Pakistan Institute Of Development Economics Research Articles

PIDE Commentary: On the 23rd IMF Programme for Pakistan


 
 
 
 
 International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a staff report on the seventh and eighth reviews of the extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) on September 1, 2022. As per the review report, the authorities of Pakistan are allowed to draw USD 1.1 billion, keeping in view the measures taken by authorities to address fiscal and external challenges. The IMF board has also approved the extension of the EFF till June 2023 along with extra Special Drawing Rights (SDR) of 720 million and that brings the total access under the EFF to about USD 6.5 billion. The review report has also identified some priority measures to be considered by the Pakistani authorities, such as the implementation of an approved budget, marketdetermined exchange rate policy, proactive and prudent monetary policy, the expansion of the social safety net, and structural reforms related to the performance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and governance. The set of measures that have been identified contains both short-term and medium-term measures to promote long-term growth. In this regard, the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) has also been working extensively to identify the measures that are necessary to remove the bottlenecks in the economy to improve productivity and increase growth. Therefore, the objective of this document is twofold, i.e., a commentary on the measures suggested by the review report, and what other measures should be part of the programme.
 
 
 
 

Inaugural Address

Ladies and Gentlemen: It is my pleasure and honour to address the distinguished gathering of economists, social scientists, intellectuals and renowned personalities from within and outside the country on the occasion of the 19th Annual General Meeting of the Society. This has become an important event in Pakistan where economists and social scientists sit together and deliberate on various issues facing developing economies in general and Pakistan’s economy in particular. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) deserves our appreciation for holding such a conference on a regular basis. In fact, I have been using this platform for the last four years to apprise the nation about the progress we have been making on the economic front and about the policies we have been pursuing. I intend to do the same today.

PIDE-LUMS Seminar on the New Governance Effort

Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) and Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) jointly organised a seminar to discuss issues pertaining to “Law and Economics” and “Public Choice”, and their relevance for the future growth prospects of Pakistan. Dr Nadeem Ul Haque, Director, PIDE, and Osama Siddique, Head, Department of Law and Policy, LUMS, highlighted the main issues in their welcome remarks, and raised some basic questions: Can Pakistan achieve its growth target of 10 percent under the current legal framework? Does our law support free enterprise? Can the dual target of growth and free enterprise development be realised under our existing constitution? Do we need to review and make amendments to it? The high point of the meeting was the coming together of eminent lawyers and economists (and social scientists) on one forum and approaching the problem from a multidisciplinary point of view. A healthy debate followed in which some of our distinguished participants even turned the debate upside down by posing question as to what form of economic system are we hoping for. The main issues that emerged out of this deliberation are summarised below.

Environment and Natural Resource Management (The Presidential Address)

Engr. Dr. M. Akram Sheikh, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission of Pakistan. Past Presidents of the Pakistan Society of Development Economists, Distinguished participants to the 23rd Annual Conference and General Meeting of the Society. Ladies and Gentlemen: It is indeed an honour and privilege for me to deliver the Presidential address at this prestigious forum. I am very well aware of my distinguished predecessors who have served as Presidents of this Society and I hope that I can during my tenure do justice to this responsibility. As you perhaps know yesterday we held the first Convocation of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics and in the afternoon we launched the Golden Jubilee Celebrations to mark fifty years of its existence. I am sure that given the high regard and esteem with which we all hold the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, members of the Society will share in the pride that we all feel on the award of 10 PhDs and one MPhil to students of the Institute and also join me in congratulating the Institute on the occasion of its Golden Jubilee. The plans are to hold the Golden Jubilee Celebrations in different parts of the country and we look forward to your active participation in these events.

Inaugural Address

Dr Ishfaq Ahmad, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, Dr Rashid Amjad, President, Pakistan Society of Development Economists, Dr G. M. Arif, Secretary Pakistan Society of Development Economists, Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen! It is indeed a privilege and honour to address this distinguished gathering of economists and social scientists. Over the years the Annual Conference of the Pakistan Society of Development Economists has become one of the leading events on the calendar of meetings where experts from various disciplines discuss cutting edge issues that confront developing economies in general and Pakistan’s economy in particular. I want to especially congratulate the Society and the President on completing 25 years as it celebrates its Silver Jubilee. I am very happy that the founding President, Prof. Dr Nawab Haider Naqvi is with us today and that some of the past Presidents are also present. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, the home of the Society, also needs to be congratulated for holding such conferences on an annual and regular basis. I am very happy that this meeting as in the past is being attended by internationally acclaimed economists and academics from both within and outside the country. I am especially heartened to see that students of economics from all over Pakistan have been especially invited to attend this meeting.

Inaugural Address

Sardar Aseff Ahmad Ali, Deputy Chairman, Planning Commission, Dr Rashid Amjad, President, Pakistan Society of Development Economists, Honourable Ministers, Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen! It is indeed a privilege and honour to address this distinguished gathering of economists. I am very happy that this meeting is being attended by internationally acclaimed economists and academics from both within and outside the country. I am especially heartened to see that students of economics from all over Pakistan have been especially invited to attend this meeting. Over the years the Annual Conference of the Pakistan Society of Development Economists has become one of the leading events on the calendar of meetings where experts from various disciplines discuss cutting edge issues that confront developing economies in general and Pakistan’s economy in particular. The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics is to be congratulated for holding such conferences on an annual and regular basis. The President of the Society has mentioned that I have actively encouraged the participation of economic experts, academics and researchers in the policy planning process. I firmly believe that this interaction will lead to framing of economic policies that respond to our economic needs and lead to more sustainable and equitable economic growth. I will continue to involve our body of economists in formulating policies and thank you for your offer to work closely with our government. The theme of this year’s Meeting “Economic Sustainability in a Globalised World” is very timely and touches the very heart of the economic challenge we face at the global and national level. The world has witnessed a global financial meltdown which started in the USA but spread to other parts of the world, both developed and developing. This financial crisis has now hit the real economy, causing a massive decline in global manufacturing output and global trade which is the worst since the Great Depression in 1929. World output is projected to shrink in 2009 and world trade expected to decline markedly this year.

Sustainable Incubator Management—A Case Study for Pakistan.

Information technology (IT) is impacting all spheres of human activity at an unprecedented rate. Parallel to this development, there is also an intense debate on the contribution of this technology towards productivity and growth on the one hand, and human welfare on the other, in developed and developing countries. The “Technology Based Industrial Vision and Strategy for Pakistan’s Socio Economic Development” commissioned by the Higher Education Commission (HEC) and the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) lays out guidelines on how to make Pakistan an economically stable and technologically advanced ‘knowledge economy’. Based on recommendations from this document, the Government of Pakistan (GoP) has made investments in infrastructure and human resource development. Sites have been allocated for IT campuses and human resources sent abroad for training. With these trained IT and engineering personnel now returning to the country, plans are underway to develop what USAID1 calls “centres of excellence, commercial research centres…or to be more concise, incubator centres.” In order to fully utilise the potential of these centres and to establish stronger networking with the universities from where these trained personnel are returning, the concept of “incubator programmes” has been floated to facilitate technology commercialisation. Although the incubator phenomenon was conceived in the 1950s, it only mushroomed rapidly in North America in the 1980s. Today, even though America has the largest number of incubator facilities in the world, most have failed to produce desired results, primarily due to poor management and lack of clear vision. This paper focuses on the development of a sustainable blue print for incubator programmes in Pakistan through proactive management and enterprise development. This model would integrate faculty, students, laboratory resources, research facilities and strategically align the objectives of these entities with the industry. Such programmes have the potential to make Pakistani students globally competitive and also diversify the income resources of incubators, hence making them less dependent upon subsidies and acting as true platforms of technological entrepreneurship, small and medium enterprises, which are considered the drivers of knowledge based economies. JEL classification: O32, H42, L15, I23 Keywords: Innovation, Technology, Public Economics

Perception Survey of Civil Servants: A Preliminary Report

Despite various attempts at reforming the civil services the common perception seems to be that the system essentially remains similar to that inherited from the colonial past. Worse still, little is known about the perceptions of civil servants on various issues in civil service reforms. Against this backdrop, the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics conducted a perception survey of civil servants seeking their views on recruitment, training, performance evaluation, job satisfaction, and relationship with the private sector. This preliminary report highlights the key findings of the survey. Section 2 sets out the survey methodology. Sections 3 to 7 respectively highlight the survey findings with respect to recruitment, postings and training, performance evaluation, job satisfaction, bureaucracy, private sector, and institutions and reforms.

Factors Determining Political Socialization in Young People (A Case of Pakistani University Students)

Factors Determining Political Socialization in Young People (A Case of Pakistani University Students) by Salita * and Khoula Maryam Department of Economics, Pakistan Institute of development Economics, Islamabad, 45320, Pakistan * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed. Journal of Engineering Research and Sciences, Volume 1, Issue 4, Page # 54-61, 2022; DOI: 10.55708/js0104007 Keywords:

Doing Taxes Better: Analysing the PSDP

The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) organised a conference on the development policy of Pakistan with a focus on planning and public investment policy. At the Conference, a PIDE study entitled, Doing Development Better1 was launched and discussed. The key findings of the conference are listed below:

Women’s Perception of Climate Change and Coping Strategies in Pakistan: An Empirical Evidence

This paper examines the women’s perception about climate change and coping strategies in response to climate-related shocks in Pakistan. It is among the ten countries that have been affected most by climate change. There is no denying the fact that climate change is bringing miseries for the vulnerable population particularly for the rural women. The study used the Treatment Effect Model to evaluate the determinants of women’s perception and adoption of coping strategies using data from Climate Change Impact Survey (PIDE 2013). Secondary data of 3298 rural households in Punjab, Sindh and KPK as provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (2013) were utilized to conduct this research. The results of this study demonstrate that age, education, farming experience, land rights, women empowerment, livestock ownership and change in rainfall are crucial factors for women’s coping strategies to avoid the adverse effect of climate change. There is dire need to raise awareness about climate change in women and provide credit facilities for undertaking adaptation measures, encourage informal social networks and enhance women capacity to climate change.

Gender Beliefs and Action Tendencies for Women’s Rights: Impact of National vis-à-vis International Policy Recommendations

In most democratic developing countries, including Pakistan, a crucial and still least prioritised domain is reforms in the status of women’s rights. As reflected in the rankings provided by The Gender Gap Index Report (World Economic Forum 2016), Pakistan stands second from the bottom among 144 countries. There are many organisations and programmes at the international and national level that are trying to influence the challenged countries to improve women’s rights policies and practices including the United Nations’ Convention on the Elimination of all forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW); Pakistan’s commitment to meeting the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs); and, the National Commission on the Status of Women (NCSW). The impact of national and international endorsement of the policies intended to improve women’s rights in Pakistan was explored in this survey. The survey was designed to see under which conditions, respondents would support policies focusing on women’s rights. The two conditions in the experiment were framed as such that the proposed reforms came from the National Government (national condition) or by the United Nations (international condition). As a comparative baseline, a control condition was added in which the source of proposals was not mentioned (control condition). The survey was conducted with 619 university students (males: 51%; females: 49 %). Data was collected from the students of the Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad; and, the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, from March through August 2016. Results of the study indicated that compared to the control condition, the respondents in the national and international condition expressed higher support for policy reforms for women’s rights. Furthermore, participants in the national and international condition were more likely to offer help in the implementation of these policy reforms. At the policy level, the survey supported the claim that national level endorsement of the reforms, compared to the United Nations endorsement, makes propagation and acceptance of the women’s rights reforms easier for the general public.

Inaugural Address

President Pakistan Society of Development Economists (PSDE) and Vice Chancellor of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) Dr Asad Zaman, Secretary Planning, Secretary PSDE, distinguished economists, eminent scholars from overseas, and young economists of Pakistan. Ladies and gentlemen, it is indeed a great honour and privilege for me to be the chief guest at the opening ceremony of the 31st Annual General Meeting and Conference of Pakistan Society of Development Economists. I happen to be a teacher as well as the politician, so, I promise you to be succinct while inaugurating the Conference. It is a matter of great pride to acknowledge that the tradition initiated by the Society in 1982 continues with great strength. All credit goes to Prof. Nawab Haider Naqvi, one of the founding fathers of this tradition. It is also a tribute to the sincerity of those who are keeping this tradition alive. I hope this tradition of knowledge sharing and intellectual debate will be of practical benefit to the development journey of Pakistan. I am sure that it will go on uninterrupted in future as well, and through such platforms we will be getting new ideas and solutions to our problems. Allama Iqbal also penned down such thoughts:

Food Demand in Pakistan

This study analyzes the household food demand followed by projecting the future level of demand of selected food commodity groups in Pakistan. It uses Pakistan Panel Household Survey (PPHS) for the year 2010, conducted by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE). The linear approximation/almost ideal demand system (LA/AIDS) model is used to estimate the demand elasticities, while a simple growth model is used for food demand projections. The empirical results reveal that food grains, pulses, ghee, sugar and vegetables are necessities, while milk and meat are luxuries. Pulses and vegetables, ghee and meat, milk and sugar are identified as gross complements on the basis of uncompensated cross-price elasticities. The uncompensated cross-price elasticities of food grains indicate the substitutive relationship between different food items, such as pulses, meat and vegetables. An increase in the household income will induce a substantial expansion in household demand for milk and meat products, but the consumption of these foods will decline if household size grew, ceteris paribus.

Keynote Address

Mr Hasan Nawaz Tarar, Secretary Planning, Development and Reforms, Dr Asad Zaman, Dr Musleh ud Din, distinguished economists, members of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) and the Pakistan Society of Development Economists, students, ladies and gentleman, it is indeed a great honour and privilege for me to open the PSDE’s Conference, which has become an annual feature of the Pakistan Society of Development Economists. It offers us a great opportunity to deliberate on the challenges that our country is facing. Before I proceed with what I have to say, I would like to place on record my appreciation for the outgoialso ng Vice Chancellor of PIDE, Dr Musleh ud Din, who has provided leadership to PIDE and has been instrumental in arranging this Conference. I would also like to welcome Dr Asad Zaman as the new President of the PSDE and Vice Chancellor of PIDE. I hope that under his leadership PIDE will touch, In šāʾ Allāh, new heights and become a centre of excellence, not only in Pakistan but also in Asia. Being in a meeting of economists and a leading public sector economic think tank, I am reminded of an anecdote about an economist. A man was walking by a road in countryside where he saw a flock of sheep. He could not resist and said to the shepherd that he would like to make a bet on correctly guessing the number of sheep in the flock. He said to the shepherd that he would give him a hundred dollars if he were unable to guess correctly the exact number of sheep. But if he were right, the shepherd would give him one sheep from the flock. Shepherd thought that it was a huge flock, this person had to be crazy, so it was an easy hundred dollars and accepted the bet. Within a few minutes, the man said that these were nine hundred and eighty one sheep. The shepherd was surprised because the man was exactly right. He said he was man of his word and told the man to pick up any of the sheep. The man picked up a sheep and started to walk away. As he was walking away, the shepherd said he wanted to get even with the man and asked him to make another bet. He said that he could tell him exactly what his occupation was, to which the man agreed. He was from a far off place and thought there was no way the shepherd could guess his profession. The shepherd asked him if he were an economist from a government think tank. The man was greatly surprised because the shepherd was right. He asked the shepherd how was he able to guess his profession. The shepherd asked him to put down his dog first. The man had picked up shepherd’s dog instead of a sheep! I hope it is not the case here and hopefully we have economists who can not only count the sheep exactly but who can also pick sheep from the flock and not a dog.

Inaugural Address

Dr Rashid Amjad, President Pakistan Society of Development Economists and Vice-Chancellor PIDE, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, it gives me great pleasure to address the 27th Annual General Meeting and Conference of the Pakistan Society of Development Economists (PSDE). I am pleased to note that the Society has been instrumental in promoting scholarly research and debate on critical socio-economic issues facing Pakistan, and that the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) has played a vital role in promoting and nurturing the Society since its inception in 1982. The Society has not only upheld and galvanized the profession of development economics in Pakistan but has also helped inspire new ideas for the greater development and prosperity of Pakistan. Ladies and gentlemen, I am happy to see that when I address you today Pakistan's economy is again showing distinct signs of recovery and we hope to achieve a growth rate of 4 to 5 percent this year which should help lift us to a much higher growth trajectory in the future. Despite the heavy headwinds that we have had to face, our government took important fundamental economic decisions of which we can be justly proud.

Reminiscing the PIDE (Honouring Prof. A. R. Khan)

I first arrived at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, then simply the Institute of Development Economics, at the beginning of October 1960. It was located on the top floor of the Old Sindh Assembly Building on Bunder Road in Karachi. At the time the Joint Director, the resident head of the Institute, was Irving Brecher, a Canadian economist. The Director of the Institute was Emile Despres, the ex-officio head of Ford Foundation’s Pakistan Project administered from Williams College, later from Stanford University, who spent only a few weeks each year at the Institute. The Institute had a number of foreign research advisers funded by the Ford Foundation Project and a handful of Pakistani staff members, very few of them at senior levels. For me the Institute was a refuge. Since my graduation from the Dhaka University at the end of 1959 I had been teaching in the Department of Economics. I had also been selected for graduate studies in England starting the fall of 1960 under an award of the newly-instituted Commonwealth Scholarship programme. In July 1960 I was dismissed from my teaching position at the University due to alleged undesirable political antecedents during my student days. A few weeks later my scholarship for study abroad was also withdrawn by the Government of Pakistan whose approval was a prerequisite for the finalisation of the award. The prospect of alternative employment was bleak with little private sector demand for economics graduates at the time. I had been interviewed by Emile Despres and his colleagues who were on a recruitment mission the previous winter in Dhaka. The teaching appointment at the University, coming on the heels of the interview, had preempted a possible offer from them. A few weeks after I lost my scholarship, I received a telegram from the Institute offering me the position of a Research Officer (later named Staff Economist). This rescued me from what appeared to be virtual banishment from all possibility of a meaningful career. This was the beginning of the series of many kind acts by the Institute and its members which over time made me accustomed to treating it as a home even after my formal employment in it ended.

Does the Labor Market Structure Explain Differences in Poverty in Rural Punjab?

The main focus of this study is Rural Punjab and it contributes to regional poverty research in two ways; first, using a more recent household survey data, carried out in August 2007 by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), it provides fresh poverty estimates for the rural areas of the Punjab. Second, the poverty differential across the agroclimatic zones of Punjab have been explained by urbanization, overseas migration and the labor market structure operating in these zones. This study shows four major factors that explain inequalities in poverty levels. First, the rural areas of two zones, barani and rice/wheat, are well integrated with urban settings. This integration has allowed their rural populations to work in the industrial sector of Central Punjab and the services sector in North Punjab primarily Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Second, the belt from Lahore to Attock in the Punjab has benefited the most from overseas migration. The flow of remittances has helped in reducing poverty levels. Third, the cotton/wheat and low intensity zone still largely depend for employment on the agricultural sector while this dependency is very low in the barani zone, which has good opportunity to seek job opportunities for its labor force in the armed services and government departments. Finally, demographic and social factors including education are less favorable in the cotton/wheat and low intensity zones which negatively impacts on a breakthrough in poverty reduction.

OBITUARY------------Sultan S. Hashmi (1921-2000)

Dr Sultan S. Hashmi, renowned demographer and a senior colleague at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, passed away on August 31, 2000. His loss is deeply felt by PIDE and the entire community of social scientists in Pakistan. Dr Hashmi introduced demography as a discipline at PIDE, and then through it in Pakistan. He successfully applied his energies to raising the standards of demographic research as well as securing USAID endowment funds to support and sustain it. Many demographers of international repute, and certainly those working currently in Pakistan, owe much to his patronage, guidance, and encouragement.

Inaugural Address

Dr Sarfraz Khan Qureshi, Director of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is a great pleasure for me to be present here this morning. Over the years, the Pakistan Society of Development Economists has made notable contributions to the profession of Economics and Planning. It has also helped to strengthen the evolution of scientific knowledge in Development Economics. More importantly, it has given an institutional shape to the exchange of ideas between economists, other social scientists, and policy-makers. I am happy to note that a large number of distinguished academics and policy-makers from all over the world regularly participate in the Society’s meetings. I earnestly hope that useful policy prescriptions will emerge from the deliberations that take place here about the major issues in economy. Indeed, I wish to extend my appreciation to the Society for providing a lively and effective platform both to researchers and policy-makers.