Paleoseismic Indicators Research Articles

Disentangling factors controlling earthquake-triggered soft-sediment deformation in lakes

In-situ soft sediment deformation structures (SSDS) are commonly used as paleoseismic indicators in marine and lacustrine sedimentary records. Earthquake-related shear can deform sediment in the shallow subsurface through Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. The SSDS related to Kelvin-Helmholtz instability have been used to quantify shaking strength of past earthquakes. However, the relative importance of i) lithology and physical properties, ii) potential basal shear surfaces (e.g. clastic deposits), iii) slope angle, and iv) seismic shaking strength (e.g. peak ground acceleration) for deformation related to Kelvin-Helmholtz instability remains poorly studied. Lake Riñihue (south-central Chile) is chosen as a natural laboratory for disentangling the effect of the aforementioned factors because i) the sediment composition of background sediment varies downcore and ii) volcanogenic clastic deposits are abundant within the sedimentary sequence. A previous study at lake Riñihue identified 25 SSDS intervals induced by historical earthquakes of varying rupture extent in 17 sediment cores taken at slope angles ranging from ~0.2° to ~4.9° (i.e. 16 slope sites and 1 basin site). Our study shows that deformation mostly occurs directly above volcanogenic deposits (i.e. 72 % of SSDS intervals), suggesting that volcanogenic deposits promote earthquake-induced deformation by strain softening, liquefaction or water film formation. Deformation thickness of SSDS increases with higher slope angles (i.e. strong positive correlation). Additionally, deformation thickness commonly corresponds to the stratigraphic depth of the youngest preceding volcanogenic deposit, but for steeper slope angles stratigraphically older volcanogenic deposits can function as basal shear surface. Therefore, we suggest that deformation thickness is primarily regulated by gravitational stress (i.e. slope angle) and secondarily by the stratigraphic depth of volcanogenic deposits. The earthquakes related to strongest shaking caused almost exclusively SSDS with highest deformation degrees (i.e. folds and intraclast breccia) as well as largest spatial extent of SSDS, resulting in highest numbers of related SSDS in the investigated cores. Thinner SSDS have higher deformation degrees at a given shaking strength, as seismically-induced shear energy acts more effectively on thinner deforming sequences. Therefore, we suggest that deformation degree is primarily controlled by shaking strength and secondarily modulated by the thickness of the deforming sequences. We infer that deformation thickness is not a reliable indicator of paleoseismic shaking strength as this relies on many preconditioning factors independent of shaking strength. On the other hand, deformation degree can be a good proxy for shaking strength also in settings with varying lithotypes and intercalated clastic event deposits, provided multiple cores are studied to avoid under- or overestimation of paleoseismic shaking strength.

Lakes as paleoseismic records in a seismically-active, low-relief area (Rieti Basin, central Italy)

Small lakes in low relief areas are atypical candidates for studies on paleoseismicity, but their sediments can contain seismically induced event layers (seismites) generated through strong ground shaking, sediment transport, hydrological reorganization and/or changes in groundwater chemistry and flow. Lakes Lungo and Ripasottile are shallow lakes (<10 m deep) located in the tectonically active Rieti Basin in the central Apennines, Italy, where strong normal faulting earthquakes (Mw 6.5 to 7.0) regularly occur. Sediment cores from these lakes provide paleoseismic indicators for the past ∼1000 years. Sedimentological and geochemical analysis reveals four event layers identified in both lakes that correspond with documented large-scale earthquakes in 1298, 1349, 1639, and 1703 AD. Chronological correlation between earthquakes and paleoseismic features is reliable because of the resolution of sediment dating available for the studied cores. The common physical structure is a physically homogenous bed (homogenite) of re-suspended sediment consisting of a denser, high magnetic susceptibility (κ) clastic base, with organic matter concentrated above. Co-seismic to post-seismic chemical signatures are associated with some event layers and may represent abrupt or transient shifts to a groundwater-dominated system, or permanent changes in groundwater flow and/or spring discharge. Excursions in δ13Corg may represent disruptions or changes in carbon source. Not all event layers show the same features, a result attributed to differences in seismic processes as well as the lake attributes, and anthropogenic modification. The observations made here may provide a new means of detecting paleoseismicity and may be applied to other low relief lakes in seismically active areas.

Investigating the source of the c. AD 1620 West Coast earthquake: implications for seismic hazards

ABSTRACTA c. AD 1620 West Coast earthquake has been attributed to the northern and central segments of the Alpine Fault but does not match well with paleoseismic indicators or the currently understood recurrence interval of Alpine Fault ruptures. We model the landsliding and resulting river aggradation from a Mw 7.6 earthquake on a modelled reverse fault located between the central Alpine Fault and the main divide of the Southern Alps. The Waiho–Callery and Whataroa catchments are significantly more impacted by coseismic landsliding from this Southern Alps earthquake than from an Alpine Fault earthquake. The modelling suggests that the c. AD 1620 earthquake was not an Alpine Fault event, and that large earthquakes on subsidiary faults (or fault systems) can have larger localised impacts on river behaviour west of the Southern Alps than an Alpine Fault earthquake.

Postseismic coastal development in Aceh, Indonesia - Field observations and numerical modeling

We model postseismic changes to the shoreline of West Aceh, Indonesia, a region largely affected by the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and ensuing Indian Ocean tsunami, using a cross-shore morphodynamic model. Subsidence of 0.5–1.0m and tsunami scouring during the 2004 event caused the complete destruction of the beach and the landward displacement of the western coast of Aceh by an average of 110m. Comparing a series of satellite images and topographic surveys, we reconstruct the build-up of a new beach ridge along a 6km long stretch of coastline in the years following the event. We then use the cross-shore model UNIBEST-TC developed for a wave-dominated sandy shoreline to determine the controlling factors of shoreline recovery. Input parameters include bathymetric data measured in 2015, grain size characteristics of offshore sediment samples, modeled wave data, tidal elevations from a nearby tide-gauge station as well as measured and modeled postseismic uplift data. After establishing a cross-shore profile in equilibrium with the prevailing hydrodynamic conditions, we simulate the post-tsunami recovery, the effect of the monsoon seasons, as well as the influence of postseismic land level changes for up to 10years and compare them to the observed coastal development. Our modeling results indicate that the recovery of the western Acehnese shoreline after the 2004 tsunami was quick with littoral sediment transport normalizing to pre-tsunami conditions within two to four years following the event. However, field data shows that the shoreline stabilized 50–90m landward of its pre-2004 tsunami position, most likely due to the build-up of a prominent higher beach ridge in response to coseismic subsidence. Observed variability in shoreline position in the order of a few tens of meters since 2009 can be attributed to seasonal wave climate variability related to the monsoon cycle. The effect of postseismic uplift on shoreline position is small and in the order of only a few meters over 10years, which is 3 to 5 times smaller than long-term coastal progradation rates that are driven by abundant sediment supply to the littoral zone. This overall progradational trend will promote preservation of seismically modified beach ridges, which can serve as paleoseismic indicators.

Detection limits of tidal-wetland sequences to identify variable rupture modes of megathrust earthquakes

Recent paleoseismological studies question whether segment boundaries identified for 20th and 21st century great, >M8, earthquakes persist through multiple earthquake cycles or whether smaller segments with different boundaries rupture and cause significant hazards. The smaller segments may include some currently slipping rather than locked. In this review, we outline general principles regarding indicators of relative sea-level change in tidal wetlands and the conditions in which paleoseismic indicators must be distinct from those resulting from non-seismic processes. We present new evidence from sites across southcentral Alaska to illustrate different detection limits of paleoseismic indicators and consider alternative interpretations for marsh submergence and emergence. We compare predictions of coseismic uplift and subsidence derived from geophysical models of earthquakes with different rupture modes. The spatial patterns of agreement and misfits between model predictions and quantitative reconstructions of coseismic submergence and emergence suggest that no earthquake within the last 4000 years had a pattern of rupture the same as the Mw 9.2 Alaska earthquake in 1964. From the Alaska examples and research from other subduction zones we suggest that If we want to understand whether a megathrust ruptures in segments of variable length in different earthquakes, we need to be site-specific as to what sort of geological-based criteria eliminate the possibility of a particular rupture mode in different earthquakes. We conclude that coastal paleoseismological studies benefit from a methodological framework that employs rigorous evaluation of five essential criteria and a sixth which may be very robust but only occur at some sites: 1 – lateral extent of peat-mud or mud-peat couplets with sharp contacts; 2 – suddenness of submergence or emergence, and replicated within each site; 3 – amount of vertical motion, quantified with 95% error terms and replicated within each site; 4 – syncroneity of submergence and emergence based on statistical age modelling; 5 – spatial pattern of submergence and emergence; 6 – possible additional evidence, such as evidence of a tsunami or liquefaction concurrent with submergence or emergence. We suggest that it is possible to consider detection limits as low as 0.1–0.2 m coseismic vertical change. • Revised methodological framework of 6 criteria for coastal paleoseismic studies. • New evidence from southcentral Alaska to illustrate different detection limits. • No earthquake within last 4000 years had same rupture pattern as 1964 earthquake. • Possible to consider detection limits of 0.1–0.2 m of coseismic land-level change.

Soft-sediment deformation structures induced by strong earthquakes in southern Siberia and their paleoseismic significance

Liquefaction-induced soft-sediment deformation structures (SSDS) formed by earthquakes in southern Siberia, that were historically mentioned or monitored by instruments, are described and analyzed. Clastic dikes are the most common among all SSDS in the epicentral areas of the investigated seismic events. They are also the most reliable paleoseismic indicators in regions where cryogenic processes are intense. We suggest seven criteria that may be useful to distinguish the seismogenic clastic dikes from non-seismogenic SSDS in a single outcrop: (1) pushed up sedimentary blocks within the dike body; (2) regular distorted contacts of a dike with host sediments, reflecting cyclic loading during propagation of seismic waves; (3) turned up layers of host deposits on contacts with a dike; (4) displacement along dike contacts usually in the form of a normal fault caused by subsidence that compensates for the removed sediment; (5) a dike structure similar to a diapir; (6) filling of a clasic dike with coarser materials than the host sediments; and (7) a sediment layer extruded on the surface or between strata, similar in composition to the dike. In the extruded sandy-gravel-pebble layer, rock fragments show normal grading (from large to small clasts). In addition to these indicators, fractures may indirectly indicate the seismogenic genesis of liquefaction-induced SSDS. Due to the close spatial relationship of dikes with the fault structures of the investigated areas, they can be used to identify seismogenic fault, and the characteristics of dikes (lateral gradual changes in the frequency, size, and type of the deformations) can help to determine the epicenter, magnitude and the local intensity of the associated earthquakes.

Beach ridges as paleoseismic indicators of abrupt coastal subsidence during subduction zone earthquakes, and implications for Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone paleoseismology, southeast coast of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

The Kenai section of the eastern Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone straddles two areas of high slip in the 1964 great Alaska earthquake and is the least studied of the three megathrust segments (Kodiak, Kenai, Prince William Sound) that ruptured in 1964. Investigation of two coastal sites in the eastern part of the Kenai segment, on the southeast coast of the Kenai Peninsula, identified evidence for two subduction zone earthquakes that predate the 1964 earthquake. Both coastal sites provide paleoseismic data through inferred coseismic subsidence of wetlands and associated subsidence-induced erosion of beach ridges. At Verdant Cove, paleo-beach ridges record the paleoseismic history; whereas at Quicksand Cove, buried soils in drowned coastal wetlands are the primary indicators of paleoearthquake occurrence and age. The timing of submergence and death of trees mark the oldest earthquake at Verdant Cove that is consistent with the age of a well documented ∼900-year-ago subduction zone earthquake that ruptured the Prince William Sound segment of the megathrust to the east and the Kodiak segment to the west. Soils buried within the last 400–450 years mark the penultimate earthquake on the southeast coast of the Kenai Peninsula. The penultimate earthquake probably occurred before AD 1840 from its absence in Russian historical accounts. The penultimate subduction zone earthquake on the Kenai segment did not rupture in conjunction with the Prince William Sound to the northeast. Therefore the Kenai segment, which is presently creeping, can rupture independently of the adjacent Prince William Sound segment that is presently locked.

The Tsagan earthquake of 1862 on Lake Baikal revisited: a study of secondary coseismic soft-sediment deformation

Coseismic soft-sediment deformation has been studied by structural and tectononophysical methods in the Selenga Delta area shaken by the devastating M ∼ 7.5 Tsagan earthquake in 1862. Among the documented deformation structures (seismites), clastic dikes are the most reliable paleoseismic indicators. The dikes have their sizes and extent showing proximity to the primary coseismic rupture zone and are closely associated with faults of different hierarchic levels. The Tsagan event occurred under SW–NE extension as motion on a stepped system of normal faults dipping at 300°–350°, ∠45°–75°.The amount of vertical motion measured against a reference layer in a trench reached 2.83 m, and the maximum dip displacement measured in a single fracture was 0.5 m. The earthquake was generated by the Delta Fault that dips at 60° on average to the northwest.The distribution of quantitative parameters of brittle and brittle-plastic deformation has been analyzed along two profiles, and two new parameters were introduced: indices of mean intensity (I) of clastic dikes and microdikes; the new parameters were calculated by specially developed equations. Summation of significant peaks in all parameters (SUMspp) allowed contouring the zone of most intense soft-sediment deformation near Dubinino Village.Deformation mostly propagated in the NE–SW and N–S directions. The location of the 1862 Tsagan earthquake at 52.35° N and 106.67° E was inferred from the SUMspp value taking into account the dip of the causative fault plane and the average origin depth of earthquakes in the Baikal rift. The approach we used is applicable to locating preinstrumental events.The recurrence of large earthquakes in the area of Proval Bay (Lake Baikal) has been estimated to be 1120–1230 years proceeding from alternating deformed and undeformed sediments in the sections, their thicknesses and deposition rates according to radiocarbon dating. The seismic activity has been associated with the same fault which can generate M ≥ 7 events.

Ocean loading effects on stress at near shore plate boundary fault systems

Changes in eustatic sea level since the Last Glacial Maximum create a differential load across coastlines globally. The resulting plate bending in response to this load alters the state of stress within the lithosphere within a half flexural wavelength of the coast. We calculate the perturbation to the total stress tensor due to ocean loading in coastal regions. Our stress calculation is fully 3‐D and makes use of a semianalytic model to efficiently calculate stresses within a thick elastic plate overlying a viscoelastic or fluid half‐space. The 3‐D stress perturbation is resolved into normal and shear stresses on plate boundary fault planes of known orientation so that Coulomb stress perturbations can be calculated. In the absence of complete paleoseismic indicators that span the time since the Last Glacial Maximum, we investigate the possibility that the seismic cycle of coastal plate boundary faults was affected by stress perturbations due to the change in sea level. Coulomb stress on onshore transform faults, such as the San Andreas and Alpine faults, is increased by up to 1–1.5 MPa, respectively, promoting failure primarily through a reduction in normal stress. These stress perturbations may perceptibly alter the seismic cycle of major plate boundary faults, but such effects are more likely to be observed on nearby secondary faults with a lower tectonic stress accumulation rate. In the specific instance of rapid sea level rise at the Black Sea, the seismic cycle of the nearby North Anatolian fault was likely significantly advanced.

Prehistoric earthquake history revealed by lacustrine slump deposits

Five strong paleoseismic events were recorded in the past 15 k.y. in a series of slump deposits in the subsurface of Lake Lucerne, central Switzerland, revealing for the first time the paleoseismic history of one of the most seismically active areas in central Europe. Although many slump deposits in marine and lacustrine environments were previously attributed to historic earthquakes, the lack of detailed three-dimensional stratigraphic correlation in combination with accurate dating hampered the use of multiple slump deposits as paleoseismic indicators. This study investigated the fingerprint of the well-described A.D. 1601 earthquake (I = VII–VIII, Mw ∼ 6.2) in the sediments of Lake Lucerne. The earthquake triggered numerous synchronous slumps and megaturbidites within different subbasins of the lake, producing a characteristic pattern that can be used to assign a seismic triggering mechanism to prehistoric slump events. For each seismic event horizon, the slump synchronicity was established by seismic-stratigraphic correlation between individual slump deposits through a quasi-three-dimensional high-resolution seismic survey grid. Four prehistoric events, dated by accelerator mass spectrometry, 14C measurements, and tephrochronology on a series of long gravity cores, occurred at 2420, 9770, 13,910, and 14,560 calendar yr ago. These recurrence times are essential factors for assessing seismic hazard in the area. The seismic hazard for lakeshore communities is additionally amplified by slump-induced tsunami and seiche waves. Numerical modeling of such tsunami waves revealed wave heights to 3 m, indicating tsunami risk in lacustrine environments.

Paleoseismic indicators near Bluffton, South Carolina: An appraisal of their tectonic implications

Radiocarbon dating of paleoliquefaction features near Bluffton in Beaufort County, South Carolina, indicates a likelihood of four prehistoric seismic events that occurred at 500 ±180, 1180 ±220, 2355 ±365, and 3355 ±485 yr B.P. Among these, the 500 ±180 and 2355 ±365 yr B.P. events appear to have originated near Bluffton, outside of the currently active Charleston seismic source zone. Association of these two events with a local source near Bluffton conflicts with the idea of periodic activation of a single seismic source near Charleston. The felt shocks of 1826, 1903, and 1912, reported from ∼20 km south of the paleoliquefaction sites, and a small earthquake on January 1989 located near Bluffton indicate that this area has been moderately active in historic times. Releveling data have identified an ∼30-km-long zone of uplift in the area. Stratigraphic data indicate the presence of an east-trending buried fault in the vicinity. These observations imply the presence of an additional seismic source zone in the South Carolina coastal plain, near Bluffton.

Crystalline rocks as possible paleoseismicity indicators

A granite body in northern New Brunswick, cropping out at the epicenter of a recent sizable earthquake, has a distinctive assemblage of microstructures. Optical and transmission electron microscopy demonstrate a sequence of microstructural development from ductile through transitional into brittle regimes. Overprinting relationships of later (transitional to brittle) features are due to periodic formation of extensive microfracture arrays that are healed by mineral precipitation from circulating pore fluids and therefore are able to be fractured at a later time. These structures are possible paleoseismic indicators. 7 references, 3 figures.