficiency in Sub-Saharan Africa against this backdrop (SSA). This study's specific goals are to look into how remittance inflows affected financial efficiency in SSA and how FDI inflows affected it as well. Out of 49 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, 42 were chosen for the study using a purposive sampling technique and an ex-post facto research design. The study used pooled mean group, mean group, and dynamic fixed effects techniques to estimate the model parameters using panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) methods of estimation. The findings revealed that remittance inflows have significant positive impact on the financial efficiency, while FDI inflows have insignificant influence on the financial efficiency. In addition, the combination of economic growth with remittance inflows yielded negative impact on the financial efficiency while the combination of economic growth with FDI inflows yielded a positive impact on financial efficiency. The study concluded that remittance and FDI inflows play vital roles in guaranteeing improvement in financial efficiency of Sub-Sahara African countries directly and indirectly through inclusive economic growth. The study recommended that financial openness policies, like removing restrictions and encouraging free flow of financial resources between entities in domestic economy and foreign economies to promote further foreign financial inflows and enhance further financial efficiency. It is also recommended that financial openness policy should be pursued alongside inclusive economic growth measures such as economic diversification policies.

Financial Market Development and Foreign Portfolio Investments in Nigeria and South Africa

The study investigates the effect of financial market development on foreign portfolio investment in Nigeria and South Africa between the periods of first quarter in 1995 to fourth quarter of 2022. The study employs an ex-post factor research design, the study deploys panel autoregressive distributed lag modelling. The inferences were made at 5% significant level. Findings from the study reveal that lagged Portfolio Investment is not statistically significant to foreign portfolio investment (coefficient = -0.5026613, p-value = 0.275), in contrast, lagged Stock Market Turnover Ratio has a significant positive coefficient (coefficient = 0.5696119, p-value < 0.000), indicating a positive short-term relationship with changes in Portfolio Investment. However, other lagged variables like Stock Market Capitalization, All Share Index, Broad Money Supply, and Real Credit to the Private Sector show coefficients without statistical significance, suggesting limited short-term predictive power. In the long run, the adjusted term for lagged Portfolio Investment exhibits a highly significant negative effect (coefficient = -1.502661, p-value = 0.001). Lagged Broad Money Supply and Real Credit to the Private Sector also lack statistical significance in the long term, while lagged Stock Market Turnover Ratio and All Share Index have statistically significant positive coefficients. However, Stock Market Capitalization lacks statistical significance in predicting long-term changes in foreign Portfolio Investment. In respect to the result, the study recommended that policy makers should implement measures to enhance transparency and regulation within financial markets to promote investor confidence and attract foreign capital inflows. This may include strengthening regulatory frameworks, improving reporting standards, and ensuring effective oversight mechanisms.

Deciphering the shadows: an empirical exploration of corruption’s impact on SMEs credit costs in OECD countries

Purpose This study aims to investigate the intricate relationship between corruption and the credit costs faced by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in OECD countries, a critical yet underexplored area in financial crime research. The primary aim is to dissect and understand how corruption impacts SMEs’ access to credit, highlighting a significant yet overlooked aspect of financial crime. This research seeks to fill a gap in the literature by providing empirical insights into the economic consequences of corruption, specifically on SMEs financing. Design/methodology/approach This study used secondary panel data from the World Bank and OECD databases. The data covered the period 2007–2020 for 25 OECD countries. This study used interest rate for SMEs loans as a dependent variable and GDP per capita, inflation and corruption index as independent variables. This study used the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine the relationship between variables. Findings The empirical findings derived from Panel ARDL postulate an intriguing dichotomy in the effects of GDP per capita, inflation rate and corruption on interest rates in both the short and long run. It was discerned that an increase in GDP per capita and inflation rate correlates with a decrement in interest rates in the long run, suggesting a potential compromise by central banks between controlling inflation and fostering economic growth. Originality/value This paper makes a novel contribution to the field of financial crime by illuminating the often-overlooked economic dimensions of corruption in the context of SMEs financing. It provides a unique perspective on the ripple effects of corrupt practices in credit markets, enriching the academic discourse and informing practical approaches to combating financial crime.

Sustainable development goals: Attaining sustainable living through financial inclusion in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study examines the effect of financial inclusion on sustainable living in 20 sub-Saharan African countries using the panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model. The findings indicate that FII, the numbers of borrowers, depositors, bank branches and automated teller machines exert a significant effect on GDP per capita in sub-Saharan Africa. The Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimates further indicate that FII (which captured the combined effect of financial access and usage) exerts a negative effect on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, the results of the individual measures of financial inclusion, that is, the numbers of borrowers, depositors and banking penetration exert a positive effect on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the long run in sub-Saharan Africa. This portends that financial inclusion is a significant contributor that can improve sustainable living conditions in sub-Saharan Africa. Based on these, the study recommends the need to improve access to and usage of financial products and services through user-friendly and service-fluent financial technologies in sub-Saharan Africa. This will help increase the number of households, smallholder farmers and businesses to access the formal financial system to meet their reoccurring and precautionary funding needs in sub-Saharan African countries.

The impact of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on tourism demand using disaggregated data

AbstractThe present study investigates the impacts of exchange rate and exchange rate volatility on inbound tourism demand in Mauritius, using annual data covering the period 1999–2019 and a panel autoregressive distributed lag model. In particular, we consider 17 major tourism markets for Mauritius. The sample is further divided into Eurozone (7 countries) and non‐Eurozone (10 countries) for additional insights. The results show that in the long run, both the exchange rate and its volatility have negative and significant impacts on tourism demand across the three samples considered, while income in the home country has a positive and significant effect on tourism demand. On the other hand, relative price is found to have a significant and negative effect on tourism demand only for the overall sample of 17 countries, while for both the Eurozone and non‐Eurozone, the impact is insignificant. The empirical results suggest that policymakers should give consideration to stronger monetary and fiscal regulations to increase tourism demand.

Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Evidence from Major Crop Production in India

The study examines the impact of climatic changes on the production of the major crops grown in India. The study estimates the panel data from 1970 to 2020 by using the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique. The results of the study show that in the long run, maximum temperature has a negative impact on crop production, whereas carbon dioxide emissions have a positive impact on crop production. In the short run, maximum temperature and average precipitation positively affect crop production, whereas minimum temperature negatively affects the production of crops. Besides climatic variables, the study also incorporates non-climatic variable such as the area under crop. The results revealed that the area under crop has a positive significant effect on crop production both in the short run and long run. JEL Codes: C50, Q1, Q15, Q54

Determinants that attract and discourage foreign direct investment in GCC countries: Do macroeconomic and environmental factors matter?

In general, foreign direct investments (FDIs) play a crucial role in driving a country's economic development, promoting diversification, and enhancing competitiveness. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which heavily rely on the oil and gas sectors, are particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices. However, these countries have recognized the imperative of economic diversification and have increasingly turned to inward FDIs to achieve it. By attracting capital, advanced technology, and expertise from foreign investors, FDIs enable the GCC countries to expand their economic base beyond the oil and gas sectors. This diversification not only creates employment opportunities but also fosters resilient economic growth, ultimately leading to an improvement in the living standards of the local population. This study investigates the macroeconomic and environmental factors that potentially attract foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries in the long run. Additionally, the study explores the causal relationship between these factors and FDI inflows. The panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration is the primary analytical technique used, utilizing long time-series data from six GCC countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during the period 1990-2019. The empirical results indicate that, in the long run, almost all independent variables significantly influence FDI in GCC countries. Variables such as GDP growth (GDPG), inflation (INFL), carbon dioxide emissions (CO2), and urbanization (URB) are found to be highly significant (p≤0.01) in their impact on FDI. Moreover, unemployment (UNEMP) also positively and significantly influences FDI in these countries in the long run. Based on the key findings, strategies aimed at reducing persistently high unemployment rates, maintaining population growth, viewing FDI as a driver for GDP growth, and continuing with infrastructure development and urbanization are expected to attract more FDI inflows into GCC countries in the long run. Additionally, fostering both long-term economic incentives and creating a conducive business infrastructure for investors are vital for attracting inward FDI into any nation, including those in the GCC. This research would benefit various stakeholders, including governments, local businesses, investors, academia, and the local society, by providing valuable knowledge and informing decision-making processes related to economic development, diversification, and investment promotion.