Pandemic Recession Research Articles

Framing Consumer Behavior During and After the Pandemic Recession: Qualitative Research Approach

Framing Consumer Behavior During and After the Pandemic Recession: Qualitative Research Approach

Navigating the Cascading Ripples: A Study on the Interplay between the COVID-19 Recession and the Financial Fortunes of Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs)

Purpose: The success of Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs) hinges on effective decision-making amidst challenging economic circumstances, necessitating the ability to anticipate and navigate future business conditions. This research aims to explore the relationship between financial performance and the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on MFIs listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India. By analyzing financial data and employing statistical techniques, the study seeks to elucidate the resilience of MFIs during the pandemic and the role of financial ratios in predicting earnings per share (EPS). Additionally, the research aims to contribute to a deeper understanding of the interplay between financial indicators and organizational outcomes within the microfinance sector. Design/Methodology/Approach: This research adopts a quantitative approach, utilizing secondary data obtained from quarterly financial reports of selected MFIs listed on the NSE from 2018 to 2022. Statistical analyses such as paired t-tests, correlation, and regression are employed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic recession on MFIs' profitability and to investigate the relationship between financial ratios and earnings per share (EPS). Findings/Result: Despite the COVID-19 pandemic recession, the profitability of Indian Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs) remained largely unaffected, as indicated by non-significant differences in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) before and after the pandemic. Regression analysis highlighted significant influences of financial ratios like the current ratio, total asset ratio, net profit ratio, and gross profit ratio on earnings per share (EPS), underscoring the sector's resilience and the importance of financial analysis in predicting MFI performance. Originality/Value: This research offers novel insights into the resilience of Indian Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic and underscores the significance of financial analysis in guiding strategic decision-making processes within the microfinance sector. Paper Type: Empirical Research.

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic Recession on Less Educated Women’s Human Capital: Some Projections

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic Recession on Less Educated Women’s Human Capital: Some Projections

Financing Choices in Time of Crisis: Trade Credit and Bank Loan in Thailand’s SMEs Amidst Pandemic Recession

Financing Choices in Time of Crisis: Trade Credit and Bank Loan in Thailand’s SMEs Amidst Pandemic Recession

The U.S. labor market: trends and challenges

The U.S. labor market quickly overcame the effects of the pandemic and 2020 recession. The unemployment rate has returned to its low pre-crisis levels, and the number of vacancies is almost twice the number of the unemployed. The key feature of the U.S. labor market is labor shortage in almost all industries and among all categories of workers. The shock of the pandemic recession accelerated some imminent processes, which led to long-term structural changes. This includes a decrease in labor force participation rate, mainly as a result of large-scale excess retirements, and an increase in telework. The favorable situation in the labor market enables the Fed to conduct tight monetary policy.

Free-rider Problems in Eurozone: Inflation, Productivity, and Exchange Rate

The Eurozone is experiencing historically high inflation. Following the pandemic recession, the Eurozone as a 19-country currency bloc must strike a balance between credibility and economic development. Rather than a bleak economic outlook, the ECB anticipates a brisk post-pandemic recovery. However, the current situation forces the ECB to choose between Euro credibility and economic prospects. This paper begins by explaining how the Eurozone was created using theories about the fixed exchange rate system and currency union. The article then explains the Euro as a public good from the standpoint of a free-rider problem. When there is no distinction between tradeable and non-tradeable sectors, labor mobility and product mobility can address the majority of concerns. However, in the real world, non-tradeable goods and services abound, and the Eurozone must contend with historically high inflation. As a result, the following section introduces the Balassa-Samuelson Effect to examine Eurozone inflation rates.

The Restrained Recovery of State and Local Government Payrolls from the Pandemic Recession

On the eve of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, state and local government (SandL) employment in the U.S. stood at 20 million. In the first three months of the pandemic, SandL payrolls plunged 1.5 million as social distancing reduced the need for many government services, such as in-person schooling, and SandL governments feared sharp revenue declines.

Drivers of inflation in the Greek economy

One of the hallmark achievements of modern central banking has been to quell high inflation. However, after over two decades of low inflation, a series of shocks, including the pandemic recession, supply bottlenecks, highly accommodative policy, and, perhaps most saliently, the war in Ukraine, have led to multi-decade inflation highs across most advanced economies. Understanding the ultimate causes of this inflation surge is vital for the proper design of policy, yet disentangling the various shocks is hard, particularly when they affect prices in the same direction. In this paper, we apply the novel shock decomposition framework of Shapiro (2022) to Greek data and estimate the contribution of supply and demand shocks to inflation developments over the recent episode, as well as for the 2001-2019 period. For the recent episode, we find that supply forces were slightly more important for headline inflation, but much more important for underlying inflation.

The impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on high‐skilled and low‐skilled labor markets in a DSGE model

AbstractThis research analyzes the unequal impact of COVID‐19 on high‐skilled and low‐skilled labor in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. The model is calibrated to fit Taiwan's economy and evaluates the effectiveness of various fiscal measures, including an increase in government spending, an increase in lump‐sum transfers, a disbursement of consumption vouchers, and an income tax cut, for combating the pandemic recession. Our results indicate that low‐skilled households tend to hoard labor more than high‐skilled households during economic downturns. An income tax cut outperforms other fiscal instruments in generating the highest aggregate welfare and in advancing output, employment, and consumption.

COVID‐19 job loss and re‐employment among partnered parents: Gender and educational variations

AbstractObjectiveThis study examines the re‐employment prospects and short‐term career consequences for mothers and fathers who lost their jobs during the COVID‐19 pandemic.BackgroundThe pandemic recession has been dubbed a “shecession,” but few studies have explored whether mothers paid a higher or lower price upon labor market re‐entry than fathers.MethodThis study draws on March 2020–December 2022 Current Population Survey data and focuses on partnered parents with children under age 13 in the household. Exploiting four‐month panels, we use multi‐level discrete‐time event history models to predict re‐employment and linear regression models to predict job‐level wage upon re‐employment, while controlling for a wide array of factors.ResultsPartnered fathers were more likely than partnered mothers to find re‐employment during the pandemic. The gender gap in re‐employment was concentrated only among parents without a bachelor's degree and persisted when all controls were held constant. Moreover, upon re‐employment, fathers had higher job‐level wages than mothers, which was consistent across educational levels. Even with the same job‐level wage before labor market exit, mothers were penalized on re‐entry relative to fathers and this penalty was rooted in gendered job segregation.ConclusionThis study extends previous research by analyzing re‐employment and a critical material outcome for parents (i.e., job‐level wage upon re‐employment) during the entire pandemic, including the “new normal” (late 2022). The results reveal the intersectional inequalities in family and work: Compared to fathers, mothers, particularly less‐educated mothers, paid a higher price for their time out of work during the pandemic.

Rescue policies for small businesses in the COVID-19 recession

While the COVID-19 pandemic had a large and asymmetric impact on firms, many countries quickly enacted massive business rescue programs which are specifically targeted to smaller firms. Little is known about the effects of such policies on business entry and exit, investment, factor reallocation, and macroeconomic outcomes. This paper builds a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous and financially constrained firms in order to evaluate the short- and long-term consequences of small firm rescue programs in a pandemic recession. We calibrate the stationary equilibrium and the pandemic shock to the U.S. economy, taking into account the factual Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) as a specific policy. We find that the policy has only a modest impact on aggregate output and employment because (i) jobs are saved predominately in the smallest firms that account for a minor share of employment and (ii) the grant reduces the reallocation of resources towards larger and less impacted firms. Much of the reallocation effects occur in the aftermath of the pandemic episode. By preventing inefficient liquidations, the policy dampens the long-term declines of aggregate consumption and of the real wage, thus delivering small welfare gains.

Measuring Job Loss during the Pandemic Recession in Real Time with Twitter Data

We present an indicator of job loss derived from Twitter data, based on a fine-tuned neural network with transfer learning to classify if a tweet is job-loss related or not. We show that our Twitter-based measure of job loss is well-correlated with and predictive of other measures of unemployment available in the official statistics and with the added benefits of real-time availability and daily frequency. These findings are especially strong for the period of the Pandemic Recession, when our Twitter indicator continues to track job loss well but where other real-time measures like unemployment insurance claims provided an imperfect signal of job loss. Additionally, we find that our Twitter job loss indicator provides incremental information in predicting official unemployment flows in a given month beyond what weekly unemployment insurance claims offer.

WOMEN’S NEEDS VS. ECONOMIC SURVIVAL DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: NAVIGATING THIS TENSION USING CARE AND JUSTICE

Women are among the many vulnerable groups that are severely affected by the pandemic: All over the world, women have been hit harder by the pandemic, leading some to call the global recession a “shecession”. “Shecession” refers to “the disproportionate impact of a pandemic recession on working women”, which leads to greater gender inequality. Working women have been gravely affected by the pandemic, but their situation is often justified as “necessary” in helping businesses survive. We argue for a caring justice framework, using Fratelli Tutti and care ethics in navigating the tensions between the individual and the community, analysing and transforming the way in which work is structured in the Philippines at present.

Displaced workers and the pandemic recession

Workers displaced during the pandemic recession experienced better earnings and employment outcomes than workers displaced during previous recessions. A sharp recovery in aggregate labor market conditions after the pandemic recession accounts for these better outcomes. The industry and occupation composition of displaced workers, the prevalence of recalls, and increased take-up of unemployment insurance benefits are unlikely explanations.

Recession and recovery from the pandemic

We develop an SIR-macroeconomic model with virus detection and inequality to study their implications for economic and health consequences during a pandemic crisis. We find a two-way relationship between the pandemic recession and inequality that exacerbate each other although such a vicious circle could be broken by accurate and extensive testing. This mitigation effect can be improved given complementary arrangements such as social protection. The extensive virus detection could not only be a better alternative intervention to lock-down to break the “life-or-economy” trade-off, but also prevent the economy to be permanently damaged if there is reinfection.

Job loss consequences and the pandemic recession

Workers displaced during the pandemic recession experienced better subsequent earnings and employment outcomes than workers displaced during previous recessions. A sharp recovery in aggregate labor market conditions after the pandemic recession accounts for these better outcomes. The industry and occupation composition of displaced workers, the prevalence of worker recalls, and the uptake of unemployment insurance benefits are unlikely explanations.

Role of Marketing Strategies to Generation Z in Emerging Markets

The aim of this research is to examine the marketing strategies to Generation Z, social media cognitive engagement, social media influencer, perceived corporate social responsibility and user-generated media communication and hedonic brand image as moderator on generation Gen Z purchase intention, and examining these effects in Covid’19 pandemic recession phase in Pakistan. Research was completed on Generation Z respondents, using an online survey questionnaire were evaluated using through factor analysis, model fit, SEM via Smart PLS 4. Empirical results via structural equation modeling demonstrate that the impact of the four constructs played a partially significant role on Gen Z purchase intention. Gen Z has strong bonding with social media engagement and aware of CSR activities of an organization and confirmed their behavior toward e-shopping. Brand equity and Citizen Behavior are could be examined as a dependent variable but we didn’t due to lack of literature. Social media cognitive engagement and perceived corporate social responsibility has strong relation with generation Z purchase intention which indicates generation Z is engage with social media and CSR activities. Online business operators and trend setter can identify and promote their business on social media sites. Through this study marketers and professionals can also formulate strategies to increase promote their business. The empirical results provide academic contributions to the current group of knowledge in the marketing to capture Gen Z. Using advanced quantitative data analysis will eventually enable future researchers to explain the contribution of the current study to understanding the importance of Generation Z psychology.

A policy-making model for evolutionary SME behavior during a pandemic recession supported on game theory approach

The global economy has experienced a tremendous shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and its effects on the normal activities of SMEs, which provide essential driving economic force. Considering that there is currently no precise prediction about the end of this pandemic, many SMEs must make critical decisions about whether to remain in the market during the pandemic or to leave it, investing their assets in a more secure sector of the economy. However, in order to convince SMEs to remain in the market, thus maintaining the damaged economy, governments may variously apply punitive or supportive measures. In this regard, the interaction between SMEs strategies and government measures can be considered as an evolutionary game, in which the governments impose various policies after observing the evolutionary behaviors of SMEs. An evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) is derived through a replicator dynamic system, and the available payoff of each player is calculated by Nash equilibrium (NA). Finally, a numerical example is presented, and related managerial insights are proposed at the end of the current study. For instance, contrary to general belief, it can be inferred from investigating possible scenarios that punitive policies are more effective than supportive measures in convincing SMEs to remain in the market.

Labor Force Exiters around Recessions: Who Are They?

This article identifies workers who experienced a job separation during the Great Recession or the pandemic recession and tracks their labor force status in the following year, using the Current Population Survey. Workers are classified as exiters if they leave the labor force shortly after their job loss and non-exiters if they do not.

Is this Time Different? The Safety Net Response to the Pandemic Recession

Is this Time Different? The Safety Net Response to the Pandemic Recession